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RESEARCH ARTICLE Where did they come from? Genetic diversity and forensic investigation of the threatened palm species Butia eriospatha Alison Gonc¸alves Nazareno • Maurı´cio Sedrez dos Reis Received: 19 August 2013 / Accepted: 18 November 2013 / Published online: 22 November 2013 � Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013 Abstract Few studies have assessed the genetic diversity that exists in individuals that were illegally-traded. In this paper, we evaluate the genetic consequences of illegal trade of the palm species Butia eriospatha. Although it is protected by Brazilian environmental law, information about the genetic consequences of illegal trading which can be used to support conservation planning is still needed. The two main questions approached were: (a) do illegally- traded individuals have higher levels of genetic diversity than those found in wild populations; and (b) where did the illegally-traded individuals come from? To answer these questions, we used nine microsatellite loci to quantify the genetic diversity in eight wild populations (n = 390) and one group of individuals (n = 50) planted in an urban area of Southern Brazil. For the forensic investigation, an assignment exclusion-test was performed. Remarkably, the illegally-traded B. eriospatha individuals had more genetic variation than all of the studied wild B. eriospatha popu- lations, suggesting that there is no single target population used by poachers. Accordingly, the multilocus assignment test indicated that the urban B. eriospatha individuals came from a variety of different populations, with 46 % coming from populations not surveyed in this study. In light of these results, we discuss the very real problem of illegal trading of B. eriospatha that must be quickly addressed. Our results provide information that can be used to help support B. eriospatha conservation. Keywords Atlantic forest � Assignment test � Conservation genetics � Illegal trade Introduction Hundreds of millions of plants and animals species around the world have been hunted and caught for food, leather, and medicine (Kate and Laird 1999; Arroyo-Quiroz et al. 2007; Larsen and Olsen 2007) and the majority are sold to private collectors (Alves and Filho 2007; Rosa et al. 2011; Natusch and Lyons 2012). While some of this trade is legal and does not harm wild populations, an alarmingly large proportion is illegal (Redford 1992; Destro et al. 2012), putting many wild plant and animal species on the verge of extinction (Redford 1992; Wilkie et al. 2011). Some examples of illegal and unsustainable wildlife trade are well documented, such as poaching of elephants for ivory (Wasser et al. 2004, 2010), bears for their skin, claws and canines (Shepherd and Nijman 2008), rhinos for their horn (Graham-Rowe 2011), and felines for their skin and bones (Kenney et al. 1995; Check 2006). A long-term study in India showed that at least four leopards (Panthera pardus) have been poached every week for the past decade (Mutterback 2012). Another problematic example comes from Brazil where due to illegal trafficking, the bird spix’s macaw (Cyanopsitta spixii, ararinha-azul) is now extinct in the wild, with only 79 individuals left in the world (e.g. Qatar, Spain, Germany and Brazil) all being raised in captivity (Foldenauer et al. 2007). But the exploitation of species is not a new phenomenon. During the colonial period, the Brazilian tree ‘Pau Brasil’ (Caesalpinia Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10592-013-0552-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. A. G. Nazareno (&) � M. S. dos Reis Nu´cleo de Pesquisas em Florestas Tropicais, Federal University of Santa Catarina, CP 476, Floriano´polis, Santa Catarina 88040-900, Brazil e-mail: alison_nazareno@yahoo.com.br 123 Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 DOI 10.1007/s10592-013-0552-1 echinata) was harvested and sent to Portugal in such large quantities that the species almost became extinct (Bueno 2006). Likewise, at the beginning of the 20th century in Southern Brazil, the population of the Brazilian pine, Araucaria angustifolia, was almost completely decimated (Carvalho 2006). Around the word, the illegal trade of species and their products is a lucrative business, providing high returns with relatively little risk (Destro et al. 2012). In Brazil, nearly 40 million animal specimens are captured from the wild annu- ally, representing a total retail value of approximately US$2.5 billion a year (RENCTAS 2011). However, this amount is an underestimate; it does not consider the illegal trade of plants as data on plant poaching is rare. The orna- mental plants of some botanical families (e.g. Orchidaceae, Cactaceae, Bromeliaceae and Cyatheaceae) and timber tree species (e.g. Swietenia macrophylla) are the most traded plants in Brazil. According to the database of CITES (Con- vention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora that enforces regulations on Interna- tional Trade of species) during the period from 2006 to 2010, International trade in S. macrophylla alone reached an esti- mated value of US$168 million (CITES 2010). Even though some species are protected by environ- mental laws and by International agreements, we need to address trafficking of species from a multi-stakeholder approach in order to inform, facilitate and support