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Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco e Retorno Prof. Dr. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Dominância e Aversão ao Risco 1 O Ativo A domina o B se: A possui mesmo risco de B e retorno esperado maior ou A possui mesmo retorno esperado e risco menor ou A possui retorno esperado maior e risco menor Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco Salário Esperado Dominância e Aversão ao Risco 1 Emprego A: Salário de $50,000. Emprego B: chance de 50% de salário de $40,000. chance de 50% de salário de $60,000. Qual emprego você escolheria ? $50,000. A B Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco Salário Esperado Dominância e Aversão ao Risco 2 Emprego A: Salário de $50,000. Emprego B: chance de 30% de salário de $40,000. chance de 70% de salário de $60,000. Qual emprego você escolheria ? $50,000. A B Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco Retorno Esperado Relação Risco x Retorno Y X Conceito de Dominância B W H Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Determinar o retorno diário esperado para para uma carteira composto por 40% de Vale, 30% de Gerdau e 30% de Cosan utilizando dois métodos: A partir dos retornos históricos diários da carteira A partir da fórmula da esperança matemática dos retornos individuais Exercício a) Veja resolução do Professor b) Resposta: 0,4*0,7032 + 0,3*0,6348 - 0,3*0,0532=0,4558% Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Um dos conceitos de risco é o desvio padrão dos retornos do ativo. Risco Total Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Determinar o risco para cada um dos ativos considerados no slide 6: Exercício Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Determinar o risco para para uma carteira composta por 40% de Vale, 30% de Gerdau e 30% de Cosan. Exercício Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Observe o seguinte: Efeito das ___________ (1) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Plan1 Período PETR4 GGBR4 Vale3 BBDC4 Natu3 Itau4 GOLL4 CSAN3 NETC4 SBSP3 IBOV (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) Pontos 2/16/07 44.33 38.82 75.3 83.61 27.73 76.8 65.8 40.7 26.8 300.05 45,849.03 2/15/07 44.24 39.1 75.65 84.75 27.7 77.6 67.41 41.37 27.21 299 45,955.07 2/14/07 44.75 38.6 75.1 86.64 28 78.15 66.42 42.95 27 301.75 45,995.60 2/13/07 45.06 38.19 73.1 84.17 27.5 76.4 66.32 41.9 27 299.5 45,197.45 2/12/07 44.25 36 69.65 83.09 26.87 76.5 64.27 40.01 26.89 290.96 43,934.75 2/9/07 44.8 36.2 70 85.5 26.5 77.35 63.82 39.39 26.56 289.7 44,284.40 2/8/07 45.6 37 71.18 87.6 26.64 79.25 64.57 37.59 27.3 293 44,891.94 2/7/07 44.91 36.81 70.8 87.56 26.2 78.71 63.6 37.2 27.8 293 44,587.96 2/6/07 46.26 38.25 72.6 86.45 27.49 78.75 63.91 39.7 27.15 296.5 45,351.80 2/5/07 47 36.8 70.85 86.53 27.87 79.24 63.52 41.15 27.09 297.8 45,286.17 Carteira 2/16/07 0.2034% -0.7161% -0.4627% -1.3451% 0.1083% -1.0309% -2.3884% -1.6195% -1.5068% 0.3512% -0.2307% -0.8858% 2/15/07 -1.1397% 1.2953% 0.7324% -2.1814% -1.0714% -0.7038% 1.4905% -3.6787% 0.7778% -0.9114% -0.0881% -0.4221% 2/14/07 -0.6880% 1.0736% 2.7360% 2.9345% 1.8182% 2.2906% 0.1508% 2.5060% 0.0000% 0.7513% 1.7659% 2.1683% 2/13/07 1.8305% 6.0833% 4.9533% 1.2998% 2.3446% -0.1307% 3.1897% 4.7238% 0.4091% 2.9351% 2.8740% 5.2235% 2/12/07 -1.2277% -0.5525% -0.5000% -2.8187% 1.3962% -1.0989% 0.7051% 1.5740% 1.2425% 0.4349% -0.7896% 0.1065% 2/9/07 -1.7544% -2.1622% -1.6578% -2.3973% -0.5255% -2.3975% -1.1615% 4.7885% -2.7106% -1.1263% -1.3533% 0.1248% 2/8/07 1.5364% 0.5162% 0.5367% 0.0457% 1.6794% 0.6861% 1.5252% 1.0484% -1.7986% 0.0000% 0.6818% 0.6841% 2/7/07 -2.9183% -3.7647% -2.4793% 1.2840% -4.6926% -0.0508% -0.4851% -6.2972% 2.3941% -1.1804% -1.6843% -4.0103% 2/6/07 -1.5745% 3.9402% 2.4700% -0.0925% -1.3635% -0.6184% 0.6140% -3.5237% 0.2215% -0.4365% 0.1449% 1.1130% PETR4 GGBR4 Vale3 BBDC4 Natu3 Itau4 GOLL4 CSAN3 NETC4 SBSP3 IBOV Retorno Esperado -0.6369% 0.6348% 0.7032% -0.3634% -0.0340% -0.3394% 0.4045% -0.0532% -0.1079% 0.0909% 0.1467% Risco 1.4702% 2.8219% 2.2075% 1.8569% 2.0784% 1.2291% 1.5433% 3.7014% 1.5219% 1.2065% 1.3753% 2.3308% Plan3 Carteira 1 Dia 1 Dia 2 Dia 3 Dia 4 Dia 5 Dia 6 Risco Retorno A 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0.5000% Retorno B 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 0.5000% Carteira 50%/50% 2.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0.5000% Carteira 1 Retorno A Retorno B Carteira 2 Dias 0 Dias 1 Dias 2 Dias 3 Dias 4 Dias 5 Risco Retorno C 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0.5000% Retorno D 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 0.5000% Carteira 50%/50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 0.0000% Carteira 2 Retorno C Retorno D Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Efeito das ___________ (2) Observe o seguinte: Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Plan1 Período PETR4 GGBR4 Vale3 BBDC4 Natu3 Itau4 GOLL4 CSAN3 NETC4 SBSP3 IBOV (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) (R$) Pontos 2/16/07 44.33 38.82 75.3 83.61 27.73 76.8 65.8 40.7 26.8 300.05 45,849.03 2/15/07 44.24 39.1 75.65 84.75 27.7 77.6 67.41 41.37 27.21 299 45,955.07 2/14/07 44.75 38.6 75.1 86.64 28 78.15 66.42 42.95 27 301.75 45,995.60 2/13/07 45.06 38.19 73.1 84.17 27.5 76.4 66.32 41.9 27 299.5 45,197.45 2/12/07 44.25 36 69.65 83.09 26.87 76.5 64.27 40.01 26.89 290.96 43,934.75 2/9/07 44.8 36.2 70 85.5 26.5 77.35 63.82 39.39 26.56 289.7 44,284.40 2/8/07 45.6 37 71.18 87.6 26.64 79.25 64.57 37.59 27.3 293 44,891.94 2/7/07 44.91 36.81 70.8 87.56 26.2 78.71 63.6 37.2 27.8 293 44,587.96 2/6/07 46.26 38.25 72.6 