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KIANA DANIAL How to Apply Ichimoku Kynko Hyo to Develop Winning Trading Strategies Based on Your Risk Tolerance CEO OF INVEST DIVA “This is a MUST-READ for any trader looking to make better, faster trading decisions.” – Rob Booker, Trader Radio ICHIMOKU secrets How to Apply Ichimoku Kynko Hyo to Develop Winning Trading Strategies Based on Your Risk Tolerance KIANA DANIAL CEO OF INVEST DIVA ICHIMOKU SECRETS How to Apply Ichimoku Kynko Hyo to Develop Winning Strategies The Japanese Way to Trading Success Copyright © 2016 by Invest Diva, KPHR Capital, LLC. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. There is no guarantee that you will earn any money using the techniques and ideas in materials, or the advice found in this book. The information contained in this book is strictly for educational and informational purposes. Nothing contained in this book constitutes financial, legal, tax or other professional services advice. While best efforts have been used in preparing this book, the author and publisher make no representation or warranties of any kind and assume no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use for a particular purpose. Neither the author nor the publisher shall be held liable or responsible to any person or entity with respect to loss or incidental or consequential damages caused, or alleged to have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the information or programs contained herein. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. Every financial services company, investment advisor, or broker-dealer is different and the advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. All trademarks used in this book remain property of their respective holders, and are used only to directly describe the products being provided. Proofread by: Ken Darrow, M.A. Charts prepared on: Trading Station, TradingView “This is a must-read for any trader looking to make better, faster trading decisions. Kiana has written the definitive guide to profiting from the Ichimoku Kynko Hyo - in a clear, step-by-step format that is perfect for beginners or even advanced traders. She not only shares some incredibly effective trading strategies - but she also explains the simple market psychology for why the strategies work.” – Rob Booker, Host, Trader Radio “This isn’t just a book, it's a recipe and blueprint for changing your trading fortune. It breaks down the Ichimoku strategy for all, from short term traders to long term investors, and combines it with your specific risk tolerance and financial goals. This is something most trading courses fail to do, and it's the reason why most traders lose money. Kiana’s approach will not only teach you how to trade with confidence, it will also teach how to significantly improve your odds of a successful trade. A must read for all serious traders.” – Maia Loloi, Property Manager “Kiana does an excellent job of breaking down the Ichimoku indicator in a simple, easy to understand format. She dives deep into the history of Ichimoku and how to apply it to your trading. Regardless of whether you are a new trader, experienced trader, or somewhere in- between this is a must read. It is the closest thing to a “holy grail” I have seen when it comes to the Ichimoku indicator.” – Trent Hoerr, Head of Sales Forest Park FX What People Are Saying “If you're a technical trader, the Ichimoku strategy is a proven method having success in the markets. And if you want to understand how Ichimoku works, this book is all you need. Kiana breaks Ichimoku down in a way that's easy to understand, from entry and exit points, to using it for different types of charts. Overall a great read that takes a concept that can be complicated and makes it easy to digest.” ̶ Spencer Israel, Editor, Producer at Benzinga “I don’t make a single investing move without Kiana’s guidance! It is amazing how I only make money when Kiana has approved the strategy during our private lessons.” – Melissa Ward, Single Mom "Financial markets are not easy to understand, and often you can make mistakes and lose money. It’s extremely difficult to find an expert to trust and follow for trading strategies. Kiana is one of those rare experts who not only is a great trader, but also has the ability to explain complicated techniques in simple terms. In this book Kiana has distilled the Ichimoku technique so anyone can learn it and implement it in their trading strategy based on their risk tolerance. A bonus on top of all this is that Kiana is also a hilarious entertainer. After you are done with this book, you should check out her videos explaining trading concepts, learn from it and also have a laugh or two. Kiana, congratulations for all your success in teaching people how to make money by trading.” – Carmelo Imerti, Technical Analyst "Kiana is excellent at explaining interesting and complex market phenomena in clear, useful, and approachable ways for traders and investors." – Chris Meyer, Clinical Assistant Professor, Fordham University, Fordham Foundry "We all have people we idolize. For me it's Kiana Danial. Her story is amazing and very empowering to women all over the world!" – Ina Kocibelli, FX Trader “A MUST READ for all traders interested in making money like a pro! I first met Kiana after I attended one of her live webinars and have continued to be impressed by her teaching themes and explanations. I have referred many clients to her and they’re all very pleased and impressed on how much they learned in a short period of time. With a firm but friendly demeanor, Kiana manages to keep execute excellency not only in her education courses, but also in her books.” – Michael Vega, Business Development at DriveWealth LLC “Invest Diva breaks down a sophisticated Ichimoku trading strategies that can help the traders at any level understand and apply to their own portfolio. Highly recommended to all technical chartists!” – Fan Yang, CEO at FXTimes.com “Kiana has done a tremendous job of simplifying a powerful yet commonly misunderstood indicator. Intermediate to experienced traders will find this book of great value if they are looking to adjust their medium to long term strategies to fit specific risk tolerances.” – Ilan Azbel, CEO at AutoChartist “Kiana Danial has a real knack for breaking down a complex subject into understandable and practical building blocks so that once an investor finishes reading ICHIMOKU secrets, they will have a clear Ichimoku trading model to follow. Kiana’s successful trading career gives the book substance and is a must read for any serious investor.” – Jody Samuels, CEO, FX Trader’s EDGE “Kiana’s market analysis is always based on empirical, unbiased study and she adheres to the golden rule of trading: “follow the data”. If you want to increase your level of success in trading, follow Kiana!” – Jay Norris, Founder, Trading University To my awesome husband, who not only gives me unwavering support, but who also puts up with my workaholism. I love you with all my heart. Thank you for being so amazing. To my late father-in-law who gave me the idea for the name of this book right before he passed away. We love you and we miss you. To my wonderful mom and dad who always believe in me. Contents Introduction Chapter 1 – What Is Ichimoku? • Fundamentals of Ichimoku • Terminology • General Interpretation • Calculations, 9, 26 52 Format • Should You Change the Format? Chapter 2 – Using Ichimoku as an Entry Signal • TheTrigger • The Confirmation • Bullish Market Confirmation: High, Medium, Low Risk • Bearish Market Confirmation: High, Medium, Low Risk Chapter 3 – Using Ichimoku as an Exit Signal • Using the Cloud to Exit Bearish Positions • Using the Cloud to Exit Bullish Positions • Using Ichimoku as a Stop-Loss Chapter 4 – Using Ichimoku on Different Time Frames • The Big Secret • Ichimoku on Monthly Chart • Ichimoku on Daily Chart • Ichimoku on 4-Hour Chart • Ichimoku on 1-Hour Chart Chapter 5 –Ichimoku – Fibonacci Combo • Combining Ichimoku with Fibonacci after a Downtrend and an Uptrend • Risk Management Chapter 6– Case Studies About the Author INTRODUCTION Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (一目均衡表) is one of my favorite indicators in technical analysis. I initially learned about it first- hand from the Japanese. Over my years of technical analysis and trading, and teaching courses at Invest Diva, in Japan and in universities in New York, this one indicator has proven to be one of the best predictors of future movements, especially as a key part of medium to long-term investment strategies. After enrolling in the NYU School of Professional Studies to become a Certified Financial Planner, I started thinking of methods to combine Ichimoku interpretations with Fibonacci retracement levels to create strategies based on traders’ risk tolerance and financial goals. What you will learn in this book are real examples of Ichimoku based strategies that have and have been successful in the past. You must know that some Wall Street insiders and professional traders are irritated by that fact that I’ve put the Ichimoku Secrets out in the world. There are many components to Ichimoku; however, only the combination of a few components has been my main secret to trading success… Up until now only premium Invest Diva students have had access to this. I am going to reveal it to you in this book. From Ichimoku to Trading Success 10 I will cover the best time frames to use Ichimoku, as well as best practices and combinations with Fibonacci retracement levels to develop a strategy that best suits your risk tolerance and financial goals. So, without further ado, let’s get into what the heck Ichimoku is, and how you can apply it to your trading strategy. 