Economia de Francisco Eixo modelo economico e suas incongruências 02

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I CURSO DE EXTENSÃO SOBRE A ECONOMIA DE CLARA E FRANSCISCO NA ARQUIDIOCESE DE MARINGÁ
MÓDULO 4 - O MODELO ECONÔMICO E SUAS INCONGRUÊNCIAS – PARTE 2
Professor Mateus Ramalho Ribeiro da Fonseca
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Modelo Macroeconômico Atual
O modelo de políticas macroeconômicas atual atende a quais anseios?
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado”
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Contas Públicas
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1. Piora nas contas públicas
Furar o teto de gastos (EC 95/2016)
Alterar o período de correção do teto para sincronizar com o período de correção das despesas;
E reduzir o montante a ser pago com os precatórios em 2022.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Dívida Bruta do Governo Central
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Dívida bruta do governo geral (milhões)	43466	43497	43525	43556	43586	43617	43647	43678	43709	43739	43770	43800	43831	43862	43891	43922	43952	43983	44013	44044	44075	44105	44136	44166	44197	44228	44256	44287	44317	44348	44378	44409	5302682.2699999996	5336549.58	5430959	5479642.9000000004	5480569.4800000004	5498994.8300000001	5540964.8700000001	5617716.1100000003	5580374.8499999996	5549355.5099999998	5602290.2199999997	5500104.1600000001	5550452.0999999996	5611015.1799999997	5758363.3300000001	5817892.3600000003	5929085.1500000004	6153523.8300000001	6210041.6600000001	6389754.5	6533712.3600000003	6574653.3300000001	6558571.3099999996	6615755.2000000002	6670267.0599999996	6744244.1200000001	6721063.1399999997	6665275.1500000004	6696353.7800000003	6729562.3899999997	6797927.9500000002	6849857.4800000004	Dívida bruta do governo geral (% PIB) - Eixo da Direita	75.400000000000006	75.459999999999994	76.61	76.98	76.39	76.48	76.63	77.349999999999994	76.39	75.569999999999993	75.98	74.260000000000005	74.66	75.16	76.930000000000007	78.36	80.48	83.61	84.42	86.93	88.68	89.12	88.6	88.83	89.08	89.36	87.83	85.3	84.05	83.22	83.06	82.66	
Uma ponte para o futuro ou uma pinguela para o precipício? 
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – EC 95/2016
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – EC 95/2016
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Congelamento do gasto público por 20 anos (exceto o gasto com juros da dívida pública) indexando o gasto do ano seguinte apenas pela inflação medida pelo IPCA
Revisão do teto de gastos em 10 anos.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado”
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2. Câmbio depreciado
No cenário pessimista da consultoria Tendências, o aumento da incerteza dos investidores com a economia brasileira deve provocar uma nova rodada de desvalorização do real, fazendo com que o câmbio possa encerrar este ano em R$ 5,80. Em 2022, deve ir a R$ 6,20.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado”
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"Se o país entrar num cenário de expansão do gasto público, sem as devidas reformas que conseguiriam alavancar a economia ao longo do tempo, a gente volta a questionar a sustentabilidade das contas públicas", afirma Alessandra.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Taxa de Câmbio (R$/US$)
