Climate change in South America

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Climate change in South America
Mariana M. Valea,e, Aliny P.F. Piresb,c,e, and Luara Tourinhod, a Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; b Rio
de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; c Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
d Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and e Brazilian Network on Global Climate Change
Research (Rede CLIMA)
© 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.
This is an update of M.M. Vale, A.P.F. Pires, Climate Change in South America, in Dominick A. Dellasala, Michael I. Goldstein (Eds.), Encyclopedia of the
Anthropocene, Elsevier, 2018, pp. 205e208, ISBN 9780128135761, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-809665-9.09753-6.
Introduction 1
Observed and predicted climatic changes 2
Climate change and biodiversity in South America 3
Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation in South America 4
Conclusions 5
References 5
Key points
• Climatic change in South America is increasing temperature and altering precipitation patterns, with more frequent and
severe extreme events, affecting many biomes across the continent
• The Amazon rainforest plays a critical role in the region’s climate and hydrological cycles. Deforestation, together with
climate changes, could lead to forest collapse and the disruption of rainfall patterns
• Experimental studies have shown that predicted changes in rainfall patterns can disrupt important ecological processes
within aquatic systems, affecting species interactions and ecosystem functioning
• Nature-based solutions offer a promising approach to address the challenges of climate change in South America, with
restoration and conservation of key ecosystems providing effective means to enhance the resilience of natural and human
systems to climate change
Abstract
South America’s highly diverse ecosystems have already been impacted by climate change, and those impacts are being
amplified by the extensive land use change in the region. Observed impacts include forest fires, heatwaves, floods, and
droughts, impacting socioecological systems in areas such as the Amazon and the Andes. Future projections point to an
increase in the frequency and intensity of these extreme events, with significant implications for vegetation cover and
biodiversity. The research underscores the susceptibility of South American biodiversity, forecasting contractions in the
distribution of terrestrial and marine species, especially those that are native or endemic to specific ecoregions. In addition,
experimental studies in bromeliad tank ecosystems provide insights into the impacts of climate change on South American
biodiversity, highlighting the complexity of ecosystem responses and emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches
to address emerging challenges. In response, nature-based solutions (NbS) emerge as pivotal strategies for climate mitigation
and adaptation, offering good strategies for enhancing ecosystem services. Notable NbS examples encompass forest resto-
ration initiatives aimed at reducing or avoiding urban flooding and the preservation of coastal habitats to reduce the perils of
rising sea levels. Actions aimed at maintaining and protecting terrestrial and aquatic habitats while considering the inter-
dependence between people and nature are imperative for climate adaptation and ensuring the well-being and livelihoods of
human populations in South America.
Introduction
South America has a unique set of ecosystems and an astonishing biodiversity, with very high levels of endemism (Pimm et al.,
2014). Its ecosystems, however, are highly threatened by increasing land use changes, especially the conversion of natural areas
to accommodate demands for cattle ranching, food production, and bioenergy. The degree of degradation, however, varies consid-
erably among ecosystems. The Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest, still holds about 80% of its original forest cover (Map-
Biomas Project, 2023). The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, on the other hand, only holds about 26% of its original forest cover, mostly
in tiny forest fragments that are unsuitable for most species (MapBiomas Project, 2023; Vancine et al., 2024). The Atlantic
Reference Collection in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-14082-2.00004-1 1
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-809665-9.09753-6
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-14082-2.00004-1
Rainforest, together with the Cerrado Savanna, Chocó/Darien/Western Ecuador, Tropical Andes, and Central Chile are South Amer-
ica’s “biodiversity hotspots,” global conservation priorities due to the alarming combination of high levels of endemism and loss of
original vegetation cover (Myers et al., 2000). Between 2010 and 2020, South America had an annual rate of 2.6 million ha of forest
conversion (FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020); however, country-specific deforestation moni-
toring often underestimates the degree and rate of native vegetation change as reported to the FAO (DellaSala et al., 2012). Recently,
global climate change emerged as an additional threat to South America’s ecosystems, acting synergistically with land cover change.