11 WHAT IS ICHIMOKU? CHAPTER ONE FUNDAMENTALS OF ICHIMOKU Understanding Ichimoku Kynko Hyo Ichimoku is short for Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which can be translated as “a glance at a chart in balance”. A Japanese journalist called Goichi Hosoda invented this charting technique in 1936, and since then Ichimoku charts have become a popular trading tool in Japan. Of course, love at first sight can be complicated. But once you get to know it, magic can happen. Before we reveal the chart, let’s prevent a major brain meltdown by first introducing the stuff you are going to see on your chart when you insert Ichimoku onto it. Figure 1.1 13 http://investdiva.com/?action=signup&mlad&urname 雲 Kumo or Cloud 基準 Kijun or Base line 転換 Tenkan or Turn line 遅行 Chiko or Delay “ Your eyes are going to get used to this, and after one day you will feel that a chart without Ichimoku is totally naked. “ Now we are going to add all these lines and moving averages to our trading chart. Don’t panic; your eyes are going to get used to this, and after one day you will feel that a chart without Ichimoku is totally naked. TERMINOLOGY Japanese to English 14 First let’s do basic introduction, and then jump into the interpretation of Ichimoku and all the secrets you need to know. Figure 1.2 Kijun line (base line in solid, thick pink color). This is the average of the highest high and the lowest low within the past 26 candles. We can also call it the “slow line” because it reflects a whole 26 periods. Tenkan line (turn line, solid, thin black color). This is the average of the highest high and the lowest low within the past 9 candles. We can also call this the “fast line” because it reflects less periods. Chiko (sometimes spelled chikou) span (delayed line, thick, dashed blue color). This shows the most recent candle’s price, but it is drawn 26 periods behind. 15 http://investdiva.com/?action=signup&mlad&urname Kumo (cloud). This is the area between two lines that plots the future! The first thin, dotted line is calculated by averaging the tenkan line and the Kijun line plotted 26 periods ahead. The second one is determined by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past 52 periods plotted 26 periods ahead. These two lines are called Senkou spans. Senkou means “future”. One good thing about modern trading, including those of Forex, stocks, equities and even ETF platforms, is that you can choose different colors for each of the Ichimoku lines to make your Ichimoku indicator more colorful and to identify the lines easily. As seen in Figure 1.1, I usually like to use pink for the Kijun line, black for the Tenkan line, blue for the Chiko (Lagging) line, and light green for the Kumo (cloud). 16 GENERAL INTERPRETATION Using Ichimoku as Trading Signal Here is a cheat sheet on how Ichimoku is generally interpreted for trading signals. More Common Interpretations • As long as the five lines are parallel, the trend will continue in that direction. • When the candles are inside the Ichimoku cloud, that means that the market is in the process of consolidating, and it is not a good time to buy or sell. • The lower band of the prevailing cloud can be used as a layer of support.(See figure 1.3) • The upper band of the prevailing cloud can be used as a layer of resistance. Buy Signal Sell Signal The candles are above the cloud The candles are below the cloud Chiko span crosses above the cloud Chiko span crosses below the cloud Tenkan line crosses above the Kijun line Tenkan line crosses below the Kijun line 17 “ You can use Ichimoku cloud as layers of support or resistance. “ Figure 1.3 18 http://investdiva.com/?action=signup&mlad&urname CALCULATIONS The 9, 26, 52 Format Most trading platforms generate Ichimoku kinko Hyo on a 9, 26, 52 format calculated as below. Four of the five plots within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo are based on the average of the high and low over a given period of time. For example, the Tenkan line is simply an average of the 9-day high and 9-day low. Before computers were widely available, it would have been easier to calculate this high-low average rather than a 9- day moving average. Here is how you can do the calculation, although you really don’t have to, because your trading platform will magically do it for you. Tenkan-line (AKA Tenkan-sen, Conversion Line): (9- period high + 9-period low)/2)) The default setting is 9 periods and can be adjusted. On a daily chart, this line is the mid-point of the 9-day high-low range, which is almost two weeks. Kijun-line (AKA Kijun-sen, Base Line): (26-period high + 26-period low)/2)) The default setting is 26 periods but can be adjusted. On a daily chart, this line is the mid-point of the 26-day high-low range, which is almost one month). 19 Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Tenkan Line + Kijun Line)/2)) This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary, which helps traders with predicting future market movements. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period high + 52-period low)/2)) On the daily chart, this line is the mid-point of the 52-day high-low range, which is a little less than 3 months. The default calculation setting is 52 periods, but can be adjusted. This value is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the slower Cloud boundary. Chikou Span (Lagging Span, Delayed Span): Close plotted 26 days in the past The default setting is 26 periods, but can be adjusted. 20 While some technicalanalysts recommend changing the format based on the time frame, in my experience it is best to stick with the norm. Why? Because of the reason why an indicator works in the first place. Why do you think indicators work? What do you think they are an indication of? Indicators or any other type of technical analysis work because of market sentiment and crowd psychology. Strategists and market technicians like me research and evaluate hundreds of thousands of charts over the years and observe the habits of the market during specific periods of time. The main idea of any technical analysis tool is that “history repeats itself”. So while you can go ahead and create a new type of Ichimoku indicator with a new format over different time frames, analyze the market psychology and the accuracy of your indicator in that time frame, why reinvent the wheel? Should you change the 9, 26, 52 format? 21 To truly grasp the importance of this, you’ve got to learn something that entrepreneurs such as Russell Brunson actually learned from Tony Robbins, which is “If you want to achieve success, all you need to do is find a way to model those who have already succeeded.” After reading this story, I thought back to some of the things I’ve been successful with in my life. For instance, when I was young, I wanted to be the best piano player in the country, but the problem was that I wasn’t really that good. So, I went out there and found other pianists that were amazing. I used to watch video tapes of them, and I would model after what they did. I modeled after their moves and their training. In a very short period of time, I was able to go from being a bad pianist to being an award winning pianist, to winning in competitions in Japan. 22 So I started talking to my friend who was a pro-trader, and started to figure out how to make money by trading. A year later, I moved to New York to work on Wall Street and modeled after best strategists and, in the meantime, I developed my own strategies that I am going to share with you. There’s always someone who comes up to me and says, “You know, that’s cool, but I have figured out a better way to do it.” Or, they might say, “I came up with a new strategy that no one has ever thought of before.” They are so excited, but I always take a step back and tell them the same thing: “You can always tell who the pioneers are because they have arrows in their back and are lying face down in the dirt.” This is true if you think about it. As investors, we have so much passion and drive to share our strategies with the world. It’s a beautiful thing, but most investors run out of one of two things before they find success. They either run out of time or they run out of money. The reason why this happens is because they are trying to be creative and figure all of this stuff out. They get all of these arrows in their back, and they never reach a point where they can actually serve people and help them. That’s the problem. I have realized that I need to go and find out exactly what’s working today and start there. With that, since I have done extensive research on the 9, 26, 52 format of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo so you don’t have to, let’s get into the secrets so you don’t waste more time reinventing what has already been invented. 