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Nutrition Science$Policy Effects of product reformulation on sugar intake and health—a systematic review and meta-analysis Kawther M. Hashem, Feng J. He, and Graham A. MacGregor Context: Obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dental caries are all major public health problems in the United Kingdom and contribute substantially to healthcare costs. Objective: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine the effect of product reformulation measures on sugar intake and health outcomes. Data sources: Using a combination of terms, the following databases were searched—The Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE (Ovid), and Scopus. Additionally, multiple gray literature searches were undertaken. Data extraction: A total of 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 4 randomized controlled trials, 6 studies that modeled reformulation in a country, 5 studies that modeled a different approach of reformulation, and 1 study was both a modelling study of a different approach to reformulation and a retrospective observational study. The stud- ies were assessed for risk of bias and overall quality of evidence was rated using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group (GRADE) framework. Results: Results from randomized controlled trials suggest that consumption of reformulated products can reduce sugar intake and body weight. The pooled estimates were �11.18% (95% confidence interval [CI], �19.95 to �2.41; P < 0.00001) for changes in percentage of sugar intake, �91.00 g/day (95%CI, �148.72 to �33.28; P< 0.00001) for changes in sugar in- take in grams per day, and �1.04 kg (95%CI, �2.16 to �0.08; P¼ 0.0002) for changes in body weight. However, the quality of the evidence was very low. Results from the other studies suggested that reformulation can reduce sugar intake and im- prove health. Much of the evidence draws on modeling studies. Conclusions: This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that product reformulation to reduce sugar content could reduce sugar intake in individuals and thus improve popula- tion health. These findings provide an important starting point for ongoing work on sugar reformulation. INTRODUCTION Obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dental caries are all major public health problems in the United Kingdom1–7 and contribute substantially to healthcare costs.8 It is recognized that consumption of excessive free sugars (“sugar”) is associated with these conditions.9–14 In July 2015, the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) recommended that the average in- take of sugar across the UK population should not Affiliation: K.M. Hashem, F.J. He, and G.A. MacGregor are with the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, United Kingdom. Correspondence: K.M. Hashem, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London, EC1M 6BQ, UK. E-mail: k.hashem@qmul.ac.uk. Key words: reformulation, systematic review, sugar. VC The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Life Sciences Institute. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. doi: 10.1093/nutrit/nuy015 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 181 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 exceed 5% of total energy intake.10 This is in line with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) new guide- lines on sugar intake.15,16 As of 2014, average intakes of sugar in the United Kingdom exceeded recommenda- tions in all age groups.17 Children have a 3-fold higher intake of sugar than that recommended; the average in- take was 54 g (13% of total energy) and 73 g (15%) per day in those aged 4–10 years and those aged 11– 18 years, respectively.17 A number of population-level interventions have been proposed, including pricing interventions, food procurement interventions, restrictions on marketing to children, on-pack nutrition information, information campaigns, and product reformulation.18 These inter- ventions can potentially reduce population sugar intake, however, in recent years product reformulation has gained prominence as a potential cost-effective inter- vention, particularly in the United Kingdom.8,19 Product reformulation in whole jurisdictions (eg, countries) are efforts to lower the “unhealthy” compo- nents (eg, saturated fat, trans fats, sugar, salt) of products at the time of production without worsening the profile of other ingredients (eg, increasing calorie content).20 The reformulated products should replace existing prod- uct (eg, the same brand of drink with less sugar). This approach does not rely on substantial behavioral change on the consumer’s part. Reformulation has been proven to be effective at reducing salt intake in the United Kingdom. The key to the success of the UK salt reduction program has been the setting of incremental targets for each food group with a specified timeframe to complete reformulation, using maximum and average or sales-weighted average targets.21 Because the reduction in salt has been gradual and progressive, the UK population has adjusted to the taste of lower salt concentrations, without adding salt at the table.22 The average salt intake for adults fell from 9.5 g in 2000–2001 to 8.1 g in 2011; this was accompa- nied by a fall in population blood pressure and mortal- ity from stroke and coronary heart disease.23,24 Given the progress made with the salt reduction program in the United Kingdom, it has been proposed that sugar consumption can be reduced through a simi- lar systematic, unobtrusive, and gradual reformulation program for manufacturers,19 particularly because most of the sugar in the diet comes from manufactured prod- ucts, with the food and drink industry representing an important leverage point for reformulation. Because sugar reformulation is a relatively new area that has undergone a recent surge in research, it was deemed necessary and most appropriate to collate all of the evidence available using a systematic methodology to demonstrate the state of the evidence as well as the gaps that can be addressed by researchers and policy makers. Therefore, the aim of this study was to system- atically review the evidence on the effect of product reformulation measures to reduce sugar intake and im- prove health outcomes. METHODS The study design adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols (PRISMA) 2015 statement.25 The protocol has been previously published.26 The guiding question of this review was, “What is the effect of reformulation on sugar intake and health?” Inclusion and exclusion criteria The criteria for study eligibility in this review, including population, intervention, comparison, outcome, type