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This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and educational use, including for instruction at the author’s institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Congestion pricing for Latin America: Prospects and constraints Charles R. Rivasplata a,b,* a San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, One South Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94103, United States b San Jose State University, Urban Planning Department, One Washington Square, San Jose, CA 95192, United States a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Available online 23 June 2012 Keywords: Congestion pricing Traffic restraint Travel demand management (TDM) a b s t r a c t In an effort to reduce the adverse impacts of the car and promote sustainable transport in Latin America, some governments have either implemented travel demand management policies or have considered ways of directly reducing the number of vehicles in congested areas. While demand management measures have been promoted in a small number of countries, including vehicular restrictions as well as the promotion of public transport modes, there are currently no congestion pricing programmes in operation in Latin America. This paper begins with an overview of travel demand management, including its principal aims as well as its primary objectives within the Latin American context. It discusses past efforts to promote traffic restraint and perspectives for developing congestion pricing schemes in both São Paulo and Santiago. Finally, it examines the potential role of congestion pricing as a demand management tool. While it is one of the most effective demand management measures in the indus- trialised world, a number of barriers currently prevent it from being widely adopted in Latin America. � 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In recent decades, transport planners have become increasingly aware of the need to promote Travel Demand Management (TDM) strategies, particularly in light of the decentralisation of activities away from urban centres. The negative impacts of increasing private vehicle use (e.g., rising levels of traffic congestion and fatalities, deteriorating air quality conditions, lack of physical activity) on cities and suburban areas arewell documented, causing a great deal of concern among local residents (WHO, 2011). As a result, many local governments have sought to curb private vehicle use, employing practical, low-cost solutions. Governments have found that while it is necessary to build urban infrastructure for the movement of goods and services, it is also important to make efficient use of existing facilities when designing mobility programmes and promoting alternative modes to the private vehicle. This is especially true in low density communities where public transport is limited. In order to be effective, vehicle restriction and/or congestion pricing should form part of a comprehensive transport plan. This paper proposes to explore the past development of TDM strategies in Latin America, particularly traffic restraint measures and proposals to implement congestion pricing schemes in cities in the region. It will seek to define TDM programme policies that have been successfully implemented, and where appropriate, will discuss their potential applications. In many cities throughout the Americas, there have been serious efforts to introduce TDM plans aimed at providing accessible alternatives to the private vehicle. In Latin America, these programmes have often consisted of vehicle restriction schemes in major cities, which have been coupled with public transport enhancements. Prompted by an increasing level of awareness of the negative effects of motorised transport on local environments, a number of countries have identified the need to reduce private vehicle use. Many local authorities in the industrialised world have adopted TDM schemes that make better use of available resources and educate the populace on the benefits of using alternative modes to the car. Similarly, in the developing countries, a small number of governments have recently begun to embrace demand-side solu- tions on a trial basis. However, planners have come to understand that even TDM strategies are not always transferrable and what works in Europe may very well not work in Latin America. Thus, these planners have had to adapt these strategies to their own local conditions. This paper begins with an overview of travel demand manage- ment and its evolution both in the developed world as well as Latin America. Next, it explores the role of congestion pricing, one component of a larger set of available TDM tools. This innovative form of vehicle use rationalisation has been implemented in * San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, One South Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94103, United States. Tel.: þ1 415 701 5383. E-mail address: Charles.Rivasplata@sfmta.com. Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Research in Transportation Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate/retrec 0739-8859/$ e see front matter � 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.06.037 Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e65 Author's Personal Copy a number of European and Asian cities, and studied in a small number of cities in Latin America. In particular, the paper reviews past attempts to mitigate growing traffic congestion in two Latin American cities: São Paulo, Brazil and Santiago, Chile. It also explores the prospects of intro- ducing congestion pricing in these cities, to better manage traffic congestion and generate new revenues for public transport and non-motorised transport infrastructure. In both cities, there has been a focus on developing sustainable transport strategies that can effectively achieve the broader objective of greater access for all. The following section provides background on public transport integration, its principal goals and objectives and its significance in regionwide transport planning. 2. Travel demand management In its efforts to promote sustainable transport options, TDM and its supporting programmes are designed to provide the traveller with a wide array of alternatives to the private vehicle. Collectively, these alternatives offer the traveller multiple transport options, reducing dependence on the private vehicle. 