Buscar

Apostila Teoria da Decisão

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes
Você viu 3, do total de 75 páginas

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes
Você viu 6, do total de 75 páginas

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes
Você viu 9, do total de 75 páginas

Faça como milhares de estudantes: teste grátis o Passei Direto

Esse e outros conteúdos desbloqueados

16 milhões de materiais de várias disciplinas

Impressão de materiais

Agora você pode testar o

Passei Direto grátis

Você também pode ser Premium ajudando estudantes

Prévia do material em texto

GRADUAÇÃO
 2015.1
3ª EDIÇÃO
teoria da decisão
AUTOR: LUÍS FERNANDO SCHUARTZ
Sumário
Introdução à Teoria da Decisão
1. INTRODUÇÃO ............................................................................................................................................................................ 04
2. AULA 1 - O DIREITO E AS SUAS CONSEQÜÊNCIAS .......................................................................................................................... 05
3. AULA 2 - DISCUSSÃO DO CASO “GROOT BOOM” ............................................................................................................................. 18
4. AULA 3 - ELEMENTOS DE TEORIA DA DECISÃO .............................................................................................................................. 33
5. AULAS 4-5 - DECISÕES SOB INCERTEZA ........................................................................................................................................ 37
6. AULAS 6-7 - DA DECISÃO INDIVIDUAL À DECISÃO INTERATIVA ....................................................................................................... 43
7. AULAS 8-9 - SOLUÇÃO DE JOGOS NA FORMA NORMAL: DOMINÂNCIA E EQUILÍBRIO DE NASH ........................................................... 51
8. AULA 10. EQUILÍBRIO DE NASH PERFEITO EM SUBJOGOS .............................................................................................................. 55
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 33FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
3FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
��\�2/4%)2/
&TUF�DVSTP�Ï�VNB�JOUSPEVÎÍP�JOGPSNBM�Ë�UFPSJB�EPT�KPHPT�	WBMF�EJ[FS
�BP�FTUVEP�NFUØEJDP�EF�JOUFSBÎÜFT�DBSBDUFSJ[BEBT�
QFMB�JOUFSEFQFOEÐODJB�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�EF�TFVT�QBSUJDJQBOUFT
�EJSFDJPOBEB�B�FTUVEBOUFT�EF�HSBEVBÎÍP�FN�%JSFJUP��0�PCKFUJWP�
EP�DVSTP�Ï�BQSFTFOUBS�BT�OPÎÜFT�CÈTJDBT�F�BMHVOT�NPEFMPT�TJNQMFT�VUJMJ[BEPT�FN�UFPSJB�EPT�KPHPT
�GBNJMJBSJ[BOEP�PT�BMVOPT�
DPN�UÏDOJDBT�F�JOTUSVNFOUPT�EF�TPMVÎÍP�EF�QSPCMFNBT�EF�EFDJTÍP�QBSB�VTP�OB�EFTDSJÎÍP�F�BOÈMJTF�EF�TJUVBÎÜFT�KVSJEJDBNFO�
UF�SFMFWBOUFT��
&YFNQMPT� FTQFDÓmDPT�VUJMJ[BEPT�OP� DVSTP� FOWPMWFSÍP� DPODFJUPT� KVSÓEJDPT�EF� DPNQSFFOTÍP� SFMBUJWBNFOUF� JOUVJUJWB
�
DPNP�P�DPODFJUP�EF�DPOUSBUP�F�P�DPODFJUP�EF�SFTQPOTBCJMJEBEF��4FSÍP�VTBEPT�UBNCÏN�WÈSJPT�FYFNQMPT�EF�BQMJDBÎÜFT�EB�
UFPSJB�B�SFMBÎÜFT�FDPOÙNJDBT
�QPMÓUJDBT�PV�NFTNP�QFTTPBJT
�B�mN�EF�JMVTUSBS�P�BMDBODF�F�P�HSBV�EF�HFOFSBMJEBEF�EBT�JEÏJBT�F�
EPT�NPEFMPT�JOUSPEV[JEPT��0�DVSTP�QSFUFOEF�BNQMJBS
�UBOUP�FN�FYUFOTÍP�DPNP�FN�QSPGVOEJEBEF
�P�RVF�PT�BMVOPT�KÈ�UFSÍP�
WJTUP�B�SFTQFJUP�EP�BTTVOUP�OP�ÉNCJUP�EP�DVSTP�EF�.JDSPFDPOPNJB�
5SBUBOEP�TF�EF�VN�DVSTP�JOUSPEVUØSJP�F�EF�VNB�BCPSEBHFN�JOGPSNBM
�EBS�TF�È�ÐOGBTF�B�NÏUPEPT�F�UÏDOJDBT�EF�FOTJOP�
RVF�JOEV[BN�VNB�DPOTUSVÎÍP�QSPHSFTTJWB�EF�DPODFJUPT�	QSFGFSFODJBMNFOUF
�QPS�NFJP�EF�FYFNQMPT�TJNQMFT
�CFN�DPNP�P�
EFTFOWPMWJNFOUP
�OPT�BMVOPT
�EB�DBQBDJEBEF�EF�SBDJPDJOBS�FTUSBUFHJDBNFOUF�	F�OÍP�o�QSJNBSJBNFOUF�o�EB�DBQBDJEBEF�EF�
UFPSJ[BS�B�SFTQFJUP�EF�JOUFSBÎÜFT�FTUSBUÏHJDBT
��"MÏN�EBT�USBEJDJPOBJT�BVMBT�FYQPTJUJWBT�F�EP�SPMF�QMBZ
�P�DVSTP�UBNCÏN�DPOUB�
SÈ�DPN�BVMBT�EFEJDBEBT�Ë�SFBMJ[BÎÍP�EF�iFYQFSJNFOUPTw
�WBMF�EJ[FS
�FYFSDÓDJPT�EF�TJNVMBÎÍP�EF�QSPCMFNBT�EF�EFDJTÍP�JOUFSB�
UJWB�	B�'(7�QPTTVJ�VN�MBCPSBUØSJP�FTQFDJBMNFOUF�FRVJQBEP�QBSB�FTTFT�mOT
���/P�NFTNP�TFOUJEP
�BT�FYJHÐODJBT�QSÏWJBT�FN�
UFSNPT�EF�DBQBDJEBEF�MØHJDB�F�EF�BCTUSBÎÍP�F
�QSJODJQBMNFOUF
�DPOIFDJNFOUP�NBUFNÈUJDP
�TFSÍP�BT�NÓOJNBT�QPTTÓWFJT�
0�DVSTP�QSFWÐ�BT�TFHVJOUFT�GPSNBT�EF�BWBMJBÎÍP��	EVBT
�QSPWBT�FTDSJUBT�F�FYFSDÓDJPT��"�OPUB�mOBM�	/'
�TFSÈ�JHVBM�Ë�NÏEJB�
QPOEFSBEB�FOUSF�BT�QSPWBT
�1
�
�F�1
�
�	DBEB�VNB�DPN�QFTP�JHVBM�B��
�F�B�NÏEJB�BSJUNÏUJDB�	.&
�EBT�OPUBT�EF�FYFSDÓDJPT�	DPN�
QFTP�JHVBM�B��
�PV�TFKB�
�
0�DPOUFÞEP�EBT�BVMBT�F�P�NBUFSJBM�EJEÈUJDP�SFMBUJWPT�Ë�EJTDJQMJOB�GPSBN�FMBCPSBEPT�EF�NPEP�B�RVF�P�BQSPWFJUBNFOUP�
TBUJTGBUØSJP�EP�DVSTP�QFMPT�BMVOPT�JOEFQFOEB
�FN�HSBOEF�NFEJEB
�EP�SFDVSTP�B�PVUSBT�GPOUFT�EF�JOGPSNBÎÍP�o�TPCSFUVEP
�
�MJUFSBUVSB�FTQFDJBMJ[BEB�FN�UFPSJB�EPT�KPHPT
�FN�SFHSB�EF�NVJUP�EJGÓDJM�BDFTTP�B�QFTTPBT�TFN�BMHVNB�GPSNBÎÍP�NBUFNÈ�
UJDB��0T�BMVOPT�NBJT�JOUFSFTTBEPT
�OÍP�PCTUBOUF
�QPEFSÍP�CFOFmDJBS�TF�EB�MFJUVSB�BEJDJPOBM�EF�EPJT�MJWSPT�JOUSPEVUØSJPT��
iDzJOLJOH�4USBUFHJDBMMZ��DzF�$PNQFUJUJWF�&EHF�JO�#VTJOFTT
�1PMJUJDT�BOE�&WFSZEBZ�-JGFw
�EF�"WJOBTI�%JYJU�F�#BSSZ�/BMFCVĊ�	IÈ�
USBEVÎÍP�CSBTJMFJSB
�EJTQPOÓWFM�OB�CJCMJPUFDB�EB�'(7
�F�i4USBUFHZ��"O�*OUSPEVDUJPO�UP�(BNF�DzFPSZw
�EF�+PFM�8BUTPO��
/'���	1��1�
���.&
� ����������
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 44FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
4FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
��\�!5,!��
0�%JSFJUP�F�BT�TVBT�$POTFRàÐODJBT�
0�PCKFUJWP�EFTUF�DVSTP��BQSFTFOUBS
�EF�GPSNB�NFUØEJDB
�VN�KFJUP�EJGFSFOUF�EF�PMIBS�P�%JSFJUP�	BT�OPSNBT�
KVSÓEJDBT
�B�TBCFS
�P�PMIBS�B�QBSUJS�EF�TVBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT��)È�WÈSJBT�SB[ÜFT�QBSB�RVFSFSNPT�JTTP��"MHVNBT�TÍP�EF�
OBUVSF[B�FYUFSOB�BP�%JSFJUP
�DPNP�QPS�FYFNQMP
�PDPSSF�RVBOEP�VN�QPMÓUJDP�DSJUJDB�VNB�EFUFSNJOBEB�OPSNB�EP�
$ØEJHP�1FOBM�QPS�OÍP�TFS�FmDB[�OP�DPNCBUF�B�VN�DFSUP�DSJNF
�QBSB�QSPQPS�FN�TFV�MVHBS�VN�QSPKFUP�EF�MFJ�EF�
TVB�BVUPSJB�RVF�TVQPTUBNFOUF�SFTPMWF�P�QSPCMFNB��PV�RVBOEP�VN�FDPOPNJTUB�SFDMBNB�VNB�BMUFSBÎÍP�EF�QBSUF�EP�
$ØEJHP�EF�1SPDFTTP�$JWJM�DPNP�VNB�NFEJEB�OFDFTTÈSJB�QBSB�NFMIPSBS�B�QFSGPSNBODF�EP�1PEFS�+VEJDJÈSJP�F
�QPS�
FTTF�DBNJOIP
�DPOUSJCVJS�QBSB�P�EFTFOWPMWJNFOUP�FDPOÙNJDP�EP�1BÓT���
"T�PVUSBT�SB[ÜFT�QBSB�RVFSFSNPT�FTUVEBS�BT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�TÍP�EF�OBUVSF[B� JOUFSOB�BP�
%JSFJUP��1PSUBOUP
�P�%JSFJUP�CSBTJMFJSP�FTUÈ�SFQMFUP�EF�OPSNBT�RVF�UÐN�B�FTUSVUVSB�EF�QSFTDSJÎÜFT�EF�PCKFUJWPT
�J�F�
�
EF�NBOEBNFOUPT
�OPSNBMNFOUF�EJSFDJPOBEPT�B�ØSHÍPT�EP�QPEFS�QÞCMJDP�	FN�HFSBM
�NFNCSPT�EP�1PEFS�&YFDV�
UJWP
�NBT�UBNCÏN�EP�1PEFS�+VEJDJÈSJP
�RVF�QSFTDSFWFN�B�SFBMJ[BÎÍP�EF�DFSUBT�mOBMJEBEFT
�DPNP�QPS�FYFNQMP
�P�
iCFN�EF�UPEPTw
�B�iKVTUJÎB�TPDJBMw�FUD��0�BSU����EB�i-FJ�EF�*OUSPEVÎÍP�BP�$ØEJHP�$JWJMw�	-FJ������
�EF�����
�
JMVTUSBUJWBNFOUF
�BmSNB�RVF�iOB�BQMJDBÎÍP�EB�MFJ
�P�KVJ[�BUFOEFSÈ�BPT�mOT�TPDJBJT�B�RVF�FMB�TF�EJSJHF�F�ËT�FYJHÐODJBT�
EP�CFN�DPNVNw��P�BSU������EB�$POTUJUVJÎÍP�EF������FTUBCFMFDF�RVF�B�iPSEFN�TPDJBM�UFN�DPNP�CBTF�P�QSJNBEP�
EP�USBCBMIP
�F�DPNP�PCKFUJWP�P�CFN�FTUBS�F�B�KVTUJÎB�TPDJBJTw�FUD��
/FTUFT�DBTPT
�VNB�BOÈMJTF�NFUØEJDB�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�VNB�EFDJTÍP�KVEJDJBM�RVF�BQMJDB�VNB�EFUFSNJOBEB�
OPSNB�EF�EJSFJUP�DJWJM�	QPS�FYFNQMP
�VNB�OPSNB�RVF�EJTQÜF�TPCSF�P�DVNQSJNFOUP�EF�VN�DPOUSBUP�PV�B�SFT�
QPOTBCJMJEBEF�EF�BMHVÏN�OP�DBTP�EF�VN�BDJEFOUF
�PV�BT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�VN�BUP�OPSNBUJWP�EP�NJOJTUSP�EB�
1SFWJEÐODJB�4PDJBM
�Ï�FTTFODJBM�QBSB�TBCFSNPT�TF�B�EFDJTÍP�PV�P�BUP�OPSNBUJWP�FN�RVFTUÍP�EF�GBUP�TFSWFN�QBSB�JN�
QMFNFOUBS�B�mOBMJEBEF�PV�P�PCKFUJWP�RVF�EFWFSJBN
�KVSJEJDBNFOUF
�JNQMFNFOUBS��%F�GPSNB�EJWFSTB�BP�RVF�PDPSSF�
OP�DBTP�EBT�SB[ÜFT�NFSBNFOUF�FYUFSOBT
�BHPSB�B�BOÈMJTF�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�FTUÈ�B�TFSWJÎP�EF�VN�KVÓ[P�BDFSDB�EB�
WBMJEBEF�	PV�EB�BEFRVBÎÍP�KVSÓEJDB
�EB�EFDJTÍP�EP�KVJ[�PV�EP�NJOJTUSP
�F�OÍP�o�PV�OÍP�BQFOBT�o
�BDFSDB�EB�TVB�
FmDJÐODJB
�DPOUSJCVJÎÍP�QBSB�P�DSFTDJNFOUP�FDPOÙNJDP�FUD�
��
2VFTUÍP�QBSB�EJTDVTTÍP��-FJB�P�USFDIP�BCBJYP�SFUJSBEP�EF�VNB�FOUSFWJTUB�DPODFEJEB�QFMP�NJOJTUSP�/FMTPO�
+PCJN
�EP�4VQSFNP�5SJCVOBM�'FEFSBM
�F�SFTQPOEB��	J
�TF�P�BSHVNFOUP�Ï�PV�OÍP�GBWPSÈWFM�Ë�BOÈMJTF�EF�DPOTFRàÐO�
DJBT�QFMPT�KVÓ[FT��F�	JJ
�TF�BmSNBUJWP
�TF�FMF�TFSJB�VN�FYFNQMP�EF�SB[ÍP�FYUFSOB�PV�SB[ÍP�JOUFSOB�QBSB�B�BOÈMJTF�EBT�
DPOTFRàÐODJBT�QPS�QBSUF�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�CSBTJMFJSPT�
����������
�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 55FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
5FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
"�BOÈMJTF�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�QPEF�TFS�BMHP�NVJUP�TPmTUJDBEP��"�DIBNBEB�iBOÈMJTF�FDP�OÙNJDB�EP�EJSFJUPw�	UBNCÏN�DPOIFDJEB�DPNP�MBX�BOE�FDPOPNJDT
�QPS�FYFNQMP
�Ï�VN�UJQP�EF�JOWFTUJHBÎÍP�RVF�
VUJMJ[B�JOTUSVNFOUPT�	NBJT�PV�NFOPT�BWBOÎBEPT
�EF�UFPSJB�FDPOÙNJDB�OB�EFTDSJÎÍP�F�OB�QSFWJTÍP�EPT�FGFJUPT�EF�
OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�QFSUFODFOUFT�ËT�NBJT�EJGFSFOUFT�ÈSFBT�EP�%JSFJUP�	EJSFJUP�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM
�DJWJM
�QFOBM
�QSPDFTTVBM
�
TPDJFUÈSJP�FUD�
�BWBMJBOEP�UBJT�FGFJUPT�TFHVOEP�P�DSJUÏSJP�EB�FmDJÐODJB�FDPOÙNJDB��.BJT�Ë�GSFOUF
�WPDÐT�QPEFSÍP�DVS�
TBS�VNB�EJTDJQMJOB�FMFUJWB�RVF�EJTDVUJSÈ
�FN�OÓWFM�JOUSPEVUØSJP
�PT�GVOEBNFOUPT�F�BT�BQMJDBÎÜFT�NBJT�JNQPSUBOUFT�
EB�BOÈMJTF�FDPOÙNJDB�EP�%JSFJUP��/FTUF�DVSTP
�EF�i*OUSPEVÎÍP�BP�1FOTBNFOUP�&TUSBUÏHJDPw
�OØT�OPT�MJNJUBSFNPT�
B�FTUVEBS�BT�EVBT�QSJODJQBJT� GFSSBNFOUBT�UFØSJDBT�FNQSFHBEBT�FN�BOÈMJTFT�iDPOTFRVFODJBMJTUBTw�EP�%JSFJUP�	EF�
EJWFSTPT�UJQPT
�OÍP�BQFOBT�EP�UJQP�iFDPOÙNJDPw
�RVBJT�TFKBN���B�UFPSJB�EB�EFDJTÍP�SBDJPOBM�F�B�UFPSJB�EPT�KPHPT����
%F�RVF�NPEP�FTUBT�EVBT�GFSSBNFOUBT�GVODJPOBN �7FKBNPT
�BOUFT�EF�SFTQPOEFS�FTTB�QFSHVOUB
�RVBM�TFSJB�B�
FTUSVUVSB�EF�VN� UÓQJDP� BSHVNFOUP� DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUB��/PSNBMNFOUF
�PT� BSHVNFOUPT� DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUBT� BQSF�
TFOUBN�EVBT�GBDFT�PV�EJNFOTÜFT�RVF�TF�DPNQMFNFOUBN
�B�TBCFS
�VNB�EFTDSJUJWB�F�B�PVUSB�OPSNBUJWB��2VFTUÜFT�
EFTDSJUJWBT�TÍP�BRVFMBT�SFMBUJWBT�BPT�FGFJUPT�EF�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�TPCSF�P�DPNQPSUBNFOUP�EPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�EJSFUB�F�
JOEJSFUBNFOUF�BGFUBEPT�QFMB�TVB�JNQMFNFOUBÎÍP��F�RVFTUÜFT�OPSNBUJWBT�TF�BQSFTFOUBN�DPNP�BRVFMBT�RVF�QSP�
DVSBN�JEFOUJmDBS�RVBJT�TFSJBN�BT�OPSNBT�NBJT�BEFRVBEBT�QBSB�B�SFBMJ[BÎÍP�EF�DFSUPT�PCKFUJWPT�EFmOJEPT�DPNP�
TPDJBMNFOUF�EFTFKÈWFJT
�UPNBOEP�TF�BÓ�DPNP�EBEPT�PT�FGFJUPT�FTQFSBEPT�EBT�NFTNBT�OPSNBT�TPCSF�P�DPNQPSUB�
NFOUP�EPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�EJSFUB�F�JOEJSFUBNFOUF�BGFUBEPT�QFMB�TVB�JNQMFNFOUBÎÍP
�J�F�
�UPNBOEP�TF�BÓ�DPNP�EBEBT�
BT�SFTQPTUBT�EBT�DPSSFTQPOEFOUFT�RVFTUÜFT�EFTDSJUJWBT����
1PS�FYFNQMP��TF�FTUBNPT�JOUFSFTTBEPT�FN�FTUVEBS�PT�FGFJUPT�FTQFSBEPT�EP�SFHJNF�EF�SFTQPOTBCJMJEBEF�DJWJM�
	J�F�
�BT�OPSNBT�RVF�EFmOFN�RVBOEP�F�DPNP�BMHVÏN�Ï�SFTQPOTÈWFM�QPS�EBOPT�DBVTBEPT�Ë�PVUSB�QFTTPB
�UBM�DPNP�
JOUFSQSFUBEP�F�BQMJDBEP�QPS�VN�EBEP�5SJCVOBM
�TPCSF�P�OÞNFSP�EF�BDJEFOUFT�EF�USÉOTJUP�OVNB�DFSUB�SFHJÍP
�FT�
UBSFNPT�GB[FOEP�VNB�BOÈMJTF�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUB�UJQJDBNFOUF�EFTDSJUJWB��1PS�PVUSP�MBEP
�TF�FTUBNPT�JOUFSFTTBEPT�
FN�TBCFS�TF�VNB�NBOFJSB�FTQFDÓmDB�EF�JOUFSQSFUBS�F�BQMJDBS�BT�OPSNBT�RVF�EFmOFN�FTUF�SFHJNF�o�PV�NFTNP�TF�
FTUF�SFHJNF
�FMF�QSØQSJP�o�Ï�PV�OÍP�BEFRVBEB
�FN�WJTUB�EP�PCKFUJWP�TPDJBMNFOUF�EFTFKÈWFM�EF�SFEV[JS�BP�NÓOJNP�
P�OÞNFSP�EF�BDJEFOUFT�DPN�WFÓDVMPT�OB�SFHJÍP�FN�RVFTUÍP
�FOUÍP�B�OPTTB�BOÈMJTF�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUB�FTUBSÈ�TFOEP�
EP�UJQP�OPSNBUJWP�
&N�VNB�BOÈMJTF�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUB
�UBOUP�BT�BOÈMJTFT�EFTDSJUJWBT�DPNP�BT�BOÈMJTFT�OPSNBUJWBT�TÍP�GFJUBT�QPS�
NFJP�EF�NPEFMPT�o�NBJT�PV�NFOPT�GPSNBJT�o�EP�DPNQPSUBNFOUP�JOEJWJEVBM�F�EP�TJTUFNB�KVSÓEJDP��.PEFMPT�TÍP�
SFQSFTFOUBÎÜFT�TJNQMJmDBEBT�EB�SFBMJEBEF�RVF
�RVBOEP�CFN�DPOTUSVÓEPT
�QPEFN�DPOUSJCVJS�TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF�
QBSB�B�DPNQSFFOTÍP�EP�GFOÙNFOP�RVF�TF�RVFS�FTUVEBS��0�FNQSFHP�EF�NPEFMPT�UFN�B�JNQPSUBOUF�RVBMJEBEF�EF�
GPSÎBS�P�BOBMJTUB�B�FYQMJDJUBS�BT�TVBT�IJQØUFTFT�F�SBDJPDÓOJPT
�GBDJMJUBOEP
�DPN�JTTP
�B�EFUFDÎÍP�EF�FSSPT�F�B�FMBCPSBÎÍP�
EF�TVHFTUÜFT�DPOTUSVUJWBT�QPS�QBSUF�EF�UFSDFJSPT��0T�NPEFMPT�VTBEPT�FN�BOÈMJTFT�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUBT�GB[FN�VTP
�
HFSBMNFOUF
�EB�TVQPTJÎÍP�EF�RVF�UPEPT�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�FOWPMWJEPT�OB�TJUVBÎÍP�BOBMJTBEB�TÍP�BHFOUFT�SBDJPOBJT�RVF
�
FORVBOUP�UBJT
�PSJFOUBN�TF�OB�NÈYJNB�TBUJTGBÎÍP�QPTTÓWFM�EBT�TVBT�QSFGFSÐODJBT�QFTTPBJT�PV
�FRVJWBMFOUFNFOUF
�EF�
TFV�CFN�FTUBS�JOEJWJEVBM��&N�PVUSBT�QBMBWSBT
�B�JEÏJB�Ï�B�EF�RVF�PT�DPNQPSUBNFOUPT�JOEJWJEVBJT�DPSSFTQPOEFOUFT�
Ë�DPODSFUJ[BÎÍP�EF�RVBMRVFS�QBQFM�TPDJBM�o�JODMVJOEP�P�EP�KVJ[�o�QPEFN�TFS�NPEFMBEPT
�QBSB�PT�mOT�EB�EFUFS�
NJOBÎÍP�EPT�FGFJUPT�BTTPDJBEPT�B�VNB�EFDJTÍP�PV�OPSNB� KVSÓEJDB
�DPNP�TF�PT� JOEJWÓEVPT�FOWPMWJEPT�BHJTTFN�
SBDJPOBMNFOUF
�J�F�
�EF�GPSNB�B�SFBMJ[BS�BP�NÈYJNP�P�SFGFSJEP�PCKFUJWP�
1PJT�CFN
�VNB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUB�UÓQJDB�DPNFÎB�JEFOUJmDBOEP�EF�RVF�NPEP�VNB�OPSNB�KVSÓ�
EJDB�BGFUB�PT�JODFOUJWPT�EPT�TFVT�EFTUJOBUÈSJPT�QBSB�B�UPNBEB�EF�DFSUBT�EFDJTÜFT��6N�FYFNQMP�TFSJB�VNB�BOÈMJTF�
RVF�CVTDB�DPOIFDFS�PT�FGFJUPT
�TPCSF�PT�JODFOUJWPT�RVF�BT�QFTTPBT�UÐN�QBSB�DVNQSJS�DPOUSBUPT
�RVF�TÍP�	PT�FGFJUPT
�
HFSBEPT�QPS�VNB�OPSNB� KVSÓEJDB�RVF�EFmOF�DPNP�TFSÈ�B� JOEFOJ[BÎÍP�RVF�BMHVÏN�EFWFSÈ�QBHBS�B�VNB�PVUSB�
QFTTPB�FN�DBTP�EF�UFS�EFTDVNQSJEP�VN�DPOUSBUP�RVF�GPJ�DFMFCSBEP�QPS�BNCPT��"�QBSUJS�EBÓ
�TFHVF�B�BSHVNFO�
UBÎÍP�QBTTBOEP�EPT�JODFOUJWPT�EPT�EFTUJOBUÈSJPT�QBSB�VNB�QSPHOPTF�FN�SFMBÎÍP�ËT�TVBT�GVUVSBT�EFDJTÜFT��²�BRVJ�
RVF�WBJ�TFS�EBEB�ÐOGBTF�Ë�QSFNJTTB�EF�RVF�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�TÍP�SBDJPOBJT��4F�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�TÍP�SBDJPOBJT
�FOUÍP�FMFT�
JSÍP�SFTQPOEFS�B�TFVT�JODFOUJWPT�EF�GPSNB�B�SFBMJ[BS�BP�NÈYJNP�TVBT�QSFGFSÐODJBT��/P�FYFNQMP�EP�DPOUSBUP
�TF�P�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 66FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
6FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
JOEJWÓEVP�GPS�HBOIBS�NBJT�DVNQSJOEP�P�DPOUSBUP�RVF�P�EFTDVNQSJOEP
�QPJT�BP�EFTDVNQSJ�MP�EFWFS�QBHBS�VNB�
JOEFOJ[BÎÍP
�B�QSPHOPTF�TFSÈ��P�JOEJWÓEVP�DVNQSJSÈ�P�DPOUSBUP��DBTP�DPOUSÈSJP�	PV�TFKB
�TF�P�JOEJWÓEVP�GPS�HBOIBS�
NBJT�EFTDVNQSJOEP�P�DPOUSBUP�RVF�P�DVNQSJOEP�
�FOUÍP�B�QSPHOPTF�TFSÈ��P�JOEJWÓEVP�EFTDVNQSJSÈ�P�DPOUSBUP��
"QØT�FTTB�BOÈMJTF�EPT�JNQBDUPT�EBT�OPSNBT�TPCSF�PT�JODFOUJWPT�EPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�F�B�QSPHOPTF�FN�SFMBÎÍP�ËT�
EFDJTÜFT�RVF�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�JSÍP�UPNBS�EJBOUF�EFTTFT�JODFOUJWPT
�P�QSØYJNP�QBTTP�Ï�EFUFSNJOBS�PT�FGFJUPT�BHSFHBEPT�
EFTTBT�EFDJTÜFT�JOEJWJEVBJT
�PV�TFKB
�PT�FGFJUPT�RVF�PDPSSFN�RVBOEP�WÈSJPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�UPNBN�TVBT�EFDJTÜFT�OP�
TFOUJEP�QSFWJTUP��7PMUBOEP�BP�FYFNQMP
�B�QFSHVOUB�TFSJB��0�RVF�PDPSSFSÈ�RVBOEP�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�RVF�DFMFCSBN�
DPOUSBUPT�DPN�PVUSPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�UPNBSFN�EFDJTÜFT�UBM�DPNP�QSPHOPTUJDBEP �2VBM�TFSÈ�P�SFTVMUBEP�FN�UFSNPT�EP�
CFN�FTUBS�EP�HSVQP�GPSNBEP�QPS�FTUFT�JOEJWÓEVPT �&�EP�CFN�FTUBS�EB�TPDJFEBEF�DPNP�VN�UPEP 
�&TTBT�QFSHVOUBT�FODBNJOIBN�B�BOÈMJTF�QBSB�VNB�QFSTQFDUJWB�OPSNBUJWB��%FQPJT�EF�TBCFS�PT�FGFJUPT�BHSFHBEPT�
HFSBEPT�QFMB�OPSNB
�DBCF�QFSHVOUBS�DPNP�EFWFNPT�BWBMJBS�FTUFT�FGFJUPT��/P�OPTTP�FYFNQMP
�TF�PT�FGFJUPT�BHSF�
HBEPT�EB�OPSNB�RVF�EFmOF�JOEFOJ[BÎÜFT�OPT�DBTPT�EF�EFTDVNQSJNFOUP�EF�DPOUSBUPT�TÍP�UBJT
�RVF�PT�JOEJWÓEVPT�
EFDJEJSÍP�DVNQSJS�PT�TFVT�DPOUSBUPT�EF�NPEP�RVF�PT�OFHØDJPT�RVF�BVNFOUBN�P�CFN�FTUBS�EPT�JOEJWÓEVPT�QPEF�
SÍP�TFS�SFBMJ[BEPT
�FOUÍP�Ï�QSPWÈWFM�RVF�BWBMJFNPT�FTTFT�FGFJUPT�BHSFHBEPT�DPNP�QPTJUJWPT
�PV�TFKB
�DPNP�BMHP�B�TFS�
CVTDBEP��4F�FTTB�GPS�B�SFTQPTUB
�FOUÍP�UFNPT�VNB�CPB�SB[ÍP�QBSB�KVTUJmDBS�B�OPSNB�FN�RVFTUÍP��$BTP�DPOUSÈSJP
�
UBM�OPSNB�QPEFSÈ�TFS�DSJUJDBEB�QPS�QSPEV[JS�FGFJUPT�RVF�OØT�BWBMJBNPT�DPNP�OFHBUJWPT
�P�RVF
�QPS�TVB�WF[
�TFSWJS�
QBSB�GVOEBNFOUBS�QSPQPTUBT�RVF�WJTFN�B�TVB�NPEJmDBÎÍP������
/FTUF�DVSTP
�DPODFOUSBSFNPT�OPTTPT�JOUFSFTTFT�FN�FTUVEBS
�FN�OÓWFM�JOUSPEVUØSJP
�PT�JOTUSVNFOUPT�UFØSJDPT�
NBJT�VTBEPT�FN�BOÈMJTFT�DPOTFRVFODJBMJTUBT�EP�UJQP�EFTDSJUJWP��&TTF�FTUVEP�TFSÈ�PSJFOUBEP�QBSB�B�TPMVÎÍP�EF�QSP�
CMFNBT�QSÈUJDPT
�OPT�RVBJT�CVTDBSFNPT�BOBMJTBS�EF�RVF�GPSNB�BT�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�BGFUBN�JODFOUJWPT�F
�QPS�FTTB�
WJB
�JOnVFODJBN�BT�EFDJTÜFT�UPNBEBT�QFMPT�JOEJWÓEVPT����
2VFTUÍP�QBSB�DPOUSPMF��1FOTF�FN�VNB�OPSNB�KVSÓEJDB�RVBMRVFS�RVF�WPDÐ�DPOIFÎB�F�UFOUF�JEFOUJmDBS�VN�HSV�
QP�TPDJBM�SFMFWBOUF�QBSB�B�EFUFSNJOBÎÍP�EPT�FGFJUPT�EB�OPSNB�FN�RVFTUÍP�TPCSF�P�CFN�FTUBS�EFTUF�HSVQP�
5FYUP�TVHFSJEP��i0�$PNQPOFOUF�+VEJDJBM�EPT�4QSFBET�#BODÈSJPTw
�EF�"SNBOEP�$BTUFMBS�1JOIFJSP
�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 77FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
7FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
*7�o�0�$PNQPOFOUF�+VEJDJBM�EPT�4QSFBET�#BODÈSJPT�
"SNBOEP�$BTUFMBS�1JOIFJSP��
*7���*OUSPEVÎÍP�
"�SFGPSNB�EPT�TJTUFNBT�mOBODFJSPT�FTUÈ�FOUSF�BT�RVF�NBJT�BWBOÎBSBN�OB�"NÏSJDB�-B�
UJOB�-PSB
�����
��/ÍP�PCTUBOUF�FTTF�QSPHSFTTP
�PT�QBÓTFT�EB�SFHJÍP�DPOUJOVBN�B�BQSFTFO�
UBS�CBJYPT�OÓWFJT�EF�JOUFSNFEJBÎÍP�mOBODFJSB
�JODMVJOEP�CBJYPT�WPMVNFT�EF�DSÏEJUP�QBSB�P�
TFUPS�QSJWBEP�RVF
�DPNP�QSPQPSÎÍP�EP�1*#
�FTUÍP�NVJUP�BCBJYP�EP�PCTFSWBEP�FN�QBÓTFT�EB�
0&$%�	#FDL�����
��/ÍP�TVSQSFFOEF
�QPSUBOUP
�RVF�BT�DPNQBOIJBT�MBUJOP�BNFSJDBOBT�DPO�
TJEFSFN�B�EJmDVMEBEF�EF�BDFTTP�BPT�NFSDBEPT�mOBODFJSPT�P�NBJPS�PCTUÈDVMP�Ë�FYQBOTÍP�EF�
TVBT�BUJWJEBEFT�FNQSFTBSJBJT
�Ë�GSFOUF�EF�PVUSPT�GBUPSFT�DPNP�JOTUBCJMJEBEF�NBDSPFDPOÙNJDB
�
JNQPTUPT�F�WJPMÐODJB�VSCBOB�	(BMJOEP
�����
��
&YJTUFN�EVBT�FYQMJDBÎÜFT�DPNQMFNFOUBSFT�QBSB�P�CBJYP�WPMVNF�EF�DSÏEJUP�QSFWBMFDFOUF�
OB�"NÏSJDB�-BUJOB��6NB�FOGBUJ[B� B� JOTUBCJMJEBEF�NBDSPFDPOÙNJDB� F�PT� FMFWBEPT�EÏmDJUT�
QÞCMJDPT�USBEJDJPOBMNFOUF�PCTFSWBEPT�OB�SFHJÍP�	1BEJMMB�F�3FRVFKP
�������(BMJOEP�F�.JDDP
�
����
��"�PVUSB�FYQMJDBÎÍP�BUSJCVJ�P�CBJYP�WPMVNF�EF�DSÏEJUP�Ë�GBMUB�EF�QSPUFÎÍP�EPT�EJSFJUPT�
EPT�DSFEPSFT�F�BPT�EJSFJUPT�EF�QSPQSJFEBEF�F�SFHSB�EB�MFJ�	iSVMF�PG�MBXw
�FN�HFSBM
�BTQFDUPT�
RVF� UBNCÏN�DBSBDUFSJ[BN�CFN�B�"NÏSJDB�-BUJOB� 	-B�1PSUB
�-PQF[�EF�4JMBOFT
�4IMFJGFS� F�
7JTIOZ
�������#FDL
�������(BMJOEP�F�.JDDP
�����
��
0�#SBTJM�JMVTUSB�CFN�UBOUP�BT�TJHOJmDBUJWBT�NVEBOÎBT�FYQFSJNFOUBEBT�QFMP�TFUPS�mOBO�
DFJSP�EFTEF�NFBEPT�EPT�BOPT����o�DPOUSPMF�EB�JOnBÎÍP
�QSJWBUJ[BÎÍP�EF�CBODPT�QÞCMJDPT
�
BCFSUVSB�Ë�FOUSBEB�EF�JOTUJUVJÎÜFT�mOBODFJSBT�FTUSBOHFJSBT
�NFMIPSJB�EB�TVQFSWJTÍP�F�SFHV�
MBÎÍP�EP�TFUPS�mOBODFJSP�FUD��o�DPNP�B�GBMUB�EF�JNQBDUP�EFTTBT�SFGPSNBT�TPCSF�P�WPMVNF�EF�
DSÏEJUP��6NB�FYQMJDBÎÍP�DFOUSBM�QBSB�FTTFT�CBJYPT�WPMVNFT�EF�DSÏEJUP�Ï�P�BMUP�TQSFBE�DPCSBEP�
QFMPT�CBODPT�o�FN�����
�PT�TQSFBET�FN�PQFSBÎÜFT�DPN�QFTTPBT�GÓTJDBT�F�KVSÓEJDBT�mDBSBN�
FN
�SFTQFDUJWBNFOUF
���
���F���
����%F�GBUP
�PT�TQSFBET�CBODÈSJPT�OP�#SBTJM�FTUÍP�FOUSF�
PT�NBJT�BMUPT�OB�"NÏSJDB�-BUJOB�F�BUJOHFN�NÞMUJQMPT�EBRVFMFT�PCTFSWBEPT�FN�QBÓTFT�EFTFO�
WPMWJEPT�	"GBOBTJFĊ
�-IBDFS�F�/BLBOF
�����
��
$PN�EJTDVUJEP
� FOUSF�PVUSPT
�QPS�"JUI� 	����
�1JOIFJSP�F�$BCSBM� 	����
�F�-BFWFO�F�
.BKPOJ� 	����
� B� JOFmDJÐODJB� KVEJDJBM� o� FOWPMWFOEP� B�NPSPTJEBEF�EBT�EFDJTÜFT
� P� DVTUP�
EF�VTP�EB�+VTUJÎB�F�P�SJTDP�FNCVUJEP�OB�GBMUB�EF�JNQBSDJBMJEBEF�F�QSFWJTJCJMJEBEF�o�Ï�VNB�
DBVTB�JNQPSUBOUF�EFTTFT�BMUPT�TQSFBET��"JUI�FTUJNB�RVF�EF�����B�����EP�TQSFBE�CBODÈSJP�
OP�#SBTJM�TF�EFWF�Ë�JOFmDJÐODJB�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP��1JOIFJSP�F�$BCSBM�NPTUSBN�RVF
�DPOUSPMBOEP�
QBSB�P�FGFJUP�EB�MFHJTMBÎÍP�F�EF�EJGFSFOÎBT�EF�SFOEB�QFS�DBQJUB
�PCUÏN�TF�RVF�B�RVBMJEBEF�EP�
KVEJDJÈSJP�BGFUB�TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF�B�RVBOUJEBEF�EF�DSÏEJUP�CBODÈSJP�OB�FDPOPNJB
�NFEJEB�
QFMB�SB[ÍP�DSÏEJUP�1*#��-BFWFO�F�.BKOPOJ�NPTUSBN�RVF
�DPOUSPMBOEP�QBSB�VN�DPOKVOUP�
EF�DBSBDUFSÓTUJDBT�EF�EJGFSFOUFT�QBÓTFT
�B�FmDJÐODJB�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP�Ï
�KVOUP�DPN�B�JOnBÎÍP
�P�
QSJODJQBM�EFUFSNJOBOUF�EBT�EJGFSFOÎBT�EF�TQSFBET�EF�KVSPT�FOUSF�PT�����QBÓTFT�BOBMJTBEPT��
*7���0�+VEJDJÈSJP�F�B�1SPUFÎÍP�BPT�%JSFJUPT�EPT�$SFEPSFT�
/P�#SBTJM
�B�NPSPTJEBEF�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP�Ï�QFSDFCJEB�DPNP�P�QSJODJQBM�QSPCMFNB�OB�DP�
CSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�EF�FNQSÏTUJNPT�JOBEJNQMFOUFT��"�NFTNB�BWBMJBÎÍP�Ï�PCTFSWBEB�FN�SFMBÎÍP�
BP�GVODJPOBNFOUP�EB�KVTUJÎB�FN�HFSBM��1FTRVJTB�DPN�FNQSFTÈSJPT�NPTUSPV�RVF���
���EFMFT�
QFOTBN�RVF�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�UFN�VN�EFTFNQFOIP�SVJN�PV�QÏTTJNP�FN�SFMBÎÍP�Ë�TVB�BHJMJEBEF�
	1JOIFJSP
�����
��6NB�PVUSB�QFTRVJTB�NPTUSPV�RVF���
���EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�CSBTJMFJSPT�TÍP�
EB�NFTNB�PQJOJÍP�	1JOIFJSP
�����
��
� %CONOMISTA� DO� )0%!�
E� PROFESSOR� DO� )%�5&2*��
!S� OPINIÜES� EXPRESSAS�
NESTE� TRABALHO� SÎO� EX
CLUSIVAMENTE�DO�AUTOR�E�
NÎO�REmETEM�NECESSARIA
MENTE�A�VISÎO�DO�"ANCO�
#ENTRAL�DO�"RASIL��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 88FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
8FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 �
"�NPSPTJEBEF�EB�KVTUJÎB�QSFKVEJDB�PT�NFSDBEPT�EF�DSÏEJUP�EF�USÐT�GPSNBT�EJGFSFOUFT��1SJNFJSP
�FMB�UPSOB�B�QFS�
TQFDUJWB�EF�VNB�BÎÍP�OB�KVTUJÎB�NVJUP�NFOPT�BNFBÎBEPSB�EP�QPOUP�EF�WJTUB�EP�EFWFEPS��%F�GBUP
�BMHVOT�CBODPT�
BSHVNFOUBN�RVF�IÈ�EFWFEPSFT�RVF�QSFGFSFN�RVF�B�FYFDVÎÍP�EB�EÓWJEB�TFKB�GFJUB�OB�KVTUJÎB
�QPJT�FMFT�TBCFN�RVF�
JTTP�JS�BMPOHBS�P�QSB[P�QBSB�QBHBNFOUP��.FTNP�QBSB�QFRVFOPT�EFWFEPSFT
�B�QFSTQFDUJWB�EF�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�EF�
VNB�EÓWJEB�Ï�NFOPT�BNFBÎBEPSB�EP�RVF�TVB�JODMVTÍP�FN�VN�EPT�DBEBTUSPT�OFHBUJWPT�SFHVMBSNFOUF�DPOTVMUBEPT�
QPS�DSFEPSFT�F�DPNFSDJBOUFT��0V�TFKB
�PT�CBODPT�BDSFEJUBN�RVF
�QBSB�FNQSÏTUJNPT�OP�NFSDBEP�EF�WBSFKP
�DBEBT�
USPT�OFHBUJWPT�DPN�B�4FSBTB�F�P�41$�TÍP�NBJT�FGFUJWPT�FN�HBSBOUJS�P�QBHBNFOUP�EF�EÓWJEBT�EP�RVF�PT�USJCVOBJT��
4FHVOEP
�B�NPSPTJEBEF�SFEV[�TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF�P�WBMPS�EBT�HBSBOUJBT�DPNP�QSPUFÎÍP�DPOUSB�B�JOBEJNQMÐODJB�
F
�NBJT�HFSBMNFOUF
�EJNJOVJ�B�SFMFWÉODJB�EB�QSPQSJFEBEF�EF�BUJWPT�DPNP�VNB�HBSBOUJB�JNQMÓDJUB�QBSB�PT�DSFEPSFT��
%FTUB�GPSNB
�BJOEB�RVF�OPSNBMNFOUF�PT�CBODPT�WFOIBN�BP�mOBM�WFODFS�VNB�BÎÍP�EF�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM
�RVBOEP�
JTTP�PDPSSF�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�OÍP�FYJTUFN�BUJWPT�QBSB�TFSFN�FYFDVUBEPT�F�QBSB�QFSNJUJS�B�SFDVQFSBÎÍP�EP�DSÏEJUP�
o�EVSBOUF�P�QSPDFTTP�P�EFWFEPS�DPNVNFOUF�BCBOEPOB�BT�HBSBOUJBT
�RVF�UFOEFN�B�EFQSFDJBS�TF�SBQJEBNFOUF��
"MÏN�EJTTP
�FN�NVJUPT�DBTPT
�RVBOEP�VNB�EFDJTÍP�Ï�mOBMNFOUF�BMDBOÎBEB
�P�CBODP��JODBQB[�EF�UPNBS�B�HBSBO�
UJB�PV�PT�BUJWPT�EP�EFWFEPS
�FN�GVOÎÍP�EB�QSFGFSÐODJB�EF�RVF�HP[B�P�mTDP�o�RVBOEP�P�CBODP�MFWB�PT�BUJWPT�EP�
EFWFEPS�B�IBTUB�QÞCMJDB
�P�mTDP�DPNQBSFDF�F�mDB�DPN�P�SFTVMUBEP�EP�MFJMÍP��i&YJKB�VN�DPMBUFSBM�JHVBM�B���WF[FT�P�
WBMPS�EP�FNQSÏTUJNP
�RVF�EFQPJT�EB�EFDJTÍP�KVEJDJBM�B�HBSBOUJB�WBMF�NVJUP�NFOPT�EP�RVF�B�EÓWJEB�w�&TUB�BmSNB�
ÎÍP
�GFJUB�QFMP�HFSFOUF�EF�VN�CBODP
�FYQSFTTB�B�WJTÍP�EF�RVF�BT�HBSBOUJBT�SFBJT�TÍP�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�JOTVmDJFOUFT�
FY�QPTU
�JOEFQFOEFOUFNFOUF�EF�RVÍP�TJHOJmDBOUFT�FMBT�QBSFÎBN�FY�BOUF��/P�NÓOJNP
�P�WBMPS�EP�DPMBUFSBM�OÍP�
BDPNQBOIB�P�WBMPS�EB�EÓWJEB
�FN�QBSUF�DPNP�DPOTFRàÐODJB�EP�BDÞNVMP�EF�KVSPT�F�NVMUBT�QPS�BUSBTP��&�UBNCÏN�
I�DBTPT�FN�RVF�BT�HBSBOUJBT�TJNQMFTNFOUF�EFTBQBSFDFN�FORVBOUP�P�DBTP�FTU�TFOEP�KVMHBEP
�PV�FN�RVF�PT�EF�
WFEPSFT�WFOEFN�PV�USBOTGFSFN�B�QSPQSJFEBEF�EPT�BUJWPT�EBEPT�DPNP�DPMBUFSBM�PV�MJTUBEPT�QBSB�B�QFOIPSB��"JOEB�
RVF�FTTBT�PQFSBÎÜFT�QPTTBN�TFS�SFWFSUJEBT�OB�KVTUJÎB
�F�TVKFJUFN�P�JOGSBUPS�B�QFOBMJEBEFT
�FMBT�BMPOHBN�BJOEB�NBJT�
B�EVSBÎÍP�EP�QSPDFTTP�KVEJDJBM��
%FTUB�GPSNB
�PT�BUJWPT�EBEPT�FN�HBSBOUJB�B�VN�FNQSÏTUJNP
�BJOEB�RVF�VN�BTQFDUP�QPTJUJWP�EP�QPOUP�EF�WJTUB�
EP�DSFEPS
�TÍP�WJTUPT�QSJODJQBMNFOUF�DPNP�VN�JOTUSVNFOUP�EF�QSFTTÍP�TPCSF�P�EFWFEPS�RVBOEP�EB�FYFDVÎÍP�EBT�
HBSBOUJBT��i2VBOEP�P�DSFEPS�mOBMNFOUF�DPOTFHVF�SFUPNBS�B�HBSBOUJB
�FMB�K�FTU�USFNFOEBNFOUF�EFQSFDJBEB��"�
HBSBOUJB�FOUSB�OB�OFHPDJBÎÍP
�NBT�FMB�OÍP�UFN�VNB�VUJMJEBEF�QSÈUJDB�DPNP�UBM��&MB�Ï�NBJT�VNB�DPJTB�UFØSJDBw
�
BSHVNFOUB�P�EJSFUPS�EF�VN�CBODP�DPOTVMUBEP��"�FYDFÎÍP�Ï�P�DBTP�EPT�BVUPNØWFJT
�FN�RVF�B�SFUPNBEB�EP�WFÓDVMP
�
CBTFBEB�OP�JOTUSVNFOUP�EB�BMJFOBÎÍP�mEVDJÈSJB
�Ï�NBJT�ÈHJM�F�FmDB[��*TUP�TF�SFnFUF�FN�TQSFBET�NBJT�CBJYPT�QBSB�P�
mOBODJBNFOUP�EF�BVUPNØWFJT�EP�RVF�EF�PVUSPT�UJQPT�EF�CFOT��FN�����
�P�TQSFBE�EF�KVSPT�QBSB�P�mOBODJBNFOUP�
EB�BRVJTJÎÍP�EF�WFÓDVMPT�GPJ�EF���
��
�DPOUSB���
���QBSB�P�mOBODJBNFOUP�Ë�BRVJTJÎÍP�EF�PVUSPT�CFOT
���
���
QBSB�P�DSÏEJUP�QFTTPBM
����
���QBSB�P�DIFRVF�FTQFDJBM�F���
���QBSB�P�EFTDPOUP�EF�EVQMJDBUBT��
5FSDFJSP
�B�GBMUB�EF�BHJMJEBEF�DSJB�JODFOUJWPT�QBSB�RVF�PT�EFWFEPSFT�VTFN�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�DPNP�VNB�GPSNB�EF�
QPTUFSHBS�P�QBHBNFOUP�EF� TVBT�EÓWJEBT��/B�QFTRVJTB� TVQSBDJUBEB� DPN�NBHJTUSBEPT
� FTUFT� GPSBN�QFSHVOUBEPT�
TPCSF�B�GSFRàÐODJB�DPN�RVF�JOEJWÓEVPT
�mSNBT�F�HSVQPT�EF�JOUFSFTTF�SFDPSSJBN�BP�KVEJDJÈSJP�OÍP�QBSB�SFDMBNBS�
VN�EJSFJUP
�NBT�QBSB�BEJBS�P�DVNQSJNFOUP�EF�VNB�PCSJHBÎÍP
�FYQMPSBOEP�B�NPSPTJEBEF�EB�KVTUJÎB�FN�EFDJEJS�F�
GB[FS�WBMFS�TVBT�EFDJTÜFT��$PNP�JMVTUSBEP�OB�5BCFMB��
�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�DPOTJEFSBN�FTUB�VNB�QSÈUJDB�GSFRàFOUF�FN�
DBTPT�RVF�FOWPMWBN�PQFSBÎÜFT�EF�DSÏEJUP
�RVF�mDBN�BUSÈT�BQFOBT�EPT�DBTPT�RVF�FOWPMWFN�RVFTUÜFT�USJCVUÈSJBT
�F�
Ë�GSFOUF�EF�DBTPT�EF�JORVJMJOBUP�USBOTBÎÜFT�DPNFSDJBJT�F�DPOnJUPT�USBCBMIJTUBT��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 99FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
9FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
"�QSPUFÎÍP�MFHBM�DPODFEJEB�BPT�DSFEPSFT�OP�#SBTJM�Ï�CBTFBEB�FN�MFJT�TJNJMBSFT�ËT�RVF�SFHVMBNFOUBN�P�NFS�
DBEP�EF�DSÏEJUP�FN�PVUSPT�QBÓTFT�MBUJOP�BNFSJDBOPT�F�FVSPQFVT
�RVF�UBNCÏN�BEPUBN�P�BTTJN�DIBNBEP�TJTUFNB�
GSBODÐT�EF�DJWJM�MBX��&OUSFWJTUBT�DPN�CBODPT�NPTUSBSBN�RVF�BQFTBS�EF�DSÓUJDBT�B�BMHVOT�BTQFDUPT�EFTTB�MFHJTMBÎÍP�
TVCTUBOUJWB�o�DPNP�QPS�FYFNQMP�B�MFJ�EBT�GBMÐODJBT
�B�RVFTUÍP�EP�BOBUPDJTNP
�FUD��o�FMFT�B�BWBMJBN�EF�GPSNB�
SFMBUJWBNFOUF�QPTJUJWB
�OB�NFEJEB�FN�RVF�FMB�FTUBCFMFDF�DMBSBNFOUF�DPNP�PT�DPOUSBUPT�EFWFN�TFS� SFEJHJEPT
�
DPNP�DPOTUJUVJS�HBSBOUJBT
�RVF�UJQPT�EF�QSPDFEJNFOUPT�TFHVJS
�P�QBQFM�EPT�KVÓ[FT�FN�DBEB�QBTTP�EF�VN�QSPDFTTP�
EF�SFDVQFSBÎÍP�EF�FNQSÏTUJNP�FUD��²�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�QSPDFTTVBM
�QFSDFCJEB�DPNP�NVJUP�GBWPSÈWFM�BPT�EFWFEPSFT
�F�
FTQFDJBMNFOUF�B�TVB�BQMJDBÎÍP�QFMP�KVEJDJÈSJP
�RVF�FMFT�SFTQPOTBCJMJ[BN�QFMB�GSBDB�QSPUFÎÍP�BP�DSFEPS�OP�#SBTJM��
&N� QBSUJDVMBS
� PT� DPNQMFYPT� QSPDFEJNFOUPT� MFHBJT� RVF� SFHVMBN� B� DPCSBOÎB� KVEJDJBM� EF� FNQSÏTUJNPT� TÍP�
QFSDFCJEPT�DPNP�B�QSJODJQBM�DBVTB�QBSB�B�TVB�NPSPTJEBEF
�BP�QFSNJUJS�WÈSJBT�GPSNBT�QBSB�TF�BEJBS�VNB�EFDJTÍP��
0T�QSPCMFNBT�DPN�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�QSPDFTTVBM�OÍP�TÍP�FYDMVTJWPT�EBT�DPCSBOÎBT�KVEJDJBJT�EF�FNQSÏTUJNPT
�OFN�UBN�
QPVDP�TVBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�FN�UFSNPT�EF�NPSPTJEBEF��"TTJN
�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�FOUSFWJTUBEPT�QPS�1JOIFJSP�	����
�
BQPOUBN�RVF
�FN�SFMBÎÍP�Ë�NPSPTJEBEF
�PT�QSJODJQBJT�QSPCMFNBT�DPN�P�WJHFOUF�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�CSBTJMFJSP�
TÍP�RVF�FTUF�QFSNJUF�NVJUBT�GPSNBT�QBSB�TF�BEJBS�VNB�EFDJTÍP
�F�RVF�IÈ�VN�OÞNFSP�FYDFTTJWP�EF�JOTUÉODJBT�B�
RVF�TF�QPEF�SFDPSSFS�FN�DBEB�DBTP��2VBTF�����EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�DPOTJEFSBN�FTTBT�DBVTBT�NVJUP�JNQPSUBOUFT�EB�
NPSPTJEBEF
�DPN�PVUSPT�����DPOTJEFSBOEP�BT�VN�QSPCMFNB�SFMFWBOUF�	5BCFMB��
��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1010FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
10FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
0�DVTUP�EB�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�Ï�PVUSP�QSPCMFNB��6N�BEWPHBEP�EF�GPSB�EP�CBODP�DPCSB�
FOUSF�����F�����EP�WBMPS�SFDVQFSBEP
�NBJT�P�SFFNCPMTP�EF�EFTQFTBT
�FORVBOUP�PT�BEWPHB�
EPT�EP�QSØQSJP�CBODP�SFDFCFN�VN�QBHBNFOUP�RVF�WBSJB�EF����B�����EP�WBMPS�SFDVQFSBEP
�
EFQFOEFOEP�EP�FTUÈHJP�EP�QSPDFTTP�FN�RVF�P�FNQSÏTUJNP�Ï�SFDVQFSBEP��&N�4ÍP�1BVMP
�B�
QBSUF�RVF�JOJDJB�P�QSPDFTTP�UFN�EF�QBHBS�DVTUBT�KVEJDJBJT�EF����EP�WBMPS�FN�RVFTUÍP
�NBJT�
���RVBOEP�TF�EÈ�P�SFDVSTP�B�VNB�JOTUÉODJB�TVQFSJPS
�NBJT����QBSB�B�BÎÍP�EF�FYFDVÎÍP���
0T�DSFEPSFT�UÐN�EF�QBHBS�UBNCÏN�QBSB�SFHJTUSBS�EPDVNFOUPT
�QBSB�RVF�P�PmDJBM�EF�KVTUJÎB�
OPUJmRVF�P�EFWFEPS�F�PV�MJTUF�PT�CFOT�QBSB�QFOIPSB�FUD��6TVBMNFOUF
�BQFOBT�FN�DBTPT�FN�
RVF�P�DSFEPS� UFN�BEWPHBEPT� USBCBMIBOEP�EFOUSP�EB�FNQSFTB�F�P�FNQSÏTUJNP�TVQFSB�VN�
DFSUP�QBUBNBS�DPNQFOTB�GB[FS�VNB�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM��1BSB�VN�QFRVFOP�FNQSÏTUJNP
�FN�
HFSBM�OÍP�DPNQFOTB�SFDPSSFS�Ë�KVTUJÎB�QBSB�UFOUBS�SFDVQFSÈ�MP��
/P�DBTP�EB�NBJPSJB�EPT�FNQSÏTUJNPT�FN�RVF�B�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�OÍP�Ï�OFDFTTÈSJB�	FNQSÏT�
UJNPT�TFN�HBSBOUJBT�EF�OP�NÈYJNP�3��������
�PT�CBODPT�VTVBMNFOUF�GB[FN�VNB�QSJNFJSB�
UFOUBUJWB�EJSFUB�EF�SFDVQFSBÎÍP�F
�TF�NBM�TVDFEJEPT
�USBOTGFSFN�P�DBTP�B�VNB�FNQSFTB�EF�DP�
CSBOÎBT��&TUF�Ï�P�DBTP�EB�NBJPS�QBSUF�EBT�PQFSBÎÜFT�EF�WBSFKP�	QPS�FYFNQMP
�DIFRVF�FTQFDJBM
�
DSÏEJUP�BP�DPOTVNJEPS
�FNQSÏTUJNPT�QFTTPBJT�FUD�
��"T�FNQSFTBT�EF�DPCSBOÎB�DPCSBN�VNB�
UBYB�EF�TVDFTTP�FOUSF����F�����EP�WBMPS�FWFOUVBMNFOUF�SFDVQFSBEP
�VTVBMNFOUF�NVJUP�NF�
OPT�RVF�P�DVTUP�EF�VNB�BÎÍP�KVEJDJBM
�QBSUJDVMBSNFOUF�OP�DBTP�EF�QFRVFOPT�FNQSÏTUJNPT��
&TUB�FTUSBUÏHJB�UBNCÏN�Ï�QSFGFSJEB�QPSRVF�PT�EFWFEPSFT�RVF�DPOUSBUBN�QFRVFOPT�FNQSÏTUJ�
NPT�HFSBMNFOUF�OÍP�UÐN�CFOT�QBTTÓWFJT�EF�FYFDVÎÍP
�EF�GPSNB�RVF�BP�mN�F�BP�DBCP�P�CBODP�
QPEF�OÍP�UFS�NFJPT�EF�SFDVQFSBS�TFV�DSÏEJUP
�NFTNP�RVF�WJUPSJPTP�OB�KVTUJÎB��
1PS�mN
�PT�DSFEPSFT�BSHVNFOUBN�RVF�VN�KVEJDJÈSJP�NBKPSJUBSJBNFOUF�GBWPSÈWFM�BPT�EF�
WFEPSFT�Ï�PVUSB�SB[ÍP�EP�FOGSBRVFDJNFOUP�EPT�EJSFJUPT�EPT�DSFEPSFT�FTUBCFMFDJEPT�FN�MFJ��
&TUB�QPTJÎÍP�WBJ�BMÏN�EB�JOTBUJTGBÎÍP�RVF�TF�FTQFSBSJB�EF�VNB�EBT�QBSUFT�RVF�TF�WÐ�EF�VN�
MBEP�EB�EJTQVUB��"P�DPOUSÈSJP
�FTUF�TVQPTUP�WJÏT�Ï�BUSJCVÓEP�Ë�UFOEÐODJB�EPT�KVÓ[FT�EF�VTBS�
TVB�QPTJÎÍP�OB�CVTDB�EB�SFEJTUSJCVJÎÍP�EF�SFOEB�F�BUJWPT��
6NB�WJTÍP�RVF�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�TF�BSHVNFOUB�TFS�BEPUBEB�QFMPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�Ï�B�EF�RVF�P�
KVEJDJÈSJP�OÍP�BQMJDB�B�MFJ
�NBT�HVJB�TVBT�EFDJTÜFT�QFMP�PCKFUJWP�EF�iKVTUJÎB�TPDJBMw��1JOIFJSP�
	����
� BOBMJTB� FTUF� DPNQPSUBNFOUP
� DIBNBOEP�P�EF� iQPMJUJ[BÎÍPw�EBT� EFDJTÜFT� KVEJDJBJT��
&TUFOEFOEP�TF�QBSB�BMÏN�EPT�NFSDBEPT�EF�DSÏEJUP
�FTUF�UJQP�EF�DPNQPSUBNFOUP�GSFRàFOUF�
NFOUF�SFnFUF�VNB�JOUFOÎÍP�EF�GBWPSFDFS�HSVQPT�TPDJBJT�F�PV�FDPOÙNJDPT�NBJT�GSBDPT
�DPNP�
USBCBMIBEPSFT� F�QFRVFOPT�EFWFEPSFT
� PV� TJNQMFTNFOUF� BT� JODMJOBÎÜFT�QPMÓUJDBT�EP�NBHJT�
USBEP�FN�SFMBÎÍP�BP�DPOnJUP�FN�RVFTUÍP��
%F�BDPSEP�DPN�B�NBJPS�QBSUF�EPT�����NBHJTUSBEPT�RVF�QBSUJDJQBSBN�EB�QFTRVJTB�EF�
1JOIFJSP�	����
�B�iQPMJUJ[BÎÍPw�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT
�BJOEB�RVF�VNB�SFBMJEBEF�OB�KVTUJÎB�
CSBTJMFJSB
�PDPSSF�BQFOBT�PDBTJPOBMNFOUF��"JOEB�BTTJN
�VN�RVJOUP�EFMFT�W�FTUF�UJQP�EF�DPN�
QPSUBNFOUP�DPN�GSFRàFOUF�	5BCFMB��
��"JOEB�RVF�OB�BVTÐODJB�EF�CFODINBSLT�JOUFSOBDJP�
OBJT�TFKB�EJGÓDJM�BWBMJBS�TF�FTUBT�TÍP�QSPQPSÎÜFT�BMUBT�PV�CBJYBT
�FMBT�TÍP�BMUBT�P�TVmDJFOUF�QBSB�
RVF�B�iQPMJUJ[BÎÍPw�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�QPTTB�TFS�DPOTJEFSBEB�VN�GBUPS�JNQPSUBOUF�QBSB�
FYQMJDBS�QPSRVF�FN�BMHVOT�DBTPT� KVJ[FT�EJGFSFOUFT�DIFHBN�B�EJTUJOUBT�EFDJTÜFT�TPCSF�DBTPT�
NVJUP�TFNFMIBOUFT�PV�NFTNP�JHVBJT��
�� 0ARA� DISPUTAS� ENVOL
VENDO�VALORES�ACIMA�DE�
����� SALÉRIOS� MÓNIMOS��
A� TAXA�MARGINAL� PARA� OS�
VALORES� ACIMA� DESSE� TO
TAL�CAI�PARA������
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1111FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
11FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
1FSHVOUBEPT�TPCSF�RVÍP�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�B�QPMJUJ[BÎÍP�o�EFmOJEB�DPNP�B�UFOEÐODJB�ËT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�SFnF�
UJSFN�NBJT�BT�WJTÜFT�QPMÓUJDBT�EPT�KVÓ[FT�EP�RVF�VNB�MFJUVSB�SJHPSPTB�EB�MFJ�o�UFOEJB�B�PDPSSFS�FN�DFSUPT�UJQPT�EF�
DBVTBT
�PT�KVÓ[FT�JOEJDBSBN�RVF�B�QSJWBUJ[BÎÍP�Ï�B�ÈSFB�RVF�UFOEF�B�TFS�NBJT�JOnVFODJBEB�QFMB�WJTÍP�QPMÓUJDB�EPT�
KVÓ[FT��EF�BDPSEP�DPN�����EPT�FOUSFWJTUBEPT
�OFTTFT�DBTPT�B�iQPMJUJ[BÎÍPw�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�Ï�NVJUP�GSFRàFOUF
�FO�
RVBOUP�����EJTTFSBN�TFS�BMHP�GSFRàFOUF�	5BCFMB��
��"�DPNQBSBÎÍP�SFMFWBOUF
�QBSB�PT�mOT�EFTUF�UFYUP
��B�HSBOEF�
EJGFSFOÎB�FOUSF�DBTPT�OBT�ÈSFBT�DPNFSDJBM�F�EF�NFSDBEP�EF�DSÏEJUP��EF�BDPSEP�DPN�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT
�B�QPMJUJ[BÎÍP�
�	TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF
�NBJT�GSFRàFOUF�FN�EFDJTÜFT�SFMBUJWBT�B�MJUÓHJPT�OP�NFSDBEP�EF�DSÏEJUP�EP�RVF�OPT�SFMBUJWPT�
B�PQFSBÎÜFT�DPNFSDJBJT��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1212FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
12FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
"�iQPMJUJ[BÎÍPw�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�QPEF�SFTVMUBS
�DPNP�PCTFSWBEP�BDJNB
�EB�UFOUBUJWB�EP�KVJ[�EF�QSPUFHFS�
DFSUPT�HSVQPT�TPDJBJT�QFSDFCJEPT�DPNP�TFOEP�NBJT�GSBDPT�EP�RVF�B�PVUSB�QBSUF�OP�MJUÓHJP��0T�KVÓ[FT�GSFRàFOUF�
NFOUF�EFTDSFWFN�FTUF�DPNQPSUBNFOUP�DPNP�VN�QBQFM�TPDJBM�RVF�P�KVJ[�UFN�B�DVNQSJS��&TUF�UFNB�GPJ�FYQMPSBEP�
OB�QFTRVJTB�DPN�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�RVBOEP�TF�QFSHVOUPV�B�FTUFT�TF
�DPOGSPOUBEPT�DPN�B�OFDFTTJEBEF�EF�PQUBS�FO�
USF�EVBT�QPTJÎÜFT�FYUSFNBT�o�VNB�	"
�TFNQSF�SFTQFJUBS�PT�DPOUSBUPT
�JOEFQFOEFOUFNFOUF�EF�TVBT�SFQFSDVTTÜFT�
TPDJBJT
�F�B�PVUSB�	#
�EFDJEJS�EF�VNB�GPSNB�RVF�WJPMF�PT�DPOUSBUPT
�OB�CVTDB�EF�KVTUJÎB�TPDJBM�o
�QPS�RVBM�EBT�
EVBT�BMUFSOBUJWBT�FMFT�PQUBSJBN��"�HSBOEF�NBJPSJB�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�	��
��
�SFTQPOEFV�RVF�PQUBSJB�QFMB�TFHVOEB�
BMUFSOBUJWB�	5BCFMB��
��
&TUB�QPTJÎÍP�NBKPSJUÈSJB�EB�NBHJTUSBUVSB�DPOnJUB�DMBSBNFOUF�DPN�B�MØHJDB�CÈTJDB�RVF�TVTUFOUB�P�DPOUSBUP�F�P�QBQFM�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP�FN�GB[Ð�MP�WBMFS��/P�NÓOJNP
�FMB�JNQMJDB�BEJDJPOBS�PVUSB�GPOUF�EF�JODFSUF[B�B�RVBMRVFS�USBOT�
BÎÍP�CBTFBEB�FN�VN�DPOUSBUP��/P�MJNJUF
�FMB�JNQMJDB�RVF�BHFOUFT�FDPOÙNJDPT�SBDJPOBJT�QPEFN�PQUBS�QPS�OÍP�
QBSUJDJQBS�EF�DPOUSBUPT�DPN�QBSUFT�RVF�TFKBN�QFSDFCJEBT�DPNP�TFOEP�NBJT�GBWPSFDJEBT�EP�RVF�FMFT�QFMB�KVTUJÎB
�
B�NFOPT�RVF�IBKB�PVUSPT�NFDBOJTNPT�EF�FTUÓNVMP�BP�DVNQSJNFOUP�EP�DPOUSBUP�	QPS�FYFNQMP
�B�QFSTQFDUJWB�EF�
VN�OPWP�DPOUSBUP
�F�P�SJTDP�EP�PQPSUVOJTNP�OÍP�QFOBMJ[BEP�QFMP�KVEJDJÈSJP�TFKB�FNCVUJEP�OPT�QSFÎPT��&TUB�Ï�
VNB�FYQMJDBÎÍP�EF�QPSRVF�IÈ�UÍP�QPVDP�DSÏEJUP�JNPCJMJÈSJP�WPMVOUÈSJP�QBSB�GBNÓMJBT�QPCSFT��
"�QSPQPSÎÍP�EF�NBHJTUSBEPT�RVF�GBWPSFDFN�B�BMUFSOBUJWB�#�	iP�KVJ[�UFN�QBQFM�TPDJBM�B�DVNQSJS
�F�B�CVTDB�EB�
KVTUJÎB�TPDJBM�KVTUJmDB�EFDJTÜFT�RVF�WJPMFN�PT�DPOUSBUPTw
�OB�RVFTUÍP�BDJNB�BQSFTFOUBEB�UBNCÏN�WBSJB�EF�BDPSEP�
DPN�B�ÈSFB�EP�EJSFJUP�B�RVF�P�DBTP�TF�SFGFSF
�TFOEP�NBJT�BMUB�FN�MJUÓHJPT�RVF�FOWPMWFN�P�NFJP�BNCJFOUF
�EJSFJUPT�
EP�DPOTVNJEPS
�SFHVMBÎÍP�EF�TFSWJÎPT�QÞCMJDPT
�RVFTUÜFT�USBCBMIJTUBT�F�EF�QSFWJEÐODJB�TPDJBM�	5BCFMB��
��1PS�PVUSP�
MBEP
�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�TÍP�JODMJOBEPT�B�GBWPSFDFS�B�PQÎÍP�"�	iPT�DPOUSBUPT�EFWFN�TFS�TFNQSF�SFTQFJUBEPT
�JOEFQFO�
EFOUFNFOUF�EF�TVBT�SFQFSDVTTÜFT�TPDJBJTw
�RVBOEP�P�MJUÓHJP�FOWPMWF�RVFTUÜFT�DPNFSDJBJT
�EF�DSÏEJUP�F�JORVJMJOBUP��
/PUF�TF�RVF�FTTF�Ï�FTTFODJBMNFOUF�P�NFTNP�QBESÍP�PCTFSWBEP�OB�5BCFMB���QBSB�B�GSFRàÐODJB�DPN�RVF�PT�KVJ[FT�
JEFOUJmDBN�BT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�DPNP�TFOEP�iQPMJUJ[BEBTw��0�RVF�QBSFDF�SFMFWBOUF�QBSB�B�BOÈMJTF�FTQFDÓmDB�EFTUF�
UFYUP�Ï�B�QSPQPSÎÍP�NVJUP�NBJT�BMUB�EF�KVJ[FT�RVF�TF�JODMJOBN�QFMB�QPTJÎÍP�#�FN�EJTQVUBT�FOWPMWFOEP�USBOTBÎÜFT�
EF�DSÏEJUP�EP�RVF�OPT�DBTPT�RVF�FOWPMWFN�USBOTBÎÜFT�DPNFSDJBJT�FN�HFSBM��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1313FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
13FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
0T�DPOUSBUPT�TÍP�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�VNB�GPSNB�EF�BMPDBS�SJTDPT�FY�BOUF
�F�B�JODFSUF[B�TPCSF�TF�FTUB�BMPDBÎÍP�TFSÈ�
SFTQFJUBEB�FY�QPTU�SFEV[�FOPSNFNFOUF�B�VUJMJEBEF�EPT�DPOUSBUPT��&TUF��P�DBTP
�FN�QBSUJDVMBS
�EP�TFUPS�mOBO�
DFJSP��$PNP�PCTFSWBEP�QPS�4UJHMJU[�	����
�Q����
�iFOGPSDJOH�DPOUSBDUT��USBOTGFSSJOH
�TIBSJOH�BOE�QPPMJOH�SJTLT��
BOE�SFDPSEJOH�USBOTBDUJPOT
�<BSF>�BDUJWJUJFT�UIBU�NBLF�UIFN�<mOBODJBM�NBSLFUT>�UIF�ACSBJO��PG�UIF�FOUJSF�FDPOPNJD�
TZTUFN
�UIF�DFOUSBM�MPDVT�PG�EFDJTJPO�NBLJOH�w�/FTUF�TFOUJEP
�TF�PT�KVJ[FT�SFJOUFSQSFUBN�PT�UFSNPT�EPT�DPOUSBUPT�
EF�DSÏEJUP�EFQFOEFOEP�EP�SFTVMUBEP�FGFUJWP�EPT�FWFOUPT�FYQMJDJUB�PV�JNQMJDJUBNFOUF�DPOTJEFSBEPT�OP�DPOUSBUP
�
FTUFT�QPEFN�QFSEFS�TVB�VUJMJEBEF��
$POTJEFSF�TF
�QPS�FYFNQMP
�P�DBTP�EPT�DPOUSBUPT�EF�MFBTJOH�DPN�DPSSFÎÍP�DBNCJBM�FYJTUFOUFT�BOUFT�EB�EFTWBMP�
SJ[BÎÍP�EP�SFBM�FN�������1PSRVF�FMFT�USBOTGFSJBN�P�SJTDP�EB�EFTWBMPSJ[BÎÍP�EP�CBODP�QBSB�P�EFWFEPS
�TPCSF�FMFT�
JODJEJB�VNB�NFOPS�UBYB�EF�KVSPT
�P�RVF�PT�GB[JB�BUSBFOUFT�QBSB�PT�EFWFEPSFT��.BT�FSB�FWJEFOUF�RVF�B�EJGFSFOÎB�
FOUSF�PT�KVSPT�QBHPT�FN�DPOUSBUPT�JOEFYBEPT�BP�DÉNCJP�F�BRVFMFT�	CFN�NBJT�BMUPT
�EF�DPOUSBUPT�DPSSJHJEPT�QFMB�
JOnBÎÍP�FSB�VN�QSÐNJP�RVF�P�EFWFEPS�FTUBWB�SFDFCFOEP�QPS�BTTVNJS�P�SJTDP�EB�EFTWBMPSJ[BÎÍP��2VBOEP�PDPSSFV�
B�EFTWBMPSJ[BÎÍP
�QPSÏN
�PT�DPOUSBUPT�DPN�DPSSFÎÍP�DBNCJBM�TF�NPTUSBSBN�NBJT�DBSPT
�F�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�EFDJEJV�RVF�
PT�EFWFEPSFT�QPEFSJBN�QBHBS�TFVT�FNQSÏTUJNPT�DPN�B�	NVJUP�NBJT�CBJYB
�DPSSFÎÍP�QFMB�JOnBÎÍP
�B�EFTQFJUP�EF�
PT�CBODPT�UFSFN�EF�QBHBS�BPT�DSFEPSFT�FYUFSOPT�DPN�DPSSFÎÍP�DBNCJBM��0V�TFKB
�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�SFEJTUSJCVJV�FY�QPTU�
BT�SFTQPOTBCJMJEBEFT�EBT�QBSUFT�FN�EJGFSFOUFT�FTUBEPT�EB�OBUVSF[B
�BOVMBOEP�iVOJMBUFSBMNFOUFw�B�EJTUSJCVJÎÍP�EF�
SFTQPOTBCJMJEBEFT�BDFSUBEB�DPOUSBUVBMNFOUF�QFMBT�QBSUFT�OB�IPSB�EB�DPOUSBUBÎÍP��
"MHVOT�CBODPT�WÐFN�FTUB�UFOEÐODJB�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�WFSFN�TFV�QBQFM�DPNP�TFOEP�P�EF�QSPNPWFS�B�KVTUJÎB�
TPDJBM
�FN�MVHBS�EF�GB[FS�SFTQFJUBS�BT�MFJT�F�PT�DPOUSBUPT
�DPNP�VN�QSPCMFNB�DSÓUJDP�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP��.FTNP�RVF�FTUF�
QPTJDJPOBNFOUP�TFKB�NBJT�DPNVN�OB�QSJNFJSB�EP�RVF�OB�TFHVOEB�JOTUÉODJB
�F�FN�BMHVNBT�KVSJTEJÎÜFT�EP�RVF�FN�
PVUSBT
�F�RVF�FMBT�QPTTBN�TFS�SFWFSUJEBT�BQFMBOEP�QBSB�PT�USJCVOBJT�TVQFSJPSFT
�FMF�QPEF�FOGSBRVFDFS�TJHOJmDBUJ�
WBNFOUF�B�QSPUFÎÍP�BPT�EJSFJUPT�EPT�DSFEPSFT��1BSB�BQFMBS�BPT�USJCVOBJT�TVQFSJPSFT�PT�DSFEPSFT�UÐN�EF�HBTUBS�DPN�
BEWPHBEPT
�DVTUBT�KVEJDJBJT�FUD�
�F�FTQFSBS�VN�UFNQP�QPS�WF[FT�MPOHP�BUÏ�RVF�VNB�EFDJTÍP�TFKB�UPNBEB
�EFJYBOEP�
P�TFV�DBQJUBM�QBSBMJTBEP�OFTTF�QFSÓPEP�F�mDBOEP�WVMOFSÈWFM�B�WBSJBEPT�UJQPT�EF�RVFTUJPOBNFOUPT�QFMPT�EFWFEPSFT��
/P�mOBM
�P�CBODP�QPEF�WFODFS�P�MJUÓHJP�OB�KVTUJÎB
�NBT�QFSEFS�FN�WF[�EF�HBOIBS�EJOIFJSP�DPN�JTTP��
&TUF�UJQP�EF�BUJWJTNP�KVEJDJBM�CBTFJB�TF�FN�HSBOEF�NFEJEB�OPT�BNQMPT�EJSFJUPT�TPDJBJT�F�JOEJWJEVBJT�JOTDSJUPT�
OB�DPOTUJUVJÎÍP
�EPT�RVBJT�PT�KVÓ[FT�QPEFN�EFSJWBS�BSHVNFOUPT�QBSB�EFDJEJS�FN�DPOUSÈSJP�BP�FTUJQVMBEP�OB�MFH�
JTMBÎÍP�FTQFDÓmDB�TPCSF�VN�EFUFSNJOBEP�BTTVOUP��*TUP�F�B�FTUSVUVSB�NPOPDSÈUJDB�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP�CSBTJMFJSP�EÍP�BPT�
KVÓ[FT�HSBOEF�nFYJCJMJEBEF�OB�BQMJDBÎÍP�EB�MFJ��"TTJN
�B�KVSJTQSVEÐODJB�F�PT�QBESÜFT�EF�EFDJTÍP�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�
QPEFN�TFS�UÍP�PV�NBJT�JNQPSUBOUFT�EP�RVF�B�QSØQSJB�MFJ��²�GSFRàFOUF
�QPSUBOUP
�RVF�RVBOEP�VNB�OPWB�MFHJTMB�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1414FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
14FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
ÎÍP�Ï�BQSPWBEB�QBSB�iDMBSJmDBSw�DFSUPT�BTQFDUPT�EB�MFHJTMBÎÍP�PV�NVEBS�B�GPSNB�RVF�PT�KVÓ[FT�UFOEFN�B�EFDJEJS
�
PT�CBODPT�PQUFN�QPS�FTQFSBS�RVF�VN�OÞNFSP�HSBOEF�P�TVmDJFOUF�EF�EFDJTÜFT�FTUBCFMFÎB�B� JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�EPT�
NBHJTUSBEPT�TPCSF�FTTB�RVFTUÍP�BOUFT�EF�FTUSVUVSBSFN�PQFSBÎÜFT�CBTFBEBT�OFTTB�OPWB�MFHJTMBÎÍP��6N�FYFNQMP�
EFTUB�BUJUVEF�Ï�B�MFJ�RVF�DSJPV�P�4JTUFNB�'JOBODFJSP�*NPCJMJÈSJP
�FTUFOEFOEP�P�VTP�EB�BMJFOBÎÍP�mEVDJÈSJB�QBSB�P�
mOBODJBNFOUP�JNPCJMJÈSJP��
"�JODFSUF[B�OB�BQMJDBÎÍP�EPT�DPOUSBUPT�JOUSPEV[JEB�QFMB�JNQSFWJTJCJMJEBEF�EBT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�UFN�PVUSBT�
DBVTBT�BMÏN�EB�QPMJUJ[BÎÍP��/B�QFTRVJTB�EF�1JOIFJSP�	����
�WÈSJPT�BTQFDUPT�EB�GPSNB�FN�RVF�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�PQFSB�
GPSBN�BQPOUBEPT�QFMPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�DPNP�DPOUSJCVJOEP�EF�GPSNB�SFMFWBOUF�QBSB�SFEV[JS�B�QSFWJTJCJMJEBEF�EBT�
EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT��4ÍP�EJHOPT�EF�OPUB�FOUSF�FTUFT�BT�EFmDJÐODJBT�EP�PSEFOBNFOUP�MFHBM�F�KVSÓEJDP
