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Welcome to Paper 10 LandEcon Paper10 1 Agenda • Get to know each other • Paper overview • Teaching plan for Michaelmas 2022 • Lecture 01 Paper 10 - Distinctiveness • No single textbook • Combining two types of knowledge: 1. Knowledge = Empirical data X Mathematics 2. Knowledge = Experience X Sensitivity • Experience: how you read/feel the built environment • Sensitivity: awareness of the experience & how to make decisions 2 Source: Homo Deus (Harari, 2017) LandEcon Paper10 LandEcon Paper10 3 Knowledge = Experience X Sensitivity LandEcon Paper10 4 Knowledge = Experience X Sensitivity Paper 10 - Distinctiveness • No single textbook • Combining two types of knowledge: 1. Knowledge = Empirical data X Mathematics 2. Knowledge = Experience X Sensitivity • Experience: how you read/feel the built environment • Sensitivity: awareness of the experience & how to make decisions 5 Source: Homo Deus (Harari, 2017) LandEcon Paper10 • Drawing your own experience • A comparative perspective LandEcon Paper10 6 “ What is needed, in education for the built environment, is to expose students to the ways of cooperative working to achieve common and productive outcomes.” Sir Prof Peter Hall Systems maps 10 Exogenous and historical GHG emissions Exogenous factors Consumer durables in household possession Housing pricesPopulation Demand for housing Demand for living space Number of dual-earner families Household debt Number of Households Human health and wellbeing Access to credit Car ownership Congestion Economic growth-GDP Size of households Property tax Housing wealth Fossil fuel price Inbound tourism Globalisa- tion Global mobility of people Birth rate Life expectancy Rural Land price Commuting distance Car (& truck) usage Commuting time Physical inactivity Noxious/ GHG Emissions Population density Social cohesion E!ective density Injuries Farmer access to alternative revenues Employ- ment Disposable income Spread of disease Demand for energy Access to services that enhance the quality of life Extent of mixed-use development Extent of cross- commuting Agglomera- tion economies Localisation economies Urbanisa- tion economies Access to public transport Extent of motorway network Demand for renewable energy Demand for UK agricultural land Demand for coal Urban growth Amount of land in private trusts Demand for bio-energy Demand for wind energy Spatial separation of functions Sub- urbanisation Speed of travel Distance between jobs and housing Local government revenue Size of dwellings Perception of overcrowding E!ective- ness of land mgt skills Knowledge intensity of economic activity Fluidity of organisational structures Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains Stability of employment Strength of local economy Demand for tourism and recreation Locational mobility of workers Home working Fuel costs Investment in housing Investment in infrastructure Demand for freight transport Competitive pressures Capacity to attract key workers Excise duties Demand for minerals extraction sites Active transport (walking, cycling) Spatial separation of minorities Agricultural commodity prices Competitive pressure on UK agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products Viability of farming business Viability of rural communities Rural employment Speed of rural land use change Economies of scale in agriculture Capital intensity of agribusiness UK agricultural intensi"cation Use of chemical inputs Intensity of ploughing Stocking density GHG emissions from cropland GHG emissions from livestock Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land Sequestra- tion of organic C GHG removal from atmosphere Forest surface area Integrity of peatland Complexity of landholding arrangements Water quality Soil quantity Soil quality Air quality Water availability Quality and quantity of biotic stocks Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services Environ- mental Equality Resilience of social- ecological systems Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species E!ectiveness of species recovery programs E!ectiveness of wider land management for wildlife Seasonal water shortages Changes in seasonal events Growing season Demand for available land Impact of climate change Groundwater pollutant concentration Surface water pollutant concentration Urban/rural groundwater recharge Agricultural water use Flooding Coastal erosion Sea level rise Precipitation Frequency and height of storm surges