BCG Live Session 13 - COVID-19

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June 12th, 2020
BCG Live Session #13:
How to react to COVID-19 
impacts?
1
Agenda
Bionic Resilience
COVID-19 impact in the economy
COVID-19 evolution update
2
COVID-19 evolution update
3
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Critical care 
patients
Time
Healthcare
system 
capacity
Re-start Cure
Recap: Three phases of the COVID-19 development
GDP
Flatten Fight Future
Note: Flags intended to illustrate each country phase and are not in scale.
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Press search; IBGE; Google Community Mobility; BCG analysis
4
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
COVID-19 has spread across the world; different countries 
in different phases 
0
100
200
300
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Days after 100th case per 1M hab. 
Daily new confirmed cases per 1M hab. (7-day moving average)
Note: Countries shown on the graph have more than 1.000 reported confirmed cases
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, United Nations, BCG Analysis
Disclaimer: Reported cases may be 
underestimated given low number of testing
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Data as of 11 June
Brazil with slower initial spread, but not yet flattening the curve
~7.5M cases
~422k deaths
World
Brazil
~806k cases
~41k deaths
Brazil
US
Italy S. Korea
Chile
Germany
6
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Covid-19 growing at different pace across Brazilian states
Note: Non-linear scale
Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis
New daily COVID-19 cases/1M habs (7 days moving average) Data as of 10 June
Disclaimer: Reported cases may be 
underestimated given low number of testing
400+0
Peak ~70 Peak ~170
8
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and considerationfor the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Negative growth and lower 
demand of health system
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Active cases 
stability
Active cases 
doubling: 4 days
Active cases 
doubling: 7 days
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
1.00.1 10.0
AC
ES
Average daily growth of reported active cases (7-day moving average)
AM
APDF
PI
GO
SC
PB
MA
MG MS
MT
SP
PA
PE
PR
AL
RJ
RS
RN
RO
CE
RRBA
SE TO
5.0
!
Active cases / ICU Beds (log)
20.0
~20% of reported 
cases may demand 
some care¹
~5% of reported 
cases may demand 
critical care¹
!
Note: Tests per reported case data as of: April 22 for SP, April 23 for RR, April 27 for AL, AM, GO and MS, April 28 for AP and DF, April 30 for PA, May 06 for PE, May 07 for PI, May 17 for PR, May 18 for MG, 
MT, SC and SE, May 19 for AC, BA, CE, ES, RO and TO, May 27 for PB and RS; ICU beds data as of May 06; Active cases considers the confirmed cases excluding the people who have died or recovered. Number 
of people who recovered was not available in the state of GO and were computed using the avg. % of recovered cases in Brazil 1. Based on study of 44,672 confirmed cases in Mainland China
Source: Ministry of Health; States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE, China Center for Disease Control (CCDC); Worldometer; BCG Analysis 
Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system 
capacity in many states (I/III)
Data as of May 28th
61% of GDP
0% of GDP
36% of GDP 3% of GDP
# of reported active cases
9
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Negative growth and lower 
demand of health system
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Active cases 
stability
Active cases 
doubling: 4 days
Active cases 
doubling: 7 days
0.1 1 1005.0
!
Active cases / ICU Beds (log)
20.0
~20% of reported 
cases may demand 
some care¹
~5% of reported 
cases may demand 
critical care¹
!
Active cases considers the confirmed cases excluding the people who have died or recovered. Number of people who recovered was not available in the state of GO and were computed using the avg. % of 
recovered cases in Brazil 1. Based on study of 44,672 confirmed cases in Mainland China 2. Ceará reported more than 9,000 new cases in May 31 after a mass release of PCR tests results 3.RR active cases/beds 
is 125, plotted as 100 because of the scale
Source: Ministry of Health; States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE, China Center for Disease Control (CCDC); Worldometer; BCG Analysis 
Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system 
capacity in many states (II/III) 
Data as of June 4th
51% of GDP
0% of GDP
42% of GDP 7% of GDP
10.0
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
RJ
AM
AP
BA
DF
PI
ES
GO
MA
MG
CE2
MS
MT
PA
RS
PE
PB
RO
RN
PR
Average daily growth of reported active cases (7-day moving average)
AC
SP
RR3
SC
SE
AL
TO
# of reported active cases
10
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Negative growth and lower 
demand of health system
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Active cases 
stability
Active cases 
doubling: 4 days
Active cases 
doubling: 7 days
0.1 1 1005.0
!
