review paper - rice production throughout pandemic

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Total planted area (ha) - Tocantins (2000, 2010 and 2020)
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Comparison between rice production (t) and growth (%) - Tocantins (2010 to 2020)
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	Crescimento (%)
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Average annual price of rice (60 kg bag in fine long husk) – Tocantins (2011 - 2020)
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Review
Indispensable villain – an analysis of rice production and market in Brazilian state of Tocantins throughout 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak
João Vitor Aires Teixeira1 Federal Institute of Tocantins (IFTO) Gurupi Campus. joao.teixeira2@estudante.ifto.edu.br; 
Maria Vitória Silva Souza2 Federal Institute of Tocantins (IFTO) Gurupi Campus. maria.souza16@estudante.ifto.edu.br; 
Mariza Ramalho Nunes3 Federal Institute of Tocantins (IFTO) Gurupi Campus. mariza.nunes@ifto.edu.br. 
	Citation: Teixeira, J. V. A; Souza, M. V. S.; NUNES, M. R. Indispensable villain – an analysis of rice production and market in Brazilian state of Tocantins throughout 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Agriculture 2022, 12, x. https://doi.org/10.3390/xxxxx
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Abstract: Brazilian Asian rice ( Oryza sativa ) cultivation during the periods between 2020 and 2021 was marked by the strong influence of a sanitary crisis that affected the entire country's economic political situation around the world, creating difficulties in the logistics, transport and production processes of the production chain of an essential part of the Brazilian food cultural choices. In the state of Tocantins, in the north of Brazil, the prices in supermarkets were a reflection of these hard times, even though it is one of the largest cereal producers in the region. This paper proposes a bibliographic review to clarify the importance of this crop for not only the sociocultural demand of the population, but also for the local economy, as well as defining the main economic characteristics of culture in the state context, in addition to a statistical and historical survey of the production and consumption, in a comparative study between the reality of decades ago and the atypical moments of today, where it was possible to observe the extreme increase in purchase and sale prices, an increase in production at the expense of public incentive policies and exchange rate instabilities of the dollar that affected the rice market as a whole.
Keywords: Asian rice, statistical survey, production, price, consumption, health crisis, COVID-19, pandemic, Tocantins, North Region.
1. Introduction
The consumption of Asian rice (Oryza sativa) is popularly known among the Brazilian population, especially when considering its indispensability in the basic food baskets of families in the country, being an essential element for meals in many homes and the main source of carbohydrates, dietary fiber, vitamins and minerals. Typically accompanied by beans, another important vegetable for the national diet and which was already consumed by Native Americans, the consumption of rice would have started, at first, with the export of the oriental species still in the colonial period, made possible with the arrival of the Portuguese court in 1808 as a way to improve the food of soldiers in the army according to historiography. Thus, Brazilianness pioneered the domestication, production, consumption and popularization in the Americas of what would later become a powerful food base and an important cultural and historical component of the country (CARNEY, 2017).
Stabilizing itself as an unbeatable and recurring consumer good, several agricultural and industrial centers promote its production and processing under different edaphoclimatic conditions due to its high adaptability in ecosystems such as those of floodplains irrigated by controlled flooding, more common in the southern region of Brazil, and the upland, including rainfed and supplementary sprinkler irrigation predominant in the Center-West and Center-North regions, thus forming a large production chain of constant demand: according to the Family Budget Survey (POF) coordinated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period 2018 - 2019 the foods with the highest average national daily consumption of rice per capita was 131.4 g/day, being at the top of the most consumed foods by the population.
It is important to point out that a good part of the rice – marketed mostly with varieties with or without husk – also has agro-industrial purposes, as can be seen in the conjuncture of the state of Tocantins, focus of the present work: managers of rice processing industries in the state estimate that 30% to 35% of the rice produced has good grain quality and is marketed soon after harvest, leaving only inferior quality rice to be marketed throughout the year, products that are absorbed by industries along the chain, a characteristic which also reveals how culture is treated in a large fraction of the country (FRAGOSO et al., 2013).
Although these factors also observable in other producing poles are responsible for forming a resistant structure, the rice market, as well as many others, is fully prone to suffer instabilities that affect it directly, especially when considering the advent of global scale due to the exchange rate increase. of the dollar that, consequently, deregulate the international and internal circumstances for the result of their activities along the entire production chain.
The scenario analogous to this brought about by the outbreak of COVID-19 and responsible for hitting supermarket shelves directly and suppressing as will be seen. Thus, in addition to the health crisis, the country faced an economic crisis due to several atypical factors reflected in the most recent statistics, as the IBGE points out, in a survey referenced to the year 2020, several essential foods for the basic basket of citizens suffered drastic increases in prices, among them it is possible to mention soybean oil, with an increase of approximately 103.79% and, especially, rice, with a total of 76.01%, a high never seen before in the last five years (SILVA et al. , 2021).
In this scenario, the extreme poverty under which around 10.3 million Brazilians were subjected became even more marked, even with social security policies made possible by the government over the period: cereal consumption fell by 5% in the year in question according to a study by the National Supply Company (CONAB) in reality where a good part of the population was exempted from having access to basic products of their daily life.
In Tocantins, the situation was no different, having been noticed by a good part of the population, who perceived their purchasing power gradually decreasing while common needs increasingly impacted a struggle between minimum wage, inflation and, above all, unemployment: according to the IBGE, the average unemployment rate in the country in 2020 was 13.5%, the highest in the series started in 2012 (SILVA et. al., 2021).