Frequency of extreme rainfall events Overland water runo! Average UK temperature Industrial and household GHG emissions Demand for commercial space Consumption Materials Consumption Retirement age Company car subsidy Housing supply Housing quality Exogenous factors Environ- mental Equality Demand for available land Housing quality Seasonal water shortages Groundwater pollutant concentration Surface water Surface water pollutant concentration Urban/rural groundwater recharge Agricultural water use Flooding Coastal erosion Sea level rise Precipitation Frequency and height of storm surges Frequency of extreme rainfall events Overland water runo! dwellings Housing supply Inbound tourism Demand for tourism and recreation Consumption Consumer durables in household Number of dual-earner families Household debt Access to Economic growth-GDP Property Housing wealth Employ- ment Disposable income Agglomera- tion economies Localisation economies Urbanisa- tion economies Local government revenue Strength of local economyeconomyeconomy Investment in housing Investment in infrastructure Capacity to attract key workers Demand for commercial spacespacespace Housing prices Demand for housing Demand for living space Access to credit Property tax government revenue Size of dwellings Demand for commercial spacespacespace Property government revenue Access to Demand for commercial spacespacespace Consumer durables in household possessionpossessionpossession Employ Disposable income Consumer durables in household Employ Disposable income Size of dwellings Population density E!ective density Access to services that enhance the quality of lifequality of lifequality of life Extent of mixed-use developmentdevelopmentdevelopment Urban growth Spatial separation of functions Sub- urbanisation Perception of overcrowding Spatial separation of minorities supplysupply Social cohesion Active transport (walking, cycling) Knowledge intensity of Knowledge intensity of Knowledge economic intensity of economic intensity of activityactivityactivity Fluidity of organisational structures Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and logistical chains logistical chains logistical Stability of employment Home working Competitive pressures Retirement age Fossil fuel price Demand for energy Demand for renewable energyenergyenergy Demand for coal Demand for bio-energy Demand for wind energy Fuel costs Excise duties Demand for Demand for minerals extraction sites Materials Consumption Car ownership Congestion Commuting distance Car (& truck) usage Commuting time Physical inactivity Noxious/ GHG Emissions Injuries Extent of cross- commutingcommutingcommuting Access to public transport network Distance between jobs and housing Locational mobilityof workers Demand for Demand for freight transport Company car subsidy Population Number of Households Size of households Globalisa- tion Global mobility of people Birth rate Life expectancy Size of households Size of households Amount of land in private trustsprivate trustsprivate trusts Quality and quantity of biotic stocksbiotic stocksbiotic stocks Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks Capacity of land to deliver Capacity of land to deliver Capacity of ecosystem services ecosystem services ecosystem Quantity and quality of nature Quantity and quality of nature Quantity and reserves and quality of nature reserves and quality of nature protected areas Conservation status of specialist species of conservation of specialist species of conservation of specialist species concern Conservation status of generalist species of conservation of generalist species of conservation of generalist species concern Conservation status of wider environmental species E!ectiveness of species recovery programs E!ectiveness of E!ectiveness of wider land management for wildlife management for wildlife management Resilience of Resilience of social- ecological systemssystemssystems Water quality Soil quantity Soil quality Air quality Water availability Human health and wellbeing Spread of disease Exogenous and historical GHG emissions Use of chemical inputs Intensity of ploughing Stocking density GHG emissions from cropland GHG emissions from livestock Sequestra- tion of organic Corganic C GHG removal from atmosphere Integrity of peatland Changes in seasonal events Growing season Impact of climate changechange Average UK temperature Industrial and household GHG emissions Rural Land price Farmer access to alternative revenues Demand for UK