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A Century of Irish Business A potted economic history of Ireland God save Ireland 1988 For Sale? Aready sold (out)? Ireland in the 20th Century • “ It is difficult to avoid the impression that Irish economic performance has been the least impressive in Western Europe …. in the 20th century.” • (Lee, J.J. 1989) Joe Lee Indicators of economic failure • Slow economic growth • Low income levels • High rate of emigration – c. 1.5% p/a in the 50’s; tot. 150,000 emigrated – Population decline • c. 3000,000 in 1926 • c. 2800,000 in 1968 • c. 7000,000 in 1841 Ireland in the 40’s and 50’s The 50’s The 40’s The Vicious Circle of Emigration • Few employment opportunities • Emigration • Decline in population • Depressed domestic market • Few profitable opportunities • The socio-cultural context • Network of social control Population trend in 20th (and 21st*) Century • 1926 – c. 3000,000 • 1968 – c. 2800,000 • 1986 – c. 3500,000 • 2008 – c. 4200,000 • 2013 – c. 4600,000 Growth Rates 1926 - 2000 1926-47 1947-60 1960-80 1980-93 1993-2000 • GDP 0.9 2.3 4.1 3.3 8.3 • Population 0.0 -0.4 0.9 0.4 0.8 • GDP/capita 0.9 2.7 3.1 2.9 7.4 • Employment 0.0 -1.3 0.5 0.0 4.7 Accounting for failure • Colonial history??? • Lack of natural resources? • Unimaginative (poor) policy? English Colonialism The Irish Free State: 1922 • Some advantages • Some early challenges – Ireland relatively wealthy & good banking system – Good physical & communications infrastructure – Good civil/public service & level of education – Civil War and damage to infrastructure – Divided political elite – Post WWI boom over & followed by Wall St crash 1929 – Heavy dependence on UK for trade Group outside NUI offices 1923. The New State - IFS • Continuity • Substitution of one elite for another – New ambitious nationalist Catholic elite • Strong link between state & Catholic Church – Legacy of British Rule? – The Church plays a pivotal in controlling the internal moral and external behaviour of the Irish citizenry – industrial schools, Magdalene launderies, orphanages, Sunday Mass, the cofessional, etc. Conservatism & the early State • Social conservatism: a belief in traditional morality & social mores; a desire to preserve these often through civil law & regulation • Anti-modernism • General acceptance • Culture of pessimism, passivity and perhaps even hopelessness • Divorce, abortion, and artificial contraception, homosexuality, salacious books and film & theatre heavily censored Agriculture: the dominant activity • Farming dominated society & politics – 32% 0f GDP & 54% of employment • 200,000 farms between 6 & 40 hectares • Obsession with land ownership • 10% employed in industry • “What was good for agriculture was good for Ireland” Agriculture Ambivalent attitudes to Economic Development • Policymakers objective: Rural, agrarian, Gaelic & Catholic • Little investment in infrastructure • Powerful groups interested in redistribution of portions of the ‘cake’ & not in making ‘cake’ bigger. • Industrial development a fantasy? Education Policy • Controlled by church • Circumscribed and non-technical • Expansion resisted by Church and farming groups • Failure to link education and development • Wealthy and conservative Catholic schools develop the elite and exclude the ‘undesirables’ The Impact of Emigration: Social & Economic • Social change deferred • “The ‘collar’ or the dollar” • Social unrest/revolution obviated • Paradoxically,those who remained looked down on those who emigrated*** • (Today, it seems, the opinion is, rather strangely, reversed) Government Policy under (Taoiseach) Eamon de Valera • Self-sufficiency and Protectionism • Anglo-Irish Trade War 1932-38 • Increased tariffs • State companies to substitute for imports – The Sugar Company – Bord na Mona – The ICC • Control of Manufactures Act 1932 • Consequence? Decline, decline, decline Eamon deValera Ireland post WW2 • Ireland neutral & isolated during WW2 • Total GNP declined by 16% • Post war promotion of agriculture & protectionism – inefficiency • State & Church elites disdain for innovation • Technical backwardness Ireland post WW2: The 50’s • Annual growth only 1% p/a 1951-58 • Little access to private or foreign capital • GDP per capita to 60% of European average • 500,000 people emigrated (16% of pop.) • Europe experienced huge economic growth with increased incomes, mass education, innovation, etc. T.K. Whitaker – Economist & Policy- maker The late 50’s: The 1st Economic Turning Point • T.K. Whitaker: architect of modern Irish economy • Published paper “ Economic Development” 1958 – Recommended: Export-led growth through: – Trade liberalisation, & FDI The Late 50’s-1st Economic Turning Point Sean Lemass • Recognised the need for radical change in the face of the 1950’s crisis. • Drew funds from as far away as Australia. 1st Economic Turning Point • Sean Lemass – New Taoiseach in 1959 • Lemass: a moderniser • Ireland’s future in Europe • Supported Whitaker’s expansion proposals 1958-73 Export-Led Growth & FDI • Ireland cut tariffs • Anglo-Irish Free Trade Agreement (1965) & GATT (1967) • FDI promoted by subsidies & tax breaks • Export-led growth led to an increase in GDP (4.4% p/a) • Emigration declined and briefly ceased (Irish returnees) • Changing attitudes to education • Free secondary education in 1967 1973-87: Hard Times (I) • Ireland joined the EEC on Jan. 1st 1973 • Irish expectations: – Free trade to boost exports – Receipt of substantial transfers/subsidies – Decline in reliance on UK market – Investment attracted from non-European firms looking for entry point to EEC 1973-87 Hard Times (II) • 1973 – First Oil Crisis (Ireland energy dependent 70%) • Recession in major economies & in Ireland • Trade deficit, inflation and heavy borrowing • Economy recovered by 1977 but new Government raised spending massively 1973-87: Hard Times (III) • Ireland & EMS 1979 – Broke link with Sterling – Exports to UK now only 33% of total • Second oil crisis 1979 • Ireland borrowed even more • 1979 – 7.3% unemployment • 1985 – 17.4% unemployment • GDP only 64% of European average 1988 • The Economist Headline Jan. 1988 •POOREST OF THE RICH • Ireland a basket case • IMF might be needed Poorest of the Rich 1997 • The Economist Headline May 1997 • Europe’s Shining Light Europe’s Shining Light 2010 • ‘BANAMA’ REPUBLIC • NAMA • The Crisis – The failure of regulation • The failure of politicians and regulators • The greed of bankers and developers – Anglo-Irish Bank- Fitzpatrick – Irish Nationwide – Finnegan – AIB, BOI, EBS, etc – IMF???? – Austerity, austerity, austerity....... Unemployment The rate The people Agri-Food Sector in Ireland 2011 Slide 1: A Century of Irish Business Slide 2: God save Ireland 1988 Slide 3: For Sale? Aready sold (out)? Slide 4: Ireland in the 20th Century Slide 5: Joe Lee Slide 6: Indicators of economic failure Slide 7: Ireland in the 40’s and 50’s Slide 8: The Vicious Circle of Emigration Slide 9: Population trend in 20th (and 21st*) Century Slide 10: Growth Rates 1926 - 2000 Slide 11: Accounting for failure Slide 12: English Colonialism Slide 13: The Irish Free State: 1922 Slide 14: Group outside NUI offices 1923. Slide 15: The New State - IFS Slide 16: Conservatism & the early State Slide 17: Agriculture: the dominant activity Slide 18: Agriculture Slide 19: Ambivalent attitudes to Economic Development Slide 20: Education Policy Slide 21: The Impact of Emigration: Social & Economic Slide 22: Government Policy under (Taoiseach) Eamon de Valera Slide 23: Eamon deValera Slide 24: Ireland post WW2 Slide 25: Ireland post WW2: The 50’s Slide 26: T.K. Whitaker – Economist & Policy-maker Slide 27: The late 50’s: The 1st Economic Turning Point Slide 28: TheLate 50’s-1st Economic Turning Point Slide 29: 1st Economic Turning Point Slide 30: 1958-73 Export-Led Growth & FDI Slide 31: 1973-87: Hard Times (I) Slide 32: 1973-87 Hard Times (II) Slide 33: 1973-87: Hard Times (III) Slide 34: 1988 Slide 35: Poorest of the Rich Slide 36: 1997 Slide 37: Europe’s Shining Light Slide 38: 2010 Slide 39 Slide 40 Slide 41: Unemployment Slide 42: Agri-Food Sector in Ireland 2011