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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2399180 1 Pre-publication manuscript, Politeia, Vol 17, No 3 (1998). The New Regionalism Approach Björn Hettne & Fredrik Söderbaum Department of Peace and Development Research Göteborg University ABSTRACT This introduction outlines the dramatically changed context and content of the renewed trend towards regionalism in the international system. We start by identifying some of the most relevant aspects of the latest wave, the ‘new regionalism’. The central concepts in the study of regionalism are both ambiguous and contested, and attempts are made at clarifying them. The concept of ‘regionness’ is central to the New Regionalism Approach (NRA), which is suggested as a broad, open-ended framework for analysing regionalisation in a multilevel and comparative perspective. Several specific theories and theoretical perspectives are needed for understanding the complexities of present day regionalism, and a distinction is here made between regional and world approaches. Another distinction is that between monodisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches. Finally, the future of the new regionalism, the possibility of a regionalised world order, is touched upon. UNDERSTANDING REGIONALISM In order to understand regionalism today it is essential to realize that we are dealing with a qualitatively new phenomenon. The ‘new regionalism’ refers to a phenomenon, still in the making, that began to emerge in the mid-1980s, in contrast to the ‘old regionalism’ that began in the 1950s and faded away in the 1970s.1 Although studying the renewed trend towards regionalism sometimes involves a feeling of déjà vu, both the context and the content of regionalism have changed dramatically. It is important to point out that the old regionalism must be understood within a particular historical context, dominated by the bipolar Cold War structure, while the 1 Needless to say, regionalism existed before the 1950s. Some authors see the protectionist trends in the 1930s as the first wave. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2399180 2 current wave of regionalism needs to be related to the current transformation of the world. That is, the new regionalism is associated with or caused by a multitude of often interrelated structural transformations of the global system, the most important being: • the change of the bipolar Cold War structure and alliance systems towards a multipolar (or perhaps tripolar) structure, with a New International Division of Power (NIDP) ; • the relative decline of American hegemony in combination with a more positive attitude on the part of the USA towards regionalism, at least in the form of ‘open regionalism’; • the restructuring of the global political economy into three major blocs: the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the Asia-Pacific, which are all based on different forms of capitalism; • the erosion of the Westphalian nation-state system and the growth of economic, social and political interdependence and transnationalism, which has triggered new patterns of interaction both among governments and non-state actors; • the associated ‘globalisation’ of finance, trade, production and technology, which has lead to a New International Division of Labour (NIDL); • the recurrent fears over the stability of the multilateral trading order hand in hand with the growing importance of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade; and • the end of ‘Third Worldism’ and changed attitudes towards (neoliberal) economic development and political system in the developing countries (cf. Fawcett & Hurrell 1995; Gamble & Payne 1996; Hettne, Inotai & Sunkel 1998; de Melo & Panagariya 1993; Stallings 1995). The content of the renewed trend towards regionalism touring the world today has also changed radically. The new regionalism is a truly world-wide phenomenon, that is taking place in more areas of the world than ever before. The old regionalism was generally specific with regard to objectives and content, and often had a simple and narrow focus on free trade arrangements and security alliances, whereas the number, scope, and diversity of the new regionalism has grown significantly during the last decade. The new regionalism is a comprehensive, multifaceted and multidimensional process, implying a change of a particular region from relative heterogeneity to increased homogeneity with regard to a number of dimensions, the most important being culture, security, economic policies and political regimes. The convergence along these dimensions may be a natural process or politically steered or, most likely, a mixture of the two. 3 While the old regionalism was often imposed, directly or indirectly, from above and outside, very much in accordance with the bipolar Cold War power structure, so called ‘hegemonic regionalism’, and/or as a simple copy of the European Communities (EC), the new regionalism involves more spontaneous processes, that often emerge from below and from within the region itself, and more in accordance with its peculiarities and problems. It is crucial to understand that the new regionalism is a complex process of change taking place simultaneously at the various levels of analysis: the global system level; the level of interregional relations; the internal structure of the region (including the nation-states, subnational ethnic groups and transnational microregions). It is not possible to state which of the levels that dominate, because processes at the various levels interact and their relative importance differs from one region and period to another. Much of the contemporary debate centres around the intriguing relationship between globalism and regionalism. There is a variety of perceptions and opinions on both of these two processes and how they relate to each other. There are no clear-cut