Além da desindustrialização transformações no padrão de organização e acumulação da indústria em um cenário de Doença Brasileira

Original articles Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , Unicamp . IE. http://dx.doi.org /10.1590/1982-35 33.20 20 v2 9n1art 01 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . Beyond dein dustrializat ion: change s in the patter n of industry organization a nd accum ulation in a s cenario of the \u2018 Brazilian D isease \u2019 \uf02a Antônio Carlos Diegues ** \uf02a Caroline Gut Rossi *** \uf02a Abstract This paper aims to analyze the changes in the p attern of organization and accumulation of the Brazilian in dustry in the 2000s. In accordance w ith the thesis presented here, si nce the defe nsive reaction to th e crisis of developmentalism and the transform ations d erived from th e exhaustion of th e Fordist techno-econom ic p aradigm in the second half of the twentieth century, the emergence of a new pattern of orga nization and accumulation of th e local industry, termed the Brazilian Disease, was consolidated in the first decade of the 21 st centu ry . This pattern is characterized by structural reconfiguratio ns tow ard regressive specialization and d eindustriali zation alon gside the emergence of strategies that ensured the accumulation o f capital invested in th e industrial sphere. This accumulation, in turn, was associated with th e e mergence of strategies in creasingly disconn ected fro m a strictly p roductive performance. Keywords : Industry; Deindustrialization; Development; Brazilian Disease. Resumo Além da desindu strialização: transformações no padrão de organização e acumulação da indústria em u m cenário de \u2018 Doença Brasileira \u2019 O objetivo deste artigo é analisar as transfor mações no padrão de organização e acumulação d a indústria brasileira na primeira década de 2000. Segundo a interpretação defendida n este trabalho, a p artir da reação d efensiva à crise do desenvolvime ntismo e às transf ormações derivadas do esg otamento do paradigm a tecnoeconôm ico vigente na segunda m etade do sé culo XX, observou- se n a primeira década de 2000 a emergência de um n ovo p adrão d e organização e acumulação da indústria local, denominado de Doença Brasilei ra. Essa seria caracterizada po r um cenário em que se v erificam reconfigurações e struturais em direção à especialização regre ssiva e à desindustrialização em paralelo ao surgimento de estratégias que garantiram a acu mulação do capital investido na esfera industrial. Tal acumulação, p or sua vez , estaria ass ociada à e mergência de e stratégias c rescentemente desvinculadas do desempenho estritamente produtivo. Palavras-chave : Indústria; Desindustrialização; Desenvolvimento; Doença Brasileira. JEL L060, O54, O14, L16. * Article re ceived on October 6 , 2016 and ap proved on A pril 1, 2019. ** Coordinator at the Center for I nd ustrial Eco nomics and Technology \u2013 Economics Department, State University of Campinas (I E/Unicamp), Cam pinas, SP, Braz il. E-mail: diegues@u nicamp.br . *** MSc in Economics, Fe deral University of S ão Carlos campus S orocaba, Sor ocaba, SP, Brazil. E-mail: carolgut@gmail .com . Antônio Carl os Dieg ues, Carolin e Gut Rossi 2 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . Introduction 1 The Brazilian i ndustry has undergone changes in recent decades that have led to an intense debate about the existence of a possible o ngoing process of deindustrialization in the country. Concern surrounding this phenom enon gained momentum in t he 1990s, when, after economic and financial opening , the decline in i ndustry participation in GDP was aggravated. In recent decades several economists of different theoretical stances have tried to anal yze the performance of the Brazi lian industry and its r elationship with nat ional econom ic dynamics. Despite divergences, espec ially with regard to its ce ntral role in economic developm ent , there seems t o be a certain consensus in relation to two points: (i) the correlation between t he low dynamism of investment in manufactur ing and the aggregate investment, as well as their quantitative effects on the low economic growth; and (ii) the relationship of mutual determination between this low dynamism of m anufacturing investment and the fall in competitiveness of the loca l industry 2 . Thus, i n or der to contribute to the debate, the objective of this paper is to analyze t he changes in the pattern of org anization and accumulation of t he Brazili an industry in the first decade of the 21st ce ntury. When analyzing such transformations, we propose that, from