2.1. Overview of TDM Essentially, TDM comprises a diverse set of transport strategies that collectively promote the effective, efficient and equitable use of existing and renewable resources (adapted from VTPI (2010) and TRB (2012)). Increasingly, local authorities and planners have embraced TDM as a viable link through which to strengthen and coordinate regional transport, for the purposes of managing traffic congestion and reducing both vehicle emissions and traffic fatali- ties/injuries. Rather than accept the traditional predict and practice of increasing the supply of road space to meet private vehicle demand, TDM strategies advocate increased use of alternative options, such as public transport, bicycling or walking (Goodwin, 1999). This demand-side focus responds to evidence showing that increases in road capacity often do not provide long-term solutions to traffic congestion, but rather, promote vehicle use, leading to increases in traffic levels and congestion(Noland & Lem, 2000). Demand-side options normally require far less space and are more energy-efficient than vehicle-oriented, supply-side options. In addition, they are far cheaper to use, i.e., when gas, maintenance, insurance and other costs are taken into consideration. In general, TDM programmes and strategies have focused on producing changes in travel behaviour, improving access to public transport and non-motorised modes, making it more difficult to travel alone by private vehicle. These strategies are charged with decreasing vehicle occupancy, often placing restrictions and/or fees on private vehicle use. The principal types of TDM measures are education, promotion and outreach, and travel incentives and disincentives, which are complemented by sustainable travel options and supportive land use practices (Transport Canada, 2012). Under this framework, vehicle restrictions and congestion pricing are the principle TDM measures, complemented by enhanced urban public transport. In practice, TDM strategies have been developed to address all kinds of trips, such as those based on geographic location, trip purpose, route, mode and time of day. The development and implementation of these strategies normally entail a good deal of planning and negotiation with authorities and businesses. Often, they are closely linked to wider government policies and actions advocating low-cost solutions to many of the urban mobility issues encountered by both large and medium-size cities. While TDM has seen widespread application in Europe and North America since the 1970s, it has only recently been introduced in Latin America. In retrospect, many of the concepts central toTDM evolved from programmes implemented during World War II, when U.S. residents were required to reduce their consumption of energy in support of the war effort. Later, TDM strategies were adjusted to respond to the oil and congestion crises of the 1970s and became commonplace by the 1980s and 1990s. Today, they include not only employer-based programmes, but also demand- side applications for schools, special events, recreational centres, emergency situations (FHWA, 2004). In the past decade, Latin America has become increasingly aware of the need to seek low-cost solutions to curb explosive growth in motorisation. The following section reviews efforts made to apply demand management in the region. 2.2. TDM in Latin America In Latin America, as in many other regions of the Developing World, TDM provides an opportunity to develop sustainable transport options, tailoring strategies to local conditions. Many countries in the region are economically constrained and cannot finance high capital investments in transport without assuming a significant level of debt, effectively preventing investments in other critical sectors (Diaz Olvera, Plat, & Pochet, 1997). In contrast, TDM offers localities a general framework through which to make efficient use of resources and low-cost invest- ments, providing residents and other travellers with a set of mobility options through which to perform activities (Vasconcellos, 2001). Recently, many transport policies in Latin America have been linked to investments in road infrastructure, highway manage- ment and technology, commonly regarded as supply-side measures. However, in some cases, these have been com- plemented by demand-side measures that are linked to improvements in transport organisation, traveller information and awareness campaigns. In addition, demand-side measures have included successful marketing efforts, such as the promotion of public transport, bicycling and walking (Bovy, 2000). These alternative modes have been found to stimulate urban develop- ment and sustainable transport, i.e., in response to problems related to social exclusion and economic hardship (Vasconcellos, 2001). 2.2.1. Brazil In Latin America, Brazil has taken the initiative to create TDM- related legislation, providing a political response to perceived mobility issues. In 2004, the National Policy on Sustainable Mobility entered into practice. This policy is considered innovative for Latin America, and its introduction is considered to be a first step towards implementing TDM measures there (Rodrigues da Silva, da Silva Costa, & Macedo, 2009). It embodies a new focus on people and not vehicles, developing individual policy compo- nents for transport, accessibility, circulation and urban space; stimulating the use of non-motorisedmodes of transport; to reduce spatial exclusion; and improving the quality of urban environ- ments. Subsequently, the government launched the following programmes (Xavier & Boareto, 2009): � Accessible Brazil, which allows states and townships to develop actions for ensuring the accessibility of the disabled and elderly to public transport � Bicycle Brazil, which aims at stimulating the use and circulation of bicycles in a way that is integrated with collective transport systems. C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e65 57 Author's Personal Copy This policy could contribute to resolving many of the conflicts facing Brazilian cities, as it appears to transcend the existing barriers that have limited policymaking and transport planning in Brazil. National transport policies there have traditionally been car- oriented, targeted at residents that can afford the costs of owning a private vehicle (Vasconcellos, 1997), to the detriment of the majority of residents that cannot. It is interesting to note that in the case of Brazil, 45 percent of the urban population makes less than three minimum wage salaries, limiting this sector’s access to transport (Ministerio das Cidades, 2003). 