23 USING ICHIMOKU AS AN ENTRY SIGNAL CHAPTER TWO THE TRIGGER Introducing the Best Moments to Use Ichimoku The general Ichimoku interpretation suggests that as long as the market price is above the Ichimoku cloud, it is a bullish signal. As long as it is below the cloud, it is a bearish signal. While this could play out from time to time, the best time to use the Ichimoku cloud is the moment that the market confirms a break. If you don’t catch the moment of the breakout, you are already too late to use Ichimoku as your indicator and should move on to other methods. “ The best time to use the Ichimoku cloud is the moment that the market confirms a break. “ 25 In a trending market, the first trigger could be spotted by the Kijun and Tenkan line cross-overs. This works much like normal moving average combinations where a short- term moving average crosses a long-term moving average. In traditional usage of moving averages (MAs), as I have explained in my book “Invest Diva’s Guide to Making Money in Forex”, the cross overs are first responders to a market reversal. One popular way of using traditional moving averages is based on Joseph Granville’s technique of technical analysis—using the 200-day moving average versus the 30-day moving average to identify buy or sell signals. Golden cross: When a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, it means that the speed of the upward movement in a short period has become faster than the long-term speed. So this is a buy signal. Dead cross: When a short-term moving average breaks below the long-term moving average, it indicates that the speed of the downward movement in a short period has increased. So this is a sell signal. Initial Trigger in a Trending Market 26 http://investdiva.com/books Beware of False Signals! If you have paid attention to any of the Invest Diva education services, you probably have already gotten used to the idea that trading signals and indicators are often full of $#?*. The market participants often acts in an arbitrary fashion, ignoring all the laws and rules. That is why we should never rely on only one method of analysis and should always confirm our decisions with other tools and points of the Invest Diva Diamond Analysis (IDDA). The dead cross is so called because it originates in security trading, where when the prices go down, you are screwed and you lose money. Fortunately, in Forex trading you won’t have this problem because you can make money in both directions. Short- sellers of the stock market don’t normally consider this bearish trigger so “deadly” either. 27 Figure 2.1 Golden Cross: Initial Bullish Trigger after a Downtrend Initial Bullish Trigger after a Downtrend The Tenkan line (fast moving average) crosses ABOVE the Kijun line (slow moving average); this is the initial indicator that the market could reverse into an uptrend. 28 Initial Bearish Trigger after an uptrend The Tenkan line (fast moving average) crosses BELOW the Kijun line (slow moving average). Figure 2.2 Dead Cross: Initial Bearish Trigger after an uptrend 29 THE CONFIRMATION Approaches for Investors with High, Medium and Low Risk Tolerance It is not enough to catch the trigger on the Ichimoku cloud. You need to stay put for the confirmation, and then use it depending on your risk tolerance. So what the heck is a confirmation of a break out? There are three methods to identify a confirmation of a break out. The first one is for investors with high risk tolerance, the second one is for investors with medium risk tolerance, and the third is for investors with low risk tolerance. You can calculate your risk tolerance by attending our wealth management course, or by booking a private financial therapy session with one of our coaches at Invest Diva. In this section, I’ll break down the definition of a confirmation both in a bullish and in a bearish market. 30 Your first bullish indication is released once a strong bullish candle tests above the Ichimoku cloud. However, this is no confirmation, just an indication that you might want to keep an eye on this pair. Bullish Market Confirmation SECRET #1: Higher Risk Confirmation based on a candlestick Figure 2.3 Bullish Test above Ichimoku Cloud 31 In the above example, we not only had a confirmation above the cloud, but also a confirmation above the pivot level of 103.5, which we had previously identified based on technical analysis. After the market tests above the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud, you still need to wait for the next period candlestick to open above theIchimoku cloud. That is a signal to enter a bullish position for investors with higher risk tolerance. Figure 2.4 Bullish Candle Confirmation above Ichimoku Cloud 32 * Invest Diva Diamond Analysis is the strategy development method described in Kiana Danial’s book “Invest Diva’s Guide to Making Money in Forex” as well as Invest Diva’s award-winning education course, “Forex Coffee Break with Invest Diva.” At this point, an investor with high risk tolerance has the thumbs up from the technical point of the Invest Diva Diamond Analysis*, and can move on to the fundamental and sentimental points to back up his/ her trading strategy. 33 http://investdiva.com/books https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 For investors who have medium risk tolerance, we recommend waiting until after the first confirmation candlestick is completed. Normally, at this stage, we see a temporary pullback based on crowd psychology, which gives you a great entry point; you already have the confirmation of the Ichimoku cloud, but choose to wait for the optimal time to buy at a lower price. SECRET #2: Medium Risk Confirmation based on candlestick pullback Figure 2.5 Pullback after Confirmation above Ichimoku Cloud 34 The reason we recommend this approach to investors with medium risk tolerance is because sometimes, the pullback doesn’t occur and it could be a missed opportunity for high risk investors. This is not recommended to investors with lower risk tolerance because, after the pullback, sometimes the market dives back inside the Ichimoku cloud and changes direction temporarily; something low risk investors cannot afford in their portfolio. “ Investors with medium risk tolerance can enter a bullish position once the market has temporarily pulled back AFTER a confirmation above the Ichimoku cloud. “ 35 The ultimate confirmation for long-term traders with lower risk tolerance is triggered once the Chiko span (lagging line) also breaks above the Ichimoku cloud. Once this happens, we normally expect a trend change and a new cycle on the daily chart. This oftentimes coincides with a break above the cloud on the monthly chart as well, in which case our scenario is even stronger. SECRET #3: Lower Risk Confirmation based on Chiko span Figure 2.6 Bullish Confirmation after Chiko Span Breaks above Ichimoku Cloud 36 Note that the Chiko span, or lagging line, is shown as a dashed, blue line in Figure 2.6. Also noteworthy is that after the market first confirmed above the Ichimoku cloud, it is followed by a pullback towards the flattening Ichimoku cloud. Unable to break below the cloud, it powers through and breaks above the cloud once again; this time, dragging the Chiko span with it. With this, you understand why we recommend the first two scenarios to investors with higher risk tolerance: The markets are never 100% predictable. Even though our methods will eventually pan out, an investor with lower risk appetite will not be able to afford the market pullback in case it happens. For sure, sometimes the pullback doesn’t happen and that would be a missed opportunity for an investor with lower risk tolerance… But, hey, better lose an opportunity than lose money, eh? 37 Bearish Market Confirmation The same approaches we used in a bullish market can be used in a bearish market. However, it is important to remember that bearish market scenarios are best applicable to the Forex market. Shorting the stock market carries a substantial amount of risk, not recommended to all investors. Bearish market confirmation could also be used as a stop-loss strategy for those who intend to cut their losses short before the market fully changes direction and the losses get out of hand. Again, investors with high, medium and low risk tolerance are recommended to use different confirmation scenarios before exiting a losing position. 38 Your first bearish indication is triggered once a strong bearish candle tests below the Ichimoku cloud. This is an indication that you might want to keep an eye on the market, as a reversal may be due soon. SECRET #1: Higher Risk Confirmation based on a candlestick Figure 2.7 Bearish Test below Ichimoku Cloud 39 In this example, the market had a massive and sudden bearish pressure due to a fundamental announcement. Savvy investors would have followed the risk event as the market tested the Ichimoku cloud, in order to jump on a short position right as the market opened below the cloud. After the market tests below the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud, you still need to wait for the next period candlestick to open below the Ichimoku cloud. That is a signal to enter a bearish position for investors with higher risk tolerance. Figure 2.8 Bearish Candle Confirmation below Ichimoku Cloud 40 For investors who have medium risk tolerance, we recommend waiting until the first confirmation candlestick is completed, and then wait a little bit longer. Normally, at this stage, we see a temporary correction based on crowd psychology. If you are looking to short the market or sell, this could be the optimal time as the market has yet to reverse and you will get out just in time before the reversal occurs, at a higher price. SECRET #2: Medium Risk Confirmation based on candlestick pullback Figure 2.9 Correction after Confirmation below Ichimoku Cloud 41 In this example, the correction took place across multiple candlesticks. The reason for this could be due to the strength of the bearish candlestick, which confirmed the break below the Ichimoku cloud. Corrections normally go up to one of the Fibonacci* retracement levels, oftentimes the 50%. A common question is, how do you know when the correction is over? Sadly, there is no guarantee for this, as there is none in investing