�UBNCÏN�QFS�
DFCJEPT�DPNP�DBVTBT�JNQPSUBOUFT�EB�NPSPTJEBEF�KVEJDJBM
�P�SFDVSTP�GSFRàFOUF�B�NFEJEBT�MJNJOBSFT�F�B�UFOEÐODJB�
B�RVF�BT�EFDJTÜFT�TFKBN�CBTFBEBT�FN�EFUBMIFT�QSPDFTTVBJT��&TUFT�EPJT�ÞMUJNPT�TÍP�GBUPSFT�RVF�TF�SFMBDJPOBN�B�
VN�QSPCMFNB�MFWBOUBEP�QPS�WÈSJPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�FOUSFWJTUBEPT
�RVBM�TFKB
�RVF�Ï�DPNVN�RVF�BT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�
OVODB�DIFHVFN�B�DPOTJEFSBS�P�NÏSJUP�EP�DBTP�FN�TJ��0VUSBT�DBSBDUFSÓTUJDBT�EB�GPSNB�DPNP�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�PQFSB�
UBNCÏN�UÐN�JOnVÐODJB�TPCSF�P�EFTFNQFOIP�EP�NFSDBEP�EF�DSÏEJUP��1SJNFJSP
�IÈ�EJGFSFOÎBT�JNQPSUBOUFT�OB�
GPSNB�FN�RVF�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�PQFSB�OPT�WÈSJPT�FTUBEPT
�F�NFTNP�EFOUSP�EF�VN�NFTNP�FTUBEP�B�RVBMJEBEF�EP�KV�
EJDJÈSJP�QPEF�WBSJBS�EF�VNB�KVSJTEJÎÍP�QBSB�PVUSB��4FHVOEP
�P�KVEJDJÈSJP
�DPNP�RVBMRVFS�PVUSB�JOTUJUVJÎÍP
�OÍP�
FTUÈ�MJWSF�EF�QSPCMFNBT�EF�DPSSVQÎÍP�F�JOnVÐODJB�QPMÓUJDB
�RVF�TÍP�QFSDFCJEBT�DPNP�NBJT�QSPWÈWFJT�EF�PDPSSFS�FN�
DFSUPT�FTUBEPT�EP�RVF�FN�PVUSPT
�F�UÐN�P�TJTUFNB�mOBODFJSP�DPNP�VN�BMWP�GSFRàFOUF�	WFS�"JUI�����
��
5FSDFJSP
�P�EFTFNQFOIP�EP� KVEJDJÈSJP�QPEFSJB� TFS� TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF�NFMIPSBEP�DPN�SFGPSNBT�EF�HFTUÍP
�
PSHBOJ[BÎÍP�F�BQFSGFJÎPBNFOUP�FN�DFSUBT�ÈSFBT��%F�VN�MBEP
�P�DPOIFDJNFOUP�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�TPCSF�DPNP�P�
NFSDBEPT�mOBODFJSP�GVODJPOB�QPEFSJB�TFS�BNQMJBEP
� MFWBOEP�QSPWBWFMNFOUF�B�VNB�SFEVÎÍP�EB�JODFSUF[B��%F�
PVUSP� MBEP
�P� KVEJDJÈSJP�	F�PT�DBSUØSJPT� KVEJDJBJT
�FN�QBSUJDVMBS
�OFDFTTJUBN�TFS� UFDOPMPHJDBNFOUF�BUVBMJ[BEPT
�
EF�GPSNB�RVF�PT�DSFEPSFT�QPTTBN�PCUFS�JOGPSNBÎÍP�EF�GPSNB�SÈQJEB�F�DPOmÈWFM�o�P�NFTNP�WBMF�QBSB�PT�WÈSJPT�
SFHJTUSPT�QÞCMJDPT�F�KVOUBT�DPNFSDJBT�VUJMJ[BEPT�QFMPT�DSFEPSFT�QBSB�DIFDBS�TPCSF�B�JEPOFJEBEF�F�B�DBQBDJEBEF�EF�QBHBNFOUP�EPT�QPUFODJBJT�UPNBEPSFT�EF�FNQSÏTUJNPT��/B�BVTÐODJB�EFTTF�BDFTTP�SÈQJEP
�DPOmÈWFM�F�Ë�EJTUÉODJB
�
PT�DSFEPSFT�JODPSSFN�VN�DVTUP�FMFWBEP�QBSB�BWBMJBS�TF�QPEFN�PV�OÍP�PQFSBS�DPN�VN�EFUFSNJOBEP�DMJFOUF��
*7���0CTFSWBÎÜFT�'JOBJT�
&TUF�UFYUP�DIBNPV�B�BUFOÎÍP�QBSB�EVBT�RVFTUÜFT�QSJODJQBJT�SFMBUJWBT�Ë�QSPUFÎÍP�MFHBM�F�KVEJDJBM�EPT�DSFEPSFT�OP�
#SBTJM��1SJNFJSP
�FORVBOUP�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�TVCTUBOUJWB�OÍP�EJGFSF�NVJUP�EB�FODPOUSBEB�FN�PVUSPT�QBÓTFT�EB�USBEJÎÍP�
EP�DJWJM�MBX�GSBODÐT
�F��QFSDFCJEB�QFMPT�DSFEPSFT�DPNP�TFOEP�FN�HFSBM�BEFRVBEB
�FYJTUF�VNB�BNQMB�DPODPSEÉO�
DJB�EF�RVF�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�QSPDFTTVBM�Ï�QSPCMFNÈUJDB
�QFSNJUJOEP�NVJUBT�GPSNBT�EF�EFWFEPSFT�NBM�JOUFODJPOBEPT�
QPTUFSHBSFN�VNB�EFDJTÍP�F�TVB�BQMJDBÎÍP��0T�QSPCMFNBT�DPN�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�QSPDFTTVBM�TÍP�QSPWBWFMNFOUF�B�QSJODJ�
QBM�DBVTB�EB�NPSPTJEBEF�EB�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�EF�EÓWJEBT
�RVF�PT�CBODPT�FOUFOEFN�TFS�P�QSJODJQBM�QSPCMFNB�EP�
KVEJDJÈSJP�CSBTJMFJSP��&TUFT�QSPCMFNBT�OÍP�TÍP
�QPSÏN
�FYDMVTJWPT�EF�EJTQVUBT�FOWPMWFOEP�PQFSBÎÜFT�EF�DSÏEJUP
�
FYJTUJOEP�VN�RVBTF�DPOTFOTP�FOUSF�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�CSBTJMFJSPT�EF�RVF�B�NPSPTJEBEF�EB�KVTUJÎB�QPEF�EJNJOVJS�
TJHOJmDBUJWBNFOUF�DPN�VNB�NFMIPSB�EFTTB�MFHJTMBÎÍP��
4FHVOEP
�BT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�FN�EJTQVUBT�FOWPMWFOEP�PQFSBÎÜFT�EF�DSÏEJUP�TÍP�QFSDFCJEBT�DPNP�TFOEP�FN�
HFSBM�QSØ�EFWFEPS��&TUB�BUJUVEF�GSFRàFOUFNFOUF�SFnFUF�VN�DFSUP�BUJWJTNP�KVEJDJBM
�DPN�BMHVOT�KVÓ[FT�EFTDPOTJEF�
SBOEP�P�FTUBCFMFDJEP�OB�MFJ�PV�OPT�DPOUSBUPT�QBSB�QSPNPWFS�B�iKVTUJÎB�TPDJBMw
�TF�BMJOIBOEP�DPN�B�QBSUF�NBJT�
GSBDB�OB�EJTQVUB
�VTVBMNFOUF�P�EFWFEPS
�DPOUSB�B�QBSUF�NBJT�GPSUF
�P�DSFEPS��*TTP�GB[�DPN�RVF�B�KVSJTQSVEÐODJB�F�
PT�QBESÜFT�EF�DPNQPSUBNFOUP�EP�KVEJDJÈSJP�EFTFNQFOIFN�VN�QBQFM�UÍP�JNQPSUBOUF�RVBOUP�B�MFJ�OB�SFHVMBÎÍP�
EBT�EJTQVUBT�FOWPMWFOEP�RVFTUÜFT�DSFEJUÓDJBT��"T�JOUFSQSFUBÎÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�TPCSF�KVSPT�DBQJUBMJ[BEPT�	BOBUPDJTNP
�
B�MJRVJEF[�F�B�DFSUF[B�EF�DFSUPT�UÓUVMPT�EF�DSÏEJUP
�F�B�QPTTJCJMJEBEF�EF�FYFDVÎÍP�EF�DFSUPT�UJQPT�EF�HBSBOUJBT�TÍP�
FYFNQMPT�EF�TJUVBÎÜFT�EFTTF�UJQP��0T�DSFEPSFT�VTVBMNFOUF�QSFGFSFN�OÍP�VUJMJ[BS�EFUFSNJOBEBT�MFHJTMBÎÜFT�BUÏ�RVF�
FTTF�DPSQP�EF�KVSJTQSVEÐODJB�FTUFKB�GPSNBEP��*TUP�BKVEB�B�FYQMJDBS
�QPS�FYFNQMP
�QPSRVF�B�BMJFOBÎÍP�mEVDJÈSJB�EF�
WFÓDVMPT�Ï�UÍP�CFN�BDFJUB�OP�mOBODJBNFOUP�EF�BVUPNØWFJT
�FORVBOUP�OP�mOBODJBNFOUP�EF�JNØWFJT�OÍP�UFWF�P�
JNQBDUP�FTQFSBEP��
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1515FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
15FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
*TUP�TVHFSF�RVF�B�ÈSFB�NBJT�QSPNJTTPSB�EF�SFGPSNB�OP�DVSUP�QSB[P�QBSB�BHJMJ[BS�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�Ï�NVEBS�P�$ØEJHP�
EF�1SPDFTTP
� VNB� JOJDJBUJWB� RVF�QSPWBWFMNFOUF� TFS� BQPJBEB�QFMB�NBHJTUSBUVSB��6NB�NFEJEB� DPNQMFNFOUBS�
QPEFSJB�TFS�B�BCFSUVSB�EPT�+VJ[BEPT�&TQFDJBJT�QBSB�B�DPCSBOÎB�KVEJDJBM�EF�QFRVFOPT�FNQSÏTUJNPT��+È�BT�JOJDJBUJWBT�
WPMUBEBT�QBSB�NVEBS�B�MFHJTMBÎÍP�TVCTUBOUJWB�QBSB�GPSUBMFDFS�PT�EJSFJUPT�EPT�DSFEPSFT
�MJNJUBOEP�P�FTDPQP�QBSB�P�
BUJWJTNP�KVEJDJBM
�QPEFN�UFS�SFTVMUBEPT�NPEFTUPT
�TF�QFSTFHVJEBT�TFN�VN�FTGPSÎP�DPNQMFNFOUBS�EF�USBCBMIBS�
DPN�PT�NBHJTUSBEPT�F�B�TPDJFEBEF�FN�HFSBM�QBSB�NPTUSBS�RVF�EFDJTÜFT�RVF�CFOFmDJBN�VN�EFWFEPS�FTQFDÓmDP�FN�
VNB�EFUFSNJOBEB�TJUVBÎÍP�QPEFN�UFS�SFQFSDVTTÜFT�NBJT�BNQMBT�RVF�QSFKVEJRVFN�B�QPQVMBÎÍP�EF�EFWFEPSFT��
7BMF�EJ[FS
�Ï�QSFDJTP�SFDPOIFDFS�RVF�P�BUJWJTNP�KVEJDJBM�OÍP�Ï�P�SFTVMUBEP�EF�VNB�MFHJTMBÎÍP�TVCTUBOUJWB�JOBE�
FRVBEB��1FMP�DPOUSÈSJP
�FMF�Ï�P�SFTVMUBEP�EF�VN�QSPDFTTP�QPMÓUJDP�RVF�UFN�USBOTGFSJEP�QBSB�P�KVEJDJÈSJP�B�TPMVÎÍP�
EF�DPOnJUPT�QPMÓUJDPT�F� TPDJBJT��&
�DPNP�VN�QSPDFTTP�QPMÓUJDP
�QSFDJTB� TFS� USBUBEP�UBNCÏN�OB�BSFOB�QPMÓUJDB
�
BUSBWÏT�EB�DPOTUJUVJÎÍP�EF�HSVQPT�EF�BQPJP�Ë�BQMJDBÎÍP�SJHPSPTB�EB�MFHJTMBÎÍP�F�EPT�DPOUSBUPT��
/FTUF�TFOUJEP
�Ï�JNQPSUBOUF�FTDMBSFDFS�F�FEVDBS�PT�BUVBJT�F�GVUVSPT�KVÓ[FT�B�SFTQFJUP�EP�DPOUFÞEP�FDPOÙNJDP�
EBT�DBVTBT�FN�RVF�FTUÍP�FOWPMWJEPT
�BT�SB[ÜFT�FDPOÙNJDBT�EF�BMHVNBT�DMÈVTVMBT�BQBSFOUFNFOUF�EFTCBMBODFBEBT�
F�BT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�NBDSPFDPOÙNJDBT�EF�TVBT�EFDJTÜFT
�PDPSSJEBT�B�QBSUJS�EB�BEBQUBÎÍP�EPT�BHFOUFT�BP�QBESÍP�EF�
DPNQPSUBNFOUP�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT��*TTP�QPEF�TFS�GFJUP�OBT�GBDVMEBEFT�EF�EJSFJUP�F�OBT�&TDPMBT�EB�.BHJTUSBUVSB
�NBT�
UBNCÏN�QFMBT�FNQSFTBT�OB�EFGFTB�EB�TVBT�DBVTBT
�RVBOEP�BQSFTFOUBEBT�BP�KVEJDJÈSJP��
'JOBMNFOUF
�Ï�QSFDJTP�OÍP�TPCSF�FTUJNBS�B�JNQPSUÉODJB�EPT�GBUPSFT�MFHBJT�F�KVEJDJBJT�OB�FYQMJDBÎÍP�EPT�BMUPT�
TQSFBET�CBODÈSJPT� F�EP�CBJYP� WPMVNF�EF� DSÏEJUP�OP�#SBTJM��"� JOTUBCJMJEBEF�NBDSPFDPOÙNJDB
� B� FMFWBEB�EÓWJ�
EB�QÞCMJDB
�PT� JNQPTUPT�FUD�� UBNCÏN�UÐN�VNB� JOnVÐODJB�EFUFSNJOBOUF�OB�FTUSVUVSB�EP�NFSDBEP�EF�DSÏEJUP�
CSBTJMFJSP��&OUSF�PVUSBT�DPJTBT
�QPSRVF�KVSPT�BMUPT�TÍP�VNB�DBVTB�JNQPSUBOUF�EP�BUJWJTNP�KVEJDJBM��
3FGFSÐODJBT�
"GBOBTJFĊ
�5
�1��-IBDFS�F�.��/BLBOF
�iɨF�%FUFSNJOBOUT�PG�#BOL�*OUFSFTU�4QSFBET�JO�
#SB[JMw
�$FOUSBM�#BOL�PG�#SB[JM
�������
"JUI
�.
�i0�*NQBDUP�EP�+VEJDJÈSJP�OBT�"UJWJEBEFT�EBT�*OTUJUVJÎÜFT�'JOBODFJSBTw
�JO�"��$��
1JOIFJSP
�0�+VEJDJÈSJP�F�B�&DPOPNJB�OP�#SBTJM
�������
#FDL
�5�
�i*NQFEJNFOUT�UP�UIF�%FWFMPQNFOU�BOE�&ċDJFODZ�PG�'JOBODJBM�*OUFSNFEJBUJPO�JO�
#SB[JMw
�1PMJDZ�3FTFBSDI�8PSLJOH�1BQFS*
�O������
�8PSME�#BOL
�������
(BMJOEP
�"��F�"��.JDDP
�i$SFEJUPS�1SPUFDUJPO�BOE�'JOBODJBM�$ZDMFTw
�8PSLJOH�1BQFS
�O����
�
*OUFS�"NFSJDBO�%FWFMPQNFOU�#BOL
�������
(BMJOEP
�"�
�i$SFEJUPS�3JHIUT�BOE�UIF�$SFEJU�.BSLFU��8IFSF�EP�8F�4UBOE w
�8PSLJOH�
1BQFS*
�O�����
�*OUFS�"NFSJDBO�%FWFMPQNFOU�#BOL
�������
-BFWFO
�-��F�(��.BKPOJ
�i%PFT�+VEJDJBM�&ċDJFODZ�-PXFS�UIF�$PTU�PG�$SFEJU w
�8PSME�#BOL�
1PMJDZ�3FTFBSDI�8PSLJOH�1BQFS
�O�����
�#BODP�.VOEJBM
�������
-B�1PSUB
�3�
�'��-PQF[�EF�4JMBOFT
�"��4IMFJGFS�F�3��7JTIOZ
�i-BX�BOE�'JOBODFw
�+PVSOBM�PG�
1PMJUJDBM�&DPOPNZ
�WPM�����
�O��
�������
-PSB
�&�
�i4USVDUVSBM�3FGPSNT�JO�-BUJO�"NFSJDB��8IBU�)BT�#FFO�3FGPSNFE�BOE�)PX�UP�
.FBTVSF�JU w
�8PSLJOH�1BQFS
�O����
�*OUFS�"NFSJDBO�%FWFMPQNFOU�#BOL
�������
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1616FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
16FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
1BEJMMB
�"��F�"��3FRVFKP
�iɨF�$PTUT�BOE�CFOFmUT�PG�UIF�4USJDU�1SPUFDUJPO�PG�$SFEJUPS�
3JHIUT��ɨFPSZ�BOE�&WJEFODFw
�8PSLJOH�1BQFS
�O����
�*OUFS�"NFSJDBO�%FWFMPQNFOU�
#BOL
�������
1JOIFJSP
�"��$��	PSH�
�+VEJDJÈSJP�F�&DPOPNJB�OP�#SBTJM
�&EJUPSB�4VNBSÏ
�4ÍP�1BVMP
�������
1JOIFJSP
�"��$��F�$��$BCSBM
�i$SFEJU�.BSLFUT�JO�#SB[JM��ɨF�3PMF�PG�UIF�+VEJDJBSZ�BOE�0UIFS�
*OTUJUVUJPOTw
�JO�.��1BHBOP�	FE
�%FGVTJOH�%FGBVMU��*ODFOUJWFT�BOE�*OTUJUVUJPOT
�*%#
�
������
1JOIFJSP
�"��$�
�i+VEHFT��7JFX�PO�UIF�+VEJDJBSZ�BOE�&DPOPNJDTw
�QBQFS�QSFTFOUFE�BU�UIF�
TFNJOBS�3FGPSNB�EP�+VEJDJÈSJP��1SPCMFNBT
�%FTBmPT�F�1FSTQFDUJWBT
�*%&41
�4ÍP�
1BVMP
�"QSJM���
�������
4UJHMJU[
�+��&�
�iɨF�SPMF�PG�UIF�TUBUF�JO�mOBODJBM�NBSLFUTw��1SPDFFEJOHT�PG�UIF�8PSME�#BOL�
"OOVBM�$POGFSFODF�PO�%FWFMPQNFOU�&DPOPNJDT��������������
�������
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1717FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
17FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
��\�!5,!��
%JTDVTTÍP�EP�DBTP�iHSPPUCPPNw�
0�DBTP�B�TFS�USBCBMIBEP�Ï�CBTUBOUF�DPNQMFYP��5SBUB�TF�EF�VNB�TJUVBÎÍP�WFSÓEJDB
�FN�RVF�TF�DIPDBN�EJWFSTPT�
JOUFSFTTFT�SFBJT
�FTUBSÍP�FN�KPHP�WJEBT
�MJCFSEBEFT
�QBUSJNÙOJPT
�USBCBMIP�F�WBMPSFT�EJWFSTPT�EF�EJGFSFOUFT�BUPSFT�
TPDJBJT��"�EJTDVTTÍP�QSJODJQBM�HJSBSÈ�FN�UPSOP�EF�DPNP�EFTFOWPMWFS�DSJUÏSJPT�QBSB�EFDJEJS�VNB�RVFSFMB�FOWPMWFO�
EP�EJSFJUPT�JOEJWJEVBJT�F�TPDJBJT�o�QBSUJDVMBSNFOUF
�P�EJSFJUP�Ë�NPSBEJB�F�P�EJSFJUP�EBT�DSJBOÎBT�Ë�QSPUFÎÍP�o
�BT�
QPMÓUJDBT�QÞCMJDBT�F�PT�JNQBDUPT�EF�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�TPCSF�B�SBDJPOBMJEBEF�EF�QSPHSBNBT�EP�HPWFSOP��0T�GBUPT�
BQSFTFOUBEPT�GPSBN�BEBQUBEPT�EF�VNB�EFDJTÍP�EB�$PSUF�$POTUJUVDJPOBM�4VM�"GSJDBOB�
"UPSFT
0T�EFTBCSJHBEPT
/P�mOBM�EB�EÏDBEB�EF���
�BQSPYJNBEBNFOUF�����BEVMUPT�F�����DSJBOÎBT�WJWJBN�FN�8BMMBDFEFOF�,SBBJGPO�
UFJO
�«GSJDB�EP�4VM
�FN�DPOEJÎÜFT�QSFDÈSJBT
�F�TFN�BDFTTP�B�OFOIVN�UJQP�EF�TFSWJÎP�QÞCMJDP��0T�EFTBCSJHBEPT�
NVEBSBN�TF�QSPHSFTTJWBNFOUF�EVSBOUF�B�EÏDBEB�EF������QBSB�VNB�ÈSFB�QSJWBEB�CBMEJB