20.0
~20% of reported 
cases may demand 
some care¹
~5% of reported 
cases may demand 
critical care¹
!
Note: Ministry of Health changed the way the number of cases and deaths are reported, creating uncertainty about the data. We're using data from States Health Secretaries whenever possible to avoid 
inconsistencies; Active cases considers the confirmed cases excluding the people who have died or recovered. Number of people who recovered was not available in the state of GO and were computed using 
the avg. % of recovered cases in Brazil. RN, MS and TO data as of June 10; 1. Based on study of 44,672 confirmed cases in Mainland China 2. RR active cases/beds is 190, plotted as 100 because of the scale
Source: States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE, China Center for Disease Control (CCDC); Worldometer; BCG Analysis 
Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system 
capacity in many states (III/III)
Data as of June 11th
56% of GDP
17% of GDP
21% of GDP 6% of GDP
10.0
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
Average daily growth of reported active cases (7-day moving average)
AL
SP
AP
PB
BARS CE
DF
ES
GO
MA
MG MS MT
PA
PE
PI
PR
RJ AM
RN
RO
RR2
ACSC
SE
TO
# of reported active cases
Active cases / ICU Beds (log)
11
BCGBrazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Negative growth and lower 
demand of health system
Higher demand of 
health system
Higher growth but lower 
demand of health system
Active cases 
stability
Active cases 
doubling: 4 days
Active cases 
doubling: 7 days
0.1 1 1005.0
!
Active cases / ICU Beds (log)
Week over week change in daily new confirmed cases (7-day moving average) : # of reported active cases<-25% 0-25%-25-0% >25%
20.0
~20% of reported 
cases may demand 
some care¹
~5% of reported 
cases may demand 
critical care¹
!
Note: Ministry of Health changed the way the number of cases and deaths are reported, creating uncertainty about the data. We're using data from States Health Secretaries whenever possible to avoid 
inconsistencies; Active cases considers the confirmed cases excluding the people who have died or recovered. Number of people who recovered was not available in the state of GO and were computed using 
the avg. % of recovered cases in Brazil. RN, MS and TO data as of June 10; 1. Based on study of 44,672 confirmed cases in Mainland China 2. RR active cases/beds is 190, plotted as 100 because of the scale
Source: States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE, China Center for Disease Control (CCDC); Worldometer; BCG Analysis 
Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system 
capacity in many states (III/III)
Data as of June 11th
56% of GDP
17% of GDP
21% of GDP 6% of GDP
10.0
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
AC
Average daily growth of reported active cases (7-day moving average)
BARS
AP
CE
DF
ES
MA
MG
PI
SEMT
PA
PB
PE
PR
RJ
RN
RO
GO AL
SP
AM
RR2
SC TO
MS
13
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in 
COVID-19 spread
Outbreak moving to new 
regions away from capitals 
and metropolitan areas
Rapid spread of COVID-19 in 
socioeconomically vulnerable 
neighborhoods
14
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in 
COVID-19 spread
Outbreak moving to new 
regions away from capitals 
and metropolitan areas
Rapid spread of COVID-19 in 
socioeconomically vulnerable 
neighborhoods
15
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this documentfor any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
In many states, outbreak spreading outside capitals
Disclaimer: Reported cases may be 
underestimated given low number of testing
New daily COVID-19 cases/1M habs (7 days moving average) Data as of 10 June
State Capitals Rest of the State
Note: Non-linear scale
Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis
400+0
Peak ~70 Peak ~170
16
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
São Paulo state as of June, 9th
In SP state, spread continued to smaller cities; main 
growth focus now located outside the capital
Note: Only cities with more than 50 confirmed cases were considered 1. Cities with an average daily growth in number of confirmed cases in the last 7 
days greater or equal 5%, considering only cities with more than 50 confirmed cases
Source: Secretaries of health; BCG Analysis
São Paulo state as of May, 08th São Paulo state as of May, 21st
Data as of June 9
Avg. daily growth (7-day moving avg.)