of study, and setting (PICOTS) elements, are described in Table 1. Studies published between 1990 and early 2016 were included. This is because publications about reformu- lation, particularly salt reformulation, began to appear in the literature in the early 2000s; therefore, starting the search from 1990 guaranteed the capture of any papers published before 2000. Studies were excluded if they were non-English language studies, had no relevant outcome measures, or involved interventions with short durations (< 8 wk). Search strategy Electronic databases were systematically searched using a combination of terms tailored to each database. An initial limited search of EMBASE was under- taken; this was followed by an analysis of the text words contained in the titles and abstracts. A second search using all identified keywords and index terms was un- dertaken across all included databases. The databases searched included the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE (Ovid), and Scopus. Thereference lists of key articles that matched inclusion criteria were searched by hand to identify any further relevant refer- ences, which were subject to the same screening and se- lection process. Gray literature searches were also undertaken using the broad search terms “sugar” and “food” or “drink” and “reduction” or “reformulation.” These searches in- cluded key government and organization websites, as well as general searches in Google. Screening and data extraction All papers identified from the initial electronic search process were imported into an Endnote library, and 182 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 duplicates were removed. The eligibility criteria were applied to the results, and all identified references were screened using a 2-stage approach. The first stage in- volved 2 reviewers independently reviewing the title and the abstract. In the second stage, the full-text ver- sions of the shortlisted papers were extracted and assessed by the lead author. The number of excluded studies (including reasons for exclusion) was recorded at each stage. A standardized data extraction form was developed and piloted prior to its use. Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials For each trial, the mean effect on sugar intake and body weight was calculated. For crossover trials, the mean ef- fect was the difference in outcomes between the end of the reduced sugar period and the end of the sugar (ie, control) period. For parallel trials, the mean effect was the difference between the 2 groups in the change in outcomes from baseline to the end of follow-up. The variance of the mean effect for outcomes in each trial was calculated. This was derived from stan- dard deviations of paired differences between baseline and the end of follow-up for each group in a parallel trial or between the 2 diet periods in a crossover trial. To assess the mean effect sizes, the data were pooled using the inverse variance method in a random-effects meta-analysis. The I2 test was used to examine heterogene- ity, with I2> 50% considered to be important.27 Assessment of risk of bias in included studies For randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the Cochrane risk of bias tool28 was used. Tools for assessing risk of bias in RCTs are well de- scribed, but much less attention has been given to simi- lar tools for observational studies.29 A risk-of-bias tool adapted for nonrandomized controlled studies on population-level interventions, which has been used by 2 recently published Cochrane systematic reviews on population-level interventions,18,30 was chosen. It was deemed the most appropriate tool because it was adapted from the gold-standard Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. Some of the studies included in the systematic re- view were modeling studies. These studies are based on many assumptions; therefore, an adapted Cochrane risk of bias was not appropriate. Hence, only the strengths and limitations of those studies were discussed. Assessment of quality of evidence The overall quality of evidence was rated using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group (GRADE) frame- work,31 which is Cochrane’s recommended approach for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations. When using GRADE, evidence is rated not by study but across studies for specific out- comes. It is based on 5 considerations: risk of bias, im- precision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias. There are four possible GRADE ratings: high, moderate, low, and very low.32 Randomized controlled trials studies start at a GRADE rating of high, which may be decreased. The grade may be decreased by 1 or (if very serious) 2 levels in the following circumstances: serious or very serious limitations to study quality; important inconsistency; some or major uncertainty about directness; imprecise or sparse data; or high probability of reporting bias.31 Observational studies start at a GRADE rating of low, which may be increased or decreased. The grade may be increased in the following circumstances: strong evidence of association based on consistent evidence from > 2 or more observational studies with no plausi- ble confounders (þ1); very strong evidence of associa- tion based on direct evidence with no major threats to validity (þ2); evidence of a dose-response gradient (þ1); or all plausible confounders with reduced effect (þ1).31 GRADE rating was not applied to modeling stud- ies, but the outcomes assessed by the modeling studies were added in a narrative form to the summary of find- ings table. RESULTS A total of 16 studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 4 RCTs, 6 studies that modeled reformulation in a country, 5 studies that modeled a different approach of reformulation, and 1 study both modeled a different ap- proach to reformulation and was also a retrospective observational study (Figure 1). Table 1 PICOS criteria for the inclusion and exclusion of studies Parameter Criteria Population Studies involving populations of any age Intervention Interventions and studies investigating the ef- fect of product reformulation measures on sugar intake and health outcomes Comparison Control/sugar group, unexposed population, or preintervention group without reformu- lated products and intervention group/pop- ulation with reformulated products Outcome Sugar intake and health outcomes (eg, body weight, dental health, and type 2 diabetes) Type of study Both quantitative and qualitative study types Setting Any setting—randomized trials (� 8 wk dura- tion) or population-based models Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 183 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 The results