Smith_ Hadfield_ Dunne, 2012, p 1-53

Prévia do material em texto

<p>Foreword JAMES ROSENAU clarify My contribution for students to the analysis of foreign policy began on a blackboard result was what variables were central to probing the dynamics of was prompted to eight an of eight-column matrix that listed the relative importance of five foreign The also types countries (Rosenau 1966) That matrix still informs my teaching key and variables in honoured implicitly underlies more than a few of the chapters in this volume Needless to research say, I am It that this volume takes note of my contribution to the conferences provoked sufficient interest among colleagues around the country to convene a policy' series I called the eight-column matrix and the description of it a 'pre-theory of foreign It tion of that explored various facets of the which in turn led to the publica- of a collection of essays prepared for the conferences (Rosenau 1974) This collaboration among some 20 scholars who had developed a keen interest in comparing foreign policies The gave rise to the founding of the Inter-University Comparative Foreign Policy (ICFP) project. that members of ICFP remained in continual contact for some six years, thus demonstrating 10 like-minded colleagues can pool their resources and sustain collaboration across research universities during a period of diminishing support for comparative and quantitative some The matrix was impelled by the milieu of the field at that time. It was a period in which com- faith and for the was very much in vogue and it seemed to me that foreign policy phenomena were as this work that subject to comparative analysis as any other political Indeed, I still find it remarkable no previous analyst had undertaken a comparative enquiry of when, how, and why differ- ent In countries undertook to link themselves to the international system in the ways that they did. because it stressed the need for comparative analysis, but for several other reasons that also it seems clear that the original pre-theory sparked wide interest not only underlay the enthusiasm for the First, the pre-theory offered a means for analysing the conduct of foreign policy in previous years as well as anticipating future developments in a country's external Second, as stressed below, it provided a means for bringing foreign and domestic policy together under the same analytical Third, it highlighted the virtues of case studies as a basis for comparing, analysing, and interpreting foreign policy ters that comprise this phenomena. All of these central characteristics of the field are fully represented in the chap- Much progress has occurred in the field since the founding of the ICFP. The very fact that it is now comfortably regarded as a 'field' is in itself indicative of how securely it has been estab- lished. This is not to say, however, that the field is easily mastered On the contrary, several of its key aspects pose difficult analytical problems. If politics is conceived as processes of trying to control the actions and attitudes of other actors in the more remote environment, a for- mulation I have always considered sound and worthy of applying to empirical materials (Rosenau 1963), it follows that analysis must focus on a wide range of phenomena-from in- dividuals and their orientations to the groups and institutions that form the bases of societies,</p><p>MICRO-MACRO enable Technologies people empower be touch with each other anywhere in constrains policy the world quantity vulnerable to quality making through increased capacity of Weakening of undermines Territoriality to the individuals to know solidifies national States and of national and when and how and increases for their alliances Sovereignty and the to engage in collective distrust of enmities difficulty of framing governments and global action national other analyse Globalization swells ranks complicates of National of and tasks of state the facilitate the capacity enlarge Economies of promotes unform weaken ability of publics to press governments of generates competence incentives heightens and/or paralyse markets IGOs and for some concerns for jobs promotes business other their financial institutions NGOs, encourage alliances organizations diplomatic warness the WTO and other frame and to policies in negotiations organizations implement performance the economies, and polities. Put little of human behaviour the scope analysis of foreign policy phenomena. of formation generates empowers facilitates adds to role institutional transnational advocacy each analysis. One not only needs to be familiar with the dynamics whereby states interact with to More important than its vast scope, however, this formulation is not easily subjected divides of new spheres arrangements for groups and special of authority and and of interests to pursue other, but the internal processes whereby foreign policies are formed also need to be consolidation cooperation on toments tensions influence through probed. To ignore these processes by classifying them as and thus as outside the existing spheres in major global issues among individuals the multicentric such as trade. diverse channels analyst's concerns, would be to omit central features of the behaviour one wants to investi- people gate. Students of domestic phenomena may be able to hold foreign inputs but the world human the toward local etc. spheres of authority student of a country's foreign policy must also be concerned with its affairs Put dif- same cannot be said about the phenomena that culminate in foreign the renders the global contributes to ferently, he or she must be a student of sociology and psychology as well as political science, Organizational facilitates multiple increases capacity of opposition stage ever more the pluralism and economics, and history. No less important, they should have some knowledge of the prob- Explosion lems inherent in comparative enquiry. The methodologies of the field are as as are the groups to form and transnational and dispersion of substantive problems that countries face in linking themselves to the international system and affiliation press for altered dense with non- heightens the In short, foreign policy phenomena are inordinately complex. They encompass inputs that with transnational policies divides governmental actors probability of authority can give rise to a variety of outputs, with a slight variation in one of the inputs having sizeable publics from their crises networks consequences for the outputs they foster. Thus the causal processes are not easily elites They can be highly elusive when their variation spans, as it usually does, a wide range of inputs that may vary from timel to time2 Nor can the complexities be assumed away. They are too Mobility stimulates enlarges the size heightens need increases movement central to the dynamics of foreign policy to ignore or One has no choice but to allow Upheaval imaginations and and relevance for international across borders that for them and trace their consequences across diverse Such 3 procedure facilitates provides more of cooperation to lessens capacity cogent analysis even as it risks drawing a less than complete extensive contacts and control the flow of governments to The main characteristics of foreign policy-and the requirements they impose on analysts with foreign ethnic conflicts of drugs, money, control national of the subject-are fully observable in the ensuing Their authors demonstrate keen heightens as people seek immigrants, and boundarles of the new opportunities terrorists abroad</p><p>They understand in the the anal. The best technique for seem be relevant especially to relevant may to the the the sum of the and others variance they account for not much a what being statement of fact as it is a more, even if noting of relation only 80% the examined or in 90% of to the each valuable variance despite IS the fact dynamics of the interactive that they fall short proc. all of the a full but to explanation Constructing incisive explain theo. enough The of ics to at work in the examined enlarge our explicating causal dynamics can full Foreign be a accounting of policy all the dynamics phenomena The at general of work the in a have a sense fully and draw situation conclusions It is about the it quite another central but is thing ensuing tendencies to chapters demonstrates that relevant hypotheses. proceeding in this the and Put of a foreign policy input-is insights While into the diverse ways societies interact with their way can deep the dependent the independent variables that foster involves eign two are less widely cited and thus can usefully be throughout the for- policy most of the relevant independent variables are amply assessed and grasp of the field. to Everything readily dependent has to be selective and focus counts for what I call the skill revolution and the other is the organizational elaborated here One alterations in the on to be relevant to the analysis. significantly shape the conduct of any country's foreign a sufficient proportion of the variance to warrant amplification explosion and together Each ac- they of it may be due to chance of the need to accounting for, say, 90% can be difficult. There no but Not cannot readily be importance of the different factors, but that the they The skill revolution to calculate relative only do analysts need of how they interact with each other idea also have to have some distinction large and small countries. To differentiate for the and Considerable evidence IS available to demonstrate that people in Consider of how a country's size affects its conduct in the the two, one has to series community of throughout the world. are increasingly able to trace distant events every country between aggressive abroad because of their countries limitations? small stood to interactions back into their own homes or pocketbooks The skill revolution through is a international arena policies Are avoid confrontation because of an imbalance between the resources The first of consist of three main dimensions: the analytical, the emotional, and the under- Do their foreign and those of the adversaries they contemplate taking on abroad? Are their to the observer's these involves an intellectual an expanding ability to link the Imaginative of at their disposal processes, in paralysed by the relative size of their potential adversar- arenas of people are ever more able to construct scenarios that depict how situations technological innovations, personal Facilitated by the internet and many other course events ies? decision-making Such questions are not easily answered at first glance. And they become even more dif- ficult if one has to assess the amount of the variance involved However, many analysts have not been deterred by the problems encountered in estimat- ployed in order is presumed to occur through adding new scenarios to those 10) The expansion world of skills politics impact on their lives and well-being (Rosenau, 2003: Chapter in the They know that such estimates are essentially arbitrary, as few have a perspec- mension of the to perceive and assess the situations of interest to them. The people em- tive founded on clear-cut notions of the range within which the causal potency of a variable as good or bad, skill revolution focuses on the way people feel about situations-to emotional di- is Nor are matters helped by stressing the relevance of a finding-'other things quence of a world welcoming or threatening-capacities that have also expanded as them being Usually other things are not equal, so that clustering them together as if they and circumstances dimension depicts the capacity of people to envision alternative lives. lifestyles, The imaginative that is shrinking and impinging ever more closely on their daily a conse- were equal can be misleading. How, then, to proceed? If the available conceptual equipment cannot generate reliable hy- the They for wide-ranging imaginative musings are abundantly organizations. available in all The materials for themselves. their families, and their chenshed potheses, and if a ceteris paribus (i.e. all things being equal) context has limited utility, how does the analyst confront the task of framing and probing meaningful insights? The answer lies in spouses. The cousins who find employment in Saudi and children who working as maids in Hong include global television, soap operas, letters from relatives parts of maintaining a focus on the potential rather than the pitfalls of comparative analysis. Even if the underpinnings of a country's foreign policy are ambiguous, one can nonetheless proceed to major contributor are the encounters reported by their authors. but nevertheless experiential for the recipients than learning embedded in messages sent home is less directly marry foreign examine what appear to be the main sources of the ambiguity, noting throughout the factors that may undermine the analysis. To focus on the obstacles to an enquiry is to ensure that the practices of distant calls from relatives abroad can be as much a window may even the that the letters and phone to the more worldly skills of those who do not travel. It it be can be a enquiry will fall short of what can be gleaned from the empirical materials at relevant for places as those offered on the television These stimuliare on norms and peoples in developing countries whose circumstances previously limited especially contacts</p><p>FOREWORD with other cultures and alternative lifestyles. Indeed, from the perspective of long been hemmed in by the realities of life on or below the poverty line, the imaginative capacities is among the most powerful forces at work in the world Editors' postscript The organizational explosion this new edition, word came through that Jim Rosenau had Hardly less so than the population recent years have in the number of voluntary associations that have crowded onto the aged and after some suffering professional. a stroke) Jim This was upset all of away reasons, some personal one the world and at every level of people-ordinary folk as well as editors for variety scholars working in foreign and was one of the subject's founding of are coming together to concert their efforts on behalf of shared needs and Exact activists- most significant on foreign policy analysis was not only through his published works, but on the extent of this pattern do not exist (largely because so much of it occurs at statistics fathers. His influence the personal encouragement he gave to generations of students and scholars. goes but few would argue with the propositions that the pace at which also through teaching at George Washington University in 2009, and still started each sociations are formed and old ones enlarged is startling, so much that to call it an is almost to understate the scale of growth. It has been calculated, for example, that explosion Jim only gave up students to read out headlines from the New York Times and then asking them class by asking Instance of?', and how it related to ideas they had covered in the course. His Indonesia had only a single independent environmental organization, whereas in 1999 in 1979 is this an said in one obituary that was in love with teaching and in love with were more than 2000 linked to an environmental network based in Jakarta 1999). there daughter, academic world' The editors of this book-particularly Steve Smith who had a close aca- the and personal relationship with him going back to 1980-experienced his personal The social media explosion demic kindness and, like countless other academics in the field, we owe Jim a massive debt for his always stimulating and stretching thinking about foreign policy analysis and international relations. Jim was a true scholar, a wonderful intellect, and an exceptionally kind man. We Since the first edition of this book was published, we have, of course, witnessed the would simply like to mark his passing by dedicating this new edition to him. changes represented by the Arab Spring of 2011, which have further blurred the distinctions major October 2011 between domestic and international politics, and further illustrate the interconnectedness of all politics on the planet. This sees its most extreme example in the role of social media in previously seemingly closed societies. The visions of Iranian protestors, or Syrian activists, organizing their protests by Twitter and Facebook show only too clearly that governments can no longer control information flows. Such control was only ever partial, but the new so- cial media fundamentally breach the old walls of the state. In this sense, the rise of social media represents a third revolution. Integrating the skill revolution, the organizational explosion, and the political consequences of the social media revolution into the analysis of the dynamics that shape foreign policy not an easy task. Not to do so, however, would be to greatly distort the analysis Clearly, what countries do abroad is highly dependent on the skills and attitudes shared amongst their populations at home. Taken together, the three variables account for a great deal of the vari- ance from one country to another and from one point in time to another.