con- servation plans and to reduce this serious threat facing biological diversity. Furthermore, identifying and protect- ing species that are jeopardized by illegal trade, such as the vulnerable palm species Butia eriospatha (IUCN 2012), can act as an insurance policy to preserve not only the future of the species, but also the futures of the species’ ecological communities. In Brazil, individuals of B. eriospatha have a high orna- mental value, approximately US$3,000, an amount which is one hundred times more than the price that poachers pay to landowners. In Europe and North America, where this spe- cies is also sold, its price varies depending on the stem size. Interestingly, in a forum from one US website (http://forums. gardenweb.com) we found the following dialogue: ‘‘We were attracted to the B. eriospatha because they’re a real feather palm and we want them to be at the front of our building—along with bananas, hibiscus, etc.—to set the tropical tone. But at this point, the nearest I’ve found any sizable trees is Holland……… or Brazil’’. A respondent then goes on to name an alternative source to purchase this species in California. All B. eriospatha individuals sold abroad and in Brazil are illegally poached, as they could not be the result of several generations of sub-cultivation. Thereby, their desirability and market value, as noted through the above exchange, underscore the susceptibility of this species to illegal trade. However, not all those who seek to purchase them as decorative plants are aware of their vulnerability. Furthermore, the habitat in which this vulnerable palm occurs (highlands or campos de altitude) is not adequately protected by conservation policies (Overbeck et al. 2007). Even more concerning is the fact that the Atlantic Forest (with scattered, discontinuous grassland areas, especially on the plateaus in the southern region) has been reduced to about 7 % of its original area (Morellato and Haddad 2000). Despite the significant fragmentation of the biome, researchers estimate that there are at least 20,000 plant species occurring in the biome (Myers et al. 2000), many of which are also at severe risk of extinction. Although B. eriospatha is protected byBrazilian law (Instruc¸a˜o Normativa 06, MMA 2008), information about the genetic consequences of illegal harvesting is still needed in order to effectively support conservation programs. From this point of view, the goals of this study were to: (i) quantify and compare the genetic diversity of wild B. eriospatha populations with a group of individuals that have been ille- gally traded and are now planted in urban areas, around luxurious homes, malls and public gardens in Southern Brazil; (ii) estimate the genetic differentiation between studied wild populations; and (iii) determine the originating population of the planted urban B. eriospatha individuals. To address these questions we used nine polymorphic micro- satellite loci and assessed the likely originating population of the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals using Bayesian assignment tests. In previous studies, nuclear microsatellites and allozymic variation in wild populations of B. eriospatha revealed significant genetic differentiation among popula- tions (Reis et al. 2012; Nazareno and Reis 2013). This regional feature of genetic variation, which is fundamental in determining the origins of individuals by assignment tests (Manel et al. 2002; Guinand et al. 2004), and their irregular distribution throughout Atlantic Forest highlands allowed us to test two linked hypotheses: (1) the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals come from multiple source popula- tions since the current distribution of native plants is so fragmented; and (2) due to their origins from multiple dif- ferentiated populations, the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals have more genetic diversity than those in distinct wild B. eriospatha populations. Our results provide impor- tant information for decision-makers to help support con- servation strategies of this threatened palm species as well as combat B. eriospatha trafficking in Brazil and abroad. Materials and methods Study species The slow-growing palm B. eriospatha (Fig. 1) is a monoecious species locally known as butia´-da-serra. This 442 Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 123 long-lived palm species is endemic to the Atlantic Forest and grows in highlands (or campos de altitude, a subtype of the Atlantic Forest Domain). Their populations, which are restricted to this specific habitat, generally consist of mature individuals aged 100 years or older. Populations often occur in dense and extensive clustered distributions (i.e. population-islands), known as butiazais (Fig. 1a). Some populations are on roadside verges and many of them are located on private properties. To our knowledge, there is no B. eriospatha population protected in nature reserves. Mating system analyses reveal that B. eriospatha (2n = 32; Correa et al. 2009) is predominantly an out- crossing species, although it is self-compatible and repro- duction can occur by geitonogamy (Nazareno and Reis 2012). Illegal trafficking of B. eriospatha, along with other threats facing the species (e.g., cattle grazing; Nazareno and Reis 2013), have contributed significantly to the spe- cies becoming at risk of local extinction due to