2.2.2. Colombia Another country that has advanced in the development of infrastructure investment programmes is Colombia (CAF, 2010). Based on the need to initiate a structural change in transport to improve liveability and make Bogotá more efficient and competi- tive, the municipal government designed and implemented a comprehensive strategy to improve urban mobility (Hidalgo, 2004). Government plans, such as Por la Bogota que Queremos and Bogota Para Vivir Todos del Mismo Lado, adopted under Mayors Peñalosa (1998e2001) and Mockus (2001e2004), respectively, called for prioritising non-motorised and public transport and reducing car use (Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá, 1998, 2001). Cen- trepieces of this strategy included an extensive bicycle path network (“ciclorutas”) and the Transmilenio project, a landmark Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Collectively, these efforts have played an important role in the advancement of TDM in Colombia. A general referendum was placed before the voters to gauge the level of support for TDM measures, such as Car Free Day campaigns in Bogotá. This refer- endum, the first of its kind in Latin America to be passed by amajority of the voters, reflects a significant change in the attitudes of users, operators and the community in general. 2.2.3. Chile While Chile has yet to identify a set of TDM policies at the national level, the Transantiago Plan and reorganisation of transport in Santiago, have supported demand management principles. For example, this plan promotes the use of public transport and non- motorised modes through improved facilities. One of the prin- cipal objectives of the Transantiago Plan has been to make public transport a better choice for travellers through the establishment of higher standards of planning and investment, i.e., contributing to the development of an environmentally sustainable system (Rivasplata, 2006). 2.2.4. Venezuela In the past decade, Venezuela has made advances in the development and dissemination of TDM strategies, with plans for involving the general public in future campaigns. However, while the National Assembly approved legislation in support of the Kyoto Protocols, there is not yet a clear policydirection stemming from this action, nor is there widespread understanding of the potential benefits of TDM. In recent years, a small number of cities and states in Venezuela have begun to appreciate and even embrace some of the key principles of TDM, in a few cases, adjusting traditional programmes and campaigns to better suit the needs of local users. Nevertheless, efforts in such cities as Caracas and Merida (e.g., “Dia sin Carro”) have yielded only limited success. In the latter case, despite a concerted effort to involve the public in ongoing TDM campaigns, a change in local government eventually ended these efforts. Having reviewed some recent attempts to develop TDM in Latin America, we now turn our attention to congestion pricing, a tool that has proven to effectively reduce traffic flows during key periods of congestion. 3. Congestion pricing as a TDM tool Different types of disincentives to vehicle use, including congestion pricing, have proven to be an effective form of travel demand management. By pricing roadways according to the rela- tive level of traffic congestion at specific times, it provides greater choice to the traveller. 3.1. Overview of congestion pricing In essence, congestion pricing encompasses a set of strategies and techniques aimed at developing charges that will effectively discouragemotorists from entering a congested area during certain periods of high traffic congestion (Hau, 1992; Vickrey, 1969). In conjunction with other TDM measures, congestion pricing is an effective way of discouraging private vehicle use, especially where other alternatives exist. The concept behind congestion pricing is derived from the economic theory of efficiency and externalities, which states that people make socially efficient decisions if they fully consider the social costs and benefits. The optimal congestion tax is themarginal external cost at the point where the marginal social cost is equal to the marginal social benefit (Button, 1993). In practice, an analysis of pricing schemes ensures that congestion taxes are appropriately set. Multiple forms of congestion pricing have been implemented, including schemes covering the inner city (as in London), a signifi- cant part of the metropolitan area (as in Singapore), or a wider, perimeter area (as in Oslo). Other proposals have looked at charging on the basis of such factors as time of day or type of vehicle. According to GTZ (2002), the principal objectives of road and congestion pricing are the following: � Produce a shift in routes; � Bring a change in the time of travel; � Generate revenue; � Mitigate negative environmental impacts; and � Improve quality of life. In this section, this paper explores the potential for imple- menting congestion pricing schemes in large cities of Latin Amer- ica. Thus far, most city-based congestion pricing schemes have either employed cordon charges, where fixed or variable amounts are charged within a congested area; or areawide charges, where distance-based amounts are charged on all roads in an area (Larson & Sasanuma, 2010; Mahendra, 2008). In addition, over the past few decades, a number of other forms of congestion pricing have evolved, including: � Variable Roadway Tolls, charging tolls on an entire road or highway; � Variably-Priced Lanes, such as high-occupancy or express toll lanes; and � Variably-Priced Highway Ramps, charging traffic to enter/leave a freeway. These strategies have been shown to reduce traffic congestion, decrease vehicle emissions, increase public transport patronage, improve service reliability, and importantly, reduce the number of vehicle accidents on areawide roadways. In addition, the proceeds from congestion pricing can serve as a key source of revenue for other transport programmes (Litman, 2006). For example, in more C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e6558 Author's Personal Copy than one case, these revenues have helped fund public transport, which in turn, provides residents with an alternative option to the car (Rivasplata, 2006). Congestion pricing has had a significant impact on traffic volumes in some areas. In London, it resulted in a 26 percent reduction in congestion delays. A recent study in the U.S. estimated that congestion pricing can bring reductions of up to 5.7 percent in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and as much as 4.2 percent of vehicle trips in a region (TRAC, 2007). Standard tolls differ from congestion pricing in that the former comprise fixed amounts charged on a single road or highway facility. In the past few decades, advances in technology have facilitated the design and operation of electronic toll and conges- tion