10%0%# of confirmed cases
# of cities w/ 50+ 
conf. cases
# of cities w/ daily 
growth >5%1
% of total confirmed 
cases in the capital
55
33
61%
85
19
54%
150
47
48%
17
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
As a consequence, SP strengthened restriction measures in 
many regions (DRSs) across the state 
Status as of June 10th Status starting June 15th
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Phase 1
Presidente
Prudente
Araçatuba
S. José do 
Rio Preto Barretos Franca
Ribeirão Preto
Araraquara
S. J. da Boa Vista
Taubaté
São Paulo
Registro
Sorocaba
Campinas
Marília
Bauru
Piracicaba
Franca
Ribeirão Preto
Araraquara
S. J. da Boa Vista
Taubaté
Santos
São Paulo
Campinas
Presidente
Prudente
Araçatuba
S. José do 
Rio Preto Barretos
Registro
Sorocaba
Marília
Bauru
Piracicaba
Santos
1. Only São Paulo city was on Phase 2 in the Grande São Paulo DRS as of June 10th Note: DRS: Departamento Regional de Saúde
Source: State Government announcement on June 10th
18
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in 
COVID-19 spread
Outbreak moving to new 
regions away from capitals 
and metropolitan areas
Rapid spread of COVID-19 in 
socioeconomically vulnerable 
neighborhoods
19
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentationis not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
COVID gradually spread toward cities with high population density 
and high percentual of low income population
Historical Increase of reported cases by city (segmented by its population density and % of low income population)
20 8040 60
% of low income population1
in the city
4020 60 80
% of low income population1
in the city
20 40 60 80
% of low income population1
in the city
20
40
60
40 60 80
20
80
100
% of low income population1
in the city
% 
of
 c
it
y 
po
pu
la
ti
on
 li
vi
ng
 in
 h
ig
h 
de
ns
it
y 
ar
ea
s 
(>
50
00
 i
nh
ab
./
km
²)
07/Mar – 01/Apr 01/Apr – 21/Apr 21/Apr – 14/May 14/May – 07/Jun 
1. Low income define as households of classes D2 and E, according to IBGE criteria
Source: IBGE, States Health Secretaries; BCG Analysis
% Increase 
of cases
Higher density
Higher income
Higher density
Lower income
Lower density
Lower income
Lower density
Higher income
20
COVID-19 impact in the 
economy
21
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
COVID-19 hit hard the global economy in Q1 2020
Sources: OECD; World Input Output Database
Overall negative impact on GDP across 
countries
Change in Q1 2020 GDP vs. Q1 2019
Varying negative impact on sectors –
exception of health and social assistance 
Estimated impact of decrease in global demand on 
2020 GDP by sector of economic activity (%) 
-15,9%
-12,3%
-12,1%
-11,1%
-10,8%
-10,3%
-9,0%
-7,2%
-5,4%
-5,4%
-5,2%
-4,6%
-3,7%
-3,5%
2,3%
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Food and beverages
Accomodation and food
Water transportantion
Ground transportation
Petrochemical
Retail
Air transportation
Logistics
Electricity and gas
Advertising and marketing
Financial services
