Projeta beta 2015

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LOGISTIC
	Tabela 2 - Projeção da Esperança de Vida ao Nascer (Modelo Logístico)
	Alagoas - 2000 - 2035 (Feminina)
	Interpolation and Extrapolation of				Index
	Using a Logistic Function.
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Item or	Index	|			|
	year	value	|	Year	Index	|	Year	Index
	-	-	|	-	-	|	-	-
	Asymptotes:		|	1995.00	0.88	|	1995.00	0.88
			|	1996.00	0.90	|	2000.00	0.98
	Lower	0.70	|	1997.00	0.92	|	2005.00	1.05
	Upper	1.100	|	1998.00	0.94	|	2010.00	1.08
			|	1999.00	0.96	|	2015.00	1.09
	Input values		|	2000.00	0.98	|	2020.00	1.10
			|	2001.00	1.00	|	2025.00	1.099
	1995.00	0.963	|	2002.00	1.01	|	2030.00	1.100
	2000.00	0.89	|	2003.00	1.03	|	2035.00	1.100
	2005.00	1.00	|	2004.00	1.04	|	2040.00	1.100
	2010.00	1.09	|	2005.00	1.05	|	2045.00	1.100
			|	2006.00	1.06	|	2050.00	1.100
			|	2007.00	1.07	|	2055.00	1.100
			|	2008.00	1.07	|	2060.00	1.100
			|	2009.00	1.08	|	2065.00	1.100
			|	2010.00	1.08	|	2070.00	1.100
			|	2011.00	1.08	|	2075.00	1.10
			|	2012.00	1.09	|	2080.00	1.10
			|	2013.00	1.09	|	2085.00	1.10
			|	2014.00	1.09	|	2090.00	1.10
			|	2015.00	1.09	|	2095.00	1.10
			|	2016.00	1.09	|	2100.00	1.10
			|	2017.00	1.10	|	2105.00	1.10
			|	2018.00	1.10	|	2110.00	1.10
	-	-	|	2019.00	1.10	|	2115.00	1.10
			|	2020.00	1.10	|	2120.00	1.10
			|	2021.00	1.10	|	2125.00	1.10
			|	2022.00	1.10	|	2130.00	1.10
	Beginning date for		|	2023.00	1.10	|	2135.00	1.10
	results:	1995.00	|	2024.00	1.10	|	2140.00	1.10
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Source:
	
	
	
	
	
	
	[FILE NAME] [DISKNAME] [DATE] [INITIALS]
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS CENTER
		POPULATION ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS (PAS)
	
	DOCUMENTATION: LOGISTIC
	
	**** D E S C R I P T I O N ****
	
	This spreadsheet interpolates and extrapolates any desired index. It
	fits a logistic function to 2 to 17 index values, given the values of
	upper and lower asymptotes.
	
	PRESS PgDn FOR FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	**** I N P U T ****
	
	CELL	ITEM
	-----------	-	-	-	-	-	-
	A1	Table number. Type both "Table" and the number.
	A2	Country name and year (e.g. Burundi: 1975).
		Type over "COUNTRY: YEAR".
	E3	Index name.
	B11	Lower asymptote.
	B12	Upper asymptote.
	A16-A32	Dates of index.
	B16-B32	Index values.
	C38	Beginning date for displaying the results (e.g. 1960.50).
	A40-I46	Sources of the input data.
	A47	Filename, disk name, date, and initials. Type all of these
		into the same cell.
	
	PRESS PgDn FOR FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS
	
	
	**** R E S U L T S ****
	
	CELL	ITEM
	-----------	-	-	-	-	-	-
	A1-I48	Interpolation and extrapolation of index using
		a logistic function.
	
	
	
	**** G R A P H S ****
	
	NAME	ITEM
	-----------	-	-	-	-	-	-
	GRAPH1	Index.
	GRAPH2	Input/output values.
	
	PRESS PgDn FOR HELP SCREEN
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	DATA USED FOR CALCULATION AND ESTIMATION PURPOSES:
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Difference between the upper and lower asymptotes:							0.40000000000000013
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
					Logit(Index)
		Year			x
	Year	squared		Logit(Index)	year
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	
	1995.0	3.98E+06		0.6522	1301.09
	2000.0	4.00E+06		-0.0700	-140.06
	2005.0	4.02E+06		1.0986	2202.72
	2010.0	4.04E+06		3.8918	7822.56
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	0.0	0.00E+00		0.0000	0.00
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	8010.0	1.60E+07		5.5726	11186.30		Total
	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Number of input values				4.0
	
