Lecture 4 and 5

Prévia do material em texto

Lecture 22/03/2023 and 23/03/2023 
MODULE I 
A SHORT HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY (1648-2020) 
 
1.3. LIBERAL ORDER, FRAGMENTATION AND WORLD DISORDER (1991-2022) 
In this lectures, we looked at what has happened since the end of the Cold War until the present: the last 
30 years of the International Relations. 
What characterizes the post-Cold War period? 
- Age of multilateralism 
- Age of the liberal order 
They have been challenged multiple times, especially in the beginning of the 21st century, because of the 
September 11 attacks. They can be challenged externally, but also internally: double challenge of the glo-
bal order. 
Nowadays, an example of the societal challenges is the manifestations occurring in France. 
 
 REVIEW OF PREVIOUS LECTURE 
THE END OF THE EUROPEAN ORDER 
The European order rules from the Peace of Westphalia (1648) to the WWI (1914), is based on a concert 
of the major nations and is exported worldwide. 
The old international order, based on the European imperialism and concert of nations, implemented from 
the Peace of Westphalia, failed and disappeared. 
 
When pressured by the rival’s interests, it implodes in the World War I, that causes the fall of empires, the 
Russian revolution and the entry of the US in world affairs. 
Consequences of the WWI eruption: 
- Leaded to fall of 4 empires: Russian, Austrian-Hungarian, Ottoman and German empires) 
- Emergence of a new type of confrontation: Ideological confrontation (because of the Russian revolution 
and Soviet Union emergence). Different visions of the world competing between each other. Everything 
changes with the advent of the Soviet Union. 
- Emergence of another power with the WWI, the USA. With the war, they come to the world stage con-
quered the entire American continent and the relationship between the federation and the single states (A-
merican Civil War). 
 
The US were consolidated and when Woodrow Wilson retreats after proposing his 14 Points in Versailles. 
Versailles identifies only 1 country has the responsible for the war: Germany. This fueled the German re-
vanche and resulted in: Hitler in power, Nazism, Italian Fascism... 
The League of Nations turns out to be not strong. 
 
The USA impose a collective security system, which proves to be unable to mend and absorb the defects 
of the Peace treaties, consequently resulting in the WWII. 
WWII ends with the world lying in ruins because of the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the 
people starving, the UK and France losing their rule of the world, and the US and USSR rising as single 
superpowers of the global order (results of WWII). 
 
THE COLD WAR AND MULTILATERAL ORDER 
There’s a new world, administrated by the 2 superpowers, that rule in their respective blocs and through 
their agenda and their objectives. 
 
Cold War was represented by the nuclear power and the use of nuclear weapons. 
This determined their balance of power. We have the Security Council and the United Nations, but the 
countries are divided in 2 blocs and the Security Council itself is divided. 
 
The Cold War is essentially a confrontation between 2 different visions of the world: 
- Liberal vision, based on the rights of the individual 
- Communist, based on the classes 
 
CW is called like that because it never happened. The 2 superpowers are aware that a direct war would 
mean the end of humankind, because of the nuclear weapons. It results in a war by proxy. 
 
The Cold War is a consequence of the World War II and is a mostly ideological (also economical and mili-
tary) confrontation for the world dominance between the major winners of the WWII, the US and the USSR, 
that foster two opposing blocs: Capitalist Bloc (Western) and Communist Bloc (Eastern). The USSR was 
winning the game until the US proposed their program, that was only imaginative, but it caused the USSR 
to be afraid and want to discuss everything through diplomacy. 
 
The two superpowers fought essentially in the peripheries and used the colonies against each other. The US 
containment of the communist ambitions is countered by a vigorous Soviet expansion at all latitudes. 
When the Cold War ends, with the collapse of the Soviet system and USSR, the international society turns 
to multilateral institutions (f.e. NATO and ONU) to foster the world governance. 
The collapse of the USSR, we also have the collapse of the Soviet system and its satellites. This leads to a 
different world, based on multilateral institutions to foster world governance: democracy had won. 
 
 THE OF MULTILATERALISM 
A LIBERAL WORLD SYSTEM 
At the end of the Cold War, we have the age of multilateralism. 
The liberal world system is an order established after the Cold War, that is inspired by liberal thinking and 
based in four layers: 
 
1st layer: US hegemony and their enduring determination to lead the international society. The US are the 
CW winners and because of the American exceptionalism, they feel like the have the obligation to export 
its beliefs to the rest of the world. 
2nd layer: The Western centrality in the international system, based on relative power and sponsorship of 
free markets and democracy. This layer is based on the US power related to others. Everything in America 
was stronger than others, because the world was lying in ruins. Being the agent of liberal order, the US 
exercised their hegemony on 2 main things: sponsorship of democracy and sponsorship of free market. 
3rd layer: Multilateral organization of the international system, based on institutions and agreements regu-
lating all aspects of the interaction within a liberal framework. 
4th layer: The regional orders are determined by the local necessities and global imperatives. 
For the system to work, we need something to make it work: system of rules issued by a multilateral insti-
tution that performs a framework for other nations to participate in the foreign affairs. The institutions 
(NATO, ASEAN, African Union...) are providing the framework in which the liberal order can interact. 
This is the world that we see slowly developing from 1991 to 2001 with exceptional activism by internal 
institutions. 
However, the liberal order in this period is not appreciated by every world nation (eg: Russia, China), be-
cause it is imposed by the US. There are countries that are not happy with it (eg: defeated of the CW). 
 