pricing facilities, eliminating the need for toll booths. As a result, many of the current toll facilities in the U.S. are automated, reducing vehicle processing time and administrative costs. Simi- larly, some congestion pricing systems have already successfully applied these electronic toll technologies. Thus far, congestion pricing has been implemented in a limited number of cities, including Singapore, London and Stockholm, while serious proposals have been rejected in Manchester (U.K.), Birmingham, and Edinburgh. In New York, a pricing scheme was rejected not by a metropolitan body, but by the state legislature (Larson & Sasanuma, 2010). Nevertheless, areawide congestion pricing proposals are currently being considered in a number of cities, including Beijing and San Francisco (SFCTA, 2010). London introduced a system of congestion charging in its central area in 2003. This areawide scheme requires that most motorists leaving or entering the city’s congestion zone (on weekdays) between 7:00 a.m. and 6:30 p.m. pay a congestion fee at vending machines, the Internet, or by phone. The system employs a vast network of cameras that record licence plates both entering and leaving the congestion zone (Litman, 2006), allowing for motorists to be charged accordingly e the initial fee of £5 ($8) was increased to £8 ($13) in 2007. In Stockholm, a congestion tax in the city centre was introduced on a trial basis in 2006, and was subsequently adopted by refer- endumwhen studies showed that traffic levels had decreased by 20 percent in less than a year. Fees to enter the city centre vary by time of day, from a low of about $3 to a high of about $9, and can be automatically deducted fromabankaccountor bepaid for (with cash or a credit card) at convenience stores (Larson & Sasanuma, 2010). The Singapore scheme also provides a model for areawide congestion pricing. In 1975, the city introduced the Singapore Area Licensing Scheme, the world’s first pricing system, which was converted in the late 1990s into an electronic road pricing scheme (GTZ, 2002). Recent advances in technology have permitted real- time variable pricing to be introduced as well. While congestion pricing features a clear set of benefits, critics have argued that it also generates equity issues. On the one hand, it assigns costs to those middle and high-income travellers that contribute most to congestion; however, it can also be financially burdensome to low-income residents that are dependent on a car, particularly if they have few viable alternatives (Ecola & Light, 2009). In some areas, efforts have focused on ensuring that congestion pricing programmes include discounts or free passes for low-income households (Frick, Heminger, & Dittmar, 1996). Despite equity concerns, there is evidence that in some cases, the public is ready to accept congestion pricing. In the U.S., a study commissioned by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) found that in the aggregate, there is significant support for tolls and road pricing. Based on quantitative analysis, this study determined that some important factors influencing public opinion include the type of pricing, the use of tolling revenues, and the clarityof information provided to the public (Zmud & Arce, 2008). In addition, other research indicates that equity issues may not be as much of a concern in practical applications. According to a Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study on the income-based equity impacts of congestion pricing in value pricing projects, the perception of unfairness may have been exaggerated in projects funded under the early phases of the programme. For example, equity impacts relating to income were not evaluated in the case of “full facility” pricing projects (e.g., on tollways). The study concludes that the perception that conges- tion pricing is an inequitable way of responding to the problem of traffic congestion does not appear to be borne out by experience (FHWA, 2009). 3.2. Congestion pricing in Latin America While no congestion pricing schemes have yet been imple- mented in Latin America, a number of cities have discussed managing congestion. Some cities in the region, including Bogotá, Medellin, Mexico City, La Paz, Quito, Santiago and São Paulo, have attempted to alleviate congestion by strategically imposing restrictions on vehicles. In other cases, governments have imposed fuel taxes. In most cases, these cities have prohibited vehicle use on a given day of the week, based on the last digit of a vehicle’s licence plate (Mahendra, 2011). These schemes, locally known as “pico y placa” in Bogotá, “restricción vehicular” in Santiago, and “Rodizio” in São Paulo, limit the number of vehicles on the road, but are heavily dependent upon ongoing enforcement. Vehicle restriction schemes are still very much in practice in the aforementioned Latin American cities. Despite some opposition, often from elements directly linked to the automotive industry, it is believed that these existing schemes still provide limited relief from increasing congestion. While congestion has progressively worsened in cities such as São Paulo, Santiago or Mexico City, without some form of vehicle restriction, conditions would prob- ably be far worse than they are. What is often not discussed is the idea of switching to a more effective alternative for restricting traffic during congested periods. While vehicle restriction has had some success, in time motor- ists have found ways to circumvent the system. In all of these cities, many of the residents living in high-income communities (where car ownership is typically higher) have simply bought a second car, effectively doubling their level of access to the city. In Mexico City and Bogota this pattern has been particularly evident and is a key reason why some experts in these cities have turned to other schemes for reducing traffic congestion (Mahendra, 2011). In the past few years, there have been ongoing debates on congestion pricing both in Santiago, Bogota and São Paulo. In Santiago, a study directed by FranciscoMartinez of the University of Chile and a team from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) found that with 900 new cars per day, Santiago can expect drastic consequences by 2030. To avoid this pending disaster, the authors of the study recommended that congestion pricing be introduced along with improvements to the Transantiago scheme. The Interministerial Office of Transport Planning (Sectra) is said to be developing a strategic transport plan for Greater Santiago that will include pricing (Valencia, 2011). Similarly, in Bogota newly-elected Mayor Petro has stated that