Administrative services
Fishing and acquaculture
Agriculture
Health and social assistance
Above 1.5%
0 to 1.5%
-1.5% to 0%
-3.0 to -1.5%
-6.0 to -3.0%
Less than -6.0%
No data
23
Macroeconomic 
indicators show 
a deteriorated 
situation in 
Brazil, specially 
in Q2
1. Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus 2. Quarterly moving average
Source: Ipea; JPM; IBGE; Tradingeconomics; BCG Analysis
Brazil manufacturing PMI
Country risk (EMBI+1)
Unemployment rate2 (%)
Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
All-time 
low
52
48
36 38
30
40
50
60
Feb-20Dec-19Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
225
476 473
0
500
Dec-19Sep-19 Nov-19 Mar-20Oct-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20May-20
11,6%
12,2% 12,6%
10
12
14
Oct-19Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
24
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Services and industry sectors hit harder in the first quarter
1. Includes taxes contribution, which contributed with +0,1% to GDP growth in Q1 2. Composed of: activities from associative organizations, equipment 
repair and maintenance (personal and domestic), personal services (laundries, beauty treatment and salons, funeral activities, etc) 
Source: IBGE
75,6%
10,3%
6,9%
3,3%
13,5%
3,3%
4,1%
17,5%
16,8%
16,6%
3,0%
3,5%
10,1%
7,8%
-0,47%
1,60%
2,00%
1,30%
-0,40%
-1,80%
-1,60%
-0,40%
-3,40%
0,03%
4,80%
-1,00%
-0,80%
0,60%
Change in Q1 2020 GDP 
vs. Q1 2019 by sector (%)
Service
Industry
Q1 2020 GDP 
composition1 by sector (%)
Agriculture
Brazil
-0,47%
0,17%
0,14%
0,04%
-0,05%
-0,06%
-0,07%
-0,07%
-0,57%
0,03%
0,15%
-0,03%
-0,08%
0,05%
Information and communication
Transportation, storage and mail
Overall for Service
Financial and related activities
Agriculture
Real estate activity
Commerce
Overall for Industry
Electricity, gas, water and residue mgmt.
Adm, defense, health and social secutiry
Other services2
Extractive industry
Civil construction
Transformation industry
Sectors by category
Contribution by sector change 
in Q1 2020GDP (%)
-0.3%1
25
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Agriculture: Sharp increase in exports driven mainly by 
soybeans 
0.0
10.0
2.0
4.0
8.0
6.0
12.0
Jan Feb AprMar
+25%
Exports - 2019
Imports - 2020Exports - 2020
Imports - 2019
Brazilian monthly export and import on 
agriculture (B US$)
1,284
912
522
Others (-14%)
411
3,857
Apr - 2020
6,104
Meat (+1%)
1,266
359
1,159
8,180
Forest product ( -21%)
10,221
Soybeans (+58%)
Sugar cane (+45%)
Coffee (+6%)
Apr - 2019
389
1,149 988
Total export by product Apr 2019 
vs 2020 (B US$)
Overall production and exports 
grew, while import remained stable
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply, Brazil; Press search; BCG analysis 
Growth in export promoted by 
soybeans…
Highest crop given extensive 
investment, preparation and 
favorable climate
Continuity in global demand 
for agricultura products, 
driven mainly by China
Higher competitiveness given 
devaluation of BRL (e.g. 
