<div id="pf1" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="1"><div class="pc pc1 w0 h0"><img class="bi x0 y0 w1 h1" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg1.png"><div class="c x1 y1 w2 h2"><div class="t m0 x2 h3 y2 ff1 fs0 fc0 sc0 ls4 ws12">Artigos originais<span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ff2"> </span></div></div><div class="t m0 x3 h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, Unicamp<span class="blank _1"></span>. IE. </div><div class="t m0 x4 h5 y4 ff1 fs1 fc2 sc0 ls4 ws0">http://dx.doi.org<span class="blank _1"></span>/10.1590/1982-35<span class="blank _1"></span>33.20<span class="ls5 ws1">20<span class="ls6 ws2">v2</span></span>9n3art<span class="ls5 ws1">06<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ff3 fs2 fc1 ls4 ws12"> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 x5 h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 x6 h6 y6 ff3 fs3 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Descontrole ou i<span class="blank _1"></span>nflexão? </div><div class="t m0 x7 h6 y7 ff3 fs3 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">A política fisca<span class="blank _1"></span>l do governo Di<span class="blank _1"></span>lma e a crise econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ica <span class="ff4 fs1 ws3 v1">\uf02a</span> </div><div class="t m0 x8 h7 y8 ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavsky <span class="ff3 fs0 ws4 v1">**<span class="ff4 fs1 fc0 ls1">\uf02a</span></span> </div><div class="t m0 x9 h7 y9 ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Esther Dweck <span class="ff3 fs0 ws4 v1">***<span class="ff4 fs1 fc0 ls2">\uf02a</span></span> </div><div class="t m0 xa h7 ya ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Rodrigo Alves Teixeira <span class="ff3 fs0 ws4 v1">****<span class="ff4 fs1 fc0 ls2">\uf02a</span></span> </div><div class="t m0 xb h7 yb ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xb h7 yc ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xb h7 yd ff5 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xc h8 ye ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Resumo </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 yf ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">O <span class="blank"> </span>debate <span class="blank"> </span>sobre <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>trajetória <span class="blank"> </span>da <span class="blank"> </span>e<span class="blank _1"></span>conomia <span class="blank"> </span>brasileira <span class="blank"> </span>na <span class="blank _2"> </span>primeira <span class="blank"> </span>metade <span class="blank"> </span>da <span class="blank _2"> </span>década <span class="blank"> </span>de <span class="blank"> </span>2010 <span class="blank"> </span>é <span class="blank _2"> </span>marca<span class="blank _1"></span>do <span class="blank"> </span>pelo </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y10 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">protagonismo da condução da <span class="blank _1"></span>política fiscal para ex<span class="blank _1"></span>plicar a desaceleração econômica<span class="blank _1"></span> e posterior recessão, tanto no<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y11 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">campo da ortodoxia como da heterodoxia<span class="ls3">. </span>A ortodoxia aponta o <span class="ff5 ws5">d<span class="blank _0"> </span>es<span class="blank _1"></span>controle<span class="ff3 ws12"> dos gastos públicos como responsável </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y12 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pela <span class="blank _0"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _3"> </span>fiscal<span class="ls3">, <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>teria <span class="blank _0"> </span>conduzido <span class="blank _0"> </span>à <span class="blank _3"> </span>piora <span class="blank _0"> </span>das <span class="blank _3"> </span>expectativas <span class="blank _0"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>agentes <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>à <span class="blank _0"> </span>q<span class="blank _0"> </span>ueda <span class="blank _0"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>investimentos.<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>A </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y13 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">heterodoxia, n<span class="blank _1"></span>uma <span class="blank _1"></span>interpretação <span class="blank _1"></span>quase <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>oposta, <span class="blank _1"></span>aponta <span class="blank _1"></span>para um<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ff5 ws5">inflexão<span class="ff3 ws12"> da<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>política <span class="blank _1"></span>fiscal: <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>redu<span class="ls8 ws6">ção</span> dos <span class="blank _1"></span>gastos<span class="blank _1"></span>, </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y14 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">em <span class="blank _1"></span>especial <span class="blank _1"></span>dos <span class="blank _1"></span>investimentos, <span class="blank _1"></span>no <span class="blank _1"></span>início <span class="blank _1"></span>da <span class="blank _1"></span>década, <span class="blank _1"></span>teria <span class="blank _1"></span>af<span class="blank _1"></span>etado a<span class="blank _1"></span> c<span class="blank _1"></span>apacidade <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>indução <span class="blank _1"></span>da <span class="blank _1"></span>política<span class="blank _1"></span> e<span class="blank _1"></span>m <span class="blank _1"></span>um <span class="blank _1"></span>modelo </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y15 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _1"></span>cresc<span class="blank _1"></span>imento <span class="blank _1"></span>puxado <span class="blank _1"></span>pela <span class="blank _4"></span>demanda. <span class="blank _1"></span>Este <span class="blank _4"></span>artigo <span class="blank _1"></span>tem<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _4"></span>co<span class="blank _0"> </span>mo <span class="blank _4"></span>objetivo a<span class="blank _1"></span>valiar <span class="blank _4"></span>empiricamente essa<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _1"></span>explicações. <span class="blank _4"></span>Além </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y16 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _3"> </span>u<span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>análise <span class="blank _5"> </span>descritiva <span class="blank _3"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>ados, <span class="blank _3"> </span>u<span class="blank _0"> </span>tilizam<span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _3"> </span>um <span class="blank _5"> </span>modelo <span class="blank _3"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>Vetores <span class="blank _3"> </span>Auto-Regressivos <span class="blank _3"> </span>(V<span class="blank _0"> </span>AR) <span class="blank _3"> </span>para <span class="blank _3"> </span>examinar </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y17 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">como <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _3"> </span>elementos <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>ap<span class="blank _0"> </span>ontados <span class="blank _0"> </span>por <span class="blank _3"> </span>cada <span class="blank _0"> </span>uma <span class="blank _0"> </span>das<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>perspectivas <span class="blank _0"> </span>discutid<span class="blank _0"> </span>as <span class="blank _0"> </span>afetaram <span class="blank _3"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>crescimento </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y18 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">econômico <span class="blank _6"> </span>e, <span class="blank _6"> </span>em <span class="blank _6"> </span>especial, <span class="blank _6"> </span>se <span class="blank _6"> </span>sã<span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>capazes <span class="blank _6"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>explicar <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>desaceleração <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>recessão <span class="blank _6"> </span>n<span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>período <span class="blank _6"> </span>analisado. <span class="blank _6"> </span>Os </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y19 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">resultados <span class="blank _1"></span>indicam, <span class="blank _4"></span>contrarian<span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>visão <span class="blank _4"></span>orto<span class="blank _0"> </span>doxa, <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>não <span class="blank _4"></span>o<span class="blank _0"> </span>correu <span class="blank _4"></span>uma <span class="blank _1"></span>disparada <span class="blank _1"></span>dos <span class="blank _1"></span>gastos <span class="blank _1"></span>em <span class="blank _4"></span>rela<span class="blank _0"> </span>ção <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>governos </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1a ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">anteriores, <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls8">e </span>qu<span class="blank _0"> </span>e os <span class="blank _0"> </span>movim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos <span class="blank _0"> </span>no p<span class="blank _0"> </span>roduto tendem a <span class="blank _0"> </span>preceder <span class="blank _0"> </span>alterações no<span class="blank _0"> </span> resultado <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal, n<span class="blank _0"> </span>ão podendo <span class="blank _0"> </span>ser por </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1b ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">eles <span class="blank _7"> </span>explicados<span class="ls3">. <span class="blank _7"> </span></span>Também <span class="blank _7"> </span>apontam <span class="blank _7"> </span>o <span class="blank _8"> </span>impacto <span class="blank _7"> </span>relevante <span class="blank _7"> </span>do <span class="blank _7"> </span>investimento <span class="blank _7"> </span>públi<span class="blank _0"> </span>co <span class="blank _7"> </span>na <span class="blank _7"> </span>evolução <span class="blank _7"> </span>do <span class="blank _7"> </span>produto<span class="ls9">, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1c ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">confirmando <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls1 ws7">um</span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>elemento <span class="blank _3"> </span>central <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>abordagem <span class="blank _0"> </span>heterodoxa. <span class="blank _0"> </span>Todavia, <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls8 ws6">ao<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>revelar <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>até <span class="blank _0"> </span>2014 <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>gastos <span class="blank _3"> </span>públicos </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1d ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">continuavam <span class="blank _1"></span>a crescer, indica a i<span class="blank _1"></span>nsuficiência <span class="blank _1"></span>da tese <span class="blank _1"></span>heterodoxa para <span class="blank _1"></span>explicar a <span class="blank _1"></span>desaceleração nos anos a<span class="blank _1"></span>nteriores <span class="ls8">e </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1e ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a <span class="blank"> </span>profundidade <span class="blank"> </span>da <span class="blank _2"> </span>subsequente <span class="blank _2"> </span>recessão. <span class="blank"> </span>Diante <span class="blank _2"> </span>disso, <span class="blank"> </span>apresentam-se <span class="blank"> </span>elementos <span class="blank"> </span>explicativos <span class="blank _2"> </span>adicionais <span class="blank"> </span>para </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y1f ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">compreender o perío<span class="ls1 ws7">do</span>. </div><div class="t m0 xc h8 y20 ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws5">Palavras-chave<span class="ff3 ws12">: Política fiscal, Recessão, Investimento público, Modelo VAR. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y21 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xc h8 y22 ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 lsa ws8">Ab<span class="ls4 ws12">stract </span></div><div class="t m0 xc ha y23 ff7 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fiscal laxity or inflection? Fiscal policy in Roussef\u2019s government and the economic crisis<span class="ff8"> </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y24 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fiscal policy played <span class="blank _0"> </span>a leading role in th<span class="blank _0"> </span>e debate on the <span class="blank _0"> </span>trajectory<span class="blank _1"></span> of the <span class="blank _0"> </span>Brazilian economy<span class="blank _1"></span> in <span class="blank _0"> </span>the first half of <span class="blank _0"> </span>2010 </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y25 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">to <span class="blank"> </span>e<span class="blank _1"></span>xplain <span class="blank _2"> </span>the <span class="blank _2"> </span>econom<span class="blank _1"></span>ic <span class="blank _2"> </span>slowdown <span class="blank _2"> </span>and <span class="blank _2"> </span>subsequent <span class="blank _6"> </span>recession, <span class="blank"> </span>both <span class="blank _6"> </span>in<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>o<span class="blank _0"> </span>rthodox <span class="blank _2"> </span>and <span class="blank _6"> </span>h<span class="blank _0"> </span>eterodox <span class="blank _6"> </span>contributions. </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y26 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Orthodox economics points <span class="lsb ws9">to<span class="blank"> </span></span> uncontrolled public spending as being responsible for the fiscal deterioration, which </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y27 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">would <span class="blank _6"> </span>have <span class="blank _5"> </span>led <span class="blank _6"> </span>to <span class="blank _5"> </span>worsening <span class="blank _6"> </span>agents' <span class="blank _5"> </span>expectations <span class="blank _6"> </span>and <span class="blank _6"> </span>f<span class="blank _1"></span>alling <span class="blank _9"> </span>investments. <span class="blank _9"> </span>Heterodox <span class="blank _9"> </span>economics, <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="lsc wsa">in</span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>a <span class="blank _9"> </span>roughly </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y28 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">opposite <span class="blank _0"> </span>in<span class="blank _0"> </span>terpretation, <span class="blank _0"> </span>points <span class="blank _0"> </span>to <span class="blank _3"> </span>an <span class="blank _3"> </span>inflection <span class="blank _0"> </span>of <span class="blank _3"> </span>fisca<span class="blank _1"></span>l <span class="blank _3"> </span>policy <span class="blank _3"> </span>that, <span class="blank _3"> </span>reducing <span class="blank _3"> </span>spending, <span class="blank _0"> </span>particularly <span class="blank _0"> </span>in<span class="blank _0"> </span>vestme<span class="blank _1"></span>nt, <span class="blank _3"> </span>at </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y29 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">the beginning <span class="blank _1"></span>of <span class="blank _1"></span>the <span class="blank _1"></span>decade, w<span class="blank _1"></span>ould have <span class="blank _1"></span>com<span class="blank _1"></span>promised the policy<span class="blank _1"></span>-inducing capacity<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>in a <span class="blank _1"></span>demand-led growth <span class="blank _1"></span>model. </div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 xc h5 y2b ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div></div><div class="t m0 xe h5 y2b ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xf hc y2c ff3 fs5 fc1 sc0 ls4 wsb">*<span class="fs1 ws12 v2"> Artigo re<span class="blank _1"></span>cebido em 5 de maio<span class="blank _1"></span> de 2019 e<span class="blank _1"></span> aprovado em 3<span class="blank _1"></span> de setembro <span class="blank _1"></span>de 2019. </span></div><div class="t m0 xf hc y2d ff3 fs5 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">** <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="fs1 v2">Doutor <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>Economia <span class="blank _0"> </span>pela <span class="blank _0"> </span>Faculdade<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>Economi<span class="blank _1"></span>a, <span class="blank _0"> </span>Administraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ão, <span class="blank _0"> </span>Contabilidade<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>Atuária <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>Universidade <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>São </span></div><div class="t m0 xc hd y2e ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Paulo (FEA<span class="blank _1"></span>-USP), São Paulo<span class="blank _1"></span>, SP, Brasi<span class="lsd wsc">l.</span> E-mail<span class="lsd">: </span><span class="fc2 wsd">echernavsky@g<span class="blank _1"></span>mail.com<span class="fc1 ws12">. ORCI<span class="blank _1"></span>D: <span class="fc3">https://orcid.org<span class="blank _1"></span>/0000-0002-4055-3502. </span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xf hc y2f ff3 fs5 fc1 sc0 ls4 wsb">***<span class="fs1 ws12 v2"> <span class="blank _0"> </span>Professo<span class="blank _1"></span>ra <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>Instituto <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>Economia da <span class="blank _3"> </span>Universidade Federal <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>Rio <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>Janeiro <span class="blank _0"> </span>(UFRJ), R<span class="blank _0"> </span>io <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>Janeiro, RJ, <span class="blank _0"> </span>Brasil. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc hd y30 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">E-mail: <span class="fc2 wsd">edw<span class="blank _1"></span>eck@ie.ufrj.br<span class="fc1 ws12">). ORCI<span class="blank _1"></span>D: https://orci<span class="blank _1"></span>d.org/0000-0003-11<span class="blank _1"></span>28-0792. </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xf hc y31 ff3 fs5 fc1 sc0 ls4 wsb">****<span class="fs1 ws12 v2"> <span class="blank _0"> </span>Professor <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>Departamento <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>Economia <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>Pontifícia <span class="blank _0"> </span>Universidade <span class="blank _0"> </span>Católica <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>São <span class="blank _3"> </span>Paulo, <span class="blank _0"> </span>(P<span class="lse wse">UC<span class="ls4 wsd">-<span class="lsf wsf">SP</span></span></span>), <span class="blank _0"> </span>São <span class="blank _0"> </span>Paulo, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">SP, Brasil. E-<span class="ls10 ws10">ma</span>il: <span class="fc2 wsd">rateixeira@p<span class="blank _1"></span>ucsp.br<span class="fc1 ws12">. ORCI<span class="blank _1"></span>D: <span class="fc3 ws11">https://orcid.or<span class="blank _1"></span>g/0000-0002-6189-52<span class="blank _1"></span>7X.