a contin- uing decrease in the number of reproductive individuals. Sampling and study area As the assignment test applied herein does not require extensive sampling over the species’ native range (see explanation below), we sampled eight of 14 wild popula- tions of B. eriospatha located in Santa Catarina State, Western Plateau, Southern Brazil (A–H in Fig. 2). Although there are other B. eriospatha populations in Santa Catarina State, we focused our sampling in populations located within close proximity to highways (see Fig. 1a) because we believe that these populations are more sus- ceptible to illegal harvesting. We do not provide the exact locations of natural populations in this study in order to reduce the risk of poaching. A total of 360 reproductive B. eriospatha individuals, above five meters in height, were sampled. The number of B. eriospatha individuals sampled per population was 29 for population D, 41 for population C, and 50 for A, B, E, F and H. Except for populations C and D, in which samples from all individuals were col- lected, the B. eriospatha individuals were sampled at 50 m intervals to avoid sampling from relatives. In addition, a group of 50 B. eriospatha individuals (all are reproductive and with height above 5 m) were sampled from a non- native, urban area (X in Fig. 2). These plants were har- vested illegally and planted in malls, and public and private gardens (Fig. 1b) in the city of Floriano´polis, Santa Cata- rina, Southern Brazil. The B. eriospatha population nearest to the city of Floriano´polis is 200 km away. Considering the species is slow-growing and it takes 60–100 years for a B. eriospatha individual to reach five meters in height (information obtained from interviews with landowners), it is likely that the plants in the urban area come from natural populations and have not been grown from seeds. All of the natural populations included in the study have been impacted by anthropogenic activities such as cattle farm- ing, deforestation and the introduction of exotic species (e.g. Pinus sp.) that are cultivated in large homogeneous stands (Nazareno and Reis 2013). Data analysis The microsatellite data analyses followed two approaches. Our primary interest was in verifying the level of genetic diversity in wild populations as compared to a group of illegally-traded B. eriospatha individuals. Secondly, in order to identify the originating population of the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals, we checked the genetic homogeneity of each wild population using a Bayesian model. For forensic investigations, we conducted one exclusion-simulation method of assignment, based on Fig. 1 Individuals of Butia eriospatha (Martius ex Drude) Beccari in a clustered wild population (A) and in a public garden in the city of Floriano´polis (B), both in Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. The wild population (A) is surrounded by roadways (arrow) making access to these areas easier for illegal harvesting Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 443 123 multilocus genotype data, in order to determine the likely origin of the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals. Genotyping and genetic analyses Genomic DNA extraction from leaves was conducted using the NucleoSpin� kit (MACHEREY–NAGEL GmbH & Co. KG), according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Ampli- fication protocols for nine microsatellite loci are described in Nazareno et al. (2011). Amplification products were dena- tured and separated with 10 % polyacrylamide gels stained with silver nitrate. Allele sizes were estimated by compari- son with a 10 base pair DNA ladder standard (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA). Deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium were tested for each B. eriospatha population. The significant levels for linkage equilibrium were modified for multiple comparisons by Bonferroni correction (Rice 1989). Allele frequencies and the fol- lowing parameters were then calculated: allelic richness (AR), number of private (AP) and rare alleles (R; defined as those with a frequency of less than 5 %), observed Fig. 2 Highlands (dark gray areas) in the Atlantic Forest (IBGE 2004) where Butia eriospatha (Martius ex Drude) Beccari can occur in Southern Brazil (States of Parana´, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul). The black circles indicate the eight natural populations (A–H) and one urban area (X) from which genetic samples were obtained in Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil444 Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 123 heterozygosity (HO), and expected heterozygosity (HE, Nei 1978). Rarefaction approach was used to standardize A to the smallest sample size in each comparison. All of these analyses were run using the program FSTAT 2.9.3.2 (Goudet 2002). In order to compare the average values of AR, HO and HE between wild populations and the group of illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals, the 95 % confi- dence interval of the standard error of these parameters were calculated using a jackknife procedure across all loci. The inbreeding index (FIS) was also estimated and its significance (determined by 10,000 permutations across all loci) tested using the SPAGeDi program (Hardy and Ve- kemans 2002). The genetic differentiation was estimated using an unbiased