the defensive reaction to the crisis of developmentalism and the transition of t he Chandlerian techno-econom ical paradigm into one based on microelectronics and network firms, it is possible to observe the emerg ence of a new pattern of organization and ac cum ulation of the local industry in the first decade of the 21 st century, a pattern here termed the Brazilian Diseas e. The latter is characterized, d ur ing the period propose d, by a scenario in which a process of regressiv e specializati on of the produc tive st ructure, with st rong indica tions of deindustrializ ation, coexists alongside the maintenance and even increase in the accumulatio n of capital invested in the local industry . This accumulation, in turn, is associated with the emergence of s trategies inc reasingly disconnected f rom a strictly productive pe rformance 3 . Thus, this paper arg ues that the low produ ctive dynamism of the local i ndustry, e ven in a scenario of economic g r owth up to 2010, was, in fact, t he sy mptom of a succes sful pa ttern of organization and accumulation, active in the first decade of the 21 st century. T hat is, we understand that the Brazili an industry has been able to adapt and reconfigure its productive activities, gra dually reducin g the local content added to its produc tion. This reduction, in turn, was accom pani ed by incre ased im ports of final products, par ts, pieces and components from (1) Some exce rpts of this work, materialize d in a preliminary and partial ve rsion, we r e disclosed in a non -ac ademic communication o utlet. (2) This relationsh ip, howe ver, has differe nt meanings of causali ty fo r development-oriented and liber al economists. (3) The phenomenon that this article understands as character istic of a Braz ilian Disease is distinguished from that presented by David K upfer in an opinion pi ece published on April 04, 2007 in the financ ial new sp aper Val or Econômi co . According to the author, \u201c it is th e kno wn vicious circle in w hich the l ow dynamism of the inter nal market, the increasing pre ssure of imported products and the reductio n of profitability of exports undermine the incentives for company investments, w ithou t which t here is a d ecrease in p roductivity reactions, wit hout w hich the abil ity to live with the h ighly valued e xchange rate d eclines. This, perhaps, is the essence of the \u2018 Brazilian dise ase \u2019\u201d (free translation). Bey on d d ei ndu str ia li z ati on: cha nge s i n t he p att ern of i nd ust ry org ani z at ion and ac cum ulat io n i n a s c en ari o of t he \u2018B razi lia n Di sea se\u2019 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 20 20. 3 the import-oriented integration into global product ion chains and the increase in industrial sector profits. In order to develop these argum ents, this article is divided into four sections, in addition to this i ntroduction. The second section presents the relations hip between the industry and economic development. In the third, the different interpretations of the deindustrialization process in Brazil are analyzed. We then seek to briefly systematize such contribut ions departing from a taxonom y that aggregates the diffe rent takes on this p rocess into four strands: neo - developmentalis t, liberal, social-developm ent alist and the busin ess elite from the state of São Paulo, represented by FIESP (the Federation of Industri es of the State of São Paulo). The fourth section, titled \u201c Deindus t rialization and the Brazilian Disease \u201d , sugg es ts a new in terpretation of the transform ati ons in the p attern of organization and accum ulation of t he Br azilian industry in the 2000s. The con clusions are p resented in the fina l section. 1 Industry and deve l opment Economic development is closely rel ated to chang es in the productiv e struct ure. According to Rodrik ( 2007), \u201c the hallm ark of developm ent is structural change - the process of pulling the economy \u2019 s resources from traditional low-productivity activities t o modern hi gh- productivity activities. \u201d He continues, \u201c this is far from an aut omatic process, and requires mor e than well- f unctioning m arkets. It is th e respons ibility of industrial po licy to stimulate investments and en trepreneursh ip in new activ ities (...) \u201d (Rodrik, 2007, p. 7). Similarly, when analyzing t he relationship between transformations in the productive structure and productivity growth, Hirschman (1958) highlights the central role of t he industry. According to the author, this centrality is related to t he capacity of