</p><p>GUIDED TOUR OF TEXTBOOK FEATURES Guided tour of textbook features Further reading To your learning further reading been with other provided as a guide to find out more about the a (2002) raised within each chapter topic and help This text is enriched with a range of learning tools to help you navigate the text material the key academic literature in the field and reinforce your knowledge of foreign policy. This guided tour shows you how get the most out of your textbook package. Reader's guides Reader's guide of The of Reader's guides at the beginning of every chapter the Glossary terms Glossary scene for upcoming themes and issues to be discussed and indicate the scope of coverage within each chapter Key terms are emboldened in the and are defined topic in a glossary at the end of the book to aid you in revision Learning boxes A number of topics benefit from further explanation or Exploration a way that does not disrupt the flow of the Throughout the book boxes provide you with extra information on particular topics to complement your understanding of the main chapter text Questions ? Questions A set of carefully devised questions has been provided to help you assess your comprehension of core themes and may also be used as the basis of seminar discussion and coursework how the of</p><p>GUIDED TOUR OF THE ONLINE RESOURCE CENTRE XY PowerPoint slides Guided tour of the Online Resource Centre of A suite of customizable slides has been included for use in Arranged by chapter the slides may also be used as handouts class The Online Resource Centre that accompanies this book provides students and lecturers with ready-to-use teaching and learning materials. online OXFORD For students Smith Hadfield Dunne Foreign Policy 20 Timeline A timeline has been provided so that you can find out about the different periods in the evolution of foreign policy analysis Web links Additional annotated web links For Lecturers These resources are password protected, but access is available to anyone using the book in their teaching. Please contact your local sales representative Flashcard glossary 3 A series of interactive flashcards containing key terms and concepts has been provided to test your Case studies theory understanding of terminology Steven Lamy draws out the key themes from the case study chapters in the book and suggests potential teaching topics Three additional case studies have been provided for use in teaching</p><p>Acknowledgements Contents in brief teachers of foreign policy Steve Smith first taught foreign Tim Dunne, policy who analysis Notes on contributors All three editors are while a young lecturer at the University of East Anglia the University of was in the mid-1980s taught comparative foreign policy at Exeter, in Steve's class in and writes about decision-making in relation of to intervention at the Introduction Steve Smith Amelia Hadfield and Tim Dunne 1 and currently teaches Science and International Studies at the University Queensland Amelia School of first Political taught foreign policy analysis at the University of Kent, Canterbury, and contin- ues to of the first edition was to gather into a single text the waterfront that of themes that Hadfield research and teach FPA at the Vrije Universiteit SECTION ONE Foreign Policy Analysis: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives The aim feature on a foreign policy course The second edition continues same goal, with ought to revised chapters written by first-rate scholars and instructors whose ability to com- 1 The history and evolution of foreign policy analysis new and their ideas via the research-led teaching of foreign policy analysis is clearly revealed Valerie M. Hudson municate that follow The second edition is nothing if not genuinely Span- 2 Realism and foreign policy in the pages zones from Exeter, Brisbane, and Brussels, the editors continued working with each William C. Wohlforth ning time to steer the text through the various stages, as well as collaborating with a talented line- 3 Liberalism and foreign policy up other of contributors who quite literally are drawn from the corners of the globe. 54 Michael Doyle the long journey to publication, we could not have wished for a better and more During commissioning editor than Kirsty Reade at OUP Kirsty helped to ensure that the 4 Constructivism and foreign policy 78 supportive second edition incorporated new ideas and changes but retained the authenticity and peda- Trine Flockhart gogic value of the Amelia's two research interns, Dusan Radivojevic and Nika Jurcova, 5 Discourse analysis, post-structuralism, and foreign policy have also provided ready assistance to key aspects of the Lene Hansen We set out to assemble a book that could serve as an ideal resource for bringing courses on foreign policy to If readers and instructors use it to debate and contest the great foreign policy issues of our then the book will have made its If readers and instructors do SECTION TWO Analysing Foreign Policy: Actors, Context, and Goals this and draw on the major theories and concepts informing the study of foreign policy, then we will have achieved more than we could have reasonably expected 6 Actors, structures, and foreign policy analysis We are all three indebted to the work of Jim Rosenau in different ways. He graciously wrote Walter Carlsnaes 113 the Foreword to the first edition When we first came up with the idea of asking Jim, we 7 thought it was a long shot Within minutes of sending the invitation, we had an enthusiastic Foreign policy decision making: rational, psychological, and neurological models reply that suggested all kinds of possible ways of opening Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, Janice Gross Stein 130 Cases Such energy and creativity has marked out Jim's contribution to a field which, more 8 Implementation and behaviour than any other writer and thinker, he has shaped and Elisabetta and Christopher Hill 147 As readers will note at the end of the Foreword, Jim sadly passed away before seeing the completed second Jim has educated countless students, written pioneering books 9 The role of media and public opinion Piers Robinson and and consistently sought to make foreign policy a theoretically informed field. 10 Therefore we think it is fitting to dedicate this book to him. The primacy of national security Steve Smith, University of Exeter, UK C Schmidt Amelia Hadfield, Universiteit Brussel, Belgium 11 Tim Dunne, University of Queensland, Australia Economic statecraft Michael Mastanduno 204 October 2011 12 Duties beyond borders Michael Barnett</p><p>XVIII CONTENTS IN BRIEF SECTION THREE Foreign Policy Case Studies Detailed contents 13 Teaching foreign policy cases 243 Steven L Lamy 14 The Cuban Missile Crisis XXV 256 Graham Allison Notes on contributors 15 Canada and antipersonnel landmines: the case for human 1 security as a foreign policy priority 284 Axworthy Steve Amelia Hadfield, and Tim Dunne Introduction 2 16 Neoconservatism and the domestic sources of American foreign The contemporary relevance of foreign policy 3 policy: the role of ideas in Operation Iraqi Freedom 308 Foreign policy theory disciplinary groundings 7 Yuen Foong Khong Organization of the second edition 17 China and the Tian'anmen bloodshed of June 1989 327 Rosemary Foot SECTION ONE Foreign Policy Analysis: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives 18 India and the World Trade Organization 348 Amrita Narlikar 1 The history and evolution of foreign policy analysis 13 19 Rising Brazil and South America 367 M. Hudson Arlene B.Tickner Introduction three paradigmatic works 13 20 Australia and global climate change 384 Classic FPA scholarship (1954-1993) 17 Matt McDonald The psychological and societal milieux of foreign policy decision making 23 21 Israeli-Egyptian (in)security: the Yom Kippur War 400 FPA self-reflection in the late 1970s and 1980s 27 Gareth Stansfield Conclusion contemporary FPA's research agenda 30 22 Blair's Britain and the road to war in Iraq 419 2 Realism and foreign policy Tim Dunne 35 William C. Wohlforth 23 Energy and foreign policy: EU-Russia energy dynamics 441 Introduction Amelia Hadfield 35 What IS realism? 24 New actors, new foreign policy: EU and enlargement 463 36 The development of realist theories Aggestam 38 Realist analysis of foreign policy 485 Using realism in analysing foreign policy 42 Glossary Endnotes 495 Conclusion foxes, and analysing foreign policy 47 3 503 Liberalism and foreign policy 50 Bibliography Michael W Doyle 54 Index 533 Introduction 54 Liberal foreign relations 55 Mitigating trade-offs 56 Conclusion 69 4 Trine Constructivism and foreign policy 76 Flockhart Introduction 78 78</p><p>DETAILED CONTENTS DETAILED CONTENTS XX xxi 79 What constructivism? The instruments of foreign policy 161 80 Applied constructivism Conclusion 166 The essence of constructivism 9 The role of media and public opinion 89 168 Constructivism meets foreign policy Piers Robinson 92 Introduction Conclusion 168 5 Discourse analysis, post-structuralism, and foreign policy 94 Public opinion and foreign policy 170 Media and foreign policy Lene Hansen 172 94 Procedural versus substantive criticism and influence Introduction 176 96 public and theoretical frames Post-structuralism 179 101 Studying foreign policy discourses Conclusion new technology and the War on 183 Conclusion-the scope and weaknesses of discourse analysis 106 10 The primacy of national security 188 Brian C Schmidt Introduction SECTION TWO Analysing Foreign Policy: Actors, Context, and Goals 188 Realism and national security 190 113 Security studies and national security Actors, structures, and foreign policy analysis 195 6 National security and American grand strategy 197 Walter Carlsnaes 113 Conclusion 201 Introduction 115 11 Economic statecraft 204 Historical background The role of actors and structures in approaches 10 FP 116 Michael Mastanduno Introduction 118 The role of actors and structures approaches to FP 204 124 Economic statecraft instruments and objectives 206 Conclusion Economic sanctions not always but still useful 209 7 Foreign policy decision making: rational, psychological, 130 Why governments still find sanctions useful 212 and neurological models Economic incentives an under-appreciated instrument of statecraft? 217 Janice Gross Stein 130 Economic interdependence source of political harmony or conflict? Introduction 131 Conclusion understandings of rationality 221 132 12 Duties beyond borders Psychological models the revolution 223 139 Michael Barnett and computation 143 Introduction 223 Conclusion 147 Duties beyond borders 224 8 Implementation and behaviour Theories of foreign policy and duties beyond borders 226 Elisabetta Brighi and Christopher Hill 147 Are foreign policies becoming kinder and gentler? 229 Introduction 148 The tragedy of Rwanda When actors meet their issues 231 157 Libya case of interests or responsibilities? 235 influence 158 Conclusion 237 The practical importance of context</p><p>DETAILED CONTENTS xxii DETAILED CONTENTS The Tian'anmen crackdown SECTION THREE Foreign Policy Case Studies 331 Immediate foreign policy consequences 337 243 China's foreign policy response to sanctions 340 13 Teaching foreign policy cases The deepening of China's involvement with human rights 342 Steven L. Lamy 243 China's emergence as a significant global actor 343 Introduction What are the differences between a research case and a teaching case? 245 Conclusion 344 248 Retrospective and decision-forcing cases 18 India and the World Trade Organization 250 348 Learning about the foreign policy process with cases Amrita Narlikar 252 Testing middle-range theories Introduction 348 254 Conclusion why cases work well India's schizophrenic rise 349 256 14 The Cuban Missile Crisis From the margins of the GATT to the core of the WTO 351 Graham Allison The political economy of rising influence 355 256 Introduction Institution-specific explanations learning to negotiate successfully 357 257 Operation The burden of rising power 363 260 Why missiles in four hypotheses Conclusion 364 264 Why American blockade 267 19 Rising Brazil and South America 367 Why Soviet withdrawal of missiles from Cuba Arlene B. Tickner Analytical epilogue three conceptual frameworks for analysing foreign policy 273 Introduction 367 15 Canada and antipersonnel landmines: the case for human Brazilian diplomacy methods and mechanisms 369 security as a foreign policy priority 284 Three keys to Brazil's rise 372 Lloyd Axworthy 284 Why South America? 375 Introduction 288 Power without leadership 378 The context 294 Conclusion 381 The process 300 20 Establishing a legacy Australia and global climate change 384 Neoconservatism and the domestic sources of American foreign Matt McDonald 16 308 Introduction policy: the role of ideas in Operation Iraqi Freedom 384 Yuen Foong Khong 308 Global climate change and the UNFCCC regime 385 Introduction 310 Australia and global climate change 389 as a domestic source of American foreign policy Australia and UNFCCC 313 391 The four tenets of neoconservative foreign policy thought Conclusion 315 396 Neoconservatives and the slaying of the Iraqi monster 21 320 Gareth Stansfield Israeli-Egyptian (in)security: the Yom Kippur War 400 Neoconservatism in the context of other factors 322 Conclusion Introduction 327 401 17 China and the Tian'anmen bloodshed of June 1989 The legacies of the Six-Day War of 1967 403 Rosemary Foot 328 Foreign policy thematics 412 The external consequences of China's open door policy Conclusion 330 416 The human rights before Tian'anmen</p><p>DETAILED CONTENTS 22 Blair's Britain and the road to war in Iraq 419 Notes on contributors Tim Dunne 419 Introduction 422 UK foreign policy agency and commitments 427 The road to war Lisbeth Aggestam is a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Bath, UK 433 Inside the UNSC She has written extensively on European foreign policy and was the guest editor of special 437 issue of International Affairs (2008) that examined the EU's global role from ethical perspectives. Conclusion Energy and foreign policy: EU-Russia energy dynamics 441 Her forthcoming book is a comparative foreign policy analysis of Britain, France, and Germany. 