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Rock Mechanics for Natural Resources and Infrastructure SBMR 2014 – ISRM Specialized Conference 09-13 September, Goiania, Brazil © CBMR/ABMS and ISRM, 2014 SBMR 2014 3D Geological Modeling of Subsurface for Drilling Purposes Using Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Alvaro Gustavo Talavera Lopez PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, alvaro@ele.puc-rio.br Vivian Rodrigues Marchesi PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, vivianrm@puc-rio.br Débora Lopes Pilotto Domingues PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, deborapilotto@puc-rio.br Sergio Augusto Barreto da Fontoura PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, fontoura@puc-rio.br Clemente José Gonçalves Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, clemente@petrobras.com.br Marcos Fonseca Alcure Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, marcosalcure@petrobras.com.br SUMMARY: 3D geological modeling is an important part of geomechanical models. Therefore, the knowledge of spatial distribution algorithms of geological properties is essential for the proper characterization of the subsurface. Generally, geostatistical and neural networks can be used as forecasting strategies of geological characteristics. One problem in forecasting logs and geomechanical properties is that they are not linearly related to several decision variables. Through neural networks it is possible to describe the behavior of complex systems and to estimate relevant correlations between a given set of inputs and another of outputs using a nonlinear function. Alternatively, fuzzy logic is a knowledge-based system that allows adding rules, which can be used to infer the result of a forecast. This work presents a methodology for 3D geological modeling of oil fields using artificial neural networks for forecasting geological properties, and a Fuzzy logic system – employed in order to improve the performance of neural network through the inclusion of geological rules. It was concluded that, using both computational intelligence techniques, it is possible to obtain reliable models based on numerical results. KEYWORDS: Neural networks, Fuzzy logic, properties forecast. 1 INTRODUCTION One problem in predicting logs and 3D geomechanical properties is that they are related to several decision variables, such as seismic attributes, lithofacies, information core and well logs. This large database generates highly nonlinear relations regarding the variables to be forecast; thus, contributing to the low performance of the predictive models of standard statistical methods. Neural networks have great potential for the precise description of complex systems behavior. Neural networks make it possible to approximate a relation between an input set of dimension n and an output set of dimension m through a nonlinear function. This method allows for an efficient representation of highly SBMR 2014 nonlinear relations and performs well in situations in which the mathematical model related to the problem to be solved is very complex to obtain (Haykin, 1999; Mohaghegh, 2000). Artificial neural networks are becoming increasingly popular in areas such as geology and geophysics. They are used, for instance, in the characterization of petroleum reservoirs, for geological properties forecasting and well logs prediction, for seismic inversion and fractures modeling (Mohaghegh and Ameri, 1995; Van der Baan and Jutten, 2000; Calderón-Macías et al., 2000; Mohaghegh, 2005; Baddari et al. (2010) and Darabi et al., 2010). Huang et al. (1996) used back-propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) to model the interrelations between spatial position, six different well logs, and permeability. The BP- ANN produced permeability values that compared well to measured values in the cored intervals. Fung et al. (1996) used neural networks and Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) for forecasting rock properties. Saggaf et al. (2003) used BP-NN to estimate the distribution of reservoir porosity using 3D seismic in the field of Ghawar, Saudi Arabia. Wang et al. (1998) modeled porosity distribution through the integration of techniques of neural networks and kriging in the field of A'nan, north of China. The association of geostatistics and neural network can also be found in Niu et al. (2000) and Nakayama (2000). Studies involving the relation between reservoir properties and seismic attributes to estimate 3D reservoir parameters can be found in Arzuman (2009). Although seismic attributes assist in predicting the geological properties, they add more complexity to the forecasting operation, due to nonlinearities of seismic attributes and large amount of seismic 3D data. Most studies mentioned above use a single neural network for predicting properties in the well and 3D field. This paper proposes a model of multi-neural networks in which each neural network is designed for each geological zone of the subsurface. For this purpose, a study of the different types of input variables in each neural network appropriate for each zone was carried out. This study implied working with many