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Abertura Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos versão 2.0 Dados Comuns do Projeto: Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos Cliente: Turma de Riscos Gerente Responsável: Mauro Sotille Data Análise: 1/14/10 Resp. Revisão: Mauro Sotille Data Última Revisão: 2/15/10 Foco da Análise: Análise de Custos 1 Valor Base do Projeto: 100,000.00 Novo Valor Base do Projeto: 103,000.00 Sistema Gerencial: Processo de Identificação dos Riscos: Brainstorming Responsáveis no Acompanhamento: Equipe do Projeto Contexto do Projeto: Projeto Educacional Campos de Entrada de Dados Ameacas-PreReacao Lista de Riscos - Ameaças - Analise Inicial Pré-Reação Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Sensibilidade: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille No. Data Categoria Evento de Ameaça Probabi- Impacto Impacto Valor Priori- Identif. (descrição do Risco, com causa e consequência) lidade (%) (input) Ajustado Esperado dade 1 15/01/07 Gerencial Aula esgotar prazo 50% $40,000 $40,000 $20,000 1 2 15/01/07 Técnico Sistema de apresentação falhar 10% $5,000 $5,000 $500 2 3 Risco C 0% $0 $0 $0 4 4 Risco D 0% $0 $0 $0 2 5 0% $0 $0 $0 4 6 0% $0 $0 $0 4 7 0% $0 $0 $0 4 8 0% $0 $0 $0 4 9 0% $0 $0 $0 4 10 0% $0 $0 $0 4 11 0% $0 $0 $0 4 12 0% $0 $0 $0 4 13 0% $0 $0 $0 4 14 0% $0 $0 $0 4 15 0% $0 $0 $0 4 16 0% $0 $0 $0 4 17 0% $0 $0 $0 4 18 0% $0 $0 $0 4 19 0% $0 $0 $0 4 20 0% $0 $0 $0 4 21 0% $0 $0 $0 4 22 0% $0 $0 $0 4 23 0% $0 $0 $0 4 24 0% $0 $0 $0 4 25 0% $0 $0 $0 4 26 0% $0 $0 $0 4 27 0% $0 $0 $0 4 28 0% $0 $0 $0 4 29 0% $0 $0 $0 4 30 0% $0 $0 $0 4 31 0% $0 $0 $0 4 32 0% $0 $0 $0 4 33 0% $0 $0 $0 4 34 0% $0 $0 $0 4 35 0% $0 $0 $0 4 36 0% $0 $0 $0 4 37 0% $0 $0 $0 4 38 0% $0 $0 $0 4 39 0% $0 $0 $0 4 40 0% $0 $0 $0 4 41 0% $0 $0 $0 4 42 0% $0 $0 $0 4 43 0% $0 $0 $0 4 44 0% $0 $0 $0 4 45 0% $0 $0 $0 4 46 0% $0 $0 $0 4 47 0% $0 $0 $0 4 48 0% $0 $0 $0 4 49 0% $0 $0 $0 4 50 0% $0 $0 $0 4 Valor Esperado do Projeto $45,000 $20,500 Probabilidade: Chance de Ocorrência do Risco (%) Sensibilidade: Percentual de variação sobre a Quantificação (probabilidade e Impacto) do Risco - ferramenta de análise de Sensibilidade Oport-PreReacao Lista de Riscos - Oportunidades - Analise Inicial Pré-Reação Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Sensibilidade: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille No. Data Categoria Evento de Oportunidade Probabi- Impacto Impacto Valor Priori- Identif. (descrição do Risco com causa e consequência) lidade (%) (input) Ajustado Esperado dade 1 15/02/10 Gerencial Outros negócios 50% $10,000 $10,000 $5,000 1 2 15/02/10 Logistica Aumentar número de alunos 10% $15,000 $15,000 $1,500 2 3 0% $0 $0 $0 1 4 0% $0 $0 $0 1 5 0% $0 $0 $0 1 6 0% $0 $0 $0 1 7 0% $0 $0 $0 1 8 0% $0 $0 $0 1 9 0% $0 $0 $0 1 10 0% $0 $0 $0 1 11 0% $0 $0 $0 1 12 0% $0 $0 $0 1 13 0% $0 $0 $0 1 14 0% $0 $0 $0 1 15 0% $0 $0 $0 1 16 0% $0 $0 $0 1 17 0% $0 $0 $0 1 18 0% $0 $0 $0 1 19 0% $0 $0 $0 1 20 0% $0 $0 $0 1 21 0% $0 $0 $0 1 22 0% $0 $0 $0 1 23 0% $0 $0 $0 1 24 0% $0 $0 $0 1 25 0% $0 $0 $0 1 26 0% $0 $0 $0 1 27 0% $0 $0 $0 1 28 0% $0 $0 $0 1 29 0% $0 $0 $0 1 30 0% $0 $0 $0 1 31 0% $0 $0 $0 1 32 0% $0 $0 $0 1 33 0% $0 $0 $0 1 34 0% $0 $0 $0 1 35 0% $0 $0 $0 1 36 0% $0 $0 $0 1 37 0% $0 $0 $0 1 38 0% $0 $0 $0 1 39 0% $0 $0 $0 1 40 0% $0 $0 $0 1 41 0% $0 $0 $0 1 42 0% $0 $0 $0 1 43 0% $0 $0 $0 1 44 0% $0 $0 $0 1 45 0% $0 $0 $0 1 46 0% $0 $0 $0 1 47 0% $0 $0 $0 1 48 0% $0 $0 $0 1 49 0% $0 $0 $0 1 50 0% $0 $0 $0 1 Valor Esperado do Projeto $25,000 $6,500 Probabilidade: Chance de Ocorrência do Risco (%) Sensibilidade: Percentual de variação sobre a Quantificação (probabilidade e Impacto) do Risco - ferramenta de análise de Sensibilidade VE-PreReacao Valor Esperado do Projeto - Inicial (Pré-Reação) Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos Sensibilidade: Cliente: Turma de Riscos Ameaças: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille Oportunidades: 100% Análise de Custos Valores Percent. Observação Valor Base do Projeto $100,000 100.00% sem Riscos Riscos - Ameaças $20,500 20.50% Valor Esperado Riscos - Oportunidades ($6,500) -6.50% Valor Esperado Valor Esperado do Projeto com Riscos $114,000 14.00% Totais Valor Esperado - Melhor Caso $75,000 -25.00% Oportunidades $25,000 Valor Esperado - Pior Caso $145,000 45.00% Ameaças $45,000 Prioridade Priorização de Riscos MBA Gerência de Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Resp: Mauro Sotille Riscos - Ameaças # Prioridade 1 Aula esgotar prazo 1 1 3 2 Sistema de apresentação falhar 2 2 3 1 3 Risco C 1 2 3 0 4 4 Risco D 4 2 4 4 2 2 5 0 5 0 4 6 0 6 0 4 7 0 7 0 4 8 0 8 0 4 9 0 9 0 4 10 0 10 0 4 11 0 11 0 4 12 0 12 0 4 13 0 13 0 4 14 0 14 0 4 15 0 15 0 4 16 0 16 0 4 17 0 17 0 4 18 0 18 0 4 19 0 19 0 4 20 0 20 0 4 21 0 21 0 4 22 0 22 0 4 23 0 23 0 4 24 0 24 0 4 25 0 25 0 4 26 0 26 0 4 27 0 27 0 4 28 0 28 0 4 29 0 29 0 4 30 0 30 0 4 31 0 31 0 4 32 0 32 0 4 33 0 33 0 4 34 0 34 0 4 35 0 35 0 4 36 0 36 0 4 37 0 37 0 4 38 0 38 0 4 39 0 39 0 4 40 0 40 0 4 41 0 41 0 4 42 0 42 0 4 43 0 43 0 4 44 0 44 0 4 45 0 45 0 4 46 0 46 0 4 47 0 47 0 4 48 0 48 0 4 49 0 49 0 4 50 0 50 0 4 Riscos - Oportunidades # Prioridade 1 Outros negócios 1 0 1 2 Aumentar número de alunos 2 0 1 3 0 3 0 1 4 0 4 0 1 5 0 5 0 1 6 0 6 0 1 7 0 7 0 1 8 0 8 0 1 9 0 9 0 1 10 0 10 0 1 11 0 11 0 1 12 0 12 0 1 13 0 13 0 1 14 0 14 0 1 15 0 15 0 1 16 0 16 0 1 17 0 17 0 1 18 0 18 0 1 19 0 19 0 1 20 0 20 0 1 21 0 21 0 1 22 0 22 0 1 23 0 23 0 1 24 0 24 0 1 25 0 25 0 1 26 0 26 0 1 27 0 27 0 1 28 0 28 0 1 29 0 29 0 1 30 0 30 0 1 31 0 31 0 1 32 0 32 0 1 33 0 33 0 1 34 0 34 0 1 35 0 35 0 1 36 0 36 0 1 37 0 37 0 1 38 0 38 0 1 39 0 39 0 1 40 0 40 0 1 41 0 41 0 1 42 0 42 0 1 43 0 43 0 1 44 0 44 0 1 45 0 45 0 1 46 0 46 0 1 47 0 47 0 1 48 0 48 0 1 49 0 49 0 1 50 0 50 0 1 Reacao-Pré Reações Aos Riscos - Contenção/ Prevenção e Contingência Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Tipos de reação Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Aceitar Ativa Aceitar Resp: Mauro Sotille Aceitar Passiva Alavancar Mitigar Provocar AMEAÇAS CONTENÇÃO/ PREVENÇÃO NOVO CONTINGÊNCIA Transferir No. Data Categoria Evento Valor Reação Estratégia Custo da Probabi- Impacto Valor Reação Custo da Eliminar Identif. (descrição do Risco) Esperado Reação lidade (%) (input) Esperado Reação 1 15/1/07 Gerencial Aula esgotar prazo $20,000 Eliminar o intevalo Mitigar $1,000 50% $40,000 $20,000 Outra aula $15,000 2 15/1/07 Técnico Sistema de apresentação falhar $500 Backup Mitigar $2,000 10% $5,000 $500 $0 3 31/12/99 0 Risco C $0 Resposta C Aceitar Ativa $0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 31/12/99 0 Risco D $0 Resposta D Aceitar Passiva $0 0% $0 $0 $0 5 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 