23 entitled European Foreign Policy and the Quest for a Global Role (London: 2012). Amelia Hadfield 441 Graham Allison is Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Introduction Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard's John F Kennedy School of Government Dr Allison 443 The role of energy in foreign policy has served as Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan and as Assist- 446 ant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans under President Clinton, where he coordinated Energy in post Cold War reform Department of Defense strategy and policy towards Russia, Ukraine, and the other states of the 449 Pre-crisis former Soviet Union. Dr Allison's first Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile 453 Crisis (1971), was released in an updated and revised second edition in 1999 and ranks among Security of supply crisis 456 the all-time bestsellers in Political Science, with more than 450,000 copies in print. Foreign policy perspectives 459 Lloyd Axworthy is President and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Winnipeg In 2010 he was Conclusion elected International President of the World Federalist Movement-Institute for Global Policy. 463 24 New actors, new foreign policy: EU and enlargement He is the former director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Colum- bia (2000-2004) and was a Member of Parliament for over twenty years, serving as Canada's Lisbeth Aggestam 464 Foreign Minister from 1996 to 2000. He is the author of Navigating a New World: Canada's Glo- bal Future (2003). Introduction 466 EU foreign policy 468 Michael Barnett is University Professor of International Affairs and Political Science at the George The Bang enlargement Washington University. His most recent book is Empire of Humanity: A History of Humanitarian- 478 ism (2011). Beyond enlargement EU foreign policy in the neighbourhood 480 Conclusion the transformative power of the EU Elisabetta Brighi is Teaching Fellow in International Security at University College London and Vis- iting Lecturer in International Relations at Middlesex University. Her articles have been published 485 She in Government and Opposition, and Rivista di Scienza Politica, amongst other has also co-edited the volume Pragmatism in International Relations (Routledge, 2009) and, Glossary 495 most recently, a collection of essays entitled Mediterraneo nelle Relazioni Internazionali (Vita e Endnotes 503 Pensiero, 2010) with Fabio Petito. A fully trained photographer. she is based in London. Bibliography 533 Walter sala Carlsnaes is Senior Professor of Political Science in the Department of Upp International University, and was until very recently also Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Institute of Index Handbook and has published three monographs and eight co-edited volumes, including the (1995-2000). Affairs. He was founding editor of the European Journal of International Relations interests (2011) are in and a five-volume reference set on Foreign Policy Analysis (2011). His main research Science of International Relations 2nd edn International Encyclopedia of Political science, EU foreign policy analysis, international relations theory and the philosophy of social Michael external relations, and Swedish and South African foreign and security at Columbia W. Doyle is the Harold Brown Professor of International Affairs, Law. and Political Science he received Charles Merriam Award of the American Political Science Philosophical Association Society In 2011 ceived the University In 2009 he was elected to the American and re- political scientist. APSA's Hubert H. Humphrey Award in recognition of notable public (APSA). service by I Empires (Cornell (Princeton University Press. Ways and tional Conflict His publications include Striking Preemption and Prevention in Interna- University Press). From 2001 to 2003, he of served War and as Assistant Peace (W.W. Secretary-General Norton)</p><p>NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS Secretary-General Kofi Annan and he is a Chair of the and Special Adviser to United Fund Advisory Yuen Foong Khong is Professor of International Relations at and a Fellow of Nuffield United Nations Democracy in the School of Political Science and Oxford He is the author of Analogies at War (Princeton) and (with Neil MacFarlane) is Professor of International Relations Tim Dunne Director at the Asia-Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Human Security and the UN: A Critical History (Indiana). He is currently working on a book Protect, tional and Research He has written and edited ten which include Terror in our Time project on International Politics: The Rules of the Game. University of with Ken Booth. He is currently an editor of the European Journal of International Steven L. Lamy is Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California and co-authored from 2012 he will serve on the governing council of the International Studies Vice Dean for Academic Affairs in the Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. His areas of sociation Relations and He is also President of the ISA Asia and the Pacific regional section. research and teaching are foreign policy analysis and international relations His current work is funded by a Luce Grant on religion and international relations. Flockhart is Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies Before Trine DIIS she was Associate Professor at universities in Australia, Denmark, and Britain. In her Matt McDonald Is Senior Lecturer, International Relations at the School of Political Science and joining in a policy research institute she works with policy-relevant issues related to NATO International Studies at The University of Queensland His research interests are in the area of current the position EU. whilst also maintaining an interest in constructivist theorizing. Her policy work is avail- international security and foreign policy. His research focuses on critical theoretical approaches and and her most recent research publications can be found in to security and their application to environmental change, Australian foreign and security Journal able of Common Market Studies (2010) and Perspectives on European Politics and Society (2011). the War on Terror, and security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific He is the author of Security, the Environment and Emancipation (Routledge, 2011) and editor (with Anthony Burke) of Critical Foot is Professor of International Relations and John Swire Senior Research Fellow in Security in the Asia-Pacific (Manchester University Press, 2007). Rosemary the International Relations of East Asia at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. Her mono- Michael Mastanduno is the Nelson Rockefeller Professor of Government and Dean of the Faculty graph munity and the Struggle over Human Rights in China (Oxford University Press, 2000) and (with publications of relevance to this chapter include Rights Beyond Borders: Tthe Global Com- of Arts and Sciences at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA. He has written widely on economic statecraft, international political economy, and international relations theory. Andrew Walter) China, the United States and Global Order (Cambridge University Press, 2011). Amrita Narlikar is Reader in International Political Economy at the Department of Politics and Amelia Hadfield is Professor of European Affairs at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) where International Studies, University of Cambridge. She is also Director of the Centre for Rising Pow- she teaches and researches on European foreign and public policy and foreign policy analysis ers and an Official Fellow of Darwin College, Her single-authored books are as well as directing the EuroMaster programme. She is also a Senior Research Fellow at the In- tional Trade and Developing Countries: Bargaining Coalitions in the GATT & WTO, (Routledge, stitute for European Studies (IES), Brussels, where she directs the Educational Development 2003), The World Trade Organization: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2005), Unit (EDU). Her special area of interest is EU energy security issues as they relate to Russia, the and New Powers: How to Become One and How to Manage Them (Hurst, 2010). Her edited books Mediterranean, and the EU's She is also an Associate Fellow of the Energy, include the forthcoming collection (with Martin Daunton and Robert Stern) The Oxford Hand- Environment and Development Programme (EEDP) at Chatham House. Her recent publica- book on the World Trade Organization (Oxford University Press). tions include International History and International Relations (with Andrew Williams and Simon 2012), British Foreign National Identity and Neoclassical Realism (2010) and Piers Robinson is Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Department of Politics, University of 'EU-Russia Energy Relations: Aggregation and Aggravation', Journal of Contemporary European He researches the relationship between communications and world politics. His book The CNN Effect: The Myth of News, Foreign Policy and (Routledge. 2002) analy- Studies (2008). five ses the relationship between news media, US foreign policy, and humanitarian crises. In the last Lene Hansen is Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political Science, the years he has been leading a major ESRC project exploring media coverage of the 2003 Iraq University of She is the author of Security as Discourse Analysis and Secu- ance: British This project has led to a series of publications culminating in the book Pockets of Resist- Bosnian War (Routledge, 2006), co-author with Barry Buzan of The Evolution of International Katy News Media Theory and the 2003 Invasion of Iraq (co-authored with Peter Goddard, rity Studies (Cambridge University Press, 2009), and the co-editor with Ole Waever of European She is Parry, Craig Murray, and Philip M. Taylor) (Manchester University Press, 2010). Integration and National Identity: The Challenge of the Nordic States (Routledge, 2002). James held the Rosenau (25 November 1924-9 September 2011) Prior to his Professor Rosenau currently an editor of the European Journal of International Relations. academic University, an honour reserved for the few scholar-teachers whose recognition in the distinguished rank of University Professor of International Affairs at The George Wash- Christopher Hill FBA is the Sir Patrick Sheehy Professor of International Relations in the Depart- of The ment of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge. He is the author Wong) Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (Palgrave, 2003) and most recently (edited with Reuben Association. He Foundation Fellowship and was a former president of the International Studies a Guggenheim community transcends the usual disciplinary boundaries. Professor Rasenau had held National and European Foreign Policies: Towards Europeanization (Routledge, 2011). Valerie M. Hudson is Professor and George H.W. Bush Chair in the Bush School of Government affairs pro- Governance Without Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of Change and Continuity (1990). books, including was also the author of some 140 articles and author or editor of more than forty nologies and Global Government: Order and Change in World Politics (1992), Information and Public Service at Texas A&M University, teaching in the masters of international Foreign gramme She is editor or co-editor of Political Psychology and Foreign Policy, Culture and and is Domestic-Foreign Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and Governance the Dynamics Exploring Governance in a Turbulent World (2002), Along Proximi- Policy, Artificial Intelligence and International Politics, and The Limits of State Autonomy, of the author of Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. She is a past president editorial Brian Schmidt Beyond Globalization (2003), and The Study of World Politics (two Distance 2006). Foreign Policy Analysis Section of the International Studies Association, and Is on the sity, Canada. He is Associate Professor in the Department of Political board of Foreign Policy is the author of The Political Discourse of Anarchy: Science A Disciplinary at Carleton Univer- History</p><p>NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS International Relations (SUNY, 1998) and Imperialism and 2005) Internationalism in the Discipline of of International Relations, co-edited with David Long (SUNY, Smith is Vice-Chancellor of the University of From 2009 has to 2011 he was President of Introduction Steve UK (the representative body of all UK universities). He previously served as Chair Universities Group of research-intensive universities in the UK From 1992 to 2002 he was Pro- STEVE SMITH, AMELIA HADFIELD, AND TIM DUNNE of the of 1994 International Politics at the University of Wales Aberystwyth. From June 2007 until May fessor he led for higher education on the Prime Minister's National Council of Excellence In Edu- 2010, He has honorary degrees/fellowships from Jilin University in China, Southampton Uni. the University of the West of England, Aberystwyth University. and the University of Chapter contents versity. Wales Cardiff He is the author/editor of sixteen books, most recently International Theories, co-edited with Tim Dunne and Milja Kurki (Oxford University Press, 2007) and The contemporary relevance of foreign policy 2 Relations over 100 academic papers and chapters in international journals and edited collections. He was Foreign policy theory: disciplinary groundings 3 knighted in the Queen's Birthday Honours List in June 2011 7 Organization of the second edition Gareth Stansfield is Professor of Middle East Politics and Director of the Institute of Arab and Is- lamic Studies at the University of Exeter. He IS the author of Iraq: People. Politics (Polity Press, and was the guest editor of the November 2010 special edition of International Af- fairs which focused on 'Post-American His current research focuses on counter-insurgency One of the great pleasures of teaching foreign policy theory is that it must always be grounded and stabilization strategies in post-conflict states. He is an Associate Fellow of the Middle East in empirical examples: the theory is of little interest unless one can utilize it in specific case stud- and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. ies. The second edition of this book, like the first, builds on that and our explicit Janice Gross Stein is the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management in the Department of Politi- view as editors is that we want theoretical chapters to illuminate case studies, and case studies cal Science and the Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto that are themselves theoretically That, we believe, makes the subject genuinely fasci- She is an Honorary Foreign Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Mem- nating, and, as you will see in the chapters that follow, also raises some of the most problematic ber of the Royal Society and the Order of Canada. Her most recent book is Diplomacy in the questions in the social