<span class="fc1 ws12"> </span></span></span></span></div><a class="l"><div class="d m1" style="border-style:none;position:absolute;left:257.230000px;bottom:143.270000px;width:85.840000px;height:11.000000px;background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0.000001);"></div></a><a class="l"><div class="d m1" style="border-style:none;position:absolute;left:371.680000px;bottom:143.270000px;width:130.040000px;height:11.000000px;background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0.000001);"></div></a><a class="l"><div class="d m1" style="border-style:none;position:absolute;left:122.990000px;bottom:121.270000px;width:64.290000px;height:11.000000px;background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0.000001);"></div></a><a class="l"><div class="d m1" style="border-style:none;position:absolute;left:159.000000px;bottom:99.270000px;width:69.390000px;height:11.000000px;background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0.000001);"></div></a><a class="l"><div class="d m1" style="border-style:none;position:absolute;left:257.010000px;bottom:99.270000px;width:131.820000px;height:11.000000px;background-color:rgba(255,255,255,0.000001);"></div></a></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf2" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="2"><div class="pc pc2 w0 h0"><img class="bi x0 y33 w1 he" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg2.png"><div class="t m0 xc h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavs<span class="blank _1"></span>ky<span class="ls7">, </span>Esther <span class="blank _1"></span>Dweck<span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">Rodrigo<span class="blank _1"></span> Alves Teixeira </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls5 ws1">812<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _a"> </span>Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y34 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">This <span class="blank _3"> </span>article <span class="blank _3"> </span>aims <span class="blank _3"> </span>to <span class="blank _5"> </span>empirically <span class="blank _3"> </span>evaluate <span class="blank _3"> </span>these <span class="blank _3"> </span>explanation<span class="blank _0"> </span>s. <span class="blank _3"> </span>In <span class="blank _3"> </span>addition <span class="blank _3"> </span>to <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>descriptive <span class="blank _3"> </span>analysis <span class="blank _3"> </span>of <span class="blank _3"> </span>the <span class="blank _3"> </span>data, <span class="blank _5"> </span>we </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y35 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">propose a ve<span class="blank _1"></span>ctor autoregression (<span class="blank _1"></span>VAR) m<span class="blank _1"></span>odel to examine <span class="blank _1"></span>how the <span class="blank _1"></span>fiscal policy<span class="blank _1"></span> elements <span class="blank _1"></span>pointed out by<span class="blank _1"></span> eac<span class="blank _1"></span>h of the </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y36 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">perspectives <span class="blank _0"> </span>discussed <span class="blank _3"> </span>here <span class="blank _0"> </span>have <span class="blank _0"> </span>affected <span class="blank _0"> </span>economic <span class="blank _0"> </span>growth. <span class="blank _3"> </span>In <span class="blank _0"> </span>particular, <span class="blank _3"> </span>we <span class="blank _0"> </span>ai<span class="blank _0"> </span>m <span class="blank _0"> </span>to <span class="blank _0"> </span>in<span class="blank _0"> </span>vestiga<span class="blank _1"></span>te <span class="blank _0"> </span>whether <span class="blank _0"> </span>th<span class="blank _0"> </span>ey<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>are<span class="blank _0"> </span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y37 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">able <span class="blank _1"></span>to <span class="blank _4"></span>explain the<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>downturn <span class="blank _4"></span>and t<span class="blank _1"></span>he <span class="blank _1"></span>recession <span class="blank _4"></span>in the<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>period <span class="blank _1"></span>analy<span class="blank _1"></span>zed. <span class="blank _1"></span>The <span class="blank _4"></span>results i<span class="blank _1"></span>ndicate, <span class="blank _1"></span>contrar<span class="lsc">il</span>y<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>to <span class="blank _1"></span>the <span class="blank _4"></span>orthodox </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y38 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">view, <span class="blank _3"> </span>that <span class="blank _3"> </span>spending <span class="blank _3"> </span>did <span class="blank _3"> </span>not <span class="blank _3"> </span>skyrocket <span class="blank _3"> </span>compared <span class="blank _3"> </span>to <span class="blank _3"> </span>previous <span class="blank _3"> </span>governments, <span class="blank _3"> </span>and <span class="blank _3"> </span>that <span class="blank _3"> </span>movements <span class="blank _3"> </span>in <span class="blank _3"> </span>output <span class="blank _3"> </span>tend <span class="blank _3"> </span>to </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y39 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">precede <span class="blank _0"> </span>changes <span class="blank _0"> </span>in <span class="blank _0"> </span>the <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>outcome. <span class="blank _0"> </span>The<span class="blank _0"> </span>y <span class="blank _0"> </span>also <span class="blank _0"> </span>point <span class="blank _0"> </span>to <span class="blank _0"> </span>the <span class="blank _0"> </span>importance <span class="blank _0"> </span>of <span class="blank _0"> </span>pub<span class="blank _0"> </span>lic in<span class="blank _0"> </span>vestment in<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>determining <span class="blank _0"> </span>the </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y3a ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pace <span class="blank _0"> </span>o<span class="blank _0"> </span>f <span class="blank _0"> </span>activity, <span class="blank _0"> </span>co<span class="blank _0"> </span>nfirming <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>central <span class="blank _3"> </span>element <span class="blank _3"> </span>of <span class="blank _0"> </span>the <span class="blank _3"> </span>heterodox <span class="blank _3"> </span>approach. <span class="blank _3"> </span>However, <span class="blank _0"> </span>by <span class="blank _3"> </span>revealing <span class="blank _0"> </span>th<span class="blank _0"> </span>at<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ls13 ws13">up</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>to <span class="blank _3"> </span>2014 </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y3b ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">public <span class="blank _0"> </span>spending <span class="blank _0"> </span>continued <span class="blank _0"> </span>to <span class="blank _0"> </span>grow, <span class="blank _0"> </span>indicates <span class="blank _0"> </span>th<span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>insufficie<span class="blank _1"></span>ncy <span class="blank _0"> </span>of <span class="blank _0"> </span>the <span class="blank _0"> </span>hete<span class="blank _0"> </span>rodox <span class="blank _0"> </span>thesis <span class="blank _0"> </span>to <span class="blank _0"> </span>explain <span class="blank _0"> </span>the <span class="blank _0"> </span>slowdown <span class="blank _0"> </span>in </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y3c ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">previous yea<span class="blank _1"></span>rs and the depth <span class="blank _1"></span>of the <span class="blank _1"></span>subsequent recess<span class="blank _1"></span>ion. Given this, <span class="blank _1"></span>we <span class="blank _1"></span>present additional explanatory<span class="blank _1"></span> elements <span class="blank _1"></span>to </div><div class="t m0 xc h9 y3d ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">understand the period. </div><div class="t m0 xc h8 y3e ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws14">Keywords<span class="ff3 ws12">: Fiscal policy, Recession<span class="ls3">, </span>Public investment, VAR model. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h8 y3f ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws5">JEL<span class="ff3 ws12"> E62, O23. <span class="blank _b"> </span><span class="fs6 fc4 v3"> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc hf y40 ff6 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Introdução </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y41 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">A <span class="blank _4"></span>economia <span class="blank _1"></span>brasileir<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>passou <span class="blank _4"></span>progressivam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _1"></span>da <span class="blank _4"></span>desaceleração <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls12 ws15">ao<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="fc1 ws16">longo<span class="fc4 ws12"> <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="fc1 ws16">do<span class="fc4 ws12"> <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="fc1 ws16">pr<span class="blank _0"> </span>im<span class="blank _1"></span>eiro<span class="fc4 ws12"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y42 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws16">mandato<span class="fc4 ls11 ws12"> </span><span class="ws12">da <span class="blank _0"> </span>presidente <span class="blank _3"> </span>Dilm<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>para <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>recessão <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>partir <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>2015, <span class="blank _3"> </span>prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eiro <span class="blank _3"> </span>ano <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>se<span class="blank _0"> </span>u <span class="blank _3"> </span>segundo<span class="blank _1"></span> </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y43 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mandato. No <span class="blank _0"> </span>debat<span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>acroeconômico, a <span class="blank _3"> </span>condução <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>assum<span class="blank _1"></span>iu <span class="blank _0"> </span>papel <span class="blank _0"> </span>central <span class="blank _0"> </span>n<span class="lsb">a </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y44 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws16">explica<span class="ls12 ws15">ção</span><span class="ws12"> <span class="blank _0"> </span>d<span class="ls12">essa <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>trajetória, <span class="blank _0"> </span>tanto <span class="blank _3"> </span>no <span class="blank _3"> </span>cam<span class="blank _1"></span>po <span class="blank _0"> </span>da<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>or<span class="blank _0"> </span>todo<span class="blank _1"></span>xia <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _0"> </span>no <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>heterodox<span class="blank _1"></span>ia. <span class="blank _0"> </span>Tal <span class="blank _3"> </span>papel, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y45 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">todavia, é visto por <span class="blank _1"></span>esses ca<span class="blank _1"></span>mpos sob perspectivas n<span class="blank _1"></span>ão apenas dist<span class="blank _1"></span>intas, com<span class="blank _1"></span>o antagônicas. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y46 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Chamam<span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eira <span class="blank _4"></span>delas, <span class="blank _4"></span>exposta <span class="blank _4"></span>em <span class="blank _4"></span>textos <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>autores <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>o<span class="blank _1"></span>rientação <span class="blank _4"></span>ortodoxa <span class="blank _4"></span>com<span class="blank _1"></span>o </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y47 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Barbosa <span class="blank _3"> </span>Filho <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>Pessoa <span class="blank _3"> </span>(2014), <span class="blank _3"> </span>Barbosa <span class="blank _5"> </span>Filho <span class="blank _3"> </span>(2015), <span class="blank _3"> </span>Mesquita <span class="blank _5"> </span>(2014), <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ls12">e <span class="blank _5"> </span></span>Biasoto <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>Afonso </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y48 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">(2014), <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ff5">tese <span class="blank _1"></span>do <span class="blank _4"></span>des<span class="blank _0"> </span>contr<span class="blank _1"></span>ole<span class="ff3">. <span class="blank _1"></span>E<span class="blank _1"></span>la <span class="blank _1"></span>se <span class="blank _4"></span>popularizou <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>partir d<span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _1"></span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>eados <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>2<span class="blank _1"></span>013 <span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _4"></span>identifica, <span class="blank _1"></span>após </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y49 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a <span class="blank _9"> </span>cr<span class="blank _0"> </span>ise <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>2008 <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="ls12">e <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="lsb ws17">ai</span></span>nda <span class="blank _6"> </span>no <span class="blank _9"> </span>governo <span class="blank _9"> </span>Lula<span class="blank _0"> </span>, <span class="blank _9"> </span>uma <span class="blank _9"> </span>guinada <span class="blank _6"> </span>na <span class="blank _9"> </span>política <span class="blank _6"> </span>econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ica <span class="blank _6"> </span>que <span class="blank _9"> </span>teria <span class="blank _6"> </span>se </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mantido e <span class="blank _0"> </span>mesmo aprofundado <span class="blank _0"> </span>no <span class="blank _0"> </span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno Dil<span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>a, <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>cujo <span class="blank _0"> </span>centro estaria uma <span class="blank _0"> </span>visão do <span class="blank _0"> </span>papel </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do Estado na dinâmica do crescimento <span class="blank _0"> </span>econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ico que justificaria a condução de uma política </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">fiscal exp<span class="blank _1"></span>ansionista. Es<span class="blank _1"></span>ta polí<span class="blank _1"></span>tica teria <span class="blank _1"></span>levado <span class="blank _1"></span>ao aum<span class="blank _1"></span>ento de<span class="blank _1"></span>scontrolado <span class="blank _1"></span>d<span class="ls14 ws18">os</span> gastos públ<span class="blank _1"></span>icos <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="lsb">e </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">à <span class="blank _0"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>situação <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal, <span class="blank _0"> </span>com <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>geração <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>déficits primários <span class="blank _3"> </span>crescentes <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>aumento </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">da <span class="blank _4"></span>dívida <span class="blank _4"></span>pública <span class="blank _4"></span>que, <span class="blank _4"></span>ao <span class="blank _1"></span>lev<span class="blank _1"></span>ar <span class="blank _4"></span>à <span class="blank _4"></span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>edução <span class="blank _4"></span>na <span class="blank _4"></span>confiança <span class="blank _4"></span>dos <span class="blank _4"></span>agentes <span class="blank _4"></span>econômicos, <span class="blank _4"></span>teria <span class="blank _4"></span>conduzido </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">à <span class="blank _0"> </span>queda dos <span class="blank _0"> </span>investim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos <span class="blank _0"> </span>e, esta, <span class="blank _0"> </span>à <span class="blank _0"> </span>recessão. Nesta i<span class="blank _0"> </span>nterpre<span class="blank _1"></span>tação, a<span class="blank _0"> </span> política fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>no <span class="blank _0"> </span>período<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y50 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">teria sido expansionis<span class="blank _1"></span>ta, o que teria produz<span class="blank _1"></span>ido a crise fiscal que, por sua v<span class="blank _1"></span>ez, teria precedido <span class="lsb">e </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y51 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">seria a principa<span class="blank _1"></span>l responsável pela desac<span class="blank _1"></span>eleração da eco<span class="blank _1"></span>nom<span class="blank _1"></span>ia. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y52 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Já <span class="blank _9"> </span>na <span class="blank _9"> </span>se<span class="blank _0"> </span>gunda <span class="blank _5"> </span>perspectiva, <span class="blank _9"> </span>que <span class="blank _9"> </span>chamamos <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="ff5">tese <span class="blank _6"> </span>da <span class="blank _5"> </span>i<span class="blank _0"> </span>nflexão</span>, <span class="blank _9"> </span>decisões <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="ls14 ws19">de</span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>política </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y53 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>inspiração <span class="blank _0"> </span>ortodoxa <span class="blank _0"> </span>tomadas <span class="blank _0"> </span>pelo <span class="blank _0"> </span>governo <span class="blank _0"> </span>Dilma <span class="blank _0"> </span>teriam <span class="blank _0"> </span>levado <span class="blank _3"> </span>à <span class="blank _0"> </span>queda <span class="blank _0"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>gas<span class="blank _1"></span>tos, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y54 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">principalmente <span class="blank _6"> </span>dos <span class="blank _2"> </span>investim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos <span class="blank _2"> </span>públicos, <span class="blank _2"> </span>c<span class="blank _1"></span>omprom<span class="blank _1"></span>etendo <span class="blank _2"> </span>um <span class="blank _6"> </span>elemento <span class="blank _2"> </span>central <span class="blank _2"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>bem-</div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y55 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">sucedido modelo d<span class="blank _1"></span>e crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento econômico im<span class="blank _1"></span>pulsionado pe<span class="blank _1"></span>la demanda im<span class="blank _1"></span>plantado ainda no<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y56 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">governo Lul<span class="blank _1"></span>a. O <span class="blank _1"></span>ajuste em<span class="blank _1"></span> que se <span class="blank _4"></span>i<span class="blank _0"> </span>nsere <span class="blank _1"></span>a queda <span class="blank _1"></span>dos gasto<span class="blank _1"></span>s estaria <span class="blank _1"></span>na r<span class="blank _1"></span>aiz da de<span class="blank _1"></span>saceleração <span class="blank _1"></span>da<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y57 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">economia <span class="blank _3"> </span>registrada <span class="blank _3"> </span>entre <span class="blank _3"> </span>2011 <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>2014 <span class="blank _0"> </span>(Serrano;<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>Summ<span class="blank _1"></span>a, <span class="blank _3"> </span>2015) <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>ecessão <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>2015, <span class="blank _3"> </span>que </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y58 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">teria <span class="blank _6"> </span>levado <span class="blank _6"> </span>à <span class="blank _2"> </span>queda <span class="blank _9"> </span>das<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>receitas <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>à <span class="blank _2"> </span>crise <span class="blank _9"> </span>fiscal. <span class="blank _2"> </span><span class="ls15 ws1a">Em</span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>interpretação <span class="blank _6"> </span>com <span class="blank _9"> </span>vários <span class="blank _2"> </span>pontos <span class="blank _6"> </span>em </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y59 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">comum, <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="fc4">Gobetti <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>Orair <span class="blank _5"> </span>(2015) <span class="blank _3"> </span>atribuem <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _5"> </span>desaceleração <span class="blank _5"> </span>não <span class="blank _3"> </span>à <span class="blank _5"> </span>redução, <span class="blank _3"> </span>mas <span class="blank _5"> </span>à <span class="blank _3"> </span>mudança <span class="blank _5"> </span>na </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5a ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">composição <span class="blank _1"></span>do <span class="blank _1"></span>gasto <span class="blank _1"></span>púb<span class="blank _1"></span>lico, <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>teria <span class="blank _1"></span>visto <span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _4"></span>investimentos <span class="blank _1"></span>serem <span class="blank _4"></span>par<span class="blank _0"> </span>cialm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _1"></span>substituídos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5b ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">pelas <span class="blank _5"> </span>desonerações <span class="blank _3"> </span>tributárias <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _9"> </span>os <span class="blank _5"> </span>subsídios, <span class="blank _5"> </span>os <span class="blank _5"> </span>quais, <span class="blank _5"> </span>como <span class="blank _5"> </span>mostrado <span class="blank _5"> </span>por <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="fc1">Orair, <span class="blank _3"> </span>Gobetti <span class="blank _5"> </span>e </span></div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf3" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="3"><div class="pc pc3 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y5c w1 h11" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg3.png"><div class="t m0 x11 h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Descontrole ou i<span class="blank _1"></span>nflexão? A pol<span class="blank _1"></span>ítica fis<span class="blank _1"></span>cal do governo <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma e a cri<span class="blank _1"></span>se econômica </div><div class="t m0 xc h4 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span>. <span class="blank _a"> </span><span class="ls5 ws1">813</span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Siqueira <span class="blank _2"> </span>(2016),<span class="fc4"> <span class="blank _6"> </span>t<span class="blank _0"> </span>eriam<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>ef<span class="blank _0"> </span>eitos <span class="blank _2"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>ultiplicadores <span class="blank _2"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>enores, <span class="blank _2"> </span>especialmente <span class="blank _6"> </span>nas<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>re<span class="blank _1"></span>cessões. <span class="blank _2"> </span>Em </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5e ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">ambas <span class="blank _c"> </span>as <span class="blank _c"> </span>int<span class="blank _0"> </span>erp<span class="blank _1"></span>retações, <span class="blank _c"> </span><span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _c"> </span></span><span class="fc1 ws16">política</span><span class="ls16"> </span><span class="fc1 ws16">fiscal</span> <span class="blank _c"> </span>teria <span class="blank _d"> </span>sido <span class="blank _c"> </span><span class="fc1 ws16">contracionista</span><span class="ls16"> </span><span class="fc1">e, <span class="blank _c"> </span>assim, <span class="blank _c"> </span>levado <span class="blank _c"> </span>à </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">desaceleração da <span class="blank _3"> </span>economia <span class="blank _0"> </span>que, <span class="blank _0"> </span>portanto, <span class="blank _0"> </span>teria <span class="blank _0"> </span>precedido <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls12">e <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>seria <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>principal <span class="blank _0"> </span>responsáv<span class="blank _1"></span>el <span class="blank _0"> </span>pela </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y60 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crise fiscal. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y61 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">A <span class="blank _4"></span>contradição <span class="blank _4"></span>entre <span class="blank _4"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span>duas <span class="blank _4"></span>perspectiv<span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls12">é <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls4">resultado <span class="blank _4"></span>não <span class="blank _4"></span>apenas <span class="blank _4"></span>das <span class="blank _4"></span>diferença<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _4"></span>teóricas, </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y62 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mas <span class="blank _1"></span>também <span class="blank _1"></span>do conjunto d<span class="blank _1"></span>e ev<span class="blank _1"></span>idências que <span class="blank _1"></span>os anal<span class="blank _1"></span>istas asso<span class="blank _1"></span>ciados a <span class="blank _1"></span>cada um<span class="blank _1"></span>a del<span class="blank _1"></span>as prefe<span class="blank _1"></span>rem </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y63 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">enfatizar. Enquanto <span class="blank _0"> </span>os defensores da <span class="blank _0"> </span>tese <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>descontrole se <span class="blank _0"> </span>concentram<span class="blank _1"></span> na <span class="blank _0"> </span>piora <span class="blank _0"> </span>do res<span class="blank _0"> </span>ultado<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y64 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">primário <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>na <span class="blank _3"> </span>continuidade <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>crescimento <span class="blank _3"> </span>das <span class="blank _3"> </span>despes<span class="blank _1"></span>as, <span class="blank _3"> </span>os <span class="blank _3"> </span>defensores<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>tese <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>inflexão <span class="blank _0"> </span>e </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y65 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">ajuste <span class="blank _4"></span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>ecessiv<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _1"></span>destacam<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>redução o<span class="blank _1"></span>corrida <span class="blank _4"></span>no <span class="blank _1"></span>ritmo <span class="blank _4"></span>desse cr<span class="blank _1"></span>escimento. <span class="blank _4"></span>Nas <span class="blank _1"></span>próxim<span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span>se<span class="blank _0"> </span>ções </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y66 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">integraremos <span class="blank _0"> </span>um conj<span class="blank _0"> </span>unto <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>evidências <span class="blank _0"> </span>empíricas <span class="blank _0"> </span>para <span class="blank _3"> </span>verificar se<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>como <span class="blank _0"> </span>cada <span class="blank _3"> </span>um<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>dessas </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y67 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">visões <span class="blank _0"> </span>pode <span class="blank _0"> </span>contribuir <span class="blank _0"> </span>para <span class="blank _0"> </span>entender <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _3"> </span>papel <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls14 ws1b">da</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>polític<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>governo <span class="blank _0"> </span>Dilma <span class="blank _0"> </span>na <span class="blank _0"> </span>gestação </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y68 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">da desaceleraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ão da econom<span class="blank _1"></span>ia e na recessão que se ap<span class="blank _1"></span>rofundou no paí<span class="blank _1"></span>s a partir de 2015. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y69 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Mostraremos <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _4"></span>algumas <span class="blank _4"></span>das <span class="blank _4"></span>id<span class="blank _0"> </span>eias <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _4"></span>se <span class="blank _4"></span>t<span class="blank _0"> </span>ransform<span class="blank _1"></span>aram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _4"></span>e<span class="blank _0"> </span>m <span class="blank _4"></span>senso <span class="blank _4"></span>comum <span class="blank _4"></span>no <span class="blank _1"></span>último </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">período <span class="blank _d"> </span>simplesm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _d"> </span>não <span class="blank _d"> </span>refletem <span class="blank _c"> </span>a <span class="blank _d"> </span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>ealidade <span class="blank _c"> </span>e <span class="blank _d"> </span>que<span class="blank _0"> </span>, <span class="blank _d"> </span>com <span class="blank _c"> </span>exceção <span class="blank _d"> </span>da <span class="blank _d"> </span>redução <span class="blank _d"> </span>dos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">investim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos <span class="blank _1"></span>públi<span class="blank _1"></span>cos <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>partir <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>2015,<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>política <span class="blank _1"></span>fiscal<span class="blank _1"></span>, <span class="blank _4"></span>não t<span class="blank _1"></span>endo <span class="blank _4"></span>sido <span class="blank _1"></span>pautada <span class="blank _4"></span>até <span class="blank _4"></span>então <span class="blank _1"></span>pelos<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">excessos <span class="blank _5"> </span>que <span class="blank _5"> </span>se <span class="blank _9"> </span>lhe <span class="blank _5"> </span>atribui, <span class="blank _9"> </span>exerceu <span class="blank _5"> </span>no <span class="blank _9"> </span>período <span class="blank _5"> </span>um <span class="blank _5"> </span>pape<span class="blank _0"> </span>l <span class="blank _5"> </span>menos <span class="blank _5"> </span>decisivo <span class="blank _5"> </span>do <span class="blank _9"> </span>que <span class="blank _9"> </span>ambas <span class="blank _5"> </span>as </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">visões aqui discut<span class="blank _1"></span>idas imputam<span class="blank _1"></span> nos desenvolvim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos que conduziram<span class="blank _1"></span> à crise. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y6e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Com <span class="blank _2"> </span>esse <span class="blank _2"> </span>objetivo, <span class="blank _2"> </span>além<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>desta <span class="blank _2"> </span>introdução, <span class="blank _2"> </span>o <span class="blank _2"> </span>artigo <span class="blank _2"> </span>é <span class="blank _2"> </span>composto <span class="blank _2"> </span>por <span class="blank _2"> </span>outras <span class="blank _2"> </span>quatro </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">seções. <span class="blank _3"> </span>Na <span class="blank _3"> </span>próxima, <span class="blank _3"> </span>examinam<span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>evolução <span class="blank _3"> </span>das <span class="blank _5"> </span>prin<span class="blank _1"></span>cipais <span class="blank _5"> </span>variáveis <span class="blank _3"> </span>relacionad<span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _3"> </span>à <span class="blank _3"> </span>política </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y70 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">fiscal <span class="blank _3"> </span>ao <span class="blank _3"> </span>longo <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>um <span class="blank _3"> </span>período <span class="blank _0"> </span>amplo <span class="blank _3"> </span>buscando <span class="blank _3"> </span>verificar <span class="blank _0"> </span>se <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>tese <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>descontrol<span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>gastos, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y71 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">defendida <span class="blank _3"> </span>majorita<span class="blank _1"></span>riamente<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>pela <span class="blank _3"> </span>ortodoxia <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _3"> </span>economia <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _5"> </span>aponta <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>explosão <span class="blank _0"> </span>dos <span class="blank _5"> </span>gastos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y72 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">públicos no <span class="blank _1"></span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno Dilm<span class="blank _1"></span>a com<span class="blank _1"></span>o principa<span class="blank _1"></span>l respon<span class="blank _1"></span>sável <span class="blank _1"></span>pelas crises <span class="blank _1"></span>fiscal <span class="blank _1"></span>e econ<span class="blank _1"></span>ôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ica, possui </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y73 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">amparo <span class="blank _0"> </span>nos <span class="blank _0"> </span>dados. <span class="blank _0"> </span>Na <span class="blank _0"> </span>seção <span class="blank _0"> </span>2 <span class="blank _0"> </span>investigamos <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls17 ws1c">se</span>, <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>sentido <span class="blank _0"> </span>oposto <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>como <span class="blank _0"> </span>apontam<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>analistas </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y74 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">heterodoxos <span class="blank _4"></span>de m<span class="blank _1"></span>atriz <span class="blank _4"></span>keynesiana, <span class="blank _4"></span>teria <span class="blank _1"></span>ocorrido <span class="blank _4"></span>nesse <span class="blank _1"></span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>overno <span class="blank _1"></span>uma <span class="blank _1"></span>inflexão <span class="blank _4"></span>contracionis<span class="blank _1"></span>ta <span class="blank _1"></span>na<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y75 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal que <span class="blank _3"> </span>teria deprimido <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>investimento<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>comprometido <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento. <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls18 ws1d">Na</span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>seção </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y76 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">3 <span class="blank _0"> </span>apresentamos <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>res<span class="blank _0"> </span>ultad<span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>exercícios <span class="blank _0"> </span>realizados com <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _3"> </span>auxílio <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>várias <span class="blank _0"> </span>especificações </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y77 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _0"> </span>um <span class="blank _0"> </span>modelo de <span class="blank _0"> </span>Vetores <span class="blank _0"> </span>Auto-Regressivos <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ff9 ws16">\u2013</span> VAR <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _0"> </span>revelam as <span class="blank _0"> </span>relações <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>antecedênci<span class="blank _1"></span>a </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y78 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">temporal <span class="blank _5"> </span>entre <span class="blank _9"> </span>as <span class="blank _9"> </span>variáveis <span class="blank _9"> </span>fiscais <span class="blank _9"> </span>e <span class="blank _9"> </span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>produto<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>mostram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>em <span class="blank _5"> </span>que <span class="blank _6"> </span>medida <span class="blank _9"> </span>os <span class="blank _9"> </span>elementos <span class="blank _9"> </span>da </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y79 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">política <span class="blank _1"></span>fiscal <span class="blank _4"></span>apontados <span class="blank _1"></span>por <span class="blank _4"></span>cada um<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>das <span class="blank _4"></span>perspectivas <span class="blank _1"></span>aqui <span class="blank _4"></span>di<span class="blank _0"> </span>scutida<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _1"></span>afetaram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _1"></span>crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y7a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">no <span class="blank _0"> </span>período <span class="blank _3"> </span>e, <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>es<span class="blank _0"> </span>pecial, <span class="blank _0"> </span>se <span class="blank _0"> </span>são <span class="blank _3"> </span>capazes <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>explicar <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>desaceleração <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>economia <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>país <span class="blank _0"> </span>e </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y7b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">seu <span class="blank"> </span>mergulho <span class="blank"> </span>na <span class="blank"> </span>profund<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank"> </span>recessão. <span class="blank"> </span>Finalm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente, <span class="blank"> </span>na <span class="blank"> </span>quarta <span class="blank"> </span>e <span class="blank"> </span>última <span class="blank"> </span>seção <span class="blank"> </span>i<span class="blank _1"></span>ntroduzim<span class="blank _1"></span>os </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y7c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">algum<span class="blank _1"></span>as considerações sobre as <span class="blank _0"> </span>restriçõe<span class="blank _1"></span>s que a <span class="blank _0"> </span>condução da política fiscal enfrentou durante </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y7d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">o <span class="blank _0"> </span>governo <span class="blank _0"> </span>Dilma e <span class="blank _0"> </span>sugerimos <span class="blank _0"> </span>elementos <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _0"> </span>vão <span class="blank _0"> </span>além daqueles <span class="blank _0"> </span>relacionados <span class="blank _0"> </span>à <span class="blank _0"> </span>política fiscal </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y7e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">para explicar a cr<span class="blank _1"></span>ise econô<span class="blank _1"></span>mica que se apro<span class="blank _1"></span>fundou a partir de 201<span class="blank _1"></span>5. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y7f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y2d ff6 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">1 Descontrole do<span class="blank _1"></span>s gastos e<span class="blank _1"></span> a desaceleração da e<span class="blank _1"></span>conomia </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y80 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws16">Par<span class="lsb ws12">a <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ls4">inicialmente <span class="blank _3"> </span>verificar <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls17 ws1c">se</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>explosão <span class="blank _0"> </span>das <span class="blank _3"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>sugerida <span class="blank _3"> </span>pela <span class="blank _0"> </span>tese </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y81 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do <span class="blank"> </span>descontrole <span class="blank"> </span>efetivam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank"> </span>ocorreu <span class="blank"> </span>e, <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank"> </span>partir <span class="blank"> </span>daí, <span class="blank"> </span>avaliar <span class="blank"> </span>como <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank _7"> </span>pol<span class="blank _0"> </span>ítica <span class="blank"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank"> </span>teria<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y82 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">conduzido a econom<span class="blank _1"></span>ia do país <span class="blank _1"></span>à desaceleraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ão e ao posterior m<span class="blank _1"></span>ergulho na reces<span class="blank _1"></span>são, iniciamos </div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf4" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="4"><div class="pc pc4 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y83 w1 h12" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg4.png"><div class="t m0 xc h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavs<span class="blank _1"></span>ky<span class="ls7">, </span>Esther <span class="blank _1"></span>Dweck<span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">Rodrigo<span class="blank _1"></span> Alves Teixeira </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls5 ws1">814<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _a"> </span>Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">esta <span class="blank _0"> </span>seção <span class="blank _3"> </span>apresentando <span class="blank _0"> </span>no <span class="blank _0"> </span>Gráfico <span class="blank _3"> </span>1 <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>trajetória <span class="blank _0"> </span>das <span class="blank _0"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>das <span class="blank _0"> </span>receitas <span class="blank _0"> </span>primária<span class="ls17">s <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>assim </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">como <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _3"> </span></span>do <span class="blank _5"> </span>resultado <span class="blank _3"> </span>primário <span class="blank _5"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>Governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>Central <span class="blank _3"> </span>(Governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>Federal <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>Banco <span class="blank _3"> </span>Central) <span class="blank _5"> </span>entre </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">1997 <span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _4"></span>2016, a<span class="blank _1"></span>justadas <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>modo <span class="blank _4"></span>a retira<span class="blank _1"></span>r <span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>efeito <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>fa<span class="blank _1"></span>tores <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>caráter <span class="blank _1"></span>excep<span class="blank _1"></span>cional <span class="blank _4"></span>e esporád<span class="blank _1"></span>ico </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y60 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que <span class="blank _0"> </span>alteraram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>resultados divulgados, <span class="blank _0"> </span>mas <span class="blank _0"> </span>não afetam a <span class="blank _0"> </span>demanda <span class="blank _0"> </span>agregada <span class="blank _0"> </span>e, <span class="blank _0"> </span>portanto,<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>não </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y84 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">devem<span class="blank _1"></span> ser aqui considerados</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x12 h13 y85 ff3 fs0 fc1 sc0 ls4">1</div></div><div class="t m0 x13 h10 y84 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y86 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls19 ws12"> <span class="fs4 ls4 v4">Gráfico 1 </span></div><div class="t m0 x14 h9 y3c ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws5">Receitas<span class="ls3 ws12">, <span class="ls4">despesas e resultado primário ajustados do Governo Central (R$ milhões de dez./2016) </span></span></div><div class="t m0 x15 h8 y87 ff6 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x16 h9 y88 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: STN ajustada. Elaboração dos autores. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y89 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y8a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Vemos <span class="blank _4"></span>no <span class="blank _4"></span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>ráfico <span class="blank _4"></span>que, <span class="blank _4"></span>excetuando <span class="blank _4"></span>2003, <span class="blank _4"></span>efetiv<span class="blank _1"></span>amente <span class="blank _4"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span>despesas <span class="blank _4"></span>p<span class="blank _1"></span>rimárias <span class="blank _4"></span>cresce<span class="blank _1"></span>ram </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y8b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de forma contínua <span class="blank _0"> </span>entre 1997 e 2014 em termos reai<span class="blank _0"> </span>s, tal <span class="blank _0"> </span>com<span class="blank _1"></span>o argumentam os def<span class="blank _0"> </span>ensores da </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y8c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">tese <span class="blank _c"> </span>do <span class="blank _8"> </span>descontrole. <span class="blank _e"> </span>Contudo, <span class="blank _8"> </span>es<span class="blank _0"> </span>tes <span class="blank _e"> </span>tendem <span class="blank _8"> </span><span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _c"> </span></span>ig<span class="blank _1"></span>norar <span class="blank _c"> </span>que <span class="blank _e"> </span>até <span class="blank _e"> </span>2013, <span class="blank _e"> </span>acompanhando <span class="blank _8"> </span>o </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y8d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crescimento <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank _2"> </span>PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B, <span class="blank _2"> </span>as <span class="blank _2"> </span>recei<span class="blank _1"></span>tas <span class="blank _2"> </span>necessár<span class="blank _1"></span>ias <span class="blank _2"> </span>para<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>cus<span class="blank _1"></span>tear <span class="blank _2"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>aumento <span class="blank _2"> </span>das <span class="blank _6"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _2"> </span>também </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y8e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">cresciam, <span class="blank _4"></span>permitindo <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>geração <span class="blank _4"></span>contínua <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>superávit<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _1"></span>primários <span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _4"></span>a redução <span class="blank _4"></span>da dív<span class="blank _1"></span>ida <span class="blank _1"></span>pública<span class="ls14">. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y8f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Até <span class="blank _3"> </span>2008 <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>novam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _3"> </span>em <span class="blank _3"> </span>2011, <span class="blank _3"> </span>inclusive, <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _5"> </span>crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _3"> </span>das <span class="blank _3"> </span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>eceita<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _3"> </span>totais <span class="blank _3"> </span>era <span class="blank _3"> </span>mais <span class="blank _3"> </span>rápido </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y90 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que <span class="blank _5"> </span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>das <span class="blank _5"> </span>despesas. <span class="blank _9"> </span>No <span class="blank _5"> </span>caso <span class="blank _5"> </span>específico <span class="blank _5"> </span>das <span class="blank _5"> </span>r<span class="blank _0"> </span>eceitas<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _5"> </span>previdenciárias, <span class="blank _5"> </span>o <span class="blank _5"> </span>mercado <span class="blank _5"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>t<span class="blank _0"> </span>rabalho </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y91 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">aquecido <span class="blank _4"></span>fez <span class="blank _4"></span>com <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _4"></span>elas <span class="blank _1"></span>crescessem<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _4"></span>à <span class="blank _1"></span>frente <span class="blank _4"></span>das <span class="blank _1"></span>despesas <span class="blank _4"></span>até <span class="blank _1"></span>2014. <span class="blank _4"></span>Esses <span class="blank _4"></span>analistas <span class="blank _4"></span>tampouco </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y92 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">vêm que no prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eiro governo Dilma, justamente quan<span class="blank _1"></span>do as críticas em relação <span class="lsb ws1e">ao</span> descontrole </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y93 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">dos <span class="blank _4"></span>gastos <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls17 ws1c">se<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _4"></span>acentuaram, <span class="blank _4"></span>sua <span class="blank _4"></span>taxa <span class="blank _4"></span>média <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>crescimento <span class="blank _4"></span>anual <span class="blank _4"></span>não <span class="blank _4"></span>somente <span class="blank _4"></span>não <span class="blank _4"></span>disparou <span class="blank _4"></span>como </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y94 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">foi <span class="blank _4"></span>inferior <span class="blank _1"></span>àque<span class="blank _1"></span>la <span class="blank _4"></span>registrada <span class="blank _4"></span>nos <span class="blank _1"></span>dois <span class="blank _4"></span>quadriênio<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _4"></span>anteriores, <span class="blank _4"></span>e <span class="blank _1"></span>pratic<span class="blank _1"></span>amente <span class="blank _4"></span>igual <span class="blank _1"></span>à <span class="blank _4"></span>do <span class="blank _4"></span>segundo </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y95 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">governo FHC, com<span class="blank _1"></span>o m<span class="blank _1"></span>ostra o Gráfico 2<span class="ff6"> </span>a seguir<span class="ls14">. </span> </div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 xc h5 y96 ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div></div><div class="t m0 xe h5 y96 ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 hd y2e ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">(</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x17 hd y2e ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">1</div></div><div class="t m0 x18 hd y2e ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls1a ws12">) <span class="ls4">É <span class="blank _0"> </span>o caso do depósito (2008) e saqu<span class="blank _1"></span>e (2012) do Fundo Soberano, da capit<span class="blank _1"></span>alização da Petrobrás<span class="blank _1"></span> e da cessão onerosa </span></div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y97 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>barris <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>petróleo <span class="blank _3"> </span>(2010), <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>compensação <span class="blank _3"> </span>pelas <span class="blank _0"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>esone<span class="blank _1"></span>rações <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>folha <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>pagamentos <span class="blank _3"> </span>(2012 <span class="blank _3"> </span>em <span class="blank _3"> </span>diante) <span class="blank _3"> </span>bem <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _3"> </span>do </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y30 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pagamento dos pas<span class="blank _1"></span>sivos apontados pe<span class="blank _1"></span>lo T<span class="blank _1"></span>CU (afetando principalme<span class="blank _1"></span>nte a par<span class="blank _1"></span>tir de 2010). Em com<span class="blank _1"></span>pensação, <span class="blank _1"></span>não foi retirado <span class="blank _1"></span>do </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y98 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">primário <span class="blank _3"> </span>o <span class="blank _3"> </span>efeito <span class="blank _3"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>REFIS <span class="blank _3"> </span>tributários <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _3"> </span>se <span class="blank _3"> </span>costuma <span class="blank _3"> </span>fazer <span class="blank _3"> </span>nos <span class="blank _3"> </span>cá<span class="blank _0"> </span>lc<span class="blank _1"></span>ulos <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>primário <span class="blank _3"> </span>recorre<span class="blank _1"></span>nte, <span class="blank _3"> </span>pois <span class="blank _5"> </span>o <span class="blank _3"> </span>refinanciame<span class="blank _1"></span>nto </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">envolve<span class="blank _1"></span> o pagamento efetivo<span class="blank _1"></span> das empre<span class="blank _1"></span>sas. </div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf5" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="5"><div class="pc pc5 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y99 w1 h14" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg5.png"><div class="t m0 x11 h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Descontrole ou i<span class="blank _1"></span>nflexão? A pol<span class="blank _1"></span>ítica fis<span class="blank _1"></span>cal do governo <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma e a cri<span class="blank _1"></span>se econômica </div><div class="t m0 xc h4 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span>. <span class="blank _a"> </span><span class="ls5 ws1">815</span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 x1a h9 y34 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Gráfico 2 </div><div class="t m0 x1b h9 y35 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Crescimento anual das receitas e despesas primárias ajustadas do </div><div class="t m0 x1c h9 y36 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Governo Central por período de governo (% a.a.) </div><div class="t m0 x1d h9 y9a ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x16 h9 y9b ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: STN ajustada. Elaboração dos autores. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y9c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y9d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Tampouco <span class="blank _0"> </span>vêm<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>eles <span class="blank _0"> </span>que, <span class="blank _0"> </span>pela <span class="blank _0"> </span>prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eira <span class="blank _0"> </span>vez desde <span class="blank _0"> </span>2003, <span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>2015 <span class="blank _0"> </span>esses <span class="blank _0"> </span>gastos caíram </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y9e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">em termos r<span class="blank _0"> </span>eais, o <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _0"> </span>não somente não <span class="blank _0"> </span>impediu a <span class="blank _0"> </span>queda de <span class="blank _0"> </span>3,5% no <span class="blank _0"> </span>PIB daquele ano <span class="blank _0"> </span>como<span class="ls1b">, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y9f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">ao <span class="blank _2"> </span>co<span class="blank _1"></span>ntrário, <span class="blank _6"> </span>provavelm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _2"> </span>para<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>ela <span class="blank _2"> </span>contribuiu. <span class="blank _6"> </span>Finalm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente, <span class="blank _2"> </span>desco<span class="blank _1"></span>nsideram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>que <span class="blank _6"> </span>quando <span class="blank _6"> </span>a </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya0 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">despesa <span class="blank _f"> </span>primária <span class="blank _2"> </span>é <span class="blank _f"> </span>analisada <span class="blank _f"> </span>como <span class="blank _f"> </span>percentual <span class="blank _f"> </span>do <span class="blank _f"> </span>PIB, <span class="blank _f"> </span>o <span class="blank _f"> </span>crescimento <span class="blank _f"> </span>quase <span class="blank _f"> </span>contínuo <span class="blank _2"> </span>foi </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya1 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">interrompido já <span class="blank _0"> </span>em 2009 <span class="blank _0"> </span>e somente <span class="blank _0"> </span>foi <span class="blank _0"> </span>retomado em 2014, <span class="blank _0"> </span>então <span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>uito <span class="blank _0"> </span>mais pela <span class="blank _0"> </span>estagnação </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya2 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">e <span class="blank _9"> </span>posterior <span class="blank _9"> </span>retração <span class="blank _9"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>PIB <span class="blank _9"> </span>do <span class="blank _9"> </span>que <span class="blank _6"> </span>pela <span class="blank _9"> </span>aceleração <span class="blank _5"> </span>dos <span class="blank _6"> </span>gastos. <span class="blank _9"> </span>Ou <span class="blank _9"> </span>seja, <span class="blank _6"> </span>na <span class="blank _9"> </span>maior <span class="blank _9"> </span>parte <span class="blank _9"> </span>do </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya3 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">primeiro <span class="blank _3"> </span>governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>Dilm<span class="blank _1"></span>a, <span class="blank _3"> </span>as<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _3"> </span>prim<span class="blank _1"></span>árias <span class="blank _3"> </span>não <span class="blank _3"> </span>só <span class="blank _5"> </span>cresceram <span class="blank _3"> </span>menos <span class="blank _3"> </span>em <span class="blank _3"> </span>termos <span class="blank _3"> </span>reais <span class="blank _3"> </span>do </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya4 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que nos períodos anteriores, com<span class="blank _1"></span>o também perm<span class="blank _1"></span>aneceram<span class="blank _1"></span> estáveis como proporção do PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B, o </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya5 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que torna difíci<span class="blank _1"></span>l sustentar que te<span class="blank _1"></span>ria ocorrido um<span class="blank _1"></span> descontrole no período<span class="blank _1"></span>. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 ya6 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">A <span class="blank _1"></span>piora <span class="blank _4"></span>na <span class="blank _1"></span>situação <span class="blank _4"></span>fiscal <span class="blank _1"></span>ao <span class="blank _4"></span>longo <span class="blank _1"></span>do <span class="blank _4"></span>governo <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma <span class="blank _4"></span>e <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>eração <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls14 ws1f">de<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _1"></span>déficits <span class="blank _4"></span>crescentes </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya7 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a <span class="blank _3"> </span>partir <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>2014 <span class="blank _3"> </span>devem, <span class="blank _0"> </span>por<span class="blank _0"> </span>tanto, <span class="blank _0"> </span>s<span class="lsb ws1e">er<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>atribuíd<span class="lsb ws1e">as</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>não <span class="blank _3"> </span>à <span class="blank _0"> </span>aceleração <span class="blank _3"> </span>dessas <span class="blank _3"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _0"> </span>que, <span class="blank _3"> </span>como </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya8 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">vimos, não ocorreu, mas, sim, à desaceleração do crescimento das receitas desde 2009 e a sua </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ya9 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">intensa queda <span class="blank _1"></span>em <span class="blank _1"></span>termos re<span class="blank _1"></span>a<span class="ls1c ws20">is</span> a pa<span class="blank _1"></span>rtir de <span class="blank _1"></span>2014. Com<span class="blank _1"></span>o citado, de<span class="blank _1"></span>sde ao <span class="blank _1"></span>menos 199<span class="blank _1"></span>7 as <span class="blank _1"></span>receitas </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yaa ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws16">cresc<span class="ls1d ws21">ia</span><span class="ws12">m <span class="blank _7"> </span>conti<span class="blank _0"> </span>nuamente <span class="blank"> </span>à <span class="blank _8"> </span>frente <span class="blank _8"> </span>das <span class="blank _7"> </span>despesas, <span class="blank _8"> </span>o <span class="blank _8"> </span>que <span class="blank _8"> </span>seguiu <span class="blank _8"> </span>até <span class="blank _8"> </span>2008. <span class="blank _7"> </span>Até <span class="blank _8"> </span>2002, <span class="blank _8"> </span>esse </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yab ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crescimento <span class="blank _9"> </span>apoiou-<span class="ls17">se <span class="blank _6"> </span></span>no <span class="blank _6"> </span>aumento <span class="blank _9"> </span>das<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>alíquotas <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>impostos <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>contribuições, <span class="blank _9"> </span>que <span class="blank _6"> </span>levou <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="ls12">a </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yac ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">participação de ambos no<span class="blank _0"> </span> PIB <span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>passar de <span class="blank _0"> </span>10,7% para <span class="blank _0"> </span>14,8%. Nos anos <span class="blank _0"> </span>seguintes, e <span class="blank _0"> </span>até 2008, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yad ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a <span class="blank _3"> </span>receita <span class="blank _0"> </span>continuou <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>cresc<span class="blank _1"></span>er <span class="blank _3"> </span>fortemente<span class="blank _1"></span>, <span class="blank _3"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>as, <span class="blank _3"> </span>agora, <span class="blank _0"> </span>apoi<span class="blank _0"> </span>ada <span class="blank _0"> </span>na <span class="blank _3"> </span>expansão <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>economia <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>na </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yae ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">tendência <span class="blank _4"></span>à <span class="blank _1"></span>intensa <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls1e ws22">fo<span class="ls4 ws12">rmalização <span class="blank _4"></span>no <span class="blank _1"></span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>ercado <span class="blank _4"></span>de t<span class="blank _1"></span>rabalho, <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>permitiu <span class="blank _4"></span>manter <span class="blank _4"></span>sua <span class="blank _1"></span>participação<span class="blank _1"></span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yaf ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">no PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B rela<span class="blank _1"></span>tivamente <span class="blank _1"></span>estável <span class="blank _1"></span>a d<span class="blank _1"></span>espeito da<span class="blank _1"></span> pe<span class="blank _1"></span>rda da<span class="blank _1"></span> C<span class="blank _1"></span>PMF em<span class="blank _1"></span> 2007.<span class="blank _1"></span> Em<span class="blank _1"></span> 2009, <span class="blank _1"></span>entretan<span class="blank _1"></span>to, sob<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y96 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">os im<span class="blank _1"></span>pactos d<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>crise <span class="blank _1"></span>financ<span class="blank _1"></span>eira in<span class="blank _1"></span>ternacional <span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _1"></span>das <span class="blank _1"></span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>edidas <span class="blank _1"></span>tomadas <span class="blank _1"></span>pelo <span class="blank _1"></span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno para <span class="blank _1"></span>mitigá-</div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yb0 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls1c ws20">lo<span class="ls4 ws12">s, <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>arrecadação <span class="blank _1"></span>pra<span class="blank _1"></span>ticamente <span class="blank _1"></span>estag<span class="blank _1"></span>nou <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls12 ws15">em<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _1"></span>termos <span class="blank _4"></span>rea<span class="blank _0"> </span>is <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls12">e <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls4">a rece<span class="blank _1"></span>ita <span class="blank _1"></span>caiu <span class="blank _4"></span>como <span class="blank _1"></span>participação <span class="blank _4"></span>do </span></span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yb1 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">PIB. <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls18 ws1d">No</span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>iní<span class="blank _0"> </span>cio <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls14 ws19">do<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>governo <span class="blank _0"> </span>Dilma, <span class="blank _0"> </span>n<span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>esteira <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>recuperação <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _0"> </span>crise, <span class="blank _0"> </span>essa <span class="blank _3"> </span>particip<span class="blank _1"></span>ação <span class="blank _0"> </span>ainda </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y31 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">chegou a <span class="blank _0"> </span>crescer sem, contudo, <span class="blank _0"> </span>recup<span class="blank _1"></span>erar os <span class="blank _0"> </span>níveis anteriores. No <span class="blank _0"> </span>entanto, já <span class="ls12 ws15">em</span> 2012, <span class="blank _0"> </span>com o </div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf6" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="6"><div class="pc pc6 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 yb2 w1 h15" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg6.png"><div class="t m0 xc h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavs<span class="blank _1"></span>ky<span class="ls7">, </span>Esther <span class="blank _1"></span>Dweck<span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">Rodrigo<span class="blank _1"></span> Alves Teixeira </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls5 ws1">816<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _a"> </span>Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">impulso <span class="blank _3"> </span>dado <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ls12 ws15">às</span> <span class="blank _5"> </span>desoneraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ões <span class="blank _3"> </span>tributárias <span class="blank _3"> </span>para <span class="blank _3"> </span>estimular <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>atividade <span class="blank _5"> </span>econômica, <span class="blank _3"> </span>ela <span class="blank _3"> </span>voltou <span class="blank _3"> </span>a </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">cair <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>despencou <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>partir <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>2014<span class="blank _0"> </span>, <span class="blank _3"> </span>impulsionando <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _3"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _3"> </span>desde <span class="blank _3"> </span>então <span class="blank _3"> </span>(<span class="blank _0"> </span>Dweck<span class="blank _1"></span>; </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Teixeira, 2018).