Buscar

slope-ch-05aSJOB-bod

Prévia do material em texto

�
$ 6ORSH�+HLJKW�9HUVXV�6ORSH�$QJOH�'DWDEDVH�
-RQQ\�6M|EHUJ���
,1752'8&7,21�
3UHYLRXV�6WXGLHV�&DVH�VWXGLHV�DUH�DQ�LQYDOXDEOH�VRXUFH�RI�LQIRUPDWLRQ��EHFDXVH�WKH\�UHIOHFW�WKH�DFWXDO�FRQGLWLRQV�DW�D�VLWH��7KHRUHWLFDOO\��LW�VKRXOG�EH�SRVVLEOH�WR�WUDQVIHU�WKLV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�LQWR�GHVLJQ�JXLGHOLQHV�IRU�URFN�VORSHV�LQ�VLPLODU�JHRORJLFDO�DQG�JHRPHFKDQLFDO�FRQGLWLRQV��7KH�SUREOHP�RIWHQ�OLHV�LQ�KRZ�WR�GHVFULEH��TXDQWLWDWLYHO\��WKH�SUHYDLOLQJ�FRQGLWLRQV�DW�D�SDUWLFXODU�VLWH�VR�WKDW�WKH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�EHFRPHV�XVHIXO�LQ�IRUZDUG�GHVLJQ���
��
�ILJXUH�����7\SLFDO�GHVLJQ�FXUYH�ILWWHG�WR�HPSLULFDO�VORSH�GDWD��K\SRWKHWLFDO�GDWD��
$SSURDFK��2EMHFWLYH��DQG�6FRSH�RI�:RUN�6RPH�RI�WKH�FDVH�VWXG\�GDWD�SUHVHQWHG�DERYH�KDYH�QRW�EHHQ�XSGDWHG�WR�UHIOHFW�FXUUHQW��ZRUOGZLGH�SLW�VORSH�JHRPHWULHV��2WKHU�VWXGLHV�IRFXVHG�RQ�GHULYLQJ�GHVLJQ�FXUYHV�DQG�GLG�QRW�FRYHU�D�ODUJH�UDQJH�RI�VORSH�FRQGLWLRQV��&RQVHTXHQWO\��WKHUH�LV�D�QHHG�WR�FRPSLOH�XSGDWHG�LQIRUPDWLRQ�IRU�URFN�VORSHV�LQ�YDU\LQJ�JHRORJLFDO�VHWWLQJV�WR�SURYLGH�D�PRUH�FRPSOHWH�GDWDEDVH�IURP�ZKLFK�GHVLJQ�LQIRUPDWLRQ�FDQ�EH�H[WUDFWHG���
��
�ILJXUH�����'HILQLWLRQ�RI�VORSH�DQJOHV�
&$6(�678'<�'$7$%$6(�
&ROOHFWHG�&DVH�6WXGLHV�7KH�FDVH�VWXG\�GDWDEDVH�LQFOXGHV����YLVLWHG�RSHQ�SLWV�DQG�DQRWKHU����IURP�WKH�OLWHUDWXUH����FDVHV�RI�VXEOHYHO�FDYLQJ�PLQH�VORSHV��RI�ZKLFK���ZHUH�YLVLWHG�������FDVHV�RI�QDWXUDO�DQG�HQJLQHHULQJ�VORSHV�LQ�&KLQD��DQG�����QDWXUDO�URFN�VORSHV�LQ�1RUZD\��'DWD�IURP�WKH�ODWWHU�WZR�FDWHJRULHV�ZHUH�WDNHQ�IURP�WKH�OLWHUDWXUH��&KHQ�����D������E��%URFK�DQG�1LOVHQ�������1LOVHQ�������'DKO¡�������������DQG�UHFRPSLOHG�DQG�UHDQDO\]HG��$�IXOO�GHVFULSWLRQ�RI�DOO�FDVHV��LQFOXGLQJ�DOO�UHIHUHQFHV��DQG�WKH�FROOHFWHG�GDWD�LV�JLYHQ�LQ�6M|EHUJ����������
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKW�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOH�IRU�YLVLWHG�DQG�UHIHUHQFHG�RSHQ�SLWV�DQG�FDYLQJ�PLQHV�
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKW�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOH�IRU�VWDEOH�DQG�XQVWDEOH�QDWXUDO�DQG�HQJLQHHULQJ�VORSHV�LQ�&KLQD��GDWD�IURP�&KHQ�����D������E�
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKW�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOH�IRU�FUHHSLQJ�QDWXUDO�DQG�HQJLQHHULQJ�VORSHV�LQ�&KLQD��GDWD�IURP�&KHQ�����D������E��
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKW�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOH�IRU�QDWXUDO�VORSHV�LQ�1RUZD\��GDWD�IURP�'DKO¡�������%URFK�DQG�1LOVHQ�������1LOVHQ�������
��
�ILJXUH�����([DPSOH�RI�REVHUYHG�ODUJH�VFDOH�VORSH�IDLOXUHV�LQ�RSHQ�SLWV���D��&LUFXODU�VKHDU�IDLOXUH�LQ�WKH�-HIIUH\�0LQH��3DULVHDX�DQG�9RLJKW�������DQG��E��/DUJH�VFDOH�WRSSOLQJ�IDLOXUH�LQ�WKH�/RUQH[�3LW��'DO\��0XQR��DQG�6WDFH\�������
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKWV�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�RSHQ�SLW�VORSHV��VRUWHG�ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�LQWDFW�URFN�VWUHQJWK�
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ�RI�'DWD�7KH�GDWD�FROOHFWHG�LQ�WKH�SUHVHQW�VWXG\�GLG�QRW�SHUPLW�URFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�RI�DOO�FDVHV��,QVWHDG��FDVHV�ZHUH�VRUWHG�ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�LQWDFW�URFN�VWUHQJWK��WHVWHG�DQG�RU�HVWLPDWHG���JHRORJLFDO�VLPLODULWLHV��DQG�MRLQWLQJ�SDWWHUQ��LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQO\�DYDLODEOH�IRU�VRPH�FDVHV���6LQFH�ODERUDWRU\�VWUHQJWK�GDWD�ZDV�QRW�DYDLODEOH�IRU�DOO�FDVHV��VWUHQJWKV�ZHUH�HVWLPDWHG�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�IROORZLQJ�OLPLWV�IRU�,650�LQGH[�WHVWV��%URZQ��������
5���:HDN�URFN���	�������F�	�������������03D��
���5���0HGLXP�VWURQJ�URFN���	�������F�	��������������03D�����5���6WURQJ�URFN���	�������F�	���������������03D�����5���9HU\�VWURQJ�URFN����	�������F�	����������������03D��,W�VKRXOG�EH�QRWHG�WKDW�WKLV�UHIHUV�WR�WKH�LQWDFW�URFN�VWUHQJWK�RQO\��7KH�VORSH�DQJOHV�XVHG�ZHUH�RYHUDOO�VORSH�DQJOHV��VORSH�WRH�WR�VORSH�FUHVW���LQFOXGLQJ�DOO�UDPSV��)RU�FDVHV�WKDW�IDLOHG��WKH�XQVWDEOH�VORSH�KHLJKW�DQG�WKH�IODWWHVW�VORSH�DQJOH�ZHUH�XVHG��)RU�VWDEOH�VORSHV��WKH�PD[LPXP�VWDEOH�KHLJKW�DQG�WKH�VWHHSHVW�VORSH�DQJOH�ZHUH�XVHG��([DPSOHV�RI�VORSH�KHLJKWV�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�WKHVH�FODVVHV�RI�VWUHQJWK�IRU�WKH�RSHQ�SLW�VORSHV�DQG�RQH�VXEOHYHO�FDYLQJ�VORSH�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������6LPLODU�SORWV�ZHUH�JHQHUDWHG�IRU�WKH�QDWXUDO�VORSH�FDVHV��)RU�WKH�QDWXUDO�VORSHV�LQ�1RUZD\��D�IXUWKHU�GLVWLQFWLRQ�FRXOG�EH�PDGH�ZLWK�UHJDUG�WR�WKH�MRLQWLQJ�SDWWHUQ�RI�WKH�VORSHV��'DWD�ZHUH�DYDLODEOH�RQ�WKH�RULHQWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�IROLDWLRQ�RU�WKH�GRPLQDQW�MRLQW�VHW�UHODWLYH�WR�WKH�VWULNH�RI�WKH�VORSH��)LYH�GLIIHUHQW�MRLQWLQJ�SDWWHUQV�ZHUH�QRWHG�
��
�ILJXUH�����6ORSH�KHLJKWV�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�QDWXUDO�VORSHV�LQ�1RUZD\��SORWWHG�IRU�GLIIHUHQW�URFN�W\SHV�DQG�GLIIHUHQW�MRLQWLQJ�SDWWHUQV�LQ�WKH�VORSHV�
• -RLQWV�VWULNLQJ�SDUDOOHO�WR�WKH�VORSH�EXW�GLSSLQJ�LQWR�WKH�VORSH�
• -RLQWV�VWULNLQJ�SDUDOOHO�WR�WKH�VORSH�EXW�GLSSLQJ�RXW�RI�WKH�VORSH�
• -RLQW�VWULNLQJ�SHUSHQGLFXODU�WR�WKH�VORSH�
• -RLQWV�VWULNLQJ�REOLTXH�WR�WKH�VORSH�
• -RLQWV�RULHQWHG�KRUL]RQWDOO\�([DPSOH�SORWV�RI�VORSH�KHLJKWV�DQG�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�GLIIHUHQW�URFN�W\SHV��URFN�VWUHQJWKV��DQG�MRLQWLQJ�SDWWHUQV�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������IRU�LJQHRXV�DQG�PHWDPRUSKLF�URFNV���)RU�WKH�PLFD�VFKLVW��GDWD�RQ�WKH�GLS�RI�WKH�GRPLQDQW�MRLQW�VHWV�ZHUH�DOVR�DYDLODEOH�DQG�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH�������)URP�WKLV��VRPH�EURDG�WUHQGV�FRXOG�EH�GLVWLQJXLVKHG��+LJKHU�DQG�VWHHSHU�VORSHV�ZHUH�
WUHQGV�FRXOG�EH�GLVWLQJXLVKHG��+LJKHU�DQG�VWHHSHU�VORSHV�ZHUH�IRXQG�IRU�KLJKHU�URFN�VWUHQJWKV��+RZHYHU��WKHUH�ZHUH�DOVR�VHYHUDO�FDVHV�RI�IDLOHG�VORSHV�ZLWK�IODWWHU�VORSH�DQJOHV�WKDQ�WKRVH�RI�VWDEOH�VORSHV��PRVW�HYLGHQW�IRU�VWUHQJWK�FODVVHV�5��DQG�5��LQ�)LJXUH�������7KH�ODWWHU�LV�DQ�LQGLFDWLRQ�WKDW�IDFWRUV�RWKHU�WKDQ��URFN�VWUHQJWK��JRYHUQ�IDLOXUH��DQG�VWDELOLW\��RI�WKHVH�VORSHV��,Q�DGGLWLRQ�WR�WKH�REYLRXV��VXFK�DV�SXUH�VWUXFWXUDO�FRQWURO��WKLV�LQFOXGHV��EORFN�VL]H��MRLQW�VWUHQJWK�YHUVXV�URFN�VWUHQJWK��DQG�WKH�UDWLR�EHWZHHQ�MRLQW�OHQJWKV�DQG�LQWDFW�URFN�EULGJHV��LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�VORSH�KHLJKW���2WKHU�VWXGLHV��VXFK�DV�WKRVH�E\�&RDWHV���������������KDYH�VXJJHVWHG�WKDW�WKH�GLIIHUHQFH�EHWZHHQ�VORSHV�LQ�GLIIHUHQW�URFNV�GHFUHDVHV�DV�WKH�VORSH�KHLJKW�LQFUHDVHV��$OWKRXJK�WKLV�DSSHDUV�UHDVRQDEOH��VXFK�FRQFOXVLRQV�FDQQRW�EH�GUDZQ�IURP�WKH�FXUUHQWO\�DYDLODEOH�PDWHULDO��DV�WKHUH�LV�WRR�OLWWOH�GDWD�RQ�KLJKHU�VORSHV��
��
�ILJXUH������6ORSH�KHLJKWV�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�QDWXUDO�VORSHV�LQ�PLFD�VFKLVW�DQG�IRU�GLIIHUHQW�RULHQWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�GRPLQDQW�MRLQW�VHW�
��
�ILJXUH������6ORSH�KHLJKWV�YHUVXV�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�VHOHFWHG�FDVH�VWXGLHV�VLPLODU�WR���D��7KH�$LWLN�IRRWZDOO�DQG��E��7KH�$LWLN�KDQJLQJ�ZDOO�
%DFN�$QDO\]HG�5RFN�0DVV�6WUHQJWK�'DWD�7KH�+RHN�%URZQ�IDLOXUH�FULWHULRQ��1R�PHWKRGV�H[LVW�WR�GLUHFWO\�GHWHUPLQH�WKH�ODUJH�VFDOH�URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK��&XUUHQWO\��URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK�HVWLPDWHV�UHO\�RQ�WKH�HPSLULFDO�+RHN�%URZQ�IDLOXUH�FULWHULRQ�XVHG�LQ�FRQMXQFWLRQ�ZLWK�URFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ��+RHN�DQG�%URZQ�������������%LHQLDZVNL��������7KLV�PHWKRGRORJ\�LV�ZHOO�HVWDEOLVKHG�EXW�LWV�DSSOLFDWLRQ�WR�VORSH�VWDELOLW\�LV�QRW�ZHOO�SURYHQ��7KH�FULWHULRQ�ZDV�RULJLQDOO\�SURSRVHG�E\�+RHN�DQG�%URZQ��������DQG�GHVFULEHG�LQ�GHWDLO�E\�+RHN���������6LQFH�WKHQ��LW�KDV�XQGHUJRQH�VHYHUDO�PLQRU�DQG�PDMRU�UHYLVLRQV��ZLWK�WKH�ODWHVW�YHUVLRQ�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�������+RHN�DQG�%URZQ��������7KH�FULWHULRQ�LV�ZULWWHQ�
��
:KHUH��
• 	��������� �PDMRU�HIIHFWLYH�SULQFLSDO�VWUHVV�
• 	��������� �PLQRU�HIIHFWLYH�SULQFLSDO�VWUHVV�
• 	�������F� �XQLD[LDO�FRPSUHVVLYH�VWUHQJWK�RI�LQWDFW�URFN�
• P� �FRQVWDQW�GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�WKH�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�URFN�PDVV�
• V� �FRQVWDQW�GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�WKH�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�URFN�PDVV�
• D� �FRQVWDQW�GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�WKH�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�URFN�PDVV��&RQVWDQWV�P��V��DQG�D�FDQ�EH�GHWHUPLQHG�IURP�URFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�UDWLQJV��,Q�HDUO\�YHUVLRQV�RI�WKH�FULWHULRQ��WKH�FRQVWDQW�D�ZDV�DOZD\V�VHW�WR������)XUWKHUPRUH��+RHN�DQG�%URZQ��������GLVWLQJXLVKHG�EHWZHHQ�XQGLVWXUEHG��LQWHUORFNLQJ��URFN�
�������GLVWLQJXLVKHG�EHWZHHQ�XQGLVWXUEHG��LQWHUORFNLQJ��URFN�PDVVHV�DQG�GLVWXUEHG�URFN�PDVVHV�ZKHQ�SURSRVLQJ�IRUPXODV�IRU�FDOFXODWLQJ�P�DQG�V��DV�IROORZV��
��
��
��
��
��
:KHUH��
• PL� �WKH�YDOXH�RI�P�IRU�WKH�LQWDFW�URFN�
• 505� �URFN�PDVV�UDWLQJ��%LHQLDZVNL���������
,Q�ODWHU�YHUVLRQV��RQO\�WKH�FDWHJRU\�XQGLVWXUEHG�URFN�PDVVHV�ZDV�XVHG�DQG�505�ZDV�UHSODFHG�E\�*6,��JHRORJLFDO�VWUHQJWK�LQGH[���*6,�FDQ��KRZHYHU��EH�GLUHFWO\�DVVHVVHG�XVLQJ�WKH������\HDU�YHUVLRQ�RI�505��%LHQLDZVNL��������'HSHQGLQJ�RQ�ZKDW�YHUVLRQ�RI�WKH�FULWHULRQ�RQH�XVHV��ODUJH�GLIIHUHQFHV�LQ�ILQDO�VWUHQJWK�YDOXHV�DUH�REWDLQHG��7KLV�DSSOLHV�SDUWLFXODUO\�WR�WKH�FKRLFH�RI�XQGLVWXUEHG�YHUVXV�GLVWXUEHG�VWUHQJWK�YDOXHV��8QIRUWXQDWHO\��WKH�PHDQLQJ�RI�WKHVH�FDWHJRULHV�LV�QRW�FOHDUO\�GHILQHG�LQ�WKH�SXEOLVKHG�ZRUNV�E\�+RHN�DQG�FR�ZRUNHUV���&RPSDULVRQ�ZLWK�%DFN�&DOFXODWHG�6WUHQJWKV�)RU�WKH�FDVHV�LQ�ZKLFK�VORSH�IDLOXUHV�KDG�RFFXUUHG��WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�EDFN�FDOFXODWLQJ�VWUHQJWK�YDOXHV�DW�IDLOXUH�H[LVWV��SURYLGHG�VXIILFLHQW�GHVFULSWLRQV�RI�WKH�PHFKDQLVP�RI�IDLOXUH�H[LVW��%DFN�DQDO\]HG�VWUHQJWKV�ZHUH�DYDLODEOH�IRU�D�IHZ�RI�WKH�PRUH�ZHOO�GRFXPHQWHG�FDVHV�LQ�WKH�GDWDEDVH��7KLV�LQFOXGHG�IDLOXUHV�RI�IRRWZDOOV�DQG�KDQJLQJ�ZDOOV�LQ�VXEOHYHO�FDYLQJ�PLQHV�LQ�6ZHGHQ�DV�ZHOO�DV�D�IHZ�RSHQ�SLW�VORSH�IDLOXUHV�DW�WKH�$]QDOFyOODU�0LQH��1RQH�RI�WKHVH�IDLOXUHV�ZHUH�SXUHO\�VWUXFWXUDOO\�FRQWUROOHG��5DWKHU��WKH\�GLVSOD\HG�WKH�W\SLFDO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�D�URFN�PDVV�VKHDU�IDLOXUH��RIWHQ�ZLWK�FXUYHG��QHDU�FLUFXODU�IDLOXUH�VXUIDFHV��&RQVHTXHQWO\��WKHVH�FDVHV�DUH�LQWHUHVWLQJ�WR�FRPSDUH�ZLWK�WKH�+RHN�%URZQ�DSSURDFK�WR�VWUHQJWK�HVWLPDWLRQ�IRU�URFN�
ZLWK�WKH�+RHN�%URZQ�DSSURDFK�WR�VWUHQJWK�HVWLPDWLRQ�IRU�URFN�PDVVHV���
WDEOH�����6XPPDU\�RI�EDFN�FDOFXODWHG�VWUHQJWKV�IURP�
0LQH�DQG�0LQLQJ� (OHPHQW� ,QWDFW�5RFN�6WUHQJWK�� 5RFN�0DVV�6WUHQJWK�� 9ROXPH� 505�ORZ�KLJK�6XEOHYHO�&DYLQJ�0LQHV�
0DOPEHUJHW� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����
0DOPEHUJHW� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
�������������� ������� ����
	�������
�����
*UlQJHVEHUJ� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����������
*UlQJHVEHUJ� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����������
*UlQJHVEHUJ� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����������
*UlQJHVEHUJ� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����������
*UlQJHVEHUJ� +:���
%UHZHU\�
������ ������� ��� ���
.LLUXQDYDDUD� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
������ ������� ����
	�������
�����������
.LLUXQDYDDUD� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
�������������� ����������������� ����
	�������
�����������
.LLUXQDYDDUD� +DQJLQJ�
ZDOO�
�������������� ����������������� ����
	�������
�����������
.LLUXQDYDDUD� )RRWZDOO� �������������� ����������������� ����
	�������
�����
.LLUXQDYDDUD� )RRWZDOO� �������������� ����������������� ����
	�������
�����
2SHQ�3LW�0LQHV�
2SHQ�3LW�0LQHV�
$]QDOFROODU��
&HQWUDO�
IRRWZDOO� �����������
������������
��������
����
	�������
����
�����������
$]QDOFROODU��
&HQWUDO�
IRRWZDOO� �����������
������������
��������
����
	�������
����
�����������
$]QDOFROODU��
&HQWUDO�
IRRWZDOO�
�����������
������������
��������
����
	�������
����
�����������
$]QDOFROODU��
&HQWUDO�
IRRWZDOO� �����������
������������
��������
����
	�������
����
�����������
$]QDOFROODU��
(DVWHUQ�
IRRWZDOO� �����������
������������
��������
����
	�������
����
�����������
��
�ILJXUH������&RPSDULVRQV�RI�EDFN�FDOFXODWHG�VWUHQJWK�YDOXHV�DQG�SUHGLFWHG�VWUHQJWKV�XVLQJ�WKH�+RHN�%URZQ�FULWHULRQ�IRU�QRUPDOL]HG�URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK��ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�LQWDFW�URFN�VWUHQJWK��YHUVXV�505��URFN�PDVVUDWLQJ��%LHQLDZVNL�������
��
:KHUH��
• 	�������FP� �URFN�PDVV�FRPSUHVVLYH�VWUHQJWK�
• F� �URFN�PDVV�FRKHVLRQ�
• 	������� �URFN�PDVV�IULFWLRQ�DQJOH���
$�VXPPDU\�RI�WKH�EDFN�FDOFXODWHG�VWUHQJWK�YDOXHV�DQG�URFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�UDWLQJV�IRU�WKHVH�FDVHV�LV�JLYHQ�LQ�7DEOH������$�IXOO�GHVFULSWLRQ�RI�HDFK�RI�WKH�VWXGLHG�FDVHV��LQFOXGLQJ�UHOHYDQW�UHIHUHQFHV��LV�JLYHQ�LQ�6M|EHUJ���������7KH�URFN�PDVV�FRPSUHVVLYH�VWUHQJWK�FDQ�EH�QRUPDOL]HG�ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�WKH�
FRPSUHVVLYH�VWUHQJWK�FDQ�EH�QRUPDOL]HG�ZLWK�UHVSHFW�WR�WKH�XQLD[LDO�FRPSUHVVLYH�VWUHQJWK�RI�LQWDFW�URFN�	�������F��7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�UDWLR�LV�H[SUHVVHG��+RHN�DQG�%URZQ�������
��
8VLQJ�(T�������LW�LV�SRVVLEOH�WR�FDOFXODWH�WKH�YDOXH�RI�WKH�SDUDPHWHU�V�LQ�WKH�+RHN�%URZQ�IDLOXUH�FULWHULRQ�GLUHFWO\�IURP�IDLOXUH�VWUHQJWKV��FI��(T������WKURXJK�������7KH�VTXDUH�URRW�RI�V�FDQ�EH�LQWHUSUHWHG�DV�D�VFDOH�IDFWRU�IRU�WKH�URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK���,W�PXVW�EH�QRWHG��KRZHYHU��WKDW�WKH�SDUDPHWHU�V�DOVR�GHSHQGV�RQ�WKH�MRLQWLQJ�RI�WKH�URFN�PDVV����
6XPPDU\�DQG�&RQFOXVLRQV�
7KH�FDVH�VWXG\�GDWDEDVH�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�LV�D�VLJQLILFDQW�XSGDWH�RI�SUHYLRXVO\�DYDLODEOH�FDVH�VWXG\�LQIRUPDWLRQ��7KH�GDWDEDVH�SULPDULO\�LQFOXGHV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�VORSH�KHLJKWV�DQG�VORSH�DQJOHV�IRU�VWDEOH�DQG�IDLOHG�URFN�VORSHV��)URP�WKLV��SUHOLPLQDU\�JXLGHOLQHV�IRU�WKH�GHVLJQ�RI�WKH�$LWLN�KDUG�URFN�PLQH�LQ�QRUWKHUQ�6ZHGHQ�ZHUH�GHULYHG��6LPLODU�JXLGHOLQHV�FRXOG�EH�GHYHORSHG�IRU�RWKHU�JHRORJLFDO�HQYLURQPHQWV�XVLQJ�WKH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�GDWDEDVH��7KLV�ZDV�RXWVLGH�WKH�VFRSH�RI�WKLV�ZRUN��KRZHYHU��WKH�GDWDEDVH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�LV�DYDLODEOH�IURP�WKH�DXWKRU�IRU�RWKHUV�WR�SXUVXH�WKLV�ZRUN���
$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV�
7KH�PDMRULW\�RI�WKH�ZRUN�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�WKLV�FKDSWHU�LV�WKH�UHVXOW�RI�D�IRXU�\HDU�MRLQW�UHVHDUFK�SURMHFW�EHWZHHQ�%ROLGHQ�0LQHUDO�$%�DQG�WKH�'LYLVLRQ�RI�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��/XOHn�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�7HFKQRORJ\��7KH�UHVHDUFK�SURMHFW�ZDV�VSRQVRUHG�H[FOXVLYHO\�E\�%ROLGHQ�0LQHUDO�$%��ZKLFK�LV�JUDWHIXOO\�DFNQRZOHGJHG��7KH�DXWKRU�LV�DOVR�LQGHEWHG�WR�WKH�SURMHFW�VXSHUYLVLRQ�JURXS�IRU�WKHLU�JUHDW�LQWHUHVW�DQG�IUXLWIXO�GLVFXVVLRQV��7KLV�JURXS�FRQVLVWHG�RI�'U��(UOLQJ�1RUGOXQG��/XOHn�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�7HFKQRORJ\��0U��1RUEHUW�.UDXODQG��IRUPHUO\�DW�%ROLGHQ�0LQHUDO�$%��DQG�3URIHVVRU�:LOOLDP�+XVWUXOLG��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�8WDK��3URIHVVRU�+XVWUXOLG�ZDV�+HDG�RI�0LQLQJ�5HVHDUFK�DQG�'HYHORSPHQW�DW�/.$%��.LUXQD��GXULQJ�WKH�PDLQ�SRUWLRQ�RI�WKH�SURMHFW���$GGLWLRQDO�ZRUN�KDV�EHHQ�FRQGXFWHG�UHFHQWO\�DV�SDUW�RI�RQJRLQJ�UHVHDUFK�DQG�GHYHORSPHQW�ZLWKLQ�%ROLGHQ�0LQHUDO�$%��7KH�VXSSRUW�IRU�WKLV�WKURXJK�FRUSRUDWH�UHVHDUFK�DQG�GHYHORSPHQW�IXQGLQJ�LV�JUDWHIXOO\�DFNQRZOHGJHG��)LQDOO\��PLQH�VWDII�DW�WKH�YLVLWHG�SURSHUWLHV�DQG�FRQVXOWDQWV�ZRUNLQJ�RQ�WKRVH�SURSHUWLHV�KDYH�
SURSHUWLHV�DQG�FRQVXOWDQWV�ZRUNLQJ�RQ�WKRVH�SURSHUWLHV�KDYH�EHHQ�WUHPHQGRXVO\�KHOSIXO�LQ�VKDULQJ�LQIRUPDWLRQ�WR�WKLV�VWXG\��QRQH�PHQWLRQHG��QRQH�IRUJRWWHQ����
5()(5(1&(6�
%LHQLDZVNL��=�7��������5RFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�LQ�URFN�HQJLQHHULQJ��3URFHHGLQJV�([SORUDWLRQ�IRU�5RFN�(QJLQHHULQJ��-RKDQQHVEXUJ�����������
%URFK��(���DQG�%��1LOVHQ��������8QGHUV¡NHOVHU�DY�VWDELOLWHWVIRUKROGHQH�IRU��UWIMHOO�GDJEUXGG�L�5DQD��1RUJH���3URFHHGLQJV�%HUJPHNDQLNGDJHQ���������3DSHUV�SUHVHQWHG�DW�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV�PHHWLQJ��6WRFNKROP��6ZHGHQ���������LQ�1RUZHJLDQ���
%URZQ��(�7���HG��������5RFN�FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ�WHVWLQJ�	�PRQLWRULQJ��,650�6XJJHVWHG�0HWKRGV��2[IRUG��3HUJDPRQ�3UHVV��
&KHQ��=������D��.H\QRWH�OHFWXUH��5HFHQW�GHYHORSPHQWV�LQ�VORSH�VWDELOLW\�DQDO\VLV��3URFHHGLQJV��WK�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RQJUHVV�RQ�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��7RN\R����������������
&KHQ��=���HGLWRU�LQ�FKLHI������E��7UDQVDFWLRQ�RI�WKH�VWDELOLW\�DQDO\VHV�DQG�VRIWZDUH�IRU�VWHHS�VORSHV�LQ�&KLQD��9ROXPH������5RFN�FODVVLILFDWLRQ��VWDWLVWLFV�DQG�GDWDEDVH�RI�IDLOHG�DQG�VWDEOH�VORSHV��&KLQD�,QVWLWXWH�RI�:DWHU�5HVRXUFHV�DQG�+\GURHOHFWULF�3RZHU�5HVHDUFK��LQ�&KLQHVH����
&RDWHV��'�)��������3LW�VORSH�PDQXDO�&KDSWHU����'HVLJQ��&$10(7��&DQDGD�&HQWUH�IRU�0LQHUDO�DQG�(QHUJ\�7HFKQRORJ\���&$10(7�5(3257�������
&RDWHV��'�)��������5RFN�PHFKDQLFV�SULQFLSOHV��&$10(7��(QHUJ\��0LQHV�DQG�5HVRXUFHV�&DQDGD��0RQRJUDSK������SS������WR�������%���WR�%������
'DKO¡��7�6��������(PSLULVN�DQDO\VH�DY�VWDELOLWHW�L�QDWXUOLJH�IMHOOVNUnQLQJHU��([DPHQVDUEHLG��1RUJHV�WHNQLVNH�K¡JVNROH��7URQGKHLP��LQ�1RUZHJLDQ����
'DKO¡��7�6��������3HUVRQDO�FRPPXQLFDWLRQ���
'DKQpU�/LQGTYLVW��&��������/LJJYlJJVVWDELOLWHWHQ�L�.LLUXQDYDDUD��3URFHHGLQJV�%HUJPHNDQLNGDJHQ�������3DSHUV�SUHVHQWHG�DW�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV�PHHWLQJ��6WRFNKROP��6ZHGHQ���������LQ�6ZHGLVK����
'DKQpU�/LQGTYLVW��&��������3HUVRQDO�FRPPXQLFDWLRQ���
'DO\��6���:�.��0XQUR��DQG�3�)��6WDFH\��������6ORSH�VWDELOLW\�VWXGLHV�IRU�WKH�/RUQH[�3LW����WK�&,0�'LVWULFW�6L[�0HHWLQJ��)HUQLH��6HSW�����WR�2FW�����������
'XUDQ��$���DQG�.��'RXJODV��������'R�VORSHV�GHVLJQHG�ZLWK�HPSLULFDO�URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK�FULWHULD�VWDQG�XS"�3URFHHGLQJV��WK�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RQJUHVV�RQ�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��3DULV�����������
+DLQHV��$��DQG�3�-��7HUEUXJJH��������3UHOLPLQDU\�HVWLPDWLRQ�RI�URFN�VORSH�VWDELOLW\�XVLQJ�URFN�PDVV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�V\VWHPV��3URFHHGLQJV��WK�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RQJUHVV�RQ�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��$DFKHQ�������������
+HOJVWHGW��0�'��������$Q�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�LQ�VLWX�VKHDU�VWUHQJWK�RI�URFN�PDVVHV�DQG�GLVFRQWLQXLWLHV��0DVWHU�RI�6FLHQFH�7KHVLV����������&,9��'LYLVLRQ�RI�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��/XOHn�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�7HFKQRORJ\��
+RHN��(��������6WUHQJWK�RI�MRLQWHG�URFN�PDVVHV��*pRWHFKQLTXH����������������
+RHN��(���DQG�-�:��%UD\��������5RFN�VORSH�HQJLQHHULQJ��/RQGRQ�,QVWLWXWLRQ�RI�0LQLQJ�DQG�0HWDOOXUJ\��+RHN��(���DQG�(�7��%URZQ��������8QGHUJURXQG�H[FDYDWLRQV�LQ�URFN��/RQGRQ�,QVWLWXWLRQ�RI�0LQLQJ�DQG�0HWDOOXUJ\��
+RHN��(���DQG�(�7��%URZQ��������7KH�+RHN�%URZQ�IDLOXUH�FULWHULRQ��$������XSGDWH��3URFHHGLQJV���WK�&DQDGLDQ�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV�6\PSRVLXP��7RURQWR����������
+RHN��(���DQG�(�7��%URZQ��������3UDFWLFDO�HVWLPDWHV�RI�URFN�PDVV�VWUHQJWK��,QWO��-RXU��5RFN�0HFK��0LQ��6FL�������������������
-HQQLQJV��-�(���DQG�2�.�+��6WHIIHQ��������7KH�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�VWDELOLW\�RI�VORSHV�LQ�GHHS�RSHQFDVW�PLQHV��7UDQV��6��$IU��,QVW��&LYLO�(QJ��������������
/DXEVFKHU��'�+��������*HRPHFKDQLFV�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�RI�MRLQWHG�URFN�PDVVHV��0LQLQJ�DSSOLFDWLRQV��7UDQV��,QVW��0LQ��0HWDOO���6HFW��$��0LQ��,QGXVWU\������$��$����
/XWWRQ��5�-��������5RFN�VORSH�FKDUW�IURP�HPSLULFDO�GHVLJQ��7UDQV��6RFLHW\�RI�0LQLQJ�(QJLQHHUV���������������
1LOVHQ��%��������6WDELOLWHW�DY�K|\H�IMHOOVNM ULQJHU��7KH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�7URQGKHLP��7KH�1RUZHJLDQ�,QVWLWXWH�RI�7HFKQRORJ\��5HSRUWV�IURP�WKH�'HSDUWPHQW�RI�*HRORJ\��LQ�1RUZHJLDQ���
3DULVHDX��:�*���DQG�%��9RLJKW��������5RFNVOLGHV�DQG�DYDODQFKHV��%DVLF�SULQFLSOHV�DQG�SHUVSHFWLYHV�LQ�WKH�UHDOP�RI�FLYLO�DQG�PLQLQJ�RSHUDWLRQV��,Q�5RFNVOLGHV�DQG�DYDODQFKHV�����(QJLQHHULQJ�VLWHV��HG��%��9RLJKW��$PVWHUGDP��(OVHYLHU�3XEOLVKLQJ�&RPSDQ\��
3HQGHU��0�-���DQG�0�:��)UHH��������6WDELOLW\�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�VORSHV�LQ�FORVHO\�MRLQWHG�URFN�PDVVHV��3URFHHGLQJV�6DIHW\�DQG�(QYLURQPHQWDO�,VVXHV�LQ�5RFN�(QJLQHHULQJ��(XURFN�
����/LVERQ��3RUWXJDO��SS�����������
5HDG��6�$�/���DQG�1�'��3HUULQ��������$SSOLFDELOLW\�RI�WKH�+RHN�%URZQ�IDLOXUH�FULWHULRQ�WR�1HZ�=HDODQG�JUH\ZDFNH�URFNV��3URFHHGLQJV��WK�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RQJUHVV�RQ�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��3DULV�������������
6M|EHUJ��-��������$QDO\VLV�RI�ODUJH�VFDOH�URFN�VORSHV��'RFWRUDO�WKHVLV����������'LYLVLRQ�RI�5RFN�0HFKDQLFV��/XOHn�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�7HFKQRORJ\���
8OXVD\��5���DQG�+��$NVR\��������$VVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�IDLOXUH�PHFKDQLVP�RI�D�KLJKZDOO�VORSH�XQGHU�VSRLO�SLOH�ORDGLQJV�DW�D�FRDO�PLQH��(QJLQHHULQJ�*HRORJ\��������������
�
���%ROLGHQ�0LQHUDO�$%��%ROLGHQ��6ZHGHQ����

Continue navegando