lower logistical costs in US$)
Operational continuity of 
logistic companies, carriers 
and ports
… Driven both by supply and 
demand aspects
26
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Industry: Progressive decrease in industrial activities 
observed in durable and capital goods
90,2% 81,1% 74,5%
24,8% 20,5% 12,5%
90,3%
76,7% 78,5% 79,6%
88,3% 78,6%
VehiclesCellulose
and paper
Pharmaceutical Food Leather and 
footwear
Clothing
April 2020 Average1
Utilization rate of installed capacity (%)
1. From January 2001 to march 2020 
Source: FGV – IBRE, Pesquisa industrial Mensal – Produção Física IBGE
-50
0
Consumer goods
Mar 20Deb 20
Capital goods
Apr 20Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20
Intermediate goods
Durable goods
Semi and non durable goods
Monthly variation of production by economic industrial 
category (%)
Durable goods severely hit – Closure of plants 
given social distancing measures 
0 to 2.5%
-10 to 0%
-20% to -10%
-30 to -20%
-40 to -30%
Less than -40%
No data
Variety of negative impact among Brazilian 
states – few exceptions
April vs. March 2020 variation of production by economic 
industrial category (%)
2.5 to 5.0%
27
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Services: Weak signs of demand recovery so far
1. Base: Sunday, Feb 2nd 2. Normalized by total web traffic per country and day
Source: Cielo; SimilarWeb (www.similarweb.com); BCG Analysis
Revenues on physical channels have not yet 
returned to previous levels
-92%
-85%
-80% -66%
01-Apr01-Mar
0%
01-May 01-Jun
50%
-50%
-100%
Change in Revenues in POS (%)¹
-82%
-67%
-57%
-14%
-26%
-31%
01-May01-Feb 01-Apr01-Mar 01-Jun
-100%
-50%
0%
+50%
Change in normalized visits (7-day rolling avg.)²
+22%
Online, searches for Tourism-related terms are 
still low; Restaurants & Delivery remained high
Bar & RestaurantsTravel & Tourism Acc. & Hotels Restaurants & Delivery
Banking
TelcoAir Travel
Car Rentals
Insurance
demand
sentinel
30
Setor IT PT ES DE FR DK BR
Air Travel -63% -59% -64% -53% -54% -45% -67%
Car Rentals -52% -46% -56% -34% -25% -30% -57%
Acc. & Hotels -52% -40% -56% -39% -26% -28% -82%
Banking C&L -8% -15% 147% -24% -19% -22% -26%
Restaurants & 
Delivery
-15% -42% -30% 7% -37% 4% 22%
Jewelry & Luxury -18% -23% -43% -6% 17% -10% 27%
Insurance 14% -23%-3% -26% -26% 145% -31%
Telco 1% -17% -25% -10% -7% -7% -14%
Beverages -9% -3% -17% 14% -6% 62% -12%
Marketplace -9% -6% -11% -2% 3% 9% 18%
Cons. Electronics 12% -7% -5% -10% 22% -1% 11%
Groceries -3% -13% -14% 1% 20% 4% 14%
Automotive -10% 1% -39% 4% 16% 5% -23%
Medicine 1% 19% -2% -3% 5% 72% 41%
Fashion & Apparel -2% 7% 2% 4% 9% 15% 43%
Beauty & Cosm. 2% 21% 11% -6% 9% 31% 5%
Furniture -17% 37% 15% 2% 13% 34% 7%
IT PT ES DE FR DK BR
6% 8% 25% -4% 19% 5% -7%
24% 31% 20% -2% 21% 44% -9%
27% 17% 33% 6% 44% 23% 3%
12% 5% 16% 8% 10% 22% 9%
-1% 5% 11% 1% 4% 5% 12%
8% -4% -1% 2% 7% -8% 17%
2% 1% 6% 0% 4% -13% 5%
1% 3% 3% -2% 1% -1% 5%
1% 3% -6% -3% -2% -1% -8%
1% -4% -3% -3% 1% 0% 1%
-2% -6% -4% -2% 8% -2% -3%
0% -6% -1% -8% -6% 0% 3%
1% -2% 9% -1% 10% 3% -1%
-6% 1% -5% -1% -5% -4% -1%
-4% 3% 1% -2% 6% 8% 5%
2% -3% -8% -5% -2% -4% 7%
-11% 10% 6% -14% 2% -15% -4%
Change in normalized visits for 26 May-1 Jun vs. 27 Jan-2Feb Change in normalized visits for 26 May-1 Jun vs. 19 May-25 May
Web traffic vs. reference week Web traffic: Week-on-week
In Europe, sectors' demand affected differently by; 
recent movement indicates slow return to normal
Note: Normalized by total web traffic per country and day
Source: SimilarWeb (www.similarweb.com); BCG analysis 
Severe impact, 
but recovering
Severe impact, 
still struggling
Mid impact in 
some countries, 
slowly recovering
Positive impact, 
but returning
to normal
demand
sentinel
31
Deep dive: Fashion and Insurance in an upward trend in the 
early days after reopening of Spain and Italy
demand
sentinel
32
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
In China, industry and real estate sectors showing strong 
recovery indicators
Daily coal consumption1 (By May 28) Property transaction (By May 28)
1. Sum of Jerdin Electric, Guangdon Yudean Group, Datang International Power Generation, and Huaneng Power International, Inc 2. National containment plan started on Jan 28th
(Wuhan entered lockdown on Jan 23rd) 3. Return of low to medium transmission risk business (e.g.: manufacturing, trade, retail, etc).
