Baixe o app para aproveitar ainda mais
Prévia do material em texto
Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and Other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years On Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University, Fall 2015 Draws on Lo and Rogoff, BIS Annual Conference, 2014 Is Economic Growth Stagnating? • Growth has disappointed since the financial crisis • It has been a surprise to most. The US Federal Reserve, for example, has consistently and significantly overestimated growth for past six years • Decline is WORLDWIDE, Europe, China and of course Brazil…. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Advanced economy output and inflation trends 1990‐2013 Reinhart, Reinhart, and Rogoff 3 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Advanced economies: Components of nominal GDP moving average of three-year change, percent Potential output Real GDP Nominal GDP Inflation Rationales for slow post‐crisis growth • Long‐term trend drop in aggregate demand (Summers) • Slowing innovation (Gordon, Theil, Kasparov) • Demographics (CBO, Stock and Watson) • Policy Uncertainty (Baker‐Bloom‐Davis) • Policy Errors: Excessive Regulation and Austerity • Characteristic post‐financial crisis recovery (Reinhart‐Rogoff) Exhibit A for Secular Stagnation: low post‐crisis interest rates. But many theories of low real interest rates • Slowing population growth • Excess saving in fast‐growing emerging markets • Aging population in Germany and Japan, etc. • Changing correlation between bonds and equities • Liquidity • Fear of a new crisis (consistent with disconnect between stock and bond markets) • Financial repression (government restrictions on capital markets that help keep down interest rates on government debt.) Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 The March to Austerity: Select advanced economies: Government expenditure relative to nominal GDP, % Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2014 FOOTNOTE : Despite rising trend government spending, few economists really question the case for greater spending on genuinely productive infrastructure projects: low interest rates and high unemployment make a compelling case for infrastructure in both Keynesian and classical models… Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Gordon’s synthesis of why 250 years of growth is an aberration • No real innovation or growth until 1750 • The First Industrial Revolution (Steam engines, railroads) 1750‐1830 • The Second Industrial Revolution (electricity, internal combustion engine, running water, indoor toilets, communications, entertainment, chemicals, petroleum (1870‐1900) Later airplanes, container ships, air conditioning, interstate highways etc., are extensions of IR II. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Gordon‐Kasparov Theil continued • Third Industrial Revolution: Computers, cell phones, the internet, 1960s‐1990s Gordon‐ Theil Kasparov argue it much less impactful • Estimate that US will be lucky to get 1% per year productivity growth in the next century against headwinds of demographics, globalization, inequality, education, energy, debt deleveraging Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University BIG PICTURE: Improvements in Living Standards 1870‐2010 PERIOD PRODUCTIVITY (TFP) MAIN SOURCES OF GROWTH PER DECADE CHANGE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH 1870‐1900 ~1.5% to 2% Transportation, Communications 1.3 1900‐1920 ~1% Trade, Business Organization 3.2 1920s ~2% ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 5.6 1930s ~3% Electricity, internal combustion 3.2 1940s ~2.5% Telecommunications, chemicals 5.3 1950‐1973 ~2% Widespread gains…. 1.4 1973‐1990 < 1% 2.4 1990s > 1% Information technology 1.7 2000s ~ 1.5% Information technology 1.4 2010‐2040 ??? Artificial intelligence?? ?? Source: Congressional Budget Office 2013 Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Three keys to innovation (Mokyr) • New instruments play a key role in scientific discovery – Telescope and microscope are most famous but there are many others, e.g., Volta’s battery • Access to information – Expands number of people who can help invent and create • Institutions and incentives that allow ideas to develop – Chinese famously developed many inventions such as gunpowder, silk, paper, moveable type. – But institutions, especially lack of middle class entrepreneurs, did not foster development Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Institutions and Incentives are Critical (Economic Historian Joel Mokyr) • Access to education at all levels • Rule of law • Financial system to support innovation • Property rights (including stable tax system) • ENVIRONMENT FOR KNOWLEDGE ACCRUAL AND IMPLEMENTATION AT ALL TIME HIGH – Though economists Ned Phelps argues that monopolies hold back innovation…. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University Access to information has always been important • Internet and computing explosion has made sharing of information far easier than in the past • ….early encyclopedias helped foster industrial revolution Pinmaking Factory: Diderot’s 1751 Encyclopedia Courtesy of Joel Mokyr Are workers going to be replaced by robots?? Or perhaps Cyborgs Debt Overhang after Crisis • A number of studies suggest that after modest deleveraging of private sector balance sheets and heavy leveraging of public sector balance sheets, debt overhang is an issue • Buttiglione, Lane, Reichlin and V. Reinhart (2014) “Geneva Report” • IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2014 • Vicious circle between high debt and deleveraging in some countries? Debt/GDP by sector relative to 2008 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1916 1930 1944 1958 1972 1986 2000 2014 GSE Financial Corporate Household Public Reinhart, Reinhart and Rogoff (2014) based on Buttiglione, Lane, Reichlin and Reinhart (2014), US Debt by Sector as a Percent of GDP, 1916‐2014 Menu for reducing debt • Advanced economies in past have resorted to a heterodox array of methods for dealing with high debt – Default – Inflation – Financial Repression – Austerity • The idea that governments can simply live off negative r – g in a Ponzi scheme ignores risk management issues that past governments seem to weight heavily. – Option to issue mass quantities of debt a very important form of insurance in wars and financial crisis especially, eg Obstfeld on “Keeping one’s powder dry” How do governments respond to debt? • We run a Bohn‐inspired regression: That is, the reaction of the primary surplus to levels of debt, controlling for expenditure deviations and output deviations from trend. • For the long sample, the coefficient on debt is about 0.10, in line with Bohn’s and Mauro et al.’s estimates. Indicative that U.S. tends to be fiscally prudent. • Extensions include testing whether surplus reacts to levels of leverage or sector‐level debt; initial explorations suggest it does. Productivity Accounting • Fernald (2014 NBER Macro Annual) argues that productivity slowdown started before several years below 2000, and is long‐term TFP fall. • Hall (in same volume) attempts to decompose fall in output into various factors including lower TFP, low business investment, shortfall in aggregate demand. Conclusions • Still far too soon to make meaningful long‐ term assessment of how much growth has fallen and why, especially when high debt overhang remains in many sectors.
Compartilhar