The consequences of this conjuncture maintained for a long time showed that Brazil was closer to the worrying level in the 2020 survey carried out by the Brazilian Research Network on Food and Nutrition Sovereignty and Security (PENSSAN Network). In 2018, 10.3 million people were food insecure - a concept coined by the United Nations (UN) defined, on a scaleof several factors, such as the ability to obtain and consume quality food and free from malnutrition -, in 2020 this number increased to 19.1 million, that is, it almost doubled and, when recalling the history of fighting hunger and malnutrition in the country in previous years, the situation becomes even more alarming. Above all, considering that, even in a period marked by great difficulties, Brazilian agribusiness, with a majority of agricultural exports, grew by 24.3% in 2020, according to the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil, revealing a serious discrepancy in the way in which agricultural production is managed by the government, since, in the meantime, the supply poles of domestic consumption have suffered large drops and have been severely impacted by the consequences of the pandemic period, especially in relation to rice, which requires a relatively high cost of production represented, largely due to operating costs with machinery and electricity (FRAGOSO et. al., 2013).
Thus, the object of study of this work is the analysis of the factors that influenced the production, price and consumption of rice in Tocantins. Thus, seeking to analyze rice cultivation in the state, the following question guides this work: what factors impacted the production, prices and consumption of rice in the state of Tocantins?
To this end, the work has the state of Tocantins as its delimited space and the period to be analyzed comprises the years 2010 to 2020. The choice of the storm is justified because it is a period in which the country passed important political, economic events and toilets.
Therefore, the work has the general objective of analyzing the performance of rice production in Tocantins, as well as analyzing the variation of prices and consumption of this cereal. The specific objectives consist of (1) conduct a bibliographic and data survey on the production, price and consumption of rice in the state of Tocantins and (2) to analyze the factors that influenced the production, price and consumption of rice in Tocantins.
The writing of this work is justified by the fact that there are few studies regarding the factors that impacted the production, price and consumption of rice production in the state, in view of the insertion of the pandemic as a probable factor of influence for the analyzed variables.
2. Literature review results
2.1. Rice culture: production, market and consumption
According to Carney and Marin (1999), the domestication of African rice (Oryza glaberrima) occurred more than three thousand years ago in West Africa. During the Atlantic slave trade, leftover rice supplied slave ships bound for the Americas. The early presence of such a crop in Brazilian colonization sites actually led the Brazilian botanist, Hoehne (1937), to claim that rice cultivation predated the arrival of Europeans in 1500. Rice, especially a red husk species, is present in historical documents about Brazil in the 18th century, in an extensive area of the northeast of the Amazon, in addition to the Asian variety widely consumed in Brazil already mentioned above (CARNEY; MARIN, 1999).
During the second half of the 18th century, a red rice plantation system developed in eastern Amazonia with input from the metropolis and with the aim of constituting Amazonian export markets for Portugal and reducing South Carolina's dependence on rice. This led to the implementation in the 1760s of irrigated tidal rice plantations in Amazonian regions of Amapá, Maranhão and Pará, the introduction of the high-yielding “Branco da Carolina” rice seed (an Oryza sativa variety), water-powered mills for the processing of rice, and the importation of more than 25 thousand slaves, and in 1767 the first export of milled rice to Portugal took place. (CARNEY; MARIN, 1999).
Also, according to Rohde (1995), during the colonial and imperial periods, cassava, corn, sweet potatoes and rice were the main products consumed by the Brazilian population. The growth of Oryza production was associated with the creation of pastures and the cultivation of coffee, reaching all states. Currently, Brazil has one of the largest rice crops in the world. In rice production, the country oscillates between eighth and ninth place, depending on its harvest and that of other countries, being the largest producer in the Western Hemisphere (ROHDE, 1995).
Rice is a fundamental cereal for the diet of the Brazilian people, being part of their basic diet and being cultivated in all states. According to Ferreira, Pinheiro et al. (2005), this product is an essential part of the “basic basket” provided by the government to the poorest population. However, this culture went through a period of intense transformations, both in the technological area and in the standard preference by consumers, in addition to competing with products from other countries. Thus, Brazil, which for decades worked with the prospect of reaching the international market, became the fourth largest world importer (FERREIRA; VILLAR, 2004).
In the 1990s, the Midwest region produced, on average, 15% of the national production, with emphasis on the state of Mato Grosso, which accounted for approximately 9.0% of the total production (FERREIRA E VILLAR, 2004, p. 11).
The states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are the largest producers of irrigated rice, with an average of, respectively, 44% and 6.8% of the national production in that period. Tocantins, in turn, had an average share of 3.5% in the production of that decade. According to the authors Ferreira and Villar (2004), in that same decade the planted area in Brazil was prone to reduction, while in relation to production and productivity, there was a growth trend, noting that rice productivity in highlands, areas not irrigated, exceeded the rate of irrigated rice.
During the period from 1970 to 1975, there were variations in prices with upland rice having a higher price. In 1980, irrigated rice began to consolidate, because new cultivars were introduced and consumers changed their preference, leading to the abandonment or reduction of planting by producers who did not have conditions for such agricultural activity.
“The technological changes that occurred in rice cultivation in the last decade and their consequences were discussed only by some segments of the production chain” (EMBRAPA, 2006, p. 16). It is noteworthy that in this process there was a slight change in the profile of the highland producer and that the level of consumer demand was fundamental in determining the direction of the production process. Another important factor was the change in the role of the government, which was the biggest rice merchant. It is also relevant to mention that the government did not encourage quality (FRAGOSO et al, 2013).