he intends to introduce a congestion pricing scheme that would involve charging a fee for the use of specific corridors. While this proposal is still under discussion, it is envisioned that fee revenues would go towards improvements to the public transport system. One idea is to establish route concessions with private companies that would collect tolls for a specific route and transfer revenues to the city (Juaber, 2011). C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e65 59 Author's Personal Copy Clearly, in the cities with vehicle restriction, these measures alone cannot reduce or even stabilise congestion levels. Experts argue that congestion pricing is one of the most effective ways of restricting access to heavily congested urban areas. It can effectively introduce a price mechanism to limit vehicle entry to congested areas, and generate revenue to cover administrative costs and investments in alternative transport. The fact that congestion charges can be increased or decreased to control traffic volumes is especially attractive. That is not to say that there aren’t serious barriers to adopting a congestion pricing scheme, particularly in Latin America, where incomes are lower and resources are scarcer than in Europe. Depending on the size of the congestion zone and the tolling technology used, these pricing systems can run millions of dollars to design, set up and operate. In the case of London, the initial costs were sizeable (Litman, 2006) e start-up costs totalled over £160 million ($250 million) in 2007 currency (BBC, 2007). In addition, the provision of additional public transport service provides an alternative to the car. In London, a significant increase in public transport was provided in support of the congestion pricing scheme (Rivasplata, 2006). There are also grounds to believe that BRT can play an important role, as it is highly competitive with the private vehicle. Similarly, in Latin America congestion pricing schemes will need to secure design and start-up funding as well as initial operating funds. They will require the installation of sophisticated tracking systems, including electronic facilities and equipment, as well as the placement of cameras (CEPAL, 1999). The introduction of congestion pricing will also require not only coordination between municipalities or districts in a city or urban region, but also a great deal of political commitment, public acceptance, institutional capacity and education. Government must inform important sectors of the population, including motorists, other transport users, community groups, employers, and of course, society as a whole. In addition, a number of economic and institutional issues will need to be overcome. For example, a multi-million dollar conges- tion pricing programme will likely deprive other projects, sectors and geographic regions of important investments, regardless of the primary source of funding. This is a major concern, particularly in middle-income countries like Mexico or Colombia. On the institu- tional side, one key hurdle will be to ensure that the lead agency and consultants implementing these schemes have the capacity to successfully set up and operate such a programme. Equally important will be the need for the implementing agency to receive support from other cooperating agencies. After carefully considering the pros and cons of introducing congestion pricing, another issue that needs to be carefully considered by transport authorities is the choice of pricing scheme. Each city is unique in its geography, socioeconomic structure and set of travel patterns, and distinct from cities where congestion pricing has been implemented, such as Singapore or London (Hook & Ferreira, 2004). It is important that planners study potential congestion zones and based on a number of factors (e.g., future traffic levels, size, density), target one or more areas for imple- mentation. In addition, for maximum effect, thought should be given to combining congestion pricing with other TDM measures. Certainly the argument that congestion pricing generates inequities between income classes carries less weight in Latin America and other areas of the developing world. In these coun- tries, car ownership is largely a privilege of the high-income resi- dent and to some extent, the middle-income resident. In Latin America, most low-income residents have very low levels ofpurchasing power and often, do not own a private vehicle (nor have access to one). In most countries of the region, low-income residents are public transport-dependent and/or heavily reliant on non-motorised transport for most of their daily trips. In order to gain a greater perspective concerning some of the issues involved in deciding whether or not to introduce a conges- tion pricing programme, the next section explores congestion- related issues in two Latin American cities where such a pro- gramme has been seriously discussed. 4. Case studies: São Paulo and Santiago This section provides a profile of each case city, its urban transport network, past attempts to restrict traffic in different parts of the city and more recent proposals for introducing congestion pricing in the city. In São Paulo, traffic restrictions have been introduced, but toll facilities are not widely used. In the case of Santiago, authorities have implemented electronic toll roads in the past decade, providing a mechanism for recouping the costs of infrastructure investments. 4.1. São Paulo Over the past few decades, the issue of traffic congestion has increasingly become a central issue in São Paulo (see Fig. 1). International news sources have commented on this problem, with Time magazine noting that the city has the world’s worst traffic jams (Downie, 2008) and an IBM study placing it among the top six cities for commuter pain (IBM, 2010). The following paragraphs provide background on Greater São Paulo, its regional network and past attempts to implement vehicle restriction. Greater São Paulo, the capital of São Paulo State, is the principal population and commercial centre of Brazil, concentrating a very high proportion of the country’s industry and financial services. With close to 19 million inhabitants (CAF, 2010), it is currently the largest city in South America (see Table 1). The city is located on a plateau within the Serra do Mar, about 70 kmwest of the Atlantic Ocean and 360 km southwest of Rio de Janeiro. The metropolis has an average density of just over 8300 persons per square kilometre, comparable to the average densities of some European cities, but certainly lower than a number of other cities in the region, such as Bogotá or Caracas. Over the years, a