<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 yb3 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Mesmo que essa <span class="blank _0"> </span>deterioraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ão não t<span class="blank _0"> </span>enha sido causada por uma explosão das <span class="blank _0"> </span>despesas, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y61 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a política fiscal ainda poderia ser apon<span class="blank _1"></span>tada com<span class="blank _1"></span>o responsável pelo aum<span class="blank _1"></span>ento da dívida pública<span class="ls14">, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y62 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que <span class="blank _0"> </span>afetaria negativamente <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>confiança dos <span class="blank _0"> </span>agentes na <span class="blank _0"> </span>solvência <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>setor público <span class="blank _0"> </span>e, <span class="blank _0"> </span>por <span class="blank _0"> </span>meio<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y63 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do impacto da que<span class="blank _1"></span>da na confiança sobr<span class="blank _1"></span>e os investim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos, o crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento da econom<span class="blank _1"></span>ia. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 yd ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Com <span class="blank _4"></span>efeito, <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>eração <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>d<span class="blank _1"></span>éficits <span class="blank _4"></span>primários <span class="blank _4"></span>contribu<span class="ls1c ws20">iu</span> <span class="blank _4"></span>para <span class="blank _4"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>aumento <span class="blank _4"></span>da <span class="blank _4"></span>dívida <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>partir </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yb4 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _5"> </span>2014. <span class="blank _5"> </span>Todavia<span class="ls14">, <span class="blank _5"> </span></span>quando <span class="blank _5"> </span>analisamos <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _9"> </span>evolução <span class="blank _5"> </span>desta <span class="blank _3"> </span>em <span class="blank _5"> </span>relação <span class="blank _5"> </span>ao <span class="blank _5"> </span>PIB, <span class="blank _5"> </span>vemos <span class="blank _5"> </span>que <span class="blank _5"> </span>essa </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yb5 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">contribuição <span class="blank _0"> </span>é <span class="blank _5"> </span>muito <span class="blank _3"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>enor <span class="blank _3"> </span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>outros <span class="blank _3"> </span>fatores, <span class="blank _3"> </span>principa<span class="blank _1"></span>lmente, <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _0"> </span>pode <span class="blank _3"> </span>ser <span class="blank _3"> </span>vi<span class="blank _0"> </span>sto <span class="blank _3"> </span>no </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yb6 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Gráfico 3, o aum<span class="blank _1"></span>ento dos gastos finan<span class="blank _1"></span>ceiros com<span class="blank _1"></span> o pagamento de <span class="blank _1"></span>juros e a queda d<span class="blank _1"></span>o PIB<span class="blank _1"></span> real. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 yb7 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls1f ws12"> <span class="fs4 ls4 v4">Gráfico 3 </span></div><div class="t m0 x1e h9 yb8 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Dívida bruta do Governo Central e f<span class="blank _1"></span>atores condicionantes de sua evolução (% do PIB)<span class="blank _0"> </span> </div><div class="t m0 x1f h9 yb9 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x16 h9 yba ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: BCB. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 ybb ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 ybc ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">O <span class="blank _4"></span>gráfico <span class="blank _4"></span>mostra <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _4"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>pagamento <span class="blank _4"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>juros <span class="blank _4"></span>se <span class="blank _4"></span>manteve <span class="blank _4"></span>ao <span class="blank _4"></span>longo <span class="blank _4"></span>dos <span class="blank _4"></span>últimos <span class="blank _4"></span>anos <span class="blank _4"></span>como </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ybd ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">o f<span class="blank _0"> </span>ator central a <span class="blank _0"> </span>explicar <span class="blank _0"> </span>o aumento da <span class="blank _0"> </span>dívida, <span class="blank _0"> </span>muito à frente <span class="blank _0"> </span>das emissões <span class="blank _0"> </span>líquidas, <span class="blank _0"> </span>inclusiv<span class="blank _1"></span>e </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ybe ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">em 2015 <span class="blank _0"> </span>quando, <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>despeit<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>grande <span class="blank _0"> </span>aumento do <span class="blank _0"> </span>déficit,<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="ls17 ws1c">su</span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>contribuição <span class="blank _0"> </span>foi <span class="blank _0"> </span>inferior <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>um </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 ybf ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">terço da con<span class="blank _1"></span>tribuição do<span class="blank _1"></span>s juros. Est<span class="blank _1"></span>a cresceu <span class="blank _1"></span>fortement<span class="blank _1"></span>e naquele <span class="blank _1"></span>ano <span class="ls12 ws15">em<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4 ws12"> boa m<span class="blank _1"></span>edida <span class="ls12 ws15">em<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4 ws12"> razão </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yc0 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do <span class="blank _0"> </span>impacto <span class="blank _0"> </span>do aumento <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>valor <span class="blank _0"> </span>do <span class="blank _0"> </span>dólar <span class="blank _0"> </span>sobre <span class="blank _0"> </span>os pagamentos <span class="blank _0"> </span>relativos <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls12 ws15">ao</span>s <span class="blank _0"> </span>swaps cambiais<span class="ls14">, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yc1 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">também<span class="blank _1"></span> contabilizados com<span class="blank _1"></span>o juros. </div><div class="t m0 x10 hf yc2 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Como mostrou-<span class="ls17">se </span>aqui: <span class="ff6 ls20">(<span class="ls14 ws23">a)<span class="blank"> </span></span></span> o desc<span class="blank _0"> </span>ontrole dos gastos n<span class="lsb ws1e">ão</span> ocorr<span class="ls12 ws15">eu</span>; <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ff6 ls21">(<span class="ls22 ws24">b)</span></span> <span class="ls17 ws1c">seu</span> crescimento </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yc3 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">não <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="ls12">é <span class="blank _6"> </span></span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>principal <span class="blank _9"> </span>fator <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="lsb ws1e">ex<span class="blank _0"> </span></span>plicar <span class="blank _9"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>resultado <span class="blank _9"> </span>primário, <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>sim <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>queda <span class="blank _6"> </span>das </div><div class="t m0 xc hf yc4 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">receitas; <span class="blank _9"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="ff6 ls20">(<span class="lsb ws1e">c)<span class="blank _0"> </span></span></span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>essa <span class="blank _9"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _6"> </span>não <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="ls12">é <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span></span>explicação <span class="blank _9"> </span>principal <span class="blank _6"> </span>para <span class="blank _6"> </span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>crescimento <span class="blank _6"> </span>da <span class="blank _9"> </span>dívida </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 yc5 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pública, <span class="blank _9"> </span>e <span class="blank _6"> </span>sim <span class="blank _6"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>pagam<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _6"> </span>de <span class="blank _9"> </span>j<span class="blank _0"> </span>uros. <span class="blank _6"> </span>Ainda <span class="blank _9"> </span>assim, <span class="blank _6"> </span>pode-<span class="ls17 ws1c">se</span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>argumentar <span class="blank _6"> </span>que <span class="blank _9"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>aumento <span class="blank _6"> </span>da </div><div class="c x20 yc6 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 yc7 ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws25">1<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x22 yc8 w5 h18"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yc9 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-1<span class="blank _0"> </span>,3</div></div><div class="c xa yca w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ycb ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">2<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x23 yc8 w5 h1a"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ycc ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-4<span class="blank _0"> </span>,7</div></div><div class="c x24 yc8 w5 h1b"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ycd ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-0<span class="blank _0"> </span>,9</div></div><div class="c x25 yc6 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 yc7 ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws28">1<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x26 yc8 w5 h1c"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yce ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws29">-2<span class="blank _0"> </span>,5</div></div><div class="c x27 ycf w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd0 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">3<span class="blank"> </span>,0</div></div><div class="c x28 yca w6 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd1 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">2<span class="blank"> </span>,3</div></div><div class="c x20 yd2 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd3 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">6<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x22 yd4 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd5 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">6<span class="blank"> </span>,5</div></div><div class="c xa yd6 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd7 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">5<span class="blank"> </span>,7</div></div><div class="c x23 yd8 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd9 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">5<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x24 yd8 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yda ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">5<span class="blank"> </span>,8</div></div><div class="c x25 ydb w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd0 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2a">5<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x26 ydc w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 ycb ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws28">5<span class="blank"> </span>,1</div></div><div class="c x27 ydd w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yde ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">5<span class="blank"> </span>,5</div></div><div class="c x28 ydf w6 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 ye0 ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws25">7<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x29 yc8 w7 h1b"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ye1 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-1</div></div><div class="c x22 ye2 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ye3 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">1<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x2a yc8 w5 h1b"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 ye4 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-1<span class="blank _0"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x23 yc8 w5 h1d"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 ye5 ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2b">-0<span class="blank _0"> </span>,1</div></div><div class="c x24 ye6 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd5 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">0<span class="blank"> </span>,3</div></div><div class="c x25 ye7 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd0 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2a">0<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x26 ye8 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd1 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2a">0<span class="blank"> </span>,4</div></div><div class="c x27 ye9 w4 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yea ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">0<span class="blank"> </span>,4</div></div><div class="c x28 yeb w6 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yd1 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws27">1<span class="blank"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x20 yc8 w5 h1e"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yec ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-6<span class="blank _0"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x22 yc8 w5 h1f"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yed ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-7<span class="blank _0"> </span>,1</div></div><div class="c x2a yc8 w5 h1e"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yee ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-3<span class="blank _0"> </span>,7</div></div><div class="c x23 yc8 w5 h20"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yef ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-8<span class="blank _0"> </span>,4</div></div><div class="c x24 yc8 w5 h1f"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yf0 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-5<span class="blank _0"> </span>,8</div></div><div class="c x25 yc8 w5 h21"><div class="t m2 x21 h17 yf1 ffa fs7 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2b">-4<span class="blank _0"> </span>,6</div></div><div class="c x26 yc8 w5 h22"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yf2 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws29">-5<span class="blank _0"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x27 yc8 w5 h23"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yf3 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2c">-3<span class="blank _0"> </span>,4</div></div><div class="c x28 yc8 w5 h24"><div class="t m2 x21 h19 yf4 ffa fs8 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws26">-2<span class="blank _0"> </span>,1</div></div><div class="c x2b yf5 w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yf6 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>6<span class="blank"> </span>,7</div></div><div class="c x2c yf7 w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yf8 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2e">5<span class="blank"> </span>6<span class="blank"> </span>,0</div></div><div class="c x2d yf9 w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yfa ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>9<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x2e yfb w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yf8 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>1<span class="blank"> </span>,8</div></div><div class="c x2f yfc w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yfd ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>1<span class="blank"> </span>,3</div></div><div class="c x30 yfe w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 yfd ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>3<span class="blank"> </span>,8</div></div><div class="c x31 yff w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y100 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2e">5<span class="blank"> </span>1<span class="blank"> </span>,7</div></div><div class="c x32 y101 w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y102 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2d">5<span class="blank"> </span>7<span class="blank"> </span>,2</div></div><div class="c x33 y103 w8 h16"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y104 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2e">6<span class="blank"> </span>6<span class="blank"> </span>,5</div></div><div class="c x7 yc8 w9 h26"><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y105 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">25</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y106 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">30</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y107 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">35</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y108 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">40</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y109 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">45</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y10a ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">50</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y10b ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">55</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y10c ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">60</div><div class="t m2 x24 h25 y10d ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">65</div><div class="t m2 x34 h25 y105 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2f">-<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls24">15</span></div><div class="t m2 x34 h25 y106 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2f">-<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls24">10</span></div><div class="t m2 x35 h25 y107 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws2f">-<span class="blank _1"></span>5</div><div class="t m2 x36 h25 y108 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4">0</div><div class="t m2 x36 h25 y109 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4">5</div><div class="t m2 x37 h25 y10a ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">10</div><div class="t m2 x37 h25 y10b ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">15</div><div class="t m2 x37 h25 y10c ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">20</div><div class="t m2 x37 h25 y10d ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">25</div></div><div class="c x38 yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">2007</div></div><div class="c x39 yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">2008</div></div><div class="c x6 yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">2009</div></div><div class="c x3a yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">2010</div></div><div class="c x3b yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">2011</div></div><div class="c x3c yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">2012</div></div><div class="c x3d yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls24">2013</div></div><div class="c x3e yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">2014</div></div><div class="c x3f yc8 wa h27"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10e ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls23">2015</div></div><div class="c x2b yc8 wb h28"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10f ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emiss<span class="blank _4"></span>õ<span class="blank _0"> </span>es <span class="blank _1"></span>lí<span class="blank _0"> </span>qui<span class="blank _0"> </span>das</div></div><div class="c x40 yc8 wc h28"><div class="t m2 x41 h25 y10f ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Ju<span class="blank _0"> </span>ros <span class="blank _4"></span>nomi<span class="blank _0"> </span>nais</div></div><div class="c x42 yc8 wd h28"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y10f ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Aj<span class="blank _0"> </span>uste cambia<span class="blank _1"></span>l</div></div><div class="c x2b yc8 we h29"><div class="t m2 x21 h25 y110 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Cre<span class="blank _0"> </span>sci<span class="blank _0"> </span>me<span class="blank _0"> </span>nt<span class="blank _0"> </span>o<span class="blank _4"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>do <span class="blank _1"></span>PIB</div></div><div class="c x40 yc8 wf h29"><div class="t m2 x41 h25 y110 ffa fs9 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Dívi<span class="blank _0"> </span>da<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>bruta <span class="blank _4"></span>(ei<span class="blank _0"> </span>xo <span class="blank _1"></span>dire<span class="blank _0"> </span>i<span class="blank _0"> </span>t<span class="blank _4"></span>o)</div></div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf7" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="7"><div class="pc pc7 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y111 w1 h2a" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg7.png"><div class="t m0 x11 h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Descontrole ou i<span class="blank _1"></span>nflexão? A pol<span class="blank _1"></span>ítica fis<span class="blank _1"></span>cal do governo <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma e a cri<span class="blank _1"></span>se econômica </div><div class="t m0 xc h4 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span>. <span class="blank _a"> </span><span class="ls5 ws1">817</span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y112 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">dívida, <span class="blank"> </span>qualquer <span class="blank"> </span>que <span class="blank _f"> </span>seja <span class="blank"> </span>sua <span class="blank"> </span>origem, <span class="blank"> </span>afeta <span class="blank"> </span>neg<span class="blank _1"></span>ativ<span class="blank _1"></span>amente <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank"> </span>confianç<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank"> </span>dos <span class="blank"> </span>agentes <span class="blank"> </span>e <span class="blank"> </span>o </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y113 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crescimento da economia, e que, <span class="blank _0"> </span>portanto, a política fiscal ainda <span class="blank _0"> </span>seria o elemento central para </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y114 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">explicar <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>desaceleração <span class="blank _0"> </span>durante <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>primeiro <span class="blank _0"> </span>governo <span class="blank _0"> </span>Dilma <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>recessão <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>partir <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>2015. <span class="blank _5"> </span>Na </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y115 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">seção 3 adiant<span class="blank _1"></span>e, apresenta<span class="blank _1"></span>rem<span class="blank _1"></span>os um conjunto de <span class="blank _1"></span>exercí<span class="blank _1"></span>cios que averig<span class="blank _1"></span>uam <span class="ls17">se </span>esse <span class="blank _1"></span>é realmente<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y116 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">o <span class="blank _2"> </span>caso. <span class="blank _f"> </span>Mas <span class="blank _f"> </span>antes, <span class="blank _2"> </span>na<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>próxima, <span class="blank _2"> </span>examinaremos <span class="blank _2"> </span>os <span class="blank _2"> </span>el<span class="blank _0"> </span>ementos <span class="blank _2"> </span>trazidos <span class="blank _2"> </span>pela <span class="blank _f"> </span>perspectiva <span class="blank _2"> </span>da </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y117 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">inflexão acima citada<span class="ls14">, <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>que, assim como a tese do descontrole, também atribui um papel chave </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y118 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">às decisões de po<span class="blank _1"></span>lítica fiscal no cam<span class="blank _1"></span>inho à crise.