The main interest was to stimulate large volumes of production. The combination of other political factors also influenced the significant transformations in Brazilian rice agribusiness. Among other variables are: the globalization movement, the national economic policy that promoted trade liberalization by reducing tariffs, reducing bureaucracy in international buying and selling processes and deregulating the market, in addition to integration with Mercosur (FERREIRA; Villar, 2004).
In this context, it is possible to reaffirm that, when visualizing the history established between 1980 and 2010, it is possible to reaffirm the consolidated position of the state rice culture in the supply of culture at the national level.
2.3. Development of agribusiness in Tocantins
The creation of the state of Tocantins resulted from article 13 of the Act of Transitory Constitutional Provisions of the Constitution, on October 5, 1988, being created through the division of the northern portion of the state of Goiás, with the feasibility of the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary Powers as government signature, thus allowing the legal, political and social functioning of the new state (FEITOSA, 2011).
On October 5, 1989, the state'sfirst Constitution was promulgated, based on the Federal Constitution. On that occasion, 44 municipalities were created, in addition to the 79 already present, totaling, currently, 139.
BR-010 was relevant in the process of consolidation of cities in the Center-North region of the state of Goiás, which consequently was also a factor of strong influence for the development of the new state in prominence throughout the 19th century, enabling the creation of other municipalities (ADETUC, 1988).
Tocantins is currently emerging as the “new agricultural hub in Brazil”. This is because half of the state's territory has potential for agriculture. These are fertile lands, with competitive market value and flat topography, which favors the process of agricultural mechanization. In addition, the longer period of sunlight (compared to other Brazilian states) contributes to the increase in productivity (SEAGRO, 2018).
Thus, the Tocantins-Araguaia Hydrographic Region shows a great capacity for irrigated agriculture. The cultivation of fruit trees, rice, corn and soybeans presents a greater possibility for this area. The need to use water for irrigation is equivalent to 62% of the total demand and is centralized in the Araguaia sub-basin, due to rice cultivation by flooding (AMBIENTE BRASIL, 2003).
The availability of low-cost land and the recently installed technical structures represent the material situations necessary for the development of agricultural systems in the state. In addition to these characteristics, Tocantins has great energy, mineral and water potential, which can meet the demands of agribusiness (FORNARO, 2012).
From the perspective of the work of Castillo et. al., 1997 and Fornaro (2017) it is possible to associate the emancipation of the state with the expansion of agribusiness in Tocantins. It is from this that a new political-administrative dimension emerges, which gives another direction to the uses and structuring of the territory. This scale represents an institutional solidarity established over that portion of the national territory, marked by having a role in the territorial division of labor and by the administrative cohesion existing within its limits.
According to a survey prepared by SEAGRO (2018), the cultivation of grains provided the expansion of globalized modern agriculture in the Cerrado areas, a biome that occupies most of the territory of Tocantins, totaling a representative area of agricultural frontiers still expanding and leading the state to be considered as a new regional power for Brazilian agribusiness, the state of Tocantins presents new opportunities for the cultivation of commodities4 Commodity is an English term that means commodity (FREDERICO, 2013, p.98). In this understanding, this term refers to primary or semi-finished products, especially agricultural products, standardized on a global scale, with prices quoted and negotiated by commodity exchanges. This economic-financial creation emerged in the United States in the mid-nineteenth century. When talking about the agricultural commodity , this term has a strong geographical and political expression, increasing productive territorial specializations and weakening the local producer (FREDERICO, 2013). agricultural products, due to their geographic location and characteristics of their territory, considered strategic for the competitiveness of agricultural production aimed at exportation.
The development of agriculture is based on the sustainability of the environment with the expansion of its crops mainly in degraded areas of pastures, the State has the lowest rate of deforestation in the North region. In the last ten years, grain production has grown by more than 180% in the planted area and 240% in production, evidencing the technological advance in the properties.
Currently, Tocantins stands out mainly in the production of grains for export, highlighting, among other crops, the production of rice in different varieties, especially when it comes to the production in focus in the present work, rice. In absolute numbers, Conab's forecast made last month indicates a production of 636,200 tons in an area of 111,200 hectares, reaching an average productivity of 5,721 kg/ha in 2020/2021.
As mentioned in the introductory part, the production of Tocantins corresponds to the main responsible for supplying a good part of the internal consumption of the state in the production chain, in addition to the fraction of what is produced destined to agricultural industries of different genres. According to forecast by Conab (National Supply Company) in March 2021; a trend verified in many moments of the history of the productive chain in the state, thus forming a strong base for the consumer market and for the agro export, in addition to the supply of agribusinesses with the cereal as mentioned in the introductory part.
It is worth emphasizing that a good part of the technological and economic support allocated to rice production and the intense incentive to these producers provide promising scenarios for these activities, especially when considering the emergence of projects such as the Rice Improvement Program (Best Rice) operating in the state and enabling innovations still considering sustainable, productive and economically efficient progress, attracting even more new producers who feel more comfortable in starting new ventures. All these production support systems have become even more important in the most recent periods of the pandemic where, as has been shown, the entire impact on logistics and the internal and global economy destabilized from processes inside to outside and during the gate (EMBRAPA, 2021).