are summarized in Table 2.33–48 As re- quired by the GRADE method, the evidence was graded as very low for the RCTs due to the lack of blinding, in- consistency, indirectness, and imprecision (as a result of low participants in pooled RCTs). For the 1 observa- tional study, the grade was kept as low because there was only 1 observational study and the effect was small. The outcomes assessed with modeling studies were not graded. Randomized controlled trials Four RCT publications assessed the effect of sugar- reformulated products over a period of 8–10 weeks (Table 3).33–36 Two of the publications were based on the same trial. Of the 3 trials, 2 used paralleled compari- sons,34–36 and 1 used crossover design.33 Figures 2–433–36 show the change in sugar intake (%), sugar intake (g/d) and body weight in individual trials included in the meta-analysis and the mean effect size. The pooled estimates of reduction were �11.18% (95% confidence interval [CI], �19.95 to �2.41, P < 0.00001) in percentage of sugar intake, �91.00 g/day (95%CI, �148.72 to �33.28; P < 0.00001) in sugar intake in grams per day, and �1.04 kg (95%CI, �2.16 to �0.08; P ¼ 0.002) in body weight. Modeling of reformulation Six modeling studies assessed the impact of reducing sugar intake through reformulation on either popula- tion sugar intake38–41 (Figure 5)38–41,43–48 and/or health outcomes37,38,42 (Table 2). The studies focused on 2 countries: the United Kingdom37–39 and France.40–42 Three studies were based on the UK (England) population (Table 437–39 and Figure 5). All of the stud- ies assumed a reduction in sugar intake and/or an im- provement in health outcomes. Three studies were based on the French population (Table 540–42 and Figure 5). Two studies assessed the impact on sugar intake,40,41 and 1 assessed the impact on both intake and health outcomes.42 Different reformulation approaches The search retrieved several different approaches to reformulation. The different approaches are described as 1) cap and trade (1 simulation), 2) Choices program Id en�fi ca �o n Sc re en in g El ig ib ili ty In clu de d Records iden�fied through databases searching (n = 5009) Addi�onal records iden�fied through other sources (n = 95 ) Records a�er duplicates removed (n = 4279 ) Records screened (n = 4279 ) Records excluded: �tles and abstracts not relevant (n = 4104 ) Full-text ar�cles assessed for eligibility (n = 175 ) Studies included in qualita�ve synthesis (n = 16) Full-text ar�cles excluded: no relevant data available (n = 159) Studies included in meta-analysis (n = 3) Figure 1 PRISMA flow diagram used for the selection of studies. 184 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 Table 2 Summary of findings Effects of product reformulation on sugar intake and health outcomes Patient or population: people of all ages Setting: any setting—randomized trials (� 8 wk duration) or population-based observational or models Intervention: sugar-reformulation Comparison: change in sugar intake or health outcomes from pre- to post-reformulation Outcomes Effect (mean) No. of participants (studies) Quality of the evidence (GRADE)a Sugar, % Change in sugar intake (%): �11.18 (95%CI, �19.95 to �2.41) 123 (3 RCTs) ���� Very lowb,c,d,e Sugar intake, g/d Change in sugar intake (g): �91.00 (95%CI, �148.72 to �33.28) 91 (2 RCTs) ���� Very lowb,c,d,e One observational study found that during a 7-y period (2005–2012) sugar intake fell by 2.06% (reduction in mean intake of 0.25 g) in adult consumers of reformulated products In teenagers, the reduction was 1.36% (�0.36 g) in consumers of reformulated products In children, the reduction was 1.21% (�0.32 g) in consumers of reformulated products In preschoolers, the reduction was 1.07% (�0.10 g) in consumers of reformulated products Eight modeling studies suggested a reduc- tion in sugar intake, which ranged from 0.2 to 62.1 g/d (1 observational and 8 modeling studies) ���� Low — Body weight, kg Change in weight (kg): �1.04 (95%CI, �2.16 to �0.08) 123 (3 RCTs) ���� Very lowb,c,d,e Overweight and obesity One modeling study found reformulation of soft drinks reduces overweight by 1.0% (from 35.5% to 34.5%; 0.5 million adults) and obesity by 2.1% points (from 27.8% to 25.7%; 1 million adults). The same model- ling study found if fruit juices were ex- cluded, the reduction will be lower, overweight will be reduced by 0.7% (0.3 million) and obesity by 1.7% (0.8 million) Another study found that reformulation through a cap-and-trade intervention would reduce obesity by 1.7% (95%CI, 0.9– 2.4) over 20 y Under the “optimistic” scenario simulated, in which consumers continued consuming their preferred product after its reformula- tion (rather than switching to another product with the nearest sugar content), obesity was reduced by 3.2% (95%CI, 2.4– 4.0) (2 modeling studies) — Glycemia and insulinemia Sugar group resulted in significant increases of postprandial glycemia and insulinemia compared to reformulated group 23 (1 RCT) ���� Very lowb,c,d,e Type 2 diabetes One modeling study found that reformula- tion of soft drinks could prevent about 274 000–309 000 cases of obesity-related type 2 diabetes over the 2 decades after the predicted reduction in bodyweight is achieved. The same modelling study found, if fruit juices were excluded, 221 000–250 000 cases will be prevented (2 modeling studies) — (continued) Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 185 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 (4 simulations), and 3) industry-led reformulation (1 that was both a simulation and observational). The modeling studies that reported reduction in sugar in- take in grams are illustrated in Figure 5. Cap and trade. Basu and Lewis43 suggested a cap-and- trade approach to reformulation. They provided initial permits to all manufacturers (year 2015) at no cost. The permits to each manufacturer equalled the mean base- line sugar emissions level. They then gradually lowered the cap in each subsequent year; they simulated a 20% reduction over 20 years (at a rate of 1% annually from the starting level). In the less optimistic scenario, Basu and Lewis,43 estimated that calorie intake may fall by 31 kcal/person/ day (95%CI, 29–33) at the 20-year mark, which would equate to 7.8 g of sugar. In a sensitivity analysis, where manufacturers passed on the cost of sugar emissions permits to consumers rather than absorbing the costs themselves, calorie intake may fall by 36 kcal/person/ day (95%CI, 33–39), which would equate to 9 g of sugar. The greater decline resulted from consumers switching Table 2 Continued Effects of product reformulation on sugar intake and health outcomes Patient or population: people of all ages Setting: any setting—randomized trials (� 8 wk