Brazil Country Profile

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CLIMATE
ACTION
TRACKER
Brazil
This country pro�le assesses the Brazil’s past, present and indications of 
future performance towards a low-carbon economy by evaluating 
emissions, decarbonisation, climate policy performance and climate 
�nance. The pro�le summarises the respective �ndings from, amongst 
others, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI, operated by
Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe), the Climate Action 
Tracker (CAT, operated by Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, 
Ecofys and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), and 
analyses from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
BROWN TO GREEN:
G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY
In Brazil, GHG emissions have risen since 1990, a 
trend likely to continue to 2030. Land use, land-use 
change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions play a 
major role in Brazil’s GHG pro�le. At their 1995 peak, 
they were nearly triple those of all GHG emissions 
from other sources, but have now declined. Since 
2011, LULUCF emissions have been lower than 
energy-related CO2. Energy-related CO2/capita have 
risen, but are well below G20 average. CCPI 2016 
rates Brazil’s emissions as relatively good, but 
growing energy-related emissions per capita 
account for a negative trend.
Human Development Index Share of global
GHG emissions 
GHG emissions
per capita
(tCO2e/cap)
Share of
global GDP
GDP
per capita
0 10.82
G20 average
0.75
5.7% 6* 8.7
G20
average 3% 
$
$
$ 12,982
Source: UNDP, data for 2015 Source: World Bank Indicators, data for 2012 Source: IEA, data for 2013
$ 15,071
$
G20
average
CCPI evaluation of emissions level and trend
very poor poor medium good very good
Level
Weak trend
Strong trend
GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS
CO2 emissions
from forestry 28%
N2O 13%
CH4 28%
F-Gases 1%
CO2* 30%
Composition of
GHG emissions
*CO2 emissions excl. LULUCF
Source: Annex I countries:
UNFCCC (2015); Non-Annex I
countries: IEA (2014) and CAT (2015)
Historic emissions
(excluding forestry)
Current policy emissions projections
(excluding forestry)
Energy-related
CO2 emissions per capita
Energy-related
CO2 emissions
Historic forestry
emissions/removals
G20 average of energy-related
CO2 emissions per capita
To
ta
l e
m
iss
io
ns
 (M
tC
O
2e
/a
)
0
1000
1500
2000
2500
500
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
Em
iss
io
ns
 p
er
 ca
pi
ta
 (t
CO
2/
ca
pi
ta
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
Sources: Past energy related emissions from the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI); past non-energy and future emissions projections from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT). 
CCPI calculations are primary based on the most recent IEA data; CAT calculations are based on national policies and country communications.
*As reported by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MCTI, 2014).
The World Bank Indicators, however, reported per capita emissions of Brazil to be 15 tCO2e/cap in 2012. 
DECARBONISATION
The energy intensity of Brazil’s economy (TPES/GDP) has 
remained at about the same level throughout recent 
years, in contrast to most G20 countries, which have 
falling energy intensity rates. Nevertheless, Brazil’s 
energy intensity remains below the G20 average. The 
CCPI evaluates the energy intensity of Brazil’s economy 
as relatively good, and sees a negative trend. 
Compared to the G20 average, Brazil's carbon intensity of 
total primary energy supply (CO2/TPES) is relatively low. 
While it has been rising since 2009, it is expected to 
remain relatively constant in the future. In 2013, CO2 
emissions per TPES were at a level of about 37 tCO2 per TJ, 
considered relatively good in the CCPI rating. Due to the 
increase within the last �ve years, the CCPI recognises a 
negative trend.
Share of coal Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
CCPI evaluation of energy intensity of GDP
very poor poor medium good very good
Level
Weak trend
Strong trend
CCPI evaluation of carbon intensity of energy sector
very poor poor medium good very good
Level
Weak trend
Strong trend
Evaluation of coal share in TPES
poor medium good
Source: own evaluation
The share of coal in Brazil’s total primary 
energy supply is relatively low. Since 1990 it 
has varied between 5% and 8%. For future 
predictions, it is expected that the share will 
remain on a level of around 6% until 2030.
Energy intensity
Average energy intensity
in G20
Source: CCPI, 2016
Energy intensity of the economy
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
98
19
96
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
To
ta
l P
rim
ar
y 
En
er
gy
 S
up
pl
y 
pe
r G
D
P 
PP
P 
(M
J p
er
 2
00
5 
U
S 
do
lla
r)
0
2
4
6
8
1
3
5
7
9
10
Sources: Past: CCPI; future projections: CAT
Carbon intensity of the energy sector
Carbon intensity
(past trend)
Carbon intensity
(current policy projection)
Global benchmark
for a 2°C pathway
Average carbon intensity
in G20
Min
Max
To
nn
es
 o
f C
O
2 p
er
 T
PE
S(
tC
O
2/
TJ
)
0
20
40
60
10
30
50
70
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
Source: CAT
% of coal (past trend)
Average % of coal in G20
% of coal (current policy
projections)
Global benchmark for a 2°C
pathway (min & max)
Total coal consumption (TJ)
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
0
10%
20%
30%
5%
15%
25%
35%
40%
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
To
ta
l c
oa
l i
n 
TP
ES
 [T
J]
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
Source: CAT, 2015 Source: CAT, 2015
Electricity demand per capita
Brazil’s electricity demand per capita continuously increased 
over recent years, but remains relatively low compared to 
other G20 countries. It is expected that it will further increase 
until 2030. 