estimator (with respect to sample size) of FST (Weir and Cockerham 1984) with FSTAT 2.9.3 (Goudet 2002). Null allele frequencies were assessed for all popu- lations using the Microchecker software V 2.2.0 (van Oo- sterhout et al. 2004). If significant homozygosity was detected at a given locus, it was dropped and a modified average FIS over loci was calculated. Significance was calculated from jackknife over loci. Likewise, estimates of genetic differentiation between populations were calcu- lated using the ENA method (10,000 permutations) implemented in FreeNA (Chapuis and Estoup 2007), which corrects for the presence of null alleles. Furthermore, FST values calculated with FSTAT 2.9.3 and FreeNA were used to investigate isolation by distance pattern. The relation- ship between the matrix of the logarithm of geographical distances and the matrix of pairwise genetic distance [FST/ (1 - FST), Rousset 1997] was analysed via a Mantel’s test (Mantel 1967) with 30,000 randomizations using the pro- gram IBDWS 3.23 (Jensen et al. 2005). Identification of genetic units and forensic analysis In order to test whether B. eriospatha populations were genetically differentiated without a priori classification of individuals, a Bayesian model was executed in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), as implemented in the struc- ture program, version 2.3.4 (Hubisz et al. 2009). In this model, the number of populations, K, is treated as a param- eter processed by the MCMC scheme without any approxi- mation providing a better estimation of K. Based on the spatial configuration and distribution of the sampled B. eriospatha populations and high allozyme variation between B. eriospatha populations (FST = 0.36, Reis et al. 2012), we performed our analysis under the assumption that the allele frequencies in different populations are not correlated with one another and that alleles carried at a particular locus by a particular individual originated in some known population (no admixture model). The K was set from 2 to 8 with each K estimate replicated 15 times with 100,000 burn-in iterations and 500,000 data iterations. In order to estimate the appropriate number of populations, we estimate DK as an ad hoc quantity related to the second order rate of change of the log probability of data with respect to the number of clusters, as proposed by Evanno et al. (2005). To identify a possible source population for the illegally traded individuals of B. eriospatha, individual assignment tests were performed using a Bayesian multilocus-approach (Rannala and Mountain 1997), implemented in the Gene- Class 2.0 (Piry et al. 2004). Prior to assignment tests, we verified the applicability of the Bayesian method using Rannala and Mountain (1997) for our dataset in GeneClass 2.0. For this procedure, all individuals of the reference population (the eight sampled populations) were self-clas- sified within the sampled populations using self-assignment (leave-one-out procedure; Efron 1983). For this approach, the program excludes one sample from one population and runs assignment tests against the rest of the data, calcu- lating a mean value of the scores of each individual in the population to which it belongs. In the Bayesian model-based assignment test imple- mented in GeneClass 2.0, the assumption that the true pop- ulation of origin has been sampled is not required. The exclusion simulation method was calculated based on the resampling algorithm described in Paetkau et al. (2004). In the GeneClass 2.0 program, the allele frequencies from a sampled population are used to compute the likelihood of a genotype occurring in the population; it compares the like- lihood of the specific genotype to a distribution of the like- lihoods of simulated genotypes for each investigated population. In our analysis, the genotypes were generated by MCMC simulations of 10,000 individuals for each of the sampled B. eriospatha populations. In order to exclude an individual from all but the true population of origin, one strict criterion was chosen (p value of 0.001; i.e. if a specific genotype is observed less than once in 1,000 randomly simulated genotypes, the population will be excluded as the origin). Using GeneClass2.0, we also performed an exclu- sion test based on allele frequencies to calculate likelihoods (Paetkau et al. 1995) to determine the most likely candidate population from the non-excluded populations. No addi- tional analysis to correct null alleles was performed, since Carlsson (2008) has show that microsatellite loci affected by null alleles do not alter the overall outcome of this test. Results Genetic diversity A total of 440 individuals from the wild populations and the urban area were surveyed (Table 1), in which 57 alleles were identified across nine microsatellite loci. As expected, Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 445 123 the allelic richness (AR) and expected heterozygosity (HE) in the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals differed significantly from the values calculated in wild populations according to the 95 % confidence interval calculated by the jackknife method (Table 1; Fig. S1). However, the observed heterozygosity did not significantly differ between the illegally traded B. eriospatha individuals and those in wild populations (Table 1). Of the 13 private alleles observed, 9 or 70 % were found in the urban