sciences. Courses on foreign policy have, in the experience of the editors, Digital Age (2011). always been popular with both undergraduate and postgraduate students, and since the first Arlene B. Tickner is Professor of International Relations in the Political Science Department at the edition claim an increasingly central place in both political science and area studies degree Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Her main areas of research include Latin American and Colombian foreign policy. United States policy towards the region, Western hemisphere courses. Of particular appeal for students is that the study of foreign policy pushes them to think and Andean security and the sociology of knowledge in the field of international relations. Her about why X did whether he/she made the right choice, and what might have been the costs/ most recent book in this area, co-edited by David L. is Thinking International Relations benefits of the alternatives. Foreign policy as a field of study challenges students and scholars alike Differently 2012) both to explain the broad structure of international relations and to understand the specific William Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor at Dartmouth College, where he teaches in challenges facing key policy makers, and then judge whether-in light of the context-they did the Department of Government His most recent books are International Relations Theory and the right thing (and for whom?) The second edition has a variety of new chapters that strengthen the Consequences of (2011), coedited with G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastand- the theories reviewed in Section 1-its extensive case studies found in Section 3. Echoing the World Out of Balance International Relations Theory and the Challenge of American Primacy rationale of the first edition, the case studies represent a deliberate choice of the editorial team, co-authored with Stephen Brooks, and The Balance of Power in World History (2007). and designed to ask to encourage both students and instructors to get as close as they can to state practice, edited with Stuart Kaufman and Richard He has published numerous articles on tional and strategic affairs. including 'Reshaping the World Order', Foreign Affairs (2009). the wisdom themselves the endlessly fascinating questions about both the reasons for action and of those choices with the benefit of hindsight. Primacy in Foreign Affairs (2002), and Status Competition, and Great Power World Politics (2009). Recent publications on realism include 'Gilpinian what To be that clear at the outset, we do not believe that case studies can be 'simply' factual, Realism and International International Relations (2012), and 'No One Loves a Realist factual material means in effect is that the theoretical assumptions that guide the since The Cold War's End Revisited', International Politics (2011) 'Why did the United are merely hidden from view. Consider a seemingly empirical analysis of the Mahmoud Abbas States refuse to support the proposal, made by the Palestinian question such as United Nations?' At in first September 2011, that Palestine should become a full President obvious but further sight it would seem that such a question supposes a member of the do we mean by the either an or more likely an implicit, theoretical all of which can only be dealt with by reflection soon raises some serious issues, variety of fairly USA-President Obama? The Cabinet? Congress? The position. American What people? exactly</p><p>STEVE AMELIA TIM DUNNE INTRODUCTION 3 2 US businesses? The State Department? The US media? The the country UN Security that Council? is the dominant the world and possesses a right of veto in What do foreign the sum of official external relations conducted by an independent actor relations power the in term President Obama made it clear that any question about Palestin- (usually IR the processes of globalization and interdependence that had gained mean by of the UN had to be seen part of a wider process of change in the Middle For many the 1990s undermined the state as an thereby making a focus on the foreign ian membership not simply a refusal and was instead linked to guarantees for Israel's security Was pace in of states less central to explanations of international relations than during the rest of the East Obama's stance thus genuinely reflective of US strategic interests in the Middle East policy Second World War Yet. as other scholars argued. globalization and President of changing views as to the implementation of a two-state solution, or more to do post did not lead to the demise of the state: instead they made it both more constrained and reflective internal political such as the power of the pro-Israel lobby and the ence central. More constrained because there were an increasing number of restrictions on with of American elections? Put like this such questions may strike readers as exercises in idle the more freedom of the state to act as it might globalization created a web of interdepend- round speculation but in fact they are not. Answering key questions about the central that undermined the state's ability to control its own the state was also more academic inputs, and outputs of foreign policy decisions means placing oneself within a particular central ence than simply because populations continued to look to the state to mitigate the of what foreign policy is who makes and how we judge its Answers to effects of and yet now they do so over a significantly increased range of policies view such questions are found first in the realm of theory. and only subsequently in case than ever before (from inward investment to climate change). Thus globalization and interde- In this Introduction we do not need to give an overview of the history of foreign policy pendence have not withered away the importance of but have made it more com- theory. since this IS expertly with in Valerie Hudson's opening chapter However, we do plicated A good example here is the blowback effect of foreign policy decisions on domestic want to do three things first. to say something about the contemporary relevance of the constituencies-for example. critics of the Bush administration argue that the dangers of the study of foreign policy. to look at some definitional issues concerning the study of grand strategy to eliminate terrorist threats could generate greater insecurity both for the USA foreign policy. finally, to discuss the updated organization of the second edition so that lec. and the wider international order This links to our earlier comment about the applicability of turers and students alike can understand how we intend it to work as a text. the notion of foreign policy to actors other than the state We are now more inclined to see foreign as something that a variety of actors do, from influential social movements on the one hand to regional actors like the European Union on the other These actors have The contemporary relevance of foreign policy eign policies. and consequently they have a high on other states and A second area where foreign policy is of growing relevance is in terms of its innovative There are two ways in which foreign policy is of relevance to the study of world The first contribution to how we understand the behaviour of International actors. Whereas the analy- relates to the agenda of world politics after 9/11 and the renewal of interest in foreign policy sis of foreign policy has traditionally focused on the state as the central foreign policy it se. The second relates more closely to an academic dialogue between the literatures on has not meant accepting the core assumptions of realism. Just as the international system can per foreign policy and International Relations (IR). Both of these points are elaborated upon of in- be studied according to various theoretical the same can be said of foreign pol- For much of the preceding twenty years, the dominant discussions in the discipline had icy Indeed, one of the drivers for the book was to join up theoretical work on foreign policy ternational relations were about the structure of the international system: why bipolarity with wider currents in IR and, to a lesser extent, in the discipline of Examples of the and the nature of its replacement-a unipolar system or a drift towards multipolar- the re-integration of IR theory with foreign policy concerns are evident in the opening section of ity? But the events of 9/11 changed this, primarily because they focused attention both on the IR the book in which leading theorists outline the relevance to foreign policy of the three main centrality of decisions taken by states and other independent actors, and on reasons why attacks realism, liberalism, and constructivism. In other chapters of the book, authors US and UK intelligence services turned out not to be fit for purpose. Moving from the the apply some of the more radical accounts of international relations, for example drawing on on the World Trade Center to the response, it is evident that the burgeoning literature on 2006) us insights is that from post-structuralism and the literature on the power of discourse. What this tells USA's role in the world draws and is relevant to, the study of foreign policy (e.g. Walt behaviour almost there is not one approach to foreign policy but many. foreign policy is an Readers might immediately think that foreign policy has no role in discussing the of ences, most perfect subject for examining in detail the fundamental debates within the social sci- of an actor such as al-Qaeda. For us, foreign policy, although usually linked to the behaviour regional the debate significantly the debate on the relative importance of structures and and a state, can apply to other actors. Thus it is perfectly possible to speak of companies, by on whether we should seek to explain or to understand foreign policy agency, behaviour. governments, and non-state actors having foreign policies. A classical definition is provided the form Walter Carlsnaes, for whom foreign policy entails actions which, expressed in Foreign of explicitly stated goals, commitments and/or directives, and pursued by governmental policy theory: disciplinary resentatives acting on behalf of their sovereign communities, are directed towards objectives. affect groundings need to state from the the conditions and actors-both governmental and non-governmental-which they want to belief that outset that the study of underpinning foreign Foreign lectual Policy: Theories, Actors, Cases is and which lie beyond their territorial (Carlsnaes 2002: 335). A broader defines which many contributors to the book concur with, is given by Christopher Hill, who domain. This is an important policy ought since not for to most be regarded of the period as an since independent the end of intel- the</p><p>STEVE SMITH. AMELIA TIM DUNNE 4 INTRODUCTION World War there has been a flourishing approach known as Foreign of Policy Analysis public policy, comparative policy, realism, and psychology, as well of other 5 Second Valerie Hudson's chapter a comprehensive overview of the history FPA, and thus While IR yields a host of ciplinary approaches interdis- we (FPA). do not need to discuss it at length here However, we do need to say why we do not want with) the tenets of state behaviour, it IS rarely deployed to discuss key aspects always of engaging to restrict the coverage of this book to odd, because both sides are effectively talking about the same both are This developed in the 1950s, and for the next thirty years it was a vibrant research commu- understanding the input and output of state behaviour, and from a conceptual interested in FPA in IR As Hudson notes, there were three main themes, each focused around a paradig- both attempt to judge which particular methodology is best to explain, standpoint or nity matic First there was the focus on foreign policy policy making, inspired by the work of predict state behaviour and its underlying motives. Where they sometimes differ is in even relation Snyder, Bruck, and Sapin in the 1950s, and then by the literature on bureaucratic and organi- to both the level of analysis and the units of analysis. zational politics in the 1960s and 1970s (notably the work of Allison and Halperin). Second, To an extent, this connection has always been both organizationally and intellectually there was a focus on the psychological dimension of foreign policy making, inspired by the Organizationally, FPA has been a standing group of the International Studies Associa- work of Kenneth Boulding and Harold and Margaret Spout in the 1950s, by Alexander George tion (ISA) for over thirty-five years, in recent years, this connection has been further enhanced and Michael Brecher in the 1960s, and by Irving Janis in the 1970s. Third, there was the at- by the creation of a new ISA journal on foreign policy the entire history of IR has tempt to develop a theory of comparative foreign policy (CFP), inspired by Jim Rosenau's witnessed a constant debate within the main theories in terms of whether they were theories work on the relationship between genotypes of states and the sources of their foreign policy of the international system or theories of foreign This was most famously discussed in in the 1960s. FPA sought to develop middle-range theories, that is to say theories that were David Singer's seminal article on 'The Level of Analysis Problem in International not general accounts of all foreign policy behaviour but instead were accounts of either the (Singer 1961), in which he noted that the two main levels at which we could analyse IR were foreign policies of some types of states or foreign policy in specific situations (such as crises). the state and the systems levels, each had their strengths and weaknesses, but crucially each By the late 1980s, FPA began to fall out of Hudson discusses the reasons for this, introduced biases into their explanations (for example, by respectively overestimating and but clearly one of the main ones was the failure of the CFP project to develop a robust theo- underestimating the differences between states as actors). A similar discussion has been a retical framework But if CFP was unsuccessful, the other two main strands of FPA-the work constant theme in the work of Kenneth Waltz, who in Man the State, and War (Waltz 1959) on psychological processes and on policy making-ha built up robust and powerful ac- saw accounts of war being developed on three levels: human nature, the type of state, and the counts of foreign policy. Therefore to treat FPA as the only approach to the study of foreign structure of the international The latter two of these became the alternative choices policy would limit our discussions, and of course would link our volume to a specific ap- for explanation in his ground-breaking Theory of International Politics (Waltz 1979) More proach to the study of foreign policy that was at its most influential and productive in the recently, there has been the development of a new and dynamic interplay between IR and 1960s and 1970s. In short, reducing the study of foreign policy to be only FPA-related is inac- what would previously have been termed FPA. A good example here is Christopher Hill's since many more theories are involved than those covered by FPA, and would also outstanding textbook The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (Hill 2003) which draws heavily focus on a specific approach that has declined in the last twenty The vast literature on on ideas and concepts found