answers on to what extent they are mutually supporting and reinforcing each other, or if they are incompatible and contradictory? Several studies point to the fact that the relationship tends to be symbiotic rather than contradictory (Fawcett & Hurrell 1995; de Melo & Panagariya), while others emphasise a dialectical rather than a linear relationship (Hettne, Inotai & Sunkel 1998). The only clear conclusion that can be drawn is that regionalisation and globalisation are mutually constitutive processes existing within the broader context of global system change; and that it seems that we are dealing with different layers of globalisms and regionalisms simultaneously. The increased importance of interregional relations is also characteristic of the current wave of regionalism. Since we are dealing with a world order phenomenon the behaviour of one region has an impact on the behaviour of others. The most obvious example is European regionalism, which has both provoked and promoted regionalism in other parts of the world. All the core regions, EU, NAFTA and Asia-Pacific, support interregionalism, between themselves (North-North) as well as with other regions (North-South). South-South regionalism is also likely to increasing in importance in the future. Consider for instance: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC); Asian Regional Forum (ARF); Indian Ocean Rim (IOR); and the Initiative for the Americas; the involvement of EU in Eastern Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa etc. Furthermore, in several respects trade, financial and investment flows have increased interregionally as well as intraregionally, especially in the Core. In fact, there is no evidence that these processes of integration are competitive, which may suggest thatthe new regionalism may to an extent bolster rather than impede (global and regional) multilateralism. 4 In sharp contrast to the old regionalism, which was often inward-oriented and explicitly exclusive in terms of member states, today’s regionalism is extroverted rather than introverted, which reflects the deeper interdependence of today’s global political economy. From this perspective, ‘open regionalism’ is one way of coping with global transformation, since an increasing number of states realise that they lack the capability and the means to manage such a task at the national level. In a more narrow sense, ‘open regionalism’ often refers to ‘non-discrimination’ and that it should contribute more to the process of global liberalisation and multilateralism than it detracts from it. Openness may also refer to non-exclusiveness in terms of membership of trading blocks. In practice the two latter aspects are interrelated, because exclusion matters more if membership has substantial discriminatory effects (see review by Odén; Cable and Henderson 1994). The new regionalism is simultaneously linked with nationalism and domestic factors (Axline 1994; Palmer 1992:2). Regionalism cannot be understood as a distinct alternative to the national interest and nationalism, but is often better explained as an instrument to supplement, enhance or protect the role of the state and the power of the government in an interdependent world. The nation-states today experience a lacking capacity to handle global challenges to national interests, and increasingly respond by ‘pooling sovereignty’. At the same time they give up sovereignty and may ultimately end up as semi-independent parts of a larger political community. The process of regionalisation is triggered by events on the intrastate, subnational level as well. One example is the ‘black hole’ syndrome or the disintegration of nation- states due to ethnonational mobilisation. Another less violent form of disintegration is the strengthening of microregions, a the geopolitical environment creates a more direct approach to the macroeconomy for dynamic subnational regions. As exemplified by the European experience both of these movements may be linked with the larger macroregional regionalisation process. The so called growth triangles in Southeast Asia can also be understood from this perspective (cf. Ohmae 1995). CONCEPTUALISING REGIONALISM It has proved to be notoriously difficult to agree on common and compatible conceptualisations and definitions in the study of regionalism, old as well as new, within as well as between academic disciplines. Although these problems certainly cannot be solved here, we will explain how the central concepts are used in the New Regionalism Approach (NRA), which guides the analyses included in this special issue . 5 ‘Regionalism’ refers to the general phenomenon as well as the ideology of regionalism, i.e. the urge for a regionalist order, either in a particular geographical area or as a type of world order. There may thus be many regionalisms. ‘Regionalisation’ generally denotes the (empirical) process, and furthermore, implies an activist element, a strategy of regionalisation. It is therefore crucial to recognise that there can be regionalism (in the narrow sense as ideology) without a corresponding process of regionalisation, and vice versa. From this follows also that there is nothing inherently ‘good’ about regionalism and regionalisation from a normative point of view, although this often may be the case in the current world order. The process of regionalisation can be described in terms of increasing levels of ‘regionness’, i.e. the process whereby a geographical region is transformed from a passive object to a subject with capacity to articulate the interests of the emerging region. The concept of regionness, which is a central component of NRA, is useful for understanding some of the logic of contemporary processes of regionalisation in the world today. It provides also a basic framework for comparing emerging regions. Regionness can be understood in analogy with ‘stateness’ and ‘nationness’ (Hettne 1993). Before elaborating