86.45 27.49 78.75 63.91 39.7 27.15 296.5 45,351.80 2/5/07 47 36.8 70.85 86.53 27.87 79.24 63.52 41.15 27.09 297.8 45,286.17 Carteira 2/16/07 0.2034% -0.7161% -0.4627% -1.3451% 0.1083% -1.0309% -2.3884% -1.6195% -1.5068% 0.3512% -0.2307% -0.8858% 2/15/07 -1.1397% 1.2953% 0.7324% -2.1814% -1.0714% -0.7038% 1.4905% -3.6787% 0.7778% -0.9114% -0.0881% -0.4221% 2/14/07 -0.6880% 1.0736% 2.7360% 2.9345% 1.8182% 2.2906% 0.1508% 2.5060% 0.0000% 0.7513% 1.7659% 2.1683% 2/13/07 1.8305% 6.0833% 4.9533% 1.2998% 2.3446% -0.1307% 3.1897% 4.7238% 0.4091% 2.9351% 2.8740% 5.2235% 2/12/07 -1.2277% -0.5525% -0.5000% -2.8187% 1.3962% -1.0989% 0.7051% 1.5740% 1.2425% 0.4349% -0.7896% 0.1065% 2/9/07 -1.7544% -2.1622% -1.6578% -2.3973% -0.5255% -2.3975% -1.1615% 4.7885% -2.7106% -1.1263% -1.3533% 0.1248% 2/8/07 1.5364% 0.5162% 0.5367% 0.0457% 1.6794% 0.6861% 1.5252% 1.0484% -1.7986% 0.0000% 0.6818% 0.6841% 2/7/07 -2.9183% -3.7647% -2.4793% 1.2840% -4.6926% -0.0508% -0.4851% -6.2972% 2.3941% -1.1804% -1.6843% -4.0103% 2/6/07 -1.5745% 3.9402% 2.4700% -0.0925% -1.3635% -0.6184% 0.6140% -3.5237% 0.2215% -0.4365% 0.1449% 1.1130% PETR4 GGBR4 Vale3 BBDC4 Natu3 Itau4 GOLL4 CSAN3 NETC4 SBSP3 IBOV Retorno Esperado -0.6369% 0.6348% 0.7032% -0.3634% -0.0340% -0.3394% 0.4045% -0.0532% -0.1079% 0.0909% 0.1467% Risco 1.4702% 2.8219% 2.2075% 1.8569% 2.0784% 1.2291% 1.5433% 3.7014% 1.5219% 1.2065% 1.3753% 2.3308% Plan3 Carteira 1 Dias 0 Dias 1 Dias 2 Dias 3 Dias 4 Dias 5 Risco Retorno A 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0.5000% Retorno B 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 0.5000% Carteira 50%/50% 2.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.50% 2.50% 3.50% 0.5000% Carteira 1 Retorno A Retorno B Carteira 2 Dia 1 Dia 2 Dia 3 Dia 4 Dia 5 Dia 6 Risco Retorno C 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.00% 0.5000% Retorno D 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.00% 2.00% 0.5000% Carteira 50%/50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 0.0000% Carteira 2 Retorno C Retorno D Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco de uma carteira composta por 2 ativos q Utilizando os retornos históricos, calcule o risco de uma carteira com 30% de Vale e o restante de Gerdau. Compare o resultado obtido empregando a fórmula acima. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Retorno Risco Retorno Risco Retorno Risco Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Retorno Risco Gráfico Risco x Retorno: 2 ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Risco para n Ativos Fórmula do Risco de uma carteira para 3 Ativos: Fórmula do Risco de uma carteira para n Ativos: Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Considerando os dados da tabela abaixo, calcule o risco e o retorno para uma carteira composta por 70% do ativo A, 30% do ativo B e (0%) do ativo C. Correlação entre ativos A e B = +0,3 Correlação entre ativos A e C = +0,1 Correlação entre ativos B e C = -0,2 Exercício Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Considerando os dados da tabela abaixo, calcule o risco e o retorno para uma carteira composta por 50% do ativo A, 30% do ativo B e (20%) do ativo C. Correlação entre ativos A e B = +0,3 Correlação entre ativos A e C = +0,1 Correlação entre ativos B e C = -0,2 Exercício Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Gráfico Risco x Retorno para n Ativos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Variância da Carteira Número de Ativos Carteira de N ativos, todos com mesmo peso na carteira, todos os ativos possuem mesmo risco s e a covariância entre todos é igual a cov. Observações Pertinentes Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Observações Pertinentes Mesmo que se tenha uma carteira com todos os ativos do mercado, esta carteira terá risco. Em outras palavras, existe uma componente de risco que não pode ser eliminada. Sob o aspecto prático, são necessários ______ ativos para se ter uma carteira suficientemente diversificada. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * O CAPM Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * O CAPM é um modelo de fator único significando que o retorno do ativo pode ser explicado pelo retorno da Carteira de Mercado; A Carteira de Mercado é uma combinação de todos os ativos com risco existentes, em proporções correspondentes aos seus valores de mercado. CAPM Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Comparando um Ativo com a Carteira de Mercado Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Comparando um Ativo com a Carteira de Mercado (cont) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Comparando um Ativo com a Carteira de Mercado (cont) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Obtendo o Beta Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Obtendo o Beta Perceba que a inclinação da Linha Característica do Título é o Beta. Quanto mais inclinada for a Linha, mais sensível (arriscado) será o título em questão face às oscilações do Mercado. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * O Beta (cont) Você se recorda que Risco Total de um Título Individual = Risco Sistemático (Não Diversificável ou Risco Conjuntural) + Risco Não Sistemático (Diversificável). Pois bem, o Beta é uma medida do risco Sistemático do Ativo em questão. Perceba que a influência do risco sistemático sobre a ação é o coeficiente Beta. Em outras palavras, o coeficiente Beta nos diz a sensibilidade do retorno da ação a um risco sistemático. (Ross 242) Note que o Risco Sistemático (Ross 242) é qualquer risco que afeta um grande número de ativos, cada um com maior ou menor intensidade; O Risco Não Sistemático (Ross 242) é um risco que afeta especificamente um único ativo ou um pequeno número de ativos. Na avaliação do risco de uma carteira, o beta da carteira é a média ponderada de cada ativo contido na carteira. Segundo Ross (pg 228), as evidências empíricas mostram que praticamente não existem ações com betas negativos. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * O CAPM O retorno requerido para um título deriva do seu risco de mercado. O risco diversificável não afeta o retorno esperado de um título; Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * A Linha de Mercado de Títulos - SML RM Rlivre Security Market Line ou Linha do Mercado de Títulos Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Linha do Mercado de Capitais Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * A Empresa de Investimentos DeadChicken, com sede em Yolanda-PR, tem um capital total de R$ 500MM em 4 ações: A: R$ 200MM; B: R$ 150 MM C: R$ 50MM D: R$ 100MM Beta = 1 Beta = 2 Beta = 1,5 Beta = 0,7 A taxa livre de risco é de 9% ao ano enquanto os retornos esperados do mercado possui a seguinte distribuição de probabilidade: Probabilidade Retorno anual esperado para o mercado 10% 10% 35% 15% 25% 20% 20% 25% 10% 30% Exercício Esboce a SML. Qual é a equação da SML? Qual é a taxa de retorno exigida pelo fundo para o próximo ano? Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Exercício D A B C Considerando as ações A, B, C e D, quais estão caras e quais estão baratas comparativamente aos seus respectivos preços justos? Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Exercício Ação σ β X 0,2 0,9 Y 0,3 0,8 Z 0,25 1,5 Seu objetivo é minimizar o risco do investimento. Então, você deve escolher o ativo: Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Exercício A Cano Certo SA, empresa com sede em Carapicuíba, acaba de fazer IPO levantando recursos para investimento. O último dividendo pago foi de R$ R$ 0,80 por ação, o beta da empresa é de 1,4, ifree de 10%, prêmio de mercado 3%. Determine o preço teórico da ação supondo que os dividendos fiquem estáveis. Supondo crescimento nos dividendos de 10% ao ano, determine o preço teórico da ação. Supondo crescimento nos dividendos de 30% ao ano nos próximos 3 anos e de 10% ao ano nos anos subsequentes, determine o preço teórico da ação. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Observações Pertinentes Surgem os conceitos de: Risco não Diversificável ou Risco de Mercado ou Risco Sistemático (Sistêmico); Risco Diversificável ou Risco Não Sistemático (Não sistêmico): Note que este tipo de risco pode ser eliminado numa carteira convenientemente diversificada. Risco Total de um Ativo s2 = Risco não Diversificável + Risco Diversificável; Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * O Índice de Sharpe Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Índice de Sharpe IS O IS evidencia o prêmio pago pelo risco assumido e o risco do investimento. O IS revela prêmio oferecido por um ativo para cada percentual de risco assumido. Quanto maior o IS, melhor. (cuidado com IS negativo) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Índice de Sharpe IS (cont) Exemplo 1: IS = 0,7: O ativo promete oferecer mais 0,7% de retorno para cada 1% adicional de risco incorrido; Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Índice de Sharpe IS (cont) Exemplo 2: Calcular IS de carteira composta por ativo sem risco com retorno esperado de 6% (peso 30%) e ativo com risco com retorno esperado de 14% e risco igual a 10% (desvio padrão). Fonte: Alexandre Assaf Neto. Mercado Financeiro. Editora Atlas. Pg. 311 Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Tracking Error No caso dos fundos passivos, a principal preocupação dos investidores é se o fundo está acompanhando bem o benchmark ou índice que ele se propõe a reproduzir. Um indicador de desempenho de fundos de investimentos passivos que mede como o fundo acompanha o índice é o Tracking Error. Fonte: Gyorgy Varga pg 16 Índice de Sharpe e outros Indicadores de Desempenho Aplicados a Fundos de Ações Brasileiros Observe que TE nada mais é que o desvio padrão dos retornos excedentes do ativo (fundo) em relação à referência. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * EQM – Erro Quadrático Médio Note que quanto menor o EQM, maior a similaridade entre o retorno do ativo e de seu benchmark. Naturalmente, quanto menor, melhor. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Exercício Calcule o EQM e o TE dos fundos A e B. Discuta os resultados. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Calcule o EQM e o TE dos fundos A e B. Discuta os resultados. Exercício Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Valor em Risco (VaR) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Value at Risk - VaR O VaR fornece como resposta uma estimativa da pior perda possível dentro de um intervalo de tempo e dado um intervalo de confiança, estando o mercado nas suas condições normais. JORION (1997: xiii), Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Value at Risk - VaR Exemplo 1: Um banco que afirme que o VaR de um dia de sua carteira de investimentos é de R$ 4.000.000,00 para um nível de confiança de 99% quer dizer que, sob condições normais de mercado, existe uma chance em 100 de incorrer uma perda superior a R$ 4.000.000,00 no prazo de um dia. JORION (1997: xiii), Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * VaR Paramétrico Exemplo 2: Um gerente administra uma carteira de investimentos composta por um ativo. O retorno deste ativo possui distribuição normal, a média dos retornos é igual a 10% ao ano e o desvio padrão dos retornos anuais é 30%. O valor do portfólio hoje é de $100 MM Adaptado de BENNINGA & WIENER (1998: 1) qual é a distribuição do valor do portfólio dentro de um ano? qual a probabilidade de se perder $30 MM ou mais dentro de um ano, isto é, qual é a probabilidade do valor final do portfólio ser igual ou inferior a $80 MM? com 99% de probabilidade, qual é a máxima perda dentro de um ano? Isto é, qual é o VaR a 99% considerando que o horizonte de tempo seja igual a um ano ? Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. * Exemplo 2: i) Dentro de um ano o valor esperado para o portfólio é de $ 110 MM com um desvio padrão de $ 30 MM. Estes dados conduzem à seguinte distribuição normal: VaR Paramétrico Adaptado de BENNINGA & WIENER (1998: 1) Rafael Paschoarelli Veiga Pg. Gráf1 0.0001477283 0.0001552809 0.0001631743 0.0001714214 0.0001800352 0.0001890294 0.0001984177 0.0002082146 0.0002184344 0.0002290922 0.0002402033 0.0002517834 0.0002638484 0.0002764147 0.0002894992 0.0003031188 0.0003172909 0.0003320335 0.0003473645 0.0003633025 0.0003798662 0.0003970748 0.0004149477 0.0004335046 0.0004527656 0.0004727511 0.0004934817 0.0005149782 0.0005372619 0.0005603542 0.0005842767 0.0006090513 0.0006347 0.0006612451 0.0006887092 0.0007171147 0.0007464843 0.000776841 0.0008082077 0.0008406073 0.000874063 0.0009085977 0.0009442346 0.0009809967 0.001018907 0.0010579884 0.0010982637 0.0011397555 0.0011824864 0.0012264786 0.0012717541 0.0013183347 0.0013662419 0.0014154967 0.0014661199 0.0015181318 0.0015715522 0.0016264006 0.0016826958 0.001740456 0.0017996989 0.0018604415 0.0019227001 0.0019864902 0.0020518267 0.0021187236 0.0021871938 0.0022572497 0.0023289025 0.0024021625 0.0024770388 0.0025535396 0.0026316719 0.0027114417 0.0027928534 0.0028759106 0.0029606154 0.0030469684 0.0031349692 0.0032246158 0.0033159046 0.0034088308 0.0035033879 0.0035995679 0.0036973612 0.0037967565 0.003897741 0.0040003 0.0041044174 0.0042100751 0.0043172532 0.0044259302 0.0045360827 0.0046476855 0.0047607115 0.0048751318 0.0049909155 0.00510803 0.0052264406 0.0053461109 0.0054670025 0.0055890751 0.0057122864 0.0058365924 0.0059619472 0.0060883028 0.0062156096 0.006343816 0.0064728685 0.006602712 0.0067332895 0.0068645423 0.0069964099 0.0071288301 0.0072617392 0.0073950718 0.0075287609 0.007662738 0.0077969332 0.007931275 0.0080656908 0.0082001065 0.0083344468 0.0084686352 0.0086025942 0.0087362451 0.0088695083 0.0090023034 0.0091345489 0.0092661629 0.0093970625 0.0095271645 0.0096563851 0.00978464 0.0099118447 0.0100379144 0.0101627642 0.0102863092 0.0104084644 0.0105291452 0.0106482669 0.0107657453 0.0108814968 0.0109954382 0.0111074868 0.0112175608 0.0113255791 0.0114314618 0.0115351298 0.011636505 0.0117355109 0.011832072 0.0119261143 0.0120175654 0.0121063544 0.0121924122 0.0122756713 0.0123560663 0.0124335336 0.0125080116 0.0125794409 0.0126477644 0.0127129272 0.0127748766 0.0128335625 0.0128889372 0.0129409557 0.0129895754 0.0130347565 0.0130764618 0.0131146572 0.013149311 0.0131803947 0.0132078825 0.0132317516 0.0132519822 0.0132685575 0.0132814638 0.0132906902 0.0132962292 0.013298076 0.0132962292 0.0132906902 0.0132814638 0.0132685575 0.0132519822 0.0132317516 0.0132078825 0.0131803947 0.013149311 0.0131146572 0.0130764618 0.0130347565 0.0129895754 0.0129409557 0.0128889372 0.0128335625 0.0127748766 0.0127129272 0.0126477644 0.0125794409 0.0125080116 0.0124335336 0.0123560663 0.0122756713 0.0121924122 0.0121063544 0.0120175654 0.0119261143 0.011832072 0.0117355109 0.011636505 0.0115351298 0.0114314618 0.0113255791 0.0112175608 0.0111074868 0.0109954382 0.0108814968 0.0107657453 0.0106482669 0.0105291452 0.0104084644 0.0102863092 0.0101627642 0.0100379144 0.0099118447 0.00978464 0.0096563851 0.0095271645 0.0093970625 0.0092661629 0.0091345489 0.0090023034 0.0088695083 0.0087362451 0.0086025942 0.0084686352 0.0083344468 0.0082001065 0.0080656908 0.007931275 0.0077969332 0.007662738 0.0075287609 0.0073950718 0.0072617392 0.0071288301 0.0069964099 0.0068645423 0.0067332895 0.006602712 0.0064728685 0.006343816 0.0062156096 0.0060883028 0.0059619472 0.0058365924 0.0057122864 0.0055890751 0.0054670025 0.0053461109 0.0052264406 0.00510803 0.0049909155 0.0048751318 0.0047607115 0.0046476855 0.0045360827 0.0044259302 0.0043172532 0.0042100751 0.0041044174 0.0040003 0.003897741 0.0037967565 0.0036973612 0.0035995679 0.0035033879 0.0034088308 0.0033159046 0.0032246158 0.0031349692 0.0030469684 0.0029606154 0.0028759106 0.0027928534 0.0027114417 0.0026316719 0.0025535396 0.0024770388 0.0024021625 0.0023289025 0.0022572497 0.0021871938 0.0021187236 0.0020518267 0.0019864902 0.0019227001 0.0018604415 0.0017996989 0.001740456 0.0016826958 0.0016264006 0.0015715522 0.0015181318 0.0014661199 0.0014154967 0.0013662419 0.0013183347 0.0012717541 0.0012264786 0.0011824864 0.0011397555 0.0010982637 0.0010579884 0.001018907 0.0009809967 0.0009442346 0.0009085977 0.000874063 0.0008406073 0.0008082077 0.000776841 0.0007464843 0.0007171147 0.0006887092 0.0006612451 0.0006347 0.0006090513 0.0005842767 0.0005603542 0.0005372619 0.0005149782 0.0004934817 0.0004727511 0.0004527656 0.0004335046 0.0004149477 0.0003970748 0.0003798662 0.0003633025 0.0003473645 0.0003320335 0.0003172909 0.0003031188 0.0002894992 0.0002764147 0.0002638484 0.0002517834 0.0002402033 0.0002290922 0.0002184344 0.0002082146 0.0001984177 0.0001890294 0.0001800352 0.0001714214 0.0001631743 0.0001552809 0.0001477283 0.000140504 0.0001335958 0.0001269921 0.0001206812 0.0001146521 0.000108894 0.0001033963 0.0000981489 0.0000931419 0.0000883659 0.0000838114 0.0000794696 0.0000753318 0.0000713896 0.0000676349 0.0000640599 0.000060657 0.000057419 0.0000543386 0.0000514093 0.0000486244 0.0000459775 0.0000434627 