	-	-	-	-
	Item			Value
	-	-	-	-
	Slope			0.2178
	Intercept			-434.655
	-	-	-	-
	Interpolated/Extrapolated Values of Logit(Index)
	-	-	-	-	-
	Year	Logit(Index)		Year	Logit(Index)
	-	-	-	-	-
	1995.00	-0.2400		1995.00	-0.2400
	1996.00	-0.0222		2000.00	0.8488
	1997.00	0.1955		2005.00	1.9375
	1998.00	0.4133		2010.00	3.0263
	1999.00	0.6310		2015.00	4.1150
	2000.00	0.8488		2020.00	5.2038
	2001.00	1.0665		2025.00	6.2926
	2002.00	1.2843		2030.00	7.3813
	2003.00	1.5020		2035.00	8.4701
	2004.00	1.7198		2040.00	9.5588
	2005.00	1.9375		2045.00	10.6476
	2006.00	2.1553		2050.00	11.7363
	2007.00	2.3730		2055.00	12.8251
	2008.00	2.5908		2060.00	13.9139
	2009.00	2.8085		2065.00	15.0026
	2010.00	3.0263		2070.00	16.0914
	2011.00	3.2440		2075.00	17.1801
	2012.00	3.4618		2080.00	18.2689
	2013.00	3.6795		2085.00	19.3577
	2014.00	3.8973		2090.00	20.4464
	2015.00	4.1150		2095.00	21.5352
	2016.00	4.3328		2100.00	22.6239
	2017.00	4.5505		2105.00	23.7127
	2018.00	4.7683		2110.00	24.8014
	2019.00	4.9860		2115.00	25.8902
	2020.00	5.2038		2120.00	26.9790
	2021.00	5.4215		2125.00	28.0677
	2022.00	5.6393		2130.00	29.1565
	2023.00	5.8571		2135.00	30.2452
	2024.00	6.0748		2140.00	31.3340
	-	-	-	-	-
	
	
	
	Titles for graphs:
	Input and Output Indexes for Graph (View 3)
	-	-	-	-
	Year	Input		Output
	-	-	-	-
	1995.0	0.96
	2000.0	0.89
	2005.0	1.00
	2010.0	1.09
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0	0.00
	1995.0			0.88
	1996.0			0.90
	1997.0			0.92
	1998.0			0.94
	1999.0			0.96
	2000.0			0.98
	2001.0			1.00
	2002.0			1.01
	2003.0			1.03
	2004.0			1.04
	2005.0			1.05
	2006.0			1.06
	2007.0			1.07
	2008.0			1.07
	2009.0			1.08
	2010.0			1.08
	2011.0			1.08
	2012.0			1.09
	2013.0			1.09
	2014.0			1.09
	2015.0			1.09
	2016.0			1.09
	2017.0			1.10
	2018.0			1.10
	2019.0			1.10
	2020.0			1.10
	2021.0			1.10
	2022.0			1.10
	2023.0			1.10
	2024.0			1.10
	-	-	-	-
	1. Index
	2. Index
	3. Input/Output Values of Index
LOGISTIC
	
GRAPH2
	0.963	1995.0
	0.893	2000.0
	1.0	2005.0
	1.092	2010.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	1995.0
	1995.0	0.8761152206437608
	1996.0	0.897775946813649
	1997.0	0.9194889802946739
	1998.0	0.9407479003185701
	1999.0	0.9610876938305603
	2000.0	0.980123216043888
	2001.0	0.9975735771917755
	2002.0	1.0132701938367124
	2003.0	1.027150229283953
	2004.0	1.0392397733927667
	2005.0	1.0496319240833885
	2006.0	1.0584642728232792
	2007.0	1.0658988772421496
	2008.0	1.0721062905142995
	2009.0	1.0772540128327976
	2010.0	1.081498968196596
	2011.0	1.0849832458045496
	2012.0	1.087832262380993
	2013.0	1.0901545794564595
	2014.0	1.0920427563383281
	2015.0	1.0935747779313636
	2016.0	1.0948157373171057
	2017.0	1.0958195651349918
	2018.0	1.0966306807026807
	2019.0	1.0972854975608408
	2020.0	1.0978137542453643
	2021.0	1.0982396648596116
	2022.0	1.0985828978225356
	2023.0	1.0988593983509625
	2024.0	1.0990820732096007
Gráfico 14 - Esperança de Vida Feminina ao Nascer Observada e Projetada
Alagoas - 1995 a 2010
Observda
Ajuste Logístico
Ano
E0
GRAPH1
	0.8761152206437608
	0.980123216043888
	1.0496319240833885
	1.081498968196596
	1.0935747779313636
	1.0978137542453643
	1.0992613566980092
	1.0997510423980796
	1.0999161577277987
	1.0999717718945183
	1.0999904970079841
	1.099996800916984
	1.0999989230733718
	1.0999996374689638
	1.0999998779595628
	1.0999999589170006
	1.0999999861700545
	1.0999999953443664
	1.0999999984327544
	1.0999999994724114
	1.0999999998223957
Gráfico 15 - Projeção da Esperança de Vida Feminina ao Nascer
Sergipe - 1980 a 2000
Ano
E0