further on this concept, the definition of ‘regions’ needs to be clarified. ‘Regions’ are obviously important to the study of regionalism. Given that regions necessarily involve a geographical dimension, the main task of identifying regions implies making judgements about the degree to which a particular area in various respects constitutes a distinct entity, which can be distinguished as a territorial subsystem (in contrast with non-territorial subsystems) from the rest of the international system, i.e. its degree of what we call regionness. It is important to conceive regional organisation as a second order phenomenon, compared to processes that underlie regionalisation in a particular geographical area, which should be seen as ‘region in the making’. Becoming rather than being is thus what is focused upon in this context. It should be noted that there are no ‘natural’ or ‘given’ regions, and what is referred to as a region with regard to economic relations may not always be a relevant delimitation seen from, for instance, a political perspective. It is therefore fruitful to maintain eclectic and open-minded definitions of regions, particularly in the lower stages of regionness and as far as their outer boundaries are concerned, which often tend to be the most blurred. There are thus many varieties of regions, with different degrees of regionness. This eclectic understanding of regions is made possible by the fact that the problematique of the NRA is not the delineation of regions per se, but rather to determine the role of regions in the current global transformation and analyse the origins, dynamics, and consequences of regionalism in various fields of activity; i.e. increasing and decreasing levels of regionness. 6 When different processes of regionalisation in various fields converge within the same area, the distinctiveness of the region in question — i.e. the level of regionness — increases. Regionness means that a region can be a region ‘more or less’ and the level of regionness can both increase and decrease. There are three generalised levels or stages of regionness, which can be said to define a particular region in terms of regional coherence. Since a ‘region’ is a social construct, constantly created and recreated in the process of global transformation, it can only be identified post factum. It is therefore only potential in the first stage. The actual regionalisation process takes place in stage two, whereas stage three shows the outcome in terms of actually existing regional formations, such as the EU (so far the only one on this higher level of regionness). Mostly when we speak of regions we actually mean regions in the making, and we cannot be sure about the outcome. • In the ‘pre-regional’ stage, the potential region constitutes a geographical and social unit, delimited by more or less natural physical barriers and marked by ecological characteristics: ‘Europe from the Atlantic to the Ural’; ‘Africa south of the Sahara’; Central Asia; or ‘the Indian subcontinent’. This level can be referred to as a ‘proto- region’, or a ‘pre-regional zone’. The region as social system implies ever widening translocal relations between human groups, which in an early phase may be based on symbolic kinship bonds rather than trust and contract relations. The social relations may thus very well be hostile and completely lacking in cooperation, i.e. the region being a conflict formation or a ‘security complex’. The potential region, just like the larger international system of which it gradually forms part, can therefore on a low level of ‘regionness’be described as anarchic, where a balance-of-power, or some kind of ‘concert’, tends to be the sole security guarantee. We can therefore talk of a ‘primitive’ region, exemplified by the Balkans today. • The second level — which is the stage where the crucial regionalisation process takes place — could start with either ‘formal’, intergovernmental regional cooperation/state- promoted regional integration or ‘informal’, spontaneous, market- and society-induced processes of regionalisation, in any of the cultural, economic, political or military fields, or in several of them at the same time. It is in fact this multidimensionality that defines the new regionalism. The more organised region could be called the ‘formal region’. In order to assess the relevance and future potential of a particular regional organisation, it should be possible to relate the ‘formal region’ (e.g. defined by regional cooperation/integration and/or organisational membership) to the more spontaneously formed ‘real region’, which has to be defined in terms of potentialities and through less 7 precise criteria such as market- and society-induced regionalisation, regional convergencies and regional identity. (These concepts will be further elaborated upon below.) • The outcome of the regionalisation process, i.e. the third level of regionness, is the region as acting subject with a distinct identity, institutionalised actor capability, legitimacy, and structure of decision-making, in relation with a more or less responsive regional civil society, transcending the old state borders. In security terms the reference is to ‘security community’, which means that the level of regionness makes it inconceivable to solve conflicts by violent means, between as well as within former states. With regard to development and welfare, the regional sphere is not merely reduced to a ‘market’, but there exist also regional mechanisms that can ensure social security and regional balance, with similar functions as in the old states. The region as civil society may emerge spontaneously, but is ultimately dependent on that an enduring organisational framework facilitates and promotes security, social communication and convergence of values and actions throughout the region. A shared cultural tradition — an inherent regional civil society — in a particular