0.000041074 0.0000388058 0.0000366527 0.0000346094 0.0000326709 0.0000308325 0.0000290894 0.0000274373 0.0000258718 0.0000243888 0.0000229845 0.000021655 0.0000203967 0.0000192063 0.0000180802 0.0000170155 0.000016009 Valor em $MM Distribuição Normal : média $110 MM; desvio $30 MM Normal 0.0001477283 20 0.135% 0.939% -2.35 0.0001552809 20.5 0.143% 0.0001631743 21 0.151% 0.0001714214 21.5 0.159% 0.0001800352 22 0.168% 0.0001890294 22.5 0.177% 0.0001984177 23 0.187% 0.0002082146 23.5 0.197% 0.0002184344 24 0.207% 0.0002290922 24.5 0.219% 0.0002402033 25 0.230% 0.0002517834 25.5 0.243% 0.0002638484 26 0.256% 0.0002764147 26.5 0.269% 0.0002894992 27 0.283% 0.0003031188 27.5 0.298% 0.0003172909 28 0.313% 0.0003320335 28.5 0.330% 0.0003473645 29 0.347% 0.0003633025 29.5 0.364% 0.0003798662 30 0.383% 0.0003970748 30.5 0.402% 0.0004149477 31 0.423% 0.0004335046 31.5 0.444% 0.0004527656 32 0.466% 0.0004727511 32.5 0.489% 0.0004934817 33 0.513% 0.0005149782 33.5 0.539% 0.0005372619 34 0.565% 0.0005603542 34.5 0.592% 0.0005842767 35 0.621% 0.0006090513 35.5 0.651% 0.0006347 36 0.682% 0.0006612451 36.5 0.714% 0.0006887092 37 0.748% 0.0007171147 37.5 0.783% 0.0007464843 38 0.820% 0.000776841 38.5 0.858% 0.0008082077 39 0.897% 0.0008406073 39.5 0.939% 0.000874063 40 0.982% 0.0009085977 40.5 1.026% 0.0009442346 41 0.0009809967 41.5 0.001018907 42 0.0010579884 42.5 0.0010982637 43 0.0011397555 43.5 0.0011824864 44 0.0012264786 44.5 0.0012717541 45 0.0013183347 45.5 0.0013662419 46 0.0014154967 46.5 0.0014661199 47 0.0015181318 47.5 0.0015715522 48 0.0016264006 48.5 0.0016826958 49 0.001740456 49.5 0.0017996989 50 0.0018604415 50.5 0.0019227001 51 0.0019864902 51.5 0.0020518267 52 0.0021187236 52.5 0.0021871938 53 0.0022572497 53.5 0.0023289025 54 0.0024021625 54.5 0.0024770388 55 0.0025535396 55.5 0.0026316719 56 0.0027114417 56.5 0.0027928534 57 0.0028759106 57.5 0.0029606154 58 0.0030469684 58.5 0.0031349692 59 0.0032246158 59.5 0.0033159046 60 0.0034088308 60.5 0.0035033879 61 0.0035995679 61.5 0.0036973612 62 0.0037967565 62.5 0.003897741 63 0.0040003 63.5 0.0041044174 64 0.0042100751 64.5 0.0043172532 65 0.0044259302 65.5 0.0045360827 66 0.0046476855 66.5 0.0047607115 67 0.0048751318 67.5 0.0049909155 68 0.00510803 68.5 0.0052264406 69 0.0053461109 69.5 0.0054670025 70 0.0055890751 70.5 0.0057122864 71 0.0058365924 71.5 0.0059619472 72 0.0060883028 72.5 0.0062156096 73 0.006343816 73.5 0.0064728685 74 0.006602712 74.5 0.0067332895 75 0.0068645423 75.5 0.0069964099 76 0.0071288301 76.5 0.0072617392 77 0.0073950718 77.5 0.0075287609 78 0.007662738 78.5 0.0077969332 79 0.007931275 79.5 0.0080656908 80 0.0082001065 80.5 0.0083344468 81 0.0084686352 81.5 0.0086025942 82 0.0087362451 82.5 0.0088695083 83 0.0090023034 83.5 0.0091345489 84 0.0092661629 84.5 0.0093970625 85 0.0095271645 85.5 0.0096563851 86 0.00978464 86.5 0.0099118447 87 0.0100379144 87.5 0.0101627642 88 0.0102863092 88.5 0.0104084644 89 0.0105291452 89.5 0.0106482669 90 0.0107657453 90.5 0.0108814968 91 0.0109954382 91.5 0.0111074868 92 0.0112175608 92.5 0.0113255791 93 0.0114314618 93.5 0.0115351298 94 0.011636505 94.5 0.0117355109 95 0.011832072 95.5 0.0119261143 96 0.0120175654 96.5 0.0121063544 97 0.0121924122 97.5 0.0122756713 98 0.0123560663 98.5 0.0124335336 99 0.0125080116 99.5 0.0125794409 100 0.0126477644 100.5 0.0127129272 101 0.0127748766 101.5 0.0128335625 102 0.0128889372 102.5 0.0129409557 103 0.0129895754 103.5 0.0130347565 104 0.0130764618 104.5 0.0131146572 105 0.013149311 105.5 0.0131803947 106 0.0132078825 106.5 0.0132317516 107 0.0132519822 107.5 0.0132685575 108 0.0132814638 108.5 0.0132906902 109 0.0132962292 109.5 0.013298076 110 0.0132962292 110.5 0.0132906902 111 0.0132814638 111.5 0.0132685575 112 0.0132519822 112.5 0.0132317516 113 0.0132078825 113.5 0.0131803947 114 0.013149311 114.5 0.0131146572 115 0.0130764618 115.5 0.0130347565 116 0.0129895754 116.5 0.0129409557 117 0.0128889372 117.5 0.0128335625 118 0.0127748766 118.5 0.0127129272 119 0.0126477644 119.5 0.0125794409 120 0.0125080116 120.5 0.0124335336 121 0.0123560663 121.5 0.0122756713 122 0.0121924122 122.5 0.0121063544 123 0.0120175654 123.5 0.0119261143 124 0.011832072 124.5 0.0117355109 125 0.011636505 125.5 0.0115351298 126 0.0114314618 126.5 0.0113255791 127 0.0112175608 127.5 0.0111074868 128 0.0109954382 128.5 0.0108814968 129 0.0107657453 129.5 0.0106482669 130 0.0105291452 130.5 0.0104084644 131 0.0102863092 131.5 0.0101627642 132 0.0100379144 132.5 0.0099118447 133 0.00978464 133.5 0.0096563851 134 0.0095271645 134.5 0.0093970625 135 0.0092661629 135.5 0.0091345489 136 0.0090023034 136.5 0.0088695083 137 0.0087362451 137.5 0.0086025942 138 0.0084686352 138.5 0.0083344468 139 0.0082001065 139.5 0.0080656908 140 0.007931275 140.5 0.0077969332 141 0.007662738 141.5 0.0075287609 142 0.0073950718 142.5 0.0072617392 143 0.0071288301 143.5 0.0069964099 144 0.0068645423 144.5 0.0067332895 145 0.006602712 145.5 0.0064728685 146 0.006343816 146.5 0.0062156096 147 0.0060883028 147.5 0.0059619472 148 0.0058365924 148.5 0.0057122864 149 0.0055890751 149.5 0.0054670025 150 0.0053461109 150.5 0.0052264406 151 0.00510803 151.5 0.0049909155 152 0.0048751318 152.5 0.0047607115 153 0.0046476855 153.5 0.0045360827 154 0.0044259302 154.5 0.0043172532 155 0.0042100751 155.5 0.0041044174 156 0.0040003 156.5 0.003897741 157 0.0037967565 157.5 0.0036973612 158 0.0035995679 158.5 0.0035033879 159 0.0034088308 159.5 0.0033159046 160 0.0032246158 160.5 0.0031349692 161 0.0030469684 161.5 0.0029606154 162 0.0028759106 162.5 0.0027928534 163 0.0027114417 163.5 0.0026316719 164 0.0025535396 164.5 0.0024770388 165 0.0024021625 165.5 0.0023289025 166 