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International Macroeconomics Belgium Belgium Target Function : - 0.124 Belgium PARAMETERS Factor Y1 Y2 ∆ GDP -0.327 -0.264 +0.063 Trade Balance -0.152 -0.412 -0.260 Unemployment +0.045 +0.114 +0.069 Government Balance +0.045 +0.114 -0.312 Prices Rates -0.078 -0.096 -0.018 Strategy Increase governments expenditures to improve GDP multiplier. Reduce unemployment by public jobs Increase salaries to lead a increase in income population and consumption Subsidies for population and companies. Belgium High importations which led to a worse trade balance and unemployment. However, GDP increased. What should have happened What happened in fact Aims Improvement in our Target Function GDP improvement Increase Employment rate Iimprovement in domestic market Consequences expected Government Deficit and Inflation Belgium Germany Target function and parameters Intention Expansionary policies GDP Growth Unemployment decrease Observed Impact Growth in trade deficit (Mostly due to decreased Exports and increase in Imports) GDP is still negative ( Due to external shocks effects) Decrease of Price rates Unemployment rate increased (Due to external shock effects, domestic policy was not effective) Increase in Corporate Investment due to shock effects (Central bank decreased interest rates) The policy’s intended and observed impact UK YEAR 1 YEAR 2 TARGETFUNCTION -0.064 -0.038 GDP -0.114 0.030 UNEMPLOYMENT 0.014 0.004 TRADEBALANCE -0.080 -0.114 GOVERNMENTBALANCE -0.049 -0.213 DOMESTIC PRICES 0.087 0.061 Country’s target function and parameter Country’s target function and parameter All the aspects worked out the way we intended, but public deficit increased and trade balance decreased Increase the government expends Lower tax rates* Decrease interest rates* Because of the recession household spending is down and Investment is going down, so the only two yet available to increase domestic demand is G that is easily controlled by the people in the government. Increase the public sector salaries The Gap between policy’s intended effect and observed impact France Target function began at a value of -0.024. Our policies were able to increase this function to 0.031. Factor Year 1 Year 2 ?? % ?? Target function -0.024 0.031 0.055 2.3 Consumption 0.002 0.025 0.023 11.5 Investment -0.089 1.690 1.779 0.199 Gov’t spending -0.130 -0.394 -0.264 -2 Trade balance -0.082 -0.204 -0.122 -1.5 France Result: Corporate investment strategies succeeded in stimulating investment. Household consumption improved. Government spending rose. Most unexpected? Trade deficit deepened as exports fell and imports rose. Economic Aims vs. Actual Effects Intent: Create a cycle of spending in order to positively affect GDP. Make goods more internationally competitive by altering real exchange rate via VAT tax and corporate tax rate adjustments. Improve market sentiment and stimulate investment. Italy Year1 Year2 Targetfunction: Shockeffects Domesticpoliciesonly Othercountrypolicies Total 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.014 0.051 0.025 0.005 0.082 Corporateinvestments(in %) 0.095 0.659 GDPgrowthrate -0.179 0.108 Governmentspendings 0.320 0.952 Prices(CPI) -0.225 -0.456 Trade balance -0.020 -0.053 Unemploymentrate 0.027 0.060 Value of the country’s target function Reduce the corporate profit taxe rate to boost the investments made by companies Reduce household income taxes to rise global consumption Reduce the household social benefits to limit the government spendings Our goals Year1 Year2 Householdconsumption(in %) 0.008 0.011 Domesticdemand(in %) -0.046 0.139 Corporateinvestments(in %) 0.095 0.659 Governmentspendings 0.320 0.952 Why household comsuption has grown? It’s due to the low inflation rate but the growth is not so important thanks to the fall of the salaries. Why the corporate investments has grown? Why the government spendings has fallen down? Results of our policies Japan Recessive policy -> Private sector uses its money to save instead of spending it Unemployment -> 5.3% Negative Government balance -> Taxes cant cover government expenses GDP Growth rate -> 7,5% Situation Private sector employment -> +2% (decrease unemployment) Employment social contribution rate(wage) -> -2% (stimulate employment) Corporate subsidy rate -> +3% (stimulate employment) Household income tax rate -> +3% (decrease government debt) Public/private Relative Wage -> -3% (stimulate employment) Changes
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