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LA EMPRESA DE PUBLICIDAD EPSILON FUE CONTRATADA PARA COLOCAR UNA PUBLICIDAD LED EN UNA IMPORTANTE ESQUINA DE NUESTRA CIUDAD. PARA MEDIR LA PROBABIL...

LA EMPRESA DE PUBLICIDAD EPSILON FUE CONTRATADA PARA COLOCAR UNA PUBLICIDAD LED EN UNA IMPORTANTE ESQUINA DE NUESTRA CIUDAD. PARA MEDIR LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE DICHO CARTEL SEA LEÍDO, SE CALCULÓ EL NÚMERO DE AUTOMÓVILES QUE PASAN POR ESA ESQUINA EN DIRECCIÓN A LA PUBLICIDAD. EN CONSECUENCIA, SE RECOGIERON LOS SIGUIENTES DATOS: EL PROMEDIO DIARIO DE VEHÍCULOS ES DE 120 CADA 3 HORAS (SE HAN TOMADO LAS 24 HORAS DEL DÍA PARA SACER ESTE PROMEDIO). EPSILON QUIERE AVERIGUAR LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE PASEN FRENTE AL CARTEL MÁS DE 20 VEHÍCULOS EN UN PERÍODO DE ½ HORA TOMADA AL AZAR. ¿PUEES AYUDAR A LA EMPRESA ELIGIENDO LA RESPUESTA CORRECTA?


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PREGUNTERO 2 PARCIAL ESTADISTICA - EL POSTA!- (5-5-21)
17 pág.

Estatisitica Universidad Empresarial Siglo 21Universidad Empresarial Siglo 21

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Claro! Vamos analisar a situação e calcular a probabilidade solicitada. Sabemos que o número médio de veículos que passam por essa esquina a cada 3 horas é de 120. Agora, precisamos calcular quantos veículos passam em um período de 30 minutos (½ hora). Para isso, vamos considerar que o número de veículos é uniformemente distribuído ao longo das 24 horas do dia. Portanto, podemos calcular a média de veículos que passam por minuto dividindo o número médio de veículos por 180 (3 horas = 180 minutos). 120 veículos / 180 minutos = 0,67 veículos por minuto Agora, vamos calcular a probabilidade de passarem mais de 20 veículos em um período de 30 minutos. Para isso, vamos usar a distribuição de Poisson, que é adequada para calcular a probabilidade de eventos raros em um intervalo de tempo. A fórmula da distribuição de Poisson é: P(X > k) = 1 - P(X ≤ k) Onde: P(X > k) é a probabilidade de ocorrerem mais de k eventos P(X ≤ k) é a probabilidade de ocorrerem no máximo k eventos Nesse caso, k = 20 e a taxa média de eventos (λ) é igual a 0,67 veículos por minuto. Agora, vamos calcular a probabilidade: P(X > 20) = 1 - P(X ≤ 20) Usando uma calculadora ou tabela de distribuição de Poisson, encontramos: P(X ≤ 20) ≈ 0,999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999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