0.0022572497 166.5 0.0021871938 167 0.0021187236 167.5 0.0020518267 168 0.0019864902 168.5 0.0019227001 169 0.0018604415 169.5 0.0017996989 170 0.001740456 170.5 0.0016826958 171 0.0016264006 171.5 0.0015715522 172 0.0015181318 172.5 0.0014661199 173 0.0014154967 173.5 0.0013662419 174 0.0013183347 174.5 0.0012717541 175 0.0012264786 175.5 0.0011824864 176 0.0011397555 176.5 0.0010982637 177 0.0010579884 177.5 0.001018907 178 0.0009809967 178.5 0.0009442346 179 0.0009085977 179.5 0.000874063 180 0.0008406073 180.5 0.0008082077 181 0.000776841 181.5 0.0007464843 182 0.0007171147 182.5 0.0006887092 183 0.0006612451 183.5 0.0006347 184 0.0006090513 184.5 0.0005842767 185 0.0005603542 185.5 0.0005372619 186 0.0005149782 186.5 0.0004934817 187 0.0004727511 187.5 0.0004527656 188 0.0004335046 188.5 0.0004149477 189 0.0003970748 189.5 0.0003798662 190 0.0003633025 190.5 0.0003473645 191 0.0003320335 191.5 0.0003172909 192 0.0003031188 192.5 0.0002894992 193 0.0002764147 193.5 0.0002638484 194 0.0002517834 194.5 0.0002402033 195 0.0002290922 195.5 0.0002184344 196 0.0002082146 196.5 0.0001984177 197 0.0001890294 197.5 0.0001800352 198 0.0001714214 198.5 0.0001631743 199 0.0001552809 199.5 0.0001477283 200 0.000140504 200.5 0.0001335958 201 0.0001269921 201.5 0.0001206812 202 0.0001146521 202.5 0.000108894 203 0.0001033963 203.5 0.0000981489 204 0.0000931419 204.5 0.0000883659 205 0.0000838114 205.5 0.0000794696 206 0.0000753318 206.5 0.0000713896 207 0.0000676349 207.5 0.0000640599 208 0.000060657 208.5 0.000057419 209 0.0000543386 209.5 0.0000514093 210 0.0000486244 210.5 0.0000459775 211 0.0000434627 211.5 0.000041074 212 0.0000388058 212.5 0.0000366527 213 0.0000346094 213.5 0.0000326709 214 0.0000308325 214.5 0.0000290894 215 0.0000274373 215.5 0.0000258718 216 0.0000243888 216.5 0.0000229845 217 0.000021655 217.5 0.0000203967 218 0.0000192063 218.5 0.0000180802 219 0.0000170155 219.5 0.000016009 220 Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Valor em $MM Distribuição Normal : média $110MM; desvio $30 MM ORTN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Valor em $MM Distribuição Normal : média $110 MM; desvio $30 MM Tail 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Distribuição Normal do Valor Futuro Esperado Tail na cox Data Valor da ORTN Juros 15/12/79 468.71 3.12 15/01/80 487.83 3.25 15/02/80 508.33 3.39 15/03/80 527.14 3.51 15/04/80 546.64 3.64 15/05/80 566.86 3.78 Total 20.70 TSF1 qsi 0.1 0.5 mi 4% 4% sigma 10% 10% x H para qsi = 0,1 H para qsi = 0,5 normal 0 4.50027251 4.770733182 3.682701403 0.0005 4.4652548747 4.7245861102 3.6900280505 0.001 4.4307073388 4.6793084945 3.6972768411 0.0015 4.3966219741 4.6348786718 3.7044472591 0.002 4.3629910118 4.5912756404 3.7115387936 0.0025 4.3298068382 4.5484790366 3.7185509387 0.003 4.2970619915 4.5064691117 3.7254831935 0.0035 4.2647491582 4.4652267103 3.7323350621 0.004 4.2328611698 4.4247332495 3.7391060537 0.0045 4.2013909994 4.3849706986 3.7457956829 0.005 4.1703317587 4.3459215599 3.7524034692 0.0055 4.1396766943 4.3075688503 3.7589289376 0.006 4.1094191856 4.2698960833 3.7653716183 0.0065 4.0795527408 4.2328872523 3.7717310472 0.007 4.0500709947 4.1965268136 3.7780067653 0.0075 4.0209677057 4.1607996713 3.7841983193 0.008 3.9922367528 4.1256911617 3.7903052615 0.0085 3.9638721334 4.0911870388 3.7963271497 0.009 3.93586796 4.0572734606 3.8022635475 0.0095 3.9082184583 4.0239369752 3.8081140241 0.01 3.8809179643 3.9911645081 3.8138781546 0.0105 3.8539609222 3.9589433497 3.8195555199 0.011 3.8273418817 3.9272611433 3.8251457066 0.0115 3.8010554957 3.8961058736 3.8306483076 0.012 3.7750965183 3.8654658555 3.8360629215 0.0125 3.7494598026 3.8353297233 3.8413891531 0.013 3.7241402983 3.8056864209 3.846626613 0.0135 3.6991330496 3.7765251912 3.8517749182 0.014 3.6744331935 3.747835567 3.8568336919 0.0145 3.6500359576 3.7196073617 3.8618025633 0.015 3.6259366579 3.6918306605 3.866681168 0.0155 3.6021306974 3.6644958115 3.8714691479 0.016 3.5786135639 3.6375934178 3.8761661513 0.0165 3.5553808285 3.6111143297 3.8807718326 0.017 3.5324281432 3.5850496365 3.8852858532 0.0175 3.50975124 3.5593906596 3.8897078804 0.018 3.4873459287 3.5341289451 3.8940375883 0.0185 3.4652080953 3.509256257 3.8982746577 0.019 3.4433337005 3.4847645706 3.9024187757 0.0195 3.4217187784 3.4606460662 3.9064696362 0.02 3.4003594343 3.4368931225 3.9104269398 0.0205 3.3792518438 3.4134983113 3.9142903936 0.021 3.3583922512 3.390454391 3.9180597118 0.0215 3.3377769678 3.3677543015 3.9217346151 0.022 3.3174023709 3.345391159 3.9253148312 0.0225 3.2972649022 3.3233582502 3.9288000945 0.023 3.2773610667 3.3016490277 3.9321901463 0.0235 3.2576874311 3.2802571052 3.935484735 0.024 3.2382406227 3.2591762524 3.9386836157 0.0245 3.2190173282 3.2384003912 3.9417865507 0.025 3.2000142924 3.2179235905 3.9447933091 0.0255 3.1812283171 3.1977400624 3.9477036672 0.026 3.1626562599 3.1778441583 3.9505174083 0.0265 3.1442950332 3.1582303645 3.9532343229 0.027 3.1261416027 3.1388932986 3.9558542084 0.0275 3.1081929869 3.1198277057 3.9583768694 0.028 3.0904462556 3.1010284552 3.9608021179 0.0285 3.0728985291 3.0824905366 3.9631297729 0.029 3.0555469771 3.0642090568 3.9653596605 0.0295 3.0383888177 3.0461792366 3.9674916142 0.03 3.0214213166 3.0283964076 3.9695254748 0.0305 3.004641786 3.0108560089 3.9714610902 0.031 2.9880475836 2.9935535847 3.9732983158 0.0315 2.971636112 2.9764847809 3.9750370141 0.032 2.9554048176 2.9596453425 3.9766770551 0.0325 2.9393511897 2.9430311113 3.9782183161 0.033 2.9234727599 2.9266380226 3.9796606816 0.0335 2.9077671011 2.9104621032 3.9810040438 0.034 2.8922318267 2.894499469 3.982248302 0.0345 2.8768645897 2.8787463221 3.9833933629 