industrial activities to work as important vectors in spreading dynamism in t he economy , through the high degree of backward and fo rward linkag es . Also with r egard t o the qu antitative and qualitative im pac ts of the industry in other economic ac tivities, Kaldor (1967) s t ates th at th e uniqu e chara cteristics of t he i ndustrial sector make it a source of dynamism and driver of l ong-term growth. By observing this perceptio n derived from Kaldor \u2019 s s t atistical analyses in the 1960s and 1970s, Thirwall (1983) suggests the systematization of his contributions in what is conv entionally called Kaldor \u2019 s growth l aws, which can be enunciat ed as follows: 4 (i) the growth of the industria l sector is the source of th e growth of t he economy as a whole, particularly given its ability t o increase the pace of technological innovation; (ii) the relationship between t he growth of the indus trial sector and the growth of industry productiv ity shoul d be understood as a causal one, in which the rise in demand for industrial products leads to an increase in production, which, in turn, increase s economies of s cale, increases t he d egree of division of labor and introduce s new machines an d (4) A discussion on the orig ins of Kaldor \u2019 s Law s and their different inte rpretations go b ey ond the objectives o f this w ork. Those who are in terested can consult Feijó and Carvalho (2007), for ex ample, who discuss Kaldor \u2019 s theoretical d evel opments, analyzing their propositions i n light of the Brazilian experience after the comm ercial opening. Antônio Carl os Dieg ues, Carolin e Gut Rossi 4 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . processes; (iii) the rise of demand-driven industrial production prom otes a labor transfer from other sectors o f the econom y to the indust ry, w here p roductiv ity is higher, mak ing the na tional product grow more than with increased employm ent in other sectors, where pr oductivity is lower; (iv) the main source of econom ic growth is ex t ernal demand for in dustrial products, and this growth is basically due t o the pursuit of new m arkets and an agility in the ability to m eet external demand, which l eads, via the Keynesian mult iplier and backward link ages, to the growth of internal consumption and investment. Therefore, Kaldor, despite using the economic performance of central econom ies as an ob ject of his analy sis, saw i ndustrial growth as the strength and the v ehi cle of econom ic growth in general. Kaldor \u2019 s approach largely focuses on the fact that t he industry exhi bits increasing returns t o scale, which influences the growth in productivity of the economy as a whole . Therefore, the industry would work as a propell ant of econom ic development, as it would boost itself and create incentives that would l ead to the mechanizat ion, in varying degrees, of other activities (Thirlwa ll, 1983). Moreover, giv en that the incom e e lasticity of externa l demand for manufactured goods is greater than the income elasticity of external demand for commodities and p r imary products, industrializat ion is necessary to a lleviate the res triction to the balance of payments (McCom bi e ; Thir lwall, 1994; Thir lwall, 2005). Similarly, and from a perspective that analyzes development processes in a comparative perspectiv e, authors such as Rowthorn and Ramaswany (1999) and Kuznets (1966) qualify economic development as a three -phase phenomenon. The first phase, according to this view, is mark ed by the major participa tion of the prim ary sector in the GDP, which exhibits a pr ogressive increase in p r oductivity . Over tim e and owing to the increased productivity, the surplus labor from the agricultural sector moves into urban areas, finding em ploym ent in t he industry and the services sector, though to a lesser extent . In this contex t, the second phase of development is characterized by a rise in productivity in the industrial sector, which, as with the primary sector in the previous phase, increases its productivity and releases surplus labor into a growing sector, the servi ces sector. The third and final phase of economic developm ent is marked by an i ncrease in the participation of the tertiary sector in GDP. With the increase in productivity in the processing industry and in view of its growing returns to scale, a portion of the workforce shifts t o the service sector, which expands as a reflection of a m at uration of the coun try \u2019 s developm ent stage (Rowthorn ; Ram aswany, 1999). This last phas e of developm ent, i n which the industry loses i ts relative