area. We observed a greater number of rare alleles in this group of individuals (Table 1). Our results also indicated that B. eriospatha plants that occur in the urban area of Flori- ano´polis have an expected heterozygosity value slightly higher than the B. eriospatha individuals in wild popula- tions. The average observed heterozygosity (HO) within wild populations was 0.36, ranging from 0.22 to 0.47 (Table 1). These values are considerably lower than the expected heterozygosity assuming the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, which averaged 0.48. For the eight wild B. eriospatha populations, the test for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium found that of 144 locus- population combinations, 46, 34 and 20, or 32.0, 23.6 and 13.9 %, showed significant deviation at p \ 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001, respectively. The test for the genotypic disequilib- rium in all wild population samples found that 79 of 288 locus combinations or 27.4 % showed significant deviation at the p \ 0.05; however, none of the locus pairs were found to be in significant genotypic disequilibrium after the Bonferroni correction (p \ 0.001). The average FIS values were 0.25 (ranging from 0.04 to 0.46) for all studied wild B. eriospatha populations. As the FIS was positive and significantly different from zero for all but one population (Table 1), the excess homozygosity observed can be due to the combined effects of null alleles (Table S1) and inbreeding. When loci with significant null alleleswere omitted from the analysis, the FIS values remained positive and significantly different from zero for six of the seven populations (Table 1). This result indicates that these six populations likely lose allelic richness through inbreeding. The overall estimate of genetic differentiation (Weir and Cockerham 1984) was significant among B. eriospatha populations (FST = 0.23, p \ 0.05). This value was similar to the overall estimate of FST obtained after the correction for null alleles (FST = 0.17, p \ 0.05). However, the geographic distance among B. eriospatha populations did not explain the pattern of genetic differentiation observed (i.e., lack of isolation by distance, Z = 15.73, r = 0.05, p = 0.63; Fig. 3A), indicating that there is an imbalance between drift and migration. Our results also indicated that null alleles inflated the estimates of genetic distance (Fig. 3). However, even after the correction for null alleles in the FST pairwise estimates, no isolation by distance was observed for B. eriospatha populations (Z = 10.79, r = 0.09, p = 0.70; Fig. 3B). The matrix of geographic distance and the pairwise FST values quantifying genetic differentiation among B. eriospatha populations are presented in Table 2. Bayesian cluster analysis Bayesian clustering without prior information about the geographical origins of populations showed that the highest Table 1 Population genetics estimates for eight Butia eriospatha (Martius ex Drude) Beccari populations sampled in Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Estimates for a group of 50 B. eriospatha individuals sampled in an urban area, in Floriano´polis, Santa Catarina, are also presented Samples N n K AP/R AR (CI95 %) HE (CI95 %) HO (CI95 %) FIS FIS 1 A 490 50 26 0/3 2.89 (± 0.15) 0.49 (± 0.03) 0.43 (± 0.02) 0.13* 0.08* B 610 50 30 0/5 3.33 (± 0.16) 0.47 (± 0.02) 0.42 (± 0.01) 0.12* 0.08* C 41 41 23 0/1 2.56 (± 0.22) 0.40 (± 0.02) 0.22 (± 0.01) 0.46* 0.12* D 29 29 28 0/4 3.11 (± 0.17) 0.49 (± 0.02) 0.47 (± 0.02) 0.04 0.00 E 120 50 29 1/2 3.22 (± 0.15) 0.52 (± 0.01) 0.35 (± 0.01) 0.32* 0.13* F 150 50 26 0/4 2.88 (± 0.08) 0.49 (± 0.01) 0.29 (± 0.03) 0.41* 0.12* G 40 40 25 0/2 2.67 (± 0.10) 0.47 (± 0.02) 0.29 (± 0.02) 0.38* 0.13* H 100 50 33 2/10 3.67 (± 0.18) 0.50 (± 0.03) 0.43 (± 0.01) 0.15* -0.06 X 200 50 44 9/12 5.11 (± 0.22) 0.62 (± 0.03) 0.40 (± 0.02) nc nc The genetic parameters AR and HE are significantly different between wild populations (A–H) and the group of illegally traded individuals (X) according to the 95 % confidence interval N estimate of population size, n sample size, K number of alleles, AP number of private alleles, R number of rare alleles (here defined as alleles with a frequency of less than 5 %), AR allelic richness by rarefaction based on the minimum sample size of 29 individuals, HE and HO expected and observed heterozygosity respectively, FIS inbreeding index, FIS 1 inbreeding index excluding the loci segregating for null alleles, CI95 % 95 % standard error calculated by the jackknife method * Significant at p \ 0.05. nc, not calculated 446 Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 123 likelihood value (DK) occurred at K = 6 (Fig. S2), where the number of clusters (K) was similar to the number of wild populations sampled in this study (n = 8). Although we expected a K equal to six due to the spatial clustering of populations (e.g., clustering of populations A and B, and E and F), the K value was not the result of population clus- ters. The difference between the number of clusters and the number of sampled populations was due to the grouping of three populations (A, B, and H) into only one unit. While it makes biological sense for populations A and B to be grouped as they are located in close proximity to each other (less than 4.0 km), this result is noteworthy because the H population is separated