Emissions intensity of the electricity sector
Brazil’s electricity emissions intensity has increased, and today 
is around 98 gCO2 per kWh. This relatively low intensity level 
results from the large hydropower sector and its relatively 
well-developed renewable energy sector. Future projections 
show electricity emissions intensity will remain relatively 
stable. 
Brazil's share of renewable energy in electricity 
slightly decreased over the last decade. However, 
it remains at a very high level with a share of 82% 
in 2012. According to future projections, the share 
will slightly increase in the coming years. Due to its 
large-scale hydro power generation, nearly 40% of 
its primary energy supply comes from renewable 
sources, the highest share in the G20 countries. It 
must be noted that large hydro-power plants raise 
other environmental and social concerns. The CCPI 
assessment ranks Brazil as relatively good. Further 
growth in the renewables sector over the past �ve 
years contributes to a positive trend.
Evaluation of the electricity
emission intensity
poor medium good
Source: own evaluation
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
0
1000
2000
3000
500
1500
2500
3500
4000
El
ec
tr
ic
ity
 d
em
an
d 
pe
r c
ap
ita
 [k
W
h/
ca
p]
0
200
400
600
100
300
500
Em
is
si
on
s i
nten
si
ty
 o
f e
le
ct
ric
ity
 [g
CO
2/
kW
h]
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
Electricity demand per capita
(past trend)
Average electricity demand
per capita in G20
Electricity demand per capita
(current policy projections)
Emissions intensity
(past trend)
Average emissions intensity in G20
Emissions intensity
(current policy projections)
Good practice benchmark:
with large hydro potential (Norway) 
Good practice benchmark:
without nuclear or large
hydro potential (Denmark) 
Sources: CCPI and CAT
Renewable energy in TPES and electricity sector
% of renewable energy
in electricity (past trend)
% of renewable energy
in electricity
(current policy projections)
% of renewable energy
in TPES (past trend)
G20 average % of
renewable energy in TPES
Total renewable energy
consumption (TJ)
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
1000000
300-000
5000000
To
ta
l r
en
ew
ab
le
 e
ne
rg
y 
in
 T
PE
S 
[T
J]
0
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
20%
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
CCPI evaluation of renewable share in TPES
very poor poor medium good very good
Level
Weak trend
Strong trend
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
On national policy, experts highlighted Brazil’s weak 
governance and poor appreciation for economic 
opportunities in low carbon development. On 
international policy, experts acknowledged the 
e�orts in pushing negotiations, but criticised the 
poor mitigation ambition and willingness to 
compromise. Overall, the CCPI rates Brazil’s climate 
policy as medium.
Source: CAT, 2015
Brazil submitted its Intended Nationally 
Determined Contribution (INDC) on 28 September 
2015. Its target is to reduce net GHG emissions by 
37% below 2005 levels by 2025, after accounting for 
the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry 
(LULUCF) sector. The INDC also has an “indicative 
contribution” to reduce emissions by 43% below 
2005 levels by 2030, including LULUCF. It outlined 
steps to help meet the targets, including a share of 
45% renewables in the total energy mix by 2030. 
After excluding LULUCF, the Climate Action Tracker 
estimates the INDC will result in an increase in 
emissions of about 36% above 2005 levels by 2025. 
Based on this target, it rates Brazil “medium,” 
meaning it is inconsistent with limiting warming to 
below 2°C - unless other countries make much 
deeper reductions and comparably greater e�ort.
According to the CAT’s assessment, Brazil is very 
close to meeting its INDC targets under current 
policies. For example, the 45% renewable energy 
target represents a very small improvement relative 
to baseline projections. Currently implemented 
policies lead to about 41% of renewables in Brazil’s 
energy mix by 2030, close to today’s level of 41.3%.
CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE
Building codes, standards and incentives for low-emissions options
Support scheme for renewables in the power sector
Emissions performance standards for cars
Low emissions development plan for 2050*
2050 GHG emissions target 
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
Carbon tax
Source: Climate Policy Database, 2016
* understood as decarbonisation plans and not speci�cally as the plans called for in 
 the Paris Agreement
Checklist of the climate policy framework
CCPI evaluation of climate policy
very poor poor medium good very good
very poor
poor
medium
good
very good
CC
PI 
20
08
CC
PI 
20
09
CC
PI 
20
10
CC
PI 
20
11
CC
PI 
20
12
CC
PI 
20
13
CC
PI 
20
14
CC
PI 
20
15
CC
PI 
20
16
CCPI edition
National International
Source: CCPI, 2016
Climate policy evaluation by experts
The CCPI evaluates a country‘s performance in national and 
international climate policy through feedback from national energy 
and climate experts.