in writers associated with the theory of international society. the USA's role in the world after 9/11 has connected with significant FPA themes, such as bu- such as Hedley Bull and R.J. Vincent. reaucratic politics and while not at the same time remaining inside the sub-field The final issue concerning disciplinary grounding relates to foreign policy theory and the recent more radical accounts of IR. By and large, most critical theorists have avoided the study of We believe that the dynamics of foreign policy are found in a wide range of IR In- of foreign policy because it implies a normative commitment to the values and interests of deed, the objects of foreign policy inquiry necessitate an engagement with a host of social particular states or of sovereign actors per se, exceptions being David Campbell (1989, 1992) science fields, and a number of sub-fields (including comparative politics and public policy, and Henrik Larsen However, we believe that taking states seriously is not the same as as well as IR). In terms of its links to the wider social sciences in general, the study of foreign privileging actors as the or unit of international political analysis. short, policy requires an engagement both with the literature on policy making in social psychology, we do not believe that such a focus entails committing the error of Studying state and with rational-actor models of policy making that originated in economic interpretations behaviour, an unavoidable dimension of foreign policy. does not make one a statist. of the policy With regard to the political science literature, much depends on how it Colin Hay's work on critical political analysis (Hay 2002) has been neatly adapted to apply is defined an aspect of state behaviour, foreign policy represents the policy making and to foreign policy by Paul Williams Following him, we consider that there are five unit behaviour involved in inter-state relations Therefore it can be distinguished as a form of relevant features of critical political analysis in the building of a non-statist foreign policy public policy from domestic affairs. foreign policy links into much of the litera- ture of public policy. with the notable difference that its targets are (usually) actors outside the analysis Critical foreign policy should be empirical without being this is to say that should domestic and studies and normative evidence, but within an explicit theoretical Within this context of interdisciplinarity we nevertheless believe that there is a special re- commitment that Empiricism implies that the analysis is in some way lationship between foreign policy and Rather like a distant cousin, FPA is often still referred which the evidence is not tainted by the theoretical and normative lenses through to as an IR sub-field As we noted above, it has always had a rather uneasy location between these 'facts' rather than seen as the ones to use.</p><p>STEVE AMELIA HADFIELD, TIM DUNNE INTRODUCTION 6 7 brought into This is be one of need to the Both structure contentious and debates agency within the humanities and social social sciences, world but at its base historical outcomes as though they were a given. In the words of former US Secretary most as Hollis and Smith (1991) put it. in the there are always of State Madeleine Albright: 'History happens forwards but is written the concern to tell. Thus we can either explain state behaviour as the result of the at least two of stories the international system. or see it as the outcome of policy making within Taken together, we believe that a critical approach to foreign policy offers significant po- structure (and Williams) stress that both agency and structure are involved in tential for looking at foreign policy within a wider notion of politics than has traditionally been the case within As a framework for thinking about foreign policy, the notion of a the foreign policy. Hay with decisions being made (agency) but always within a set of constraints critical approach as outlined in the preceding six points offers significant advantages over the (structure) limited perspectives represented by FPA. In sum, all theories of IR make assumptions about critical approach to foreign policy accepts a broad view of politics and avoids the state behaviour. The relationship between them and the study of foreign policy is absolutely A of seeing politics as only involved at the governmental level. Instead, states find unavoidable. Levering FPA artificially into various social science pigeonholes IS not a good danger themselves in a context in which their actions are being shaped by non-governmental idea. Better is an analysis of the broad dynamics of foreign policy. and the specific findings of organizations (NGOs) on the inside and transnational norms/social movements on the the subfield of FPA, in which both are subjected to the scrutiny of a limited number of prevail- outside. Therefore critical accounts of foreign policy move beyond the interrelationships ing IR viewpoints between governmental bodies and factions to look at a wider definition of the political realm, specifically looking at the role of individuals and groups in terms of who wins and Organization of the second edition who loses from foreign policy Studying foreign policy critically also means confronting important theoretical issues As Valerie Hudson makes clear in her opening chapter, since the 1950s FPA has sought an- to do with knowledge and reality. On the one hand, knowledge is constitutive in that swers to inter-state relations by looking at the three levels involved in foreign policy: individu- ideas/beliefs/discourses shape and constitute the world in which policy makers find als (psychological/sociological studies), groups (group-based analyses). and states themselves on the other hand, care must be taken to avoid accepting the leaders' (comparative foreign policy). This three-level analysis is very much the organizing theme of rationale as the cause of a particular action. All critically inclined scholars search for this book. Beginning with Hudson's own appraisal of the ups and downs of FPA, the text re- views the role of individuals, groups, and states using both FPA perspectives (Stein and Rob- gaps between words and deeds-moreover, such discrepancies allow academics to hold inson) and broad IR perspectives (Hill and leaders accountable to the claims and benchmarks contained in policy statements and What this text adds, and indeed is its key rationale, is an appreciation of the role of IR theory commitments in shedding light on the dynamics of state-to-state activity. FPA has of course ventured out The study of critical foreign policy recognizes the contingency of the political process. onto the high seas of middle-range theory with Rosenau as the first captain of theories that Decision-makers find themselves operating within parameters which constrain their 'mediated between grand principles and the complexity of Vast amounts of cross- freedom. but equally they do make decisions. Thus a critical approach accepts that things disciplinary data have been produced from the latter side of this equation. As Hudson points could always have been different-foreign policy is never simply the realm of necessity. out, whilst this data has been of significant benefit in generating new views on what consti- tutes a proper analysis of foreign policy in the American, British, and European schools, an To Hay's five points, we would add a sixth. impasse as to the right methods and tools has of late created something of a Being critical does not entail assuming bad faith about leaders and their reasons. of which, if not resolved, could further widen already divergent approaches. Analyses Responses to events often mean that there are no good or right choices, and available principles' has also lacked the benefit of a close association with the explicit axioms responsible scholarship needs to recognize the costs of non-decisions as well as the oms variables, thanks to Morthenthau's work on translating 'the maxims of nineteenth- to principally from IR. Carlsnaes reminds us that realism itself is capable of linking axi- price of decisive actions. For example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 President Kennedy made the controversial decision to set up a quarantine around (Guzzini century European 1998:1). diplomatic practice into more general laws of an American social Cuba This risked escalation of the crisis but, as he noted at the time, doing nothing it robust Realist, liberal, constructivist, and post-structural tenets can all shed equally was not an option. Similarly, in the case of the diplomacy over Iraq in 2002-2003, While explanations on the external behaviour of sovereign states. is very easy to believe that every move in the diplomatic game was part of a grand range the second it continues edition, like the first, does not attempt to produce a new type of middle- strategic plan. Saddam Hussein could have done far more to persuade the world possibly that was serious about disarmament; Britain could have delayed-or derailed entirely-the US desire for a punitive war. Decisions by leaders matter, not to at work in foreign as the first edition on fleshing out a clearer idea of the grand policy. The text is just as focused for action, and modes of implementation of foreign the key actors, structures, motives to engage with IR theory as the conceptual underpinning of and main source for this policy both as a form of state behaviour and as an intellectual principles quite often alternative policy responses were available to them but they chose albeit tion for the individual remains IR theory. As the following chapters retain field, and its advance In realizing that foreign policy is a realm of decisions and under conditions of constraint and uncertainty, we should remember not to treat and group-based analyses of but they are equally a keen determined apprecia- to</p><p>8 STEVE AMELIA HADFIELD TIM DUNNE INTRODUCTION 9 shed light on of the text lies in the advice first given by Rosenau, namely the inter-state dynamics of which foreign policy the is ultimately late James comprised There- IR approaches are helpful in testing the veracity of the assumptions that exist in fore to the uniqueness a robust integrated analysis several levels of analysis-from individual leaders the tripartite approaches of At the same time, a theory-based approach in no way pushes the provide international system-in understanding foreign policy' FPA back to seeing the role of the state as a 'metaphysical abstraction The realist, liberal, con- IR perspectives presented in the text is not merely to warm them over FPA and post-structural viewpoints espoused here shed light on the myriad dynamics The role is of to the generate conceptual pay-offs to students, analysts and practitioners. Our con- of state power and the motives behind state they do not resort to The The point this by illustrating the complementarity between individual, state, and structural evidence is found first in our four thematic chapters in which the realist, liberal, constructivist, tributors do of IR, and those same levels of analysis found in FPA As a result, the textbook is and post-structuralist approaches are used to explain a series of related foreign policy choices dynamics of an exercise in bridge-building Narrowing the gap between FPA and IR should covering national economic statecraft, and normative foreign respectively something bestow IR with a greater appreciation of the multilevel and multicausal dynamics The same IR-FP interface is found in each of the case Khong and Dunne tangle with (so ultimately comprehensively studied in FPA by Snyder and others), whilst granting FPA a clearer idea national security from the perspective of US neoconservatism and British foreign policy on well of 'grand as keeping both the conceptual and practical sides of foreign policy as clearly balanced as other words, finding appropriate connective tissue for both sides, as respectively, Narlikar with economic foreign policy, Hadfield with the overlap between national security and national resources, and Foot, and Aggestam with the role of norms changing the foreign policy perspectives of Canada, China, and the European Union, possible We have asked the contributors to the book not to assume that students have necessarily respectively Reflecting a world of emerging powers and regions, Stansfield examines the role of culture affecting the Arab-Israeli peace process, whilst the new chapters by McDonald and taken an to international relations Therefore part of the rationale for Tickner examine climate change in relation to Australian foreign and security and the opening with accounts of four dominant IR perspectives IS to ensure that students have a role of Brazil and Latin America in international political analysis, respectively grasp of realist, liberal, constructivist, and post-structural understandings of interests, In summary, we think that there are six main features of this First, as we hope we have commitments, and outputs. The second edition adds to the original conceptual lenses by made clear in this Introduction, our aim is to bridge the literature on FPA with wider theoreti- adding a new chapter on discourse analysis, all designed to shed light on the wider dynamics cal insights from Second, and related, contributions to the book demonstrate that there is of state behaviour and the specific tenets of FPA realism IS reviewed again by Wohl- no single approach to explaining and understanding foreign it is a varied field that forth not merely as the progenitor of the state, but as the conceptual foundation of statecraft, reaches out to many disciplines and draws on diverse theoretical groundings. Third, the book revealing more clearly the links between survival, the national interest, and national seeks to build knowledge about foreign policy on the basis of empirically informed theory security, as further illustrated by Schmidt As evidenced by many of our case studies, the real- and theoretically informed cases. Fourth, we have attempted to include studies on all three ist canon is alive and well and is working in the many ministries of foreign affairs. core focal points of FPA as identified by Hudson (group policy making, psychology, and state- Liberalism is again explored for its ability to produce a more sophisticated overview of level Fifth. this collection does not confine our thinking about foreign policy to dividuals, states, and structures. As Doyle points out, liberalism needs to be understood both the state; most of our contributors concur that many other types of organizations and as a foreign policy attitude and as a conceptual tool with which to deconstruct foreign policy actors are capable of constructing and pursuing foreign policies, and therefore we assume actions, shedding light on how ideas, and ideals (human rights, liberty, and de- that the kinds of account discussed in this book will be applicable to these other types of mocracy) connect to social forces markets) and political institutions (democracy. we have opened up for reflection the possibility of a critical account of foreign representation) which in turn directly affects foreign relations. policy-one which draws on a wider notion of politics explicitly guided by progressive norms, Constructivism takes further steps to open the black box of the state, permitting an in- and where policy makers are seen as having choices, albeit ones to be made within powerful depth overview of the myriad forces of power, influence, and interest Flockhart demon- Internal and external strates that constructivism possesses the capacity to understand how such as NATO, We hope that readers will find this a helpful and clear guide to thinking about foreign adapt in response to new Together, she and Carlsnaes illustrate the potential of an policy. The study of foreign policy is entering an exciting period of renewal, and we trust that IR-FP interface in their examination of individual policy making, the role of bureaucracies the theories, concepts, and case studies dealt with in this book will serve as a valuable road- and organizations (as first explored by and the activities of international society This their map which can help make sense of the choices and dilemmas facing actors trying to reach is magnified at the international level where, as Barnett, Axworthy, Dunne, and Hadfield ex- foreign policy plore, key norms are beginning to operate as a compass by which to guide foreign policies relative to national and international goals. Robinson's chapter on the discursive effect of the media's influence on foreign policy is a necessary complement to these ideas. The new chap- ter on discourse analysis by Hansen rounds out Section 1 not only by bringing the spectrum of IR up to date, but also persuasively arguing in favour of the need to systematically decon- struct the textual artefacts of foreign policy (e.g. speeches, statements, primary documents) to grasp more clearly the nature of what is and what is left unsaid.