region is often of importance here, particularly for more informal forms of regionalisation. However, it must be remembered that culture is not given, but continuously created and recreated. The defining element is rather the multidimensional and voluntary quality of regional interaction, and the societal characteristics indicating an emerging regional society. The processes shaping the ‘formal’ and ‘informal region’ are similar to state-formation and nation-building, and the ultimate outcome could be a ‘region-state’, which in terms of scope and cultural heterogeneity can be compared to the classical empires, but in terms of political order constitutes a voluntary evolution of a group of formerly sovereign national, political units into a supranational security and development community, where sovereignty is pooled for the best of all. Moreover, authority, power and decision-making are not centralised but layered and decentralised to the local, micro- regional, national and supranational levels. This is basically the idea of the EU as outlined in the Maastricht Treaty. These three levels (or ‘stages’) may express a certain evolutionary logic. Various stages are in fact a plausible explanation of the development of regionalism historically. However, the idea is not to suggest a stage theory, because there is nothing deterministic or inherently evolutionary about regionalism. On the contrary, since regionalisms are political and social projects, devised by human actors in order to transform or alter existing structures, they may, just like nation-state projects, fail. 8 Furthermore, increased interdependence may very well be the source of conflict. As the European experience shows, integration and disintegration go hand in hand. The result may very well be reduced levels of regionness, and a situation dominated by conflict rather than cooperation and where other dynamics dominate, such as globalisation, nation-building and fragmentation. Regionalism (in the broad sense) covers too many phenomena to be useful as an analytical tool, and should therefore be broken down into specific categories. Drawing on recent literature2, we will distinguish analytically between: (i) intergovernmental regional cooperation and state-promoted regional integration; (ii) market- and society- induced regionalisation; (iii) regional convergence and coherence; and (iv) regional identity. ‘Intergovernmental regional cooperation’ refers to an open-ended process, whereby individual states act together for mutual benefit in certain fields, such as infrastructure, water, energy etc., and in order to solve common tasks. It must thus be understood from the perspective of the interests of the individual member states. Intergovernmental regional cooperation may be formal and involve a high degree of institutionalisation, but may also be based on a much looser and ‘informal’ structure. It constitues one component of all regionalisation processes analysed in this issue. ‘State- promoted regional integration’ is a deeper form of joint action, which refers to a process whereby the individual states voluntarily merge and mingle, wholly or partly, into a single regional economy and political system (cf. Nye 1987). State-promoted regional economic integration refers mainly to the policies designed to abolish barriers to the mutual exchange of goods, services, capital and people. Regional integration in the political sphere involves a minimum degree of transfer of sovereignty or functions to supranational organs.3 Although regional cooperation and integration should be analytically distinguished, the borderline is in practice both ambiguous and rather artificial, which is the main reason why they are brought together under the same. 2 There exists no commonly agreed conceptualisation of the various aspects of regionalism (although the narrower agenda of the old regionalism tended to be somewhat more consistent). Many scholars try to capture similar phenomena, but they rarely use the same terminology and not seldom incompatible definitions. In order to avoid this trap we will build on what is one of the best conceptualisation to date, namely by Andrew Hurrell (1995). Also confer Cable and Henderson (1994), Gamble and Payne (1996), Hettne and Inotai (1994), Hettne, Inotai and Sunkel (1998). 3 Supranationality contains several aspects, e.g. the by-passing or transferring of member states’ decision- making authority, implementation of rules and functions traditionally exercised by the government, or the judicial authority etc. 9 Conventionally the study of regionalism has focused on intergovernmental (and supranational) structures and economic sectors while many non-governmental and transnational processes beyond and below the ‘state’, particularly civil societies, have been largely ignored. ‘Market- and society-induced regionalisation’ refers to the growth of the often undirected processes of societal and economic interaction and interdependence (Hurrell 1995:39). For obvious reasons, this type of regionalisation may be affected by intergovernmental regional cooperation and state-promoted regional integration, but it is crucial to analytically separate the processes from one another. Often this distinction is not made. The actors and driving forces of the latter is obvious while in the former they come from markets, private trade and investment flows, networkof private firms, transnational corporations (TNCs), transnational business networks, people, NGOs and other types of social networks contributing to the formation of a transnational regional economy and civil society. ‘Regional convergence and coherence’ is also needed in order to understand the process of increasing regionness. As Hurrell (1995:44) points out, this phenomenon can be understood in two main ways: (i) when the region plays a defining role in the relations to the rest of the world; and (ii) when the region serves as the organising