CAT evaluation of Brazil’s Intended National
Determinded Contributions (INDC)
inadequate medium su�cient role model
Compatibility of national climate targets (INDCs) with a 2°C scenario
To
ta
l e
m
is
si
on
s (
M
tC
O
2e
/a
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
Historic emissions
(excluding forestry)
Emissions in INDC scenario (max & min)
Current policy emissions
projections (excluding forestry)
Fair emissions reduction range
in a 2°C pathway
Historic forestry emissions/removals
Min
Max
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
FINANCING THE TRANSITION
Climate Transparency rates Brazil’s investment attractiveness as low to 
medium, due to weak long-term renewables targets, inadequate 
(�nancial) support policies for renewable energy development and 
unambitious past political action. While strongly relying on hydropower, 
Brazil has a low market absorption capacity for other renewables, despite 
a recent plan to increase non-hydro renewable capacity by 12GW by 
2018. 
Investment attractiveness
*Adapted from RECAI and re-classi�ed in 3 categories
(low, medium, high) for comparison purposes with Allianz Monitor. 
 **Taken from RECAI issue of May 2016
Allianz Energy and
Climate Monitor
RECAI* (E&Y index)
Category (own assessment)
Trend**
LOW
MEDIUM
Carbon pricing mechanisms
Although Brazil has no carbon pricing system yet in place, the 
government is currently exploring possibilities of using a national 
Emissions Trading Scheme to more cost-e�ectively meet its 
voluntary greenhouse gas reduction commitment. 
At the subnational level, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo are 
considering implementing ETS schemes to curb emissions from 
energy-intensive sectors. However, political opposition has 
signi�cantly delayed and further postponed their implementation. 
Sources: World Bank and Ecofys, 2016; other national sources
Historical investments in renewable energy and investment gap
Source: Adapted from WEIO, 2014(1)
(1) WEIO (2014) compares annual average investments from 2000 to 2013 with average annual investments needed from 2015 to 2030 under a 2°C scenario
% of current investments
in the power sector
compared to
the investment needs
under a 2°C pathway
Investments
in the power sector
57%
Investments in renewable energy
for the power sector
62%
% of current investments
for renewable energy
in the power sector
compared to
the investment needs
under a 2°C pathway
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
A Carbon tax directly sets a price on carbon by 
de�ning a tax rate on GHG emissions or – more 
commonly – on the carbon content of fossil 
fuels. Unlike an ETS, a carbon tax is a price-based 
instrument that pre-de�nes the carbon price, 
but not the emissions reduction outcome of a 
carbon tax.
An ETS caps the total level of GHG emissions and 
allows industries to trade allowances based on 
their marginal abatement cost. By creating a 
supply and demand for allowances, an ETS 
establishes a market price for GHG emissions. 
Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS)
Carbon Tax
This section shows Brazil’s current investments in the overall power sector (including distribution and transmission) as well as in 
renewable energy expressed as the share of the total annual investments needed to be in line with a 2°C compatible trajectory.
The Allianz Energy & Climate Monitor ranks G20 member states on their relative �tness 
as potential investment destinations for building low-carbon electricity infrastructure. 
The investmentattractiveness of a country is assessed through four categories: Policy 
adequacy, Policy reliability of sustained support, Market absorption capacity and the 
National investment conditions. The Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 
(RECAI) produces score and rankings for countries’ attractiveness based on Macro 
drivers, Energy market drivers and Technology-speci�c drivers which together 
compress a set of 5 drivers, 16 parameters and over 50 datasets. 
Sources: Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor and RECAI reports
GHG
Source: ODI, 2015
*The indicators above refer only to subsidies for fossil fuel production, and include direct spending (e.g. government budget expenditure on infrastructure that 
speci�cally bene�ts fossil fuels), tax expenditure (e.g. tax deductions for investment in drilling and mining equipment) and other support mechanisms (e.g. 
capacity mechanisms).
Petrobras, where the government holds the controlling interest, is Brazil’s largest oil and gas producer, producing over 5 times the 
combined of all Brazil’s 34 private oil and gas companies. The government o�ers a range of tax and budgetary subsidies for fossil fuel 
production, including preferential loans for oil and gas producers through Petrobras and the Brazilian Development Banks (BNDES). 
OECD data indicates a sharp decline in government direct spending on the extraction of petrol and natural gas in 2014. Paying the fuel 
costs for national coal power plants - a temporary mechanism resulting from the transition in regulatory models in the power industry - 
is expected to end in 2027. 
Fossil fuel subsidies
% of government’s income
from oil and gas production (2013)*
3.7%
Average annual
national subsidies (2013-14)*
G20 total
Brazil
$4.9 billion
$70 billion
Brazil - Country Pro�leBrown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
Public climate �nance
Brazil is not listed in Annex II of the UNFCCC, and it is therefore not formally obliged to provide climate �nance. While climate-related 
spending by multilateral development banks may exist, it has not been included in this report.