from populations A and B by a distance of 129 km. However, this result strengthens our previous observations of lack of isolation by distance among B. eriospatha populations. Bayesian clustering with and without prior information about geographical origins of populations, considering both the allele frequencies in different populations are correlated with one another and the admixture model (data not show), also indicated that highest likelihood value (DK) occurred at K = 6. Assignment tests Considering all nine loci and the eight B. eriospatha pop- ulations as reference data, the self-assignment tests indi- cated that 36 % of all individuals were correctly assigned. For eight populations, the expectation of correctly assign- ing individuals by chance is 12.5 %. However, the mean value of the scores from the individual self-assignment tests was higher when we used the results of the Bayesian cluster analysis (i.e., six populations). Fifty-three percent 0 50 100 150 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0 . 6 0. 8 1. 0 Geographic distance (Km) G en et ic di st an ce A 0 50 100 150 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0 . 6 0 . 8 1. 0 Geographic distance (Km) B Fig. 3 Scatter plots of pairwise genetic distance [FST/(1- FST)] versus geographical distance (Km) for eight Butia eriospatha (Martius ex Drude) populations sampled in Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. The geographic distance among populations did not explain the pattern of genetic differentiation quantified by the presence (A) and absence of null alleles (B) Table 2 Matrix of the geographic distances (km; above diagonal) and the genetic differentiation (FST; below diagonal) between eight B. eriospatha populations from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil, based on nine microsatellite loci Populations A B C D E F G H A – 3.2 26.7 100.7 127.5 123.8 21.5 128.9 B 0.039 – 25.1 97.8 126.1 122.5 20.8 129.1 C 0.355* 0.364* – 101.7 144.1 140.8 44.2 152.7 D 0.240* 0.223* 0.381* – 80.8 80.5 87.8 126.7 E 0.123* 0.196* 0.325* 0.208* – 4.4 106.2 58.3 F 0.159* 0.202* 0.367* 0.227* 0.168* – 102.5 55.3 G 0.167* 0.181* 0.435* 0.181* 0.159* 0.206* – 108.6 H 0.099* 0.035 0.358* 0.218* 0.150* 0.206* 0.157* – B 0.027* – C 0.205* 0.196* – D 0.220* 0.211* 0.284* – E 0.107* 0.184* 0.200* 0.189* – F 0.133* 0.171* 0.191* 0.197* 0.144* – G 0.152* 0.170* 0.254* 0.178* 0.150* 0.171* – H 0.091* 0.040 0.206* 0.188* 0.137* 0.172* 0.137* – In bold are the pairwise FST values using the ENA correction method as proposed by Chapuis and Estoup (2007) Asterisks denote values that are significant at the 0.05 level Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 447 123 of all individuals were assigned correctly when populations A, B and H were merged into one single population. For this scenario, the expectation of correct assignment by chance is 16.7 %. In the following analyses we consider that the performance of individual assignment tests were better when populations A, B and H were grouped. The forensic analysis using the exclusion-simulation significance test found that 24 of the B. eriospatha indi- viduals (48 %) sampled in the urban area have an unknown origin (p \ 0.001). For just three individuals (6 %), we excluded all but one population as the probable population of origin. Two individuals were assigned to the set of populations A, B, and H. The other B. eriospatha indi- vidual was assigned to the D population. On the other hand, 23 out of the 50 B. eriospatha individuals (46 %) may have come from several of the six populations identified a pos- teriori (K = 6). For instance, for one individual we excluded only one of the six populations as not being its probable population of origin. For these 23 individuals, the highest score of likelihoods among the non-excluded populations indicated populationsC, E and G as the most likely source population for 2, 10 and 11 individuals, respectively. Discussion Defined as any act that intentionally contravenes the laws and regulations established to protect biological resources, poaching (or illegal trade, Muth and Bowe 1998) is con- sidered one of the most significant threats to biological diversity (Redford 1992; Alacs et al. 2010; Wilkie et al. 2011; Destro et al. 2012). One of the main issues assessed was whether B. eriospatha individuals that were illegally traded and planted outside their natural area have higher levels of genetic diversity than the ones found in wild populations. Interestingly, the analysis of microsatellite allelic data revealed that the group of B. eriospatha individuals that were illegally traded had more genetic variation (i.e. allelic richness, expected heterozygosity) than all the studied wild B. eriospatha populations, suggesting that there is no pre- ferred target source population. Private and rare alleles were also observed in greater numbers in the urban popu- lation than the wild populations. However, as small sample size in population genetics can impose significant analyti- cal limitations (Nazareno and Jump 2012), we must con- sider that the private alleles found in B. eriospatha individuals (56 % of them being rare) from the urban area may be so rare in the wild that they were not present in our sample. Nevertheless, it is equally important to point out that based on the set of microsatellite markers used here (a total of 46 alleles in the wild populations) we