duration) or population-based observational or models Intervention: sugar-reformulation Comparison: change in sugar intake or health outcomes from pre- to post-reformulation Outcomes Effect (mean) No. of participants (studies) Quality of the evidence (GRADE)a Another study found that reformulation through a cap-and-trade intervention could reduce type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases/100 000 people (95%CI, 12.9–30.6) over 20 y Under the “optimistic” scenario simulated, in which consumers continued consuming their preferred product after its reformula- tion, type 2 diabetes could be reduced by 37.7/100 000 people (95%CI, 22.4–53.1) Dental caries One modeling study found a 20% reduction in sugar intake from possible reformula- tion, which increased the proportion of 5- y-olds with no obvious decay by 7%, in- creased caries-free 15-y-olds by 6%, re- duced mean dmft/DMFT by 13% among 5-y-olds and 16% among 15-y-olds. The study also modeled a 40% reduction in sugar intake and suggested reformulation as an approach. It found that no dmft/ DMFT increased by 15% for 5-y-olds and 13% for 15-y-olds and mean dmft/DMFT values decreased by 24% for 5-y-olds and 29% for 15-y-olds (1 modeling study) — Deaths averted One modeling study found a reduction in sugar through reformulation would result in 746 deaths per year being averted in the French population (1 modeling study) — Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; DMFT, decayed, missing, or filled teeth. aGRADE Working Group grades of evidence: High quality: Very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect. Moderate quality: Moderately confident in the effect estimate The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different. Low quality: Confidence in the effect estimate is limited. The true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect. Very low quality: Very little confidence in the effect estimate. The true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect. bOverall risk of bias in the randomized controlled trials was high due to lack of effective blinding. cThere was serious concern over the heterogeneity of the randomized controlled trials because the v2 P value was significant and the I2 > 50%. dRandomized controlled trials are not an entirely suitable assessment of a whole population reformulation intervention because the duration of trials were short. eThe number of participants was low. 186 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 to lower-sugar alternatives when high-sugar products became more expensive. This approach was estimated to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95%CI, 0.9–2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the inci- dence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases/100 000 people (95%CI, 12.9–30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years. Racial/ethnic minorities may experience the largestdeclines in obesity prevalence and type 2 diabetes inci- dence. Under the “optimistic” scenario simulated, in which consumers continued consuming their preferred Table 3 Summary of the randomized controlled trials included in the systematic review References Study type (size), population (age), duration (wk), and BMI Comparator Outcome measurement Gatenby et al. (1997)33 RCT (49 [13 control, 17 fat-reformu- lated, 19 sugar-reformulated]) Adults (18–50 y) 10 wk BMI Control (24.5 6 3.3 kg/m2) Fat reformulated (22.7 6 3.1 kg/m2) Sugar reformulated group (22.4 6 2.9 kg/m2) 1. Control: maintain usual diet 2. Fat reformulated: used re- duced-fat products ad libi- tum in place of habitually consumed products with tra- ditional composition 3. Sugar reformulated: used re- duced-sugar products ad libi- tum in place of habitually consumed products with tra- ditional composition 1. 4 d weighed food diaries 2. Anthropometry Raben et al. (2002)34 RCT (41 [21 sugar group and 20 reformulated group]) Adults (20–50 y [mean 33 y in sugar, 37 y in reformulated group]) 10 wk BMI Sugar (28.0 6 0.5 kg/m2) Reformulated (27.6 6 0.5 kg/m2) 1. Sugar group: received prod- ucts containing sugar (�70% from drinks and �30% from foods to reach a sugar intake of �2 g/kg body weight; foods/drinks included soft drinks, fruit juices, yogurt, ice cream) 2. Reformulated group: re- ceived similar products con- taining reformulated products (noncaloric sweet- eners) in similar amounts to sugar group 1. 7 d dietary records for en- ergy and nutrient intakes 2. 7 d diaries for monitoring hunger, fullness, and palat- ability of the products 3. Anthropometry 4. 24 hour urine collection 5. Diurnal appetite scores Raben et al. (2011)35 RCT (23 [12 sugar-group and 11 reformulated group]) Adults (20–50 y [mean 35.3 y in sugar group, 35.5 y in reformu- lated group]) 10 wk BMI Sugar (28.7 6 0.7 kg/m2) Reformulated (27.6 6 0.8 kg/m2) 1. Sugar group: received prod- ucts containing sugar (�70% from drinks and �30% from foods to reach a sugar intake of �2 g/kg body weight; foods/drinks included soft drinks, fruit juices, yogurt, ice cream) 2. Reformulated group: re- ceived similar products con- taining reformulated products (noncaloric sweet- eners) in similar amounts to sugar group 1. 7 d dietary records for en- ergy and nutrient intakes 2. 7 d diaries for monitoring hunger, fullness, and palat- ability of the products 3. Anthropometry 4. Blood pressure 5. Blood sampling and bio- chemical analysis Markey et al. (2015)36 RCT, double-blind, crossover (50) Adults (mean, 31.6 y) 8 wk BMI (24.0 6 3.3 kg/m2) 1. Regular sugar-containing products 2. Sugar-reduced products (reformulated) Participants were provided with a choice of 7 drinks, including juice drinks and soft drinks, and 19 foods, including pasta sauce, baked beans, muesli, puddings, and sweet confectionary products 1. 4 d weighed food diaries 2. A visual analogue scale questionnaire assessed the products’ visual appeal, smell, taste, aftertaste, and palatability 3. 7 d monitor of physical activity 4. Anthropometry 5. Blood pressure and arterial stiffness 6. Blood sampling and bio- chemical analysis Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; RCT, randomized controlled trial. Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 187 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 product after its reformulation (rather than switching to another product with the nearest sugar content when their preferred product was reformulated), obe- sity prevalence could be reduced by 3.2 percentage points (95%CI, 2.4–4.0), and type 2 diabetes incidence could be reduced by 37.7/100 000 people (95%CI, 22.4–53.1). Choices program. The Choices program’s 2 main aims were to encourage the food and drink industry to reformulate and/or develop new healthier products and to help consumers make healthier choices by rec- ognizing the Choices logo.49 The criteria were devel- oped and set for the Dutch market by an independent scientific committee advising the Choices Foundation Board.50 Manufacturers used the Choices logo if their products met the Choices crite- ria and were approved. The committee periodically evaluates the product criteria so as to keep up-to-date with the latest scientific and reformulation develop- ments. After each review, a transition period is given during which manufacturers can reformulate to align their products with the new criteria and continue to use the logo.49 Four studies modeled the potential impact of the Choices program on the Dutch populations’ sugar in- take, among other nutrients (Table 6).44–47 One of the studies also modeled the potential impact of the Choices program on diets in Greece, Spain, the United States, Israel, China, and South Africa.46 None of them evaluated the potential impact of nutrient intake changes on health outcomes. All of the studies showed the Choices program could encourage reformulation and reduce sugar intake from current levels. Figure 5 shows the reduction in sugar intake in the models that reported sugar intake in grams per day. Industry-led reformulation. Another approach to refor- mulation is industry-led reformulation. Only 1 study evaluated the effect of industry-led sugar-reformulation.48 The Food and Drink Industry Ireland (FDII) evaluated the effect of industry-led reformulation between 2005 and 2012 on the Irish population by 1) calculating the Figure 2 Change in sugar intake percentage (%). Figure 3 Change in sugar intake (g/d). Figure 4 Change in weight (kg). 188 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 levels of sugar sold via reformulated products pre- and post-reformulation and 2) calculating daily sugar intakes of Irish subpopulations at pre- and post- reformulation. The nutrient composition levels for sugar, as well as energy, total fat, saturated fat, and/or sodium, were submitted for nearly 600 products from the 14 FDII members. This analysis generated 2 scenarios estimating the impact of reformulation on the 4 subpopulations. Scenario A assumes all companies across the food and drink sector with similar products reformulated in a similar way to the 14 FDII member companies in- volved (optimistic); this was the modeling part of the study. Scenario B assumes only the 14 FDII members conducted their reported reformulation, thereby esti- mating the minimum impact of reformulation in Ireland (conservative); this was the observational part of the study. The results showed that during the 7 years (2005– 2012) covered by the research, sugar content fell by Tedstone et al (2015) (Adults 19-64 years) Ma et al (2016) (sugar-sweetened drinks) France United Kingdom Ba�s� et al (2013) (Adults) Combris et al (2011) (Children – Breakfast cereals)* Cap and trade Basu et al (2014) Basu et al (2014) (with price increase) Choices program Temme et al (2010) Roodenburg et al (2011) (Netherlands) Roodenburg et al (2011) (Greece) Roodenburg et al (2011) (USA) Roodenburg et al (2011) (Israel) Roodenburg et al (2011) (South Africa) Industry-led Roodenburg et al (2011) (Spain) FDII (2016) (Adults) Study, year Tedstone et al (2015) (Children 4-10 years) Tedstone et al (2015) (Children 11-18 years) FDII (2016) (Teenagers 13-17 years) FDII (2016) (Children 5-12 years) FDII (2016) (Preschoolers 1-4 years) Combris et al (2011) (Children – Biscuits/pastries)* Combris et al (2011) (Adults – Bread-based products)* Ma et al (2016) (sugar-sweetened drinks, ex. juices) Roodenburg et al (2013) - (Netherlands - Adults 19-30 y)* 26.0 9.6 0.4 1.4 9.0 7.8 50.1 58.9 38.1 62.1 17.0 2.9 36.1 1.0 Mean/Median (g) 19.0 17.0 2.0 3.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 40.7 7.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 0 10 2030 40 50 60 Sugar reduc�on (g/day) Tedstone et al (2015) (Adults 65 years +) 14.0 Figure 5 Sugar reduction (g/d) in modeling studies. Different modelling approaches were included; therefore, the uncertainty measures are not comparable and are not plotted on the graph. *Scenario 3/optimistic scenario. Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 189 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 14%. In individuals who consumed reformulated prod- ucts, the mean daily sugar intake was reduced by 2.06% (observed) to 7.70% (modeled) in adults, 1.36% (ob- served) to 7.44% (modeled) in teenagers, 1.21% (ob- served) to 13.56% (modeled) in children, and 1.07% (observed) to 9.84% (modeled) in preschoolers. Table 1 shows the modelled reduction in sugar (g) intake in the Irish population’s daily total diet. Risk of bias of included studies The overall risk of bias in the RCTs was high due to in- effective blinding. However, insufficient information was provided to show whether there was sufficient al- location concealment in the trials. (Table S1 in the Supporting Information online). Observational studies The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool adapted for nonrandom- ized controlled studies on population-level interventions showed the overall risk of bias was high for the single study48 in this systematic review that included a retro- spective observational study component (Tables S2 and S3 in the Supporting Information online). DISCUSSION This review assessed the impact of reformulation on sugar intake and health outcomes. Although the num- ber of studies was limited and the types of studies and the types of interventions are extensively heterogeneous, there is some indication that sugar reformulation can reduce sugar intake and hence improve health out- comes. Because the types of studies and the types of interventions were heterogeneous, the groups of studies are each discussed separately. Randomized controlled trials Meta-analysis of RCTs showed sugar intake and body weight were reduced after reformulation. However, there was extensive heterogeneity among the trials and a number of factors may have contributed to the results. Sugar and energy intake. The amount of energy and sugar consumed in the sugar (or control) groups versus the sugar-reformulated groups in the trials varied. The 2 trials that showed no effect on health outcomes (weight) had a lower net difference in energy intake by the end of trial compared with the 2 trials that had an effect on energy intake and, therefore, health outcomes. In the Markey et al.36 and Gatenby et al.33 trials, the net differences between the 2 groups were 181 kcal/day and 52 kcal/day, respectively, whereas in the trial conducted by Raben et al.,34 the net differences between the 2 groups was 492 kcal/day. Administration. The way the products were adminis- tered