variables. A principal component analysis was carried out in order to reduce the dimension of data space variables. The variables were chosen among seismic attributes, well logs and geological properties of reservoir. This strategy has the advantage of assigning neural networks for each spatial region of the reservoir for more accuracy in prediction. In general, the prediction of geological properties by neural networks or by any other prediction model are subject to errors due to possible criteria disregarded in the forecast, such as geological faults, fractures, data quality, very thin facies layers and heterogeneity in the field. To correct possible errors in the prediction, a system with fuzzy logic is used to infer the result of the prediction model. Lin and Cunningha (1995) have proposed the use of fuzzy logic to model the identification of nonlinear systems. Subsequently, other studies used this strategy for reservoir characterization (Bhuiyan, 2001; Weiss et al., 2001). Lim and Kim (2004) proposed a model that uses fuzzy logic to select the best reservoir properties, which will be used by the neural network for the prediction of permeability and porosity. Taghavi (2005) used linear regression and fuzzy logic in the prediction of permeability and concluded that the fuzzy logic produced better results. Kadkhodaie-Ilkhchi et al. (2009) used seismic attributes as decision variables in a committee fuzzy inference system for estimating water saturation and porosity parameters. The model proposed in this paper is divided in two stages. The first stage is the prediction of properties using neural networks and the second stage is to use fuzzy logic to correct possible errors in the prediction, using expert knowledge. Next, we present the theoretical framework of the theories used herein such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and principal component analysis. The proposed method is described afterwards followed by the description of the application of the method to predict sonic logs at a field case. Finally, we present some conclusions regarding the method, its potential and possible developments for its application are drawn. SBMR 2014 2 THEORY 2.1 Neural Networks The Rumelhart-Hinton-Williams multilayer network that we consider here is a feed-forward type network with connections between adjoining layers only. Networks generally have hidden layers between the input and output layers. Each layer consists of computational units as it can be seen in Figure 1. The input-output relationship of each unit is represented by inputs 𝑥𝑖, output 𝑦, connection weights 𝑤𝑖, threshold 𝜃, and differentiable function 𝜑 as follows: 𝑦 = 𝜑(∑ 𝑤𝑖𝑥𝑖 − 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝜃) (1) Usually, the function φ is called the activation function, which is a bounded and monotone differentiable function such as the sigmoid function represented by Equation (2), where 𝑎 is the slope parameter of the function (Funahashi, 1989). 𝑓(𝑥) = 1 1+𝑒−𝑎𝑥 (2) The learning rule of the neural network is known as backpropagation algorithm (Rumelhart et al., 1986) and consists in the use of the gradient descent method to find a set of weights so that the error between the desired output and the output signal network is minimized. Figure 1. Schematic Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network (Darabi, et al. 2010). Neural network modeling process comprises three basic steps related to experimental data: training, testing and predicting. Network training is the process of adjusting the network connection weight so that explanatory and response values match the data as closely as possible. Testing data are used for checking the training. Finally, validating data are used for studing model accuracy. A comprehensive reference on neural networks can be found in Haykin (1999). 2.2 Fuzzy Logic Fuzzy logic is a logic based on fuzzy set theory which aims to model the approximate mode of reasoning, mimicking human ability to make decisions in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision (Zadeh, 1976; Pedrycz and Gomide, 1998). It allows intelligent control and decision support systems to deal with imprecise information. A fuzzy logic system is able to simultaneously process numerical data and linguistic knowledge (Mendel, 1995). In fuzzy set theory, each element may belong to a set of degree (μ), which can take values ranging from 0 to 1. Each fuzzy set is represented by a membership function (MF). MFs can present several types, such as Gaussian, triangular, trapezoidal and sigmoidal, see Figure 2. Figure 2. Examples of four classes of parameterized MFs We aim, with this work, at developing a fuzzy inference system FIS, which is a process that maps a set of input data into a set of output data SBMR 2014 using fuzzy logic. A FIS has 4 main parts, presented in Figure 2, which are (a) fuzzification, (b) rules, (c) inference engine and (d) defuzzification. Figure 3. Main parts of a Fuzzy Inference Systems. The fuzzification consists in mapping out the accurate inputs or non-fuzzy (crips) numbers (resulting measurements) into fuzzy sets. This process is needed in order to activate rules which are expressed in terms of