relatively high level of car ownership has led to urban sprawl away from the city centre and longer average daily commutes. This pattern has resulted in greater car dependence and less use of alternative modes. Despite its high levels of congestion, São Paulo does have a comprehensive set of public transport modes. Currently, the formal public transport network consists of standard buses, trolley buses, minibuses, heavy rail metro, and commuter rail. In addition, a number of vans, formerly part of the informal transport sector, carry a significant share of all trips in the region. Collec- tively, public transport carries about 12 million daily trips (over one third of the region’s 35 million daily trips): 75 percent (9 million) by bus or van, and 25 percent (3 million) by rail (see Table 2). Greater São Paulo grew at a relatively rapid pace between the 1950s and 1980s, overtaking Rio de Janeiro as the nation’s largest metropolis. During this period, new roadways were built and car- oriented development was encouraged, much as it was in the U.S. (Vasconcellos, 1997). In the past few decades, a general lack of coordination between transport investments and land use planning has characterised many world cities, including Sao Paulo. An increase in car ownership (generated by rapid growth in incomes) without adequate travel demandmanagement has often resulted in severe air pollution and congestion during extended periods of the day (Anas & Timilsina, 2009). C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e6560 Author's Personal Copy Traffic congestion has become an increasingly pressing issue in São Paulo, particularly in the past few decades, when vehicle ownership has outpaced population growth in the region. The total number of cars in São Paulo grew from approximately 2 million in 1985 to 3.4 million in 2002 and almost 4.4 million in 2007 (CAF, 2010; Mahendra, 2008). In 2007, there were approximately 230 cars per thousand inhabitants, a relatively high ratio when compared with other cities in Latin America (CAF, 2010). In response to rising congestion and poor air quality conditions, the Secretary of the Environment of the State of São Paulo intro- duced a set of programmes in the 1990s. One of these included introduction of the “rodizio” programme, which sought to reduce pollution levels by restricting the circulation of one-fifth of the private vehicle fleet onweekdays (Hochstetler & Keck, 2004).While the programme was initially developed by the State of São Paulo, the City of São Paulo and its powerful transport agency initially opposed it, based on its strong ties with auto-supportive companies (Mahendra, 2008). The rodizio programmewas initially considered to be successful in improving air quality, as it informed residents of the adverse environmental effects of increases in car ownership, and encour- aged them to modify their behaviour. The level of compliance with the rodizio programme was said to be high, as many residents joined public authorities in a concerted effort to improve the environment (Hochstetler & Keck, 2004; Mahendra, 2008). In the mid-1990s, a however, a change in state government resulted in an abrupt end to rodizio. In 1997, the City adopted a less-stringent, rodizio programme for the purposes of reducing congestion in Central São Paulo (Mahendra, 2008). In the past ten years, increased motorisation has inhibited the effectiveness of the rodizio programme, prompting many to consider supplemental or alternative schemes for controlling congestion, including a congestion pricing programme. Many residents have chosen to circumvent the system through the purchase of additional cars, a trend that has proven difficult to thwart (Mahendra, 2011). As a result, São Paulo authorities estab- lished a local task force of transport experts to evaluate a set of pricing proposals (Hook & Ferreira, 2004). One option discussed by this task force was the development of a three-ring pricing scheme focused on Central São Paulo. Motorists would not be charged for travelling in the economically- depressed, inner ring, but would be charged for operating in one or more of the two outer rings. Issues to resolve include method of payment, vehicles to exempt, and enforcement (Hook & Ferreira, 2004). 4.2. Santiago For decades, Greater Santiago has attempted to mitigate high levels of pollution and congestion. In 1986, the city introduced a vehicle restriction scheme, in response to environmental concerns. Almost two decades later, Santiago implemented tolls on a segment of its freeway network as part of a larger transport plan. The following paragraphs provide background on Santiago (see Fig. 2), its regional network and attempts to implement vehicle restriction measures. Santiago, capital and principal commercial centre of Chile, lies at the northern end of the Central Valley, 120 km east of Valparaiso, the country’s chief port. It is the sixth largest urban region in South America, with close to six million inhabitants (see Table 1). In recent decades, Greater Santiago has witnessed substantial urban expansion, engulfing nearby communities (e.g., Maipú). Fig. 1. São Paulo: intersection congestion. C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e65 61 Author's Personal Copy The average population density of Greater Santiago is more than 8800 persons per square kilometre, slightly higher than the rate for São Paulo. Local mobility patterns have resulted in prolonged periods of congestion in central areas and medium to high average trip lengths. Despite the historic predominance of publictransport, motorisation rates have increased in recent decades, particularly in the middle to high-income residential areas. While the downtown is still a major centre of commercial activity, transport infrastruc- ture investment has further supported commercial and residential decentralisation (Rivasplata, 2006). Despite this decentralisation of activities and continued growth in car ownership, nearly 75 percent of all trips in the region are by public transport or one of the non-motorised transport modes. The public transport network consists of bus services, shared taxi services, a heavy rail metro system and urban segments of the national rail network. The road-based systems are privately- operated, whereas the rail-based modes are publicly-operated. Collectively, public transport carries over five million daily passengers: 80 percent by bus, 6 percent by shared taxi and 14 percent by rail (see Table 2). Santiago has witnessed significant growth in private vehicle ownership, from a rate of 60 cars per thousand inhabitants in 1977, to more than 165 in 2010 (CAF, 2010; Mahendra, 2011). In