In the next chapters and subchapters, statistical data will be presented that reaffirm the impressive history of the state in its rice production and the main economic characteristics of its structure, also working with the product-consumer relationship by surveying prices and consumption, all based on the advent of consequences of the systemic instability caused by the health crisis in question.
2.4. Analysis of rice production, price and consumption in the state of Tocantins
As already mentioned, Tocantins remains in a statistically favorable position in terms of its production and development, something that, although it has kept it in a relatively privileged position, has not exempted the state from suffering from the aforementioned consequences. From the collection of data from foundations, public and private bodies and agricultural and geographic companies such as IBGE, Conab, Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade) and Embrapa Arroz e Feijão (GO), these statistics will be approached in order to establish the relationship between production, prices and consumption given in the history of the last decades in a comparison with the data of the recent moment in question.
2.4.1. Rice production
Among the productive range of the state, rice production stands out not only internally as seen in Table 1, but also as a constant in severe growth that is compared to other regions and productive poles where the edaphoclimatic conditions, ecosystems and the general history of the production are much more remote and, consequently, more technological than in the youngest federative unit in the country.
Table 1. Rice production - Brazil (1980 - 2020)
	Period
	Brazil
	North
	Tocantins
	Production
(t)
	Growth (%)
	Production
(t)
	Growth (%)
	Production (t)
	Growth (%)
	1980
	9,775,720
	-
	682,762
	-
	293,973
	-
	1990
	7,420,931
	-24.1
	605,747
	-11.3
	260,850
	-11.3
	2000
	11,134,588
	50.0
	1,070,821
	76.8
	391,827
	50.2
	2010
	11,046,662
	-0.8
	995,264
	-7.1
	442,394
	12.9
	2020
	11,091,011
	0.4
	993,612
	-0.2
	690,099
	56.0
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
Table 1 shows the constant growth of production in Tocantins, while the other limitations show successive declines or insignificant increases. Furthermore, considering the number of states in the geographic North of the country, itis important to mention how expressive rice production is in Tocantins for the region, comprising, for example, in 2010, more than half of the total production; hence, in 2020, the scenario intensifies, with state production emerging an even more significant portion. 
Graph 1 shows the total area in hectares dedicated to plantations of different crops in the state, revealing the evolution of agricultural production in Tocantins.
Graph 1. Total planted area (ha) - Tocantins (2000, 2010 and 2020)
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
As seen in Graph 1, the total planted area in the 2000s in the state was 290,097 hectares, increasing to 664,195 in 2010, an increase of 128.9%. Also, from 2010 to 2020, with 1,547,368 hectares, the increase was 132.9%, a progressive growth whose tendency is to be maintained over these periods, taking into account the continuity of projects to support producers and other circumstances.
As for production by cities, Figure 1 shows all rice producing cities in Tocantins, in 2020.
Figure 1. Rice production in cities – Tocantins (2020).
Source: Prepared by the authors based on IBGE data (2021).
This panorama presented is recurrent in the history of local production, as can be seen in Table 2, which presents the five municipalities with the highest rice production in the state, from 2000 to 2010.
Table 2. Rice production in Tocantins - Five largest producing municipalities (2020)
	County
	2000
	2010
	Confusion Lagoon
	60,324
	155,150
	Formoso do Araguaia
	120,825
	110,740
	Pium
	17,160
	9,720
	Dueré
	24,800
	19,350
	Santa Rita do Tocantins
	9,900
	2,400
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
According to Table 2, the expressiveness of Lagoa da Confusão and Formoso do Araguaia is remarkable, the latter being one of the largest municipalities in territorial extension in the state, having one of the most substantial irrigated rice projects in continuous area in the world, totaling 27,787 ha of land. Várzea consisting of hydromorphic and/or alluvial soils, in addition to all the climatic conditions to obtain a favorable productivity, having been one of the pioneer cities of rice production in Tocantins. Also, projects such as those of Seagro (Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Aquaculture of Tocantins) to promote processing plants through the platform of the Southwest Region Development Program (Prodoeste) whose implementation phase began in 2014, but which already covers billionaire investments in the entire irrigation structure not only in the municipality of Formoso, but also in the micro-region in question as a whole (SEAGRO, 2018).
In this way, the governmental incentive in the inauguration period of the enterprises was of great value and many cooperatives were installed in the city for investments in the cultivation of irrigated rice, corn, watermelon and soy. Lagoa da Confusão and Santa Rita do Tocantins are in similar situations, being the focus of similar public policies that allow the evolution and development of production and processing of different varieties of rice, also composing essential functions for the representativeness of state rice. Despite the municipalities of Pium and Dueré expressing a relatively significant production, both showed drops in their production that may be related, mainly, to climate issues (ARAGUAIA, 2018).
In Graph 2, this information is presented again, showing the development of the total planted to the detriment of the part dedicated to the cereal, between 1990 and 2020.
Graph 2. Comparison of planted area and area destined for rice production (ha) - Tocantins (1990 to 2020)
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
When looking at Graph 2, it is possible to observe that the expressive increase in the total planted area in the state and, on the other hand, the reduction of the area destined for rice production. In relative terms, in 1990, the area devoted to rice production in Tocantins corresponded to 57%, falling to 21% in 2010. In 2020, the percentage of area devoted to rice production reached a surprising 8%.
It is important to point out that the planted area in the state suffered a significant increase of approximately 133% between 2010 and 2020, while the area destined for rice production presented, in the same period, a decrease of 7%. For Fragoso et al (2013),
On the other hand, the productivity of rice cultivation in the state presented very important numbers, as can be seen in Table 03, in absolute and percentage values, its evolution between the years 2000, 2010 and 2020.