agricultural UK agricultural land E!ective- ness of land mgt skillsmgt skills Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural commodity prices Competitive Competitive pressure on UK agricultureUK agricultureUK agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products Viability of Viability of farming business Viability of rural communities Rural employment Speed of rural land use changeuse changeuse change Economies Economies of scale in agriculture Capital intensity of agribusiness UK agricultural intensi"cation Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural agricultural to non-agricultural agricultural to land non-agricultural land non-agricultural Forest surface area Complexity of landholding arrangements Demographics Economic Structure Consumption Demand for energy Transport Housing Urban structure Water Agriculture (A)Biotic stocks Climate change Wellbeing Economic Growth Land System In!uence Diagram Foresight project on Land Use Futures Copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba Land system – clustered infl uence diagram Foresight Land Use Futures (2010). Systems maps. The Government Office for Science, London. Influence factors of the land system Systems maps 10 Exogenous and historical GHG emissions Exogenous factors Consumer durables in household possession Housing pricesPopulation Demand for housing Demand for living space Number of dual-earner families Household debt Number of Households Human health and wellbeing Access to credit Car ownership Congestion Economic growth-GDP Size of households Property tax Housing wealth Fossil fuel price Inbound tourism Globalisa- tion Global mobility of people Birth rate Life expectancy Rural Land price Commuting distance Car (& truck) usage Commuting time Physical inactivity Noxious/ GHG Emissions Population density Social cohesion E!ective density Injuries Farmer access to alternative revenues Employ- ment Disposable income Spread of disease Demand for energy Access to services that enhance the quality of life Extent of mixed-use development Extent of cross- commuting Agglomera- tion economies Localisation economies Urbanisa- tion economies Access to public transport Extent of motorway network Demand for renewable energy Demand for UK agricultural land Demand for coal Urban growth Amount of land in private trusts Demand for bio-energy Demand for wind energy Spatial separation of functions Sub- urbanisation Speed of travel Distance between jobs and housing Local government revenue Size of dwellings Perception of overcrowding E!ective- ness of land mgt skills Knowledge intensity of economic activity Fluidity of organisational structures Fluidity and leanness of logistical chains Stability of employment Strength of local economy Demand for tourism and recreation Locational mobility of workers Home working Fuel costs Investment in housing Investment in infrastructure Demand for freight transport Competitive pressures Capacity to attract key workers Excise duties Demand for minerals extraction sites Active transport (walking, cycling) Spatial separation of minorities Agricultural commodity prices Competitive pressure on UK agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products Viability of farming business Viability of rural communities Rural employment Speed of rural land use change Economies of scale in agriculture Capital intensity of agribusiness UK agricultural intensi"cation Use of chemical inputs Intensity of ploughing Stocking density GHG emissions from cropland GHG emissions from livestock Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural land Sequestra- tion of organic C GHG removal from atmosphere Forest surface area Integrity of peatland Complexity of landholding arrangements Water quality Soil quantity Soil quality Air quality Water availability Quality and quantity of biotic stocks Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks Capacity of land to deliver ecosystem services Environ- mental Equality Resilience of social- ecological systems Quantity and quality of nature reserves and protected areas Conservation status of specialist species of conservation concern Conservation status of generalist species of conservation concern Conservation status of wider environmental species E!ectiveness of species recovery programs E!ectiveness of wider land management for wildlife Seasonal water shortages Changes in seasonal events Growing season Demand for available land Impact of climate change Groundwater pollutant concentration