</p><p>Section 1 Foreign Policy Analysis: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives</p><p>1 The history and evolution of foreign policy analysis VALERIE M. HUDSON Chapter contents 13 Introduction: three paradigmatic works 17 Classic FPA scholarship (1954-1993) The psychological and societal milieux of foreign policy decision making 23 27 FPA self-reflection the late 1970s and 1980s 30 Conclusion: contemporary FPA's research agenda Reader's guide This chapter traces the evolution of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) as a subfield of Inter- national Relations (IR) from its beginnings in the 1950s through its classical period until 1993; it then sketches the research agenda of contemporary FPA, which is repre- sented by the other chapters in this volume. Three paradigmatic works, by Richard Snyder and colleagues, James Rosenau, and Harold and Margaret Sprout, laid the foundation of this In turn, these works created three main threads of re- search in FPA, focusing on the decision making of small/large groups, comparative foreign policy, and psychological/sociological explanations of foreign policy. These three primary areas of research have waxed and waned in importance to the subfield over the years. Current FPA scholarship explores linkages between these literatures, seeking both greater cross-level integration of explanation and new methodologies more appropriate to cross-level analysis. Introduction: three paradigmatic works What are the origins of foreign policy analysis (FPA)? In one sense, FPA-style work-that is, scholarship whose theoretical ground is human decision makers, acting singly or within groups-has been around as long as there have been historians and others who have sought to understand why national governments have made the choices they did regarding inter- state relations. (See Box 1.1). work within the field of International Relations per se is best dated back to the late 1950s and early 1960s. Three paradigmatic works arguably built the foundation of FPA. H.W. Decision Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics by Richard Snyder, Bruck, and Burton Sapin (1954: see also Snyder et al. reprinted in 2002).</p><p>14 VALERIE M. HUDSON CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS 15 BOX1.1 Key definitions Three paradigmatic works of foreign policy analysis POLICY The strategy or approach chosen by the national government to achieve its goals in its FOREIGN relations with entibes This includes decisions to do nothing Richard Snyder James Rosenau Harold and Margaret Sprout POLICY The observable artefacts of policy-specific actions and words used and the FOREIGN others the of policy may include the categorization of such behaviour making influence conflict cooperation which could be used to construct dats including Approach to the Study of of Foreign Policy by James of by along data FPS may include behaviour that was accidental of by the government, and h N Rosenau (a book chapter and Margaret expanded and International Politics by Richard C Snyder written in and publishing in form 1957 and then event addition decisions to do nothing may not leave any behavioural Thus there is between 1965 The Ecological Perspective on the concept of foreign policy and the concept of foreign policy behaviour Bruck and Burton Human with Special Reference POLICY ANALYSIS The subfield of international relations that seeks to explain foreign (1954 Snyder International Politics) foreign policy behaviour with reference to the theoretical ground of human decision 1963 in 2002) makers, acting singly and in groups The subfield has several Contributed a focus Development of actor-specific Foreign policy be explained reference to the (the a commitment TO look below the level of analysis to actor-specific the decision-making theory that would lead to the 3 commitment build actor-specific theory as the interface between actor-general theory and the process as part of the development of psychological political and rather than just propositions at the level of social of the individuals involved complexity the real foreign policy outputs middle-range theory in decision making a commitment to pursue multicausal explanations spanning multiple levels of analysis a commitment to utilize theory and findings from across the spectrum of social a commitment to viewing the process of foreign policy decision making as important as the output THEORY Theory that explains the behaviour of actors general. such as game theory ACTOR-SPECIFIC THEORY Theory that explains the behaviour of specific actors, such as FPA theory This type of theory may be generalizable but under specific scope conditions for applicability Actor-specific theory is a form of middle-range theory, in that it is more generalizable than insights derived from case studies but on the other has more severe scope conditions constraining its generalizability than actor-general theory However, given its nature, actor-specific theory allows for richer explanation and even prediction of the foreign policy behaviour of particular entities than does actor-general theory 'Pre-theories and Theones of Foreign Policy by James Rosenau (a book chapter written in 1964 and published in Farrell 1966). Man-Milieu Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics by Harold and Margaret Sprout expanded and revised in article form in 1957) and their 1965 book The Ecological Perspective on Human Affairs with Special Reference to International Politics). (See Box 1.2.) The work of Richard Snyder and his colleagues inspired researchers to look below the nation-state level of analysis to the players involved: We adhere to the nation-state as the fundamental level of analysis, yet we have focus discarded the state as a metaphysical abstraction. By emphasizing decision making as a central who we have provided a way of organizing the determinants of action around those officials setting act for the political society. Decision makers are viewed as operating in dual-aspect of that apparently unrelated internal and external factors become related in the actions ad- Richard Snyder leading a foreign policy seminar Source the decision makers. Hitherto, precise ways of relating domestic factors have not been Princeton University Princeton University Library. Library Princeton University Department of Rare Books and Special Collections. equately developed. (Snyder et al.</p><p>- - 17 to - making policy & the that - - is The policy with for a the and would for and - a for the - and - - the and making the is and they and they - to less e is again the to the the policy and theory policy analyse of and of and the general the in for the the of - - 11. from - through careful of to What were vitally to that between should not remain and of the the - rather be as was national information of the to the system understanding The Dear The stores of knowledge of the the The process of foreign was than policy an output The of / of (See 13) - the foundational paradigmatic works Between developed of research pathways (See were more temporally As shall - evident the early would stand the which would the and 4 temporary the mid to until they were the first bloom of FPA from the to of intellectual effort and Classic FPA scholarship (1954-1993) The Great and of the generation of work in FFA (1954-1973) along with in data was were the contributions of this time collection The second and -</p><p>18 VALERIE M. HUDSON CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS 19 BOX 1.4 Classical foreign policy analysis-the second generation Small-group decision making Refers to the process and structure of groups making foreign policy decisions. The groups that were studied ranged in size from very small groups to large organizations and bureaucracies. Insights from social psychology were incorporated into It was discovered that the motivation to maintain group consensus and personal accpetance by the group could result in a deterioration of decision-making quality Organizational process and bureaucratic politics Researchers began to study the influence of organization process and bureaucratic politics on foreign policy decision Organizations and bureaucracies put their own survival at the top of their list of priorities often they will seek to increase their relative strength It was found that the ulterior objectives of foreign policy decision 'players' influenced their decision making Comparative foreign policy Harold and Margaret Sprout who emphasized the psychological milieu of individual and group decision The subfield of comparative foreign policy (CFP) developed as a response to James Rosenau's challenge Source Paceton University Library Princeton University Department of Rare Books and Special to build a cross-national and multilevel theory of foreign policy Foreign policy as disparate Princeton University Library as warfare, treaty making, or diplomacy-these events could be compared and Data was collected on a variety of possible explanatory factors to determine patterns by which these independent variables were correlated. Researchers hoped to emerge with a grand unified theory of foreign policy had hoped. behaviour applicable to all nations and time periods. The empirical results were less than the protagonists Primary levels of analysis in FPA Cognitive processes Cognition, heuristic etc. Psychological influences on foreign policy decision making Leader personality and orientation Operational codes, motivations, psychobiography, etc. conditions, Increasing attention individual was directed to the mind of the foreign policy deasion maker Under certain stressful Small-group dynamics Groupthink newgroup etc. Also, the characteristics would become crucial in understanding how decisions are Interface of leader personality with small-group composition questions problem of of misperception was with potential disastrous consequences in relation to Organization process Incremental standard operating procedures. Implementation issues, etc war and Bureaucratic politics Turf, morale, inter-agency group etc Societal milieux Culture and foreign policy Identity and heroic histories, role theory, etc. Domestic political contestation Regime type, media, political interest groups, organized party The culture, societal history, context also came to the Researchers examined how far national contestation and electoral politics, etc. determined policy geography economics, political institutions, military power, attributes, and demographics, such as National attributes and foreign policy Geography, resources, economic factors, etc. realization that democracies The tended nature not of to regime fight with type one also another rose in prominence. particularly with the System effects on foreign policy Anarchy, distribution of regional balances of etc Though Group decision making generation of work from about 1974 to 1993 expressly built upon those foundations. follows Snyder and it IS always difficult to set the boundaries of a field of thought, the overview which which policy decisions and Palge; his of includes a representative sampling of classic works in the first and second generation choice/be- see Snyder groups making foreign and both examined how the of nations lead to differences in foreign policy to be theme in Paige their work, Paige collaboration with Glenn haviour. and put forward propositions in this regard that at least have the potential ranged from Numerous scholars echoed generalizable and applicable groups to the study of foreign policy making the study very large of foreign organizations policy making and in very small this</p><p>20 M. HUDSON CHAPTER THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION POLICY 21 Small group dynamics Economic Organizations (from the 1920s). First-period research showed foreign Some of the most theoretically long-lived work produced during this period centred on the policy making can be upended by the attempt to work with and through large organized consequences of making foreign policy decisions In small Social psychologists had governmental groups Organizations and put their own survival at the top of explored the unique dynamics of such decision setting before, but never In relation to their list of priorities, and this survival is measured by relative a other organi- eign policy decision making, where the stakes might be much higher. The most Important by the organization's budget, and by the morale of its The organi work Is that of Irving Janis, whose seminal Victims of Groupthink almost single-handedly will guard and to increase its turf and strength, as well as to preserve began this research In that volume, and using studies drawn specifically from the undiluted what it feels to be or Large organizations also develop realm of foreign Janis shows convincingly that the motivation to maintain group ard operating procedures (SOPS) which, while allowing them to react reflexively despite sensus and personal acceptance by the group can cause deterioration of decision-making their Inherent unwieldiness, permit little flexibility or creativity These may be the The empirical research of Leana Semmel (1982), Semmel and Minix (1979), Ing of more solutions of decision makers operating at levels higher than the Tetlock (1979), and others extended this research using aggregate analysis of experimental organization, but there is little alternative to the of policy by bureaucracy. The interface between objectives and implementation is directly met at this point, and there data as well as case studies. Groupthink becomes one of several possible outcomes In the may be substantial slippage between the two because of the incompatibility of the players' work of C.F. Hermann (1978) Hermann categorizes groups along several dimensions (size, perspectives. role of leader, rules for decision, autonomy of group participants), and is able to make general Although the articulation of this research agenda can be found in works such as Hunting- predictions about the likely outcome of deliberations in each type of