believe that our sample was adequate to detect low-frequency alleles. To be sure, there is no specific sample size required for such analysis; however, it is crucial for the sample to be representative of the wider population and thus it should be based on the degree of polymorphism of the genetic markers used. While we found moderate to low genetic diversity in wild B. eriospatha populations, similar to the genetic diversity reported for other palm species (Dowe et al. 1997; Shapcott 1998; Perera et al. 2000; Gonza´les-Pe´rez et al. 2004; Shapcott et al. 2009; Jian et al. 2010), the continual decrease of B. eriospatha population sizes due to illegal trade and other deterministic factors (e.g. deforestation, habitat degradation, cattle grazing) can jeopardize the genetic variation that remains. For instance, population C—one of the smallest of the populations surveyed herein—shows the lowest levels of genetic diversity (i.e., expected and observed heterozygosities), which were sig- nificantly different among all sampled wild B. eriospatha populations (Table 1). In a recent study, Nazareno and Reis (2013) compared genetic parameters between large and small B. eriospatha populations for both adult plants and seedlings. The study showed a reduction in allelic richness in small populations. Some authors (e.g., Nei et al. 1975; Cornuet and Luikart 1996) point out that allelic richness is highly affected by population reduction due to the rapid elimination of rare alleles. In the studied wild B. eriospatha populations, the genetic consequences of human activities may have led to a loss of alleles (e.g. there is just one allele on locus But18 in the G population; Table S2) and may contribute to the loss of other alleles in the near future (e.g. while allele 149 of locus But11 could be lost in the B population, in C population this allele could be fixed; Table S2). Likewise, stochastic forces such as genetic drift can contribute to the loss and fixation of alleles, mainly if the B. eriospatha populations shrink in size and become spa- tially isolated (Nazareno and Reis 2013). The loss of genetic diversity due to the threats facing this palm species is also reflected in the levels of inbreeding (i.e. fixation index) as observed in almost all of the studied wild B. eriospatha populations. Consistent with the results from the analysis of genetic diversity, the multilocus assignment exclusion-test corrob- orates the hypothesis that illegaly traded B. eriospatha individuals had varying origins. Even though we believe that our sample sizes were adequate, this result should be viewed with caution because we examined a modest number of individuals with nine microsatellite loci (HE = 0.49). For some species, Manel et al. (2002) reported a roughly con- sistent result of assignment test using eight microsatellite loci (HE = 0.60) with 30–50 individuals sampled per pop- ulation. In a recent study, Jolivet and Degen (2012), using just three microsatellite loci, could determine the origin of 448 Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 123 sapelli timber (Entandrophragma cylindricum; meliaceae) in the Congo Basin. Thus, the set of microsatellites used in our analysis may have contributed to the number of indi- viduals (n = 23) that had more than one population assigned as the origin. Even though we were able to identify the origin of the majority of the B. eriospatha individuals (n = 27 or 54 %), we emphasize that our analysis could be improved if more polymorphic loci are added. This is in line with the results of the self-assignment tests, which provided moder- ately accurate assignments, probably due to the moderate polymorphism of the microsatellite loci used herein. Therefore, in order to obtain a highly accurate assignment test of single individuals, more than nine microsatellites are required. Furthermore, the forensic analysis for this palm species can be better clarified if cytoplasmic markers (chloroplast and mitochondrial) are used alongside nuclear markers (e.g. Nazareno et al. 2011; Nazareno and Reis 2011) to develop specific DNA profiles. DNA markers such as those suggested above have been validated in other forensic analyses producing reliable results in identifying the geo- graphic origin of a specimen (Avise et al. 1987; Campbell et al. 2003; DeYoung et al. 2003; Genton et al. 2005; Schwenke et al. 2006; Gomez-Diaz and Gonzalez-Solis 2007; Velo-Anton et al. 2007; Sanders et al. 2008; Degen et al. 2013; Jolivet and Degen 2012). Although the DNA-based analysis used to determine the origin of unknown samples has been successfully applied for plant species (Deguilloux et al. 2004; Sarri et al. 2006; Honjo et al. 2008; Howard et al. 2009; Nuroniah 2009; Lowe et al. 2010; Jolivet and Degen 2012; Degen et al. 2013), there are limited discussions of their applicability for non-timber species (Howard et al. 2009; Sarri et al. 2006) and such approaches have mainly been used to study endangered species (Honjo et al. 2008). Nevertheless, encouraging results from assignment tests were reported in the analysis of the geographic origins of cultivars of the endangered species Primula sieboldii (Honjo et al. 2008). Whilst our study is not the first test case to apply molecular markers to trace the geographic origin of a plant species, it is novel in that we are attempting to identify a specific population rather than a geographic