Surface water pollutant concentration Urban/rural groundwater recharge Agricultural water use Flooding Coastal erosion Sea level rise Precipitation Frequency and height of storm surges Frequency of extreme rainfall events Overland water runo! Average UK temperature Industrial and household GHG emissions Demand for commercial space Consumption Materials Consumption Retirement age Company car subsidy Housing supply Housing quality Exogenous factors Environ- mental Equality Demand for available land Housing quality Seasonal water shortages Groundwater pollutant concentration Surface water Surface water pollutant concentration Urban/rural groundwater recharge Agricultural water use Flooding Coastal erosion Sea level rise Precipitation Frequency and height of storm surges Frequency of extreme rainfall events Overland water runo! dwellings Housing supply Inbound tourism Demand for tourism and recreation Consumption Consumer durables in household Number of dual-earner families Household debt Access to Economic growth-GDP Property Housing wealth Employ- ment Disposable income Agglomera- tion economies Localisation economies Urbanisa- tion economies Local government revenue Strength of localeconomyeconomyeconomy Investment in housing Investment in infrastructure Capacity to attract key workers Demand for commercial spacespacespace Housing prices Demand for housing Demand for living space Access to credit Property tax government revenue Size of dwellings Demand for commercial spacespacespace Property government revenue Access to Demand for commercial spacespacespace Consumer durables in household possessionpossessionpossession Employ Disposable income Consumer durables in household Employ Disposable income Size of dwellings Population density E!ective density Access to services that enhance the quality of lifequality of lifequality of life Extent of mixed-use developmentdevelopmentdevelopment Urban growth Spatial separation of functions Sub- urbanisation Perception of overcrowding Spatial separation of minorities supplysupply Social cohesion Active transport (walking, cycling) Knowledge intensity of Knowledge intensity of Knowledge economic intensity of economic intensity of activityactivityactivity Fluidity of organisational structures Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and leanness of Fluidity and logistical chains logistical chains logistical Stability of employment Home working Competitive pressures Retirement age Fossil fuel price Demand for energy Demand for renewable energyenergyenergy Demand for coal Demand for bio-energy Demand for wind energy Fuel costs Excise duties Demand for Demand for minerals extraction sites Materials Consumption Car ownership Congestion Commuting distance Car (& truck) usage Commuting time Physical inactivity Noxious/ GHG Emissions Injuries Extent of cross- commutingcommutingcommuting Access to public transport network Distance between jobs and housing Locational mobility of workers Demand for Demand for freight transport Company car subsidy Population Number of Households Size of households Globalisa- tion Global mobility of people Birth rate Life expectancy Size of households Size of households Amount of land in private trustsprivate trustsprivate trusts Quality and quantity of biotic stocksbiotic stocksbiotic stocks Quality and quantity of abiotic stocks Capacity of land to deliver Capacity of land to deliver Capacity of ecosystem services ecosystem services ecosystem Quantity and quality of nature Quantity and quality of nature Quantity and reserves and quality of nature reserves and quality of nature protected areas Conservation status of specialist species of conservation of specialist species of conservation of specialist species concern Conservation status of generalist species of conservation of generalist species of conservation of generalist species concern Conservation status of wider environmental species E!ectiveness of species recovery programs E!ectiveness of E!ectiveness of wider land management for wildlife management for wildlife management Resilience of Resilience of social- ecological systemssystemssystems Water quality Soil quantity Soil quality Air quality Water availability Human health and wellbeing Spread of disease Exogenous and historical GHG emissions Use of chemical inputs Intensity of ploughing Stocking density GHG emissions from cropland GHG emissions from livestock Sequestra- tion of organic Corganic C GHG removal from atmosphere Integrity of peatland Changes