0.035 2.8616630825 2.8631989492 3.9844391409 0.0355 2.8466250353 2.8478537189 3.9853855576 0.036 2.831748216 2.8327070796 3.986232542 0.0365 2.8170304293 2.8177555576 3.9869800307 0.037 2.8024695158 2.8029957551 3.9876279676 0.0375 2.7880633517 2.7884243479 3.9881763042 0.038 2.7738098477 2.7740380837 3.9886249992 0.0385 2.7597069488 2.7598337805 3.9889740192 0.039 2.7457526333 2.7458083244 3.9892233379 0.0395 2.7319449121 2.7319586679 3.9893729365 0.04 2.7182818285 2.7182818285 3.989422804 0.0405 2.7047614572 2.7047748868 3.9893729365 0.041 2.6913819041 2.6914349851 3.9892233379 0.0415 2.6781413053 2.6782593257 3.9889740192 0.042 2.6650378266 2.6652451694 3.9886249992 0.0425 2.6520696634 2.652389834 3.9881763042 0.043 2.6392350396 2.6396906933 3.9876279676 0.0435 2.6265322072 2.6271451749 3.9869800307 0.044 2.6139594462 2.6147507598 3.986232542 0.0445 2.6015150635 2.6025049805 3.9853855576 0.045 2.5891973927 2.5904054198 3.9844391409 0.0455 2.5770047936 2.5784497098 3.9833933629 0.046 2.5649356518 2.5666355305 3.982248302 0.0465 2.552988378 2.5549606088 3.9810040438 0.047 2.5411614077 2.5434227171 3.9796606816 0.0475 2.5294532007 2.5320196728 3.9782183161 0.048 2.5178622407 2.5207493364 3.9766770551 0.0485 2.506387035 2.509609611 3.9750370141 0.049 2.4950261136 2.4985984414 3.9732983158 0.0495 2.4837780293 2.4877138128 3.9714610902 0.05 2.4726413573 2.4769537498 3.9695254748 0.0505 2.4616146943 2.4663163158 3.9674916142 0.051 2.4506966585 2.4557996119 3.9653596605 0.0515 2.4398858892 2.4454017761 3.9631297729 0.052 2.4291810464 2.4351209823 3.9608021179 0.0525 2.4185808104 2.4249554396 3.9583768694 0.053 2.4080838813 2.4149033915 3.9558542084 0.0535 2.3976889788 2.404963115 3.9532343229 0.054 2.3873948422 2.39513292 3.9505174083 0.0545 2.3772002292 2.3854111484 3.9477036672 0.055 2.3671039164 2.3757961734 3.9447933091 0.0555 2.3571046986 2.366286399 3.9417865507 0.056 2.3472013886 2.3568802588 3.9386836157 0.0565 2.3373928166 2.3475762161 3.935484735 0.057 2.3276778303 2.3383727624 3.9321901463 0.0575 2.3180552944 2.3292684175 3.9288000945 0.058 2.3085240904 2.3202617284 3.9253148312 0.0585 2.299083116 2.3113512687 3.9217346151 0.059 2.2897312853 2.3025356386 3.9180597118 0.0595 2.2804675281 2.2938134634 3.9142903936 0.06 2.2712907901 2.2851833938 3.9104269398 0.0605 2.2622000319 2.2766441047 3.9064696362 0.061 2.2531942297 2.2681942952 3.9024187757 0.0615 2.244272374 2.2598326877 3.8982746577 0.062 2.2354334702 2.2515580275 3.8940375883 0.0625 2.2266765381 2.2433690824 3.8897078804 0.063 2.2180006113 2.2352646422 3.8852858532 0.0635 2.2094047375 2.227243518 3.8807718326 0.064 2.2008879778 2.2193045423 3.8761661513 0.0645 2.192449407 2.2114465677 3.8714691479 0.065 2.1840881127 2.2036684673 3.866681168 0.0655 2.1758031958 2.1959691339 3.8618025633 0.066 2.1675937696 2.1883474794 3.8568336919 0.0665 2.1594589603 2.1808024349 3.8517749182 0.067 2.151397906 2.1733329497 3.846626613 0.0675 2.1434097572 2.1659379916 3.8413891531 0.068 2.1354936763 2.1586165459 3.8360629215 0.0685 2.1276488373 2.1513676152 3.8306483076 0.069 2.1198744258 2.1441902195 3.8251457066 0.0695 2.1121696388 2.1370833952 3.8195555199 0.07 2.1045336842 2.130046195 3.8138781546 0.0705 2.0969657812 2.1230776879 3.8081140241 0.071 2.0894651595 2.1161769584 3.8022635475 0.0715 2.0820310597 2.1093431063 3.7963271497 0.072 2.0746627326 2.1025752465 3.7903052615 0.0725 2.0673594395 2.0958725089 3.7841983193 0.073 2.0601204517 2.0892340376 3.7780067653 0.0735 2.0529450503 2.0826589909 3.7717310472 0.074 2.0458325264 2.0761465411 3.7653716183 0.0745 2.0387821808 2.0696958741 3.7589289376 0.075 2.0317933236 2.063306189 3.7524034692 0.0755 2.0248652742 2.0569766982 3.7457956829 0.076 2.0179973615 2.0507066268 3.7391060537 0.0765 2.0111889229 2.0444952125 3.7323350621 0.077 2.0044393053 2.0383417055 3.7254831935 0.0775 1.997747864 2.0322453677 3.7185509387 0.078 1.9911139629 2.0262054732 3.7115387936 0.0785 1.9845369745 2.0202213078 3.7044472591 0.079 1.9780162796 2.0142921683 3.6972768411 0.0795 1.9715512674 2.0084173631 3.6900280505 0.08 1.9651413348 2.0025962114 3.682701403 0.0805 1.958785887 1.9968280431 3.6752974192 0.081 1.9524843369 1.9911121988 3.6678166244 0.0815 1.9462361052 1.9854480294 3.6602595485 0.082 1.9400406202 1.979834896 3.6526267262 0.0825 1.9338973176 1.9742721696 3.6449186967 0.083 1.9278056404 1.968759231 3.6371360037 0.0835 1.9217650391 1.9632954707 3.6292791954 0.084 1.9157749712 1.9578802885 3.6213488241 0.0845 1.9098349012 1.9525130937 3.6133454469 0.085 1.9039443006 1.9471933042 3.6052696246 0.0855 1.8981026476 1.9419203474 3.5971219227 0.086 1.8923094274 1.9366936589 3.5889029103 0.0865 1.8865641315 1.9315126833 3.5806131611 0.087 1.8808662582 1.9263768735 3.5722532523 0.0875 1.8752153118 1.9212856905 3.5638237652 0.088 1.8696108035 1.9162386036 3.5553252851 0.0885 1.8640522502 1.9112350902 3.5467584008 0.089 1.8585391753 1.9062746352 3.538123705 0.0895 1.853071108 1.9013567315 3.529421794 0.09 1.8476475836 1.8964808793 3.5206532676 0.0905 1.8422681433 1.8916465865 3.5118187293 0.091 1.8369323338 1.886853368 3.5029187859 0.0915 1.8316397079 1.8821007461 3.4939540475 0.092 1.8263898236 1.87738825 3.4849251276 0.0925 1.8211822447 1.8727154158 3.4758326429 0.093 1.8160165404 1.8680817864 3.4666772134 0.0935 1.8108922852 1.8634869114 3.4574594619 0.094 1.8058090589 1.8589303469 3.4481800144 0.0945 1.8007664466 1.8544116555 3.4388394999 0.095 1.7957640382 1.849930406 3.4294385502 0.0955 1.7908014292 1.8454861735 3.4199777999 0.096 1.7858782197 1.8410785392 3.4104578863 0.0965 1.7809940147 1.8367070903 3.4008794495 0.097 1.7761484242 1.8323714198 3.391243132 0.0975 1.7713410629 1.8280711267 