basis across a wide range of issues within the region. There are of course different paths to regional convergence and coherence. Besides explanations at the regional level of analysis, it may occur either as a consequence of structural transformation at the systemic level or by way of separate processes of convergence, homogenisation and elimination of extremes in terms of structure and behaviour at the domestic level. For instance, it is clear that the economic and political systems on the African continent has converged and become more compatible during the era of structural adjustment, irrespectively of whether this is the result of domestic policy convergence or externally imposed conditionalities, or by way of regional cooperation and integration. This convergence and homogenisation of economic policies may pave the way for further regionalisation in both a formal and a spontaneous way, thus reflecting the interlinkages between the various processes. ‘Regional identity’ is a contested concept. However it cannot be ignored and plays a much more significant role in the new regionalism compared to the old. It is thus evident that many parts of the world have seen a marked increase in regional awareness and regional identity. This shared perception of belonging to a particular community can be explained by internal (domestic and regional) as well as external factors, in response to the Other. To a certain extent, all regions are ‘imagined’, subjectively defined and cognitive constructions. There is also an inherent ‘sameness’ in many regions chaped by pre-Westphalian empires and civilizations. In order to be successful, regionalisation necessitates a certain degree of homogeneity or compatibility of culture, identity and fundamental values. We do not know how strong these enlarged ‘imagined 10 communities’ are, and how much internal crises and resurgent nationalism they can withstand. The European example exemplifies this tension between levels of identity. THEORISING REGIONALISM The previous two sections illustrate the pluralism and multidimensionality of contemporary regionalism. From this follows that theorising similarly has to be a rather pluralistic exercise. The NRA suggests that the theoretical approaches which start from the region must be complemented (but not replaced) by world approaches, from the ‘outside-in’, and the monodisciplinary by interdisciplinary approaches. The NRA seeks to integrate three previously more or less isolated theoretical perspectives: (i) Theory of International Relations/International Political Economy; (ii) Development Theory; and (iii) Regional Integration Theory. It has been frequently stated above that the new regionalism is in different ways linked to global structural change and globalisation, and can therefore not be understood merely from the point of view of the single region in question. As Hurrell (1995:71) has pointed out, there is now a recognition that the theories of regional integration that dominated the old regionalism in general and the analysis of the European Communities (EC) in particular provide only an incomplete and partial guide to understanding the new regionalism. The resurgence of regionalism is now deeply connected with the broader theoretical debate within IR/IPE. The study of international politics makes little sense in isolation from global economic issues. We know that we are living in a global market, but what is less clear is what constitutes world order; i.e. the political framework for the world economy similar to what the state provided for what previously were ‘national economies’. The study of world order (a study increasingly focusing on world order changes) can be said to constitute the distinct contribution of IR/IPE to social science, and consequently to Development Theory. Similarly, the study of world order makes little sense if not related to ‘development’. However, Development Theory as a state-centric concern today lacks relevance and needs to be merged with IR/IPE, which, on the other hand, in turn would be enriched by the more dynamic and normative concerns central to classical Development Theory, and in particular Alternative Development Theory. Such a merger may ultimately strengthen an emerging ‘critical political economy’, dealing with historical power structures at various levels of analysis, emphasizing contradictions in them, as well as change and transformation expressed in normative terms (Cox 1996). This much needed focus on history is an escape from unchanging transhistorical theory, 11 artificially imposed on an ever changing reality, and characterizing what still is mainstream international IR/IPE Theory. The basic argument is that certain strands within IR/IPE in combination with certain strands in Development Theory provide a base from which to start global theorizing. The proposed marriage would address the problem of the ‘lack of emancipatory content in international theory’ (Smith, Booth & Zalewski 1996). It can furthermore be described as filling a theoretical vacuum constituted by at least two problematic gaps in Development Theory. The first is between the growing irrelevance of a ‘nation-state approach’ and the prematurity of a ‘world approach’. The second is between, immanence, i.e. a theorizing about development as ‘inherent’ in history and, intention, i.e. a political will to ‘develop’, which may breed unrealistic voluntarism, particularly as development has become globalized and out of reach for the main actor, meaning the state (Hettne 1997). The missing link here is the region; as a level of analysis and as a political actor, becoming increasingly important in the emerging world order. This brings us to Regional Integration Theory. With regard to the political science perspectives on regional integration, the functionalist and neofunctionalist have been very influential in the (old) European integration debate, and to a large extent