in general. Your best bet is to pick a level based on your risk tolerance, and then wait patiently until the markets balance out. * Fibonacci retracement levels are defined and practiced in Kiana Danial’s book “Invest Diva’s Guide to Making Money in Forex” as well as Invest Diva’s award-winning education course, “Forex Coffee Break with Invest Diva.” “ Patience is a profitable virtue. “ 42 The ultimate confirmation for long-term traders with lower risk tolerance is triggered once the Chiko span (lagging line, shown as a blue, dashed line in the charts) also breaks below the Ichimoku cloud. Once this happens, we normally expect a trend change and a new cycle. If you are in a bullish position when this happens, you might want to consider cutting your losses short and getting out before it’s too late. SECRET #3: Lower Risk Confirmation based on Chiko span Figure 2.10 Bearish Confirmation after Chiko Span Breaks below Ichimoku Cloud 43 As you may have noticed, this low risk bearish confirmation happened 7 periods after the correction. So while a medium and high risk investor is already making money in the bear market (if they used this indication to short the market), the low risk investor is lagging behind. However, the beauty of this is that this final trigger coincided with a break below the 50% Fibonacci level as well, which further strengthens our strategy, “ Taking lower risk could result in lower profit. However, it has an equal potential to result in lower losses. “ 44 USING ICHIMOKU AS AN EXIT SIGNAL CHAPTER THREE As briefly mentioned in Chapter two, you can use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo as an exit indication. Personally, I mainly use Ichimoku as an entry point and use Fibonacci methods to exit. However, there are important Ichimoku scenarios you need to keep in mind in case you enter based on techniques other than Ichimoku indications. 46 THE CLOUD Using the Kumo (cloud) as Your Pivot Zone The Ichimoku cloud canbe used as an important pivot zone once the market approaches it. While a breakout (above or below) the cloud can be used as an entry signal, a test or approach towards the lower/ upper band of the cloud can be used as an exit point. In a bearish position, the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud can be used as a support level. If the market fails to break below the cloud, then the cloud turns into a pivot zone. In a bullish position, the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud can be used as a resistance level. If the market fails to break above the cloud, then the cloud turns into a pivot zone. 47 Using the Cloud to Exit a Bearish Position In this example, we used an alternative strategy to enter a bearish position in the USD/CAD pair as it topped out in January 2016. We then used the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud as our profit taking limit order at 1.38. Note that the pair went on to break below the Ichimoku cloud and started a downtrend afterwards. We entered a new bearish position after exiting this one, once the market confirmed below the cloud, as explained in Chapter 2. Figure 3.1 Using the Ichimoku Cloud in an Exit Strategy 48 Using the Cloud to Exit a Bullish Position A thick downward cloud can also act as a strong resistance level when the prices are below the Ichimoku cloud. When the market has been below the cloud for a while, we have no choice but to use other points of the IDDA to enter positions, especially if we are trading using only one time frame. In the example in Figure 3.2, the GBP/JPY pair indicated a long-term bearish signal way before this chart was captured. Figure 3.2 Using the Ichimoku Cloud in an Exit Strategy 49 While based on the Ichimoku cloud’s shape and direction we can conclude that the long-term direction of the GBP/JPY is to the downside, we still can take advantage of short-term trading opportunities. Entering based on a Bullish Engulfing and Fibonacci retracement support, along with other points of the IDDA, we could set the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud as a bullish target to exit our position. Meanwhile note that our entry point on the daily chart, was exactly when the pair broke above the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. Figure 3.3 GBP/JPY Short Time Frame 50 This shows that by using different time frames you can identify short and long-term entry/ exit points. This is precisely the reason why we zoom in and out of the time frame with the IDDA approach, before making a trading decision. “ You can set an Ichimoku-based entry and an Ichimoku-based exit using different time frames. “ 51 Using the Cloud as a Stop-loss The best method to set a stop-loss is using Fibonacci retracement levels. It allows you to develop your exit strategy based on your risk tolerance rather than market fluctuations, which is a much more responsible method to trade. However, sometimes the Ichimoku cloud can help strengthen your exit strategy. In Figure 3.4, we saw an Ichimoku-based entry signal on the NZD/USD 4-hour chart. Figure 3.4 Using the Ichimoku Cloud in an Exit Strategy 52 Based on our risk-tolerance, we decided to set our bullish target at the 0.7995 level as opposed to the more moderate target and 76% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7235. Unfortunately, the market changed direction and ultimately broke below the important Fibonacci levels of 50% and 38%. Not only that, it also broke below a mostly upward- moving Ichimoku cloud, signaling the direction may have changed for good in this time frame. Here are some ideas for using the cloud as a stop-loss: To• find the stop-loss of a bullish position, wait for a break below the lower band of an upward moving cloud. A Fibonacci level below that zone could be set as your stop-loss. To• find the stop-loss of a bearish position, wait for a break above the upper band of a downward moving cloud. A Fibonacci level above that zone could be set as your bearish stop-loss. Be very careful with setting stop-losses as often times, you may get kicked out pre-maturely. Unless you have solid reversal confirmation, try to keep your stop-losses loose, and make sure your margin requirements are moderate enough to endure a loose stop-loss. 53 USING ICHIMOKU ON DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES CHAPTER FOUR This is the question I get asked the most: What is the best time frame in which to use Ichimoku Kynko Hyo? How do I use it on different time-frames? In this chapter, we will dig into different time frames and show you how you can use enter with Ichimoku within different time frames. 55 THE BIG SECRET It Works (Almost) the Same on All Time Frames I really don’t understand who started the rumor that Ichimoku Kynko Hyo behaves differently on different time frames. Just like any other form of technical analysis, Ichimoku works the same across the board. Why? Because the crowd psychology never changes. Short-term traders’ mood swings are just those of like long-term traders, only in a shorter time frame. A day trader changes from bearish to bullish way more often than a long-term investor. However, the day trader still has less mood swings than a scalper. As we see in the Elliot Waves, the markets move because of investors’ psychology, or crowd psychology. 56 The most basic principle of this theory is that market movements are based on crowd behavior. The crowd’s mood swings from optimism to pessimism, and these changes in sentiment create repetitive patterns. The market cycles and the waves do not always appear in a neat, pretty wave. Normally, each wave is made up of sub-waves, which become more visible as we zoom in from longer time frames to shorter ones. This pattern can repeat itself—well, forever! “ Ichimoku Kynko Hyo works almost the same across all time frames. However, the amount of profit, risk and false alarms on different time frames varies. “ So if you are trading on the 4-hour chart and identify an Ichimoku-based entry signal, you can go ahead and add it to your bullish strategy. However, you need to adjust your profit target and stop- loss accordingly. If you are trading on a 4-hour chart, your profit target is much lower than that of the daily chart. In the following pages, we will look at different Ichimoku strategies for the USD/CAD pair in the year 2014. 