linguistic variables and have fuzzy sets associated to them. Rules can be provided by experts or extracted from the numerical data (this method is particularly useful in problems of forecasting time series) in the form of linguistic sentences, e.g., “IF 𝑢1 is very warm and 𝑢2 is quite low THEN turn 𝑣 somewhat to the right”. The inference process are used to combine fuzzy IF-THEN rules from to fuzzy rule base into a mapping from fuzzy input set to fuzzy output set. Once the fuzzy output set is obtained through inference (modus ponens generalized), the stage of defuzzification is carried out in order to interpret the information. There are several defuzzification methods in the literature, two of the most used ones are the center of gravity and the mean of the maximum. In this work, the fuzzy inference used is called the method of Mamdani in which the output membership functions are fuzzy sets. After the aggregation process, there is a fuzzy set for each output variable that needs defuzzification. For example, consider the rule: 𝑅𝑖: 𝑖𝑓 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝐴1𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝐵1𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑧 𝑖𝑠 𝐶𝑖, 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛 The process of Mamdani method is illustrated in Figure 4 and more details on this method can be obtained from Kadkhodaie- Ilkhchi (2009). Figure 4. Illustration of Fuzzy Inference Systems. 2.3 Principal Components Analysis The principal component analysis (PCA) is a linear transformation of data to a new coordinate system (space features). This transformation is designed so that the data set can be represented by a reduced number of data ensuring higher intrinsic information contained in the data set. Therefore, the data set is reduced dimensionally. In this sense, PCA can be defined as an optimal linear transformation in order to preserve the subspace that has the highest variance. Principal component analysis is a technique commonly used in pattern recognition and signal processing applications. In petroleum field, it is widely used especially in the area of geo-modeling and in modeling 3D properties where the amount of data is too large e.g. seismic attributes. In this sense, it is used to reduce the dimension of the data. Hagen (1982) describes the application of PCA to model seismic stratigraphy and Brito (2010) also mentions seismic data and seismic attribute volume to improve seismic stratigraphy using PCA. Guo et al. (2006) describe the use of PCA to reduce the dimension of the spectral components in seismic images to delineate stratigraphic features of interest. 3 PROPOSED MODEL This paper proposes a model using neural networks and fuzzy logic for predicting geological properties and electric logs in SBMR 2014 petroleum reservoirs. Figure 5 shows the block diagram of the proposed model. The model is divided into three steps. The first step is called data preparation; it includes the division of the model field in 𝑛 geological zones and the evaluation of decision variables that the neural network will use in predicting properties in each zone. The decision variables include the seismic attributes due to its 3D nature (seismic cube), which helps predicting properties (Taner, 2001), the facies observed at the drilled wells that provide the geological lithology in each zone, the well log at drilled wells and the normalized coordinates x, y, z for each well. Finally, data dimensionality is reduced using PCA. Figure 5. Proposed Model. The second step is the development of the model using neural networks and fuzzy logic. In this step, neural networks are designed for each geological zone in order to predict some property �̂�. The advantage of using this strategy is that it is easy to identify which neural network had the lowest or highest performance in predicting and then change one decision variable or the structure of the neural network. On the other hand, choosing the input variables for each neural network is complex because each network will not necessarily have the same entries. The strategy used for setting is shown in Figure 6. Figure 6. Neural Networks Strategy. Once the prediction by neural network is carried out, a fuzzy logic system is applied. Since it is possible to enter if-then rules with a geologic sense in fuzzy system in order to eliminate errors due to possible criteria disregarded in the forecast, such as geological faults, fractures, low data quality noises, very thin facies layers, there is a reduction of errors in forecasting, especially in thinner layers of zones where the neural network does not have good performance in prediction, as found by Tang et al. (2011). The third step is to regroup all the results of neural networks in each zone to generate the 3D model of the field. To evaluate the predicted outcome the results of all networks in each zone are added together and compared to the same property in well validation (i.e. a well whose data were not used at all stages). 