�OB�KVSJTEJÎÍP�EB�NVOJDJ�
QBMJEBEF�EF�0PTUFOCFSH��'PJ�JOUFOUBEB�FN����EF�NBJP�EF������VNB�BÎÍP�EF�SFJOUFHSBÎÍP�EF�QPTTF��0T�CBSSBDÜFT�
F�B�QBSDB�JOGSB�FTUSVUVSB�RVF�IBWJB�TJEP�DPOTUSVÓEB�GPSBN�EFNPMJEPT��"QØT�TFSFN�FYQVMTPT�EB�ÈSFB�BOUFSJPS
�PT�
EFTBCSJHBEPT�EJSJHJSBN�TF�B�VN�QBSRVF�FTQPSUJWP�FN�8BMMBDFEFOF
�POEF�MFWBOUBSBN�BDBNQBNFOUP�UFNQPSÈSJP��
&N�WJTUB�EBT�QÏTTJNBT�DPOEJÎÜFT
�QBSUJDVMBSNFOUF�QBSB�BT�DSJBOÎBT
�GPSBN�BKVEBEPT�QPS�EJWFSTBT�FOUJEBEFT�BTTJT�
UFODJBJT��6NB�EFMBT�GPJ�Ë�+VTUJÎB
�FOUSBOEP�DPN�BÎÍP�DPOUSB�BT�FTGFSBT�MPDBM
�QSPWJODJBM�F�GFEFSBM�EP�HPWFSOP�QBSB�
DPOTFHVJS�BCSJHP�UFNQPSÈSJP�QBSB�BT�DSJBOÎBT�F�BEVMUPT��&N���EF�KVOIP�EP�NFTNP�BOP
�P�+VJ[�+PTNBO�EFGFSJV�
EF�GPSNB�MJNJOBS�RVF�P�$FOUSP�$PNVOJUÈSJP�EF�8BMMBDFEFOF�GPTTF�VUJMJ[BEP
�HSBUVJUBNFOUF
�QBSB�BDPNPEBS�BT�
DSJBOÎBT�F�VN�QBJ�PV�BEVMUP�SFTQPOTÈWFM�
0T�HPWFSOPT�NVOJDJQBM
�FTUBEVBM�F�GFEFSBM�
"�$POTUJUVJÎÍP�EB�«GSJDB�EP�4VM� Ï� CBTUBOUF� SFDFOUF�� 4FHVJOEP� B� MJOIB�EBT� DPOTUJUVJÎÜFT�RVF� JODPSQPSBN�
EJSFJUPT�IVNBOPT�EF�UFSDFJSB�F�RVBSUB�HFSBÎÜFT�DPOTUBOUFT�EF�$POWFOÎÜFT�*OUFSOBDJPOBJT
�FMB�QPTTVJ�VN�HSBOEF�
DBQÓUVMP�TPCSF�EJSFJUPT�TØDJP�FDPOÙNJDPT��0�BSU����
�QPS�FYFNQMP
�QSFWÐ�RVF�UPEP�DJEBEÍP�UFSÈ�EJSFJUP�B�VN�
BCSJHP�	TIFMUFS
��"MÏN�EJTTP
�P�BSU�����	TPCSF�PT�EJSFJUPT�EB�DSJBOÎB
�FTUBCFMFDF�RVF�UPEB�DSJBOÎB�EFWF�UFS�EJSFJUP�B�
NPSBEJB�BEFRVBEB�QBSB�TFV�QMFOP�EFTFOWPMWJNFOUP��%FTEF�B�NFUBEF�EB�EÏDBEB�EF������PT�HPWFSOPT�NVOJDJQBM
�
FTUBEVBM�F�GFEFSBM�UÐN�BHJEP�QBSB�JNQMFNFOUBS�VNB�QPMÓUJDB�IBCJUBDJPOBM�DPOKVOUB��&N�EFDPSSÐODJB�EB�DSJTF�IB�
CJUBDJPOBM�F�EB�FOPSNF�QPQVMBÎÍP�TFN�UFUP
�VN�QSPHSBNB�OBDJPOBM�EF�IBCJUBÎÍP�GPJ�BSUJDVMBEP
�EF�NPEP�B�EBS�
WB[ÍP�Ë�EFNBOEB�SFQSJNJEB�QPS�NPSBEJB�QPQVMBS��/P�FOUBOUP
�P�QSPHSBNB�DSJBEP�FOGSFOUB�EJWFSTPT�PCTUÈDVMPT�
QBSB�TFS�DPMPDBEP�FN�QSÈUJDB��3FDVSTPT�FTDBTTPT
�DPOUJOHFODJBNFOUP
�NPOUBHFN�EBT�FTUSVUVSBT�EF�DPMBCPSBÎÍP�
FOUSF�PT�EJWFSTPT�FOUFT�GFEFSBUJWPT
�BSUJDVMBÎÍP�DPN�PVUSBT�FOUJEBEFT�o�UPEPT�FTTFT�QSPCMFNBT�UPSOBN�B�JNQMF�
NFOUBÎÍP�EB�QPMÓUJDB�EF�NPSBEJB�NVJUP�EJGÓDJM�
0�+VEJDJÈSJP�TVM�BGSJDBOP
$PN�VNB�EBT�$POTUJUVJÎÜFT�DPNQBSBUJWBNFOUF�NBJT�SFDFOUFT�F�BWBOÎBEBT�OP�NVOEP
�B�«GSJDB�EP�4VM�UPS�
OPV�TF�VN�MBCPSBUØSJP�QBSB�FYQFSJÐODJBT�KVEJDJÈSJBT��4VB�$BSUB�JODPSQPSB�VNB�TÏSJF�EF�HBSBOUJBT�TPDJBJT�F�FDPOÙ�
NJDBT�RVF
�OP�FOUBOUP
�BJOEB�OFDFTTJUBN�EF�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�QBSB�TFSFN�QPTUBT�FN�QSÈUJDB��0�+VEJDJÈSJP
�OP�FOUBO�
UP
�SFQPVTB�TPCSF�VNB�MJOIB�UÐOVF��QPS�VN�MBEP
�QPSRVF�UFN�RVF�EBS�WB[ÍP�B�VNB�EFNBOEB�TPDJBM�SFQSJNJEB
�
UÓQJDB�EF�QBÓT�FN�EFTFOWPMWJNFOUP
�NBT�RVF�GPJ�FYBDFSCBEB�QPS�BOPT�EF�"QBSUIFJE�TPDJBM��1PS�PVUSP�MBEP
�EFWF�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1818FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
18FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
TFS�VNB�GPOUF�EF�FTUBCJMJEBEF
�TFSWJOEP�EF�NFEJBEPS�EPT�HSBOEFT�DPOnJUPT�QPMÓUJDP�TPDJBJT��*TTP�QPSRVF�B�OPWB�
EFNPDSBDJB�JOUFS�SBDJBM�TVM�BGSJDBOB�Ï
�DPNP�GPJ�SFTTBMUBEP
�SFDFOUF�o�OFDFTTJUB
�QPSUBOUP
�EF�DPOTPMJEBÎÍP��/FTTBT�
DPOEJÎÜFT
�BÎÜFT�EF�HSBOEF�JNQBDUP�OB�+VTUJÎB�QPEFN�FWFOUVBMNFOUF�JNQMJDBS�FN�QFSEB�EF�MFHJUJNJEBEF�EB�QBSUF�
EF�HPWFSOPT�EFNPDSBUJDBNFOUF�FMFJUPT�
'BUPT
0�1SPDFTTP�OB�+VTUJÎB
0T�EFTBCSJHBEPT�EF�(SPPUCPPN�MFWBSBN�TVB�DBVTB�BP�USJCVOBM��"QSFTFOUBSBN�EJWFSTPT�BSHVNFOUPT�iQSJODJQJP�
MØHJDPTw�FN�TVB�FYQPTJÎÍP��"mSNBSBN�RVF�P�EJSFJUP�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM�B�BCSJHP�EFWFSJB�TFS�JOUFSQSFUBEP�EF�NPEP�B�
JODMVJS�VN�NÓOJNP�EF�DPOEJÎÜFT�EF�NPSBEJB�VOJWFSTBMJ[ÈWFJT
�FORVBOUP�PT�QSPHSBNBT�TPDJBJT�RVF�WJTBN��QSP�
HSFTTJWB�SFBMJ[BÎÍP�EF�NPSBEJB�BEFRVBEB�B�UPEPT�GPTTFN�JNQMFNFOUBEPT��&TTB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�BEWÏN�EF�VNB�MFJUV�
SB�EJSFUB
�UBOUP�EP�UFYUP�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM
�DPNP�EB�$POWFOÎÍP�*OUFSOBDJPOBM�EPT�%JSFJUPT�&DPOÙNJDPT
�4PDJBJT�F�
$VMUVSBJT�EB�0/6�	����
�F�EB�$POWFOÎÍP�*OUFSOBDJPOBM�TPCSF�PT�%JSFJUPT�EB�$SJBOÎB�	����
��
0T�HPWFSOPT�GFEFSBM
�QSPWJODJBM�F�NVOJDJQBM�DPOUSBQVTFSBN�SB[ÜFT�EF�QPMÓUJDB�QÞCMJDB�QBSB�SFDVTBS�BT�QSFUFO�
TÜFT�EPT�BVUPSFT��&N�QSJNFJSP�MVHBS
�VNB�QPMÓUJDB�QÞCMJDB�SBDJPOBM�F�DPOTUSVÓEB�EF�GPSNB�B�JOUFHSBS�BT�BÎÜFT�OPT�
EJWFSTPT�OÓWFJT�EF�HPWFSOP�FTUBSJB�TFOEP�QPTUB�FN�QSÈUJDB��*TTP�TJHOJmDB�RVF�P�BSUJHP����EB�$POTUJUVJÎÍP�TVM�BGSJ�
DBOB�OÍP�UFSJB�TJEP�WJPMBEP��'PJ�PGFSFDJEB�FYUFOTB�FWJEÐODJB�EP�BOEBNFOUP�EP�QSPHSBNB�OBDJPOBM�EF�NPSBEJB��
&N�TFHVOEP�MVHBS
�UFOEP�FN�WJTUB�RVF�PT�SFDVSTPT�EJTQPOÓWFJT�QBSB�JNQMFNFOUBÎÍP�EF�QPMÓUJDBT�EF�NPSBEJB�
TÍP�FTDBTTPT
�QSPQPSDJPOBS�BCSJHP�UFNQPSÈSJP�BPT�BVUPSFT�JNQMJDBSJB�QSFKVÓ[PT�BP�QSPHSBNB�OBDJPOBM��1PS�ÞMUJNP
�
GPJ�BSHVNFOUBEP�RVF�P�EJSFJUP�EBT�DSJBOÎBT�Ë�NPSBEJB�QSFWJTUP�OP�BSUJHP����Ï
�OB�WFSEBEF
�VNB�PCSJHBÎÍP�RVF�
EFWF�TFS�BEJNQMJEB�QFMPT�QBJT�F�OÍP�QFMP�&TUBEP��
"MJÈT
�DPOTJEFSBOEP�TF�RVF�Ï�EP�JOUFSFTTF�EB�QSØQSJB�DSJBOÎB�QFSNBOFDFS�DPN�B�GBNÓMJB
�OÍP�QPEFSJB�FYJTUJS�
VN�EJSFJUP�FN�TFQBSBEP�EF�BCSJHP
�EJSFJUP�FTTF�EF�UJUVMBSJEBEF�BQFOBT�EBT�DSJBOÎBT��&N�DPOTFRàÐODJB
�DPOTJEF�
SBOEP�TF�RVF�P�EJTQPTUP�OP�BSUJHP�EFWFSJB�TFS�JOUFSQSFUBEP�DPNP�NPSBEJB�OP�DPOUFYUP�GBNJMJBS
�RVBMRVFS�EFDJTÍP�
RVF�QSPQPSDJPOBTTF�BT�DSJBOÎBT�NPSBEJB�EF�VNB�GPSNB�JNFEJBUB�F�GPSB�EP�DPOUFYUP�EB�QPMÓUJDB�OBDJPOBM
�FTUBSJB�
BVUPNBUJDBNFOUF�BCBSDBOEP�PT�QBJT��0�JNQBDUP�PSÎBNFOUÈSJP
�EFTUB�GPSNB
�TFSJB�JNQFOTÈWFM�F�ESBNÈUJDP�o�UPS�
OBSJB�RVBMRVFS�PVUSB�QPMÓUJDB�QÞCMJDB�JOFYFRàÓWFM�
0�+VMHBNFOUP�OB�$PSUF�EF�"QFMBÎÜFT
0�5SJCVOBM�SFKFJUPV�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�B�SFTQFJUP�EP�BSUJHP���
�J�F�
�BmSNPV�RVF
�FN�WJTUB�EB�FYJTUÐODJB�EF�VNB�
QPMÓUJDB�SBDJPOBM�F�BCSBOHFOUF�EF�NPSBEJB�RVF�FTUBWB�TFOEP�JNQMFNFOUBEB�QFMP�HPWFSOP
�PT�EFTBCSJHBEPT�OÍP�QP�
EFSJBN�FNCBTBS�BT�TVBT�QSFUFOTÜFT�OP�EJSFJUP�Ë�NPSBEJB��$POTJEFSBOEP�TF�RVF�PT�SÏVT�IBWJBN�QSPEV[JEP�FWJEÐO�
DJB�DMBSB�EF�RVF�iVN�QSPHSBNB�SBDJPOBM�EF�NPSBEJB�UJOIB�TJEP�EFTFOIBEP�QBSB�SFTPMWFS�VN�QSPCMFNB�QSFNFOUF�
OP�DPOUFYUP�EF�SFDVSTPT�FTDBTTPTw
�RVBMRVFS�BWBMJBÎÍP�EBT�RVBMJEBEFT�F�EFGFJUPT�EF�UBM�QSPHSBNB�o�JODMVJOEP�BÓ�PT�
FWFOUVBJT�FGFJUPT�TPCSF�PT�����EFTBCSJHBEPT�o�T�QPEFSJB�TFS�GFJUB�OVN�QSB[P�NBJPS
�QPTUP�RVF�iRVBMRVFS�BWBMJB�
ÎÍP�EP�QSPHSBNB�HPWFSOBNFOUBM�EF�NPSBEJB�EFWF�MFWBS�FN�DPOTJEFSBÎÍP�RVF�USÐT�BOPT�TÍP�VN�QFSÓPEP�EF�UFNQP�
FYUSFNBNFOUF�DVSUP�QBSB�SFTPMWFS�B�DSJTF�TVM�BGSJDBOB�EF�NPSBEJBw��
/P�FOUBOUP
�B�JOTUÉODJB�JOGFSJPS�BDBUPV�P�BSHVNFOUP�TPCSF�P�BSUJHP�����&MB�BmSNPV�RVF�P�EFWFS�QSJNÈSJP�EF�
QSPQPSDJPOBS�BCSJHP�ËT�DSJBOÎBT�Ï�EPT�QBJT��.BT
�OB�FWFOUVBMJEBEF�EF�RVF�PT�QBJT�OÍP�QVEFTTFN�PV�OÍP�UJWFTTFN�
DPOEJÎÜFT�EF�GB[Ð�MP
�TFSJB�EFWFS�EF�P�&TUBEP�TVQSJS�UBM�QBQFM��.BJT�EP�RVF�JTTP��P�5SJCVOBM�DFSUJmDPV�RVF�BCSJHP�
TFSJB�NBJT�EP�RVF�BQFOBT�VNB�DBTB��"MÏN�EJTTP
�P�BCSJHP�B�TFS�QSPWJEP�QFMP�&TUBEP�EFWFSJB�TFS�EF�UBM�OBUVSF[B�RVF�
PT�QBJT�EFWFSJBN�QPEFS�OFMF�WJWFS�DPN�TVBT�DSJBOÎBT��*TTP�OÍP�TJHOJmDBSJB�RVF�P�TVKFJUP�BUJWP�EP�EJSFJUP�TFSJBN�PT�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 1919FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
19FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
QBJT�o�BQFOBT
�RVF�VNB�DSJBOÎB�OÍP�QPEF�WJWFS�FN�JTPMBNFOUP�EF�TFVT�QBJT��i0�NFMIPS�JOUF�
SFTTF�EB�DSJBOÎB�Ï�EF�JNQPSUÉODJB�GVOEBNFOUBM�FN�UPEB�F�RVBMRVFS�NBUÏSJB�RVF�B�FOWPMWBw
�
F�GBNÓMJBT�OÍP�EFWFN�TFS�TFQBSBEBT�
1PS�mN
�P�5SJCVOBM�JOGFSJPS�DPOTJEFSPV�BMHVNBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�QPUFODJBJT�EF�TVB�JOUFS�
QSFUBÎÍP�DPOUSPWFSUJEB�EP�BSUJHP����EB�$POTUJUVJÎÍP�4VM�"GSJDBOB��&N�QBSUJDVMBS
�SFGFSJV�TF�
Ë�QPTTÓWFM�FOYVSSBEB�EF�BÎÜFT�EF�PVUSPT�EFTBCSJHBEPT�RVF�UFOUBSJBN�DPOTFHVJS�EP�+VEJDJÈSJP
�
BCSJHP�QBSB�TFVT�mMIPT�F�QBSB�TJ�NFTNPT
�JOEJSFUBNFOUF��5BJT�BÎÜFT�QPEFSJBN�EFTFTUSVUVSBS�
UPEP�P�QSPHSBNB�EF�NPSBEJB
�BMÏN�EF�BDBCBS�DPN�B�SBDJPOBMJEBEF�EB�QPMÓUJDB�QÞCMJDB�EF�
TFOWPMWJEB�QFMBT�EJWFSTBT�FTGFSBT�EF�HPWFSOP
�BJOEB�NBJT�RVBOEP�DPOTJEFSBEPT�PT�FTDBTTPT�SFDVSTPT�mOBODFJSPT��
1BSB�UFOUBS�MJNJUBS�B�BCSBOHÐODJB�EB�EFDJTÍP
�B�$PSUF�GF[�BMHVNBT�SFTTBMWBT��QPTTJCJMJEBEF�
EF�FTUFOEFS�FTTB�EFDJTÍP�B�PVUSPT�DBTPT��&N�QSJNFJSP�MVHBS
�BT�DSJBOÎBT�OP�QØMP�BUJWP�TÍP�
EFTBCSJHBEBT�F�QSFDJTBN�EF�QSPUFÎÍP��&N�TFHVOEP�MVHBS
�PT�QBJT�OÍP�QPEFN�DVNQSJS�TFV�
EFWFS�QSJNÈSJP�F�QSPQPSDJPOBS�BCSJHP�B�TFVT�mMIPT��&N�UFSDFJSP�MVHBS
�BT�DSJBOÎBT�QPEFN�TFS�
BDPNQBOIBEBT�QFMPT�QBJT
�NBT�OÍP
�OFDFTTBSJBNFOUF
�QPS�PVUSPT�NFNCSPT�EB�GBNÓMJB�
"�%FDJTÍP
0�5SJCVOBM�EFDJEJV�RVF�P�ØSHÍP�PV�EFQBSUBNFOUP�EP�&TUBEP�DPNQFUFOUF�FTUÈ�PCSJHBEP�B�
QSPQPSDJPOBS�NPSBEJB�B�UPEPT�PT�BVUPSFT�RVF�GPSFN�QBJT�EF�GBNÓMJB�F�ËT�SFTQFDUJWBT�DSJBOÎBT��
"�EFDJTÍP�OÍP�FOUSB�FN�EFUBMIFT�TPCSF�P�RVÐ�TFSJB�VNB�NPSBEJB�JEFBM��/P�FOUBOUP
�P�+VEJDJ�
ÈSJP�EFJYPV�SFHJTUSBEP�RVF
�QSPWJTPSJBNFOUF
�CBSSBDBT
�MBUSJOBT�QPSUÈWFJT�F�VNB�GPOUF�SFHVMBS�
EF�ÈHVB�EFWFSJBN�DPOTUJUVJS�P�NÓOJNP�EFTFKÈWFM��'PJ�DPOTJHOBEP�UBNCÏN�P�EFTFKP�EF�RVF�P�
MPDBM�EB�NPSBEJB�QSPWJTØSJB�GPTTF�EFOUSP�EB�NVOJDJQBMJEBEF�EF�0PTUFOCFSH�
'B[�QBSUF
�QPSUBOUP
�EB�EFDJTÍP�P�SFDPOIFDJNFOUP�EF�RVF�P�&TUBEP�UFN�P�EFWFS�QPTJUJWP�
EF�QSPQPSDJPOBS�BCSJHP�ËT�DSJBOÎBT�DVKPT�QBJT�GPSFN�JODBQB[FT�EF�GB[Ð�MP��%P�NFTNP�NPEP
�
SFDPOIFDF�TF�RVF�Ï�EP�NFMIPS�JOUFSFTTF�RVF�BT�DSJBOÎBT�TFKBN�BDPNPEBEBT�KVOUBNFOUF�DPN�
TFVT�QBJT�
0T�SÏVT�EFDJEJSBN�BQFMBS�Ë�$PSUF�$POTUJUVDJPOBM�QBSB�GB[FS�SFWFSUFS�UBM�EFDJTÍP��0�RVF�
WPD�BDIB�RVF�B�$PSUF�$POTUJUVDJPOBM�EFWFSJB�EFDJEJS 
#JCMJPHSBmB�DPNQMFNFOUBS��W��UFYUP�BOFYP�EF�$BTT�4VOTUFJO
-FJUVSB�TVHFSJEB��W��UFYUP�BCBJYP�EF�%JFHP�8FSOFDL��
"SHVNFOUPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�F�&TUBEP�EF�%JSUFJUP��TVCTÓEJPT�QBSB�VNB�
DPNQBUJCJMJ[BÎÍP�
%JFHP�8FSOFDL�"SHVFMIFT��
3FTVNP�
0T�BSHVNFOUPT�GVOEBEPT�OBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�VN�EFUFSNJOBEP�DVSTP�EF�BÎÍP�UÐN�TJEP�PCKFUP�
EF�JOUFOTBT�EJTDVTTÜFT�OB�FDPOPNJB
�OB�ÏUJDB�F�OP�ÉNCJUP�EB�SBDJPOBMJEBEF�QSÈUJDB�FN�HFSBM��$POUV�
EP
�TØ�SFDFOUFNFOUF�B�UFPSJB�EB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�KVSÓEJDB�QBTTPV�B�TF�EFEJDBS�EF�GPSNB�NBJT�TJTUFNÈUJDB�
Ë�BOÈMJTF�EBT�DPOEJÎÜFT�EF�QSFWBMÐODJB�EFTTF�UJQP�EF�BSHVNFOUP��/FTTF�QPOUP
�P�DPOTFOTP�BUVBM�FOUSF�
�4RABALHO�APRESEN
TADO�NO�8)6�#ONGRESSO�
.ACIONAL�DO�#/.0%$)�
n�#ONSELHO�.ACIONAL�
DE�0ESQUISA�E�0ØS
'RADUA¥ÎO�EM�$IREITO��
REALIZADO�ENTRE���E���DE�
NOVEMBRO�DE������EM�
&ORTALEZA��#%	��%NVIADO�
PARA�PUBLICA¥ÎO�NA�
2EVISTA�6IRTUAL�DO�#/.