Table 3. Rice productivity (Area planted in hectares x area dedicated to rice) – Tocantins (2000 – 2020)
	Period
	Production (t)
	Planted area (ha)
	Productivity
	19805 In 1980, the state of Tocantins still belonged to the state of Goiás, in the Old North of Goiás. 
	293,973
	-
	-
	1990
	260,850
	209,560
	1.2
	2000
	391,827
	148,723
	2.6
	2010
	442,394
	137,946
	3.2
	2020
	690,099
	128,570
	5.4
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
According to Table 3, productivity showed a considerable increase over the years analyzed, from 1.2 in 1990 to 5.4 in 2020. Fragoso et al. (2013) explains that the reduction in the planted area, as well as the increase in production were factors that contributed to the productivity gains presented in the period. Also, according to the authors (FRAGOSO et. al.., 2013, pg. 02):
Research and technology transfer actions for the rice production chain in Tocantins played a crucial role in improving rice production systems and development in the state. The use of irrigated and upland rice cultivars recommended for planting in Tocantins also stands out as the main element for increasing productivity (FRAGOSO et. al., 2013, pg. 02).
The drop in the size of the area destined for rice cultivation can also be explained by the fact that the production of other crops has grown, a characteristic that can be seen, from a perspective, as something positive, since it shows the technological involvement for the application of other crops. cultures locally.
Thus, there are many forms of support for agricultural research, enabling the evolution of techniques and resources for rice production, among them it is worth mentioning the Technological Pole of Agricultural Research of Tocantins (TECNORTE) which is built by the Financier of Studies and Projects (FINEP) by through agreements with the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Tocantins (FAPT), establishing a partnership that enables resources to improve the research infrastructure at the Várzea Agro-Environmental Research Center (CPAV) in Formoso do Araguaia and the Agricultural Sciences Complex (CCA) located in the Centro Agrotecnológico de Palmas, developing technologies that meet the demands of research in highland (Cerrado) and lowland cultures in the southwest micro-region, thus benefiting producers from all municipalities in Tocantins, in addition to the focus on sustainable productivity. Such reality and constant presence of these facilitators describe a scenario that can be perceived in a similar way for the agricultural scenario of the state as seen in Graph 01 and Table 01, a severe trend of evolution and development (TOCANTINS, 2021).
Graph 3 shows an evolution in the last ten years of rice production in Tocantins, as well as the growth rate.
Graph 3. Comparison between rice production (t) and growth (%) of rice production - Tocantins (2010 to 2020)
Source: Prepared by the authors with data from IBGE (2020).
Within the period presented in Graph 3, it is possible to notice fluctuations in rice production in the state. Between 2010 and 2012, it is possible to visualize an abrupt drop in production in 2012, corresponding to 25.5%. This fact is mainly due to climatic changes in the periods, according to the IBGE census, due to the excessive rains responsible for delaying the sowing of the cereal, which also caused a decrease in the planted area in a trend that also extended toother regions as in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In the following harvest, 2012-2013, the state presented a 40% increase in its production, justified, according to the State Government, by weather conditions, increase in irrigated area, logistics and investments in inputs and management. In this period, Tocantins reached fourth place in national production, and cereal, second in state production, behind only soybean production (CONAB, 2016).
Currently, the state of Tocantins ranks third in national rice production. This result is a consequence of a series of factors, such as weather conditions, logistics developed by the government to improve the displacement of production, investments in science and technology, to improve the quality of the product. As for scientific investment, Embrapa highlights that:
Currently with seeds in about 90% of the planted rice area in Tocantins, the third largest national producer, Embrapa has been collaborating to increase this important production value chain in the state. The development, together with partner institutions, of specific cultivars for the region can be pointed out as one of the main effective contributions (EMBRAPA, 2021).
According to Conab, the forecast for the 2020-2021 crop for the state of Tocantins is that 670,000 tons of rice will be harvested, behind only Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with 7.6 million and 1.1 million tons of rice. tons, respectively. As noted in this topic, the newest state in the country has established itself as one of the largest rice producers, and the cereal has gained an expressive second place in state production, behind only soybean production.
Thus, partnerships with large institutions and private companies made irrigated rice in the state a highlight in both state and national production. The next topic will be the price of rice in the national market, as well as its evolution over the years analyzed.
2.5.2 Prices
Prices, from the Latin pretĭum, are the monetary representations that attribute value to quantities of products and services, being determined in the markets as an operational factor that establishes the exchanges and sales in these scenarios. The concept of prices is mainly linked to several conditions closely related to the circumstances in which the production chain responsible for generating the availability of products or services is included. In addition, it is necessary to discriminate the concept of the average annual price used in the article and which comes from the research and data collection sources presented here (ROSA, 2019).
The average annual price is more related to the purchase of the product from the primary sector, without any type of processing, whose value is later added to other industrialization techniques and to the logistics and storage processes linked to the cereal production chain between the secondary sectors. and tertiary market, thus being a reflection of how the value of the product is approached on supermarket shelves and offered directly to consumers (ROSA, 2019).
Before analyzing the variation in the price of rice, it is important to present, within the theoretical framework of consumer theory, the importance of market price formation for and its interaction with the quantity demanded and produced of goods and services. Thus, to understand rice price fluctuations over the years, a theoretical presentation on the interaction between demand and supply in price formation is necessary.