4 APPLICATION OF THE PROPOSED MODEL In this section, the proposed model is applied for the studied field. The methodology used is as follows: (i) the studied field has eight wells that will be referred to as 𝑝1, 𝑝2, 𝑝3, 𝑝4, 𝑝5, 𝑝7 and 𝑝8, (ii) well 𝑝4 is chosen as well validation, i.e. it will only be used to compare with the final result of the prediction made by the proposed model. The studied field is divided into seven geological zones so seven neural networks will be projected. SBMR 2014 In this first example, the objective is to design the proposed model to predict the cube of compressional sonic log, DTC, in the field. As explained in the previous section, the set of input variables for each neural network is selected using studies such as Taner (2000), Arzuman (2009) and Azevedo et al. (2009) that show the usefulness of each seismic attribute for detecting geological properties. The selected variables are presented in Table 1, where A is amplitude, AI is the acoustic impedance, IV is interval velocity, F is the facies and ‖𝑧‖ is the normalization of depth. The input variables of each network is shown in Table 1 and the results of the proposed model of DTC prediction in the 3D field is shown in Figure 7, where the vertical arrow is the location of the well validation 𝑝4 Table 1. Selecting inputs by neural networks - DTC. Zone NN A AI IV F ‖𝑍‖ 1 1 X - X X X 2 2 X - X X X 3 3 X - X X X 4 4 X X - X X 5 5 - X X X X 6 6 - X X X X 7 7 X X - X X Figure 7. Prediction of DTC at coordinate J. To validate this model the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is calculated according to equation 3, where 𝑥 is the value of property DTC in well validation 𝑝4, �̂� is the DTC estimated by the proposed model. Using this error measure, a MAPE of 6.10% was obtained. 𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = |𝑥−�̂�| 𝑥 × 100 (3) The same exercise was done for the shear sonic log, DTS, following the same procedure. Table 2 shows the input variables for the neural networks. The result of the prediction model is shown in Figure 8, with a MAPE regarding well validation of 6.80%. Table 2. Selecting inputs by neural networks - DTS. Zone NN A AI IV F ‖𝑍‖ 1 1 X - X X X 2 2 X X - X X 3 3 - X X X X 4 4 X X - X X 5 5 - X X X X 6 6 - X X X X 7 7 X X - X X Figure 8. Forecast DTS by Neural Network at coordinate J. It can be seen in Figure 8, the formation of pockets, which can be interpreted as errors in forecasting, especially in very thin layers where the neural network cannot get a good prediction, as in Tang et al. (2011). One way of solving this problem is to use a filter to eliminate these disturbances. In this case, it is advisable to use Fuzzy Logic. To do this, rules for the behavior of properties of well profiles such as DTC, Gamma SBMR 2014 Ray and DTS, were generated as follows: 1. If RG is low and RHOB is high then DTS is low. 2. If RG is high and RHOB is medium then DTS is medium. 3. If RG is low and RHOB is medium then DTS is medium. It is important to highlight that these rules are just examples and should not be applied as general truth. The fuzzy sets were designed according to the expert's knowledge and statistics of each profile, as shown in Figure 9. The fuzzy sets and fuzzy inference system were developed using the Petrel calculated by a program *. mac. Figure 9. Fuzzy Sets Gamma Ray, respectively low, medium and high GR. The fuzzy system accepts two inputs: the Gamma Ray GR and Resistivity RHOB. Then, the input data are normalized (fuzzification step), followed by the application of fuzzy inference system and denormalization of data output (desfuzzication), resulting in a DTS real value. This process can be seen in Figure 10. Figure 10. Fuzzy inference system. Applying the fuzzy system in prediction made by the neural network in thinner layers can reduce the approximation error of the neural network. This can be seen in Figure 11. Using this strategy, the MAPE is reduced to 5.94%. Figure 11. Filtered using Fuzzy Logic. It can also be seen in Figure 11 that the neural network has a lower performance on thin layers due to the limited information in these regions. 5 CONCLUSIONS This paper presents a method for 3D geological modeling of oil fields using artificial neural networks for forecasting geological properties and a system of fuzzy logic to improve the prediction performance. The proposal for designing one neural network for each different geological unit improves the evaluation of the performance of each neural network as well as facilitates the selection of input parameters for each geological zone. The use of fuzzy logic in order to make the prediction of properties more accurate indicated that the technique is quite promising. As future work, it is proposed to study de fuzzy inference rules that can help predict specific properties; possibly rules that include the degree of rock fracturing. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank Petrobras for the data provided and Schlumberger for the academic SBMR 2014 license of the Petrel software. REFERENCES Azevedo, L. (2009). Seismic Attributes in Hydrocarbon Reservoirs Characterization. MSc. Dissertation. Departamento de Geociencias, Universidade de Oviedo. Arzuman, S. (2009). Comparasion of Geoestatistics and Artificial Neural Networks in Reservoir Property Estimation. 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