6 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 7 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 8 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 9 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 10 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 11 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 12 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 13 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 14 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 15 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 16 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 17 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 18 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 19 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 20 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 21 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 22 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 23 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 24 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 25 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 26 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 27 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 28 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 29 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 30 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 31 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 32 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 33 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 34 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 35 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 36 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 37 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 38 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 39 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 40 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 41 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 42 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 43 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 44 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 45 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 46 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 47 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 48 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 49 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 50 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 $20,500 $3,000 $20,500 $15,000 OPORTUNIDADES CONTENÇÃO/ PREVENÇÃO NOVO CONTINGÊNCIA No. Data Categoria Evento Valor Reação Estratégia Custo da Probabi- Impacto Valor Estratégia de Reação Custo da Identif. (descrição do Risco) Esperado Reação lidade (%) (input) Esperado Reação 1 15/2/10 Gerencial Outros negócios $5,000 Reservar Agenda Aceitar $0 50% $10,000 $5,000 $0 2 15/2/10 Logistica Aumentar número de alunos $1,500 Promover Provocar $0 10% $15,000 $1,500 $0 3 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 5 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 6 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 7 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 8 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 9 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 10 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 11 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 12 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 13 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 14 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 15 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 16 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 17 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 18 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 19 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 20 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 21 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 22 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 23 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 24 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 25 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 26 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 27 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 28 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 29 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 30 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 31 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 32 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 33 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 34 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 35 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 36 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 37 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 38 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 39 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 40 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 41 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 42 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 43 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 44 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 45 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 46 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 47 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 48 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 49 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 50 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 0% $0 $0 $0 $6,500 $0 $6,500 $0 Ameacas Lista de Riscos - Ameaças - Pós-Reação (durante o Projeto) Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Sensibilidade: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille No. Data Categoria Evento de Ameaça Probabi- Impacto Impacto Valor Priori- Identif. (descrição do Risco) lidade (%) (input) Ajustado Esperado dade 1 15/1/07 Gerencial Aula esgotar prazo 50% $1,000 $1,000 $500 3 2 15/1/07 Técnico Sistema de apresentação falhar 1% $5,000 $5,000 $50 1 3 31/12/99 0 Risco C 0% $0 $0 $0 4 4 31/12/99 0 Risco D 0% $0 $0 $0 2 5 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 6 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 7 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 8 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 9 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 10 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 11 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 12 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 13 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 