The region is enduring rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and
floods.
Here we present observed and projected changes in climate in South America, and their implications for biodiversity, based on
experimental and modeling studies. In recent years, there has been a significant surge in studies on the subject, greatly improving
our understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on the region’s rich biodiversity. We highlight the remaining knowledge
gaps, especially on observational studies, and specific taxa and environments. We also explore the potential of nature-based solu-
tions to enhance the resilience of natural and human systems to climate change in the region.
Observed and predicted climatic changes
Approximately 5e6% of South American biomes are projected to undergo significant changes by the year 2100 due to climate
change (Castellanos et al., 2022). At the same time, land cover change is expected to interfere with the capacity of ecosystems
and their species to adapt to climate change, as it is generally accepted that degraded systems tend to be less resilient to change
(Thompson et al., 2009, but see Côté and Darling, 2010). There is a high likelihood that observed climate change has already exac-
erbated the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity in several South American regions: the Amazon Forest, the
central savannas, northern and central Chile, and the Pampa grasslands (Segan et al., 2016; Manes and Vale, 2022).
According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), South America’s climate has changed in
the last decades (Castellanos et al., 2022). Their reported general observed trend in temperature consists of warming in the whole
region except for a cooling trend reported for the ocean off the Chilean coast. Under high emission scenarios, heatwaves are pro-
jected to escalate in frequency, intensity, and duration, with some lasting for exceptionally extended periods exceeding 60 days in
South America. There was an observed increase in the number of additional days of heatwave exposure from 2016 to 2020
compared to the period of 1986e2005. Notably, Suriname experienced ca. 15 more heatwave days, and Colombia ca. 9 days.
The risk of wildfires in South America is expected to rise significantly as a consequence. Between 1999 and 2018, there were
6,708,350 and 6,188,606 fire foci recorded in Cerrado and Amazonia, respectively, accounting for 80% of the total observed across
Brazil (INPE, 2020; LASA, 2020). Andean snow cover is retreating and observed glacier loss has increased from 30%to more than
50% since the 1980s, greatly affecting the seasonal distribution of stream flows. However, it is important to note that there is
a varying degree of certainty in future climate projections, with temperature projections being generally more reliable than precip-
itation ones (Castellanos et al., 2022).
There is great heterogeneity in predicted precipitation trends, with reduced rainfall in central-southern Chile and an increase in
precipitation across southern South America (Castellanos et al., 2022). Climate change is also expected to change the predominant
vegetation cover of several South American ecosystems, especially through changes in rainfall patterns. Although Amazon’s extreme
drought events in the last decade have attracted much attention, no clear observable long-term trend toward drier or wetter condi-
tions can be drawn. The frequency and intensity of these drought events contribute to elevated tree mortality rates and reduced
forest productivity. This can temporarily transform previously pristine forest regions from carbon sinks into net sources of carbon
emissions to the atmosphere, hampering their capacity for effective carbon mitigation. In other regions, however, there are clear
trends in rainfall patterns. The average change in the percentage of land area experiencing at least one month of drought from
2010 to 2019 as compared to 1950e1959 in South America, was approximately 65% in the northeastern region and approximately
50% in the northwestern, northern, and South American Monsoon (the central region of the continent) areas.