Source: WIND, lit research, press research
30-15 90756015 10545 120
Days since Chinese New Year
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
66 days
26 days
CNY
Da
ily
 c
oa
l c
on
su
m
pt
io
n 
(1
0K
 t
on
s)
Tr
ad
ed
 a
re
a 
of
 b
ui
ld
in
gs
 i
n 
30
 c
it
ie
s
(1
0K
 s
q.
m
.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
75 10545-15 6015 30 90 120
Days since Chinese New Year
18 days
60 days
General
Re-start³
National 
containment²
General
Re-start³
National 
containment²
CNY
34
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Note: Analysis based on 2020 offline & O2O sales performance of retail panel in China with national coverage and expert input
Source: Retail panel, BCG analysis
Supermarkets Hypermarkets E-commerce
100
-50
-25
50
0
25
CNY + 4 
weeks 
(21 Feb 20)
Monthly sales % change y.o.y (CNY as starting day) 
4 weeks 
before CNY 
(25 Jan)
CNY + 8 
weeks 
(20 Mar 20)
CNY + 12 
weeks 
(17 Apr 20)
Early May
0
-50
-25
25
100
75
Early May4 weeks 
before CNY 
(25 Jan)
Monthly sales % change y.o.y (CNY as starting day) 
CNY + 4 
weeks 
(21 Feb 20)
CNY + 8 
weeks 
(20 Mar 20)
CNY + 12 
weeks 
(17 Apr 20)
Storable essentials - EdiblesStorable essentials - non-EdiblesDiscretionary - non-edibles Fresh and perishablesDiscretionary - edibles
50
100
0
150
Monthly sales % change y.o.y (January 1st as starting day) 
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Initial
outbreak
Turning
point
Resumption Initial
outbreak
Turning
point
Resumption
Growth of fresh and essentials reverting to normal whilst 
discretionary slowly recovering
35
Key takeaways 
regarding 
economic impact 
and recovery
Economic impact was heavier in China and Europe in Q1, where 
outbreak first reached
In Q2, impact likely to be more intense in the world, including in 
Brazil
Industry expected to be the most affected sector in Brazil, whilst 
Agriculture more resilient due to demand and supply factors
Brazilian states in different stages of COVID-19 response; 
economic recovery will not occur simultaneously across states
After reopening, European countries experimenting demand 
recovery in the most affected categories
China in advanced stage of economic recovery, with rapid 
industrial retake while services/leisure taking longer grow again
Bionic Resilience
[tech + human]
37
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving anypurpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
37
Investor views on priority areas companies 
should aggressively invest in1
Respondent views on priority of digital 
transformation post crisis
50
44
41
38
34
31
29
77%
82%
82%
81%
75%
74%
67%
58%
14%
18%
14%
17%
21%
33%
25%
9%
14%
6%
8%
5%
17%Healthcare
All industries
Industrial Goods
Technology,
Media, Telco
Consumer
Energy
Financial institution
Public Sector
Digital capabilities
or tech stack
M&A
R&D
Marketing & sales
Other innovation
Emerging markets
Divestitures 
and/or spinoffs
Become more urgent Become lower priorityNo change
PRE-CRISIS, DIGITAL CAPABILITY 
INVESTMENTS WERE TOP PRIORITY
NOW, >75% OF COMPANIES PLAN TO 
ACCELERATE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATIONS
COVID is accelerating Digital Transformation 
38
Source: DSR Global Digital Transformation 2020 Survey; n=459 
(survey is still ongoing)
Only ~30% 
navigate a digital
transformation 
successfully…
30%
… but 85% success rate among those 
that get key factors right
Measurement of progress & outcome with KPIs
Strong CEO/leadership engagement (e.g. quarterly or 
more frequent reviews)
Holistic strategy planning upfront (vision, 