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1 - Taxa de câmbio - Livre - Dólar americano (venda) - diário - u.m.c./US$	43467	43468	43469	43472	43473	43474	43475	43476	43479	43480	43481	43482	43483	43486	43487	43488	43489	43490	43493	43494	43495	43496	43497	43500	43501	43502	43503	43504	43507	43508	43509	43510	43511	43514	43515	43516	43517	43518	43521	43522	43523	43524	43525	43530	43531	43532	43535	43536	43537	43538	43539	43542	43543	43544	43545	43546	43549	43550	43551	43552	43553	43556	43557	43558	43559	43560	43563	43564	43565	43566	43567	43570	43571	43572	43573	43577	43578	43579	43580	43581	43584	43585	43587	43588	43591	43592	43593	43594	43595	43598	43599	43600	43601	43602	43605	43606	43607	43608	43609	43612	43613	43614	43615	43616	43619	43620	43621	43622	43623	43626	43627	43628	43629	43630	43633	43634	43635	43637	43640	43641	43642	43643	43644	43647	43648	43649	43650	43651	43654	43655	43656	436	57	43658	43661	43662	43663	43664	43665	43668	43669	43670	43671	43672	43675	43676	43677	43678	43679	43682	43683	43684	43685	43686	43689	43690	43691	43692	43693	43696	43697	43698	43699	43700	43703	43704	43705	43706	43707	43710	43711	43712	43713	43714	43717	43718	43719	43720	43721	43724	43725	43726	43727	43728	43731	43732	43733	43734	43735	43738	43739	43740	43741	43742	43745	43746	43747	43748	43749	43752	43753	43754	43755	43756	43759	43760	43761	43762	43763	43766	43767	43768	43769	43770	43773	43774	43775	43776	43777	43780	43781	43782	43783	43787	43788	43789	43790	43791	43794	43795	43796	43797	43798	43801	43802	43803	43804	43805	43808	43809	43810	43811	43812	43815	43816	43817	43818	43819	43822	43823	43825	43826	43829	43830	43832	43833	43836	43837	43838	43839	43840	43843	43844	43845	43846	43847	43850	43851	43852	43853	43854	43857	43858	43859	43860	43861	43864	43865	43866	43867	43868	43871	43872	43873	43874	43875	43878	43879	43880	43881	43882	43887	43888	43889	43892	43893	43894	43895	43896	43899	43900	43901	43902	43903	43906	43907	43908	43909	43910	43913	43914	43915	43916	43917	43920	43921	43922	43923	43924	43927	43928	43929	43930	43934	43935	43936	43937	43938	43941	43943	43944	43945	43948	43949	43950	43951	43955	43956	43957	43958	43959	43962	43963	43964	43965	43966	43969	43970	43971	43972	43973	43976	43977	43978	43979	43980	43983	43984	43985	43986	43987	43990	43991	43992	43994	43997	43998	43999	44000	44001	44004	44005	44006	44007	44008	44011	44012	44013	44014	44015	44018	44019	44020	44021	44022	44025	44026	44027	44028	44029	44032	44033	44034	44035	44036	44039	44040	44041	44042	44043	44046	44047	44048	4404	9	44050	44053	44054	44055	44056	44057	44060	44061	44062	44063	44064	44067	44068	44069	44070	44071	44074	44075	44076	44077	44078	44082	44083	44084	44085	44088	44089	44090	44091	44092	44095	44096	44097	44098	44099	44102	44103	44104	44105	44106	44109	44110	44111	44112	44113	44117	44118	44119	44120	44123	44124	44125	44126	44127	44130	44131	44132	44133	44134	44138	44139	44140	44141	44144	44145	44146	44147	44148	44151	44152	44153	44154	44155	44158	44159	44160	44161	44162	44165	44166	44167	44168	44169	44172	44173	44174	44175	441	76	44179	44180	44181	44182	44183	44186	44187	44188	44189	44193	44194	44195	44196	44200	44201	44202	44203	44204	44207	44208	44209	44210	44211	44214	44215	44216	44217	44218	44221	44222	44223	44224	44225	44228	44229	44230	44231	44232	44235	44236	44237	44238	44239	44244	44245	44246	44249	44250	44251	44252	44253	44256	44257	44258	44259	44260	44263	44264	44265	44266	44267	44270	44271	44272	44273	44274	44277	44278	44279	44280	44281	44284	44285	44286	44287	44291	44292	44293	44294	44295	44298	44299	44300	44301	44302	44305	44306	44308	44309	44312	443	13	44314	44315	44316	44319	44320	44321	44322	44323	44326	44327	44328	44329	44330	44333	44334	44335	44336	44337	44340	44341	44342	44343	