share of GDP (without necessarily reducing the g r oss v alue of production and value adde d in absolute terms) is called post-industrialization, or po sitive deindust rializ ation (Palma, 2005). According to this vision and as a consequence of a successful industrialization process, the industry loses relative participation in a positive way, or as expected, without the decrease in its growth rate damaging other sectors and ov erall econom i c development. However, according to aut hors related to the structu ralist t radition of the Economic Comm ission for Latin America and t he Caribbean (ECLAC), such as Raul Prebisch (1949), Bey on d d ei ndu str ia li z ati on: cha nge s i n t he p att ern of i nd ust ry org ani z at ion and ac cum ulat io n i n a s c en ari o of t he \u2018B razi lia n Di sea se\u2019 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 20 20. 5 the deindustrial ization process cannot be considered natural, since industry is a key sect or for economic development and continues to be so even after the consol idation of t he industrialization process. According t o Pre bish, industrialization is conditional on the historical development processes of a given country . In the case of La tin America and its late- industrialization countries, trade relations with industrialized nations have compromised the installation o f a robust i ndustr ial capaci ty capable of spreading dynam i sm t o the rest of the economy . According t o ECLAC researchers Benaven te et al. (2 010), neoclassi c al autho rs have underestimated the importance of the industrial policies adopted by Latin American countries in the post-w ar period and the achievem ent s attained during the proc ess of import substitution industrialization ( ISI ). Cimoli et al. (2005) hold that what determines the perform ance of a given economy in relation to t he i nternation al economy is its capacity to promote structural changes in accordance w ith t he dom inant technolog ies of its time. Thus, according to ECLAC, ea ch country can follow a unique trajectory of growth and development, which is largely determined by it s ability to absorb international t echnolog ical evolutions and histor ical f actors. Thus, decreased industrial sector participation at the expense of i ncreased participation of services in a n economy \u2019 s production a nd employm ent would not occu r na turally. In this sense, deindustrializ ation could represent, following Kaldorian and EC LAC interpretation s, an obstacle to econ omic devel opment. 2 A brief take on interpretations of the changes in the Brazilian productive structure in the 2000s This section presents a summary of different readings o n the transform ation p rocess of the Brazilian productive st ructure. The m ain aim is to identify patterns of correlated interpretations and system atize their contributions so as t o group them in a taxonomy that can represent the m ain sty lized arguments on the t ransform ation of the B r azilian productive structure in the first decad e of the 21 st century. It is wor th noting , however, that the objectiv e of this taxonomy is not as a contribution of this paper to the debat e. The goal is that such a taxonomy, by arraying and organizing the arguments found in the literatur e, may present t he interpretation with which the thesis defended in this article will debate. That is, the construction of such a taxonom y will support the pr esent study. By analyzing some short com ings of these di fferent outlook s in order to understand the dynamics of organizatio n and accumulation of the Braz i lian industry in the 2000s (hereafter representing the first decade of the presen t century), we sought to construct an alternative interpretation (labele d the Brazilian Disease), which represents the main contribution of this work. In general, as will be expo sed in detail in the next section, the interpreta tion of the Brazilian Disease questions: (i) th e assertion that the reduction in the accum ulation capacity o f the Brazilian industry in the 2000s explains an i mportant part of the fall in dynamism and t he resulting loss of its relativ e im portance in the Brazilian economy, as suggested by the neo - Antônio Carl os Dieg ues, Carolin e Gut Rossi 6 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . developmentalis t analy tical approach; (ii) the idea that the increase i n dom estic production costs in the aforementioned decade ( mainly those related to the growth of w ages above productivity) was responsible for t he erosion of local competitiveness and the ensui ng intensification of deindustr ialization, as