in seasonal events Growing season Impact of climate changechange Average UK temperature Industrial and household GHG emissions Rural Land price Farmer access to alternative revenues Demand for UK agricultural UK agricultural land E!ective- ness of land mgt skillsmgt skills Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural commodity prices Competitive Competitive pressure on UK agricultureUK agricultureUK agriculture Demand for UK agricultural products Viability of Viability of farming business Viability of rural communities Rural employment Speed of rural land use changeuse changeuse change Economies Economies of scale in agriculture Capital intensity of agribusiness UK agricultural intensi"cation Conversion of agricultural to non-agricultural agricultural to non-agricultural agricultural to land non-agricultural land non-agricultural Forest surface area Complexity of landholding arrangements Demographics Economic Structure Consumption Demand for energy Transport Housing Urban structure Water Agriculture (A)Biotic stocks Climate change Wellbeing Economic Growth Land System In!uence Diagram Foresight project on Land Use Futures Copyright® 2009 shiftn cvba Land system – clustered infl uence diagram Foresight Land Use Futures (2010). Systems maps. The Government Office for Science, London. Paper 11: Land and Urban economics Paper 16: Land, Food and Ecosystem Services Paper 7: Regional economics and Policy Paper 14: Planning Policy and Practice Paper 5: Environmental Economics and Law Paper 4: Land Economy, Development and Sustainability Influence factors of the land system Lectures & Supervisions in Michaelmas Term LandEcon Paper10 9Available on Moodle Wk. Date Lecture Location 1 7 Oct Definition and classifications of the built environment Cormack Room 2 14 Oct Density, agglomeration and implications 17, 18 & 19 Oct. Supervision A1 (10min Presentation) (Booking open: 7 Oct; Submission deadline: 14 Oct) tbc 3 21 Oct Evolution of the urban spatial structure Cormack Room 4 28 Oct Who to blame for traffic congestion – Understanding land-use and transport interaction 31 Oct, 1 & 2 Nov Supervision A2 (Essay) (Booking open: 14 Oct; Submission deadline: 23 Oct) tbc 5 4 Nov Modelling the built environment (I) – Theory and Method Cormack Room 6 11 Nov Modelling the built environment (II) – Case study 14, 15 & 16 Nov Supervision A3 (Essay) (Booking open: 24 Oct; Submission deadline: 6 Nov) tbc 7 18 Nov Streets, neighbourhoods and the public realm – A design perspective Cormack Room 8 25 Nov Built environment and sustainability 28 Nov, 29 & 30 Nov Supervision A4 (Essay & Workshop) (Booking open: 11 Nov; Submission deadline: 20 Nov) tbc PAPER 10 - Built Environment Lecture 01 Overview of the Built Environment Definitions and Classifications Dr Li Wan Land Economy Tripos Department of Land Economy University of Cambridge Lecture 01 Definitions: • What is the built environment • What is a city & built-up area • Cities and Towns in Britain • World cities – Now and Future Classifications: • Urban-rural classification • Urban functional areas – UK Travel to work areas (TTWAs) • The fast and the slow – a temporal dimension LandEcon Paper10 11 Built environment • The human-made environment • It mainly includes: • Buildings • Economic infrastructure (e.g. transport networks, utilities) • Social infrastructure (e.g. housing, healthcare, education, public spaces) => Cities LandEcon Paper10 12 LandEcon Paper10 13 Cities do not have a long history. (primates 65m; Homo sapiens 300k; cities 5k) https://www.techcrates.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/evolution-computers.jpg Uruk in Mesopotamia (c. 2900 BC) One of the earliest cities in the world 14 Anu district, Phase E of Uruk III. Sumerian city Uruk. Photo: Project SAHI-Tell Jokha; Drahoslav Hulínek, 2017. LandEcon Paper10 Uruk in Mesopotamia (c. 2900 BC) One of the earliest cities in the world 15LandEcon Paper10 What is a modern city? LandEcon Paper10 16 Toronto, Canada • Municipality (2.6m) • Urban agglomeration (5.1m) • Metropolitan area (5.6m) LandEcon Paper10 17 UN (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018—Data Booklet (ST/ESA/ SER.A/417). Urban agglomeration is the continuous urban built-up area, i.e. the urban extent LandEcon Paper10 18Municipality (c. 4.4m pop. 2019) Urban agglomeration Metropolitan area (c. 9.4m pop. 2019) Nairobi, Kenya LandEcon Paper10 19 Degree of Urbanization (UN-Habitat) • Based on grid cells of 1 sq.km • Cities: settlements of at least 50,000 