fact, between 1991 and 2001, the number of private vehicles in Santiago grew at an annual rate of more than 10 percent (O’Ryan, Turrentine, & Sperling, 2002). As in the case of São Paulo, explosive growth in car use during the late 1980s and 1990s was driven by increases in personal income and a gradual decline in the overall quality and reliability of public transport in Santiago. As cars became increas- ingly accessible in the late 1970s, many residents decided to purchase a vehicle, further contributing to congestion and air pollution. Santiago was one of the first cities in Latin America to introduce a vehicle restriction programme, largely in response to worsening air quality and its adverse impacts. Patterned after similar schemes piloted in Lima and elsewhere, this licence-based programme prohibited cars, buses and taxis from circulating between 6:30 a.m. and 8:30 p.m. at least one day a week (Fresard, 1998; Mahendra, 2008). It effectively removed one-fifth of the region’s vehicles on days of severe pollution. Eventually, it was expanded to all week- days between March and November. In general, results were mixed, with some initial congestion relief, but a gradual worsening of conditions as car use continued to rise. As in other cities, numerousmiddle and high-income residents purchased a second or third vehicle to avoid the restriction, further contributing to increased congestion and air pollution in the city. With the return of democracy in 1990, however, local authorities began to seriously study new ways of mitigating congestion and environmental degradation in Santiago. In 1994, the National Commission for the Environment (CONAMA) was established to develop air quality plans (Lee & Rivasplata, 2001). Since 1990, Sectra has played a role in the design and planning of transport in Santiago, including the establishment of the city’s first competitive tendering scheme for public transport in the early 1990s. In 1995, Sectra released its 1995e2010 Development Plan, which set system goals for limiting car use and maintaining the existing mode split in Santiago (Sectra, 1995). The Development Planwas uniquely multi-modal, coordinating enhancements to the roadway system in Santiago with expansion of the largely frag- mented public transport system (Rivasplata, 2010). A principal element of the Development Plan has been the construction, improvement and operation of a comprehensive network of roadways. Through an elaborate set of PublicePrivate Partnerships (PPPs), this set of thoroughfares and freeways has provided improved connectivity throughout the area. In the past decade, many of these freeways have been financed through elec- tronic toll systems, providing some of the tools necessary to also introduce congestion pricing. Importantly, the Development Plan introduced market-oriented mechanisms for electronically charging freeway users, requiring that all vehicles, except buses and other essential fleets pay a user charge of approximately US$4. Subsequent proposals called for implementing a variable road use charge of up to $4 per kilometre, based on time of day and level of congestion. Others suggested introducing parking charges, based on trip purpose and duration of stay (Mahendra, 2008; O’Ryan et al., 2002). Despite the fact that it would be very simple to implement congestion pricing, thus far, supporting legislation has been stalled in Congress. 5. Discussion While São Paulo, Santiago and other Latin American cities have implemented vehicle restrictions to offset growth in car use, no city in the region has yet adopted and implemented a congestion pricing programme. There appears to be growing interest in some areas and past experience has shown that congestion pricing schemes can achieve desired results. However, the political will necessary to proceed is still lacking (Mahendra, 2011). In both case cities, transport experts are fully aware of the costs and benefits of implementing a congestion pricing scheme (Mahendra, 2008). Prior to implementing a programme there are clear issues that need to be resolved, including: � the geographic area or areas to be targeted for congestion pricing; � the granting of exemptions to certain groups; Table 1 Urban characteristics of the case cities. Indicator Greater São Paulo Greater Santiago Population (thousands) 18,784 6039 Density (per square kilometre) 8333 8814 Total employment (thousands) 10,369 3471 Tertiary sector employment (%) 79 71 Sources: CAF, 2010; Instituto de Seguridad y Educación Vial, 2009. Table 2 Daily travel characteristics of the case cities. Indicator Greater São Paulo Greater Santiago Trips: all modes (thousands) 35,807 17,822 Trips per capita 1.91 2.95 Mode split (percent)a Private transport, incl. taxi 32 27 Public transport 33 36 Non-motorised 35 37 Public transport trips (thousands) 11,838 6503 Public transport modes (percent) Rail 25 35 Bus 75 58 Other (shared taxi) 0 7 Private vehicles Cars (thousands) 4386 819 Motorcycles (thousands) 652 23 Private taxis (thousands) 39 27 a Mode split includes all trips. Sources: CAF, 2010; Malbran, Muñoz, Thomas, & Scharz, 2003; Sectra, 2001. C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e6562 Author's Personal Copy � the reliability of existing car registration information; � the method of electronic pricing, i.e., a system that merely charges for entering a zone, or one that charges for going anywhere that is congested; � the funding strategy for both establishing a programme and providing for its ongoing operation and evaluation; � the estimation of costs and revenues, based on pricing scenarios; and � the strategy for covering administrative costs and if applicable, for applying programme revenues to other transport projects. In general, these are issues that may prove challenging, but that can be resolved, either in favour of implementing a congestion pricing programme, or in support of not imple- menting such a programme. After all, not all cities in the region would necessarily benefit from such a scheme and a great deal of caution should be taken before proceeding down this path. First, we have seen that these systems are expensive to establish and maintain and many countries are probably too poor to credibly justify introducing one. Second, it may be problematic to implement such a programme, particularly where there is little information linking vehicles to their owners. Third, estimated programme costs may be too high to recover through a variable fee schedule, let alone fixed tolls. Finally, in light of reported graft in some Latin American countries, there may not be a solid commitment on the part of authorities to see that these charges