Resolução Previsão de demanda

Esta é uma pré-visualização de arquivo. Entre para ver o arquivo original

Dados
	Média Corrida
	Período	Demanda
	1	35.0
	2	49.0
	3	81.0
	4	43.0
	5	65.0
	6	88.0
	7	52.0
	8	71.0	Primeiro quadrimestre adiante
	9	100.0	t da regressão
	10	57.0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
	11	84.0	a	b	S(to)	R(to)	F1(to-P)	F2(to-P)	F3(to-P)	Sp(t)
	12	121.0	Estimativa média corrida	Erro	Erro absoluto	Erro quadrático	39.6	4.8	96.7	4.8	0.72	0.96	1.32	44.3	49.1	53.9	58.6	63.4	68.1	72.9	77.6	82.4	87.1	91.9	96.7
	13	80.0	73.3	-6.7	6.7	45.1	51.5	3.5	93.5	3.5	0.95	1.32	0.74	55.0	58.5	62.0	65.5	69.0	72.5	76.0	79.5	83.0	86.5	90.0	93.5
	14	102.3	91.9	-10.4	10.4	107.5	56.3	3.4	97.6	3.4	1.30	0.73	0.98	59.8	63.2	66.7	70.1	73.5	77.0	80.4	83.8	87.3	90.7	94.2	97.6
	15	145.9	131.0	-14.9	14.9	220.8	44.3	6.1	117.8	6.1	0.76	0.98	1.27	50.4	56.5	62.7	68.8	74.9	81.0	87.2	93.3	99.4	105.5	111.7	117.8
	16	83.6	93.6	10.0	10.0	100.1	59.9	4.2	110.8	4.2	0.97	1.29	0.74	64.2	68.4	72.6	76.9	81.1	85.4	89.6	93.8	98.1	102.3	106.6	110.8
	17	116.0	111.4	-4.6	4.6	21.0	63.7	4.3	115.5	4.3	1.30	0.74	0.97	68.0	72.3	76.6	80.9	85.3	89.6	93.9	98.2	102.5	106.8	111.2	115.5
	18	164.7	155.2	-9.5	9.5	89.6	52.9	7.0	136.4	7.0	0.76	0.96	1.28	59.9	66.8	73.8	80.7	87.7	94.6	101.6	108.6	115.5	122.5	129.4	136.4
	19	90.0	109.1	19.1	19.1	363.7	71.8	4.5	126.3	4.5	0.96	1.31	0.73	76.3	80.8	85.4	89.9	94.5	99.0	103.6	108.1	112.6	117.2	121.7	126.3
	20	134.0	125.7	-8.3	8.3	69.6	77.8	4.4	130.9	4.4	1.29	0.73	0.98	82.2	86.6	91.1	95.5	99.9	104.3	108.8	113.2	117.6	122.0	126.5	130.9
	21	190.0	175.0	-15.0	15.0	223.8	66.4	7.3	154.4	7.3	0.74	0.97	1.29	73.7	81.0	88.4	95.7	103.0	110.4	117.7	125.0	132.4	139.7	147.1	154.4
	22	100.0	119.8	19.8	19.8	393.4	90.3	4.2	140.7	4.2	0.96	1.31	0.73	94.5	98.7	102.9	107.1	111.3	115.5	119.7	123.9	128.1	132.3	136.5	140.7
	23	143.0	138.6	-4.4	4.4	19.2	98.8	3.7	142.6	3.7	1.30	0.72	0.98	102.5	106.1	109.8	113.4	117.1	120.7	124.4	128.0	131.7	135.3	139.0	142.6
	24	200.0	190.0	-10.0	10.0	99.9	86.5	6.6	165.2	6.6	0.73	0.97	1.30	93.0	99.6	106.2	112.7	119.3	125.8	132.4	139.0	145.5	152.1	158.6	165.2
	EM	EAM	EQM	TS
	Médias	-2.90	11.05	146.15	-3.15
	N	12
	Alfa	0.2	beta	0.2	gama	0.2
	Suavização exponencial
	Estimativa Exponencial	S(to)	R(to)	F1(to-P)	F2(to-P)	F3(to-P)	Erro	Erro absoluto	Erro quadrático
	12	96.7	4.8	0.72	0.96	1.32
	13	80.0	73.3	103.3	5.1	0.73	0.96	1.32	-6.7	6.7	45.1
	14	102.3	104.4	141.8
	15	145.9	0.0
	16	83.6	0.0
	17	116.0	0.0
	18	164.7	0.0
	19	90.0	0.0
	20	134.0	0.0
	21	190.0	0.0
	22	100.0	0.0
	23	143.0	0.0
	24	200.0	0.0
	S(t0) = a . V(t0) / Fp(t0-P) + (1 - a) . E(t0) / Fp(t0-P)
	 R(t0) = b . [S(t0) - S(t0-1)] + (1 - b) . R(t0-1) 
	 Fp(t0) = g . V(t0) / S(t0) + (1 - g) . Fp(t0-P)
	S(t0) = base atual; 
	R(t0) = tendência atual;
	Fp(t0) = fatores de sazonalidade correspondentes aos períodos do ciclo.
Gráf 1 a 12
Gráf 13 a 24
Plan2
Plan3