14 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 15 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 16 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 17 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 18 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 19 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 20 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 21 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 22 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 23 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 24 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 25 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 26 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 27 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 28 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 29 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 30 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 31 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 32 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 33 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 34 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 35 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 36 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 37 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 38 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 39 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 40 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 41 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 42 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 43 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 44 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 45 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 46 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 47 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 48 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 49 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 50 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 4 Valor Esperado do Projeto $6,000 $550 Probabilidade: Chance de Ocorrência do Risco (%) Sensibilidade: Percentual de variação sobre a Quantificação (probabilidade e Impacto) do Risco - ferramenta de análise Oportunidades Lista de Riscos - Oportunidades - Pós-Reação (durante o Projeto) Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Sensibilidade: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille No. Data Categoria Evento de Oportunidade Probabi- Impacto Impacto Valor Priori- Identif. (descrição do Risco) lidade (%) (input) Ajustado Esperado dade 1 15/02/10 Gerencial Outros negócios 70% $10,000 $10,000 $7,000 1 2 15/02/10 Logistica Aumentar número de alunos 20% $15,000 $15,000 $3,000 1 3 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 4 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 5 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 6 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 7 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 8 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 9 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 10 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 11 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 12 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 13 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 14 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 15 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 16 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 17 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 18 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 19 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 20 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 21 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 22 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 23 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 24 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 25 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 26 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 27 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 28 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 29 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 30 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 31 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 32 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 33 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 34 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 35 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 36 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 37 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 38 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 39 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 40 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 41 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 42 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 43 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 44 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 45 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 46 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 47 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 48 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 49 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 50 31/12/99 0 0 0% $0 $0 $0 1 Valor Esperado do Projeto $25,000 $10,000 Probabilidade: Chance de Ocorrência do Risco (%) Sensibilidade: Percentual de variação sobre a Quantificação (probabilidade e Impacto) do Risco - ferramenta de análise ValorEsperado Valor Esperado do Projeto - Pós-Reação - Base para Proposta Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos Sensibilidade: Cliente: Turma de Riscos Ameaças: 100% Resp: Mauro Sotille Oportunidades: 100% Análise de Custos Valores Percent. Observação Valor Base do Projeto - Original $100,000 sem Riscos Custo das Reações - Ameaças $3,000 Custo das Reações - Oportunidades $0 Novo Valor Base do Projeto $103,000 3.00% Com os Custos das Reações Riscos - Ameaças $550 0.53% Valor Esperado Riscos - Oportunidades ($10,000) -9.71% Valor Esperado Valor Esperado do Projeto com Riscos $93,550 -9.17% Totais Valor Esperado - Melhor Caso $78,000 -24.27% Oportunidades $25,000 Valor Esperado - Pior Caso $109,000 5.83% Ameaças $6,000 Reserva de Contingência $15,000 14.56% Reserva Gerencial $5,000 4.85% Entrar com o Valor Desejado (menor que os usuais 10%) Total das Reservas $20,000 19.42% Para Durante o Projeto CONCLUSÃO - entrar com o texto referente a suas conclusões sobre o Projeto - Base para a Proposta RiscoXReação Matriz de Reação X Riscos Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos Cliente: Turma de Riscos Resp: Mauro Sotille REAÇÕES RISCOS AMEAÇAS OPORTUNIDADES AMEAÇAS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1 + 2 - + 3 + 4 + + 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 OPORT. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 ControleRiscos Controle dos Riscos Durante o Desenvolvimento do Projeto Gerenciamento de Riscos em Projetos Tipos de reação Projeto: Projeto Aula de Riscos 1/14/10 Cliente: Turma de Riscos Contingencia Resp: Mauro Sotille Contorno AMEAÇAS (Oportunidades Abaixo) No. Data Categoria Evento de Ameaça Novo Valor Reação Ação Custo da Responsável Responsável Data Data Valor Observação Identif. (descrição do Risco) Esperado de Reação Acomp. Reação Reação Ocorrência Ocorrência 1 15/01/07 Gerencial Aula esgotar prazo $500 Outra aula Contingencia $15,000 Mauro Pedro 2/20/10 3/14/10 $4,000 2 15/01/07 Técnico Sistema de apresentação falhar $50 0 Contorno $0 $0 3 31/12/99 0 Risco C $0 0 $0 $0 4 31/12/99 0 Risco D $0 $0 $0 5 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 6 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 7 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 $0 8 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 $0 9 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 $0 10 31/12/99 0 0 $0 $0 $0 11 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 12 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 13 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 14 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 15 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 16 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 17 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 18 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 19 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 20 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 21 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 22 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 23 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 24 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 25 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 26 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 27 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 28 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 29 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 30 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 31 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 32 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 33 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 34 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 35 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 36 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 37 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 38 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 39 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 40 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 41 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 42 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 43 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 44 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 45 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 46 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 47 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 48 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 49 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 50 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $550 $15,000 $4,000 OPORTUNIDADES No. Data Categoria Evento de Oportunidade Novo Valor Reação Ação Custo da Responsável Responsável Data Data Valor Observação Identif. (descrição do Risco) Esperado de Reação Acomp. Reação Reação Ocorrência Ocorrência 1 15/02/10 Gerencial Outros negócios $7,000 $0 $0 2 15/02/10 Logistica Aumentar número de alunos $3,000 0 $0 $0 3 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 4 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 5 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 6 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 7 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 8 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 9 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 10 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 11 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 12 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 13 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 14 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 15 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 16 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 17 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 18 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 19 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 20 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 21 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 22 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 23 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 24 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 25 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 26 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 27 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 28 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 29 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 30 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 31 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 32 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 33 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 34 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 35 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 36 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 37 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 38 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 39 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 40 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 41 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 42 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 43 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 44 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 45 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 46 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 47 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 48 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 49 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 50 31/12/99 0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0
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