sugg ested by the São Paulo business elite; and (iii) the liberal thesis by which the alleged non-integration to g l obal production networks would be one of the m ain cause s of the deteriora tion of the growth capacity and incr ease in productivity of the domestic industry. Finally, anticipating analyses that will be presented in t he next section, the Brazili an Diseas e inte rpretation s uggests th at, althoug h the appreciation of the local currency i s central to understanding t he lower productive dynamism of the 2000s, as the social- developmentalis ts argue, a v alued exchange rate played an im portant role in increasing the capacity of indust ry accumula tion in the period. With an unde rstanding of how the systematizat ion of outlooks on Brazilian productiv e structure dynamics and the phenomenon of deindustrializa tion in the 2000s through a taxonomy contributes to the construction of the thesis supported here, we mov e on to present the main arg uments of these in terpretations. In or der to group t hem accor ding to a t axonom y, we co nsider, like Bielschowsk y (1988) 5 , that institutional and politica l elements, i n addition to differences with regard to theoretical foundations, condition the distinct interpretations present i n the debate about the phenomenon. Thus, to construct su ch segmentation, this article seeks to subdivide the interpretations accor ding to criteria such as theoretical founda tions, cla ssification of the importance of industry for d evelopment, determinan ts of the processes of transformation of t he productive s tructure and institutional infrastructure, as well as prescriptive g ui delines of industrial policy suitable for industrial development. Additionally , si milarly to Bielschowsk y (1988), the analy tical approaches were segm ented according to institutional and political links. Thus, the taxonomy propose d in this paper sy nthesizes the debate on Brazilian deindustrializ ation into four approaches : (a) social-developmentalist, (b) neo- developmentalis t, (c) libera l, and (d) the São P aul o business e lite (represen ted by FI ESP) 6 . The social-developmental ist approach characterizes the industry as the m ain vector of economic growth and structural transformations. Advoc ates of this approach share the idea that the economic development process is directly l inked to industrialization, which, in turn, is historically fo stered by public pol icies in per ipheral econom i es ( Sarti; Hiratuk a, 2011) 7 . (5) W hen analyz ing the Braz ilian eco nomic think ing in the ideo logical cycle of developmentalism, Bi elschow sky (1988) proposes segmentation in to five stances: (1) neol iberal, (2) developmentalism of the private sector, (3) developmentalism of the non-nationalist p ublic sector, ( 4) nationalis t public deve lopmentalism and (5) so cialist. (6) The classif ication in the se four gro ups is some what subjective. How ever, we sought to group authors and instit utions according to the proximity of the id eas expre ssed in their published wor ks and the perception of their peers on the positioning of these authors i n the debate. (7) De sp ite the f act that some authors do not e xpressly call t hemselves social -devel opmentalists, their wo rk w as aggreg ated i n this group due t o the similarity between their interpreta tions and th e fact that they were d evelope d in institutions perceived by their academic peers as linked to the approach that has been conventionall y t ermed social -develo pmentalism. This same restriction justifies the cl assification of au thors in the other groups (ne o-developme ntalists, liberals and business el ite). Bey on d d ei ndu str ia li z ati on: cha nge s i n t he p att ern of i nd ust ry org ani z at ion and ac cum ulat io n i n a s c en ari o of t he \u2018B razi lia n Di sea se\u2019 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 20 20. 7 According t o Cano ( 2012), Brazil faces an ear ly and harmful deindustr ialization, as shown by the decline in the participation of the manufac turi ng industry in GDP. T he main causes of deindustrialization, according to the author, are the exchange policy im plemented after t he Plano Real , the commercial opening that started in the 1990s (and which complem ented the harmful ef fect of t he appre ciated ex chang e ra te), high i nterest rates and low dynamism of the product ive investment (conversely to t he v igor presented by i nvestments in financial serv ices and finan cial assets in po r tfolios, private secur ities and publ ic debt). Additionally, an important share of the g l obal manufacturing foreign