are enforced. In the event that congestion pricing is determined to be a viablealternative, what may be most challenging is securing solid, long-term political support. Experience has shown that for controversial programmes such as this, it is essential that one or more influential political figures strongly support themwhile they are in power, and that a long-term political commitment to the programme is secured. Without this vital support, a congestion pricing programme cannot be expected to survive, particularly where there is a strong car lobby. The political champion must take a strong and unwavering stand in favour of congestion pricing, convincing the public of its benefits and costs. This champion must also be willing to put his/her personal reputation on the line for the project, as former-mayor Ken Livingstone did in London. In the past year, there have been clear indications that the mood may be shifting in a few countries. There appears to be a growing acceptance of the need to implement congestion pricing in a few of the region’s most congested cities. Some decision makers, hesitant in the past to make a commitment to support congestion pricing, have either promised to seriously consider it, or have gone on record in favour of it. In Colombia, the DeputyMinister of Transport, Felipe Targa, and the Mayor of Bogota, Gustavo Petro, have stated that they support congestion pricing in principle. In Chile, the Minister of Transport, Pedro Pablo Errázuriz, commissioned an in- depth study to determine the merits of a congestion pricing scheme, and is said to be very seriously considering introducing one (Pinochet & Sottorf, 2012). Fig. 2. Santiago: major corridor traffic. C.R. Rivasplata / Research in Transportation Economics 40 (2013) 56e65 63 Personal Copy 6. Conclusion Latin America, like other regions in the developing world, has seen explosive growth in motorisation in recent decades, resulting in increasing levels of congestion; ongoing traffic fatalities and injuries; and environmental pollution in cities throughout the region. Nowhere has this been more evident than in the primary urban centres of the region, where daily travel has increasingly become more difficult. In the recent past, planners and decision makers have increasingly looked to TDM measures as a way of efficiently controlling congestion through low-cost, demand-side strategies. While many TDM measures are incentive-based, vehicle restrictions and congestion pricing represent measures that are intended to discourage the use of the private vehicle. In particular, pricing has been found to be a very effective tool for discouraging the use of the private vehicle in many industrialised countries of the world. In this sense, congestion pricing can effectively discourage a resident from entering a specific area (or even from using the car), especially where other, supporting measures are employed. In the case of congestion pricing, it is essential that an integrated set of public transport services provide the general public with alternative means of transport. A comprehensive set of information concerning pricing and alternative modes and facilities can also facilitate a significant shift away from the car. In their efforts to make transport more sustainable, São Paulo and Santiago have attracted a great deal of interest in vehicle restriction, capturing the attention of not only planners and envi- ronmentalists, but also, metropolitan decision makers. Perhaps, the fact that these cities are located in emerging, middle-income countries strengthens the argument in favour of establishing a congestion pricing programme. Each city already has a modern network of regional roads and highways upon which to test and implement congestion pricing, as well as a comprehensive set of public transport systems to support the programme. Based on an analysis of these cities, this paper concludes that congestion pricing may offer an alternative to some of the cities experiencing severe traffic congestion and/or environmental degradation. However, each city is unique and should be carefully assessed to see whether congestion pricing is an appropriate alternative. If there are constraints that prevent key provisions from being implemented, congestion pricing may end up falling short of its expectations. While vital, the mere adoption of a programme does not, in itself, guarantee widespread success. First, it is essential that pro- gramme planners seek input from city, state and federal agencies, transport experts and the general public. This process will help planners as they explore the various alternatives for implementing a pricing programme within an established set of constraints. Next, in each city it will be important to carefully analyse the potential impacts of congestion pricing schemes on the transport system and to compare future system scenarios with and without congestion pricing. A major step in this analysis will be to accu- rately estimate the general costs and benefits of specific congestion schemes, for example, in reducing traffic congestion, improving air quality and reducing the number of traffic injuries and deaths. Clearly, this should be an area of further study, as a reliable esti- mation of impacts may help decision makers adopt congestion pricing more easily. Under no circumstances should a pricing scheme lead to further poverty. Past experience has shown that the success of a pricing pro- gramme is often dependent upon the level of commitment on the part of all parties involved. Where vehicular restrictions and/or congestion pricing strategies are embedded in a larger transport plan process, it may be easier to maintain that level of commitment, as long as there is political and financial support. In contrast, stand- alone congestion pricing schemes can provide a deterrent to motorists. Without accompanying measures (e.g., an enhanced set of public transport services), however, these schemes are bound to fail. Finally, implementation of a congestion pricing programme should be carefully planned, and if appropriate, it should be carried out in stages. While there are advantages to bringing everything to fruition at the same time (e.g., equity, economies of scale), staged programmes can reduce the risk of failure and allow authorities to claim success at an early stage. A large part of the initial London pricing zone was implemented at one time, requiring a concerted effort on the part of planners, technicians and authorities to ensure its success. However, not all cities in Latin America have the capacity or the resources to pull off such an effort. 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