to the participants was very different across trials. This may have affected the potential impact on the par- ticipants. In the Markey et al.36 trial, participants were provided with sufficient study products from a choice of 7 drinks and 19 foods. The participants were also asked to replace habitually used sugar and condiments with those provided by the investigators ad libitum throughout the study periods. Similarly, in the trial by Raben et al.34,35 the participants received products con- taining sugar and similar reformulated products con- taining noncaloric sweeteners (in similar amounts to sugar group). In contrast, in the trial by Gatenby et al.,33 the participants were told to seek commercially available reformulated products and record what they consumed. The participants knew very well they were consuming reduced-sugar reformulated products over their regular products. The difference in the way the products were administered to participants may have led to differences in energy compensatory behaviors. Other differences in the trials, such as blinding, and underreporting in outcome measures (eg, sugar intake), may have influenced the outcomes. Although there were attempts in 2 trials34,36 to blind participants to whether they were on a sugar/control product diet versus a refor- mulated product diet, the blinding may have been inef- fective. In the Markey et al.36 study, 83% of the participants correctly identified the sugar products and the reformulated products. Moreover, in the Raben et al.34,35 trial, the partici- pants were told that they received products containing Table 4 Methods used in modeling studies of the impact of sugar reformulation on the UK population References Method Bedi et al. (2005)37 Modeled the effect of a 20% re- duction in sugar intake and suggested reformulation as approach Modeled the effect of a 40% re- duction in sugar intake and suggested reformulation as approach Tedstone et al. (2015)39 Modeled 50% reformulation in all of the main contributors of sugar intake Ma et al. (2016)38 Modeled 40% reformulation in soft drinks Modeled 40% reformulation in soft drinks (excluding fruit juice) 190 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nutrit/nuy015#supplementary-data https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nutrit/nuy015#supplementary-data https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nutrit/nuy015#supplementary-data https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nutrit/nuy015#supplementary-data https://academic.oup.com/nutritionreviews/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/nutrit/nuy015#supplementary-data noncaloric sweeteners. At the end of the study, partici- pants in the reformulated group believed this, but par- ticipants in the sugar group guessed to some extent the true content of their products. This could have influ- enced the participant’s eating behavior so that partici- pants in the sugar group would have eaten less of their own products and participants in the reformulated group would have eaten more of their own products. Therefore, the net difference in calorie intake between sugar and reformulated groups may have been smaller than intended. All of the trials relied on food diaries as a key out- come measure because there is no biomarker to assess sugar intake. Participants tend to underestimate and underreport their intake of high fat, salt, and sugar products; therefore, the reported intakes may have underestimated the real sugar intake and ultimately the total energy intake.51–54 This outcome measure is also known to place a burden on participants, and indeed there was evidence of reduced reporting toward the end of the Gatenby et al.33 trial. Further to the concerns above, GRADE allowed for the assessment of the RCTs’ quality of evidence. Due to the lack of blinding and allocation, inconsistency, and imprecision (as a result of low participants in pooled RCTs), the quality of evidence was very low. In summary, a limited number of RCTs addressed the use of reformulation to reduce sugar intake and as- sess the impact on health outcomes. The mean effect suggests reformulation has an impact on sugar intake and body weight. However, long-term RCTs on dietary manipulation and impact on health outcomes may not be practical to perform due to expense, adherence, and legality. Table 5 Modeling studies of sugar reformulation on the French population References Method Consumption levels Health outcomes Battisti et al. (2013)40 Modeled the impact of a refor- mulation intervention—the French Nutrition and Health Programme’s commitments (PNNS 2)—on nutrient in- take, including sugar intake Sugar consumption decreased by 0.4 g (0.4%) in both sexes For men, the decrease in sugar intakes was mainly due to refor- mulations of dairy products and soft drinks For men, 1.6% of the objectiveset for sugars (25% decrease of added sugars consumption) was achieved Combris et al. (2011)41 Modeled different food refor- mulation scenarios for breakfast cereals, biscuits and pastries, and bread- based products to assess im- pact on population intake of sugar, fat, and salt In breakfast cereals scenarios 1, 2, and 3, the amount of sugars supplied to the market would be reduced by 993–3830 tons. At the individual intake level for the average child consumer of breakfast cereals, this represents a 2.6%–9.1% decrease in the in- take of sugars provided by these products. The daily intake of sugars provided by breakfast cereals decreased by 0.4–1.4 g Biscuits and pastries scenarios 1, 2, and 3 decreased the amount of sugars supplied to the market by 1111–8888 tons. In the average child consumer of biscuits and pastries, this change represents a decrease in sugar intake by 0.5%–4.2%. In the children, the 3 scenarios decrease the daily intake of sugar by 0.03–0.22 g For adults who are high consum- ers of bread-based products, the simulation led to a 0.13–0.63 g decrease in the daily intake of sugar Leroy et al. (2015)42 Modeled reformulation scenar- ios on sugar intake and health outcomes The number of deaths avoided by reducing sugar was 746 deaths per year Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 191 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 Table 6 Summary of the Choices program modeling studies included in the systematic review References Country Method Outcome measures (sugar intake) Roodenburg et al. (2009)44 Netherlands Three scenarios were calculated and compared using Dutch National Food Consumption Survey 2003: Scenario 1—usual nutrient intakes “as measured” Scenario 2—the same as scenario 1, except that all foods that did not comply with the Choices cri- teria were replaced, where pos- sible, by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria Scenario 3—the same as scenario 2, but corrected for the differ- ence in energy density between the original and the replacement food* The distribution curve of scenario 2 and 3 shifted to the left of the curve for scenario 1 Approximately 37% reduction in median total sugar intakes were observed if the Dutch population were to eat only foods that comply with Choices (with adjustment for energy density) as com- pared with the “as measured” intakes Temme et al. (2010)45 Netherlands Three replacement scenarios were compared using the Dutch con- sumption survey The foods not complying with Choices criteria were replaced by: Scenario 1— foods complying with the Choices criteria and the real 2007 market shares Scenario 2—the same as scenario 1 but with 100% market shares Scenario 3—the existing similar foods with a composition that al- ready complied with the Choices criteria with 100% market shares Scenarios 1 and 2 included food groups for which market share information was available, such as nonalcoholic drinks, proc- essed fruit and vegetables, cheese, dairy and dairy products, soya foods, prepared meals, soup, fats (baking and spread- ing), fat-based sauces, and wa- ter-based sauces Scenario 3 included all food groups Scenario 1—Sugar intake reduced by 1% Scenario 2—Sugar intake reduced by 6% (8.9 g median) Scenario 3—All noncomplying foods replaced by complying foods with ac- tual compositions, estimated intake of sugar would be 88.5 g/d (95%CI, 85.8– 91.6), a reduction of 36% (50 g) com- pared with the reference intake The main contributors to this reduction are nonalcoholic drinks, responsible for half of the reduction, and sweets, sweet snacks, and dairy products (5%–6% lower intake compared with baseline) The distribution curve of scenario 3 shifted to the left of the curve for scenarios 1 and 2 Roodenburg et al. (2011)46 Netherlands, Greece, Spain, United States, Israel, China, South Africa Average intakes of energy, trans fatty acids, saturated fats, so- dium, added sugar, and fiber were derived from dietary in- take studies and food consump- tion surveys. For each of the key nutrients, these average intakes were translated into 3 typical daily menus per country. These 3 menus were compared with average intakes from 3 Choices daily menus. Foods from the typical menus that did not com- ply with the Choices criteria were replaced with foods that did comply and are available on the market Added sugar intake reduced by 2.9�62.1 g/d with the Choices menus For Spain, China, and Israel, typical added sugar intakes were already below recommendation None of the foods in the Chinese and the South African typical menus were replaced because added sugar levels were low (China) or no alternatives were available on the market (South Africa). For the other countries, sweet snacks and cereals were replaced and also sugar in coffee (in Greece, where sweeteners are commonly used) (continued) 192 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 Modeling of reformulation All of the modeling studies suggest reformulation can reduce sugar intake38–42 and improve health out- comes.37,38,42 The results provide useful insight, reveal- ing the extent to which reformulation could contribute to improving health, even in the absence of changes in individual’s behavior. However, the results must be considered with caution given the uncertainties sur- rounding modeling studies. There are known limitations to national dietary survey data, which are used extensively in modeling studies. Many studies show that dietary surveys relying on self-reported intake data are prone to errors of re- call.51–57 Therefore, any studies of associations with health based on self-reported dietary intake data may potentially underestimate the effect of reformulation but also underestimate the interventions needed to deal with excessive sugar intake. Moreover, there are concerns related to the type of food composition data used. For example, generic food composition data do not include many branded and new products, meaning that several products are aver- aged to 1 nutrient composition, which may not repre- sent the products consumed. Indeed, studies have shown that very similar products can have a wide varia- tion in nutrient levels, particularly in sugar content.58 Also, nutrient data may not have been correctly measured or calculated. For instance, the definition of free sugars excludes other sugars such as lactose and in- trinsic sugars in fruit and vegetables. However, there are no verified tests to distinguish the different types of sugars, and current labeling requirements for total sug- ars do not distinguish the different types. This can add a layer of complication when estimating the effect of reformulation. Also, this can act as a disincentive to manufacturers attempting to reformulate when their efforts may be confounded by the presence of milk, fruit, and vegetables. Nevertheless, generic food composition databases are the best open source of nutrition information avail- able for a wide range of products. Some modeling studies may have underestimated the potential impact of reformulation. In the Ma et al.38 study several separate analyses were conducted the results suggested that the main findings were conserva- tive. The authors also estimated sugar-sweetened drink intake more accurately by combining sales and intake data to overcome the prevalent issue of diet under- reporting, which has rarely been considered in similar studies.59,60 Although they tried to correct for under- reporting, the results are still likely to have underesti- mated the effect of reformulation. However, some mod- els may have overestimated the impact because in foods, unlike drinks, reformulation in practice can be more complex than simulated.61 At the same time, most of the modeling studies assessed the initial impact of reformulationand not Table 6 Continued References Country Method Outcome measures (sugar intake) Roodenburg et al. (2013)47 Netherlands Scenarios were calculated and compared using data from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19–30 y) and the Dutch food composition table Scenario 1—the “actual intakes” Scenario 2—same as scenario 1 except all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria* Scenario 3—same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in en- ergy density between the origi- nal and replacement food Scenarios 4 and 5 were calculated where snacks were not or were partially replaced Scenario 1—The intake guidelines (15% of energy intake in Netherlands) for to- tal sugar were not reached by 95% of the population Scenario 2—Median sugar intake was re- duced from 142.0 to 91.7g/d, reduction of 50.3g/d. The proportion of the popu- lation not meeting the recommended sugar intake guideline was reduced to 71% Scenario 3—Median sugar intake was re- duced by 40.7g/d. The percentage not meeting the recommended sugar in- take guideline were 80% of the population Scenarios 4 and 5—Median sugar intake was reduced by 42.7 and 38.9 g/d The snacks scenarios indicated that not replacing snacks with Choices compli- ant products resulted in substantially higher intakes of sugar, indicating snacks are an important source of sugar Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval. *It was hypothesized that consumers may compensate for the reduction in energy intake by eating more foods with lower energy den- sity. Therefore, when foods were replaced with foods with lower energy, a multiplication factor was applied, so that the total amount of energy consumed was the same as the energy delivered by the replacement food. Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 193 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 subsequent reformulation. Therefore, the long-term im- pact of reformulation may have been underestimated. Furthermore, it is likely that once the products with the lowest level of sugar are reformulated, some products that were initially more nutritious will also be reformu- lated to maintain product differentiation. Modeling studies did not consider practical con- cerns with reformulation, such as whether the interven- tion will be implemented by a government jurisdiction on a voluntary or mandatory basis. There are several examples of programs implemented by governments that sought to reduce the population’s sugar intake as part of a wider intervention to improve population diets, including programs in England,62 the Netherlands,63 France,64 and Australia.65 Most of these programs are voluntary, and therefore their effective- ness has been questioned.40,65–68 The concern seems to revolve around lack of compliance from manufacturers; progress maybe slowed down because there are no con- sequences for non-compliance. Nevertheless, the results from the modeling studies are promising. Different approaches of reformulation All of the modeling studies of different reformulation approaches show a reduction in sugar intake and/or improvement in health outcomes. However, all of the concerns raised previously in relation to the limitations of modeling studies would apply to the Basu and Lewis43 modeling study and the Choices program studies.44–47 Moreover, the Choices program and health logo/ label initiatives in general are often implemented on a voluntary basis. Therefore, not all manufacturers will reformulate their products to comply with the criteria.69 Furthermore, studies that assess only products with such logos often do not collect data on how many less healthy products or those not meeting the logo criteria were introduced during the same time frame, limiting their ability to evaluate the overall supply chain.70 Logos/labels are intended to enable consumers to make informed choices, but this can only work if con- sumers understand the information they are provided. Also, the need to see reformulation permeate the entire supply chain argues against the use of logos/labels, which are used by manufacturers to promote their products.71 Nevertheless, in the absence of population- level reformulation interventions, logos/labels can en- courage some reformulation if the criteria are strict. Another approach is industry-led reformulation, which has been shown to reduce sugar intake. Many manufacturers around the world claim to be reformu- lating.72 However, when their reformulation plans are closely assessed, it is found that what is meant by “reformulation” is actually creating new reduced-sugar products, which is new product development. New product development is not reformulation; in such cases, the manufacturers are not reformulating a prod- uct to replace an existing one. Strengths and limitations This review is the first to investigate the impact of sugar reformulation on intake and health outcomes and grade the quality of the evidence. The review captured a wide range of studies because the inclusion criteria was broad. However, several limitations must be acknowl- edged. The limitations of the findings are those inherent to the primary research on which they are based, nota- bly inadequacy of dietary intake and food composition data, variation in the interventions, and the limited number of trials and studies. The exclusive reliance on English-language studies may have not represented all of the evidence available and contributed to a language bias. The terms used for the search strategy are one of the most important aspects of searching through the lit- erature. It is crucial to capture as many ways to express an idea or concept as possible to include as many rele- vant publications as possible. Because the term “reformulation” is open to interpretation, the terms used in the search strategy can probably be improved to retrieve more studies on reformulation. Furthermore, the search focused on sugar intake, but there are studies that focused on energy and calorie intake; therefore, not including such terms may have limited the evidence retrieved. The quality of modeling studies was not assessed because there are no formal assessment tools for them. Ultimately, the number of studies on sugar refor- mulation are limited, with high risk of bias and an over- all grade of low to very low quality; thus, drawing conclusions on study outcomes/effects was difficult. CONCLUSION The findings of this review suggest that sugar reformu- lation can be beneficial in reducing sugar intake and improving health outcomes. Much of the evidence draws on the potential benefits of population-level interventions through modeling, and these studies sug- gest there are health gains. This review provides an im- portant starting point for ongoing work on sugar reformulation. 194 Nutrition ReviewsVR Vol. 77(3):181–196 D ow nloaded from https://academ ic.oup.com /nutritionreview s/article/77/3/181/5280774 by guest on 03 N ovem ber 2020 Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge Ilham Gokal for conducting an independent screening of the citations. Author contributions. K.M.H. conducted the research; K.M.H. analyzed the data with assistance from F.J.H.; K.M.H. wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and revi- sion of the manuscript and approved the final version. Funding. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not- for-profit sectors. Declaration of interest. K.M.H. is an employee of Consensus Action on Salt, Sugar, & Health (CASSH). G.A.M. is Chairman of CASSH. CASSH is a nonprofit charitable organizations. 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