44344	44347	44348	44349	44351	44354	44355	44356	44357	44358	44361	44362	44363	44364	44365	44368	44369	44370	44371	44372	44375	44376	44377	44378	44379	44382	44383	44384	44385	44386	44389	44390	44391	44392	44393	44396	44397	44398	44399	44400	44403	44404	44405	44406	44407	44410	44411	44412	44413	44414	44417	44418	44419	44420	44421	44424	44425	44426	44427	44428	44431	44432	44433	44434	44435	44438	44439	44440	44	441	44442	44445	44447	44448	44449	44452	44453	44454	44455	44456	44459	44460	44461	44462	44463	44466	44467	44468	44469	44470	44473	44474	44475	44476	44477	44480	44482	44483	44484	44487	44488	44489	44490	44491	3.8595000000000002	3.7683	3.7627000000000002	3.7061999999999999	3.7208000000000001	3.6930999999999998	3.6869000000000001	3.7141000000000002	3.726	3.7048999999999999	3.7197	3.75910	00000000001	3.7486000000000002	3.7705000000000002	3.7614999999999998	3.7993999999999999	3.7814999999999999	3.7625999999999999	3.7675999999999998	3.7370000000000001	3.7151000000000001	3.6518999999999999	3.6694	3.6756000000000002	3.6741000000000001	3.7019000000000002	3.7193000000000001	3.7183999999999999	3.7391000000000001	3.7296	3.7277	3.7755999999999998	3.7155	3.7315999999999998	3.7206000000000001	3.71	3.7595000000000001	3.7429999999999999	3.7284999999999999	3.7595000000000001	3.7351000000000001	3.7385000000000002	3.7831999999999999	3.8302999999999998	3.8487	3.8677999999999999	3.8460999999999999	3.81293.8264999999999998	3.8327	3.8344	3.8111000000000002	3.7761999999999998	3.7896999999999998	3.7967	3.8815	3.8769999999999998	3.8645999999999998	3.9388999999999998	3.9681999999999999	3.8967000000000001	3.8681999999999999	3.8660999999999999	3.8435999999999999	3.8713000000000002	3.8622000000000001	3.8658000000000001	3.8563000000000001	3.8344999999999998	3.8399000000000001	3.8685	3.8730000000000002	3.8913000000000002	3.9224999999999999	3.9369999999999998	3.923	3.9436	3.9630000000000001	3.9725000000000001	3.9352999999999998	3.9363999999999999	3.9453	3.9649999999999999	3.9388000000000001	3.9624000000000001	3.988	3.9344000000000001	3.9672999999999998	3.9578000000000002	3.9889999999999999	3.9788000000000001	4.0030999999999999	4.0137999999999998	4.0843999999999996	4.1055999999999999	4.0810000000000004	4.0228000000000002	4.0513000000000003	4.0321999999999996	4.0209999999999999	4.0274999999999999	3.9965000000000002	3.972	3.9407000000000001	3.9003000000000001	3.871	3.8611	3.872599999999999	8	3.8571	3.879	3.8664000000000001	3.8437000000000001	3.8429000000000002	3.8813	3.8895	3.8607999999999998	3.8723000000000001	3.8254999999999999	3.8233999999999999	3.8302999999999998	3.8441000000000001	3.8641999999999999	3.8321999999999998	3.8193000000000001	3.8563999999999998	3.8475000000000001	3.794	3.8203999999999998	3.8065000000000002	3.7858000000000001	3.7696999999999998	3.7532999999999999	3.7452000000000001	3.7463000000000002	3.7624	3.7618	3.7488999999999999	3.7408000000000001	3.74	3.7621000000000002	3.7595999999999998	3.7848999999999999	3.7740999999999998	3.7909000000000002	3.79	3.7648999999999999	3.8296000000000001	3.8738999999999999	3.9403999999999999	3.9643000000000002	3.9849999999999999	3.9409000000000001	3.9361999999999999	3.9965999999999999	3.9735999999999998	4.0073999999999996	4.0187999999999997	3.9933000000000001	4.0274000000000001	4.0425000000000004	4.0254000000000003	4.0444000000000004	4.0850999999999997	4.1367000000000003	4.1557000000000004	4.1558999999999999	4.1680000000000001	4.1384999999999996	4.1581000000000001	4.1657000000000002	4.1249000000000002	4.0858999999999996	4.0650000000000004	4.0766	4.1108000000000002	4.0631000000000004	