ton (1960), Schilling et al. (1962), Hilsman (1967), and Neustadt (1970), probably the most The work of the second wave moved groupthink to both refine and extend our under- cited works are Allison (1971) and (1974) (additional works co-authored by Halperin standing of small-group Representative work includes Herek et (1987, 1989), McCau- include Allison and Halperin (1972) and Halperin and Kanter (1973)). In his famous Essence of ley Ripley (1989), Stewart et al. Hart (1990), Gaenslen and Hart et (1997) Decision, Graham Allison offers three cuts at explaining one episode in foreign policy-the The second wave also brought with it a new research issue. How does a group come to un- Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Investigating both the US and the Soviet sides of this case, Allison derstand, represent, and frame a given foreign policy situation? Works include those by George shows that the unitary rational-actor model of foreign policy making does not suffice to ex- Breslauer, Charles F Hermann, Donald Sylvan, Philip Tetlock, and James Voss (Vertzberger plain the curiosities of the crisis. Offering two additional models as successive 'cuts' at expla- 1990; Breslauer and Tetlock 1991; Voss et al. 1991; Billings and Hermann 1994). Turning to ef- nation, the Organizational Process Model and the Bureaucratic Politics Model (one of forts by individual scholars, we will highlight the work of Khong (1992) and Boynton (1991). intra-organizational factors, and one of inter-organizational factors), allows Allison to explain Boynton wishes to understand how human agents in groups come to agreement on the more fully what transpired. His use of three levels of analysis also points to the desire to inte- nature of a foreign policy situation. In his 1991 paper (cited above), he uses the official record grate rather than segregate explanations at different levels. of Congressional Committee hearings to investigate how committee members make sense of Halperin's book Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (1974) is an extremely detailed current events and policies. By viewing the questions and responses in the hearing as an un- amalgam of generalizations about bureaucratic behaviour, accompanied by unforgettable folding narrative, Boynton is able to chart how 'meaning' crystallizes for each committee examples from American defence policy making of the Eisenhower, and Johnson member, and how they attempt to share that meaning with other members and with those who are testifying Boynton posits the concept of triple' as a way to understand War years. It should be noted that bureaucratic politics research gained impetus from the Vietnam how connections between facts are made through plausible interpretation-in effect, ascer- amok ongoing during this period, because the war was seen by the public as defence policy run due, in part, to bureaucratic imperatives (e.g. Krasner 1971). taining which interpretations are plausible within the social context created by the hearings. Khong's 1992 book, Analogies at War, has a similar aim but with a different focus: the use of analogies to guide problem framing by foreign policy makers. In this particular work, Khong demonstrates how the use of conflicting analogies to frame the problem of Vietnam Comparative foreign policy led to conceptual difficulties in group reasoning about policy options. The 'Korea' analogy gained ascendance in framing the Vietnam problem, without sufficient attention being paid of Those foreign who took up James Rosenau's challenge to build a cross-national and multilevel subfield known as and subject that theory to rigorous aggregate created theory the to the incongruities between the two sets of circumstances. legacy of comparative foreign policy (CFP). It is in CFP that we see most aggregate-foreign in FPA's genealogy. Foreign policy could directly in policy empirical testing the Organizational process and bureaucratic politics foreign policy explanandum in behaviouralist American political analogue the 'vote' as the fun- damental policy behaviour could. Searching for an to not be studied This first period also saw the emergence of a strong research agenda that examined making influ- ternatively viewed event-the as who tangible artefact of the influence attempt that CFPers is proposed the al- ence of organizational process and bureaucratic politics on foreign policy decision and compared along does what to whom, in foreign policy, The foundations of this approach can be traced back to Weber's The Theory of social behavioural such as whether international positive affairs. or negative Events effect could was be</p><p>22 VALERIE HUDSON CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS (diplomatic. military, economics, 23 displayed. of resources has developed machine coding of being was events, leading to much the now be compared and collection and coding than was possible in used in the first wave of events as disparate as war, jour (Schrodt 1995). theoretically meaningful dependent variable was essential to the conceptualization of the This generalizations, one would have to theory-building conduct enterprise in To case studies were not an efficient testing nations and across breakthrough of methodology Integrated explanations cal conceptual the 'event', it from this standpoint possible explanatory factors In contrast to the other two types of FPA scholarship being discussed, CFP research aimed and variety determine possible to collect data explicitly at integrated multilevel explanations. The four most ambitious of these projects behavioural dimensions) the lysing the variance in event's patterns by which the these those of Brecher (1972) and his associates in the IBA Project (Wilkenfeld et al. 1980), were behaviour DON variables were correlated with foreign policy (see McGowan and (Rummel 1977), CREON (East et al. 1978; Callahan et 1982), and Harold Guetzkow's dependent Shapiro 1973). Indeed, to talk to some scholars involved in CFP research, it seemed that INS (Guetzkow 1963). Independent variables at several levels of analysis were linked by nothing less than GUT (grand unified theory) of all a foreign policy retical propositions (sometimes instantiated in statistical or mathematical equations) their for goal all was nations for all time. Some set of master equations would link all the relevant to properties or types of foreign policy behaviour. At least three of the four attempted to confirm lour independent and dependent, together, and when applied to massive databases or disconfirm the propositions by aggregate empirical testing. Unfortunately, the fact that the providing values for these variables, would yield R-squares approaching Although the empirical results were not all that had been hoped for ushered in a period of disenchantment goal was perhaps naive in its ambition, the sheer size of the task called forth immense with all things CFP, as we shall see in a later section. efforts in theory building, data collection, and methodological innovation that have few parallels in IR. The psychological and societal milieux of foreign policy Events data decision making The collection of events data was funded to a significant degree by the US driole and Hopple (1981) estimate that the government (primarily Defense Advanced The mind of a foreign policy maker is not a tabula rasa: it contains complex and intricately search Projects Agency and the National Science Foundation) provided over $5 million for related information and patterns, such as beliefs, attitudes, values, experiences, emotions, the development of events datasets during the time period 1967-1981 Generally traits, style, memory, national, and Each decision maker's mind is a micro- the collection effort went like this students were employed to comb through newspapers, cosm of the variety possible in a given society. Culture, history, geography, economics, politi- cal institutions, ideology, demographics, and innumerable other factors shape the societal chronologies, and other sources for foreign policy events, which they would then code cording to rules listed in their coding manuals, have their coding periodically checked for in- context in which the decision maker operates. The Sprouts (1956, 1957, 1965) referred to these as the milieu of decision making, and scholarly efforts to explore that milieu were both tercoder and finally punch their codings up on computer cards. For example, if we wanted to code an event such as USA invaded Afghanistan'. we would code a date innovative and impressive during this first period, Michael Brecher's work cited above (Bre- the actor (USA), the subject (Afghanistan), and some code or series of codes that cher 1972) belongs in this genotype as well. Brecher's The Foreign Policy System of Israel ex- would indicate A of codes might work like this: the code for might plores Unlike that nation's psycho-cultural environment and its effects on Israel's foreign be the '3' indicating that this was a hostile act, the '1' indicating it was a military act, and Brecher's integrative approach to the psycho-social milieu, most works in this geno- the 7' indicating more specific fashion invasion. Many other variables could also be coded, type examined either the psychological aspects of FPDM, or its broader societal for example, we might code that the United Nations facilitated the act by sponsoring a rity Council Resolution, we might link in previous events such as Mullah Omar's refusal to turn Individual characteristics in Osama bin Laden, and so forth. Events data sets, then, contain thousands or even millions of lines of code, each of which Is a foreign policy 'event' planatory Would there be a distinct field of foreign policy analysis without this most micro of all ex- The acronyms of some of these events data projects live on: some because the data are still human levels? Arguably It is in the cognition and information processing of an actual being collected (e.g. Gerner et al. 1994) (some collection is funded by the DDIR (Data Devel- agent that all the explanatory levels of FPA are in reality integrated. What sets FPA opment for International Research) Project of the NSF), and others because the data are still pelling more mainstream IR is this Insistence that, as Hermann and Kegley it, corn- useful as a testing ground for (the World Event/Interaction Survey), COP. Political explanation foreign policy) cannot treat the decider (1994:4). puti DAB (the Conflict and Peace Data Bank), CREON (Comparative Research on the Events of psychology high can assist us in understanding the decider. Under certain conditions- Nations), and so forth The Kansas Event Data System (KEDS) is more of a second-wave effort, characteristics dominant position of the head of state in FPDM-the personal of the individual will become crucial in understanding foreign policy choice.</p><p>VALERIE M. HUDSON CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY AND 24 was a influence EVOLUTION significant OF on FOREIGN policy (see Lasswell, The work 1930, Policy (1968) is The on cognitive constraints was informed by the work of an of Foreign excellent 25 pioneers of political survey of Herbert Simon (1985) on bounded de Rivera's The apply psychological and social psychological Joseph theory 1978 and 1986) on cognitive bias, and Kahneman of early study of leader personality to et al (1982) and integration effort effects cognitive and psychological studies with Leites important which foreign policy Another originating (1951), and appeared refined and 1980s dealt with a diversity of motivations of an leaders the concept of operational this area of research-Alexander important figures in cognitive scripts, and schemas of the the political George maps, Etheredge (Shapiro and tended by one code identifying core beliefs of Carbonell 1978), cognitive style (Suedfeld and Bonham Tetlock leader's estimation the 1976, 1977); life (1969) Defining an the world, the of his Good edited collections experience or her (Stewart and of the time include of leader about the as well as an exploration of the preferred means power to 1977, Walker and Falkowski (1979) (1977) change Johnson 1977) It should style of pursuing goals by no means confined to his work on noted that George's suggestions on methodological issues (see George National and societal characteristics offered useful on process he has of abstract theorizing versus on the demerits actor-specific theory Kal Holsti's (1970) elucidation of national role conception spans tracing (George and on the need to bridge the gap between and theory the social With this concept, Holsti seeks to capture how a nation views (George Smoke foreign policy (George 1993, 1994) role in the international arena. Operationally, Holsti turns to elite perceptions of national and practice work of in Margaret G Hermann is likewise an attempt to typologize leaders with spe- arguing that these perceptions are arguably more salient to foreign policy choice The reference to foreign policy dispositions A psychologist by she was also in- of national role is also influenced by societal character, a product of the nation's Perception volved cific in a CFP project (CREON) However, the core of her research is leaders' personal process. Differences here can lead to differences in national behaviour as well (e.g. socialization Broderson characteristics (Hermann 1978) Using a modified operational code framework in 1961; Hess 1963; Merelman Renshon 1977; Bobrow et al. 1979). The methodology conjunction with content analysis, she is able to compare and contrast leaders' beliefs, mo- national role conception was continued in the 1980s by Walker (1987) others (Wish 1980; of Cottam and Shih 1992; Shih 1993). decisional and interpersonal styles Furthermore, Hermann integrates this information into a more holistic picture of the leader, who may belong to one of six distinct The study of culture as an independent variable affecting foreign policy was just beginning 'foreign policy Orientation allows her to make more specific projections about to be redeveloped near the end of the 1980s after petering out in the 1960s (Almond and a leader's behaviour In a variety of circumstances. In the second wave of research, scholars Verba 1963; Pye and Verba 1965). Culture might have an effect on cognition (Motokawa began to explicitly compare and contrast the findings of different personality assessment 1989): it might have ramifications for structuration of institutions such as bureaucracies schemes (Winter et al 1991; Singer and Hudson 1992, Snare 1992, see also Winter (Sampson 1987). Conflict resolution techniques might be different for different cultures as well (Cushman and King 1985; Pye 1986; Gaenslen 1989). Indeed, the very processes of policy Post 1990). The role of perceptions and images in foreign policy was a very important research agenda making might be stamped by one's cultural heritage and socialization (Holland in this first generation of FPA The work of both Robert Jervis and Richard Cottam deserves Etheredge 1985; Lampton 1986; Merelman 1986; Leung 1987; Banerjee 1991; Voss and Dorsey 1992) special mention here Jervis's Perception and Misperception in International Politics (1976) and The study of the role of societal groups in foreign policy making can be seen as an out- Cottam's Foreign Policy Motivation: A General Theory and a Case Study (1977) both explicate the potentially grave consequences of misperception in foreign policy situations by explor- growth of the more advanced study of societal groups in American domestic