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1 A U S T R A L I A N Optimising the Mine Plan Brian Hall Principal Mining Engineer AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 21 / 179 Turbot St Brisbane Queensland 4000 Australia bhall@amcconsultants.com Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 1© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Outline – Mine Strategy Optimisation • Principles of mine strategy optimisation: Finding the mine plans that deliver the corporate goals • The strategy optimisation process: Strategy selection vs strategy optimisation • Risk management: Balancing upside reward and downside risk • Answering misconceptions and objections • Typical case study outcomes Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 2 2 A U S T R A L I A N What is Cut-off Grade? • Important to distinguish between: – Definition • A number separating two courses of action • In particular, distinguishing ore and waste – Purpose • To achieve some economic or financial goal • e.g., ensure profitability, maximise value etc – Method of determination • Break-even calculations • Lane’s methodology • Strategy Optimisation Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 3© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N How the junior geologist or engineer determines the CEO’s bonus! • The goals implicit in the cut-off derivation process will become de facto high ranking corporate goals, whether recognised as such or not! – For example, using a simple “break-even” grade (however that’s defined) as the cut-off merely ensures that the break-even is achieved – There is no reason why this should “maximise shareholder value” (however that’s defined!) • The corporate goals must therefore be an integral part of the evaluation process! – But typically they are NOT! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 4© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 3 A U S T R A L I A N Mine Strategy Optimisation Getting to the best combination of cut-off grades and other design parameters to achieve the corporate goals Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 5© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Where is the industry’s focus? There is a lot of emphasis in the mining industry on improvements in productivity, efficiency, unit costs etc This is “Doing Things Right” This is good, but we often miss the more fundamental issue: Are we “Doing the Right Things”? Ultimately, we should aim to be “Doing the Right Things Right” but logically the first concern must be “Doing the Right Things” Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 6© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 4 A U S T R A L I A N Three types of “big picture” parameters . . . What is given What we can change What follows from our strategic decisions Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 7© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N The mineral resource The existing infrastructure and environment Size of Mine Mining Methods Production Rate Sequencing Knowledge of Resource Schedules of production and associated activities Revenue streams Project capital expenditure Removing bottlenecks Enhancing products Operating and sustaining capital costs Where are the real drivers of value? VALUE Improving efficiencies etc here will have some impact . . . . . . but the impact may be minimal if the operation is not going in the right direction! What is given What we can change What follows from our strategic decisions Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 8© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 5 A U S T R A L I A N The mineral resource The existing infrastructure and environment Size of Mine Mining Methods Production Rate Sequencing Knowledge of Resource Schedules of production and associated activities Revenue streams Project capital expenditure Removing bottlenecks Enhancing products Operating and sustaining capital costs Where are the real drivers of value? VALUE What mix of theseWhat mix of these maximises this? VALUE What is given What we can change What follows from our strategic decisions Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 9© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N How do we specify the “size of the mine”? • Open Pit – Select one of a number of alternative “pit shells” – Cut-off selection is a secondary decision • Underground – Select one of a number of alternative cut-off- defined “orebodies” – Cut-off selection is the primary decision Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 10© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 6 A U S T R A L I A N There is an optimum cut-off grade . . . Increasing Cut-off Grade In cr ea si ng V al ue (For a given mining method, capital plan, production rate, and associated parameters) Cut-off too low, unprofitable material included in the reserve Cut-off too high, valuable material excluded from the reserve Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 11© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N . . . and an optimum production rate Increasing Production Rate In cr ea si ng V al ue (For a given mining method, capital plan, cut-off grade, and associated parameters) Production not utilising existing capacity Minor debottlenecking capex Major debottlenecking capex Production not utilising new capacity Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 12© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 7 A U S T R A L I A N What is the optimum combination? Increasing Production Rate Increasing Cut-off Grade Increasing Value For a given mining method, capital plan, and associated parameters, value will be a function of both production rate and cut-off grade Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 13© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Finding and Climbing the Hill of Value Increasing Production Rate Increasing Cut-off Grade Increasing Value Typical state of current operation: A long way from optimum OptRate Ridge Capex Gully Typical improvement proposal: Arbitrary production rate increase; May or may not improve value ValMax Hill Ideal improvement proposal: Change production rate & cut-off grade (& mining method?) to maximise value Similar plots for other factors of interest, other mining methods etc, permit informed tradeoffs between options, for best strategy