4.0494000000000003	4.0616000000000003	4.0872	000000000002	4.0998000000000001	4.0972	4.1393000000000004	4.1687000000000003	4.1734	4.1721000000000004	4.1826999999999996	4.1468999999999996	4.1586999999999996	4.1643999999999997	4.1740000000000004	4.1546000000000003	4.1012000000000004	4.0609999999999999	4.0688000000000004	4.0868000000000002	4.0953999999999997	4.1144999999999996	4.1059999999999999	4.1262999999999996	4.1487999999999996	4.1714000000000002	4.1456999999999997	4.1375999999999999	4.1318999999999999	4.0857999999999999	4.0720999999999998	4.0088999999999997	4.0133000000000001	3.9792999999999998	3.9946000000000002	4.0186000000000002	4.0041000000000002	3.9786000000000001	3.9922	4.0042999999999997	4.0350999999999999	4.0926999999999998	4.1364999999999998	4.15589999	99999999	4.1756000000000002	4.1767000000000003	4.1830999999999996	4.1826999999999996	4.2084000000000001	4.2037000000000004	4.2012	4.1832000000000003	4.2088999999999999	4.2558999999999996	4.2602000000000002	4.2480000000000002	4.2240000000000002	4.2260999999999997	4.2008000000000001	4.1925999999999997	4.2135999999999996	4.1783000000000001	4.1502999999999997	4.1426999999999996	4.1153000000000004	4.1092000000000004	4.0949	4.0800999999999998	4.0686999999999998	4.0548000000000002	4.063	2999999999999	4.0777000000000001	4.0757000000000003	4.0812999999999997	4.0601000000000003	4.0545	4.0307000000000004	4.0307000000000004	4.0213000000000001	4.0522	4.0553999999999997	4.0841000000000003	4.0671999999999997	4.0743999999999998	4.0744999999999996	4.1308999999999996	4.1443000000000003	4.1622000000000003	4.1726000000000001	4.1837	4.1829000000000001	4.2013999999999996	4.1889000000000003	4.1661999999999999	4.1768999999999998	4.2195999999999998	4.2064000000000004	4.2012999999999998	4.2523	4.2694999999999999	4.2474999999999996	4.2381000000000002	4.2449000000000003	4.2477	4.3075999999999999	4.3194999999999997	4.3148	4.3365999999999998	4.3388999999999998	4.3163	4.3156999999999996	4.347	1000000000002	4.3727999999999998	4.3872999999999998	4.3924000000000003	4.4359000000000002	4.4763999999999999	4.4987000000000004	4.4946000000000002	4.4882999999999997	4.5258000000000003	4.6207000000000003	4.6459000000000001	4.7378999999999998	4.6692999999999998	4.6738	4.8833000000000002	4.7362000000000002	4.9470999999999998	5.0495999999999999	5.1106999999999996	5.1444000000000001	5.0247999999999999	5.0804999999999998	5.0712999999999999	5.0705999999999998	5.0010000000000003	5.1109	5.1	593999999999998	5.1986999999999997	5.2404000000000002	5.2651000000000003	5.2996999999999996	5.2470999999999997	5.2217000000000002	5.2122999999999999	5.0778999999999996	5.1824000000000003	5.1858000000000004	5.2579000000000002	5.2377000000000002	5.2572999999999999	5.2836999999999996	5.3846999999999996	5.4466999999999999	5.6509999999999998	5.6357999999999997	5.5682999999999998	5.4291	5.4269999999999996	5.5815999999999999	5.5354000000000001	5.6676000000000002	5.8365	5.7652999999999999	5.7953999999999999	5.7723000000000004	5.9021999999999997	5.9371999999999998	5.8228999999999997	5.7374999999999998	5.7215999999999996	5.6967999999999996	5.6018999999999997	5.5808	5.4771999999999998	5.3707000000000003	5.2991999999999999	5.34049	99999999996	5.4263000000000003	5.3639000000000001	5.2601000000000004	5.0515999999999996	5.1040999999999999	4.9775	4.9330999999999996	4.9057000000000004	4.8894000000000002	5.0373000000000001	5.1882999999999999	5.1284999999999998	5.2499000000000002	5.3468	5.3465999999999996	5.2225999999999999	5.1704999999999997	5.2435	5.3287000000000004	5.4629000000000003	5.4416000000000002	5.476	5.365	1	5.3028000000000004	