inhabitants in a high-density cluster of grid cells (greater than 1,500 inhabitants per sq. km) • Towns and semi-dense areas: an urban cluster with at least 5,000 inhabitants in contiguous moderate-density grid cells (at least 300 inhabitants per sq. km) outside cities • Rural areas: grid cells with a density of less than 300 inhabitants per sq. km or higher density cells that do not belong to a city, town or semi-dense area LandEcon Paper10 20 LandEcon Paper10 21 Reference: A unified city definition - built-up area - Density / Degree of urbanisation From City to City region LandEcon Paper10 22 https://www.economist.com/china/2018/06/23/china-is-trying-to-turn-itself-into-a-country-of-19-super-regions LandEcon Paper10 23 City proper of Beijing (16.4k km2, 22m population in 2021) Greater Beijing (‘Jing Jin Ji’) city region 215,870 km2, 112m residents (2016) LandEcon Paper10 24 Dallas Phoenix LA SF Seattle Portland Denver Detroit Chicago NY & Boston Orlando Lecture 01 Definitions: • What is the built environment • What is a city & built-up area • Cities and Towns in Britain • World cities – Now and Future Classifications: • Urban-rural classification • Urban functional areas – UK Travel to work areas (TTWAs) • The fast and the slow – a temporal dimension LandEcon Paper10 25 LandEcon Paper10 26 What is a built up area? 1: Motorway 2: Farmland 3: City centre 4: Airport LandEcon Paper10 27 What is a built-up area? (ONS definition, 2011) • Built-up • Spatially continuous • Minimum area of 20 hectares • Settlements within 200 metres of each other are linked LandEcon Paper10 28 Reference: Methodology for deriving the built- up areas in the UK LandEcon Paper10 29 Useful land data sources: • Generalised Land Use Dataset (GLUD, 2010) • Land Cover Map data (2015) on Edina https://digimap.edina.ac.uk/webhelp/environment/data_information/landcover_data.htm LandEcon Paper10 30 https://geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/ons::built-up-area-sub-divisions-december-2011- boundaries/explore?location=52.908900%2C-2.000000%2C7.79 LandEcon Paper10 31 Characteristics of the built-up areas 9.6% of land is built-up (1.4 million ha) 95% of usual residents live in built-up areas LandEcon Paper10 32 In 2011 across England and Wales : % of other land use in the UK: Agriculture: 75% Forestry.: 13% Built-up areas in England and Wales LandEcon Paper10 33 Population range: 100 – 9.8 million across 5,493 built-up areas (2011) The four major built-up areas are: • Greater London – 9.8m usual residents • Greater Manchester – 2.6m usual residents • West Midlands – 2.4m usual residents • West Yorkshire – 1.8m usual residents Quiz: % built-up area around the world • %built-up area in the world? • Highest country in Europe and in the world? LandEcon Paper10 34 LandEcon Paper10 35 %built-up area in other countries 0.59 1.13 1.63 2.89 5.89 14.89 16.96 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 Au st ra lia Ic el an d Ca na da Fi nl an d Ch ile La tv ia Es to ni a Sw ed en O EC D A si a O ce an ia N ew Z ea la nd Li th ua ni a W or ld N or w ay M ex ic o G 20 Tu rk ey O EC D - To ta l C hi na (P eo pl e' s Re pu bl ic o f) G 7 Ire la nd U ni te d St at es G re ec e Sp ai n Po la nd O EC D - Eu ro pe Sl ov en ia Eu ro pe an U ni on (2 8… Au st ria Ko re a Hu ng ar y Eu ro a re a (1 9 co un tr ie s) Fr an ce Sl ov ak R ep ub lic Cz ec h Re pu bl ic Po rt ug al De nm ar k Ita ly Is ra el Sw itz er la nd U ni te d Ki ng do m Ja pa n G er m an y Lu xe m bo ur g H on g Ko ng , C hi na Be lg iu m N et he rla nd s Built-up areas as percent of total land area by country (2014) (Source: OECD database) LandEcon Paper10 36 Singapore: 50.51% (2014) Note: "Built-up" in OECD data is defined as the presence of buildings (roofed structures), which excludes e.g. paved surfaces (roads, parking lots), commercial and industrial sites (ports, landfills, quarries, runways) and urban green spaces (parks, gardens). LandEcon Paper10 37 Size of Singapore: 721.5 km2 http://senseable.mit.edu/unparking/ built-up area change LandEcon Paper10 38 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% C hi na (P eo pl e' s Re pu bl ic o f) N or w ay M ex ic o Fi nl an d Ko re a Ire la nd G 20 Po la nd W or ld Ca na da N AF TA U ni te d St at es Tu rk ey Fr an ce O EC D - T ot al G 7 Sw ed en De nm ar k Po rt ug al Sw itz er la nd Sp ai n H un ga ry Ic el an d Eu ro pe an U ni on – 27 co un tr ie s … O EC D - E ur op e Ch ile Eu ro a re a (1 9 co un tr ie s) Eu ro pe an U ni on (2 