According to microeconomic theory, demand is defined as the amount of a certain good or service that the consumer is willing to purchase in a given period of time. Demand has an inverse relationship between the quantity demanded and the price of the product, that is, an increase in the market price of that good or service decreases, ceteris paribus 6 Ceteris paribus – expression used when analyzing only one variable, which separately affects consumer decisions. The variables that determine demand are: price of the good or service, income, price of other goods or services, consumer tastes and preferences (VASCONCELLOS, . , and vice versa. This inverse relationship is called the Law of Demand (VASCONCELLOS & GARCIA, 2008).
On the other hand, supply can be conceptualized as the various quantities that producers are willing to offer on the market in a given period of time. Like demand, quantity supplied is also affected by the market price, but its function shows a direct relationship, that is, an increase in the market price motivates the production of goods or services, increasing supply, and vice versa. The direct relationship between the quantity supplied and the price is called the Law of Supply (VASCONCELLOS & GARCIA, 2008).
Also, according to the authors, the interaction between demand and supply determines the price of quantity that balances the market, that is, price and quantity that simultaneously meet the expectations of the producer (supply) and of the consumer (demand). In this way, if the quantity supplied of goods or services is less than the quantity demanded, we will have a situation of scarcity of products. In this situation, there will be competition between consumers, since the quantity demanded (demand) is greater than the quantity supplied, thus, queuing and price increases tend to occur until equilibrium is reached. However, if the quantity supplied is greater than the quantity demanded, there will be a situation of excess production, that is, an unscheduled accumulation of stock, which will provoke competition between producers, leading to a fall in the market price until it reaches the balance (VASCONCELLOS & GARCIA, 2008).
That said, discussing the cereal's domestic market prices, as well as export, import and trade balance data, are essential to understand the priorities for marketing the product as a commodity or as a supplier to the country's homes, which also strongly relates to consumer trends. Thus, Graph 4. presents the average annual prices of a 60 kg bag of fine long husk rice in the state of Tocantins, as well as the growth rate in the last ten years.
 Price growth (%) 
 Average price (R$) 
Graph 4. Average price and annual growth of rice (60kg bag in husk, long thin) in Tocantins from 2011 to 2020
Source: Prepared by the authors based on IBGE data (2010 to 2020).
According to Graph 4, the average price of sacks of rice in Tocantins has suffered several fluctuations in the last ten years, remaining in decline in 2017 and 2018 in a scenario caused primarily by having been a period of harvest and constant negotiations of the cereal. , closing with expectations of greater availability of the corresponding crop; thus, there was a reduction in offers from industries and the wholesale and retail sectors of large centers began to request smaller replacements (ESALQ, 2018).
In the most recent history between 2019 and 2020, a very significant increase in the average price of the cereal can be seen, which had already been increasing between 2018 and 2019. This expressive increase is explained by the imbalance between supply and demand, where there was an excess situation of demand and supply could not keep up with this increase, consequently leading to an increase in the market price of the cereal. Several factors were responsible for this increase in demand, of which it is possible to highlight:
The health crisis that, as presented, according to the UN, climate change was already affecting the rice crop, and recently, after 100 years, the pandemic state was responsible for causing statistical deficits in the chain. With this new global context, the population is already in a context of a considerable increase trend, due to the stocks made in the face of the indication of scarcity, in addition to the interruptions in logistics due to the lockdown. Urgent purchases have led exporting countries to impose limits and bans on the export flow, while the maximum value limits imposed by some countries have led to a reduction in the volume of imports (UN, 2020,online).
In addition, the off-season period characterized by agricultural inactivity of economic interests that increases demand and causes negative instabilities in the marketing price of the product, a situation that could be perceived throughout 2020 as seen by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) from the University of São Paulo, which, in a survey carried out in September of the same year, pointed to a 120% increase in the last twelve benchmarks precisely in the portion of the year occupied by the cereal off-season in the region (CIDASC, 2016).
In addition, as will be discussed later, the dynamics of external and internal prices regarding the relationship between national and international markets established, as a result of the severe devaluation of the real against the dollar in 2020, an increase in external demand for products from the country. In this way, this period that causes strong instabilities, mainly among the most economically sensitive ills of the Brazilian population, becomes even more evident, since after many years in which the price fluctuated little, the discrepancy for the most recent reality in which the value that consumers will spend to consume the cereal and its derivatives is a strong highlight.
In view of the strong rise and the advent of the sanitary crisis in the year under discussion, the drop in consumption and changes in the allocation of agro-exports and imports are expected, as will be discussed in the next segment in which the indices of direct consumption of rice will be addressed taking into account the external and internal flow of production.
2.5.3 Consumption
Consumption is, in general, the total sum of goods and services purchased by consumers, that is, the one that mostly applies to direct short-term preparation, with economic activity generated through the purchase of these goods and/or services. There are several ways to account for consumption, either by tracking which quantities of what is produced are intended for, in this case, consumption in bulk or how many products that need their derivatives to be prepared and that are later marketed are purchased. Also, per capita consumption, as will be discussed in this work, is addressed by many bodies such as the IBGE and brings the average behavior of consumers considering all the inhabitants of a state, region or country in that period. In addition, it is extremely important to take into account the main characteristic of rice as an essential good for the basic food basket in Brazil and, nevertheless, for the people of Tocantins, being more linked to cultural consumption, but even if, because of this, it is a solid option in the food market, cereal is not exempt from suffering instabilities in the face of consumer behavior, as will be seen shortly thereafter (IBGE, 2020).