prioritization, tech, human, roadmap)
Setting a bold strategy (offensive vs. defensive)
Digital culture & mindset across the org (action over 
planning, collaboration over individualeffort)
Ambition & 
Commitment
Strategy & 
Approach
Governance
Human
Tech Modernized technology & data platform (flexible,scalable and interoperable)
Establishment of CDO in the org (i.e. strong andlong-
term commitment to digital)
Agile mindset among leadership (fail fast approach, 
adaptive planning)
39
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
BCG has studied what the 
future looks like …
… with digital natives and 
digital transformers leading 
the way
40
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
40
It's more than Technology
Most traditional 
organizational 
models are built for 
scale and not 
resilience / 
adaptation 
41
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Technology Human
Bionic 
Company
42
What are the patters of companies thatare recover faster? 
Sep
110
AprMarOct FebNov Dec Jan May
70
80
120
90
100
Market capitalization 
Indexed to Sep 1st 2019
Source: Capital IQ, DAI Global Database
Bionic companies (DAI>67, n=20) Laggards (DAI<43, n=132)Mid-tier companies (DAI [43;67], n=60)
CW08 (Feb 17th)
Start of decline
CW13 (Mar 23th)
Start of recovery
Stronger performance of Bionic companies prior to crisis Less decline Faster recovery
43
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
43
Bionic companies are 1.9× to 2.3× stronger in key digital KPIs
1. What percentage of applications is digital-ready with API layer, data separated from functionality, running in private/public cloud?
2. What percentage of business and IT capacity operates in agile for joint business/IT projects?
3. What percentage of key core processes has already been significantly transformed using digital technologies, such as RPA, ML, AI, Manufacturing 4.0, Big data analytics?
Source: Global DAI study 2019/2020
33%
40%
18%22%
35%
14%
+82
+94
+136
>25% of applications 
digital-ready for API1
>25% of core processes 
digitally transformed3
OutcomesHumanTechnology
1.9x
2.0x
2.3x
>25% of both business 
and IT projects in agile2
Bionic laggardsBionic companies
44
The organization of the future is Bionic
Personalized customer 
experiences & 
relationships
Bionic 
Operations
New offers, services 
and business models
Data 
& AI
Modular
Technology
Digital Talent
Dynamic 
Platform
Organizations
Purpose & 
Strategy Human: 
Org, Talent, 
Ways of working
Technology: 
Data and 
Digital Platform
Outcomes
Outcomes
45
COVID demonstrates the power of outcomes 
46
“What” & “How” 
decisions delegated 
to the team
Alignment enables 
autonomy
Unbroken chain of 
why
Clear sense of 
purpose
Rapid exchange 
across areas of 
expertise
Feedback is more 
effective than 
upfront discussions
Experiment and 
learn
Human/tech interface 
constantly shifting
Quality and team 
performance improve 
over time
DecentralizedValue FocusedCross-functionalEmpiricalIterative
Source: BCG experience
Human
COVID demonstrates new ways of working
47
The org of the future needs to learn exponentially
Always-on Strategic 
Workforce planning
Expand what is 
"safe to try"
Recruiting for skills 
not roles
Individual-
learning
New skills
Up-skilling
Re-skilling
Enterprise-
learning
Culture of 
lifelong 
learning
Spirit of 
experimentation 
and innovation
Building new 
organizational 
capabilities
Continuous 
learning on the 
job
55% of jobs will 
involve new content, 
e.g. Marketing
15% of jobs will be 
new, e.g. UX designer
30% of today's jobs 
will disappear, e.g. 
