Desafio 1 BRF Modelagem Financeira

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EXBRF
	rd		7.9%
	t		34.0%
	rd*(1-t)
	D/(D+E)		17.0%
	
	rf		6.9%
	beta desalavancado		0.66
	beta alavancado
	pm		5.0%
	re
	E/(D+E)		83.0%
	
	Custo de Capital (R$)
	
	DRE (R$ milhões)	2010	2011	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
	Receita Bruta	26,033	29,361	31,324	36,682	40,451	44,406	48,553	52,933	57,549	62,417	67,619	73,132
	(-) Deduções	(3,352)	(3,654)	(3,899)	(4,566)	(5,035)	(5,527)	(6,043)	(6,588)	(7,163)	(7,769)	(8,416)	(9,103)
	Deduções / Receita Bruta	12.9%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%	12.4%
	(=) Receita Líquida	22,681	25,706	27,425	32,116	35,416	38,879	42,510	46,345	50,386	54,648	59,203	64,029
	Mercado Interno	10,175	11,630	12,213	14,758	16,386	18,084	19,826	21,632	23,502	25,440	27,477	29,604
	Mercado Externo	8,987	10,092	11,054	12,372	13,519	14,733	16,053	17,489	19,043	20,725	22,564	24,555
	Lácteos	2,312	2,539	2,633	3,129	3,441	3,770	4,112	4,472	4,848	5,243	5,661	6,099
	Food Service	1,207	1,445	1,526	1,857	2,071	2,292	2,519	2,752	2,992	3,240	3,500	3,771
	(-) CPV	(16,171)	(18,161)	(20,240)	(22,516)	(24,788)	(27,177)	(29,681)	(32,323)	(35,105)	(38,035)	(41,163)	(44,473)
	(=) Lucro Bruto	6,510	7,546	7,185	9,600	10,628	11,702	12,829	14,022	15,281	16,613	18,040	19,556
	Margem Bruta	28.7%	29.4%	26.2%	29.9%	30.0%	30.1%	30.2%	30.3%	30.3%	30.4%	30.5%	30.5%
	(-) Despesas Operacionais	(4,246)	(4,658)	(4,703)	(5,507)	(6,073)	(6,667)	(7,290)	(7,947)	(8,640)	(9,371)	(10,152)	(10,980)
	Vendas	(3,523)	(3,838)	(3,874)	(4,537)	(5,003)	(5,493)	(6,006)	(6,547)	(7,118)	(7,720)	(8,364)	(9,046)
	Gerais e Administrativas	(333)	(427)	(431)	(505)	(557)	(611)	(668)	(728)	(792)	(859)	(930)	(1,006)
	Outras Receitas (Despesas) Oper.	(390)	(394)	(398)	(466)	(513)	(564)	(616)	(672)	(730)	(792)	(858)	(928)
	(=) EBITDA	2,265	2,887	2,482	4,093	4,555	5,035	5,539	6,075	6,641	7,242	7,888	8,576
	Margem EBITDA	10.0%	11.2%	9.1%	12.7%	12.9%	12.9%	13.0%	13.1%	13.2%	13.3%	13.3%	13.4%
	(-) Depreciação	(780)	(886)	(914)	(999)	(1,100)	(1,200)	(1,304)	(1,413)	(1,528)	(1,650)	(1,778)	(1,914)
	(=) EBIT	1,485	2,001	1,569	3,093	3,455	3,835	4,235	4,661	5,113	5,592	6,109	6,662
	Margem Operacional	6.5%	7.8%	5.7%	9.6%	9.8%	9.9%	10.0%	10.1%	10.1%	10.2%	10.3%	10.4%
	(-) Despesa Financeira Líquida	(221)	(241)	(260)	(280)	(305)	(326)	(349)	(373)	(399)	(426)	(456)	(487)
	(=) LAIR	1,264	1,760	1,308	2,813	3,150	3,509	3,887	4,289	4,714	5,166	5,654	6,175
	(-) IR	(430)	(599)	(445)	(957)	(1,071)	(1,193)	(1,321)	(1,458)	(1,603)	(1,757)	(1,922)	(2,099)
	(=) Lucro Líquido	834	1,162	864	1,857	2,079	2,316	2,565	2,830	3,111	3,410	3,731	4,075
	Margem Líquida	3.7%	4.5%	3.1%	5.8%	5.9%	6.0%	6.0%	6.1%	6.2%	6.2%	6.3%	6.4%
	
	Balanço (R$ milhões)	2010	2011	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
	Caixa Operacional	454	514	549	642	708	778	850	927	1,008	1,093	1,184	1,281
	Excesso de Caixa	1,330	1,520	1,714	1,907	2,101	2,294	2,488	2,681	2,875	3,069	3,262	3,456
	Contas a Receber	2,707	3,414	3,643	4,266	4,704	5,164	5,647	6,156	6,693	7,259	7,864	8,505
	Estoque	2,136	2,679	2,986	3,322	3,657	4,009	4,379	4,769	5,179	5,611	6,073	6,561
	Ativos Biológicos	901	1,156	1,288	1,433	1,578	1,730	1,889	2,058	2,235	2,421	2,620	2,831
	Impostos a Compensar	1,463	1,653	1,763	2,065	2,277	2,499	2,733	2,979	3,239	3,513	3,806	4,116
	Imob Bruto	13,544	14,672	16,156	18,081	19,956	21,963	24,092	26,365	28,792	31,388	34,150	37,074
	(-) Deprec Acum	(4,099)	(4,486)	(5,400)	(6,399)	(7,499)	(8,699)	(10,003)	(11,416)	(12,944)	(14,594)	(16,373)	(18,287)
	
	Contas a Pagar	2,059	2,681	2,988	3,324	3,660	4,013	4,382	4,772	5,183	5,616	6,078	6,566
	Salários e Encargos a Pagar	133	117	117	131	144	158	173	188	204	222	240	259
	Impostos a Pagar	211	225	240	281	310	340	372	405	441	478	518	560
	Empréstimos de Curto Prazo	1,443	1,629	1,742	1,942	2,103	2,271	2,443	2,624	2,812	3,010	3,218	3,434
	Empréstimos de Longo Prazo	3,367	3,801	4,064	4,532	4,907	5,298	5,701	6,122	6,562	7,023	7,508	8,012
	PL	11,222	12,670	13,548	15,107	16,358	17,660	19,003	20,407	21,873	23,411	25,026	26,706
		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	
	Auxiliar (R$ milhões)	2010	2011	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
	Capital de Giro Líquido: Ativo
	Capital de Giro Líquido: Passivo
	Capital de Giro Líquido (Ativo - Passivo)
	
	FLUXO DE CAIXA DESCONTADO
	
	Fluxo de Caixa para os Investidores (R$ milhões)			2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
	(+) Resultado Operacional
	(-) Imposto Operacional
	(+) Depreciação
	(-) CAPEX			(1,485)	(1,925)	(1,875)	(2,007)	(2,129)	(2,273)	(2,427)	(2,596)	(2,762)	(2,924)
	(-) Investimento em Capital de Giro Líq
	(=) Fluxo de Caixa para os Investidores
	
	Perpetuidade (R$ milhões)
	Crescimento		4.5%
	WACC		0.0%
	Perpetuidade (em 2021P)
	
				2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
	(=) Flx Cx para os Invest (c/ perpetuidade)
	
	Firm Value (R$ milhões)
	(-) Dívida Líquida
	(=) Equity Value
	
	# Ações (milhões)		869.461
	Preço por Ação (R$)
	Preço por Ação (R$) - Mercado		17.8
	Upside