Therefore, when discussing consumption, the dynamics of the destination of productions and how they supply the country from imported batches or already prepared for domestic consumption, or even when, instead, they are declared for agro-export to other countries. However, for a better understanding of the fluctuations in the volume of imports and exports, it is necessary to bring some theoretical concepts about the international economy.
When two countries are economically related to each other, two currencies necessarily enter into the negotiation, requiring that the relationship between them be established. In this sense, the exchange rate is defined as the price of the foreign currency (currency) in relation to the national currency. In international negotiations, payments are made in the dominant currency in the market. As in the consumer theory, in the international economy there is also the interaction between demand and supply in the market, but of currencies (currencies). In this way, the demand for foreign exchange is constituted by importers, who need foreign currency to pay for their purchases abroad. The offer of foreign exchange is carried out by exporters, who receive in foreign currency for their sales (VASCONCELLOS and GARCIA, 2013).
As stated by the authors, a high exchange rate means that the price of foreign currency is high, or that the national currency is undervalued. In this way, the exchange devaluation indicates that there was an increase in the exchange rate, that is, a greater number of reais is needed to acquire foreign currencies. The opposite, we call exchange rate appreciation, occurs when the national currency is stronger in relation to the foreign currency. The authors explain that:
The exchange rate is closely related to the prices of exported and imported products and, consequently, to the country's trade balance. If the exchange rate is at high levels, it will stimulate exports, as exporters will start to receive more reais for the same amount of foreign exchange derived from exports; as a result, there will be a greater supply of foreign exchange (VASCONCELLOS E GARCIA, pg. 129).
Understanding how commercial relations are carried out, conceptually, is extremely important to understand price variations in the international market, as well as variations in products on the export and import list.
According to FIETO (2018), the export list of Tocantins is basically made up of agricultural products, with soybeans leading the state export ranking, followed by beef and corn. As for imports, industrialized products lead the number of imports, which reinforces the state's lack of domestic production of industrialized products.
Regarding rice exports, the state is still taking small steps, as can be seen in Table 04, where only in 2016, 2019 and 2021 the state included the cereal in its export list.
Table 4. Exports and trade balance of rice from Tocantins between Venezuela and Vietnam (2016, 2019 and 2021)
	Period
	Venezuela
	Vietnam
	exports
(kg)
	exports
(US$ FOB)
	exports
(kg)
	exports
(US$ FOB)
	2021
	749,700
	338,850.00
	-
	-
	2019
	1,019,760
	413,596.00
	-
	-
	2016
	249,300
	-
	24,000
	10,056.00
Source: prepared by the authors based on data from Secex (2021).
As seen in Table 04, the main destinations for rice exports from Tocantins are Venezuela, which, according to FIETO (2018), due to issues related to location (proximity and geographic ease), and Vietnam, which acquired rice Tocantins only in 2016.
It is worth mentioning that the reality of the constant appreciation of the Dollar in Brazil, which implies the devaluation of the Real and vice versa, is present, albeit with fluctuations, throughout the entire production chain in the analyzed periods, being an economic indicator that directly impacts the export data such as foreign and domestic prices. When the devaluation of the real occurs, the effects on the prices of export products increase in value in the national currency, which guarantees a greater purchase interest on the part of, especially, these countries, increasing the competitiveness of domestically produced goods abroad. According to the general exchange rate, in 2016 the dollar fluctuated, from January to December, between R$4.02 and R$3.10, a record mark for the decade that was mainly due to political and economic instability in Brazil (MERLADETE, 2020).
Table 5. Export and import of rice in tons - Brazil, North Region and Tocantins (2010 to 2020)
	
	BRAZIL
	NORTH REGION
	Year
	Export
	Import
	Export
	Import
	2010
	430 million
	-
	2.7 million
	-
	2011
	1.3 billion
	-
	9.9 million
	-
	2012
	1.1 billion
	-
	6 million
	-
	2013
	918 million
	-
	15.5 million
	-
	2014
	920 million
	-
	23.3 million
	-
	2015
	961 million
	-
	18.5 million
	-
	2016
	697 million
	-
	21.8 million
	-
	2017
	624 million
	-
	28.6 million
	-
	2018
	1.4 billion
	-
	22.7 million
	-
	2019
	1 billion
	-
	30.3 million
	-
	2020
	1, 4bi
	217.4 thousand
	33 million
	-
Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from IBGE and Secex (2020).
From the analysis of Table 05, it is possible to infer that, although the sudden drops between 2016 and 2017 were mainly due tothe need to allocate production for domestic supply, as reported in view of the social, political and economic context of this period, the trend of cereal exports is on a rising scale mainly in the severe increases from 2010 to 2011 and from 2017 to 2018, periods in which the agro-export market recovered from relative crises.
Then, in Table 6, the results of the trade balance (FOB 7 The balance of trade is the difference between exports and imports recorded in a country's balance of payments; "FOB" is the acronym for " Free on Board " and here it is defined as the indication of the values at shipping prices, that is, the price of the goods without freight, insurance, taxes and other fees, thus being the direct representation of the value of these international transactions (IPEA, 2006). ) in dollars (US$) show the trade balance for each period as shown in the previous table.