FACTORS OF PROGRESSIVE CRISIS 
→ The 2 major trials: 
- 2001: political and military because of the September 11 attacks (the twin towers attack was religion 
inspired – Islamism) 
- 2008: economic crisis. The Western financial system escaped from its control, the system is flawed, 
there is a phase of massive speculation and economic crisis that leaves people and enterprises in ruins. 
 
The challenges to the liberal system can be: political, military or economical. 
 
→ The Western dominance of the international system is challenged by the rise and assertiveness of revi-
sionist powers (China and Russia). 
There are countries that refuse to be ruled by the liberal order: 
1. Russia: At the 2007 Security conference, Putin expressed that Russia does not stand the liberal order 
anymore because it is imposed by the US. 
2. North Korea 
3. Iran, because of the expansion policy over the Middle East 
4. China, that becomes a revisionist power, trying every possibility to become and economic superpower, 
they start the idea of corporation and stand by Russia’s side. 
 
→ We also have a redistribution of the balance of power. 
The distribution and realignment of the balance of power among aspiring nations were happening at the 
same time. 
 
→ The regional orders were under discussion or collapsing due to the tension of the rival challenges. 
Some nations align after the CW, start moving from the Western to the Eastern side of the world (the 4 
countries mentioned above plus African countries). 
TheMiddle East order collapses completely and the idea of exporting democracy to the ME basically 
sets the area into war. 
 
→ An overall legitimacy of the liberal order is questioned. The criticism has a direct impact on the stabili-
ty of the international society, multilateral institutions and national political systems. 
Revisionist powers approach the West to adopt different measures to their assertiveness: 
1. The legitimacy of this liberal order imposed is a challenge and the impact is the stability of the system: 
the more we challenge it, the more unstable it becomes. 
2. Multilateral institutions pay a price and they also have an impact inside the national political system. 
 
 THE CRISIS OF THE LIBERAL ORDER 
FACING A CHANGING WORLD ORDER? 
In reality, why does the liberal order slowly face a growing crisis? 
Basically, because the 4 layers on which it was built are challenged and unable to react to the challenges. 
The international order that had been established by the USA after the Cold War, appears to be coming to 
its end. 
The US abandon the order they had created. This process started with Obama and ended with Trump. 
 
This ongoing process is the result of a general crisis of the 4 layers, on which the order was constructed. 
The reasons were: 
▪ The US hegemony. Because the US had quit being a benign regulator and are abandoning the order cre-
ated by them, without a credible successor in sight. The structure is failing. 
▪ The West as a credible, cohesive and superior international subject under the US leadership. Because 
of the US behavior and the pursuit of competing national interests by other countries. The West needs 
to stop being the US leadership because it is divided and does not have strength to act without the US 
presence. Without the US presence in the system = West system faillure 
▪ The multilateralism and its mechanisms. Because of the major competition among major players within 
and outside of the institutions. Competition among players that reflects in competition inside the mul-
tilateral institutions (eg. WHO during the Pandemic). 
The War in Ukraine change the multilateralism picture again 
▪ The regionalism, in particular in the Middle East, where the system had collapsed, and in Europe whe-
re the EU is apparently evolving towards variable geometries. Because both Middle East governments 
and the EU are incapable of responding to societal demands. 
In Europe, there are variable geometries, because there are different opinions about the European Union, 
depending on the European zone (Eastern, Western and Central). 
The key point here is that regionalism is a crisis, not only because the system in Middle East has collapsed 
but also because the Middle East and the EU governments proved to be uncapable to respond to the socie-
tal demands. 
 
THE EMERGENCE OF MULTIPLE WORLD ORDERS 
The liberal order is challenged, the 4 layers are in crisis and the engine of the liberal order is the globali-
zation. Basically, according to liberals, economic interdependence leads to political interdependence and 
political interdependence leads to democratic peace (Liberal Approach of the IR). 
What’s the engine of globalization and interdependence? Globalization. 
 
If we read events using this approach, we can understand Iraq in 2003, because the US wanted to replace 
the current regime for a democracy, economic freedom, political interdependence and, finally, democratic 
peace. 
 
Globalization is slowing and the de-globalization is under way (em andamento), because of the re-gional 
issues about the distribution of wealth and the growth/impact of negative factors on societies. 
A new world is emerging, affected by: 
- Non-state actors that influence nations 
- Great expectations, brought up by emerging technologies and resulting mutations in politics and econo-
mics. 
 