overall Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 14© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 8 A U S T R A L I A N Case Study Results – Various Parameters vs Cut-off Grade $ $ $ $ $ 2 3 4 5 6 Cutoff [g/t Au] NPV @ 0% NPV @ 5% NPV @ 10% Avg oz / yr Avg $ / oz$ Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 15© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Open Pit Case Study Results – NPV vs ROM Cut-off & Mining Rate Increasing ROM Cut-off • Open pit mining plans are often “self-debottlenecking” – Planned mining rates deliver planned ore tonnes at planned cut-offs – The ROM cut-off is optimised at those rates “automatically” • Faster mining allows a higher ROM cut-off – Higher head grade more than covers higher mining costs and adds value – up to a point • Access development rates underground are analogous Mining Rate as % of Base Case Rate 100% 150% 200% Contour Interval $50M PreTax NPV Higher Value Case BaseCase Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 16© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 9 A U S T R A L I A N The Mine Strategy Optimisation Process Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 17© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Strategy Optimisation vs Typical Strategy Selection • Typical evaluation processes – Handle many relationships in external processes to generate a limited number of preset strategies for evaluation – Engineering resources generate multiple plans and schedules • Optimisation – Handles all relationships inside the evaluation model to facilitate automated strategy flexing – Engineering resources generate relationships from limited number of plans and schedules Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 18© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 10 A U S T R A L I A N The Typical Strategy Selection Process Base Case Option A Option B Results Decisions Corporate goals Simple Model Project Capex Prodn & Devt Schedules Ongoing capex Debottlenecking options Operating cost drivers Met. performance Closure issues Revenue dataReserves data Mine design data Schedule data Production targets Production constraints Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 19© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N The Mine Strategy Optimisation Process Results Decisions Corporate goals Robust Model Ongoing capex Debottlenecking options Operating cost drivers Met. performance Closure issues Revenue dataReserves data Mine design data Schedule data Production targets Production constraints Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 20© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 11 A U S T R A L I A N The Mine Strategy Optimisation Process (1) • Geology – Create a reliable model for the range of cut-offs to be investigated – Generate “orebodies” at each cut-off – Identify domains which may require different • Mining methods • Scheduling constraints • Metallurgical treatment • etc • Mining – Identify suitable methods – Open Pit: Create pit shell / bench group blocks and tonnage / grade data – U/ground: Identify mining blocks; generate reserves & devt requirements for each cut-off and method – Identify scheduling rules & production constraints – Produce calibration designs and schedules for representative cases Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 21© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N The Mine Strategy Optimisation Process (2) • Metallurgy – Specify recovery relationships, for the range of cut-offs to be evaluated – Identify constraints, and how to remove them, for • Ore stream • Product stream(s) – Identify the impact of debottlenecking on recovery, product quality etc • Operating Costs – Fixed costs – Variable costs, driven by, e.g.: Open Pit • Tonnes mined Underground • Development metres • Ore tonnes • Backfill tonnes All Operations • Truck tonne.kilometres • Tonnes treated • Product quantities – Capacity / step variable costs Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 22© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 12 A U S T R A L I A N The Mine Strategy Optimisation Process (3) • Capital costs – Sustaining capital – Fleet replacement – Debottlenecking & project capital • Impact on future maintenance & operating costs, & sustaining capital – Exploration • In / near mine • Regional • Effect of additional discoveries on plans • End of Life Issues – Redundancy payments – Rehabilitation costs and commitments • Social Issues • Other Financial Issues – Product prices and sales terms – Taxation – Discount rates Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 23© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N The evaluation process (1) • Identify all the potential combinations of – cut-off grade / ultimate pits – mining methods – production rates – expansion capex projects – etc etc • Design and schedule the mine, for each combination • Calculate the financial etc effects of each scenario • Identify the scenario that gives the best result Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 24© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 13 A U S T R A L I A N The evaluation process (2) • This process is simple in concept, but daunting in the amount of work apparently required However . . . • By astute selection of representative options, the amount of design work can be reduced to manageable proportions, and other scenarios interpolated • Evaluation models can be constructed in such a way as to evaluate all the realistic options in a reasonable time frame Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 25© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N When should optimisation studies be done? • Every few years, especially if: – Economic conditions and / or predictions have changed significantly – Knowledge of the resource has changed significantly – The previous plan is becoming obsolete • As an integral and essential part of the prefeasibility study Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 26© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 14 A U S T R A L I A N Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 27 Typical Timing of Project Stages Construction Detailed Design Final Feasibility Prefeasibility Scoping 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Time to Commissioning En gi ne er in g Ef fo rt C om pl et ed Engineering Effort A U S T R A L I A N Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 28 Ability to Influence Project Value Construction Detailed Design Final Feasibility Prefeasibility Scoping 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Time to Commissioning En gi ne er in g Ef fo rt C om pl et ed Engineering Effort Ability to Influence Value 15 A U S T R A L I A N Feasibility study sponsors often specify a single cut-off grade to be used for all analyses • To save TIME • To save MONEY • But this can lead to sub-optimal investment decisions! • What has been shown to be FEASIBLE may still be a long way from OPTIMAL • Post-feasibility “optimisation” studies typically seek ways to improve the implementation of the identified strategy. They rarely look for better strategies! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 29© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N It’s easy to select an option with a single cut-off! Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Strategy B Strategy A Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 30© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 16 A U S T R A L I A N . . and there may be some upside with Strategy A Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Strategy A “Upside” Strategy B Strategy A Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 31© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N But upside available with Strategy B is lost! Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Strategy A Strategy B Strategy A “Upside” Strategy B “Upside” foregone, through failure to do a full investigation Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct2014 32© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 17 A U S T R A L I A N What’s the real danger? • Reported reserves derived at a low cut-off become “locked in” • Even if a change from one strategy to another is later shown to be technically feasible and financially preferable, it may be politically impossible • Significant shareholder value is irretrievably lost because of “cost savings” at the start of the project Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 33© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Knowing just the optimum points for each scenario may also be of limited value Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Scenario A e.g. Base Case Price Forecast Scenario B e.g. Optimistic Price Forecast Optimum policies identified by e.g. a Lane-style analysis Which option should be selected? Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 34© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 18 A U S T R A L I A N Knowing the full curves for various scenarios can be a powerful risk management tool ! Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Scenario A Scenario B Setting up for Scenario A guarantees this range of values The real benefit of setting up for Scenario B may be small… … but setting up for Scenario B may have significant downside risk if Scenario A then occurs Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 35© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N History indicates major strategies are often founded on wrong assumptions! • What price scenario should we plan for, if the “best” predictions are consistently wrong?! Nickel Prices – Actual and Consensus Predictions Source – JB Were – 4th Australian Resources Conference - 1998 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 36© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 19 A U S T R A L I A N If we typically set cut-offs below optimum, using optimistic price assumptions . . . Cutoff Grade Va lu e o f th e O pe ra tio n Actual (Lower) Prices Predicted Prices . . . should we be surprised that actual returns are often below expectations?! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 37© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Optimisation curves as a Risk Management tool • The trade-offs between risk and reward will depend on the shapes of the curves • Making decisions about these trade-offs is not the role of junior analysts and technical staff! • Assessing the impact of cut-off grade can only be made with full knowledge of the company’s risk profile • Selecting the cut-off policy is a major corporate strategic decision, and can only be properly made by (or at least under the fully informed direction of) senior executives! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 38© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 20 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 39© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections (1) • If costs go down or the metal price rises, the cut-off should go down proportionately – If the cut-off is a break-even, TRUE – If the cut-off is optimal, FALSE • The proportional change in an optimum cut-off will typically be less than the proportional change in costs or price • If the cut-off is balancing the capacities of stages of the production process, the cut-off will not change at all • It is also possible for a cost reduction or a price rise to cause the optimum cut-off to rise! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 40© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 21 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections (2) • Value is maximised by producing until Marginal Cost equals Marginal Revenue – In a factory, with unlimited resources and markets, YES • Successive time periods are essentially independent – In a mine, with depleting resources, NO • Choices made in one time period affect reserves, and hence strategies, in later periods • But maybe “TRUE” if Marginal Cost fully accounts for downstream effects as well as immediate direct costs (as in a Lane-style analysis) – Value may be maximised by operating various parts of the process simultaneously at full capacity. The cut-off that results in this is defined by plant capacities and grade distribution, and is NOT affected by price and cost Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 41© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections (3) • A costly detailed study is not required – the best strategy can be identified by simple studies and intuition – Intuition (if it exists) has been developed from past practices & experience, which are suboptimal – Intuition (if it exists) is therefore unreliable Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 42© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 