mailman
Human
48
New approaches to technology and data accelerate time-
to-value
Technology
Core 
Transaction
Infrastructure
Data Layer
Smart Business 
Layer
49
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Building the Bionic Company
Strategy
and Purpose
Define and prioritize 
key outcomes at the 
heart of the company
Technology:
Data & Digital 
Platform
“Complete the circle” 
with human and 
technology enablers & 
define business roadmap
Human:
Org, Talent, &
Ways of Working
Outcomes
50
Four actions
2
1
4
3
Envision
the future
Prioritize
Bionic outcomes
Link to strategic 
imperatives
Reset 
human + tech 
roadmap
51
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internaluse only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Technology Human
Bionic 
Company
52
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Boston Consulting Group 
at LinkedIn 
Answers and suggestions
BCG.Brazil.Covid19@bcg.com 
53
BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. 
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most 
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any 
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly 
evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior 
to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a 
particular point in time. This presentation is not intended to: (i) 
constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the 
same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation 
of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own 
assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using 
this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws 
and guidance in your area, particularly the most recent advice 
issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before 
making any decision.
bcg.com
	BCG Live Session #13:�How to react to COVID-19 impacts? 
	Slide Number 2
	Slide Number 3
	Recap: Three phases of the COVID-19 development
	COVID-19 has spread across the world; different countries in different phases 
	Covid-19 growing at different pace across Brazilian states
	Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system capacity in many states (I/III)�Data as of May 28th
	Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system capacity in many states (II/III) �Data as of June 4th
	Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system capacity in many states (III/III)�Data as of June 11th
	Growth in active cases has been challenging the health system capacity in many states (III/III)�Data as of June 11th
	In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in COVID-19 spread
	In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in COVID-19 spread
	In many states, outbreak spreading outside capitals
	In SP state, spread continued to smaller cities; main growth focus now located outside the capital
	As a consequence, SP strengthened restriction measures in many regions (DRSs) across the state 
	In the last few weeks, we observed two trends in COVID-19 spread
	COVID gradually spread toward cities with high population density and high percentual of low income population
	Slide Number 21
	COVID-19 hit hard the global economy in Q1 2020
	Macroeconomic indicators show a deteriorated situation in Brazil, specially in Q2
	Services and industry sectors hit harder in the first quarter
	Agriculture: Sharp increase in exports driven mainly by soybeans 
	Industry: Progressive decrease in industrial activities observed in durable and capital goods
	Services: Weak signs of demand recovery so far
	In Europe, sectors' demand affected differently by; recent movement indicates slow return to normal
	Deep dive: Fashion and Insurance in an upward trend in the early days after reopening of Spain and Italy
	In China, industry and real estate sectors showing strong recovery indicators
	Growth of fresh and essentials reverting to normal whilst discretionary slowly recovering
	Key takeaways regarding economic impact and recovery
	Bionic Resilience��[tech + human]
	COVID is accelerating Digital Transformation 
	Only ~30% navigate a digital transformation successfully…
	BCG has studied what the future looks like …
	It's more than Technology
	Slide Number 42
	What are the patters of companies that are recover faster? 
	Bionic companies are 1.9× to 2.3× stronger in key digital KPIs
	The organization of the future is Bionic
	COVID demonstrates the power of outcomes 
	COVID demonstrates new ways of working�
	The org of the future needs to learn exponentially
	New approaches to technology and data accelerate time-to-value
	Building the Bionic Company
	Four actions
	Slide Number 52
	Slide Number 53
	Slide Number 54
	Slide Number 55