5.3373999999999997	5.3085000000000004	5.3318000000000003	5.3482000000000003	5.2977999999999996	5.3440000000000003	5.3486000000000002	5.4287999999999998	5.3491	5.3559999999999999	5.351	5.3635000000000002	5.2282999999999999	5.1111000000000004	5.1646999999999998	5.2145999999999999	5.1889000000000003	5.1776999999999997	5.1395	5.1837	5.2032999999999996	5.3075000000000001	5.3329000000000004	5.2759999999999998	5.3430999999999997	5.4226999999999999	5.3933	5.4284999999999997	5.4550999999999998	5.3800999999999997	5.3852000000000002	5.4497	5.4659000000000004	5.4905999999999997	5.6509999999999998	5.6063999999999998	5.5953999999999997	5.5997000000000003	5.5679999999999996	5.5956	000000000001	5.4679000000000002	5.4713000000000003	5.3731999999999998	5.3741000000000003	5.3079000000000001	5.2847999999999997	5.3697999999999997	5.3023999999999996	5.2935999999999996	5.2854000000000001	5.2984	5.2728000000000002	5.2531999999999996	5.2592999999999996	5.2888999999999999	5.444	5.4329000000000001	5.5311000000000003	5.5713999999999997	5.5667	5.5857999999999999	5.6528	5.6406999999999998	5.6440999999999999	5.6463999999999999	5.	6299000000000001	5.5205000000000002	5.6017999999999999	5.62	5.5392999999999999	5.5858999999999996	5.5674999999999999	5.6172000000000004	5.6226000000000003	5.6022999999999996	5.5830000000000002	5.6006	5.5819999999999999	5.6120000000000001	5.6327999999999996	5.6490999999999998	5.7324999999999999	5.7803000000000004	5.7717999999999998	5.6894999999999998	5.6932	5.5624000000000002	5.5312999999999999	5.2820999999999998	5.3696000000000002	5.4020000000000001	5.4093999999999998	5.4854000000000003	5.4198000000000004	5.3967999999999998	5.2931999999999997	5.3330000000000002	5.3505000000000003	5.3827999999999996	5.4036999999999997	5.3507999999999996	5.3201000000000001	5.3494000000000002	5.3316999999999997	5.2789000000000001	5.226700	0000000001	5.1624999999999996	5.1706000000000003	5.1017999999999999	5.0919999999999996	5.1109	5.0852000000000004	5.0690999999999997	5.0578000000000003	5.0968	5.1056999999999997	5.0612000000000004	5.0986000000000002	5.1571999999999996	5.1473000000000004	5.1740000000000004	5.18	5.2389999999999999	5.1942000000000004	5.1966999999999999	5.1966999999999999	5.1626000000000003	5.3269000000000002	5.3182	5.3433000000000002	5.3682999999999996	5.4965999999999999	5.46370000000000025.3070000000000004	5.2617000000000003	5.271399999999999	9	5.2788000000000004	5.2945000000000002	5.3033000000000001	5.3166000000000002	5.4301000000000004	5.5088999999999997	5.3864999999999998	5.3823999999999996	5.4282000000000004	5.4759000000000002	5.4607999999999999	5.3875000000000002	5.3422999999999998	5.391	5.3883999999999999	5.367	5.4215999999999998	5.4024000000000001	5.3625999999999996	5.3815	5.4138000000000002	5.4238	5.3924000000000003	5.5044000000000004	5.4489999999999998	5.4181999999999997	5.46	5.5301999999999998	5.5831999999999997	5.6844000000000001	5.7342000000000004	5.6007999999999996	5.6870000000000003	5.7343000000000002	5.8396999999999997	5.7449000000000003	5.5890000000000004	5.5640000000000001	5.6295999999999999	5.5850999999999997	5.6578999999999997	5.5473999999999997	5.5082000000000004	5.5269000000000004	5.4950999999999999	5.5330000000000004	5.6585000000000001	5.7042000000000002	5.7925000000000004	5.7641999999999998	5.6973000000000003	5.6848999999999998	5.6578999999999997	5.6262999999999996	5.5864000000000003	5.5816999999999997	5.6444999999999999	5.6581999999999999	5.7064000000000004	5.6936	5.6234000000000002	5.6327999999999996	5.5750000000000002	5.5266000000000002	5.4969999999999999	5.4786999999999999	