Table 6. Brazil trade balance of rice (FOB, US$) – North Region and Tocantins (2010 to 2020)
	
	BRAZIL
	NORTH REGION
	TOCANTINS
	Year
	Trade balance (U$$ mi)
	Trade balance (U$$ mi)
	Trade balance (U$$ mi)
	2010
	162.5 million
	1.6 million
	-
	2011
	611.7 million
	5.6 million
	-
	2012
	533.8 million
	3.5 million
	-
	2013
	400.6 million
	10 million
	-
	2014
	396.4 million
	14.6 million
	-
	2015
	350.1 million
	9.1 million
	-
	2016
	252 million
	15.6 million
	US$ 10 thousand
	2017
	244.5 million
	17.6 million
	-
	2018
	466.7 million
	11.8 million
	-
	2019
	368.4 million
	18 million
	US$ 413.6 thousand
	2020
	503.5 million
	16.7 million
	-
Source: prepared by the authors based on data from IBGE and Secex (2020).
Above all, when dealing with consumer behavior, it is essential to consider the variables that determine how this behavior will be in the short, medium and long term. One of these is purchasing power, which is defined as the ability of consumers to manage the total number of parts of their income or a group of them to pay for certain goods or services.
Also, purchasing power relates inflation to the current minimum wage, being an option to also establish the viability of consumption among the population of different regional scales of the country. Bearing in mind and considering the concept of per capita consumption already mentioned above, the data in the tables below come from calculations involving the general consumption ratio of rice in the year and the average population of the same, data from bodies such as Conab and IBGE, especially by the POF (Research of Family Budgets) which provides a convenient Census of how the household consumption of different products occurred over certain periods (IBGE, 2020).
Table 7. Average household consumption of rice (all varieties) per capita per year (kg/inhabitant/year) – Brazil, North Region and Tocantins (2000 to 2020)
	Year
	BRAZIL
	NORTH REGION
	TOCANTINS
	2000
	45.4
	32.7
	64.1
	2010
	27
	28.3
	56
	2020
	35.6
	50.6
	50.6
Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from Conab (2010), Embrapa Arroz e Feijão (2011) and the Government of Tocantins (2021).
Table 07 shows the downward trend in consumer behavior when opting for rice in their meals. Not only that, but as seen, the severe price fluctuations experienced, something that is seen mainly in the conjuncture of Tocantins and the North Region, which, according to the IBGE, has a tendency to concentrate a good part of what, in this way, turns out not to be because they are even more susceptible population parts to suffer exemptions in the consumption of the product.
The characteristics that the health crisis linked mainly to the recurrence of situations in which, in supermarkets that offered eventual promotions of stocks of basic foods such as rice, may have been one of the factors that influenced the increase in consumption by Brazil in general in 2020. In Table 8 this information is clarified taking into account the growth rates (MARCEL; BETIM, 2021).
Table 8. Average household consumption of rice (all varieties) per capita per year (kg/inhabitant/year) – Brazil, North Region and Tocantins (2000 to 2020)
	Year
	Brazil
	North Region
	Tocantins
	2000
	45,4
	32,7
	64,1
	2010
	27
	28,3
	56
	2020
	35,6
	50,6
	50,6
Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from Conab (2010), Embrapa Arroz e Feijão (2011) and the Government of Tocantins (2021).
Here, the sharp drop in consumption from 2000 to 2010 of 68.1%, also experienced similarly by the North Region with 15% and by Tocantins with 14.4%, brings to light a trend that returns in Tocantins, but this is not the case for the Brazil and the North Region, which, according to the 2019 IBGE report, presented economic growth that may have been responsible for helping to increase the purchasing power of its population and, therefore, a change in cereal consumption.
Considering the information reaffirmed by the positioning of statistical data over the last topics about the fence, it is possible to reinforce the trend that was perceived in the reality of the year 2020 for the relationship between production, prices and consumers for the Tocantins scenario: although rice produced in the state has a character mostly destined for domestic supply, the drops in its production, even if minimal, and all the circumstances of the health crisis were unanimous obstacles to establish a phenomenon for the rice production chain never seen before, which is reinforced by the sudden increases in prices and, consequently, by the drops in consumption of a product that is often considered as an irreplaceable main component of the Brazilian diet.
3. Conclusions
In view of the revised material to trace the history of agricultural production, agribusiness and, finally, rice production in the state of Tocantins and considering all the data collection made, one of the main conclusions to be verified is very related to the connection that the productive chain of this important cereal is interconnected and was extremely affected. Above all, considering that one of the starting points for the construction of this work was the perception of many Tocantins citizens when they were subjected to delicate financial choices to opt for rice consumption, the literary review made is able to clarify the main question made in the introduction of the work: the way in which the sanitary crisis operated on this important sector of national vegetable production.
Still, when observing the export and import trends of the product, it was possible to perceive the strong impact of the period on a conjuncture that for a long time proved to be strong and consolidated, occupying a substantial responsibility for the agricultural economy of one of the largest producers in the North of Brazil, that is, Tocantins, which has been performing excellently in the national and international scenarios regarding local agricultural production as a whole, despite being one of the most recent federative units in the country and still with social, cultural and political issues to be assimilated to the throughout its territory. 
Finally, this work ends by emphasizing the strong presence of the aforementioned processing projects as instruments and platforms of strong support for production and, consequently, for all elements of the state cereal production chain, especially considering the mechanisms to encourage research. in public and private educational institutions in the state, which, directly or indirectly, were one of the main factors that enacted the construction of the work, in addition to the support programs promoted by the municipal, state and federal governments of the different regions.
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