Changes in rainfall in southern South America have been coupled with more frequent extreme events, such as storms, associated
floods and landslides, and drought associated with wildfires in the region. These disasters have become more frequent, with climate
change potentially acting as a secondary factor increasing their impact. In the early 2020s, we witnessed catastrophic torrential rains
resulting in loss of life and widespread destruction of city infrastructure due to landslides and flooding, especially throughout Brazil
(e.g. Marques and Vilarinho, 2022). At the same time, reduced rainfall has been associated with severe forest fires that have ravaged
vast areas in Chile, as seen in Valparaiso city in 2023, and Brazil where approximately 30% of the Pantanal wetlands were consumed
by flames in 2020. Additionally, river droughts have added to the woes. The Amazon has been experiencing several unprecedented
droughts and higher temperatures, which are attributed partly to climate change (Lapola et al., 2023; Wagner et al., 2024; Flores
et al., 2024). In October 2023, the waters of the Rio Negro, a large tributary of the Amazon River, plunged to a historic low of
ca. 13 m, marking the lowest level recorded in 121 years (Wagner et al., 2024). This unprecedented decline resulted in a significant
loss of biodiversity dependent on the river and sparked a profound social crisis, intensifying concerns surrounding water access and
transportation in the region.
In addition to compiling observed climatic changes, the IPCC also synthesizes projections of future climate change based on
different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Depending on the climate change scenario, projections for South America for the
year 2100 predict a warming from þ1.2 �C to þ6.7 �C (Chou et al., 2014; Castellanos et al., 2022), with rainfall changes that
2 Climate change in South America
vary geographically, with a reduction of 22% in northeastern Brazil and an increase of þ25% in southeastern South America
(following the observed trend in the last decades). Considering only a 1.5 �C increase, there would be an increase of 100e200%
in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina, and 400% in Peru. Due to the strong relationship between
drought and the incidence of fires, predictive models suggest that the Cerrado region may experience a rise in burned areas ranging
from 39% to 95% under moderate and high climate change scenarios. Under a mild climate change scenario, a projected temper-
ature overshoot of 22% is expected to affect the region by 2050, gradually decreasing to an 11% overshoot by 2100, with significant
repercussions for agricultural output Castellanos et al. (2022).
The projected changes in climate will also affect ecosystems’ functioning and distribution in South America. Tropical forests act
as pumps of atmospheric moisture, an important driver of hydrological cycles on land (Makarieva and Gorshkov, 2007). In the
Amazon, the rainforest pump creates a flux of humid air known as the “atmospheric river” (Nobre, 2014). That atmospheric river
starts with the evaporation from the Atlantic Ocean, is transported westward by air currents, gaining massive amounts of water
vapor as it runs through the rainforest, turns southward, and finally “drains” in the form of rain. The Amazon rainforest, therefore,
has a key role in providing the rain that sustains some of the most productive agricultural areas in South America. Its rainfall extends
over a vast expanse in Brazil and neighboring countries, contributing to 21% of precipitation in Peru, 19% in Colombia, 16% in
Ecuador, and 33% in Bolivia (Zemp et al., 2017).
Climate change impacts on the Amazon can act synergistically with deforestation. A recent study suggests that deforestation of
slightly over 10% of the Amazon, in addition to the current 15% deforested, along with climate change (particularly changes in the
intensity and duration of dry seasons and the occurrence of extreme droughts), could lead to forest collapse by 2050 (Flores et al.,
2024). By 2050, between 10% and 47% of Amazonian forests may face intensified disturbances, potentially triggering unforeseen
ecosystem shifts and exacerbating regional climate change. Rising temperatures and prolonged dry seasons could prompt transitions
in Amazonian vegetation toward degraded open-canopy ecosystems.1 To avert a tipping point in the Amazon, it is crucial to keep
temperatures 1000 mm, together with the restoration of at least 5% of the Amazon and strict limits on
deforestation. Protected areas and indigenous lands have an important role in that regard.