also elsewhere. The basis of cooperation for both functionalists and neofunctionalists is that cooperation should be initiated in the technical and basic functional areas. This process will then gradually spill-over within and across sectors. According to the neofunctionalists, with Haas (1958, 1964) as the leading proponent, the process would spill-over and lead to increased political integration, ultimately supranationality, and a redefinition of group identity around the regional unit. Regional organisations have received much attention and other forms of institutionalist perspectives have also play an important role in the debate. Neoliberal institutionalism departs from the assumption that increasing levels of interdependence generate increased demand for international cooperation and formal as well as informal institutions, organisations or so called international regimes, including security regimes (Keohane 1984; Rittberger 1993). Particularly the latter theoretical perspective may prove to be a good starting point for analysing regions, particuarly if the region has moved beyond the first ‘pre-regional’ stage of regionness. With regard to the political economy nexus the approach may be combined or amalgamated with the open-ended versions of regionaleconomic integration. However, apart from the fact that the institutionalist theories are culturally biased towards the West, they are heavily state-centric and tend to exaggerate the role and instrumentality of international institutions (formal and informal). Therefore theoretical perspectives that also manages to account for non-state actors and the people are 12 necessary. Therefore a constructivist perspective is also needed, particlarly if the purpose of the analysis is to get a more comprehensive understanding of contemporary processes of regionalisation and regionnness. Constructivist theorists downplay the important of materialist incentives and instrumental strategies associated with many of the theoretical perspectives outlined above and instead point at the importance of subjective aspects of identity, interests, learning, communication, shared knowledge, ideational forces as well as how cooperation and communities emerge. One particular and very influential strand of constructivism is associated with the work of Karl Deutsch (1957), who’s main proposition was that cultural interaction and communication can become so intense that a region can become a security community, which is defined as a the shared sense of belonging to a community, a sense of we-ness, including the development of diplomatic-political-military practices and behaviour, that ensure for a long time the expectation of only peaceful relations among the populations. Concerning economic integration theory, the discipline has been dominated by what can be labelled the orthodox theory of regional economic integration, which involves the creation in linear succession of increasingly more ‘advanced’ stages of economic integration, namely: free trade area, customs union, common market, economic union, complete economic union (Balassa 1961). Mainstream economists have emphasised the removal of obstacles to free movement of goods and factors of production (often within a static comparative framework) rather than focusing on positive integration which can make the region function better and the political objectives and dimensions of regionalism. However, the thinking on economic regionalism has matured as a discipline and also opened up to influences from related disciplines, such as geography, international business, political science, international political economy and international relations. This means that many observers have realised that there are many more objectives than the stimulation of trade, and a wide range of non-orthodox and dynamic economic gains are highlighted, such as e.g. increased investments in production and infrastructure and the links to trade, stability and credibility, economies of scale as well as avoiding the ‘costs of non-integration’ and the present trend of marginalization (cf. Hettne & Inotai 1994; Robson, 1993).4 The non-economic gains, primarily political objectives, are taken into account. Furthermore, economists also analyse the regions in a world-wide 4 New economic thinking realizes that the unrealistic assumptions of orthodox integration theory do not apply in the industrialized world and certainly do not apply in the developing world, thus acknowledging the presence of imperfect factor and goods markets and production structures, high transportation costs, imperfect and asymmetric information and competition, externalities, and the role of institutions etc. 13 perspective, which means that the border-line towards IPE has become blurred. Thus, the new, eclectic economic theorising on regions are both more interdisciplinary and multilevel compared to old thinking, and is in many ways consistent with the NRA outlined here. However, it is still needed to make a distinction between mainstream economic and political integration theory and the NRA. This political understanding of the new wave of regionalism, which we have labelled the NRA, is radically different from the dominant discourse among economists, which can be represented by the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions, often seated in Washington, and it may be useful to pinpoint these differences rather than debating what is the right or wrong interpretation. So much depends on the basic assumptions about, for instance, the meanings and implications of globalisation: • Whereas Washington conceives the new regionalism as a trade promotion policy, building on regional arrangements rather than a multilateral framework, for NRA regionalism is a comprehensive multidimensional package, including economic, security, environmental and many other issues. • Whereas the normative point of view of Washington is that the new