5.4565999999999999	5.4424000000000001	5.4005000000000001	5.3662000000000001	5.4036	5.4086999999999996	5.4504999999999999	5.3	872	5.2896999999999998	5.2217000000000002	5.2226999999999997	5.2403000000000004	5.2352999999999996	5.2815000000000003	5.2701000000000002	5.2755000000000001	5.2587999999999999	5.2821999999999996	5.2904999999999998	5.3026999999999997	5.3197999999999999	5.3143000000000002	5.3163999999999998	5.2839999999999998	5.2281000000000004	5.2321999999999997	5.1635999999999997	5.1147	5.0666000000000002	5.0498000000000003	5.0488999999999997	5.0533000000000001	5.0635000000000003	5.1189999999999998	5.0707000000000004	5.0873999999999997	5.0206999999999997	5.0358999999999998	5.0313999999999997	5.0373000000000001	5.0178000000000003	4.9519000000000002	4.9276999999999997	4.9206000000000003	4.9420000000000002	4.9450000000000003	5.0022000000000002	5.0054999999999996	5.0293000000000001	5.0749000000000004	5.1645000000000003	5.2328000000000001	5.2587000000000002	5.2393000000000001	5.2239000000000004	5.1769999999999996	5.0880000000000001	5.0999999999999996	5.0941000000000001	5.1978	5.2465000000000002	5.2515999999999998	5.1978	5.1700999999999997	5.1863000000000001	5.1669	5.1527000000000003	5.0682	5.1215999999999999	5.1379000000000001	5.2464000000000004	5.2091000000000003	5.1463999999999999	5.2409999999999997	5.2774000000000001	5.2217000000000002	5.2012999999999998	5.2351000000000001	5.2473999999999998	5.2495000000000003	5.2584999999999997	5.3025000000000002	5.4180000000000001	5.4273999999999996	5.3685999999999998	5.3017000000000003	5.2465000000000002	5.2428999999999997	5.22	5.1951999999999998	5.1433	5.1576000000000004	5.1734999999999998	5.1684999999999999	5.1772999999999998	5.2523999999999997	5.2824999999999998	5.2157999999999998	5.2190000000000003	5.226	5.2576000000000001	5.2594000000000003	5.3102999999999998	5.3331999999999997	5.3044000000000002	5.2782999999999998	5.2891000000000004	5.3434999999999997	5.3478000000000003	5.4206000000000003	5.4173	5.4394	5.3910999999999998	5.4203999999999999	5.4611000000000001	5.5096999999999996	5.5140000000000002	5.5084	5.5160999999999998	5.5471000000000004	5.4988000000000001	5.4509999999999996	5.5193000000000003	5.5521000000000003	5.5571000000000002	5.6422999999999996	5.7117000000000004	
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” - Inflação
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3. Inflação em alta
O real depreciado tem um impacto direto na inflação.
Hoje, o Brasil lida com um quadro inflacionário bastante difícil. No acumulado de 12 meses até setembro, o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) chegou a 10,25%. Foi a maior taxa anula desde fevereiro de 2016.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – IPCA em 12 meses (%)
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43466	43497	43525	43556	43586	43617	43647	43678	43709	43739	43770	43800	43831	43862	43891	43922	43952	43983	44013	44044	44075	44105	44136	44166	44197	44228	44256	44287	44317	44348	44378	44409	44440	3.78	3.89	4.58	4.9400000000000004	4.66	3.37	3.22	3.43	2.89	2.54	3.27	4.3099999999999996	4.1900000000000004	4.01	3.3	2.4	1.88	2.13	2.31	2.44	3.14	3.92	4.3099999999999996	4.5199999999999996	4.5599999999999996	5.2	6.1	6.76	8.06	8.35	8.99	9.68	10.25	
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Meta de Inflação
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Juros SELIC
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4. Juros em alta
Com a escalda da inflação, o Banco Central vai ser obrigado a aumentar ainda mais a taxa básica de juros, atualmente em 6,25%.