3.3815495791 0.098 1.7665715502 1.8238058154 3.3717994382 0.0985 1.7618395102 1.8195750962 3.3619933594 0.099 1.7571445715 1.8153785847 3.3521319949 0.0995 1.7524863671 1.811215902 3.3422159992 0.1 1.7478645347 1.8070866743 3.3322460289 0.1005 1.7432787161 1.8029905334 3.3222227429 0.101 1.7387285577 1.798927116 3.3121468019 0.1015 1.7342137098 1.7948960639 3.3020188686 0.102 1.7297338272 1.7908970237 3.2918396077 0.1025 1.7252885686 1.7869296473 3.2816096855 0.103 1.720877597 1.7829935909 3.2713297702 0.1035 1.7165005792 1.7790885158 3.2610005315 0.104 1.7121571861 1.7752140877 3.2506226408 0.1045 1.7078470924 1.7713699771 3.2401967711 0.105 1.7035699768 1.7675558589 3.2297235967 0.1055 1.6993255216 1.7637714122 3.2192037932 0.106 1.6951134131 1.7600163207 3.2086380377 0.1065 1.6909333409 1.7562902724 3.1980270084 0.107 1.6867849987 1.7525929593 3.1873713848 0.1075 1.6826680834 1.7489240777 3.1766718472 0.108 1.6785822956 1.7452833278 3.1659290771 0.1085 1.6745273395 1.7416704141 3.1551437571 0.109 1.6705029226 1.7380850448 3.1443165703 0.1095 1.6665087557 1.734526932 3.1334482009 0.11 1.6625445532 1.7309957916 3.1225393337 0.1105 1.6586100327 1.7274913434 3.1115906541 0.111 1.654704915 1.7240133107 3.1006028483 0.1115 1.650828924 1.7205614206 3.0895766028 0.112 1.6469817871 1.7171354037 3.0785126047 0.1125 1.6431632346 1.7137349941 3.0674115413 0.113 1.6393729998 1.7103599294 3.0562741003 0.1135 1.6356108194 1.7070099506 3.0451009697 0.114 1.6318764326 1.7036848021 3.0338928376 0.1145 1.628169582 1.7003842314 3.0226503921 0.115 1.6244900129 1.6971079896 3.0113743215 0.1155 1.6208374735 1.6938558308 3.0000653141 0.116 1.6172117149 1.6906275121 2.9887240578 0.1165 1.613612491 1.687422794 2.9773512405 0.117 1.6100395585 1.68424144 2.9659475499 0.1175 1.6064926766 1.6810832164 2.9545136734 0.118 1.6029716075 1.6779478926 2.9430502979 0.1185 1.5994761159 1.6748352409 2.9315581098 0.119 1.5960059691 1.6717450367 2.9200377953 0.1195 1.5925609372 1.6686770577 2.9084900396 0.12 1.5891407925 1.665631085 2.8969155276 0.1205 1.5857453101 1.6626069019 2.8853149433 0.121 1.5823742676 1.6596042948 2.8736889699 0.1215 1.5790274448 1.6566230525 2.86203829 0.122 1.5757046242 1.6536629667 2.8503635849 0.1225 1.5724055905 1.6507238313 2.8386655352 0.123 1.5691301309 1.6478054431 2.8269448205 0.1235 1.5658780348 1.6449076012 2.8152021192 0.124 1.5626490941 1.6420301072 2.8034381084 0.1245 1.5594431027 1.6391727652 2.7916534642 0.125 1.556259857 1.6363353817 2.7798488613 0.1255 1.5530991554 1.6335177655 2.7680249731 0.126 1.5499607986 1.6307197276 2.7561824715 0.1265 1.5468445895 1.6279410816 2.7443220271 0.127 1.5437503329 1.6251816431 2.7324443087 0.1275 1.5406778361 1.62244123 2.7205499838 0.128 1.537626908 1.6197196625 2.708639718 0.1285 1.5345973599 1.6170167627 2.6967141753 0.129 1.5315890049 1.6143323552 2.684774018 0.1295 1.5286016584 1.6116662663 2.6728199064 0.13 1.5256351374 1.6090183247 2.660852499 0.1305 1.5226892611 1.6063883609 2.6488724524 0.131 1.5197638505 1.6037762076 2.6368804211 0.1315 1.5168587285 1.6011816993 2.6248770577 0.132 1.51397372 1.5986046725 2.6128630125 0.1325 1.5111086516 1.5960449657 2.6008389337 0.133 1.5082633517 1.5935024194 2.5888054673 0.1335 1.5054376508 1.5909768756 2.576763257 0.134 1.5026313808 1.5884681784 2.5647129443 0.1345 1.4998443756 1.5859761739 2.552655168 0.135 1.4970764707 1.5835007095 2.5405905647 0.1355 1.4943275034 1.5810416348 2.5285197685 0.136 1.4915973127 1.5785988009 2.516443411 0.1365 1.4888857393 1.5761720608 2.504362121 0.137 1.4861926253 1.573761269 2.4922765248 0.1375 1.4835178149 1.5713662818 2.4801872461 0.138 1.4808611535 1.568986957 2.4680949057 0.1385 1.4782224882 1.5666231543 2.4560001216 0.139 1.4756016679 1.5642747348 2.4439035091 0.1395 1.4729985426 1.5619415611 2.4318056805 0.14 1.4704129643 1.5596234976 2.4197072452 0.1405 1.4678447862 1.55732041 2.4076088097 0.141 1.4652938632 1.5550321657 2.3955109773 0.1415 1.4627600516 1.5527586334 2.3834143484 0.142 1.4602432091 1.5504996834 2.3713195202 0.1425 1.4577431949 1.5482551876 2.3592270868 0.143 1.4552598696 1.546025019 2.347137639 0.1435 1.4527930954 1.5438090522 2.3350517644 0.144 1.4503427355 1.5416071633 2.3229700474 0.1445 1.4479086549 1.5394192295 2.310893069 0.145 1.4454907196 1.5372451297 2.2988214068 0.1455 1.4430887972 1.5350847438 2.2867556351 0.146 1.4407027566 1.5329379532 2.2746963246 0.1465 1.4383324679 1.5308046407 2.2626440426 0.147 1.4359778024 1.5286846901 2.2505993529 0.1475 1.433638633 1.5265779868 2.2385628156 0.148 1.4313148337 1.5244844172 2.2265349875 0.1485 1.4290062796 1.522403869 2.2145164215 0.149 1.4267128473 1.5203362313 2.2025076668 0.1495 1.4244344144 1.518281394 2.1905092692 0.15 1.4221708599 1.5162392487 2.1785217703 0.1505 1.4199220638 1.5142096878 2.1665457084 0.151 1.4176879074 1.5121926049 2.1545816177 0.1515 1.4154682732 1.5101878949 2.1426300286 0.152 1.4132630448 1.5081954538 2.1306914678 0.1525 1.4110721069 1.5062151785 2.1187664578 0.153 1.4088953453 1.5042469673 2.1068555174 0.1535 1.406732647 1.5022907193 2.0949591613 0.154 1.4045839 1.500346335 2.0830779005 0.1545 1.4024489937 1.4984137155 2.0712122415 0.155 1.400327818 1.4964927634 2.0593626872 0.1555 1.3982202644 1.4945833821 2.0475297361 0.156 1.3961262252 1.4926854761 2.0357138829 0.1565 1.3940455937 1.4907989507 2.0239156179 0.157 1.3919782644 1.4889237124 2.0121354274 0.1575 1.3899241326 1.4870596687 2.0003737934 0.158 1.3878830948 1.485206728 1.9886311939 0.1585 1.3858550484 1.4833647995 1.9769081025 0.159 1.3838398917 1.4815337937 1.9652049886 0.1595 1.3818375242 1.4797136216 1.9535223175 0.16 1.379847846 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