8 co un tr ie s) Lu xe m bo ur g Au st ria N et he rla nd s Li th ua ni a La tv ia Sl ov en ia Ita ly Is ra el Au st ra lia Cz ec h Re pu bl ic Be lg iu m G er m an y Co lo m bi a Es to ni a N ew Z ea la nd G re ec e O EC D As ia O ce an ia Sl ov ak R ep ub lic U ni te d Ki ng do m Ja pa n Built-up area change from 2000 to 2014 (% per annum, assuming exponential growth) (Source: OECD database) Why UK stands on this end? Supervision 1 • Download the OECD data on ‘built-up area per capita’ on Moodle • Analyse • Prepare a 7-slide (approximately 5 min) presentation, discussing your findings, and • Write a 150-word abstract summarising the findings. Submission deadline: midnight 14 Oct 2022 PDF format only LandEcon Paper10 39 LandEcon Paper10 40 LandEcon Paper10 41 Interdependence between cities and roads Cities emerge as centres for trade, which rely on transport accessibility. Towns and Cities in the UK ONS definition: • 112 towns and cities in England and Wales (2015) • The boundaries do not follow administrative areas, but are instead based on built-up area • A resident or workday population size above 75,000 (as measured in the 2011 Census) LandEcon Paper10 42 Towns and Cities in the UK Parliament definition: City & Town Classification of Constituencies & Local Authorities • 12 Core Cities: twelve major population and economic centres (e.g. London, Glasgow, Sheffield) • 24 Other Cities: other settlements with a population of more than 175,000 (e.g. Leicester, Portsmouth, Aberdeen) • 119 Large Towns: settlements with a population between 60,000 and 174,999 (e.g. Warrington, Hemel Hempstead, Farnborough) • 270 Medium Towns: settlements with a population between 25,000 and 59,999 • 674 Small Towns: settlements with a population between 7,500 and 24,999 • 6,116 Villages and small communities: settlements with a population of less than 7,500 LandEcon Paper10 43 https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8322/ World cities – Now & Future LandEcon Paper10 44 How many cities in the world? LandEcon Paper10 45 371 548 706 33 43 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2000 2018 2030 - Projection Number of world cities (>=1m population) (Source: UN The World's Cities in 2018) 1m-10m Population >10m Population (data for 2000 not available) UN (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018Note: No stats for >10m cities in 2000 Cities: urban agglomerations with 1m+ population How many cities in the world? LandEcon Paper10 46 UN Habitat - World Cities Report (2022) Cities: urban agglomerations with >=50k population 14,000 LandEcon Paper10 47 % of urban population in the world? UN (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018 %Growth (based on pop.) 42% 38% 28% What is the world largest city now and in the future? Tokyo: • Population: 38m (2016) • Area: 13,500 km2 LandEconPaper10 48Source: Wikipedia 0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 40. 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 15 20 16 * 20 17 * 20 18 * 20 19 * 20 20 * 20 30 * M ill io ns Population of the Greater Tokyo Area 1950 to 2030 (Source: UN 2015) What is the world largest city now and in the future? LandEcon Paper10 49 UN (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018 Cities: urban agglomerations with 1m+ population LandEcon Paper10 50 UN (2018). The World’s Cities in 2018 Average rate of population growth: 5% Urbanisation and Population • For Low income countries: natural pop. growth applies everywhere; moderate internal migration. • For L-M income countries: rural-to-urban migration leads to population concentration in cities • For U-M income countries: cities saturate with progressing suburbanisation (and increasing planning interventions) • For High income countries: city expansion revived by both international and internal migration LandEcon Paper10 51 Source: World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results Urbanisation and Land use What can you find? LandEcon Paper10 52Ratio: 1.6 Ratio: 1.7Ratio: 1.5 Ratio: 3.1 Ratio: 1.0 Ratio: 1.1 Ratio: 1.3Ratio: 1.6 Ratio: 1.9 Ratio: 1.9Ratio: 3.0 Ratio: 1.9 Urbanisation and Land use • For Low income countries: natural pop. growth applies everywhere; moderate internal migration. • For L-M income countries: rural-to- urban migration leads to population concentration in cities • For U-M income countries: cities saturate with progressing suburbanisation (and increasing planning interventions) • For High income countries: city expansion revived