22 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections (4) • Reducing mine life reduces the probability of exploration making a discovery that could profitably extend the life – The existing mine plan implicitly has an exploration program designed to test all targets before current reserves and resources are depleted Accelerate or slow down that program to fit within the mine life required for any cut-off and production rate policy, and include these effects in the optimisation analysis Same probability of discovery then implicit in all options – For “regular annual expenditure” programmes: Recognise the loss of value from a suboptimal production strategy as a real cost of the exploration programme, in addition to its direct drilling etc costs Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 43© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Answering Misconceptions & Objections (5) • The market will react adversely if a reduced reserve is reported – May depend on the strength of the company – If this is really true • Educate senior executives?? • Educate a few key opinion-forming industry analysts?? Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 44© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 23 A U S T R A L I A N Example Case Studies All NPVs indexed to the NPV before the optimisation study, which is given a value of 100 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 45© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Case Study 1 – U/g Gold – COG Optimisation – Mine-wide & by Area 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Cutoff [Au g/t] N PV In de x Potential Value Loss Potential Value Gains 25%-30% GA-optimised Mining Area Cut-offs Constant Mine-wide Cut-off HoV Curve Original Cut-off Breakeven Grade Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 46© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 24 A U S T R A L I A N Optimised Mining Block Cut-off Grades • Identified by use of a Genetic Algorithm, aiming to maximise NPV – A GA is a heuristic technique for getting close to an optimal answer when there are no analytical methods available, and an exhaustive search of all options is an impractically large problem 2 g/t Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 47 3 g/t 4 g/t 5 g/t 6 g/t © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N Case Study 2 – U/g Gold – COG & Production Rate Optimisation 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.501.75 2.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 N PV In de x Cut-off [Au g/t] Prod'n Target [Mtpa] 160-180 140-160 120-140 100-120 80-100 60-80 40-60 20-40 0-20 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 48© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 25 A U S T R A L I A N Case Study 3 – U/g Polymetallic Base Metals – Grade Descriptor, Mining Method & Cutoff Changing grade descriptor changed understanding of spatial distribution of value, leading to a changed mining method 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Cutoff Grade (old grade descriptor values scaled to be numerically similar to new grade descriptor values) N PV In de x Old Grade Descriptor, Old Mining Method New Grade Descriptor, New Mining Method Value Gain > 40% Other gains from increasing stocks of developed ore to allow mine to produce consistently at mill capacity Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 49© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N If “True” and “Calculated” Values are different, ore and waste are misclassified Tr ue V al ue Calculated Value Correctly classed as Waste Correctly classed as Ore Incorrectly classed as Waste - LOST Incorrectly classed as Ore - DEGRADATION (Diagrammatic only) “Calculated” values from block model grades. The spread of “True” values is IN ADDITION to estimation errors! Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 50© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 26 A U S T R A L I A N Case Study – A wide spread of values . . . Metal Equivalents O re V al ue [ $ / t on ne ] Equivalence Formula 1 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 51© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 Note: One increment on Value axis = ~50% of unit cost of mining A U S T R A L I A N . . . was reduced with a better equivalence formula Metal Equivalents O re V al ue [ $ / t on ne ] Equivalence Formula 1 Equivalence Formula 2 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 52© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 Note: One increment on Value axis = ~50% of unit cost of mining 27 A U S T R A L I A N Misclassified material can significantly affect the reserve used: Which descriptor is best? Reserve Tonnage A ve ra ge V al ue [$ / to nn e] Equivalence Formula 2 Equivalence Formula 1 Upgrade of Reserve through better grade description and reduced misclassification Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 53© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N The need for a rigorous approach • Resource geologists invest a lot of time, effort and money attempting to reduce estimation errors • Inappropriate equivalent value calculations can undo all that work • But there is typically very little science put into the derivation of the equivalent value formulas Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 54 28 A U S T R A L I A N 100 104 110 118 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Original Wet & Dry Plant Capacities, Mining Sequence & Reserves Original Wet & Dry Plant Capacities & Mining Sequence, Best Value "Standalone" Reserves Original Wet & Dry Plant Capacities, GA-Optimised Mining Sequence, Allocation of Concentrators & Deposit Reserves GA-Optimised Wet & Dry Plant Capacities, Mining Sequence, Allocation of Concentrators & Deposit Reserves NPV Index ==>> Case Study 4 – Mineral Sands – Multi-deposit – Sequencing, Selectivity, & Plant Capacity Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 55© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 A U S T R A L I A N But there’s more . . . Published by The AusIMM Available late November 2014 Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 © AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014 56 29 A U S T R A L I A N The End Mine Strategy Optimisation - UQ - Oct 2014 57© AMC Consultants Pty Ltd 2001 - 2014
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