regionalism at best is a second best contribution to the task of increasing the amount of world trade and global welfare, and at worst a threat against the multilateral order, regionalism according to NRA can contribute to the solving of many problems, from security to environment, that cannot efficiently be tackled on the national level. • Whereas the new regionalism according to Washington is ‘new’ only in the sense that it is a revival of protectionism, NRA sees regionalism as qualitatively new, in the sense that it can only be understood in relation to the current transformation of the world, i.e. what is often called ‘globalisation’. • Whereas the new regionalism according to Washington basically is an economic phenomenon, NRA perceives it more as a political phenomenon. • Whereas for Washington the new regionalism is a phenomenon that can be analysed through standard economic theory in general and trade integration in particular, the NRA contains an interdisciplinary framework. In view of these contrasting perspectives, what will be the future of the new regionalism? Will the world become fragmentised into introverted and potentially hostile blocs, as in the neomercantlist scenario? Or will the second wave of regionalism be as brief as the first? Will the process of globalisation then get the upper hand and create a homogenous monolithic world where history has ended? This would be the extreme neoliberal or hyperliberal scenario. Or will the world be divided into rich and 14 poor regions as in the neomarxist scenario? We believe that globalisation is a strong and in certain of its dimensions irreversible force, but that it will be significantly modified by regional formations in defence of social order and attempts at political control over the market, attempts that never will succeed but nevertheless will make a difference. Thus there will be a gap between regions that succeed to a large extent, and those that fail completely to organise themselves. How to conceive the world then? In spite of the current wave of post-structuralist thinking in international relations theory, it still makes sense to analyse the world as a structural system, i.e. a system defined by certain regularities and rigidities in the relations among its constituent units. FORECASTING REGIONALISM What is new with the world system today is that various structural positions, as a consequence of transnationalisation processes and domestic changes, can increasingly be defined in terms of regions rather than nation-states. The emerging global power structure will thus increasingly be defined by the world regions. To clarify this pattern, we shall to some extent fall back upon ‘good old’ dependency theory and the familiar division of the world into Centre (or Core) and Periphery. However, this is a dependency analysis at a stage of higher integration and interdependence of the world, where the ‘delinking’ option is ruled out in any other way than involuntary marginalisation. This makes it important to understandthe nature of the emerging regional formations both in the North and in the South. A rough distinction can be made between three structurally different types of regions: regions in the Core zone, regions in the Peripheral zone and, between them, regions in the Intermediate zone. The latter are situated in an ambivalent position, which means that they can move in both directions; they can achieve Core status or become peripheralised. Regions are transformed in accordance with structural changes and, consequently, they can move from one zone to another. How do these types of regions then differ from each other in structural terms? There are two basic characteristics. The regions will be distinguished by their relative degree of internally generated economic dynamics and by their relative political stability. These characteristics also reflect an underlying higher level of regionness, and thus constitute criteria by which regionalisation, at least in a qualitative sense, can be measured. At the same time regionalism — in terms of development and security — 15 will become the obvious strategy to reduce the structural gap between Periphery and Core; i.e. to move from the Peripheral to the Intermediate zone. • Regions in the Core zone: North America, Europe and East Asia centred on Japan, are economically more advanced and normally growing economically. They also have stable — if not always democratic — regimes which manage to avoid interstate as well as intrastate conflicts. They organise for the sake of being better able to control and get access to the rest of the world with respect to resources and markets. Thus they will have an impact rather than being impacted upon. The predominant economic philosophy in the Core will remain ‘free-tradism’, which therefore also, with varying (and perhaps decreasing) degrees of conviction, will be preached throughout the world, as the only game in town. As always has been the case, the stronger economies will demand access to the less developed in the name of free trade, although they themselves often maintain protection towards the latter . • Regions in the Intermediate zone are in many cases closely linked to one or the other of the Core regions in the sense that they both have strong economic relations with a particular Core and try to imitate its policies. This is the case of South America, Central Europe and South East Asia, wheras South Asia and Africa are drifting. The former are under ‘core guidance’. They will thus, if they are lucky, gradually be incorporated into the Core, as soon as they fully conform to the criteria of ‘core-ness’; i.e. sustained economic development and political stability. This means that ‘politics of distribution’ probably will be thrown on the historical dustbin. The expression used both in South East Asia and Latin America is ‘open regionalism’, which means open economies, albeit with some preference for