region. In light of our results, the inter-population differentiation across all pop- ulations (FST = 0.17) and the FST pairwise estimates pro- vide a moderate basis for successful assignment of B. eriospatha individuals that were illegally harvested. As stated by several authors (Cornuet et al. 1999; Manel et al. 2002; Guinand et al. 2004; Degen et al. 2010), the assignment test method is more appropriate when popula- tions are significantly differentiated (FST [ 0.1–0.2), although there was a case of highly successful Bayesian assignment tests for populations with low genetic differen- tiated on a regional scale (Jolivet and Degen 2012). Gener- ally, theaccuracy of genotype assignment procedures increases with increasing genetic differentiation among populations (Cornuet et al. 1999). For example, if a poacher claims to have obtained one B. eriospatha individual from the C population, but we believe that the individual came from the D population, an assignment test between the two populations can be easily undertaken (FST between C and D population = 0.284, Table 2). However, it can be difficult to conduct such an analysis if this individual came from the A, B or H population (FST = 0.03–0.09, Table 2) which were grouped as one unit by the cluster analysis. While the structure analysis using the Bayesian algorithm allowed us to identify this group, the low pairwise FST values also sup- ported this result. Furthermore, the lack of correlation between genetic differentiation and geographic distance suggest that an island model (Wright 1931; Maruyama 1970), rather than isolation by distance model, may best describe the population structure of this palm species. In fact, the island model is in line with the species’ distribution pattern (e.g. B. eriospatha populations cover small areas with individuals in a clustered distribution) and with their speci- ficity by habitat (highlands). However, even though the island model is biologically plausible for this palm species, the number of populations likely plays a role in shaping the population structure. As such, this issue can be better explored when samples from other populations become available. Conservation perspectives From a conservation perspective, the genetic diversity that exists in both wild B. eriospatha populations and individuals that occur in non-native settings should be preserved. Although criminal charges and fines may be appropriate to control or decrease the illegal trade of this palm species, effective conservation strategies may be more feasible if compensatory mitigation (e.g. seed collection for genetic restoration) is targeted at the purchasers of illegally-traded B. eriospatha plants. Furthermore, even though B. erio- spatha can adapt to varying local environments, its perpet- uation in introduced habitats, like the urban area of Floriano´polis, can be difficult since each individual is gen- erally isolated and surrounded by buildings, homes, or motorways. As this palm species is able to reproduce by selfing (Nazareno and Reis 2012), genetic diversity can be lost in only a few generations due to inbreeding. In addition, as previously pointed out (Clegg et al. 2002; Estoup and Clegg 2003; Kolbe et al. 2004; Frankham 2005), coloniza- tion following introduction into an area can lead to genetic bottlenecks that would further reduce genetic variation. In light of this, we emphasize that conservation strategies should be undertaken for this palm species, such as the creation of germplasm banks. Otherwise, even though there is significant genetic variation in the urban B. eriospatha Conserv Genet (2014) 15:441–452 449 123 populations, this variation will become static in a few years because these individuals will become non-reproductive. Others conservation strategies are also feasible for this species, such as the sale of adult B. eriospatha individuals that are no longer reproductive may be permitted. In this analysis we demonstrate that the use of the molecular tools such those employed herein may be useful in future investigations. However, the use of numerous, rapidly evolving DNA markers (e.g., next-generation sequencing technology) and a database containing information about allele frequencies for numerous, diverse samples of wild B. eriospatha populations are necessary in order to assess those populations severely threatened by illegal harvesting and trafficking. Since public awareness is limited, we aspire to develop a genetic database with additional geographic and genetic sampling to provide wildlife enforcement officials with a powerful conservation tool. Acknowledgments This study is part of the Doctoral Thesis (Plant Genetic Resources Program-Federal University of Santa Catarina, UFSC) of the first author. We are grateful to the Nu´cleo de Pesquisas em Florestas Tropicais (Rainforest Research Department) at UFSC for assistance during field work. 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Genetic diversity and forensic investigation of the threatened palm species Butia eriospatha Abstract Introduction Materials and methods Study species Sampling and study area Data analysis Genotyping and genetic analyses Identification of genetic units and forensic analysis Results Genetic diversity Bayesian cluster analysis Assignment tests Discussion Conservation perspectives Acknowledgments References
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