direct investm ent during the l ast decade ha s s hi fted to Chi na in search o f dev alued exc hange rates and low costs, which has also jeopardized t he developm ent of the na tional indus try. One of the consequences of this scenario, according t o Cano (2012), is the loss of competitiveness of Brazilian exports along with incre ased impor ts of manufac tured product s (mainly indust rial inputs). Cano (2012) concludes that, in a per iod of inte rnational crisis, the g ui delines of public policies, rather than structuring liberalizing measures, should foster t he strengthening of the State \u2019 s capacity to guide and lead economic growth through investments and publi c purchasing power. Complementarily , Hiratuka and Sarti (2015) seek to analyz e the chang es in t he Brazilian productive structure beyond t he limits that surround t he debate on deindustrialization. Although they emphasize the contribu tions of t his debate to rest ore the percep tion that industry is central to econom ic development, the author s point out its limitations. Th e principal limitation is the negligence on the part of the literature and specialists regarding the impact of transformation s i n the global productive system in t erms of development of the national productive capacity. Among thes e transformation s, we highlight the reconfiguration of global production chains as a result of pr oductive act ivities being displaced to Asia \u2013 mainly China - , t he intensification of internat ional com pet itive pressures and the reinforcem ent of the competitive position s of global olig opolies resulting from asymm et ries associated with the domain of intangible assets, such as brands, marketing channels and technological capacitation. As this scenario, according to Hiratuk a and Sarti (2015), has been little explored by the three groups of authors who debated deindust rializ ation (classified as belonging to the mainstream , to the Kaldorian vision of g rowth and productive specialization, and to th e convergence of a Kaldoria n vision with structuralist and neo-Schumpeterian elements), i t is necessary to deepen the understanding of t he \u201c fundamental and necessary elements to discuss a broader development strategy sur rounding the Braz ilian product ive structure \u201d (Hiratuka ; Sarti, 2015, p. 17, f ree translation). Given the cha llenges outlin ed in the preced ing parag raph regarding \u201c industria l Chinalization \u201d (Sarti ; Hiratuka, 2017) and the prospects of developing a se t of potentially disruptive technological innovations m ater ialized in what has been conv ent ionally called Industry 4.0, Antônio Carl os Dieg ues, Carolin e Gut Rossi 8 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . factors identified as so lutions, such as increasi ng domestic savings, conditioning the ris e of w ages to the e xpansion of p roductivity and achieving g reater commercial openness (according to the mainstream perspective) d o not seem to live up to expectations. Similarly, a change in e xchange rate so that it is co mpatible with i ndustrial equilibrium, as pointed out b y the second a pproach (Kald orians), may be a neces sary, but insuf ficient, condition to face the chal lenge above. Finally, increa sing the in novative activity and raising the participation of more technology -inten sive sectors in the industrial structure, as highlighted by the third visio n (structuralists and neo -Schu mpterians), is funda mental. The main issue, however, is how to achieve t his goal, given the changes that ha ve been occurring in the global productive s tructure (Hiratuka ; Sarti, 2015, p. 1 7, free translation) . To this end, it is necessary to rethink t he potential and exi sting national productiv e capacities as well as the adequacy of industrial, scientific and technological policies to foster the creation of competi tive asymm etr ies in a scenario where inte rnational competi tion and profound transformations in the patterns of organization of producti on and accumulation coexist. It is al so worth remembering t hat, alongside such normative guidelines associated with the need to build a solid dev elopment strategy based on national productive and techno logical autonomy , concerns about t he delete rious role of di stortions in m acroeconomic prices constitute one of the important foundations from which social-developmentalis t i nterpretat ions stem. The dysfu nctionality of the chara cteristic r egime of an apprec iated exchan ge rate and high interest rates of a pattern of productivist accumulation was already observed in the seminal analyses on the effects