one’s own region, as well as a rather precautionary attitude as far as the Core regions’ assumed adherence to free trade is concerned. However, to this category we also count regions which are losing their comparative and competitive advantages in terms of robust economies and stable political regimes. Their level of regionness will decrease, which means that they are threatened to become peripheralised. • Regions in the Peripheral zone, in contrast, will continue to be politically turbulent and economically stagnant. War, domestic unrest, and underdevelopment constitute a vicious circle which will make them sink to the bottom of the system, creating a zone of war and starvation. Consequently they will have to organise in order to arrest a threatening process of marginalisation and peripheralisation. At the same time, their regional arrangements are necessarily as fragile and ineffective as their states, and — this weakness notwithstanding — they must first of all tackle acute poverty and domestic violence. Their overall situation thus makes ‘security regionalism’ and ‘developmental regionalism’ more important than the rather irrelevant creation of preferential trade regimes, or even adhering to ‘open regionalism’, which becomes 16 relevant only as some strength vis-à-vis the rest of the world has been achieved. They are necessarily more interventionist. This is what lies behind the protectionist (‘stumbling bloc’) interpretation of the new regionalism. Finally a word on the transformation of this world order into a less unequal and explosive structure. Regional integration implies a security dimension, which is quite essential to the dynamics of the integration process. By security regionalism, we refer to attempts by the states and other relevant actors in a particular geographical area — a region in the making — to transform a security complex with conflict-generating interstate relations towards a security community with cooperative relations. Thus a higher level of regionness implies a lower degree of conflict, whereas decreased regionness leads to an increase in security problems. The new regionalism may also provide solutions to development problems. By development regionalism we refer to concerted efforts from actors (i.e. state, market and civil society) within a geographical area to increase the economic development of the region as a whole and to improve its position in the world economy. Development regionalism is a relatively new phenomenon. It contains the traditional arguments for regional cooperation of various relevance for different actors, such as territorial size, population size, and economies of scale, but, more significantly, also add some which are expressing new concerns and uncertainties in the current transformation of the world order and world economy, such as resource management, peace dividend, social security, investment and finance, stability and credibility etc. The traditional (orthodox) arguments for regional (economic) integration and cooperation hardly suffice since even a firm implementation would make little difference. There is a vicious circle, where conflict and underdevelopment feed on each other. But the circle, if reverted, can also become positive. Regional cooperation for development would reduce the level of conflict and the peace dividend facilitate further development cooperation. Regional peace thus becomes a comparative advantage in an integrating but turbulent world economy, a factor usually disregarded by economists. Security and development form one integrated complex, at the same time as they constitute two fundamental imperatives for regionalism and increasing regionness. Thus, political will and political action will play their part in breaking the vicious circle of uneven globalization, regional conflict, underdevelopment and human insecurity. BIBLIOGRAPHY Axline, Andrew W (ed) 1994. The Political Economy of Regional Cooperation. Comparative Case Studies. London: Pinter Publisher. 17 Balassa, Bela, 1961. The Theory of Economic Integration. London: Allen & Unwin. Cox, Robert, 1996. Approaches to World Order. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Fawcett, Louise & Andrew Hurrell (eds) 1995. Regionalism in World Politics. Regional Organization and International Order. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Gamble, Andrew & Anthony Payne (eds) 1996. 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Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience. Princeton: Princeton UP. Keohane, Robert O 1984. After Hegemony. Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. de Melo, Jaime & Arvind Panagariya (eds), 1993. New Dimensions in Regional Integration. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Nye, Joseph 1987. Peace in Parts. Integration and Conflict in Regional Organization. Boston: Little, Brown & Company. (1971). Ohmae, Kenichi, 1995. The End of the Nation State. The Rise of Regional Economies. London: HarperCollins. Palmer, Norman D 1991. The New Regionalism in Asia and the Pacific. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. Rittberger, Volker (ed) 1993. Regime Theory and International Relations. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Robson, Peter, 1993. ‘The New Regionalism and Developing Countries’. Journal of Common Market Studies 31 (3): 329-48. 18 Smith, Steve, Booth, Ken & Marysia Zalewski (eds) 1996. International theory: positivism & beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Stallings, Barbara (ed) 1995. Global Change, Regional Response: The New International Context of Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. _______________________ Professor Björn Hettne & Fredrik Söderbaum Department of Peace and Development Research Göteborg University P.O.BOX 700 SE-405 30 Göteborg Sweden E-mail: B.Hettne@padrigu.gu.se & F.Soderbaum@padrigu.gu.se
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