57 Ichimoku on the Monthly Chart In 2014, the USD/CAD pair finally confirmed above the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart in December. An ultra-long-term Invest Diva with high risk tolerance, can target either 1.1955 or 1.2725, expecting to reach target anywhere between 3 months and a year. This Invest Diva can set the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud, which coincides with the 23% Fibonacci level, as the stop-loss for this position. Figure 4.1 Ichimoku Bullish Signal on the Monthly Chart 58 Ichimoku on the Daily Chart In the same year, a moderately long-term Invest Diva would have identified a bullish Ichimoku signal much earlier than the ultra-long-term Invest Diva: In July 2014. This Invest Diva can decide to enter a bullish position right after the confirmation of the break above the Ichimoku cloud, at 50% Fibonacci level at 1.0933. Depending on her risk tolerance, she can target either 1.10 or 1.11, which are 61% and 76% Fibonacci levels respectively, expecting to reach target anywhere between a week and six months. Figure 4.2 Ichimoku Bullish Signal on the Daily Chart 59 Ichimoku on the 4-Hour Chart A medium-term trader could perhaps find more trading signals on the 4-hour chart … and faster too. On the 4-hour chart, a bullish Ichimoku signal was triggered on July 12th , 2014. With this, the bullish targets could be set at either 1.0754 or 1.0790 depending on risk tolerance. Stop-loss is set at 1.0633, right below the Ichimoku cloud. The medium-term trader could expect to reach target anywhere between 1 day and three weeks. Note that, while reaching target is faster on the 4-hour chart,the amount of pips earned is smaller than those of long- term Invest Divas. Figure 4.3 Ichimoku Bullish Signal on the 4-Hour Chart 60 Ichimoku on the 1-Hour Chart We are now down to one of the shortest time frames in which the Ichimoku cloud can be used. Here are some key points to remember when you decide to trade on shorter time frames, something that can be way more rewarding and way more risky than the previously discussed time frames. • You are aiming for a smaller amount of pips. Therefore it could be tempting to use a higher amount of leverage to compensate • There is more opportunity to trade. Therefore there is more opportunity to make mistakes • The shorter the time frame, the more important the shape of the cloud • A break below a rising, thick Ichimoku cloud could indicate more drops than a break below a flat or falling cloud • A break above a falling, thick Ichimoku cloud could indicate more gains than a break above a flat or rising cloud. • Targeting secondary Fibonacci tiers is not recommended for any short-term trader, regardless of their risk-tolerance “ Trading shorter time frames exposes traders to much higher risk. Buyer beware. “ 61 Now back to the example of USD/CAD in mid-2014. As you can see in figure 4.4, there is a ton of back and forth above and below the flat Ichimoku cloud, each representing a trading opportunity. The break below the flat cloud indicates a short-term bearish signal targeting the first and closest support. The break above the flat cloud indicates a short-term bullish signal targeting the first and closest resistance. While the market sometimes tests above the key primary targets, it involves high risk, especially if you are trading on high leverage. Figure 4.4 Flat Ichimoku on the 1-Hour Chart 62 However, you might have noticed that there are way more false breaks on the hourly chart compared with longer time frames. Our targets slowly upgrade as the Ichimoku cloud moves towards a specific direction. But once the pair breaks and confirms above or below the primary target other than the cloud, we can no longer rely on Ichimoku cloud signals for entry points on the 1-hour chart or any shorter time frame. The cloud at this point acts as a support (in an uptrend) and resistance (in a downtrend). However, there are other components of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo that could come to the rescue! Figure 4.5 Ichimoku Trading on the 1-Hour Chart 63 Kijun & Tenkan to the Rescue In shorter time frames, once the cloud has expired, we can turn to the Kijun and Tenkan lines as entry indication While I mentioned there is no big difference in Ichimoku trading on different time frames, perhaps the only exception is trading on shorter time frames after the cloud signal expires. The fact that short-term traders aim for smaller targets, accelerates the expiration of the Ichimoku cloud. And that is when the other components of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo come into play, specifically the Kijun line (base line) and the Tenkan line (turn line). Day trading is all about speed, and that is why the interactions of the fast and slow moving averages can sometimes reveal reversals more rapidly than the cloud. Figure 4.6 shows the USD/CAD pair on the hourly chart, when the pair has formed a definite trend. A search for a reversal is in the minds of most short-term traders. While we have other technical chart patterns indicating a reversal, the Tenkan and Kijun cross-overs validate a technical chartist’s observation. 64 On the left side of the chart in Figure 4.6, the USD/CAD pair is trading in an uptrend. It then hits a resistance level, and forms a Double Top chart pattern— first bearish reversal indication. While the pair remains above the upward moving Ichimoku cloud, the Tenkan line (black, fast moving average) crosses below the Kijun line (pink, slow moving average). This is the second bearish reversal trigger. Combine that with the bearish engulfing candlestick pattern right below the Tenkan cross-over and you’ve got yourself a bearish reversal confirmation. The first bearish target is the 23% Fibonacci level, which also falls on the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud. Figure 4.6 Tenkan & Kijun Lines Crossovers on the 1-Hour Chart 65 Once this trade is executed and we have earned our profit, we can then move on to the Ichimoku cloud strategy. And the trading strategy continues to develop on Figure 4.6: 1. The pair breaks below the Ichimoku cloud on the short time frame. We target the primary support level by entering a bearish position there. 2. The Ichimoku cloud signal expires. We look for other signals. 3. The Tenkan once again breaks below the Kijun line right at the 38% Fibonacci level, indicating further drops. We can target the next primary support level at 50% Fibonacci, entering a new bearish position. 4. Once this trade is executed with profit, there is a formation of a double bottom chart pattern indicating a bullish reversal. The Tenkan line crosses above the Kijun line confirming our new bullish outlook. The primary target is set at the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud at 23% Fibonacci. 5. Once this trade is executed with profit, we now have a confirmation of a break above the Ichimoku cloud, giving us a new bullish trading signal. We can enter that targeting the 23% Fibonacci in a bullish trade, and make even more money. 66 6. This can continue forever!! Now… Before you get too excited and decide to always trade on the 1-hour chart, remember this: It is much easier to tell the story of what has already happened in the market than to actually develop successful trading strategies. There is a lot of emotions and market noise involved when you trade with your own real money, and that is precisely the reason why even educated traders sometimes stop being rational and avoid admitting that their analysis went wrong. The most crucial practice for short-term traders on high leverage is exiting a losing trade. Trading on margin won’t give you the luxury of waiting the market out. And while almost every market corrects itself in the long run, your account could be long wiped out if you haven’t calculated your risk-tolerance and set up stop-losses properly. Another problem with trading on a shorter time frame is that you won’t have enough time to consider all the points of the Invest Diva Diamond, IDDA. And most often or not, you rely on triggers as opposed to developing a sound trading strategy. This is precisely why short-term trading is only recommended to traders with ULTRA high risk-tolerance who basically really don’t give a damn about their money. 67 ICHIMOKU- FIBONACCI COMBO CHAPTER FIVE What is the relationship between Ichimoku and Fibonacci? How can you use the Ichimoku- Fibonacci combo to develop customized strategies based on your risk tolerance? This is basically my secret ingredient in strategy development—combine the Japanese Ichimoku Kynko Hyo, with the Italian Fibonacci retracement levels, and you’ll get yourself an international winning fusion. 69 70 Combining Ichimoku with Fibonacci after a Downtrend We know a downtrend is over when the prices bottom-out. We have learned many bullish reversal patterns in the Forex Coffee Break with Invest Diva Education Course: Double Bottom, Saucer Bottom, Head and Shoulders- Bottom. You name it. And so far in this book, we have learned how a new trend is confirmed based on Ichimoku Kynko Hyo. Once you have gathered enough evidence that the market is indeed reversing to the upside, that is when you can turn to Mr. Fibonacci to set targets based on your risk tolerance. Step One Draw a Fibonacci retracement level from the highest high of the previous downtrend, to the lowest low. Step Two Confirm that the Fibonacci retracement levels fall on previously identified support, pivot, and resistance levels. Step Three Set the Fibonacci retracementlevels as your bullish target, based on your risk tolerance. http://investdiva.com/education Tada! You’ve got yourself a winning strategy … Okay I get it. The final step was a bit vague so let me elaborate. Once you have calculated your risk tolerance score (we dive into this in our Wealth Management Course and Ichimoku Secrets Course), you can target the below Fibonacci levels accordingly. However, you should keep in mind that it is not only your risk tolerance score which determines your exit strategy. You should also factor in the amount of leverage you are using, the overall health of your trading account, and how well your portfolio is hedged. • Target the first Fibonacci retracement level if … Your risk tolerance score is conservative You are planning to use high leverage Your trading account is low on usable margin You have over five active positions (in Forex trading only) 71 http://investdiva.com/education • Target the second Fibonacci retracement level if … Your risk tolerance score is moderate You are planning to use moderate amount of leverage You have moderate amount of usable margin in your account You have between three to five active positions, with repeating a currency (Forex only). For example, if you are bullish on USD in three different currency pairs, lets say, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD, and