0%$)��NO�PRELO	��FAVOR�
NÎO�DIVULGAR��CIRCULAR�OU�
CITAR�SEM�AUTORIZA¥ÎO��
'OSTARIA�DE�AGRADECER�
A�.OEL�3TRUCHINER��&ERN
ANDO�,EAL�E�(UMBERTO�
"��£VILA�PELA�LEITURA�E�
COMENTÉRIOS�A�UMA�
VERSÎO�PRELIMINAR�DESTE�
PAPER�
�0ESQUISADOR�DA�
%SCOLA�DE�$IREITO�DO�2IO�
DE�*ANEIRO�DA�&UNDA¥ÎO�
'ETULIO�6ARGAS��
-ESTRANDO�EM�$IREITO�
0ÞBLICO�PELA�5NIVERSI
DADE�DO�%STADO�DO�2IO�
DE�*ANEIRO��5%2*	�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 2020FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
20FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
PT�KVSJTUBT�QBSFDF�TFS�P�EF�RVF�BSHVNFOUPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�TÍP�iNFSBNFOUF�QSÈUJDPTw
�JTUP�Ï
�FYUFS�
OPT�ËT�JOTUJUVJÎÜFT�KVSÓEJDBT�F�BP�DPOKVOUP�EF�EFDJTÜFT�RVF�DPNQÜFN�P�EJSFJUP�WÈMJEP��BTTJN
�QPS�GPSÎB�
EB�JEÏJB�EF�&TUBEP�EF�%JSFJUP�F�EF�WJODVMBÎÍP�EP�KVJ[�Ë�MFJ
�B�KVTUJmDBÎÍP�EF�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT�DPN�
CBTF�OBT�TVBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�TØ�QPEF�UFS�VN�QFTP�TVCTJEJÈSJP��/P�#SBTJM
�FTTB�QPTJÎÍP�GPJ�BSUJDVMBEB�F�
TJTUFNBUJ[BEB�QFMP�QJPOFJSP�BSUJHP�EF�)VNCFSUP�#��«WJMB
�i"SHVNFOUBÎÍP�+VSÓEJDB�F�B�*NVOJEBEF�EP�
-JWSP�&MFUSÙOJDPw�	�����
��&TTB�DPODFQÎÍP�OÍP�EÈ�DPOUB�EB�NBOFJSB�QFMB�RVBM�PT�USJCVOBJT�TVQFSJPSFT�
OBDJPOBJT�FNQSFHBN�SBDJPDÓOJPT�EP�HÐOFSP��0�PCKFUJWP�EFTUF�USBCBMIP�Ï�NPTUSBS�RVF�VN�BSHVNFOUP�
DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUB�QPEF�TFS�FOUFOEJEP�DPNP�VNB�GPSNB�EF�PCFEJÐODJB�BP�EJSFJUP�WJHFOUF
�OB�NFEJEB�
FN�RVF�P� KVJ[� UFN�B�PCSJHBÎÍP�EF� UPNBS�B�EFDJTÍP�RVF�NBJT�QSPNPWB�B�mOBMJEBEF� TVCKBDFOUF�EB�
OPSNB�BQMJDÈWFM
�PV�RVF�NBJT�QSPNPWB�P�FTUBEP�EF�DPJTBT�FTUBCFMFDJEP�DPNP�PCSJHBUØSJP��&N�BNCPT�
PT�DBTPT
�Ï�JOFWJUÈWFM�SFDPSSFS�B�SBDJPDÓOJPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�QBSB�TF�DPNQBSBS�P�HSBV�EF�QSPNPÎÍP�
EFTUF�PV�EBRVFMF�DVSTP�EF�EFDJTÍP�
���*OUSPEVÎÍP��"�IJFSBSRVJ[BÎÍP�EF�BSHVNFOUPT�KVSÓEJDPT�QSPQPTUB�QPS�)VNCFSUP�«WJ�
MB�
/PT�ÞMUJNPT�BOPT
�B�DPNVOJEBEF�KVSÓEJDB�CSBTJMFJSB�UFN�TF�WJTUP�EJBOUF�EF�VN�TJHOJmDB�
UJWP�DSFTDJNFOUP�EP�QFTP�EB�DPOTJEFSBÎÍP�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EB�EFDJTÍP�OB�GVOEBNFOUBÎÍP�EPT�
BDØSEÍPT�EF�USJCVOBJT�TVQFSJPSFT�o�FN�FTQFDJBM�EP�4VQSFNP�5SJCVOBM�'FEFSBM��"�QSFTFOÎB�EF�
BSHVNFOUPT�EFTTB�OBUVSF[B�OP�FYFSDÓDJP�EB�GVOÎÍP�KVSJTEJDJPOBM�DPMPDB�VNB�TÏSJF�EF�EJmDVM�
EBEFT�DPODFJUVBJT�F�QSÈUJDBT�QBSB�B�UFPSJB�EP�%JSFJUP
�FN�FTQFDJBM�RVBOUP��TVB�DPNQBUJCJ�
MJEBEF�DPN�B�JEÏJB�EF�&TUBEP�EF�%JSFJUP
�Ë�EFmOJÎÍP�EBT�TVBT�DPOEJÎÜFT�EF�SBDJPOBMJEBEF�F�
Ë�MFHJUJNJEBEF�EPT�NBHJTUSBEPT�CSBTJMFJSPT�QBSB�VUJMJ[BS�B�QSFWJTÍP�EF�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�DPNP�
FMFNFOUP�EFDJTJWP�OB�TPMVÎÍP�EF�DBTPT��/FTUF�USBCBMIP
�TFS�FOGSFOUBEP�BQFOBT�VN�EFTTFT�
QSPCMFNBT��DPNP�VN�BSHVNFOUP�RVF�SFUJSB�TVB�GPSÎB�EF�VNB�BWBMJBÎÍP�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EF�
VNB�EFDJTÍP�FTQFDÓmDB�QPEF�TFS�DPNQBUJCJMJ[BEP�DPN�B�JEÏJB�EF�&TUBEP�EF�%JSFJUP �"�DPOT�
USVÎÍP�EF�BSHVNFOUPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�QPEF�TFS�FOUFOEJEB�DPNP�VNB�GPSNB�WÈMJEB�EF�
PCFEJÐODJB�ËT�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT �
/P�QMBOP�KVSÓEJDP
�B�BOÈMJTF�EFTUF�UJQP�EF�BSHVNFOUP�UFN�TJEP�QSBUJDBNFOUF�EFJYBEB�EF�
MBEP����/P�#SBTJM
�B�DPODFQÎÍP�USBEJDJPOBM�UFN�TJEP�B�EF�RVF�B�BUJWJEBEF�EPT�KVÓ[FT�o�TFKB�FMB�
FODBSBEB�DPNP�iDSJBUJWBw�PV�DPNP�iNFDÉOJDBw�o�FOWPMWF�B�BQMJDBÎÍP�EF�OPSNBT�HFSBJT�EF�
GPSNB�SFMBUJWBNFOUF�JOEFQFOEFOUF�EF�TVBT�QPTTÓWFJT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT
�DPN�FYDFÎÍP�UBMWF[�EF�
DBTPT�FYUSFNPT��6N�EPT�QSJNFJSPT�USBUBNFOUPT�TJTUFNÈUJDPT�TPCSF�P�QFTP�EPT�BSHVNFOUPT�
DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�OP�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�CSBTJMFJSP�Ï�P�EF�)VNCFSUP�«WJMB
�RVF
�FN�TFV�
BSUJHP�i"SHVNFOUBÎÍP�+VSÓEJDB�F�B�*NVOJEBEF�EP�-JWSP�&MFUSÙOJDPw
�QSPDVSB�DPOTUSVJS�VN�
DPOKVOUP�EF�SFHSBT�QSJNB�GBDJF�EF�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP��1BSB�UBOUP
�SFBMJ[B�EPJT�NPWJNFOUPT�BOBMÓUJ�
DPT�EJTUJOUPT��1SJNFJSP
�QBSUJOEP�TF�EF�VN�DPODFJUP�EF�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�KVSÓEJDB�JEFOUJmDBEP�
DPN� B� UBSFGB� EF� GVOEBNFOUBS� B� FTDPMIB� EBT� QSFNJTTBT� 	KVTUJmDBÎÍP� FYUFSOB
� VUJMJ[BEBT� OB�
EFDJTÍP
�Ï�GFJUB�VNB�EJTUJOÎÍP�FOUSF�EJGFSFOUFT�UJQPT�EF�BSHVNFOUPT�KVSÓEJDPT
�EF�BDPSEP�DPN�
P�TFV�GVOEBNFOUP�o�MJOHàÓTUJDPT
�TJTUFNÈUJDPT
�IJTUØSJDPT�F�QSÈUJDPT���
4FHVOEP�«WJMB
�FNCPSB�BSHVNFOUPT�EF�EJWFSTPT�UJQPT�QPTTBN�TFS�VTBEPT�OB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�
KVSÓEJDB
�OÍP�TF�QPEF�EJ[FS�RVF�UPEPT�UFOIBN�P�NFTNP�QFTP��/FTTF�TFOUJEP
�P�TFHVOEP�NP�
WJNFOUP�BOBMÓUJDP�Ï�WBMPSBS�FTUF�BSHVNFOUPT�EF�BDPSEP�DPN�P�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�CSBTJMFJSP��
0�PCKFUJWP�EB�EJTUJOÎÍP�FOUSF�EJGFSFOUFT�FTQÏDJFT�EF�BSHVNFOUPT�Ï
�FN�ÞMUJNB�JOTUÉODJB
�B�
DPOTUSVÎÍP�EF�QBSÉNFUSPT�QBSB�BWBMJBS�EP�QFTP�EPT�BSHVNFOUPT�MFWBOUBEPT�FN�GBWPS�EF�VNB�
EFUFSNJOBEB�UFTF��«WJMB�UFODJPOB�FYQMJDBS�DPNP�iPT�BSHVNFOUPT�QPEFN�F�EFWFN�TFS�VUJMJ[BEPT�
OB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�KVSÓEJDBw�F
�OFTTF�TFOUJEP
�P�DSJUÏSJP�QBSB�TF�BGFSJS�B�GPSÎB�EF�VN�BSHVNFOUP�
OB�EFDJTÍP�KVEJDJBM�Ï
�DPNP�WFSFNPT�B�TFHVJS
�B�TVB�SFDPOEVÎÍP�PV�OÍP�BP�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓ�
EJDP���
4F�FTUB�MJHBÎÍP�FOUSF�BSHVNFOUP�F�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT�WJHFOUFT�	JTUP�Ï
�TF�FTUBT�GVOEBNFO�
��3/,%2��2�#���6%.)%2��
#��h2ACIONALIDAD�DE�
LAS�JUSTIlCACIONES�
CONSECUENCIALISTAS�EN�
LAS�DECISIONES�JUDICIALESv�
�����	��P�������%STA�
OBSERVA¥ÎO�SE�REFERE�AO�
ÊMBITO�JUDICIAL��JÉ�QUE��
NO�PLANO�LEGISLATIVO���AS�
CONSIDERA¥ÜES�SOBRE�
O�RESULTADO�DA�PROM
ULGA¥ÎO�DE�DETERMI
NADA�LEI�SÎO�OBVIAMENTE�
DECISIVAS�
��£6),!��(��h!RGUMEN
TA¥ÎO�*URÓDICA�E�A�
)MUNIDADE�DO�,IVRO�
%LETRÙNICOv��������P����
��)DEM��IBIDEM�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 2121FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
21FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
UBN�BRVFMF
� JEFOUJmDÈWFJT� TFHVOEP�VN�DSJUÏSJP� GPSNBM�F�PCKFUJWP
�QPEF�TFS�WFSJmDBEB�OB�
QSÈUJDB
�FOUÍP�P�BSHVNFOUP�TFSÈ�JOTUJUVDJPOBM��"�QBSUJS�EFTUF�DSJUÏSJP�Ï�QSPQPTUB�VNB�IJFSBS�
RVJ[BÎÍP�EPT�EJGFSFOUFT�BSHVNFOUPT�EF�BDPSEP�DPN�P�TFV�QFTP
�TFOEP�FTUF�BGFSJEP�B�QBSUJS�
EB�SFDPOEVUJCJMJEBEF�EP�BSHVNFOUP�BP�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�CSBTJMFJSP��&TUB�IJFSBSRVJ[BÎÍP�
�KVTUJmDBEB�EB�TFHVJOUF�GPSNB�
i0T�BSHVNFOUPT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�TÍP�BRVFMFT�RVF
�QPS�TFSFN�EFUFSNJOBEPT�QPS�BUPT�JOT�
UJUVDJPOBJT� ��QBSMBNFOUBSFT
�BENJOJTUSBUJWPT
� KVEJDJBJT� �
� UÐN�DPNP�QPOUP�EF�SFGFSÐODJB�
P� PSEFOBNFOUP� KVSÓEJDP�� 1PTTVFN
� OFTTF� TFOUJEP
�NBJPS� DBQBDJEBEF� EF� PCKFUJWBÎÍP��0T�
BSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�TÍP�EFDPSSFOUFT�BQFOBT�EP�BQFMP�BP�TFOUJNFOUP�EF�KVTUJÎB�
RVF�B�QSØQSJB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�FWFOUVBMNFOUF�FWPDB��1PTTVFN
�QPS�JTTP
�NFOPS�DBQBDJEBEF�
EF�PCKFUJWBÎÍP�w��
4FS� JOTUJUVDJPOBM
� QPSUBOUP
� Ï� QPTTVJS� OP� PSEFOBNFOUP� KVSÓEJDP� WJHFOUF� VN�QPOUP� EF�
SFGFSÐODJB�PCKFUJWP
� JTUP� Ï
�VN� GVOEBNFOUP�OPSNBUJWP�QBTTÓWFM�EF� WFSJmDBÎÍP�QPS�PVUSPT�
QBSUJDJQBOUFT�EP�EJTDVSTP��.BT�RVBJT�BSHVNFOUPT�TFSJBN�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT �4FHVOEP�«WJMB
�
PT�BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJDPT�TÍP�PT�ÞOJDPT�JOUFHSBOUFT�EP�DPOKVOUP�EPT�BSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�JOTUJUV�
DJPOBJT��$PNP�OÍP�Ï�TVHFSJEB�B�FYJTUÐODJB�EF�PVUSPT�BSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT
�BDSFEJUP�
TFS�DPSSFUP�QSFTTVQPS�RVF
�OB�DPODFQÎÍP�EP�BVUPS
�UPEP�BSHVNFOUP�QSÈUJDP�Ï�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBM�
F�UPEP�BSHVNFOUP�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBM�Ï�OFDFTTBSJBNFOUF�VN�BSHVNFOUP�QSÈUJDP��"�QBSUJS�EBÓ
�QP�
EFNPT�JOGFSJS�RVF�OÍP�IÈ�FSSP�FN�TF�GBMBS�JOEJTDSJNJOBEBNFOUF�FN�BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJDPT�PV�
FN�BSHVNFOUPT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT��"�ÞOJDB�EJGFSFOÎB�FOUSF�P�DPOKVOUP�EPT�BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJDPT�
F�P�EPT�iBSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�QSÈUJDPTw�QBSFDF�SFTJEJS�OB�QSFTFOÎB�EF�VNB�ÞOJDB�QSPQSJFEBEF��TFS�
PV�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBM�
"�DPMPDBÎÍP�EPT�BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJDPT�OP�EFHSBV�NBJT�CBJYP�EB�IJFSBSRVJB�QSPQPTUB�Ï�
KVTUJmDBEB�QPS�«WJMB�EB�TFHVJOUF�GPSNB�
i0T�BSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�OÍP�GB[FN�SFGFSÐODJB�BPT�NPEPT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�EF�
FYJTUÐODJB� EP�%JSFJUP��&MFT� GB[FN�BQFMP� B� RVBMRVFS� PVUSP� FMFNFOUP� RVF�OÍP� P� QSØQSJP�
PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP��4ÍP�BSHVNFOUPT�NFSBNFOUF�QSÈUJDPT�RVF�EFQFOEFN�EF�VN�KVMHB�
NFOUP
�GFJUP�QFMP�QSØQSJP�JOUÏSQSFUF
�TPC�QPOUPT�EF�WJTUBT�FDPOÙNJDPT
�QPMÓUJDPT�F�PV�ÏUJDPT��
"T�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EBOPTBT�EF�EFUFSNJOBEB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�F�B�OFDFTTJEBEF�EF�BUFOUBS�QBSB�PT�
QMBOPT�EF�HPWFSOP�FORVBESBN�TF�BRVJ�w��
� /P�DBTP�FTQFDÓmDP�EP�MJWSP�FMFUSÙOJDP
�P�BSHVNFOUP�QSÈUJDP�DJUBEP�QPS�«WJMB�TFSJB�
P�EF�RVF�DPOTJEFSÈ�MP�DPNP�iMJWSPw�QBSB�mOT�EF� JODJEÐODJB�EB� JNVOJEBEF�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM�
QSFWJTUB�OP�BSU�����
�*7
�C�JNQMJDBSJB�VNB�SFEVÎÍP�TJHOJmDBUJWB�OB�SFDFJUB�FTUBUBM
�UFOEP�FN�
WJTUB�RVF�PT�MJWSPT�FMFUSÙOJDPT�EFWFN�TF�QSPMJGFSBS�DPN�P�BWBOÎP�UFDOPMØHJDP�F�B�DPOTFRàFOUF�
EJNJOVJÎÍP�EPT�TFVT�DVTUPT�EF�BRVJTJÎÍP�F�QSPEVÎÍP��"TTJN�o�DPOUJOVBSJB�P�BSHVNFOUP�o
�
JOUFSQSFUBS�B�JNVOJEBEF�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM�DPNP�OÍP�TFOEP�BQMJDÈWFM�BPT�MJWSPT�FMFUSÙOJDPT�USB�
SJB�VNB�HSBWF�DPOTFRàÐODJB
�RVBM�TFKB
�B�JNQPTTJCJMJEBEF�EF�P�&TUBEP�JODSFNFOUBS�TVB�SFDFJUB�
DPN�B�USJCVUBÎÍP�EFTUF�QSPEVUP�
&NCPSB�OÍP�OFHVF�IBWFS�FTQBÎP�QBSB�FTUF�UJQP�EF�BSHVNFOUP�OB�KVTUJmDBÎÍP�EF�EFDJTÜFT�
KVEJDJBJT
�«WJMB�MIF�BUSJCVJ�QFTP�TVCTJEJÈSJP�QPS�TFS�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBM��"�BOÈMJTF�EBT�DPOTFRà�
ÐODJBT�FDPOÙNJDBT�PV�TPDJBJT�EF�VNB�EBEB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�OÍP�QPEF�TFS�SFDPOEV[JEB�BP�PSEF�
OBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP
�BP�DPOUSÈSJP�EBT�DPOTJEFSBÎÜFT�MJOHàÓTUJDBT
�TJTUFNÈUJDBT�F�IJTUØSJDBT��0�
BSHVNFOUP�OÍP�UFN�QPS�CBTF�JNFEJBUB�GVOEBNFOUPT�KVSÓEJDPT
�NBT�TJN�FDPOÙNJDPT��"TTJN
�
QPS�GPSÎB�EBT�FYJHÐODJBT�EB�TFQBSBÎÍP�EF�QPEFSFT�F�EP�QSJODÓQJP�EFNPDSÈUJDP
�FTUF�F�PVUSPT�
BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJDPT�OÍP�QPEFSJBN�PCSJHBS�B�EFDJTÍP�EB�NFTNB�GPSNB�RVF�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�
CBTFBEPT�OP�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�PCSJHBSJBN�o�QPJT�B�WJODVMBÎÍP�CÈTJDB�EP�KVJ[�Ï�DPN�P�
��£6),!��(���OP��CIT��P�����
��£6),!��(���OP��CIT��P����
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 2222FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
22FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
EJSFJUP
�F�OÍP�DPN�B�FmDJÐODJB�FDPOÙNJDB
�DPN�B�FTUBCJMJEBEF�QPMÓUJDB�PV�RVBMRVFS�PVUSP�
FTUBEP�EF�DPJTBT�EFTFKÈWFM�TFHVOEP�VN�DSJUÏSJP�EF�EFWFS�TFS���
«WJMB�BQSFTFOUB�BJOEB�VNB�PVUSB�SB[ÍP�QBSB�DPOGFSJS�NFOPS�QFTP�BPT�BSHVNFOUPT�QSÈUJ�
DPT��0�GBUP�EF�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�QPTTVÓSFN�DPNP�QPOUP�EF�SFGFSÐODJB�P�QSØQSJP�
PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�OÍP�Ï�EFDJTJWP�BQFOBT�QPS�GPSÎB�EP�QBQFM�FTQFDÓmDP�EP�KVJ[�FN�VN�
&TUBEP�%FNPDSÈUJDP�EF�%JSFJUP
�NBT�UBNCÏN�QPS�QPTTJCJMJUBS�P�DPOUSPMF�JOUFSTVCKFUJWP�EB�
BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�RVF�TF�EFTFOWPMWF�B�QBSUJS�EFTUFT�BSHVNFOUPT��2VBOEP�JOEJDP�DPNP�CBTF�QBSB�
NJOIB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�VNB�PV�NBJT�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT
�PGFSFÎP�BP�BVEJUØSJP�VN�GVOEBNFOUP�
RVF�QPEF�TFS�PCKFUJWBNFOUF�SFDPOIFDJEP��"�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�RVF�GB[FN�EB�OPSNB�FN�RVFTUÍP�
QPEF�TFS�EJGFSFOUF�EB�NJOIB
�NBT
�BJOEB�BTTJN
�K�I�VN�BDPSEP�RVBOUP�BP�GVOEBNFOUP�B�TFS�
VUJMJ[BEP��FV�F�NFV�BVEJUØSJP�UFNPT�VN�QPOUP�EF�SFGFSÐODJB�DPNVN
�EF�WBMJEBEF�F�PCSJHB�
UPSJFEBEF�QSJNB�GBDJF�JOEJTDVUÓWFJT
�B�QBSUJS�EP�RVBM�B�DPOTJTUÐODJB�EB�NJOIB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�
QPEF� TFS� BWBMJBEB� F� QFTBEB�� 4FHVOEP�«WJMB
� P�NFTNP�OÍP� PDPSSFSJB� DPN�PT� BSHVNFOUPT�
QSÈUJDPT�� QPS� OÍP� BQSFTFOUBSFN� VN� GVOEBNFOUP� PCKFUJWBNFOUF� JEFOUJmDÈWFM
� iBQØJBN�TF�
FYDMVTJWBNFOUF�FN�PQJOJÜFT�TVCKFUJWBT�F�JOEJWJEVBJT
�DPOUSBQPOEP�TF�QPSUBOUP�ËT�FYJHÐODJBT�EF�SB�
DJPOBMJEBEF�F�EF�EFUFSNJOBCJMJEBEF�EB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP
�ÓOTJUBT�BP�QSJODÓQJP�EP�&TUBEP�%FNPDSÈUJ�
DP�EF�%JSFJUPw����1PS�QSPNPWFSFN�FN�NFOPS�NFEJEB�P�JEFBM�EF�SBDJPOBMJEBEF�OB�KVTUJmDBÎÍP�
EBT�EFDJTÜFT�KVEJDJBJT
�EFWFN�QPTTVJS�NFOPS�QFTP�OB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP�KVSÓEJDB�
"�QBSUJS�EB�QJPOFJSB� TJTUFNBUJ[BÎÍP�EF�)VNCFSUP�«WJMB
�QSFUFOEP�NPTUSBS�RVF�PT� BS�
HVNFOUPT�iQSÈUJDPTw�PV�iDPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBTw�QPEFN�FN�NVJUPT�DBTPT�TFS�SFDPOEV[JEPT�BP�
PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�WJHFOUF�	JTUP�Ï
�OÍP�TÍP�OFDFTTBSJBNFOUF�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT
�F
�DPOTF�
RàFOUFNFOUF
�TFV�QFTP�RVF�OÍP�EFWF�TFS�B�QSJPSJ�EFmOJEP�DPNP�TVCTJEJÈSJP
�K�RVF�QPEFN�
TFS�EFDJTJWPT�NFTNP�FN�DBTPT�OPT�RVBJT�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�EF�GVOEP�MJOHàÓTUJDP
�TJTUFNÈUJDP�F�
IJTUØSJDP�BQPOUBN�QBSB�P�NFTNP�SFTVMUBEP�OB�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�EF�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT��
���"�QPTTJCJMJEBEF�EF�	SF
DPOTUSVÎÍP�EF�BSHVNFOUPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT
1BSB�EFTFOWPMWFS�BT�RVFTUÜFT�QSPQPTUBT
�HPTUBSJB�QSPQPS�B�TFHVJOUF�EFmOJÎÍP�HFSBM�EP�RVF�
TFKB�VN�BSHVNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUB����1PEFNPT�EFmOJ�MP�DPNP�TFOEP�BRVFMF�UJQP�
EF�BSHVNFOUP�RVF�GPSOFDF�SB[ÜFT�QBSB�B�UPNBEB�EF�VNB�EFDJTÍP�FTQFDÓmDB�B�QBSUJS�EF�VNB�BWB�
MJBÎÍP�EPT�QPTTÓWFJT�FGFJUPT�EFTUB�EFDJTÍP��"TTJN
�QPEF�TF�FNQSFHÈ�MP�QBSB�KVTUJmDBS�VNB�EFDJTÍP�
DPN�CBTF�UBOUP�OBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�JOEFTFKÈWFJT�PV�EFTFKÈWFJT�RVF�B�TVB�iOÍP�SFBMJ[BÎÍPw�UFSJB�
PV�QPEFSJB�UFS
�RVBOUP�OBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�JOEFTFKÈWFJT�PV�EFTFKÈWFJT�RVF�B�TVB�FGFUJWBÎÍP�UF�
SJB�PV�QPEFSJB�UFS����1BSUJOEP�EFTUB�EFmOJÎÍP
�B�RVFTUÍP�RVF�TF�DPMPDB�Ï�EFUFSNJOBS�TF
�DPNP�
BmSNB�«WJMB
�BSHVNFOUPT�EP�HÐOFSP�iOÍP�GB[FN�SFGFSÐODJB�BPT�NPEPT�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�EF�FYJTUÐO�
DJB�EP�%JSFJUPw
�PV�TF
�BP�DPOUSÈSJP
�QPEFN�TFS�SFDPOTUSVÓEPT�EF�NPEP�B�TF�GVOEBNFOUBSFN�
FN�QPOUPT�EP�PSEFOBNFOUP�KVSÓEJDP�PCKFUJWBNFOUF�JEFOUJmDÈWFJT�
"�PCKFÎÍP�EF�RVF�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�OÍP�JOTUJUVDJPOBJT�	NPSBJT
�QPMÓUJDPT
�mMPTØmDPT�F�FDP�
OÙNJDPT
�TFHVOEP�«WJMB
�TÍP�OFDFTTBSJBNFOUF�JSSBDJPOBJT�Ï�FOHBOPTB��"�DIBWF�EF�TFV�BSHV�
NFOUP�OÍP�QPEF�SFTJEJS�OB�BmSNBÎÍP�EF�VNB�JSSBDJPOBMJEBEF�JOUSÓOTFDB�EFTUFT�BSHVNFOUPT�
o�P�RVF
�BMJÈT
�TFSJB�EJGÓDJM�EF�TFS�TVTUFOUBEP�o
�NBT�TJN�OB�JEÏJB�EF�RVF�FMFT�OÍP�GPSOFDFN�
CBTF�QBSB� KVTUJmDBUJWBT�BEFRVBEBT�BP� UJQP�EF� SBDJPOBMJEBEF�RVF�� SFMFWBOUF�QBSB�P�EJSFJUP����
0�SFQÞEJP�EF�«WJMB�BPT�BSHVNFOUPT�iQSÈUJDPTw�OÍP�TF�EFWF�B�VNB�TVQPTUB�JSSBDJPOBMJEBEF�
JOFSFOUF�B�UPEP�F�RVBMRVFS�VTP�RVF�TF�GBÎB�EFMFT��/B�WFSEBEF
�TÍP�DPOTJEFSBEPT�JSSBDJPOBJT�
QPSRVF�OÍP�TF�DPOTUJUVFN�FN�QPOUPT�EF�BQPJP�PCKFUJWÈWFJT
�DVKB�WBMJEBEF�EFWB�TFS�SFDPOIF�
DJEB�QFMPT�QBSUJDJQBOUFT�EB�BSHVNFOUBÎÍP��"TTJN
�QPS�OÍP�TF�DPNQBUJCJMJ[BSFN�DPN�P�UJQP�
EF�KVTUJmDBÎÍP�NBJT�BEFRVBEB�Ë�GVOÎÍP�KVSJTEJDJPOBM
�UBJT�BSHVNFOUPT�TÍP�TVCTJEJÈSJPT��&TUB�DPODFQÎÍP�FTUÈ�JOUJNBNFOUF�MJHBEB�Ë�JEÏJB�EF�RVF�PT�BSHVNFOUPT�iQSÈUJDPTw�UÐN�GVOEBNFO�
UPT�OFDFTTBSJBNFOUF�FYUSBKVSÓEJDPT�o�P�RVF�Ï�SFDPOIFDJEP�JODMVTJWF�QPS�NVJUPT�EPT�QSJODJQBJT�
EFGFOTPSFT�EB�DPOTJEFSBÎÍP�EF�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�OB�EFDJTÍP�
��6ALE�NOTAR�QUE��COMO�
J�DEMONSTROU�(ERBERT�
(ART��OS�CRITÏRIOS�DE�
DEVER�SER�PELOS�QUAIS�
AVALIAMOS�O�$IREITO�
EXISTENTE�NÎO�SÎO�NEC
ESSARIAMENTE�MORAIS�
�#F��h0OSITIVISM�AND�THE�
3EPARATION�OF�,AW�AND�
-ORALSv������	��/�EXEM
PLO�DO�LIVRO�ELETRÙNICO�IL
USTRA�COM�PRECISÎO�ESTE�
PONTO��POIS�O�QUE�EST�
EM�JOGO�NO�ARGUMENTO�
PRÉTICO�MENCIONADO�
POR�£VILA�Ï�UM�CRITÏRIO�
ESSENCIALMENTE�
ECONÙMICO��O�$IREITO�
DEVERIA�SER�INTERPRETADO�
DE�MODO�A�INCREMENTAR�
A�RECEITA�ESTATAL�
��£6),!��(���OP��CIT���P����
��0RElRO�O�TERMO�
hCONSEQUENCIALISTAv�AOS�
TERMOS�hPRÉTICOv�E�hPRAG
MÉTICOv�n�UTILIZADOS�POR�
EXEMPLO�POR�#HAÕM�
0ERELMAN��CF��h/�ARGU
MENTO�PRAGMÉTICOv��RE
PRODUZIDO�NA�COLETÊNEA�
2ETØRICAS������		��/�
ADJETIVO�hPRÉTICOv�PODE�
GERAR�CONFUSÜES��POIS�
Ï�POSSÓVEL�FORNECER�
ARGUMENTOS�PRÉTICOS�
NÎO
CONSEQàENCIALISTAS��
0ENSE
SE��POR�EXEMPLO��
NA�DISCUSSÎO�EM�TORNO�
DA�CONSTITUCIONALIDADE�
DO�VALOR�DO�SALÉRIO�
MÓNIMO��ENFRENTADA�
PELO�3UPREMO�4RIBUNAL�
&EDERAL�NA�!$)N������
-#���$&��0OR�UM�LADO��
Ï�POSSÓVEL�FORMULAR�
O�ARGUMENTO�PRÉTICO�
SEGUNDO�O�QUAL�SERIA�
IMPOSSÓVEL��DADAS�AS�
CONDI¥ÜES�ECONÙMICAS�
DO�PAÓS��ESTABELECER�UM�
SALÉRIO�MÓNIMO�CAPAZ�
DE�ATENDER�A�TODAS�
AS�EXIGÐNCIAS�DO�!RT��
�O��)6��POR�OUTRO���SERIA�
IGUALMENTE�POSSÓVEL�
FORNECER�UM�ARGUMENTO�
DIFERENTE��SEGUNDO�O�
QUAL�A�lXA¥ÎO�DO�SALÉRIO�
MÓNIMO�EM�UM�VALOR�
APTO�A�ATENDER�ÌS�EX
IGÐNCIAS�DO�!RT���O�TERIA�
COMO�CONSEQàÐNCIA�A�
QUEBRA��3E�ACEITARMOS�
COMO�CORRETOS�ESSES�
USOS�DAS�PALAVRAS�EM�
JOGO��PODE
SE�DIZER�QUE�
O�CONJUNTO�DOS�ARGU
MENTOS�hPRÉTICOSv�OU�
hPRAGMÉTICOSv�CONTÏM�
O�DOS�ARGUMENTOS�
hCONSEQUENCIALISTASv��
MAS�QUE�NÎO�SE�TRATAM�
DE�CONJUNTOS�IDÐNTICOS��
!LÏM�DISSO��O�TERMO�
hARGUMENTO�PRÉTICOv�
TEM�UM�SIGNIlCADO�
INTRODUÇÃO AO PENSAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO
TEORiA DA DECiSãO
FGV DiREiTO RiO 2323FGV DIREITO RIO
InTRODuçãO à TEORIa Da DEcIsãO
23FGV DIREITO RIO
INTRODUÇÃO À TEORIA DA DECISÃO
'(7�%*3&*50�3*0 ��
0�KVSJTUB�OPSUF�BNFSJDBOP�$BTT�4VOTUFJO
�QPS�FYFNQMP
�FN�BOÈMJTF�TPCSF�PT�QSPDFTTPT�
EFDJTØSJPT�EB�4VQSFNB�$PSUF�EF�TFV�QBÓT
�PCTFSWB�RVF
�NVJUBT�WF[FT
�PT�+VTUJDFT�DPOTJEFSBN�
GVOEBNFOUBM�BOUFDJQBS�PT�FGFJUPT�EF�TVBT�EFDJTÜFT�BUÏ�NFTNP�QBSB�EFDJEJS�TF�WÍP�EFDJEJS�����
"UVBMNFOUF
�BT�DPNQFUÐODJBT�SFDVSTBJT�PCSJHBUØSJBT�EB�4VQSFNB�$PSUF�TÍP�FYUSFNBNFOUF�
SFEV[JEBT
�EF�NPEP�RVF
�OB�QSÈUJDB
�P�DPOKVOUP�EPT�+VTUJDFT�UFN�BVUPOPNJB�RVBTF�UPUBM�QBSB�
EFUFSNJOBS�RVBJT�QSPDFTTPT�TFSÍP�KVMHBEPT����$POUSPMF�UPUBM�F
�WBMF�EJ[FS
�EJTDSJDJPOÈSJP��PT�
DSJUÏSJPT�MFHBJT�QBSB�DPODFTTÍP�EP�XSJU�PG�DFSUJPSBSJ�OÍP�WJODVMBN�B�4VQSFNB�$PSUF
�RVF�OÍP�
UFN
�QPSUBOUP
�RVBMRVFS�PCSJHBÎÍP�MFHBM�FYQMÓDJUB�EF�DPFSÐODJB�BP�EFDJEJS�QFMP�DPOIFDJNFO�
UP�PV�OÍP�EF�VNB�DBVTB��4VOTUFJO�BSHVNFOUB�RVF�FTTB�QSFSSPHBUJWB�UFN�TJEP�VUJMJ[BEB�QBSB�
FWJUBS�KVMHBS�DFSUPT�DBTPT�FN�SFMBÎÍP�BPT�RVBJT�IÈ�VN�EÏmDJU�EF�JOGPSNBÎÍP
�EF�NPEP�RVF��
QSFGFSÓWFM�EFJYBS�B�EFDJTÍP�QBSB�VN�NPNFOUP�QPTUFSJPS
�PV�BJOEB�KVMH�MB�EF�GPSNB�NJOJNB�
MJTUB�o�JTUP�Ï
�OÍP�TF�BQSPGVOEBOEP�OPT�EFCBUFT�KVSÓEJDPT�BMÏN�EP�OFDFTTÈSJP�Ë�SFTPMVÎÍP�EP�
DBTP�F�EFDJEJOEP�EF�GPSNB�B�NBJT�GPDBEB�OP�DBTP�QPTTÓWFM
�EJNJOVJOEP�BTTJN�PT�DVTUPT�QBSB�B�
SFWFSTÍP�EF�VNB�EFDJTÍP�RVF�TF�NPTUSF�FRVJWPDBEB�OP�GVUVSP��0�JOUFSFTTBOUF�Ï�RVF
�TFHVOEP�
4VOTUFJO
�PT�KVÓ[FT�EB�4VQSFNB�$PSUF�MFWBN�FN�DPOUB�BT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EB�EFDJTÍP�NFTNP�
RVBOEP�UÐN�DFSUF[B�EF�RVF�B�TVB�SFTQPTUB�QBSB�P�QSPCMFNB�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM�FN�KPHP�FTUÈ�DPSSFUB�
i0G�DPVSTF�UIF�$PVSU�T�SFTPMVUJPO�NBZ�CF�SJHIU
�JO�UIF�TFOTF�UIBU�UIF�$PVSU�JEFOUJmFT�
UIF�KVTU�SFTVMU��#VU�FWFO�JG�JU�JT�SJHIU
�UIJOHT�NBZ�HP�CBEMZ�XSPOH��DzF�$PVSU�NBZ�OPU�QSP�
EVDF�BQQSPQSJBUF�TPDJBM�SFGPSN�FWFO�JG�JU�TFFLT�UP�EP�TP��DzFSF�NBZ�CF�VOJOUFOEFE�BEWFSTF�
DPOTFRVFODFT�	���
��DzF�$PVSU�T�EFDJTJPO�NBZ�BDUJWBUF�PQQPTJOH�GPSDFT�BOE�EFNPCJMJ[F�UIF�
QPMJUJDBM�BDUPST�JU�GBWPST��*U�NBZ�QSPEVDF�JOUFOTF�TPDJBM�CBDLMBTI
�JO�UIF�QSPDFTT�PG�EFMFHJUJ�
NBUJOH�JUTFMG�BT�XFMM�BT�UIF�HPBM�JU�TFFLT�UP�QSPNPUF�w�	�������
� .FTNP�RVBOEP�QBSFDF�OÍP�IBWFS�EÞWJEB�BDFSDB�EB� JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�DPSSFUB�F
�DPO�
TFRàFOUFNFOUF
�EB�TPMVÎÍP�DPOTUJUVDJPOBM�BEFRVBEB�QBSB�P�DBTP
�QPEF�TFS�NFMIPS�QBSB�B�
TPDJFEBEF�o�QPS�NPUJWPT�JOEFQFOEFOUFT�EB�CVTDB�QFMB�TPMVÎÍP�KVSÓEJDB�QBSB�P�DBTP�o�RVF�
iBT�DPJTBT�TFKBN�EFJYBEBT�FN�BCFSUPw
�QBSB�VTBS�B�FYQSFTTÍP�EF�4VOTUFJO��6N�KVÓ[P�FNJOFOUF�
NFOUF�QPMÓUJDP��0�MFJUPS�OÍP�UFSÈ�QSPCMFNBT�FN�BDFJUBS�B�RVBMJmDBÎÍP�EF�UBJT�DPOTJEFSBÎÜFT�
DPNP�FYUSBKVSÓEJDBT��EJ[FN�SFTQFJUP�ËT�SFTQPOTBCJMJEBEFT�EB�4VQSFNB�$PSUF�OP�TJTUFNB�EF�
HPWFSOP�OPSUF�BNFSJDBOP
�NBT�OÍP�BGFUBN�B�JOUFSQSFUBÎÍP�FN�TJ�EBT�OPSNBT�KVSÓEJDBT��"SHV�
NFOUPT�KVSÓEJDPT�QPEFN�MFWBS�Ë�EFDJTÍP�DPSSFUB�FN�NVJUPT�DBTPT
�NBT
�NFTNP�OFTTFT�DBTPT
�
BSHVNFOUPT�FYUSBKVSÓEJDPT�DPOTFRàFODJBMJTUBT�QPEFN�KVTUJmDBS�VNB�OÍP�EFDJTÍP�
� /P�#SBTJM
�BQFTBS�EF�PT�USJCVOBJT�TVQFSJPSFT�OÍP�QPTTVÓSFN�B�MJCFSEBEF�FYQMÓDJUB�EF�
EFDJEJS�OÍP�EFDJEJS
�P�FNQSFHP�EBT�DPOTFRàÐODJBT�EB�EFDJTÍP�DPNP�BMHP�FYUFSOP�Ë�JOUFSQSF�
UBÎÍP�EBT�OPSNBT�FOWPMWJEBT�FODPOUSB�BNQMP�FTQBÎP�OB�BQSFDJBÎÍP
�QPS�QBSUF�EPT�5SJCVOBJT�
4VQFSJPSFT
�EF�QFEJEPT�EF�DPODFTTÍP�EF� MJNJOBSFT� FN�DBTPT�EF�DPOnJUPT�EF�NBTTB��/FTTF�
TFOUJEP
�P�4VQFSJPS�5SJCVOBM�EF�+VTUJÎB�UFN�DBTTBEP�EF[FOBT�EF�MJNJOBSFT�DPODFEJEBT�QBSB�
BTTFHVSBS�B�FOUJEBEFT�QSFTUBEPSBT�EF�TFSWJÎP�OB�ÈSFB�EB�TBÞEF�P�EJSFJUP�EF�SFBKVTUBS��PT�WBMPSFT�
EB�UBCFMB�EP�4JTUFNB�ÁOJDP�EF�4BÞEF��/PT�UFSNPT�EP�"HSBWP�3FHJNFOUBM�OB�4VTQFOTÍP�EF�
5VUFMB�"OUFDJQBEB����13�
1SPDFTTVBM�DJWJM��4VTQFOTÍP�EF�UVUFMB�BOUFDJQBEB��3FBKVTUF�EB�UBCFMB�EP�4JTUFNB�
ÁOJDP�EF�4BÞEF���464��-FTÍP�Ë�TBÞEF�F�FDPOPNJB�QÞCMJDPT��*���"�$PSUF�&TQFDJBM�
mSNPV�P� FOUFOEJNFOUP� EF� RVF� BT� JOÞNFSBT� BÎÜFT� QSPQPTUBT� DPN�P� JOUVJUP� EF� TF�
SFBKVTUBS�B�UBCFMB�EP�464�UÐN�QPUFODJBM�TVmDJFOUF�QBSB�DBVTBS�MFTÍP�Ë�TBÞEF�QÞCMJDB
�
WJTUP�RVF�EFWFN�TFS�BQSFDJBEBT�FN�DPOKVOUP�F�OÍP�FN�DBEB�DBTP�QBSUJDVMBS��**���"�QSP�
MJGFSBÎÍP�EF�BÎÜFT�JEÐOUJDBT�UFN�QPUFODJBM�TVmDJFOUF�QBSB�DBVTBS�MFTÍP�Ë�TBÞEF�QÞCMJDB
�
QPSRVBOUP�PT�SFDVSTPT�PSÎBNFOUÈSJPT�EFTUJOBEPT�BP�BUFOEJNFOUP�EF�UPEP�P�TJTUFNB�
QÞCMJDP�TFSÍP�EFTWJBEPT�QBSB�P�BUFOEJNFOUP�EF�JOUFSFTTF�EF�QBSUJDVMBSFT��***���"HSBWP�
SFHJNFOUBM�EFTQSPWJEP����
PRØPRIO�NA�TRADI¥ÎO�
lLOSØlCA��ESPECIALMENTE�
A�PARTIR�DO�PENSAMENTO�
ARISTOTÏLICO��/PONDO
SE�AOS�hARGUMENTOS�
TEØRICOSv��QUE�TÐM�
POR�lNALIDADE�LEVAR�O�
AUDITØRIO�A�ACEITAR�A�
VERDADE�OU�FALSIDADE�DE�
ALGUMA�PROPOSI¥ÎO��OS�
hARGUMENTOS�PRÉTICOSv�
VISAM�A�FAZER�COM�QUE�
O�AUDITØRIO�PRATIQUE�
OU�SE�ABSTENHA�DE�
ALGUMA�A¥ÎO��.ESSE�
SENTIDO��TODO�ARGU
MENTO�UTILIZADO�COM�
VISTAS�A�CONDUZIR�A�
DECISÎO�JUDICIAL�A�UMA�
DETERMINADA�DIRE¥ÎO�
Ï�hPRÉTICOv��!GRADE¥O�A�
.OEL�3TRUCHINER�POR�TER�
ME�CHAMADO�A�ATEN¥ÎO�
PARA�ESSE�PONTO��
��#!,6/��2�#��6%2.)%2��#���
OP��CIT���P�����
���3USTENTAR�A�TESE�
DE�QUE�ARGUMENTOS�
ECONÙMICOS�OU�MORAIS�
SÎO�INTRINSECAMENTE�
IRRACIONAIS��UM�
EMPREENDIMENTO�DIFÓCIL��
DADA�A�LONGA�TRADI¥ÎO�
DE�REmEXÎO�SOBRE�
MODELOS�DE�DECISÎO�
RACIONAL�OU�hCORRETAv�
TANTO�NO�ÊMBITO�MORAL��
QUANTO�NO�ECONÙMICO��
%SPECIlCAMENTE�
NO�PENSAMENTO�
ECONÙMICO��O�PROBLEMA�
DA�RACIONALIDADE�DE�
PROCESSOS�DECISØRIOS�
VEM�SENDO�TRABAL
HADO�COM�MUITO�MAIS�
SOlSTICA¥ÎO�DO�QUE�NO�
ÊMBITO�JUDICIAL��#F���A�
TÓTULO�DE�EXEMPLIlCA¥ÎO��
AS�QUESTÜES�E�DEBATES�
ABORDADOS�POR�!MARTYA�
3EN�EM�3OBRE�¡TICA�E�
%CONOMIA������	�E�h4HE�
$ISCIPLINE�OF�#OST
"EN
ElT�!NALYSISv������	�
���35.34%).��#��/NE�
#ASE�AT�A�4IME��*UDICIAL�
-INIMALISM�ON�THE�
3UPREME�#OURT������	��
P�����h!�CLUE�TO�UNDER
STANDING�MINIMALISM�
IS�TO�RECOGNIZE�THAT�IN�
DECIDING�CONSTITUTIONAL�
CASES��JUDGES�OFTEN�LACK�
RELEVANT�INFORMATION��
AND�THEIR�RULINGS�MIGHT�
HAVE�UNINTENDED�CONSE
QUENCES�v
���./7!+��*�%����2/
45.$!��2�$��#ONSTITU

Outros materiais