by both international and internal migration; annexation of nearby towns LandEcon Paper10 107% 111% 71% 100% 57% 56% 21% 49% Towns Cities Towns Cities Towns Cities Towns Cities Low L-M U-M H Cumulative change of land cover (1990-2020) by income group Cities vs Towns and semi-dense areas Differences in Natural growth LandEcon Paper10 54 Urban or rural? Urban-rural classification LandEcon Paper10 55 Urban or Rural? LandEcon Paper10 56 Urban or Rural? LandEcon Paper10 57 Urban or Rural? LandEcon Paper10 58 ONS Rural-urban Classification What is urban area? • Urban areas are connected built-up areas that have resident populations above 10,000 people (2011 Census). LandEcon Paper10 59 ONS Rural-urban Classification • How many people live in urban areas in England? 82% (43.7 million, 2011) LandEcon Paper10 60 ONS Rural-urban Classification • RUC consists of four urban and six rural combinations • Based on Output Areas • smallest building block of Census geography • 100-625 residents • approx. 181k OAs for England and Wales • Each OA is assigned as urban or rural • OA classification can be aggregated • Lower-layer Super Output Areas (LSOA, population of 1-3k) • Middle-layer Super Output Areas (MSOA, populations of 5-15k) LandEcon Paper10 61https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/methodology/geography/geographicalproducts/ruralurbancla ssifications/2011ruralurbanclassification/rucoaleafletmay2015tcm77406351.pdf LandEcon Paper10 62 The urban world has changed: ‘from dichotomy to continuum’ How to define a functional urban area? Source of images: The World Bank - World Development Report 2009, 2008, p51 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) • A census geography created to reflect self-contained labour market areas • Help understanding the spatial mismatch between labour supply and demand LandEcon Paper10 63 Employed Workers Employed Residents LandEcon Paper10 64 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) • Criteria: • at least 75%* of the area's resident work in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also live in the area. • an economically active population of at least 3,500. • 228 TTWAs in the UK (as by Census 2011 data) • 149 TTWAs in England, 45 in Scotland, 18 in Wales, 10 in NI * 66.7% for areas with >25k population LandEcon Paper10 65 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) • If we calculate the area of each TTWA and match it with a circle – an appr. labour catchment area • Labour catchment area: how far a major city/town can attract labour from (NB: this is NOT the average commuting distance) • Why this shape? LandEcon Paper10 66 The area of TTWA around Cambridge is equivalent to a 29.2km-radius circle. 29.2km LandEcon Paper10 67 • Cambridge: 29.2 km - longest in England and Wales • Hartlepool: 5.7 km – shortest in England and Wales Is spatial mismatch necessarily a bad thing? LandEcon Paper10 68 The Fast and Slow in urban development • Major industrial sites and infrastructure take long time to build; • And they last for long time LandEcon Paper10 69 LandEcon Paper10 70 Where we are in 1880s LandEcon Paper10 71 Where we are in 1900s LandEcon Paper10 72 Where we are in 1920s LandEcon Paper10 73 Where we are in 1960s LandEcon Paper10 74 Where we are in 2010s LandEcon Paper10 75 Wegener, M., Gnad, F., & Vannahme, M. (1986). The time scale of urban change. Varying time scales of urban development processes Summary • City / urban agglomeration / metropolitan area / city region. • By 2030, 60% world population will live in urban areas, with 28% living in cities with 1m+ population. • African and Asian cities will see the fastest growth. • Key driver of spatial expansion: internal/international migration • In 2011, only 9.6% of total land area in E&W was built-up; 95% of population live in built- up areas. • Rural-urban classification; 82% population in England live in urban area (2011). • Understanding urban functional areas: e.g. travel to work areas in the UK; major employment centres have large labour catchment area. • Understanding the varying temporal scales of urban development processes. LandEcon Paper10 76 Supervision 1 • Download the OECD data on ‘built-up area per capita’ on Moodle • Analyse • Prepare a 7-slide (approximately 5 min) presentation, discussing your findings, and • Write a 150-word abstract summarising the findings. Submission deadline: midnight 14 Oct 2022 PDF format only LandEcon Paper10 77
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