Why is the liberal order challenged? 
Because globalization, instead of redistributing wealth and equity, distributed wealth only in certain parts 
of the world and generated negative approaches in certain societies. 
Was not only challenged by external challenges, but by internal ones also. Why? Because the liberal system 
is unequal. 
 
 The US retreat (act of stepping back) after GWOT (Global War On Terrorism) has determined the 
rise of lesser competitors, challenging the American dominance but not having the capacity to change the 
balance of power in a significant way. 
 
However, Russia in Europe and Africa, and China in the Far East are very assertive. They openly challenge/ 
threaten the international order and its rules. 
 The US are leading a vigorous response, but lack on credibility to reestablish the former hegemony. 
 In essence, it appears that the Post-Cold War multilateralism, ruled by the US hegemony will be re-
placed by permanent competition and multilateralisms: aggregations of states pursuing shared goals/ 
objectives. 
 
New world emerging: 
- Transnational non-state actors aside from nations (eg. Google, Facebook/Meta, Al-Qaeda, Daesh, Nestlè), 
because they shaped the people’s behavior and they influence nations. 
- Great expectations (Green Revolution) 
 
Are we going back the Westphalian Peace and concert of nations within a multilateral framework? 
 
THE RETURN OF HISTORY 
The Second Invasion of Ukraine, in 2022 by Russia has brought back a forgotten past and has altered Inter-
national Relations for the foreseeable future. War between countries is anything but dead. 
Economic interdependence does not constitute a bulwark (defensive wall) against war. 
The integration with China, that was based on economic exchange and political development, has failled. 
The economic changes rarely deliver meaningful changes in behavior. The pre-existent international co-
mmunity does not exist anymore, only narrower multilateralism among like-minded nations. 
The authoritarian regimes are forced to adopt increasingly extreme policies in order to survive. 
The potential of the Internet is far greater in democracies than in authoritarian regimes, and it leads to mis-
information. 
There’s still a West, based more on shared values than geography. The alliances remain a critical instru-
ment to promote order and the USA leadership is needed more than ever. 
 
 SOCIETAL CHALLENGES 
GLOBALIZATION IN CRISIS, POPULISM ON THE RISE 
▪ The volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity of world affairs and the surge and relevance of non-
state actors, together, breed insecurity, fear and retreat. 
▪ The transformation of every aspect of the society, imposed by globalization and technological advances 
impacts on traditions, they changes habits, braked certainties and caused: uncertainty in the future, lack 
of confidence in ruling classes, violent resistance to change, the closure of the society to the outside and 
the rise of populist or religious causes to protect the status quo, consequently causing a crisis of demo-
cracy. 
▪ Evolution of democracy from liberal political system based on the distribution of wealth and extended 
representation to illiberal rule of a majority. Prevalence of identity over ideology. 
▪ Hyper-connected, horizontal society, created by a technological advance, upsets the traditional hierar-
chy of communication and information; destroys the reliability of knowledge offered to the public, thus 
generating misinformation, lack of confidence and global insecurity. 
 
POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES AND PANDEMICS 
o The apparent inability of traditional rulers to cope with change generated a populist/radical response 
and a general crisis of liberal politics, ultimately jeopardizing both national and multilateral political 
architectures. 
o The further loss of credibility of the national and international orders determined by Covid-19 pande-
mic: lack of action from international organizations and uncoordinated response of nations. 
o 4 layers of the systemicand multidimensional crisis: 
1. Political: 2. Economic: 
- Requirement for all-round policies - Crash of production and consumption 
- Dilemma between intervention and sustainability - Private income crisis and public debt spiral 
- Crisis of credibility and consensus - Shutdown crisis of the economic sectors 
- Reflux from multilateralism 
 
3. Societal: 4. Security: 
- Increase of social distress and exclusion - Internal disturbances 
- Social disaggregation and disinformation - Border closures 
 - Break-up of consolidated alliances 
o Attempts to recover the international cohesion over particularism with the prevalence of a regional 
approach. 
 
 KEY TAKEAWAYS 
A CRISIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER 
The international order created by the US at the end of the Cold War, is overcome (ultrapassada) by a crisis 
of 4 layers, on which it was constituted: USA, West, multilateralism and regionalism. 
 
The US retreat after the GWOT (Global War on Terrorism), has determined the rise of lesser competitors, 
challenging the American dominance but not having the capacity to alter the balance of power in a signi-
ficant way. 
Nonetheless, Russia in Europe and Middle East and China in the Far East are very assertive and they openly 
challenge or threaten the international order and the rules. 
 
Are we going back to the Westphalian era? 
 
A CRISIS OF SOCIETIES 
The transformation imposed by the globalization and the new technologies generates uncertainty about the 
future. More, the distrust in the ruling classes, the resistance to change and the rise of populist movements, 
they generate a crisis of democracy and calls into question internal and international balances. 
 
The Covid pandemic has generated further systemic and multidimensional, internal and international crises.