<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y119 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y11a ff6 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">2 Ajuste fiscal em u<span class="blank _1"></span>m modelo de<span class="blank _1"></span> crescimento lid<span class="blank _1"></span>erado pela demand<span class="blank _1"></span>a </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y11b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Mostramos <span class="blank _6"> </span>na <span class="blank _6"> </span>seção <span class="blank _6"> </span>anterior <span class="blank _6"> </span>que <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="ls12">as <span class="blank _2"> </span></span>despe<span class="blank _1"></span>sas <span class="blank _6"> </span>primárias <span class="blank _6"> </span>não <span class="blank _6"> </span>só <span class="blank _6"> </span>não <span class="blank _6"> </span>dispararam <span class="blank _6"> </span>no </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>Dilma, <span class="blank _0"> </span>como <span class="blank _3"> </span>seu <span class="blank _3"> </span>ritmo <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>expansão <span class="blank _5"> </span>dim<span class="blank _1"></span>inuiu. <span class="blank _3"> </span>Assim, <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _5"> </span></span>condução <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">não l<span class="blank _1"></span>evou <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>um<span class="blank _1"></span> descont<span class="blank _1"></span>role <span class="blank _1"></span>dos <span class="blank _1"></span>gastos, <span class="blank _1"></span>em<span class="blank _1"></span>bora, com<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _1"></span>vim<span class="blank _1"></span>os, <span class="blank _1"></span>tenha <span class="blank _1"></span>contribuído <span class="blank _1"></span>par<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>a r<span class="blank _1"></span>edução </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">das <span class="blank _9"> </span>receitas <span class="blank _5"> </span>que <span class="blank _5"> </span>levaram <span class="blank _5"> </span>à <span class="blank _9"> </span>deterioração <span class="blank _9"> </span>do <span class="blank _5"> </span>resultado <span class="blank _5"> </span>fiscal, <span class="blank _9"> </span>cujo <span class="blank _5"> </span>eventual <span class="blank _5"> </span>impacto <span class="blank _9"> </span>negativo </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">sobre a ativ<span class="blank _1"></span>idade econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ica será<span class="blank _1"></span> investigado<span class="blank _1"></span> na próxi<span class="blank _1"></span>ma seção. N<span class="blank _1"></span>esta, discutire<span class="blank _1"></span>mos se aquela </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y120 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">desaceleração<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank"> </span>dos<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _f"> </span>gastos, <span class="blank"> </span>que <span class="blank _f"> </span>mostra <span class="blank _f"> </span>o <span class="blank"> </span>equ<span class="blank _1"></span>ívoco <span class="blank _10"> </span>da <span class="blank _f"> </span>percepção <span class="blank _f"> </span>ortodoxa <span class="blank"> </span>d<span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _f"> </span>descontrole, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws16">caracterizar<span class="ls1c ws20">ia</span><span class="ws12"> <span class="blank _11"> </span>ao <span class="blank _12"> </span>contrário, <span class="blank _11"> </span>como <span class="blank _12"> </span>argum<span class="blank _1"></span>entam <span class="blank _12"> </span>autores <span class="blank _12"> </span>heterodoxos, <span class="blank _11"> </span>uma <span class="blank _11"> </span>inflexão </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y121 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">contracionista na política fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>que teria <span class="blank _0"> </span>aprofundado o <span class="blank _0"> </span>vale no ciclo <span class="blank _0"> </span>econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ico e <span class="blank _0"> </span>conduzido </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y122 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">o país à crise. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y123 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">Inicialmente, é <span class="blank _0"> </span>important<span class="blank _1"></span>e not<span class="blank _0"> </span>ar que<span class="blank _0"> </span>, até <span class="blank _0"> </span>fins <span class="blank _0"> </span>de 2008, em <span class="blank _0"> </span>razão da <span class="blank _0"> </span>regra <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal rígida </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y124 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">vigente no <span class="blank _1"></span>B<span class="blank _1"></span>rasil, a<span class="blank _1"></span>s despe<span class="blank _1"></span>sas p<span class="blank _1"></span>rimárias g<span class="blank _1"></span>eralmente<span class="blank _1"></span> apr<span class="blank _1"></span>esentavam<span class="blank _1"></span> com<span class="blank _1"></span>portamento <span class="blank _1"></span>pró-cíclico, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y125 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">evoluindo no m<span class="blank _1"></span>esmo sentid<span class="blank _1"></span>o da atividade <span class="blank _1"></span>econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>ica. Em 2009, entr<span class="blank _1"></span>etanto, quand<span class="blank _1"></span>o o PIB<span class="blank _1"></span> e as </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y126 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">receitas <span class="blank _1"></span>passa<span class="blank _1"></span>ram <span class="blank _4"></span>a cair <span class="blank _1"></span>sob <span class="blank _4"></span>o im<span class="blank _1"></span>pacto <span class="blank _1"></span>da <span class="blank _1"></span>crise <span class="blank _4"></span>fi<span class="blank _0"> </span>nance<span class="blank _1"></span>ira <span class="blank _1"></span>internac<span class="blank _1"></span>ional, <span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span>despesas, em<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>vez <span class="blank _4"></span>de<span class="blank _0"> </span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y127 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">também <span class="blank _5"> </span>caír<span class="blank _0"> </span>em <span class="blank _5"> </span>aprofundando <span class="blank _9"> </span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>ciclo, <span class="blank _6"> </span>cresce<span class="ls1e ws22">ra</span>m<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>fortemente, <span class="blank _9"> </span>indicando <span class="blank _9"> </span>a <span class="blank _9"> </span>operação <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _9"> </span>uma </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y128 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">política <span class="blank _4"></span>fiscal a<span class="blank _1"></span>nticíclica <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>se <span class="blank _4"></span>manteve <span class="blank _1"></span>em <span class="blank _4"></span>2010. <span class="blank _1"></span>Já <span class="blank _1"></span>e<span class="blank _1"></span>m <span class="blank _4"></span>2011, prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eiro <span class="blank _4"></span>ano do <span class="blank _4"></span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y129 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">e <span class="blank _0"> </span>após <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>rápida <span class="blank _0"> </span>recuperação <span class="blank _0"> </span>na <span class="blank _0"> </span>economia registrada <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls14 ws19">no<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>ano <span class="blank _0"> </span>anterior, <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>ritmo <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>expansão <span class="blank _0"> </span>das </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12a ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">despesas <span class="blank _4"></span>públicas <span class="blank _4"></span>caiu <span class="blank _4"></span>fortem<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _4"></span>e <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>arrecadação <span class="blank _4"></span>acelerou, <span class="blank _4"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>superávit <span class="blank _4"></span>prim<span class="blank _1"></span>ário<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _4"></span>assim <span class="blank _4"></span>cresceu<span class="ls14">, </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12b ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls12 ws12">e <span class="ls4">foram<span class="blank _1"></span> adotadas <span class="blank _1"></span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>edidas <span class="blank _1"></span>macroprudenciais <span class="blank _1"></span>no m<span class="blank _1"></span>ercado de <span class="blank _1"></span>crédito, <span class="blank _1"></span>o qu<span class="blank _1"></span>e pa<span class="blank _1"></span>rec<span class="ls12 ws15">er<span class="ls1c ws20">ia</span></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>confirm<span class="blank _1"></span>ar </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12c ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">a tese de inflexão con<span class="blank _1"></span>tracionista da polít<span class="blank _1"></span>ica. Entretanto, tal inflexão <span class="ls1d ws21">te</span>ria vida curt<span class="blank _1"></span>a: já a partir </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12d ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">do <span class="blank _6"> </span>f<span class="blank _0"> </span>inal <span class="blank _6"> </span>daquele <span class="blank _2"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>esmo <span class="blank _6"> </span>ano, <span class="blank _2"> </span>com <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>deterioraç<span class="blank _1"></span>ão <span class="blank _2"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>cenário <span class="blank _6"> </span>internacional <span class="blank _2"> </span>e, <span class="blank _6"> </span>embora <span class="blank _6"> </span>com </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12e ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">relativo <span class="blank _1"></span>atraso quan<span class="blank _1"></span>do com<span class="blank _1"></span>parado à <span class="blank _1"></span>crise <span class="blank _1"></span>de 2<span class="blank _1"></span>008/200<span class="blank _1"></span>9 com<span class="blank _1"></span>o observam<span class="blank _1"></span> De <span class="blank _1"></span>Paula, <span class="blank _1"></span>Modenesi <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="lsb">e </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y12f ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">Pires <span class="blank _0"> </span>(2015), <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _0"> </span>inverteu <span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>sentido <span class="blank _0"> </span>novamente <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>retomou <span class="blank _0"> </span>seu <span class="blank _0"> </span>caráter <span class="blank _0"> </span>anticíclico<span class="ls14">. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y130 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">Com <span class="blank _f"> </span>efeito, <span class="blank _10"> </span>algumas <span class="blank _f"> </span>medidas <span class="blank _f"> </span>restritivas <span class="blank _f"> </span>anteriores <span class="blank _f"> </span>foram <span class="blank _f"> </span>revertidas <span class="blank"> </span>e <span class="blank _f"> </span>novas <span class="blank _f"> </span>medidas <span class="blank _f"> </span>de </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y131 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">estímulo foram adotadas, acelerando o crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento das despesas ao longo dos anos seguintes, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y132 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">embora em <span class="blank _0"> </span>ritmo <span class="blank _0"> </span>inferior ao <span class="blank _0"> </span>verificado anteriormente<span class="ls14">. <span class="blank _0"> </span></span>Foi <span class="blank _0"> </span>somente <span class="blank _0"> </span>em 2015, <span class="blank _0"> </span>em meio <span class="blank _0"> </span>a <span class="blank _0"> </span>uma </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y133 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">nova <span class="blank _3"> </span>inflexão <span class="blank _0"> </span>contracionista <span class="blank _3"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>política <span class="blank _0"> </span>fiscal<span class="blank _0"> </span>, <span class="blank _3"> </span>bem <span class="blank _3"> </span>mais <span class="blank _3"> </span>acentuad<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _3"> </span>início <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>2011, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y134 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">que as desp<span class="blank _1"></span>esas totais p<span class="blank _1"></span>araram<span class="blank _1"></span> de crescer e<span class="blank _1"></span> passa<span class="ls25 ws30">ra</span>m a <span class="blank _1"></span>cair fortem<span class="blank _1"></span>ente em um<span class="blank _1"></span> movim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento que </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y135 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">prosseguiu em<span class="blank _1"></span> 2016 em meio ao apro<span class="blank _1"></span>fundam<span class="blank _1"></span>ento d<span class="ls12">a </span>recessão.<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y136 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">Desta <span class="blank _2"> </span>forma, <span class="blank _2"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>prociclicidade <span class="blank _2"> </span>que <span class="blank _2"> </span>caracterizav<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>política <span class="blank _2"> </span>fiscal <span class="blank _2"> </span>no <span class="blank _2"> </span>país <span class="blank _2"> </span>até <span class="blank _2"> </span>2008 </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y137 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">somente v<span class="blank _1"></span>oltou <span class="ls12">a <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls17">se <span class="ls4">v<span class="blank _1"></span>erificar c<span class="blank _1"></span>laram<span class="blank _1"></span>ente a p<span class="blank _1"></span>artir de <span class="blank _1"></span>2015 <span class="blank _1"></span>e não<span class="blank _1"></span> no <span class="blank _1"></span>período 201<span class="blank _1"></span>1-<span class="blank _1"></span>2014, durante </span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y138 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">o prim<span class="blank _1"></span>eiro g<span class="blank _1"></span>overno <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilm<span class="blank _1"></span>a. I<span class="blank _1"></span>sto <span class="blank _1"></span>pode ser <span class="blank _1"></span>confirm<span class="blank _1"></span>ado ao<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>examinar <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>evolução <span class="blank _1"></span>dos <span class="blank _1"></span>com<span class="blank _1"></span>ponentes </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y139 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12">da <span class="blank _4"></span>despesa <span class="blank _4"></span>associados<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _4"></span>aos <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="fc1">elementos <span class="blank _4"></span>imprescin<span class="blank _1"></span>díveis <span class="blank _4"></span>destacados <span class="blank _4"></span>por <span class="blank _4"></span>Pall<span class="blank _1"></span>ey <span class="blank _4"></span>(2002, <span class="blank _4"></span>apud <span class="blank _4"></span>Palley, </span></div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf8" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="8"><div class="pc pc8 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y13a w1 h2b" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg8.png"><div class="t m0 xc h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavs<span class="blank _1"></span>ky<span class="ls7">, </span>Esther <span class="blank _1"></span>Dweck<span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">Rodrigo<span class="blank _1"></span> Alves Teixeira </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls5 ws1">818<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _a"> </span>Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y112 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">2011) <span class="blank _1"></span>para <span class="blank _4"></span>o sucesso <span class="blank _4"></span>de um<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>es<span class="blank _0"> </span>tratég<span class="blank _1"></span>ia <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _1"></span>crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _1"></span>liderado <span class="blank _4"></span>pela <span class="blank _1"></span>demanda <span class="blank _4"></span>doméstica <span class="blank _1"></span>como </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y113 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">a que, <span class="blank _4"></span>conforme <span class="blank _1"></span>descrito <span class="blank _1"></span>por <span class="blank _1"></span>Dw<span class="blank _1"></span>eck et <span class="blank _1"></span>a<span class="blank _1"></span>l. (<span class="blank _1"></span>2013), <span class="blank _1"></span>teria <span class="blank _4"></span>car<span class="blank _0"> </span>acter<span class="blank _1"></span>izado <span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _1"></span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno Lu<span class="blank _1"></span>la: <span class="ff6 ws16">(a<span class="blank _1"></span>)<span class="ff3 ws12"> re<span class="blank _1"></span>des </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y114 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank"> </span>proteção <span class="blank"> </span>social <span class="blank"> </span>para <span class="blank"> </span>reduzir <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank"> </span>necessidade<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank"> </span>de <span class="blank"> </span>poupança <span class="blank"> </span>precauc<span class="blank _1"></span>ional, <span class="blank"> </span>estimulando <span class="blank"> </span>o </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y115 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">consumo; <span class="blank _2"> </span><span class="ff6 ws16">(b<span class="blank _1"></span>)<span class="ff3 ws12"> <span class="blank _2"> </span>salário <span class="blank _6"> </span>mínimo, <span class="blank _6"> </span>proteç<span class="blank _0"> </span>ões <span class="blank _6"> </span>trabalhistas <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _2"> </span>negociação <span class="blank _2"> </span>co<span class="blank _1"></span>letiva <span class="blank _2"> </span>par<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>reforça<span class="blank _1"></span>r <span