Climate change and biodiversity in South America
South America is now relatively well studied in terms of species’ vulnerability to climate change, particularly Mesoamerica and the
Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspots (Manes et al., 2021; Manes and Vale, 2021). Available studies show that South America has
the highest climate change-induced extinction of all regions in the world (Manes et al., 2021). Most studies so far have focused on
the predictions of likely future geographic distribution responses of native species or groups of species (mostly terrestrial vertebrates),
using ecological niche modeling approaches (Peterson, 2001; Manes et al., 2021). These studies generally predict a large distribution
contraction of most species (especially those occurring in islands, mountain tops, or that are endemic to specific ecoregions), and the
expansion of the distribution of a few (especially the exotic ones) (Manes et al., 2021). Widespread range contractions are predicted,
for example, for South American plants (Siqueira and Peterson, 2003; Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2014; Ramírez-Amezcua et al., 2016;
Esser et al., 2019), birds (Marini et al., 2009; Souza et al., 2011; Velásquez-Tibatá et al., 2013; Ramirez-Villegas et al., 2014; Hoffmann
et al., 2015; Miranda et al., 2019; Tonetti et al., 2022), marsupials (Loyola et al., 2012), felines (Cuyckens et al., 2015; Vale et al., 2015),
bats (Aguiar et al., 2016; Zamora-Gutierrez et al., 2018), amphibians (Loyola et al., 2014; Lemes et al., 2014; Holmes et al., 2015;
Lourenço-de-Moraes et al., 2019a,b; Silva et al., 2018), reptiles (Ureta et al., 2018; Lourenço-de-Moraes et al., 2019a,b); freshwater
fishes and macroinvertebrates (Peluso et al., 2022; Souza et al., 2024); land snails (Beltramino et al., 2015), bees(Giannini et al.,
2012, 2020; Martins et al., 2014), and moths (Ferro et al., 2014).
Studies also reveal that the current network of protected areas in South America is unlikely to cope with the estimated changes in
species’ geographic distribution, becoming less efficient in protecting biodiversity in the future (e.g., Ferro et al., 2014; Lemes et al.,
2014; Vale et al., 2018; Malecha et al., 2023). Ecological niche modeling is a great tool to predict climate change impacts on biodi-
versity, but it usually does not include important determinants of vulnerability to climate change, such as species’ ecological inter-
actions, dispersal ability, physiology, and adaptive potential (Tourinho and Vale, 2023). Recently, some of these responses have
been assessed in South American studies, forecasting shifts in species distribution attributed to climate and land-cover changes,
with most species predicted to contract their distributions in the future (e.g., Diniz-Filho et al., 2019; Tourinho et al., 2021,
2022, 2023; Portela et al., 2023). The observed impact on plant species in the South American Monsoon region is also expected
to worsen in a warmer climate. Over the last three decades, there has been a notable increase in drought-associated tree species
mortality in the southern Amazon rainforest (Esquivel-Muelbert et al., 2019). Historical changes in land cover, coupled with
ongoing climate shifts in the area, have significantly affected biodiversity, resulting in the extinction of 657 plant species within
the Cerrado biome. This figure surpasses global records of plant extinctions by more than fourfold (Strassburg et al., 2017).
Experimental studies on the likely effects of climate change on South American biodiversity, though still scarce, have been
steadily growing in the last years. Tank bromeliad ecosystems have been demonstrated to be suitable environments to perform
experiments and have become model systems in climate change studies in South America (Srivastava et al., 2004, 2020; Pires
1It is important to highlight, however, that the term “savannization” should be avoided due to its negative connotation towards savannas, which are important
and diverse ecosystems.
Climate change in South America 3
et al., 2016, 2017, 2018; Marino et al., 2017). Tank bromeliads are Neotropical plants that accumulate rainwater and litter between
the axils of their leaves, forming a miniature aquatic ecosystem (Benzing, 2000), composed of several interacting organisms and
ecosystem processes (Marino et al., 2013; Pires et al., 2016). Recent studies using these environments have shown that predicted
changes in the rainfall pattern in Southeastern Brazil can undermine important ecological processes. The increase in the occurrence
of extreme rainfall events disrupted trophic interactions within tank bromeliad ecosystems, despite slight changes in the abundance
and richness of organisms (Pires et al., 2016), and species niche complementarity with great consequences to ecosystem functioning
(Pires et al., 2018). Changes in precipitation can regulate the behavior of organisms that occupy aquatic environments bymodifying
habitat selection (Pires et al., 2016) and the trophic cascade effects mediated by nonlethal mechanisms (Marino et al., 2017). We
can expect that changes in precipitation will affect ecosystem processes in aquatic environments by regulating their hydrological
regime and triggering several cascade effects (Marino et al., 2017). However, it is important to highlight that this effect can be
perceived differently by local communities, where local climate (Marino et al., 2018; Srivastava et al., 2020) and functional compo-
sition (Céréghino et al., 2022) have a key role in driving the final outcome.