of the opening and financial liberalization of the Brazilian econom y in the 1990s present ed by Cou tinho (1997) and Be l luzzo and A lmeida (2002) , among others. In turn, the m ost prominent thes is surrounding the debate on de industrializ ation defined by neo-developmentalist authors i s tha t w hich bases the observatio n of such a phenomenon on the persistent exchang e rate appreciation of the real, the Brazi lian currency , associated with favorable conditions for the commercialization of comm odities (increased international demand and p rices) and t he comparative advantages that Brazil already exhibits in these activities. According to this thesis, conside ring a lack of industrial policies that neutralize the effects of a possible Du tch disease, specializ ation in the domestic productiv e structure in less complex industrial links is observed. Thus, t he commodity sector prom ote s high commercial surplus thanks to its high competitiveness, which harms other less competitive sec tors that depend on the strengthening of a less v alued exchang e rate. Stemming from this theoretical f ramework and ana lyzing the determinants of the Brazilian productive perfor mance in the first decad e of t he 21 st century , Bresser-Pereira and Marconi (2010) categor ically affirm ed that the country had been undergoing deindustrializ ation as a result of the overvalued national currency. In 2005, Bresser-Pereira showed that the increase in exports, despite the continuous appreciation of the real, indicat ed that the count ry was facing the D utch disease (Bresser-Pereira, 2005). According to the author, the Dutch disease is a phenom enon that stems from the exi stence of abundan t natural resources Bey on d d ei ndu str ia li z ati on: cha nge s i n t he p att ern of i nd ust ry org ani z at ion and ac cum ulat io n i n a s c en ari o of t he \u2018B razi lia n Di sea se\u2019 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 20 20. 9 that generate comparative advantages for the country that commercializes them. This abundance, in turn, could drive the country to specialize in producing this kind of good r ather than industrializ ing, or interrupting its industrialization process, which would comprom i se economic develo pment. The rationale beh i nd neo- developmentalism when analyz ing the indust ry \u2019 s contextualized performance in the 2000s is that there was a reduction in the accum ulation capacity due to the Dutch disease and the maintenance of macroeconomic prices t hat are incompatible with increased industrial growth. T he reduction of this accum ulation capacity would b ring with i t a slowdown in p r oductive investments, the ensu ing stagnation of productivity and decreased competitiveness of the local productive capacity in the face of imports. Complem entary to the impacts of the overvaluation of the local currency on the competitiveness of t he Brazilian manufacturing industry, the n eo -developm entalist perspective developed a thesis that see ks to justify this tendency from a profit -squeeze movement. The theory gives t hat, i n addition t o t he negative impacts of an exchang e rate that is shifted from the level required for industrial equilibrium, the persistent growth of the real wage above productivity during the 2000s comprom ised the competitiveness and investment capacity of the local industry . According to Bresser-Pereira and Marconi (2010), the structural solution to t he problem of deindustrialization is the reorganization of relative prices in order to potentialize the a ccumulation of capi tal in the industrial sphere. On the one hand, wage growth would need to be l ower than product ivity growth. On the other hand, th e creation of the r equired mechanism s to m aintain industrial equilibrium exchange rate would b e necessary. According to t he autho r s, one must \u201c (1) impose tax es on the export of goods that give rise to the Dutch disease; (2) use en suing tax resou rces to rese t the public defic it; (3) lower the real intere st rate to the international level; and (4) estab lish barriers to entry of unwant ed capita l \u201d (Bresser- Pereira, 2010, free translation). T he r esult of this set of measures would ca use the incom e of primary goods exporters to be maintained, since the tax would be outweighed by the depreciation of the e xchange rate and, g radually, t he industry would resume growth. It i s worth remembering that, although t he deleteriou s impacts of an overvalued exchange rate are stressed by the social-developmentalist interpretation, the perception of these impacts on the growth models sug