class="blank _2"> </span>a </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc hf y116 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">ligação <span class="blank _0"> </span>entre <span class="blank _3"> </span>crescim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _3"> </span>produtividade<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>dos <span class="blank _3"> </span>salários<span class="blank _1"></span>; <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ff6 ws16">(c)</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>investim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _3"> </span>em <span class="blank _0"> </span>infraestrutur<span class="blank _1"></span>a </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y117 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pública; <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ff6 ws16">(d)</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>provisão <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>bens <span class="blank _3"> </span>públicos, <span class="blank _0"> </span>como <span class="blank _3"> </span>saúde <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _3"> </span>educação; <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="ff6 ws16">(e)</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>reequilíbrio <span class="blank _0"> </span>da <span class="blank _5"> </span>estrutura </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y118 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">tributária, <span class="blank _3"> </span>aumentando <span class="blank _5"> </span>os <span class="blank _5"> </span>impostos <span class="blank _5"> </span>sobre <span class="blank _5"> </span>os <span class="blank _5"> </span>grupos <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>renda <span class="blank _5"> </span>mais <span class="blank _5"> </span>elevada <span class="blank _3"> </span>e <span class="blank _9"> </span>dim<span class="blank _1"></span>inuindo<span class="blank _0"> </span>-os </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y119 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">sobre <span class="blank _0"> </span>os grupos <span class="blank _0"> </span>de renda <span class="blank _0"> </span>mais baixa. <span class="blank _0"> </span>Na <span class="blank _0"> </span>próxim<span class="blank _1"></span>a subseção <span class="blank _0"> </span>discutiremos os <span class="blank _0"> </span>principais grupos </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y13b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _2"> </span>gastos <span class="blank _2"> </span>abrangidos <span class="blank _2"> </span>pelos <span class="blank _2"> </span>elementos <span class="blank _2"> </span><span class="ff6 ws16">(a)</span>, <span class="blank _2"> </span><span class="ff6 ls20 ws31">(b)</span><span class="ls26"> e<span class="blank _13"></span> <span class="ff6 ls4 ws16">(d)</span><span class="ls4">, <span class="blank _2"> </span>enquanto <span class="blank _2"> </span>os <span class="blank _2"> </span>investimentos <span class="blank _2"> </span>(<span class="ff6 ls27">c</span><span class="ls1e">) <span class="blank _2"> </span></span>serão </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc hf y13c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">analisados <span class="blank _1"></span>adiante, <span class="blank _4"></span>separadamente. <span class="blank _1"></span>Quanto <span class="blank _4"></span>ao item <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ff6 ls20 ws31">(e<span class="blank _1"></span>)<span class="ff3 ls14 ws12">, <span class="ls4">m<span class="blank _1"></span>esmo <span class="blank _1"></span>sendo <span class="blank _1"></span>carac<span class="blank _1"></span>terizado <span class="blank _1"></span>no <span class="blank _1"></span>per<span class="blank _1"></span>íodo </span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y13d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">pela <span class="blank"> </span>desoneração <span class="blank"> </span>da <span class="blank _8"> </span>produção <span class="blank"> </span>em<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank"> </span>vários <span class="blank _8"> </span>setores <span class="blank"> </span>de <span class="blank"> </span>atividade, <span class="blank _7"> </span>o <span class="blank _8"> </span>que <span class="blank"> </span>levou <span class="blank"> </span>à <span class="blank _8"> </span>perda <span class="blank"> </span>de </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y13e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">arrecadação <span class="blank _2"> </span>do <span class="blank _2"> </span>governo, <span class="blank _2"> </span>não <span class="blank _2"> </span>parece <span class="blank _2"> </span>ter <span class="blank _f"> </span>colocado <span class="blank _2"> </span>entrave <span class="blank _2"> </span>relevante <span class="blank _2"> </span>ao <span class="blank _2"> </span>avanço <span class="blank _2"> </span>dos <span class="blank _f"> </span>gastos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y13f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">públicos m<span class="blank _1"></span>aterializados no<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _1"></span>demais el<span class="blank _1"></span>ementos, qu<span class="blank _1"></span>e tiv<span class="blank _1"></span>eram <span class="blank _1"></span>seu espaço <span class="blank _1"></span>fisca<span class="blank _1"></span>l m<span class="blank _1"></span>antido graças <span class="blank _1"></span>à </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y140 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">autorização para o <span class="blank _1"></span>abatimento da per<span class="blank _1"></span>da de arrecada<span class="blank _1"></span>ção nas metas d<span class="blank _1"></span>e resultado pri<span class="blank _1"></span>mário. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y141 ff3 fs6 fc4 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xc hf y142 ff6 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">2.1 Transferênc<span class="ls1d ws21">ia</span>s de ren<span class="blank _1"></span>da, salário mínimo <span class="blank _1"></span>e gastos em saúde <span class="blank _1"></span>e educação </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y121 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Do <span class="blank _0"> </span>ponto <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _0"> </span>vista <span class="blank _3"> </span>das <span class="blank _0"> </span>políticas <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>transferência <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>renda <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls12 ws15">às</span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>famílias, <span class="blank _3"> </span>certam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _0"> </span>não </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y122 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">houve <span class="blank"> </span>inflexão <span class="blank"> </span>neg<span class="blank _1"></span>ativa <span class="blank"> </span>entre <span class="blank"> </span>os <span class="blank"> </span>q<span class="blank _1"></span>uadriênios <span class="blank"> </span>2006-<span class="blank _1"></span>2010 <span class="blank"> </span>e <span class="blank"> </span>2011-<span class="blank _1"></span>2014. <span class="blank"> </span>Ao <span class="blank"> </span><span class="lsb ws1e">co</span>ntrário, <span class="blank"> </span>no </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y143 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">governo <span class="blank _4"></span>Dilma <span class="blank _4"></span>algum<span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _4"></span>áreas <span class="blank _4"></span>registraram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _4"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>exp<span class="blank _1"></span>ansão <span class="blank _4"></span>dos <span class="blank _4"></span>gastos, <span class="blank _4"></span>com<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>foi <span class="blank _4"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>caso, <span class="blank _4"></span>por <span class="blank _4"></span>exemplo, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y144 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do Programa Brasil Sem Miséria, em<span class="blank _1"></span> especial o Brasil Carinhoso, que ampliou o <span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls14 ws19">be</span>nefício do </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y145 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Programa <span class="blank _0"> </span>Bolsa <span class="blank _0"> </span>Família. <span class="blank _3"> </span>Os <span class="blank _0"> </span>dem<span class="blank _1"></span>ais <span class="blank _0"> </span>benefícios <span class="blank _0"> </span>sociais <span class="blank _0"> </span>não <span class="blank _3"> </span>tiveram <span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>odificação <span class="blank _0"> </span>significati<span class="blank _0"> </span>va </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y87 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">em <span class="blank _5"> </span>suas <span class="blank _9"> </span>regras <span class="blank _9"> </span>e <span class="blank _9"> </span>viram <span class="blank _9"> </span>os <span class="blank _9"> </span>valores <span class="blank _5"> </span>fi<span class="blank _0"> </span>nanc<span class="blank _1"></span>eiros <span class="blank _9"> </span>a <span class="blank _9"> </span>eles <span class="blank _5"> </span>destinados <span class="blank _9"> </span>aumentarem <span class="blank _5"> </span><span class="ls12 ws15">em</span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>função <span class="blank _9"> </span>do </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y146 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crescimento <span class="blank _6"> </span>vegetativo, <span class="blank _6"> </span>da <span class="blank _2"> </span>formalizaçã<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank _2"> </span>mercado <span class="blank _6"> </span>de <span class="blank _2"> </span>trabalho <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _2"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>aumento <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank _2"> </span>salário </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y4a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mínim<span class="blank _1"></span>o. <span class="blank"> </span>Com <span class="blank _f"> </span>i<span class="blank _0"> </span>sso, <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank"> </span>pa<span class="blank _1"></span>rticipação <span class="blank _f"> </span>desses <span class="blank"> </span>gastos <span class="blank"> </span>no<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank"> </span>PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B <span class="blank _10"> </span>não <span class="blank"> </span>só <span class="blank"> </span>não <span class="blank"> </span>caiu <span class="blank"> </span>co<span class="blank _1"></span>mo <span class="blank _f"> </span>cr<span class="blank _0"> </span>esceu<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y147 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">consideravelm<span class="blank _1"></span>ente, como m<span class="blank _1"></span>ostra o Gráfico 4 abaixo.<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y148 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls19 ws12"> <span class="fs4 ls4 v4">Gráfico 4 </span></div><div class="t m0 x43 h9 y149 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Transferência de renda às famílias (% do PIB) </div><div class="t m0 x44 h9 y14a ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x45 h9 y14b ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: SIAFI. </div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pf9" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="9"><div class="pc pc9 w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y14c w1 h2c" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bg9.png"><div class="t m0 x11 h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Descontrole ou i<span class="blank _1"></span>nflexão? A pol<span class="blank _1"></span>ítica fis<span class="blank _1"></span>cal do governo <span class="blank _1"></span>Dilma e a cri<span class="blank _1"></span>se econômica </div><div class="t m0 xc h4 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span>. <span class="blank _a"> </span><span class="ls5 ws1">819</span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y5d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Quanto <span class="blank _14"> </span>ao <span class="blank _14"> </span>salário <span class="blank _d"> </span>mínimo <span class="blank _14"> </span>que, <span class="blank _14"> </span>além <span class="blank _14"> </span>de <span class="blank _14"> </span>seu <span class="blank _14"> </span>papel <span class="blank _14"> </span>crucial <span class="blank _14"> </span>na <span class="blank _14"> </span>definição <span class="blank _d"> </span>das </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">remunerações no <span class="blank _1"></span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>ercado <span class="blank _1"></span>de traba<span class="blank _1"></span>lho, é <span class="blank _1"></span>decisiv<span class="blank _1"></span>o na dete<span class="blank _1"></span>rminação do <span class="blank _1"></span>valor <span class="blank _1"></span>da m<span class="blank _1"></span>aior par<span class="blank _1"></span>te das<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y5f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">transferências <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _5"> </span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno <span class="blank _3"> </span>às <span class="blank _5"> </span>famílias, <span class="blank _5"> </span>teve <span class="blank _5"> </span><span class="ls17 ws1c">su</span>a <span class="blank _3"> </span>regra <span class="blank _5"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>reajuste <span class="blank _3"> </span>automático <span class="blank _5"> </span>estabelecid<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _5"> </span>no </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y60 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">período <span class="blank _e"> </span>anterior <span class="blank _e"> </span>mantida, <span class="blank _e"> </span>o<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _e"> </span>que <span class="blank _e"> </span>garantiu <span class="blank _c"> </span>aum<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _e"> </span>real <span class="blank _e"> </span>médio <span class="blank _e"> </span>de <span class="blank _c"> </span>3,0% <span class="blank _e"> </span>ao <span class="blank _e"> </span>ano, <span class="blank _c"> </span>ainda </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y84 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">considerável <span class="blank _1"></span>embora inferior <span class="lsb ws1e">ao</span> do pe<span class="blank _1"></span>ríodo 2007-<span class="blank _1"></span>2010 (4,1% a.a.<span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls1e ws22">).<span class="ls4 ws12"> Ap<span class="blank _1"></span>enas em 20<span class="blank _1"></span>15-<span class="blank _1"></span>2016 sua </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y86 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">taxa de cr<span class="blank _0"> </span>escim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento (1,2% a.a.) <span class="blank _0"> </span>desacelerou fortem<span class="blank _1"></span>ente, já <span class="blank _0"> </span>em meio à recessão. <span class="ls18 ws1d">Ao<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> menos até </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y14d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">2014, portanto, n<span class="ls12 ws15">ão</span> parece <span class="blank _1"></span>razoável falar em inflexão <span class="blank _1"></span>nas políticas de transferên<span class="blank _1"></span>cia de renda e </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y14e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">do salário mínim<span class="blank _1"></span>o. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y65 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Mas <span class="blank _3"> </span>n<span class="ls12 ws15">ão</span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>somente <span class="blank _3"> </span><span class="lsb ws1e">as<span class="blank _0"> </span></span> <span class="blank _3"> </span>despesas <span class="blank _3"> </span>com <span class="blank _3"> </span>transferências <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>renda <span class="blank _5"> </span>é <span class="blank _3"> </span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>foram <span class="blank _3"> </span>mantidas <span class="blank _3"> </span>ou </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y66 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mesmo <span class="blank _3"> </span>expandidas. <span class="blank _5"> </span>Ao <span class="blank _3"> </span>longo <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _5"> </span>Governo <span class="blank _5"> </span>Dilma, <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _3"> </span>j<span class="blank _0"> </span>á <span class="blank _5"> </span>havia <span class="blank _5"> </span>ocorrido <span class="blank _3"> </span>no <span class="blank _5"> </span>governo <span class="blank _3"> </span>Lula, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y67 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">outros <span class="blank _0"> </span>setores <span class="blank _0"> </span>foram <span class="blank _0"> </span>completamente <span class="blank _0"> </span>protegidos <span class="blank _0"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _0"> </span>contingenciamentos, <span class="blank _0"> </span>ao <span class="blank _0"> </span>menos <span class="blank _3"> </span>até <span class="blank _0"> </span>2014<span class="ls14">. </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y68 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Além <span class="blank _c"> </span>dos <span class="blank _d"> </span>investimentos<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _c"> </span>prioritários <span class="blank _c"> </span>incluídos <span class="blank _d"> </span>no <span class="blank _c"> </span>PAC, <span class="blank _c"> </span>as <span class="blank _d"> </span>áreas <span class="blank _c"> </span>de <span class="blank _d"> </span>saúde, <span class="blank _c"> </span>educação, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y14f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">desenvolvim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento social e <span class="blank _0"> </span>ciênci<span class="blank _1"></span>a e tecnologia tiveram tratamento diferenciado e os recursos a </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y150 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">elas destinados con<span class="blank _1"></span>tinuaram<span class="blank _1"></span> crescendo. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y6b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Nesse <span class="blank _6"> </span>sentido, <span class="blank _6"> </span>c<span class="blank _0"> </span>om<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>vemos <span class="blank _2"> </span>no <span class="blank _6"> </span>Gráfico <span class="blank _6"> </span>5 <span class="blank _6"> </span>abaixo, <span class="blank _2"> </span>entre<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>20<span class="blank _1"></span>10 <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _2"> </span>2014 <span class="blank _9"> </span>os <span class="blank _2"> </span>gastos <span class="blank _6"> </span>do </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Governo Federa<span class="blank _1"></span>l em educação, m<span class="blank _1"></span>esm<span class="blank _1"></span>o partindo de um<span class="blank _1"></span>a base que já havia<span class="blank _1"></span> crescido quase 90<span class="blank _1"></span>% </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">nos <span class="blank _9"> </span>quatro <span class="blank _6"> </span>anos <span class="blank _9"> </span>anteriores</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x46 h13 y151 ff3 fs0 fc1 sc0 ls4">2</div></div><div class="t m0 x43 h10 y6d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">, <span class="blank _9"> </span>continuaram <span class="blank _9"> </span>subindo, <span class="blank _6"> </span>embora <span class="blank _9"> </span>em <span class="blank _9"> </span>rit<span class="blank _0"> </span>m<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>mais <span class="blank _6"> </span>moderado, <span class="blank _6"> </span>e <span class="blank _9"> </span>sua </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y152 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">participação <span class="blank _f"> </span>no <span class="blank"> </span>PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B <span class="blank"> </span>cresc<span class="blank _1"></span>eu <span class="blank"> </span>para <span class="blank _f"> </span>1,4%. <span class="blank"> </span>O<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank"> </span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>astos <span class="blank"> </span><span class="ls12 ws15">em<span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank"> </span>saúde, <span class="blank"> </span>por <span class="blank _f"> </span>sua <span class="blank"> </span>vez<span class="blank _1"></span>, <span class="blank _f"> </span>pr<span class="blank _0"> </span>aticam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y153 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mantiveram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>rit<span class="blank _0"> </span>mo <span class="blank _4"></span>de expa<span class="blank _1"></span>nsão <span class="blank _1"></span>e <span class="blank _4"></span>sua p<span class="blank _1"></span>articipação <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls14 ws19">no<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _1"></span>produt<span class="blank _1"></span>o. <span class="blank _1"></span>Assim<span class="blank _1"></span>, <span class="blank _4"></span>nes<span class="blank _0"> </span>tes <span class="blank _1"></span>grup<span class="blank _1"></span>os <span class="blank _4"></span>de g<span class="blank _1"></span>astos </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y154 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">referentes <span class="blank _5"> </span>a <span class="blank _5"> </span><span class="ls17 ws1c">se</span>rviços <span class="blank _3"> </span>públicos <span class="blank _5"> </span>essenciais <span class="blank _5"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>que <span class="blank _5"> </span>ocupam<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _5"> </span>larga <span class="blank _5"> </span>par<span class="blank _0"> </span>cela <span class="blank _3"> </span>do <span class="blank _5"> </span>orçamento <span class="blank _5"> </span>público, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y155 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">tampouco é adequa<span class="blank _1"></span>do falar em<span class="blank _1"></span> inflexão contracioni<span class="blank _1"></span>sta ao longo do g<span class="blank _1"></span>overno Dilm<span class="blank _1"></span>a. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y156 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls1f ws12"> <span class="fs4 ls4 v4">Gráfico 5 </span></div><div class="t m0 x47 h9 y157 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Participação no PIB e crescimento médio anual dos gastos em saúde e educação do Governo Federal </div><div class="t m0 x48 h9 y158 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x49 h9 y159 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: SIAFI. </div><div class="t m0 x49 h9 y137 ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 xc h5 y15a ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div></div><div class="t m0 xe h5 y15a ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">(</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x17 hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">2</div></div><div class="t m0 x18 hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls1a ws12">) <span class="ls4">Com efeito, o Brasil<span class="blank _1"></span> foi um dos paí<span class="blank _1"></span>ses que mais ele<span class="blank _1"></span>vou os gastos e<span class="blank _1"></span>m educação no m<span class="blank _1"></span>undo entre 2<span class="blank _1"></span>001 e 2011. </span></div><div class="c x1e y15b w10 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y15c ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">0,<span class="blank"> </span>9</div></div><div class="c x4a y15d w11 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y15e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>7</div></div><div class="c x4b y15f w10 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y160 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>2</div></div><div class="c x23 y161 w11 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y15c ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>6</div></div><div class="c x4c y162 w10 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y163 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws33">1<span class="blank"> </span>,<span class="blank"> </span>4</div></div><div class="c x4d y15d w11 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y15e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1<span class="blank"> </span>,<span class="blank"> </span>7</div></div><div class="c x4e y164 w12 h2f"><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y165 ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4 ws34">0,<span class="blank"> </span>0</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y166 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">0,<span class="blank"> </span>2</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y167 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">0,<span class="blank"> </span>4</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y168 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">0,<span class="blank"> </span>6</div><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y169 ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4 ws34">0,<span class="blank"> </span>8</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16a ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>0</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16b ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>2</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16c ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">1,<span class="blank"> </span>4</div><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y16d ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4 ws34">1,<span class="blank"> </span>6</div></div><div class="c x4f y164 w13 h31"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws35">Educação</div></div><div class="c x9 y164 w14 h31"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws36">Sa<span class="blank _1"></span>úde</div></div><div class="c x50 y16f w15 h2d"><div class="t m3 x41 h32 y170 ffa fsc fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Partici<span class="blank _1"></span>pa<span class="blank _1"></span>ç<span class="blank _1"></span>ã<span class="blank _1"></span>o <span class="blank _5"> </span>no <span class="blank _3"> </span>PI<span class="blank _0"> </span>B (%)</div></div><div class="c x17 y171 w16 h33"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y172 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws37">20<span class="blank"> </span>06</div></div><div class="c x17 y173 w16 h33"><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y174 ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4 ws38">20<span class="blank"> </span>10</div></div><div class="c x17 y175 w16 h33"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y176 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws37">20<span class="blank"> </span>14</div></div><div class="c x51 y177 w17 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y178 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls29">17</div></div><div class="c x52 y164 w10 h34"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y179 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws33">5<span class="blank"> </span>,<span class="blank"> </span>9</div></div><div class="c x53 y17a w10 h2d"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y17b ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws33">8<span class="blank"> </span>,<span class="blank"> </span>1</div></div><div class="c x54 y164 w11 h35"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y17c ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws32">5,<span class="blank"> </span>2</div></div><div class="c x55 y164 w18 h2f"><div class="t m3 x2 h30 y165 ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4">0</div><div class="t m3 x2 h2e y166 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4">2</div><div class="t m3 x2 h2e y167 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4">4</div><div class="t m3 x2 h2e y168 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4">6</div><div class="t m3 x2 h30 y169 ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls4">8</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16a ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls29">10</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16b ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls29">12</div><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16c ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls29">14</div><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y16d ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls28">16</div></div><div class="c x31 y164 w13 h31"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws35">Educação</div></div><div class="c x56 y164 w14 h31"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y16e ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls4 ws36">Sa<span class="blank _1"></span>úde</div></div><div class="c x57 y16f w19 h2d"><div class="t m3 x41 h32 y170 ffa fsc fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Cr<span class="blank _0"> </span>esci<span class="blank _1"></span>me<span class="blank _0"> </span>nt<span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _4"></span>m<span class="blank _0"> </span>édio (%<span class="blank _0"> </span> a<span class="blank _1"></span>.a.<span class="blank _0"> </span>)</div></div><div class="c x58 y17d w1a h36"><div class="t m3 x21 h30 y17e ffa fsb fc1 sc0 ls28 ws39">2006<span class="ls4 ws38">-2010</span></div></div><div class="c x58 y17f w1a h36"><div class="t m3 x21 h2e y180 ffa fsa fc1 sc0 ls29 ws3a">2010<span class="ls4 ws37">-20<span class="blank"> </span>1<span class="blank _1"></span>4</span></div></div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div> <div id="pfa" class="pf w0 h0" data-page-no="a"><div class="pc pca w0 h0"><img fetchpriority="low" loading="lazy" class="bi x0 y181 w1 h37" alt="" src="https://files.passeidireto.com/e0775b92-6653-4f7a-b0e9-c2d258c6a472/bga.png"><div class="t m0 xc h4 y3 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Emilio Chernavs<span class="blank _1"></span>ky<span class="ls7">, </span>Esther <span class="blank _1"></span>Dweck<span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">Rodrigo<span class="blank _1"></span> Alves Teixeira </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h5 y5 ff1 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls5 ws1">820<span class="ls4 ws12"> <span class="blank _a"> </span>Economia e Sociedad<span class="blank _1"></span>e, Campinas<span class="blank _1"></span>, v. 29, n<span class="blank _1"></span>. 3 (<span class="ls5 ws1">70</span>), p. <span class="ls5 ws1">811<span class="ls0">-</span>834</span><span class="ls7">, <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">setembro-d<span class="blank _1"></span>ezembro <span class="ls5 ws1">2020</span><span class="ws0">.</span><span class="ff3 fs2"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc hf y182 ff6 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">2.2 Investimento púb<span class="blank _1"></span>lico </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y183 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">A <span class="blank"> </span>teor<span class="blank _0"> </span>ia <span class="blank"> </span>macroeconômica <span class="blank"> </span>põe <span class="blank _8"> </span>o <span class="blank _7"> </span>investimento <span class="blank _8"> </span>como <span class="blank"> </span>o <span class="blank _8"> </span>componente <span class="blank"> </span>da <span class="blank _8"> </span>demanda </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y184 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">agregada <span class="blank _2"> </span>mais <span class="blank _2"> </span>importante <span class="blank _2"> </span>para <span class="blank _f"> </span>explicar <span class="blank _2"> </span>as <span class="blank _f"> </span>flutuações <span class="blank _2"> </span>econôm<span class="blank _1"></span>icas <span class="blank _f"> </span>de <span class="blank _2"> </span>curto <span class="blank _2"> </span>prazo, <span class="blank _2"> </span>dada<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>a </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y185 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">relativa <span class="blank _f"> </span>estabilidade <span class="blank"> </span>do <span class="blank _f"> </span>consumo <span class="blank _f"> </span>das <span class="blank"> </span>fam<span class="blank _1"></span>ílias <span class="blank"> </span>e <span class="blank _f"> </span>do <span class="blank"> </span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>overno. <span class="blank _f"> </span>Embora <span class="blank"> </span>a <span class="blank"> </span>participação <span class="blank _f"> </span>dos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y186 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">investim<span class="blank _1"></span>entos do <span class="blank _1"></span>setor <span class="blank _1"></span>públ<span class="blank _1"></span>ico</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x11 h13 y187 ff3 fs0 fc1 sc0 ls4">3</div></div><div class="t m0 x59 h10 y186 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">, incl<span class="blank _1"></span>uindo <span class="blank _1"></span>as <span class="blank _1"></span>empresas <span class="blank _1"></span>estatais, <span class="blank _1"></span>seja <span class="blank _1"></span>menor <span class="blank _1"></span>hoje <span class="blank _1"></span>qu<span class="blank _1"></span>e na <span class="blank _1"></span>década<span class="blank _1"></span> </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y188 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">de <span class="blank _3"> </span>1970, <span class="blank _0"> </span>os <span class="blank _3"> </span>dados <span class="blank _3"> </span>mostram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _0"> </span>que <span class="blank _3"> </span>el<span class="blank _0"> </span>e <span class="blank _0"> </span>ainda <span class="blank _3"> </span>tem <span class="blank _0"> </span>i<span class="blank _0"> </span>mportâ<span class="blank _1"></span>ncia <span class="blank _3"> </span>crucial <span class="blank _0"> </span>na <span class="blank _3"> </span>formação <span class="blank _0"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>capital <span class="blank _0"> </span>na </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y189 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">economia <span class="blank _15"> </span>brasileira <span class="blank _15"> </span>e, <span class="blank _15"> </span>consequentem<span class="blank _1"></span>ente, <span class="blank _15"> </span>exerce <span class="blank _15"> </span>influência <span class="blank _15"> </span>sig<span class="blank _1"></span>nificativa <span class="blank _15"> </span>na <span class="blank _15"> </span>taxa <span class="blank _15"> </span>de </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y18a ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">crescimento <span class="blank _4"></span>do PI<span class="blank _4"></span>B. Sendo <span class="blank _4"></span>assim, <span class="blank _1"></span>sua <span class="blank _4"></span>queda <span class="blank _1"></span>caracteriz<span class="blank _1"></span>ar<span class="ls1d ws21">ia</span> um<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _4"></span>inflexão c<span class="blank _1"></span>ontracio<span class="blank _1"></span>nista <span class="blank _1"></span>que, <span class="blank _4"></span><span class="ls14 ws19">na<span class="blank _0"> </span><span class="ls4 ws12"> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y18b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">visão <span class="blank _2"> </span>heterodox<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>aqui <span class="blank _2"> </span>discutida, <span class="blank _2"> </span>teria <span class="blank _6"> </span>desencadeado <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>crise. <span class="blank _2"> </span>Essa<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>queda,<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>entretanto,<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _2"> </span>como </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">mostra <span class="blank _f"> </span>o <span class="blank _10"> </span>Gráfico <span class="blank _2"> </span>6 <span class="blank"> </span>aba<span class="blank _1"></span>ixo, <span class="blank _f"> </span>não <span class="blank _f"> </span>se <span class="blank _f"> </span>verifica <span class="blank _f"> </span>claramente <span class="blank _f"> </span>no <span class="blank _f"> </span>período <span class="blank _f"> </span>que <span class="blank _f"> </span>precedeu <span class="blank _10"> </span>a <span class="blank _f"> </span>crise, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11c ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">contrastando <span class="blank _1"></span>com<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>o que <span class="blank _1"></span>ocorreu <span class="blank _1"></span>em <span class="blank _4"></span>oca<span class="blank _0"> </span>siões <span class="blank _1"></span>anterio<span class="blank _1"></span>res<span class="ls14">. </span>De fato, <span class="blank _1"></span>nos <span class="blank _1"></span>anos <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>se <span class="blank _1"></span>seguiram<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>aos </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11d ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">fortes <span class="blank _5"> </span>ajustes <span class="blank _5"> </span>fiscais <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _5"> </span>1999 <span class="blank _9"> </span>e <span class="blank _5"> </span>2003, <span class="blank _9"> </span>os <span class="blank _5"> </span>investimentos <span class="blank _9"> </span>públicos <span class="blank _5"> </span>permaneceram <span class="blank _5"> </span>deprimidos, </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11e ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">somente v<span class="blank _1"></span>oltando <span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _1"></span>crescer <span class="blank _1"></span>em <span class="blank _1"></span>relação <span class="blank _1"></span>ao PI<span class="blank _1"></span>B v<span class="blank _1"></span>ários ano<span class="ls17">s <span class="blank _1"></span><span class="ls4">depoi<span class="blank _1"></span>s, em<span class="blank _1"></span> <span class="blank _1"></span>especial a <span class="blank _1"></span>partir<span class="blank _1"></span> de <span class="blank _1"></span>2007<span class="blank _1"></span> </span></span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y11f ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">com <span class="blank _5"> </span>o <span class="blank _9"> </span>l<span class="blank _0"> </span>ançam<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _9"> </span>do <span class="blank _9"> </span>Program<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _5"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>Aceleração <span class="blank _5"> </span>do <span class="blank _9"> </span>Crescimento <span class="blank _9"> </span>- <span class="blank _9"> </span>PAC. <span class="blank _5"> </span>Diferentemente, <span class="blank _9"> </span>no </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y120 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">primeiro <span class="blank _6"> </span>gov<span class="blank _1"></span>erno <span class="blank _6"> </span>Dilma, <span class="blank _9"> </span>após<span class="blank _0"> </span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>a <span class="blank _2"> </span>expre<span class="blank _1"></span>ssiva <span class="blank _9"> </span>queda <span class="blank _6"> </span>inicial <span class="blank _6"> </span>como <span class="blank _6"> </span>parte <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank _6"> </span>ajuste <span class="blank _9"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>2011, <span class="blank _6"> </span><span class="ls14">o </span></div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y6b ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">investim<span class="blank _1"></span>ento <span class="blank _6"> </span>público <span class="blank _6"> </span>volt<span class="ls14 ws19">ou</span> <span class="blank _6"> </span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>crescer <span class="blank _9"> </span><span class="lsb">e <span class="blank _2"> </span></span>se <span class="blank _9"> </span>manteve <span class="blank _6"> </span>relativam<span class="blank _1"></span>ente <span class="blank _6"> </span>estáv<span class="ls12 ws15">el</span> <span class="blank _9"> </span>até <span class="blank _6"> </span>2014 <span class="blank _6"> </span>em <span class="blank _9"> </span>um </div><div class="t m0 xc h10 y121 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">patamar muito s<span class="blank _1"></span>uperior àquele vigente <span class="blank _1"></span>nos vinte anos a<span class="blank _1"></span>nteriores. </div><div class="t m0 x10 h10 y122 ff3 fs6 fc1 sc0 ls1f ws12"> <span class="fs4 ls4 v4">Gráfico 6 </span></div><div class="t m0 x46 h9 y18c ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Investimento total <span class="ls8">e </span>do setor público (% do PIB) </div><div class="t m0 x5a h9 y18d ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 xf h9 y18e ff3 fs4 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Fonte: IBGE (série antiga), Orair (2016) (Setor Público ajustado para incluir PMCMV FAR), </div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 xc h5 y2b ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div></div><div class="t m0 xe h5 y2b ff3 fs2 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12"> </div><div class="t m0 x10 hd y18f ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">(</div><div class="c xd y2a w3 hb"><div class="t m0 x17 hd y18f ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4">3</div></div><div class="t m0 x18 hd y18f ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls1a ws12">) <span class="ls4">No caso do<span class="blank _1"></span> Gover<span class="blank _1"></span>no Federal, do <span class="blank _1"></span>ponto de vis<span class="blank _1"></span>ta das Co<span class="blank _1"></span>ntas Nacio<span class="blank _1"></span>nais, co<span class="blank _1"></span>nsideram-se como investimento<span class="blank _1"></span> apenas as<span class="blank _1"></span> </span></div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y190 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">despesas refe<span class="blank _1"></span>rentes à Formação Bruta de Capital F<span class="blank _1"></span>ixo. No entanto, do ponto de v<span class="blank _1"></span>ista de análise das despesas públ<span class="blank _1"></span>icas, parte do </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y2e ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">que <span class="blank _3"> </span>é <span class="blank _3"> </span>comumente <span class="blank _0"> </span>considerado <span class="blank _3"> </span>como <span class="blank _0"> </span>sub<span class="blank _0"> </span>sí<span class="blank _1"></span>dio <span class="blank _3"> </span>às <span class="blank _3"> </span>famílias <span class="blank _3"> </span>tem, <span class="blank _0"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _0"> </span>ponto <span class="blank _3"> </span>de <span class="blank _3"> </span>vista <span class="blank _3"> </span>macroeconômico, <span class="blank _0"> </span>um <span class="blank _3"> </span>efeito <span class="blank _3"> </span>semelhante <span class="blank _0"> </span>ao </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y97 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">daquela. <span class="blank _6"> </span>São <span class="blank _6"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>particular <span class="blank _6"> </span>importância <span class="blank _6"> </span>os <span class="blank _6"> </span>subsídios <span class="blank"> </span>n<span class="blank _1"></span>a <span class="blank _6"> </span>forma <span class="blank _6"> </span>de <span class="blank _6"> </span>ap<span class="blank _0"> </span>orte<span class="blank _1"></span>s <span class="blank _6"> </span>do <span class="blank"> </span>g<span class="blank _1"></span>over<span class="blank _1"></span>no <span class="blank _6"> </span>para <span class="blank"> </span>as <span class="blank _9"> </span>c<span class="blank _0"> </span>o<span class="blank _1"></span>ntratações <span class="blank _9"> </span>d<span class="blank _0"> </span>o <span class="blank _6"> </span>Fundo <span class="blank _6"> </span>de </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y30 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Arrendamento Resi<span class="blank _1"></span>dencial (FA<span class="blank _1"></span>R) para <span class="blank _0"> </span>a constr<span class="blank _1"></span>ução de habitações populares no âmbito do Prog<span class="blank _1"></span>rama Minha Casa Minha Vida. </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y98 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">Essa <span class="blank _1"></span>cons<span class="blank _1"></span>trução, <span class="blank _4"></span>que <span class="blank _1"></span>possui <span class="blank _4"></span>efeito <span class="blank _1"></span>ma<span class="blank _1"></span>croeconômico <span class="blank _4"></span>relevante, <span class="blank _4"></span>embo<span class="blank _0"> </span>ra <span class="blank _4"></span>normalmente <span class="blank _4"></span>menor <span class="blank _1"></span>que <span class="blank _4"></span>o <span class="blank _1"></span>de <span class="blank _4"></span>investimentos <span class="blank _4"></span>na <span class="blank _1"></span>ampliação </div><div class="t m0 x19 hd y32 ff3 fs1 fc1 sc0 ls4 ws12">da capacidade pro<span class="blank _1"></span>dutiva, não e<span class="blank _1"></span>xistiria se<span class="blank _1"></span>m o aporte do go<span class="blank _1"></span>verno. </div></div><div class="pi" data-data="{"ctm":[1.000000,0.000000,0.000000,1.000000,0.000000,0.000000]}"></div></div>
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