Desafio 2 DR Modelagem Financeira

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EXDR
	rd	11.0%
	t	34.0%
	rd*(1-t)
	D/(D+E)	30.0%
	
	rf	6.5%
	beta alavancado	1.30
	pm	6.0%
	re
	E/(D+E)	70.0%
	
	Custo de Capital (R$)
	
	DRE (R$ mil)	2008	2009	2010P	2011P	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P
	Receita Bruta	1,147,626	1,594,564	1,853,237	2,206,140	2,582,423	2,969,965	3,363,717	3,765,343	4,174,231	4,593,130	5,028,599	5,491,355
	(-) Deduções	(71,652)	(60,368)	(68,570)	(81,627)	(95,550)	(109,889)	(124,458)	(139,318)	(154,447)	(169,946)	(186,058)	(203,180)
	Deduções / Receita Bruta	6.2%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%
	(=) Receita Líquida	1,075,974	1,534,196	1,784,667	2,124,512	2,486,874	2,860,077	3,239,260	3,626,025	4,019,785	4,423,184	4,842,540	5,288,175
	(-) CPV	(820,804)	(1,203,796)	(1,365,510)	(1,609,126)	(1,865,160)	(2,138,811)	(2,416,981)	(2,701,349)	(2,991,794)	(3,290,399)	(3,601,754)	(3,933,206)
	(=) Lucro Bruto	255,170	330,400	419,157	515,386	621,714	721,266	822,279	924,676	1,027,991	1,132,785	1,240,786	1,354,970
	Margem Bruta	23.7%	21.5%	23.5%	24.3%	25.0%	25.2%	25.4%	25.5%	25.6%	25.6%	25.6%	25.6%
	(-) Despesas Operacionais	(217,881)	(272,208)	(341,716)	(399,335)	(461,026)	(522,037)	(583,845)	(646,886)	(711,098)	(776,911)	(845,301)	(917,849)
	Vendas	(185,671)	(243,413)	(300,890)	(356,071)	(414,327)	(476,505)	(539,679)	(604,116)	(669,718)	(736,927)	(806,794)	(881,039)
	Gerais e Administrativas	(52,761)	(58,709)	(83,876)	(90,258)	(96,730)	(103,071)	(109,334)	(115,718)	(122,250)	(128,969)	(135,929)	(143,197)
	Outras Receitas (Despesas) Oper.	20,551	29,914	43,050	46,994	50,031	57,539	65,167	72,948	80,870	88,986	97,422	106,387
	(=) EBITDA	37,289	58,192	77,441	116,051	160,688	199,230	238,434	277,790	316,892	355,874	395,485	437,121
	Margem EBITDA	3.5%	3.8%	4.3%	5.5%	6.5%	7.0%	7.4%	7.7%	7.9%	8.0%	8.2%	8.3%
	(-) Depreciação	(27,911)	(36,483)	(36,958)	(46,355)	(57,732)	(71,030)	(86,435)	(104,244)	(124,825)	(148,609)	(176,134)	(208,067)
	(=) EBIT	9,378	21,709	40,484	69,696	102,956	128,200	151,999	173,546	192,067	207,265	219,351	229,054
	Margem Operacional	0.9%	1.4%	2.3%	3.3%	4.1%	4.5%	4.7%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	4.5%	4.3%
	(-) Despesa Financeira Líquida	(3,026)	(4,894)	(122)	(857)	(1,701)	(2,686)	(3,780)	(4,924)	(6,118)	(7,359)	(8,660)	(10,045)
	(=) LAIR	6,352	16,815	40,361	68,839	101,255	125,514	148,219	168,622	185,949	199,906	210,691	219,009
	(-) IR	(2,160)	(5,717)	(13,723)	(23,405)	(34,427)	(42,675)	(50,394)	(57,331)	(63,223)	(67,968)	(71,635)	(74,463)
	(=) Lucro Líquido	4,192	11,098	26,639	45,434	66,828	82,839	97,825	111,290	122,726	131,938	139,056	144,546
	Margem Líquida	0.4%	0.7%	1.5%	2.1%	2.7%	2.9%	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	2.9%	2.7%
	
	Balanço (R$ mil)	2008	2009	2010P	2011P	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P
	Caixa Operacional	17,068	23,043	26,805	31,909	37,352	42,957	48,652	54,461	60,376	66,434	72,733	79,426
	Excesso de Caixa	84,724	51,080	52,826	54,573	56,319	58,066	59,812	61,559	63,305	65,052	66,798	68,545
	Contas a Receber	68,655	91,254	106,152	126,366	147,919	170,117	192,671	215,676	239,097	263,091	288,034	314,541
	Estoque	154,832	199,104	231,610	275,714	322,740	371,173	420,383	470,576	521,677	574,029	628,452	686,286
	Impostos a Compensar	17,861	44,462	51,721	61,570	72,071	82,887	93,876	105,085	116,496	128,187	140,340	153,255
	Imob Bruto	185,317	234,173	293,791	368,427	456,312	558,398	676,386	812,814	970,406	1,152,584	1,363,615	1,608,765
	(-) Deprec Acum	(79,570)	(116,053)	(153,011)	(199,366)	(257,098)	(328,127)	(414,562)	(518,806)	(643,632)	(792,241)	(968,375)	(1,176,441)
	
	Contas a Pagar	188,055	253,430	294,805	350,943	410,800	472,449	535,085	598,974	664,018	730,655	799,927	873,540
	Salários e Encargos a Pagar	19,583	26,409	30,212	38,033	44,988	48,500	51,250	53,340	54,888	56,018	56,863	57,553
	Impostos a Pagar	5,585	6,010	6,991	8,322	9,742	11,204	12,689	14,204	15,747	17,327	18,970	20,716
	Empréstimos de Curto Prazo	97,568	21,709	25,010	28,971	33,308	38,099	43,037	48,136	53,377	58,782	64,425	70,431
	Empréstimos de Longo Prazo	84,921	50,655	58,356	67,598	77,718	88,897	100,421	112,318	124,545	137,159	150,326	164,339
	PL	53,175	168,850	194,521	225,326	259,060	296,323	334,736	374,393	415,151	457,196	501,087	547,797
		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	
	Auxiliar (R$ mil)	2008	2009	2010P	2011P	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P
	Capital de Giro Líquido: Ativo
	Capital de Giro Líquido: Passivo
	Capital de Giro Líquido (Ativo - Passivo)
	
	FLUXO DE CAIXA DESCONTADO
	
	Fluxo de Caixa para os Investidores (R$ mil)			2010P	2011P	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P
	(+) Resultado Operacional
	(-) Imposto Operacional (34%)
	(+) Depreciação
	(-) CAPEX			(59,618)	(74,635)	(87,885)	(102,086)	(117,988)	(136,428)	(157,592)	(182,178)	(211,030)	(245,150)
	(-) Investimento em Capital de Giro Líq
	(=) Fluxo de Caixa para os Investidores
	
	Perpetuidade (R$ mil)
	Crescimento	4.0%
	WACC	0.0%
	Perpetuidade (em 2019P)
	
				2010P	2011P	2012P	2013P	2014P	2015P	2016P	2017P	2018P	2019P
	(=) Flx Cx para os Invest (c/ perpetuidade)
	
	Firm Value (R$ mil)
	(-) Dívida Líquida
	(=) Equity Value
	
	# Ações (mil)	20,056
	Preço por Ação (R$)
	Preço por Ação (R$) - Mercado	23.1
	Upside