gested by the di fferent appro aches i s funda mentally distinct. This is be cause, whil e the neo-dev elopmentalists flirt, to some extent , with prescr iptive guidelines towards an export- led g rowth strateg y, soci al-developmentalist normative guideli nes f ocus o n the construction of a wage-led g rowth model. Despite the logical coherence o f the li ne o f arg umentation adv ocated by neo- developmentalis ts, as will be detailed in t he next section, the thesis of the B razilian Disease featured in this work que stions the ide a th at t here was a reduction in t he accumulation cap acity of the Brazilian indus try in the f irst decade of t he 21 st century. On the contrary, we seek to show empirically that t his accumulation capacity intensified, even though it was increasingly disconnected from str ictly produc tive activ ities perform ed do mestically. Antônio Carl os Dieg ues, Carolin e Gut Rossi 10 Economia e Sociedad e, Campinas , v. 29, n . 1 (68), p. 1-28, janeiro- abril 2020 . In turn, the authors that take a liberal stance argue that the Brazilian indus try was not stricken by the phenom enon of deindustrialization, si nce t here is an internationa l downward trend in t he impact of the industry in cou ntries \u2019 GDPs. T herefore, they believ e that the transformation s suf fered by the m anufacturing industry in Brazil do not constitute a pr ocess o f deindustrializ ation, as a glo bal trend was merely followed. Bonelli and Pessoa (2010) argue that the i ndustry is the most susc eptible sect or to short-term osci llations, influenced by external crises or domestic economic instabilities. In this context, the reduced participat ion of the Brazilian ind ustry has always bee n asso ciated with mom ents of crisis, since, according to the a uthors, \u201c the Brazilian indust ry produce s g oods that are elastic in relation to income. T hus, in phases of p rosperity, the industry tends to have a greater impact on the economy . The opposite occurs du ring stagnation and/or recession \u201d (free translation). Similarly, in several book chapters organized by Bacha and Bo lle ( 2013), there is a certain conv ergence about norm at ive g uidelines wh ich are ne cessary to restore th e g rowth and competitiveness of the Brazilian industry. Among these, we highlight the form ulation of a strategy for the local industry t o participate in global production chains, the reform of the public sector \u2013 wh ich, in this perspective, is inefficient in infrastructure investm ent \u2013 , the need t o increase innovat ion in the industry , investments in education, and the change of the national tax system in order to reduce the high taxes paid by nationa l companies. Despite the importance of investments i n infras tructure as catalysts of local systemic competitiveness, the following sect ion questions t he idea that the Brazilian industry presents a low level of integration in to global produc t ive networks. For this reason, it does not benefit from an alleged transmission of p roductivity gains by im porting inputs wi th high technological content. Conv ersely, we defend the argument that this integrat ion was deepe ned in the first decade of the 21st ce ntury. That is, the dom estic industry increas ingly opted t o inte nsify its import-oriented i ntegration into the networks, shifting local productive activities externally . Given t he appreciation of the local currency, this contri buted to the increase in its accumulation capacity in the sa id period. Lastly, with a m ajor i nflue nce in the debate on deindustrializa tion, we introduce the approach of the business elite from the state of São Paulo ; FIESP is the main representativ e of this group. The business elite attempt to analyz e the industr ial per formance of Brazil in the first decades of the 21st century from a perspective which is qualitativ ely different from the stances described previously. In other wo rds, g iven the char acteristics of institution s of this na ture, a less extensive analytical framework , in relation to the oth er approaches, is expected. The emphasis of the analyses shifts from understanding the r elationship between the productive structure and development in a broader sense to analyz ing (i) the binomial rate of return- incentive to inv es tment and (ii) the competitiv eness of the local p roductiv e capacity .

Além da desindustrialização transformações no padrão de organização e acumulação da indústria em um cenário de Doença Brasileira

Economia I

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Economia I

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