you are planning to go long the USD/CHF pair, then you should aim to take profit and close at least one of these positions at a moderate Fibonacci retracement level to avoid high risk. • Target the third Fibonacci retracement level if … Your risk tolerance score is moderately aggressive You are planning to use lower amount of leverage (between 5 and 2 in Forex) Your usable margin is in healthy territory You don’t have many active positions in Forex and are well-diversified in other assets such as stocks and ETFs. 72 73 Figure 5.1 Fibonacci Retracement Levels After a Downtrend Has Reversed Target• the fourth Fibonacci retracement level if … Your risk tolerance score is aggressive You are planning to use a maximum leverage of 2 You have no debt to your broker and your margin and equity are positive. You don’t have many active positions in Forex and are well-diversified in other assets. In Figure 5.1, the asset has completed a Double Bottom chart pattern, broken above a falling wedge and the Tenkan line has broken above the Kijun line. However, the Chiko span has yet to break above the Ichimoku cloud, and the prices are facing difficulty breaking above the cloud as well. In this case, the upper band of the cloud is acting as a strong resistance, followed by the 23% Fibonacci retracement level which in this case is our pivot level on the daily chart. A day-trader with low risk tolerance or high leverage could have considered aiming for the 23% Fibonacci level before a risk event and got out rapidly. As risk tolerance score and overall health of the trading account goes higher, and the amount of leverage goes lower, the trader could consider aiming for respective Fibonacci retracement levels AFTER the Ichimoku trigger is confirmed. One of my favorite methods is entering the position at a partial amount, and then adding on to the position as we gain confidence in our original analysis of the market. We then can use the respective Fibonacci retracement levels as stop-loss levels. Basically, the lower the risk tolerance score, or the higher the amount of leverage, the tighter your stop-loss should be. If you are not using high leverage, a stop-loss is not really necessary. 74 Personally I have kissed stop-losses goodbye for the most part. By keeping my trading account in good health and keeping my leverage at manageable amount, I buy more of the asset class once the prices go down instead of selling short. That way, the brokers who make money on my losing trades can only dream of getting their hands on my hard-earned cash. 75 76 You can follow the same exact steps mentioned previously, once you identify a bullish reversal in the market. Keep in mind that this method is most commonly used for Forex trading, as we typically would want to avoid short selling other asset classes such as stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds and bonds. Only in Forex you can trade in either direction at equal amount of risk. In Figure 5.2, the asset has completed a Double Top chart pattern, broken below the important 50% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Tenkan line has broken below the Kijun line. However, the Chiko span has yet to break below the Ichimoku cloud. The prices have recently confirmed a break below the Ichimoku cloud. Combining Ichimoku with Fibonacci after an Uptrend 77 Figure 5.2 Fibonacci Retracement Levels After an uptrend Has Reversed Traders with low, moderate and high risk tolerance could consider targeting the 61%, 76% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. Again worth mentioning here is that you should always consider the impact of the fundamentals on selecting the suitable Fibonacci level as well. In forex trading, if a high-risk event is coming up, your target should be tighter than usual. When investing in stocks using this method, you should deeply analyze the future of the company from a fundamental point of view and determine whether the recent drop in prices was simply a pull-back, or the company is going bankrupt/ has no bright future. Conversely, if you are a long-term investor in a longer-term bullish position (say on the monthly chart) and the market has turned temporarily in a shorter time-frame as seen in Figure 5.2 (daily chart), you can consider adding up to your bullish position at the above Fibonacci retracement levels to lower your average. 78 CASE STUDIES CHAPTER SIX Now that you have learned my Ichimoku secrets, it is time to look back and see how this technique has worked out for me and my Invest Diva students. In this chapter, I will be showcasing real strategies that have been published on InvestDiva.com, and the results they delivered. Following the IDDA approach, we not only analyze the price action from a technical point of view, but also the fundamentals and market sentiment to conclude on a trading strategy according to the trader’s risk tolerance. 80 GBP/JPY Confirms above Ichimoku Cloud This article was published on November 15th, 2016 on investdiva.com. Starting with technical analysis, we identified an Ichimoku-based bullish signal, which was backed up by other technical points as well. After a long year and a half dancing under the shadow of a falling cloud, finally GBPJPY confirms above Ichimoku cloud. Successfully. And by that I mean we have strong technical verifications of this on at least two different time frames. However, with all the uncertainty and major economic events out of the UK this week, do the other points of the IDDA agree? It's time to find out. Figure 6.1 GBP/JPY Breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud 81 http://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=gbpjpy-confirms-above-ichimoku-british-pound Technical Analysis Daily Chart: It's been a hard year for Mr. British Pound and Brexit added to his pressure. As the Japanese yen got stronger, acting as a safe haven on global uncertainty, GBP did the opposite. The GBP/JPY officially broke below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart in December 2015 and since then saw nothing but down ... until it hit the support of 125. While this pair doesn't include the US dollar, the US election results did have an indirect impact on it. The Japanese yen got weaker across the board, and that is when we saw the first big push towards the Ichimoku cloud on November 9th. The pair broke above the pivot of 129.50. The next day it broke above the upper band of a symmetrical triangle. After that it broke above the Ichimoku cloud. And on Monday November 14th, it officially confirmed the break. However,even though we have a number of concrete bullish signals just on the daily chart, the only downside to this is that there is a very good chance that this is a FALSE BREAK. GBP/JPY has done it before. There is no reason it won't do it this time. That is why we need the pair to break above the long-term 23% Fibonacci retracement level at 140.15 before we conclude a long-term reversal. Monthly Chart: Here is where things get interesting. On the monthly chart, as seen in Figure 5.2, we have yet another huuuuge bullish signal as the pair formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. 82 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 Fundamentals What went down: The fundamentals aren't as positive for Mr. Pound as the technicals. It is quite mixed so far actually. Even though the pair still hasn't completed the cycle back to the lows of 2012, this could be a sign that the pair might have decided to end the cycle a bit early (which is completely understandable in the Forex world) and reverse the direction, especially considering the fact that this very thing happened in 2009, at the EXACT same level. Figure 6.2 GBP/JPY Forms Bullish Engulfing on Monthly Chart 83 First and foremost, UK CPI missed expectations on Tuesday. However, Bank of England (BOE) governor Carney said that the central bank now has a neutral stance on monetary policy, and that it is not actively considering expanding its QE program. This is good news for Mr. British Pound. On the other hand, and as the world seems to be get cues from leaked material, we have leaked memos regarding Brexit that may also impact Mr. British Pound. According to a November 7 th memo obtained and then leaked by The Times and republished by Reuters, Theresa May’s government is divided on Brexit. And because of the said division, “no common strategy has emerged” in how to approach Brexit negotiations. If the rumors are true and we have at least 6 months for Brexit to finalize, or maybe even two years, the GBP crosses could take a break from the pressure and move up a bit. However, a spokesman for Theresa May has said that the leaked memo, “has no authority.” I guess only time will tell on this one, eh? What's up next: During the London session on Wednesday, the UK Jobless Claims Change (OCT) will be out at 9:30 AM GMT. The claimant count change, which measures the difference in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits from one month to the next, is expected to show a 1.9K rise in joblessness for October. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. 84 On Thursday, UK Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT) will be out at 9:30 AM GMT. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in consumer spending. A stronger than expected reading could be enough to assure Invest Divas that the Brits are keeping calm and carrying on with their purchases, which could be enough to to give us a fundamental thumbs up on our bullish scenario for GBP/JPY. Market Sentiment According to one of the largest Forex brokers in the US, 46% of traders were bullish on GBP/JPY on Tuesday. Long positions are 2.5% lower than Monday and 22.3% below levels seen last week. We use this as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but is unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias. Trading Strategy Putting the technical, fundamental and sentimental points of the IDDA approach together, the medium-term bullish strategy seems to have a reasonable risk-reward ratio. Bullish Scenario: Depending on your risk tolerance, you could consider targeting 140.15 as this week's UK fundamental volatility unfolds. A break above this level could open doors for further gains towards 38% Fibonacci level at 149. 85 http://investdiva.com/ https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 https://education.investdiva.com/forex-coffee-break-with-invest-diva-education-coursew0js78v1 Bearish Scenario: A break back below the Ichimoku cloud would change our outlook back to bearish with 125 as first alternative target. 86 GBP/JPY Trading Result, November 23, 2016 At the time of writing this book, the pair reached our first bullish target to the final digit on November 23rd 2016, within less than 6 trading days. Since you are reading this book after this date (unless you are a time traveler), it is now your turn to check your GBP/JPY chart and check how our long-term strategy panned out. How would you have traded the GBP/JPY? How long would you stay in the trade? Figure 6.3 GBP/JPY Reaches Target at 140 on November 23rd 87 NZD/JPY Confirms above Ichimoku Cloud and Triangle Chart Pattern This article was published on October 19th, 2016 on investdiva.com. After the third and last presidential debate in the US, NZDJPY confirms above Ichimoku cloud while USD/JPY heads back towards it. How can we put the politics and crowd psychology together to develop a winning trading strategy? Let's take an IDDA approach to find out. Technical Analysis Figure 6.4 NZD/JPY Breaks above Ichimoku Cloud 88 http://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=nzdjpy-confirms-above-ichimoku-cloud-triangle Medium Time Frame The NZD/JPY pair broke above the Ichimoku cloud and above a triangle chart pattern on the daily chart on Wednesday. This could signal further bullish moves towards a medium-term target of 75.75— the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and an important resistance. The pivots remain on the Ichimoku cloud and 73.45 and 72.50, as we have discussed in our Facebook group. Long Time Frame On the monthly chart, NZDJPY remains inside a thick, upward-moving cloud, indicating a long-term consolidation. Fundamentals While we are looking at New Zealand and Japanese currencies, it is important to remember that a downward pressure on the US dollar could sometimes impact the Japanese yen. The main driver behind the NZDJPY gains was Monday's Consumer Price Index out of New Zealand, which came in at 0.2%, better than the expected 0.1%. However, it was down from a previous 0.4%; this could indicate that the NZD gains may be short-lived from a fundamental point of view. Japan's All Industry Activity Index came in lower than August, yet another force behind short-term JPY weakness. Coming up… 89 https://education.investdiva.com/join-premium-closed-facebook-group10370581 Friday: During the Asian session, New Zealand releases their Credit Card Spending. Market Sentiment The majority of the New Zealand dollar traders (almost 39%) currently are shorting it. As a contrarian trader, you may consider this as a short-term bullish signal. Trading Strategy Considering all points of the IDDA, we can conclude on a short-term strategy as opposed to a long or medium-term strategy. Depending on your risk tolerance, you could consider a short-term bullish position on the NZD/JPY. Bullish Scenario Aggressive to moderately aggressive traders can enter a position now, targeting 75.75 and 80 in extension. Stop-loss can be set at 73.45 for those with lower risk tolerance. Bearish Scenario A break back below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart would change our outlook back to bearish, with 73.45 as first alternative target. 90 NZD/JPY Bullish Testing Continues This article was published on November 1st, 2016 as a follow-up to the previous strategy on investdiva.com. Happy November, Invest Divas! Mr. Kiwi is havinga good start to the month with NZDJPY testing above the triangle pattern we identified months ago. But should we be all be excited or is there some barrier preventing Mr. Kiwi from jumping higher? Let's take an IDDA approach to find out. Technical Analysis Figure 6.5 NZD/JPY Confirms Breaks above Ichimoku Cloud 91 http://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=nzdjpy-testing-above-triangle-november Medium Time Frame The NZD/JPY pair broke above an upward moving Ichimoku cloud on October 26 th, and has been continuing above a very thin and flat cloud ever since. We have been eyeing 75.75, as we have discussed in our Facebook group. However, the pair is still trapped inside a new triangle pattern. The good news is that on the first trading day of the month, the pair is already attempting to break above it and opened above a median pivot level of 74.75. This could signal further bullish moves towards a medium- term target of 75.75— the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and an important resistance. The pivots remain on the Ichimoku cloud and 73.45 and 72.50. Long Time Frame On the monthly chart, NZDJPY remains inside a thick, upward-moving cloud, indicating a long-term consolidation. The brand new candle for November seems to be trying to move up and away from the solid consolidation. The Ichimoku cloud itself is moving upward; however, its lower band is acting as a solid support. 92 Fundamentals Japan Side: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the short-term negative interest rate at -0.10% earlier during the Asian session today. They will be carrying on with the current pace of JGB purchases so holdings can increase at an annual pace of 80 trillion JPY. However, the policymakers of the Land of the Rising Sun admitted that risks to economic growth and inflation are a bit on the downside, particularly when it comes to export activity and output. They mentioned that there’s still some momentum in price levels but that it weakened recently, adding that inflation could rise towards 2% in the second half of 2018. Figure 6.6 NZD/JPY Inside Thick Ichimoku Cloud on Monthly Chart 93 Still, BOJ folks agreed to keep very close tabs on price developments in the coming months. They will continue to implement QQE until the economy achieves its 2% inflation target. Also, BOJ officials warned that lower confidence in fiscal stability could cause the Japanese economy to perform weaker than expected. All to create a weaker outlook on Mr. Japanese Yen. New Zealand Side: Later today (which is November 2 nd in the Land Down Under), at 9:45 PM GMT, a hefty quarterly jobs report will be released out of New Zealand. In last quarter (Q2), net employment in New Zealand increased by 2.4%. That was a lot better than the expected 0.6% increase. In the Q3 jobs report today, employment in New Zealand is expected to increase by 0.6%, which is obviously slower than the previous quarter’s 2.4% increase. With this a lower-than-expected outcome could take a hit on Mr. Kiwi's joyous up-moves. 94 NZD/JPY Trading Result, November 23, 2016 At the time of writing this book, the pair has so far reached two of our targets and is currently reaching for the third at 38% Fibonacci level at 80. Pivot is set at 78 while new support level is at 50% Fibonacci at 75.75. It is now your turn to check your NZD/JPY chart and find out how the rest of our strategy panned out. Is Ichimoku worth a shot? Figure 6.7 NZD/JPY Reaches 2 Targets, Reaching for Third 95 USD/JPY Confirms above Ichimoku Cloud – Yellen to Speak Friday This article was published on October 12th 2016, on investdiva.com, as a follow-up to previously spotted bullish reversal signal published on October 4th, titled “USD/JPY Enters Ichimoku Cloud For the First Time in Four Months.” Hallelujah! Am I only dreaming or is this real? USDJPY confirmed above Ichimoku cloud for the first time in a whopping 10 months this week. Now all we need is another signal to fully change our outlook to bullish. “And what is that?” you ask. Read on, my beautiful diva. Figure 6.8 USD/JPY Confirms Breaks above Ichimoku Cloud 96 http://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=usdjpy-confirmed-above-ichimoku-cloud-yellen http://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=usdjpy-enters-ichimoku-cloud-first-time-months Technical Analysis The Dollar Gods have spoken and Ms. USA is gaining back her momentum on the Forex dance floor. The USD/JPY pair is officially above the Ichimoku cloud and above the pivot level of 103.50, stretching towards the next pivot of 23% Fibonacci at 105.25 during the Thursday’s early Sydney session. The US dollar strength on Wednesday was specifically due to FOMC minutes, which showed the Fed may be up for a rate hike relatively soon. A break above the 23% Fibonacci could indicate further gains towards resistance of 108.70. A shocking risk event out of the US to turn the pair back below the Ichimoku cloud would change our outlook back to bearish. Support is remaining strong at 100. Trading Strategy With growth in US economic data, anticipations of a 2016 rate hike, and the October effect, the USD/JPY pair has finally confirmed above the Ichimoku cloud. This already is good news for the USD bulls. However, we have one more barrier to break above: the 23% Fibonacci level. 