Juros em alta encarecem o investimento para as empresas e o consumo para as famílias, dificultando o crescimento econômico.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Lema do BCB
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Garantir a estabilidade do poder de compra da moeda, zelar por um sistema financeiro sólido, eficiente e competitivo, e fomentar o bem-estar econômico da sociedade.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Meta de Inflação
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Juros SELIC
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"A gente trabalha com a hipótese de que o Banco Central vai acelerar o ritmo de alta de juros na próxima reunião para 1,25 ponto percentual", diz Elisa, da ARX Investimentos.
Ao fim deste ano, ela avalia que a Selic deve chegar a 8,75% ao ano, subindo a 10.5% em 2022.
"É inequívoco que a gente viu uma mudança no regime fiscal, e a política monetária tem de se ajustar a isso", diz Elisa. "Se o BC não ajusta a política monetária, o que a gente vai ver, além da alta da inflação corrente por causa de câmbio, é um processo de desancoragem de expectativas."
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Mercado Internacional
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5. Piora do cenário externo
Nas economias avançadas, a inflação também se mostra persistente, o que pode fazer com que os principais bancos centrais do mundo aumentem os juros antes do esperado. Com o estrago provocado pela pandemia, as autoridades monetárias de vários países reduziram os juros para estimular a economia.
Juros mais alto em economias avançadas têm potencial para atrair recursos aplicados em mercados emergentes, como o brasileiro.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Mercado Internacional
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"Há uma preocupação dos principais bancos centrais com a persistência da inflação, e o risco desse movimento contaminar as expectativas", afirma Alessandra, da Tendências. "Há um ambiente mais difícil lá fora e esse processo de alta de juros pode ser antecipado."
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Reservas Internacionais (bilhões US$)
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43466	43497	43525	43556	43586	43617	43647	43678	43709	43739	43770	43800	43831	43862	43891	43922	43952	43983	44013	44044	44075	44105	44136	44166	44197	44228	44256	44287	44317	44348	44378	44409	44440	376.98399999999998	378.44799999999998	384.16500000000002	383.79899999999998	386.16199999999998	388.09199999999998	385.73	386.47800000000001	376.43400000000003	369.83600000000001	366.37599999999998	356.88400000000001	359.39400000000001	362.46	343.16500000000002	339.31700000000001	345.70600000000002	348.78100000000001	354.6639999999999	9	356.09199999999998	356.60599999999999	354.54599999999999	356.00400000000002	355.62	355.416	356.07	347.41300000000001	350.99599999999998	353.44799999999998	352.48599999999999	355.67099999999999	370.39499999999998	368.88600000000002	
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Motivo do estresse do mercado
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Retaliação do mercado
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Retaliação do mercado
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SÃO PAULO – A semana foi bastante conturbada para o Ibovespa, com o índice fechando em queda de 7,28%, a pior do período desde março de 2020. Com isso, o valor de mercado das companhias que fazem parte do índice tiveram uma queda de R$ 273,24 bilhões, passando de R$ 4,027 trilhões no fechamento de sexta passada (15) para R$ 3,753 trilhões no fechamento desta sexta (22), de acordo com levantamentofeito pela consultoria Economática.
Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Retaliação do mercado
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Retaliação do mercado
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"Tirar o teto de gasto e precatórios com limitações podem ser entendidos como abertura de porteira para mais gastos ineficientes, tendo em vista as próximas eleições polarizadas de 2022. Vamos perder a âncora, sem colocar nada no lugar", afirmou Alvaro Bandeira, economista-chefe do banco Modalmais.
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Modelo macroeconômico voltado ao “mercado” – Algumas perguntas importantes
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O que realmente importa para o mercado?
Como o Estado brasileiro reage a esse comportamento do mercado?
Estado pro-mercado ou pro-social?
Constituição de 1988???
Objetivos das políticas macroeconômicas.
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Mateus Ramalho Ribeiro da Fonseca
Graduação em ciências econômicas pela Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Mestrado em Teoria Econômica pela Universidade Estadual de Maringá e Doutorado em Economia, com ênfase em desenvolvimento econômico, pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul.
Email: mateusramalho88@Hotmail.com