Predicted changes in rainfall have also promoted shifts in algal dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems by regulating factors
that control nutrient availability in the water (Pires et al., 2017). Experimental tests of the effects of temperature increase on tank
bromeliad ecosystems are underway, and the results indicate that temperature will have severe consequences for ecosystem produc-
tivity (Antiqueira, 2017). Studies using artificial microcosms have shown that the effects of temperature increase in tropical regions
may be greater than in temperate environments, as the species in tropical regions already experience their optimal climatic niche
(Marino et al., 2018), as also suggested for bacterial communities in coastal lagoons (Pires et al., 2014). Thus, any increase in
temperature could lead to the displacement of the optimal climatic niche of bacteria, leading to a change in their metabolism
and the processes performed by them.
The Amazon has a key role in determining the fate of South American ecosystems in the face of climate change. Recently, empir-
ical approaches have been developed in this biome. The Amazon FACE experiment aims to investigate the effects of increased
carbon on the resilience of the Amazon forest and the importance of the spatial-temporal variability of tropical forests (Hofhansl
et al., 2016; Grossman, 2016). The experiment showed that CO2 fertilization may have similar effects to deforestation on the way
the Amazon forest contributes to rainfall distribution. This occurs mainly due to the CO2 impact on plant physiology, reducing
transpiration rates by about 20% (Sampaio et al., 2021). The ESECAFLOR Project is another initiative that aims to evaluate the effect
of water stress on the dynamics of the Amazon forest on fungi, lianas, and soil macroinvertebrates communities by reducing approx-
imately 90% of the rainwater input in the forest system. Partial results have shown that the sensitivity of extreme drought for each
group is different, which leads to significant changes in the structure of the forest (Powell et al., 2017).
Coastal marine environments are another type of ecosystems that should be greatly altered by climate change. In South America,
especially in the Brazilian coast, changes in the primary productivity and the distribution of several rocky shore species are expected
(Amaral et al., 2016). These environments will be influenced by changes that will occur in the open marine region and continental
areas that will reach the coast through the drainage basins. An increase in the nutrient discharge from rivers is expected, caused by
increased precipitation and by the increase in the strength of upwelling in coastal regions that can lead to an increase in primary
productivity in these regions. In addition, changes in the composition of planktonic communities can occur, especially the increase
in the occurrence of non-silicic algae. These changes may undermine several trophic interactions in the planktonic system and
collapse the fishery production in South America (Amaral et al., 2016). It is also expected that the zonation of the organisms in
the intertidal regions of rocky shores will have its upper limit reduced by temperature increase, which can lead to massive mortality
of organisms during periods of low tides. However, due to the differential influence of several factors across the South American
coast, these results should be strongly biased by the region studied.
Considering that climate change will affect species distributions, interspecific interactions, and abiotic factors that promote
significant changes in the rates of biological processes, we can expect that climate change will affect important ecosystem services
in South America. For example, changes in the Amazon forest can contribute to a significant reduction in carbon storage and
changes in rainfall distribution should seriously jeopardize water security and food production on the continent. However, studies
combining theoretical and practical approaches by looking at the trade-offs betweenmultiple ecosystem services in the face of future
climates are still missing.
Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation in South America
While climate mitigation efforts are crucial for tacklingthe causes of climate change, climate change is already upon us, requiring
climate adaptation strategies alongside mitigation measures. Nature-based solutions (NbS) emerge as a desirable approach to
address the ongoing climate and biodiversity crisis (Castellanos et al., 2022; Manes et al., 2022). NbS are actions that protect
and restore natural ecosystems to solve global and social problems, promoting benefits for humans and nature (Cohen-
Shacham et al., 2016). A recent review assessing the effectiveness of NbS has demonstrated its ability to significantly mitigate climate
risks while enhancing the provision of multiple ecosystem services (Manes et al., 2022). NbS can, for example, reduce urban flood
risk, a growing problem in South American cities with the increase in frequency and intensity of climate change-induced extreme
events. For example, forest restoration in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second most populous state, could reduce surface runoff by up to
57% and retain nearly 200 million additional cubic meters of rainwater in the soil, contrasting with a potential tenfold increase in
flood risk due to intensified rainfall in the absence of adaptation efforts (Manes et al., 2024). NbS can also reduce coastal hazards
4 Climate change in South America
resulting from sea-level rise. Natural habitats such as mangroves, coral reefs, coastal forests, wetlands, sand-dune shrublands, grass-
lands, dunes, and rocky shores have inherent capabilities to reduce the impacts of storm-induced erosion and flooding. They achieve
this by attenuating storm surge and wave power, thus reducing the need for coastal retreat, where populations would otherwise need
to move inland in response to rising sea levels. The conservation of natural habitats along 8500 km of South America’s Atlantic
coast, for example, could reduce risks from sea-level rise by 2.5 times, contrasting with a potential 25e30% increase in coastal
risk if existing natural habitats are destroyed (Manes et al., 2023).
The coast of the Amazon and the Pampa grassland in northern and southern Atlantic coast of South America, respectively, face
high risks due to sea level rise, surge potential, and wind exposure (Manes et al., 2023). Identifying areas at greater risk is essential for
decision-makers to plan in a changing climate. Reforestation and conservation of native vegetation in the Amazon, for example, can
reduce these risks, while the Pampa region may require a combination of green (natural) and gray (artificial) infrastructure. The
significance of NbS is increasingly acknowledged in national policies such as Brazil’s National Plan for Adaptation to Climate
Change and the National Program for Coastline Conservation (Xavier et al., 2022). However, legal mechanisms to protect the
natural habitats associated with NbS effectiveness are limited and weakening in Brazil. Therefore, actions aimed at maintaining
and protecting terrestrial and aquatic habitats while considering the interdependence between people and nature are imperative
for climate adaptation and ensuring the well-being and livelihoods of human populations in South America.
Conclusions
Climate change will have great impacts on South American biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. South America harbors
a heterogeneous and rich biodiversity that is being threatened by a changing climate, which includes increases in mean temperature
and ongoing changes in rainfall intensity and distribution. An increasing number of studies have projected species and ecosystems
to be strongly impacted by these changes. Here, we discussed the main findings and gaps in South America.
South American biodiversity provides myriad benefits to humans worldwide, including food and water production, climate
regulation, carbon storage and sequestration, medical products, and immeasurable cultural services that climate change may
threaten. The great variability in climatic predictions and the degree of degradation of the South American biomes will require
regional strategies to ensure the maintenance of these benefits in the coming years.
We showed that (i) climate change will interact with other stressors, especially land use changes, possibly showing strong posi-
tive feedback; (ii) Amazon deforestation will have consequences for the whole continent, including changes in social and economic
activities in the face of climate change; (iii) ecological niche modeling suggests that most species will show range contraction as
climate changes, especially native or endemic to the specific ecoregions; (iv) experimental studies have focused on changes in rain-
fall distribution in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but a new generation of studies are being developed; (v) climate change may
take ecosystems to a tipping point, impacting species interactions, ecosystem dynamics and important ecosystem services and
dynamics; and (vi) NbS have great potential for climate mitigation and adaptation in South America.
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Climate change in South America 7
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	Climate change in South America
	Introduction
	Observed and predicted climatic changes
	Climate change and biodiversity in South America
	Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation in South America
	Conclusions
	References