97 Bullish Scenario: If you have been following my signals and have high risk tolerance, you probably are already in a bullish trade for USD/JPY targeting 105. For those with lower risk tolerance, we need yet another confirmation signal by break above 105.25. So yeah ... stay tuned, my love! Bearish Scenario: We could certainly see a temporary pullback at around 105, which could be a pip-making chance for short-term traders. However, for us to change our outlook to long-term bearish again, we need the pair to go nuts and move back down below the Ichimoku cloud. Only a break below 100 could open doors to new 2016 lows. 98 https://education.investdiva.com/join-premium-closed-facebook-group USD/JPY Trading Result, November 23, 2016 After a bunch of follow-ups with the Invest Diva community, at the time of writing this book, the pair has reached above and beyond our expectations. As one of Invest Diva students puts it, USD/JPY has turned into, “the gift that keeps on giving.” One last time, it is now your turn to check your USD/JPY chart and see how the rest of our strategy panned out. Figure 6.9 USD/JPY Reaches 3 Targets, Reaching for Fourth 99 It’s Time for You to Use Ichimoku Secrets So that’s our Ichimoku Secrets combined with Fibonacci levels to develop strategies based on your risk tolerance. Now it’s your turn. The Ichimoku secrets have been proven thousands of times over. All of my personal success has been built by doing exactly what I taught you in this book. As you may have noticed, I personally use the Ichimoku indicator mostly on the daily chart as a medium to long- term strategy development assistant. In the case studies I show-cased some of our success stories. I encourage you to go through our other strategies on investdiva.com throughout the years and see for yourself the outcomes of following the Ichimoku indicator. Obviously, there are some cases where the Ichimoku indicator created a false signal, which resulted in losses. In our Ichimoku Secrets online video course, I have covered many more case studies—including my losing trades and the reasons behind the losses—while exhibiting more details about Ichimoku that are only possible to communicate in video format. 100 Additionally, I have added a bonus risk-management section, which is based on my lectures at Baruch College, to help you calculate your risk-tolerance and therefore identify the best Fibonacci retracement levels for you. Follow along with the course and other Invest Diva education services. Plug into the Invest Diva community. And then write to me and tell me about your success story.You can reach me at kiana@investdiva.com Links and Resources Your free membership to Invest Diva: www.investdiva.com More Invest Diva resources: http://investdiva.com/education My trading insights: http://investdiva.com/must-reads 101 mailto:kiana@investdiva.com http://www.investdiva.com/ http://investdiva.com/education http://investdiva.com/must-reads About the Author Born and raised in Iran as a religious minority, Kiana was awarded a scholarship from the Japanese government to study electrical engineering in Japan, where she faced a new challenge of being the only girl and only foreigner in her class. This is precisely when she knew she wanted to dedicate her life to empowering minorities, especially women in male dominated industries, such as finance and technology. During her 7 years in Japan, she became recognized as an outspoken “foreign” woman, and became a lecturer on political/ social issues in universities around Japan. She was later assigned a seat on a Japanese National TV (NHK) talk show as a commentator on international and domestic issues, on which she appeared regularly for two years. These activities gained her widespread recognition and as a result she won a number of key awards (see below). After graduating from Tokyo University of Electro Communications with honors, Kiana worked as an analyst at a consulting company, taking over clients such as Coca- Cola and Toyota in Japan. However, having found her true passion in finance, she rapidly decided to move to New York to pursue her dream, and started working at the largest currency broker in the US in 2010. She soon discovered that there was a significant lack of education in the field of investing as well as a significant lack of women in the industry, which was something she was eager to change. So Kiana decided to leave her job and start an investing education company for women in May 2012. 102 As part of this transition, Kiana started writing an educational blog, which was discovered by McGraw-Hill Business, who in turn offered her a book publishing deal in August 2012. Her first book, Invest Diva’s Guide to Making Money in Forex was published in June 2013, and has been featured on CNN, TIME magazine, Forbes, ABC News, Market Watch, FX Street, Nasdaq, and the NYSE. Fluent in Japanese, English and Farsi, Kiana has collaborated with international and domestic companies such as NASDAQ (NY), Forbes magazine, Forex TV (NY), SHIFT (NY), Orbex (Cyprus), Platinum Investments (UK), Scuttify (Australia), Trading Central (Singapore), Capital Index (UK), AutoChartist (South Africa), BFSForex (China), Tokyo-MX TV, Aonorshe School (Japan) and FX-ON (Japan) on consulting, education and various media projects. Kiana is also an Adjunct Professor of Finance at Baruch College, teaching an advanced wealth management course. She has been recognized with the following awards: • Education Tools Best in Class – 2016 (Benzinga Fintech Awards) • New York Business Journal Women of Influence Honoree – 2016 • Best Financial Education Media Provider – 2014 (Shanghai Forex Expo) • Best Commentator on a Japanese Social Issues Program, Generation Y– 2008 -2010 (Japanese National TV, NHK) 103 Giving Back Kiana is extremely active and passionate about empowering women to help them unlock their potential and help them realize that they can make a positive impact on the world around them. Some specific examples of her leadership include: She is a member of the Women’s Leadership Council, whose role is to planning and holding women empowerment events, conducting investment education lectures, and increase their number of members of the community. She is an avid and award winning participant in pro bono activities, aiding refugee asylum seekers. She is also a volunteer reporter on Middle Eastern political issues. Kiana is recognized as a unique icon within the Persian Jewish community in Great Neck, NY. In this community, girls are traditionally taught to avoid going after their dreams, career or social life, because, according to the tradition, “these activities decrease the chances of them getting married within the community, and labels them as an unsuitable marriage candidate for Persian Jewish men.” Getting married has been set as the primary goal for these women. Men typically have the upper hand and are intimidated by powerful women. Kiana herself was severely criticized for living in alone Japan, and for starting up a company in New York, things that “good Persian Jewish girls are not supposed to do.” She was subject to a large amount of gossip, being told that she doesn’t belong to the community because of her activities. 104 After overcoming these challenges and establishing herself as a successful entrepreneur and author, she has been able to open the minds of the community, who now avidly seek her advice and empowerment. She has held numerous women empowerment events within the community, encouraging women to take control of their finances, life and education. She has been recognized with the following award: Pro Bono Humanitarian Award – 2013 (IABA, Iranian- American Bar Association) Kiana believes in the concept of “paying it forward” and, combined with her desire to help women and other minorities succeed, has a proven track record as a mentor. She has developed a Facebook community group to help empower women on a higher level and is a top mentor at Baruch College and Invest Diva. 105 Let’s talk. Visit us: The Japanese Way to Trading Success Whether you’ve already started trading, or you’re itching to start, this is a recipe for making more profit, more often. What if you could develop winning strategies all by yourself? What if you were the first to spot a trend-change in the market? What if you were able to calculate the exact target levels and aim for them based on your portfolio and risk tolerance? This book will help you build your strategy development skills—fast. InvestDiva @InvestDiva @KianaDanial KIANA DANIAL has been creating successful trading strategies since she was an electrical engineering student in Japan. After doubling her initial investment during the 2008 market crash, by trading the Japanese Yen against the US dollar with the help of a Japanese trader, she rapidly moved to New York to pursue a career on Wall Street. She then launched her investing education website, INVEST DIVA, and received an offer to publish her first investment book by McGraw-Hill. But the success-train was just getting started ̶̶ once she started teaching her new formula to other traders, the results were simply breathtaking. Now the question is … are YOU ready to learn the Ichimoku secrets and develop winning strategies? “Kiana has done a tremendous job of simplifying a powerful yet commonly misunderstood indicator. Intermediate to experienced traders will find this book of great value if they are looking to adjust their medium to long term strategies to fit specific risk tolerances.” – Ilan Azbel, CEO at AutoChartist
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