politics. Some- ing its roots. Deterrence strategies can fail catastrophically if misperception of the other's times an individual scholar used theory developed for the American case to explore the more diverse universe of the international system. For example, Robert Dahl's volume, Re- intentions or motivations occur (see also the stimulus-response models of Holsti et al gimes and Oppositions provided the key theoretical concepts necessary to analyse the (1968)). Like Janis, Halperin, and others, the work of Jervis and Cottam is consciously pre- relationship between domestic political pressure by societal groups and foreign policy scriptive both include advice and suggestions for policy makers. Work in the late 1980s choice by the government. Other more country- and region-specific case studies were also continuing this tradition included scholarship by Janice Gross Stein, Richard Ned Lebow, Ole developed see Deutsch et al. (1967), Hellman (1969), Dallin (1969), Chittick (1970). Hughes Holsti, Alexander George, Deborah Welch Larson, Betty Glad, and Stephen Walt (as well as (1978), and Ogata (1977), among others. In the late 1980s, a new wave of thinking began to Jervis et 1985; Larson 1985, 1993; M. Cottam 1986, Glad 1989; George and Smoke 1989; explore the limits of state autonomy in relation to other societal groups in the course of Holsti 1989, Lebow and Stein 1990; Walt 1992). An excellent example of work in this pe- policy making. The work of Putnam (1988) on the two-level game of foreign and domestic riod is that of Richard Herrmann (1985, 1986, 1993), who developed a typology of stereotyp- policy was paradigmatic for establishing the major questions of this research Other ical images with reference to Soviet perceptions (the other as 'child', as 'degenerate', etc.) and excellent work includes Evans et al. (1985), Hagan (1987), Levy (1988), Lamborn and Mumme began to extend his analysis to the images held by other nations, including American and (1989), Levy and Vakili (1989), and Mastanduno et al. (1989). A second wave of research in Islamic this can be seen in the work of Kaarbo (1993), Skidmore and Hudson and Van</p><p>CHAPTER THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS 77 for an interesting combination However, in the second-wave one notable exception to all the analysis of the imperatives and their effect on ous years burst forth upon the scene-democratic peace theory Democracies it previ. tend not to fight one though they non-democratic countries as often was as He has compiled an extensive This appeared to be an example of how a difference in polity type other The of political with special reference duced a difference in foreign policy behaviour (Russett 1993a.b) This has been particularly No. The set includes regimes for 38 nations explore the effects of political opposition on foreign do democracies not fight one another? Here we find more abstract theorists of war Why interesting bridging question for FPA and IR (and examined further in Chapter Three) is is able to show, for that the and Zinnes 1991. Morgan Bremer Dixon Ray 1993, and Russett 1993) internal of a regime has substantially less effect on foreign policy behaviour wrestling with a question that leads them into FPA waters and into with FPA scholars (Hagan Hermann and Kegley 1995) opposition to the regime than or also ascertained by probing elite and mass opinion If is possible to see the International system as part of the psycho-social onto the voter-attitude studies of American which foreign policy decision making takes place. then the work of much of mainstream IR usually to of democratic nations (especially where survey this time can be seen as contributing to the Foreign Policy Analysis research The research Though results were these were used to investigate the limits of the so. of system type, as elucidated by Kaplan may depend on the number of called is that public opinion is incoherent and lacking poles in the the distribution of power among poles, and the rules of the system game unity on foreign issues and thus that public opinion does not have a large on that permit its This structure may then determine to a large extent the range of the nations conduct of foreign policy (see Railey Almond 1955: Camp. permissible foreign policy behaviour of nations. The work of Waltz was extremely 1964 Converse 1900) Opinion data collected during the Vietnam War in its description of the effects of an anarchical world system on the behaviour of its member period appears to have as a catalyst to re-examine this question Caspary (1970) and states (see also Hollmann 1961; Rosecrance Singer et 1972) FPA seemed not to Achen (1975) found more stability in American public opinion concerning foreign policy and emphasize this type of primarily because the variation in behaviour during the involvement than their Mueller (1973) used the War to time when certain system Is maintained cannot be explained by reference to system show that although the public may change their opinions on issues. they do so ture because the structure has not changed Explanation of that variation must be found at orrational reasons and Rosenau (1979) and Mandelbaum and Schneider (1979) used lower levels of where variation in the explanations can be Here, then, is survey data to identify recognizable ideological positions to which the public subscribes on one of several sources for the notable lack of Integration between actor-general systems foreign policy Alarge amount of research was undertaken to show that public and elite theory in IR and FPA opinion does affect governmental foreign policy decision making (see Cantril Verba Graber 1968 and Brody Hughes Yankelovich 1979, Beal and FPA self-reflection in the late 1970s and 1980s 1984) The study of the effect of national attributes political accountability on foreign policy was in a theoretical In the Sprout A period of critical self-reflection in FPA began In the late 1970s and continued until the mid but was out by scholars and with methods more be placed the Rosenau effects were felt unevenly across with CFP being affected the most. is here (if you exclude pre-Rosenau writers such as The propensity to be involved in that we see the most both theoretical and methodological, which will be discussed war was usually the foreign policy dependent variable of choice In this work (see Rummel later In decision-making studies there was a period of rather slow growth because of Kean and McGowan 1973 and Hermann Salmore and odological The Information requirements for conducting A high-quality Salmore 1978 for a more holistic see Korany 1986) of group or bureaucratic analysis of a foreign policy choice are one were not part The questions raised by these are Are large nations more likely to from the group or bureaucracy In question, detailed accounts of what preferably war than small nations? Are more likely to go to war than poor ones? a variety of primary source would be necessary Because of security regimes more bellicose than democracies? Statistical manipulation of aggregate this erations In foreign policy. such information not usually available for many years until at best a blunt instrument was unable to uncover any lawlike generalizations on and The question facing decision-making scholars became possible to be score (though for an and hard-to-classify treatment of the multilevel causes more retically and policy If one Is relegated to doing case studies of events twenty years or effects of see Beer (1981)) Political economy research on the effects of economic ments old? to If 10, how? If not, how is it possible to around the high data tures of and conditions on foreign policy choice are fairly the of IPE and the cut Nell Scholars say something meaningful about more recont events? (See P Anderson 1987) Richardson FPA did not mix for reasons explored below However, the works of bureaucratic wrestling with this Issue came up with two basic responses (a) patterns in group/ Katzenstein and Charles Kegley Richardson and Kegley 1980) and Peter both processes can be Isolated through historical case studies, on the basis of which 1985) are notable as exceptions to this general predictions of and general recommendations for present-day foreign policy</p><p>28 VALERIE HUDSON CHAPTER THE HISTORY AND OF FOREIGN POLICY 29 decision making can be made (b) innovative at-a-distance indicators of closed group/bo to be behaviouralists and to be scientific and a hallmark of this process can be developed which allow for more specific explanation/prediction aggregate empirical testing of cross-nationally applicable generalizations across large resultant foreign policy choice values of N At the same time they were fiercely committed to unpacking the black work at the psychological level actually expanded during this time but work box of decision making the detail of their explanans grew and with it their rejection the arguably contracted on some research fronts The reason for this bifurcation of idealization of Push had to come to shave at some point CFP in the genotype was methodological psychology provided ready-made and effective tools methods demanded in theory CFP theory demanded nuance and detail in for the study of political but political science did not offer the foreign policy method lyst the same advantage To understand how the broader cultural-politica context To quantify or not to quantify? A of large testing is the need for more within nation-state contributes to its governmental policy making (whether domestic a precise measurement of indeed quantification of to linear foreign) is perforce the domain of comparative politics 11 is hopefully not regression and correlation techniques well as to mathematical ever that the theories and methods of comparative politics in this period were not quite as differential equations the independent of OF included highly developed as those of psychology The attempt to graft statistical analyses non-quantifiables as perception culture all placed in A onto the underdeveloped theory of comparative politics of the 1970s and 1980s was dynamic and evolving stream of human and reaction that might not be adequately a failure More successful were efforts spin existing comparative politics work on a captured by relationships To leave such explanatory nation to the cause of explaining factors that contribute to that nation's foreign policy-for variables out seems to defeat the very purpose of to leave in example borrowing techniques from American politics (such as public opinion surveys) to by forcing the date into quasi-interval level to do to the study domestic political imperatives In the USA on foreign policy issues Still missing were substance that CFP sought to capture CF Pers began to ask whether their methods were conceptual and methodological tools necessary to push past the artificial barner between them in achieving their theoretical goals or preventing them from achieving comparative politics and international relations that stymied theory development One of the those goals greatest leaps forward in the present period of FPA is the innovative work begun on 3. A final Inconsistency centred in policy As mentioned CFP had the Two-level game (Putnam 1988) As mentioned CFP dwindled in the 1980s Indeed the very term comparative foreign received large amount of money from the government to data was CFP researchers successfully argued that such an investment would information of sound quaint and naive Membership of the Comparative Foreign Policy Section of the International Studies Association plummeted Public vivisections took while to foreign policy Specifically events data would be used to scholarship became Both sympathetic and systems that would alert policy to in the making around the (as they do not also read the same sources from which data criticism abounded Ashley Munton Cast Kegley " 1937 Hermann and Peacock 1987 Smith 1987) At one point. in exasperation EWAMS Computenzed decision and analysis packages with began to (1980 himself a CFPer, CFP risks being labelled a cult of methodological XAIDS Information on Local CACIS (Computer Conflict Information Handling (Early Warming and System) This searing and self-criticism revealed a number of inconsistencies in the approach which needed to be sorted out before any progress could be contemplated from other sources these could never live up to their the Happle Unfortunately Management Executive (see and The blocks included the following currence The and so were nothing without the and could be by and methodological explicated above 1 You can't have your parsimony and it, The tension between the desire of such is that at the large level nations of but that some Citers for 3 grand unified theory and the assumption that level detail necessary if one really wants to explain and predict foreign policy directions Was the research and to Again than McGowan more behaviour became Rosenaus article (Rosensu time a goal two from this vantage sets the genotype up for an inevitable which closely specific at at To what should we aspire richly comprehensively grand theory (which of country but researched of a few cases conceptually abstract as and a would not be would was the renderings of thousands of events? can see the in detailed comprehensively researched of thousands that always 5 a research qualify you were (1) in of events a would be Over before had collected enough the a that the by But many rejected the study approach as too like the research of the by requirement of of</p><p>CHAPTER HISTORY AND EVOLUTION or FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS 31 to come down from the of grand theory to theory and to capture commitment to build middle-range theory as the Interface between more of the particular theory and the complexity of the real world, to partially is not to completely (should downgraded to better commitment to pursue multicausal explanations spanning multiple levels of This prescribes reduction the level of generality 10 that more commitment to theory and findings from across the spectrum of social bounded and are tested More of 1/10 and can be captured reduced a commitment to viewing the process of foreign policy decision making as important level of and 12 19) the output thereof to this arguably original and the community had to reach Nevertheless evolved In the sophistication of the questions asked, and In the to return vision the conference on Directions the Study of foreign means of answering those questions ability to now perhaps held at Ohio State University in May probably represents finalization of more promising relation to future potential than any other the the resulting volume, see also and Infeld (1918) commented that formulation of a problem is often more essential than solution which may be merely a matter of is skill To false new new to regard old problems from new angle, requires creative Imagination and works real advance Conclusion: contemporary FPA's research agenda III order to this let examine some of the new questions that have evolved from the old As detailed overview of FPA scholarship from 1993 to the present can be found being liberated from the late 1980s, the world being Hudson (2005, 2007). now turn to the micro-levels of analysis and then move toward liberated from the match of the Cold War This was a felicitous for and was an added source of for research agenda The significance of this temporal can be understood by remembering what types of IR theory were ascendance New questions the time neorealist systems structure theory and rational choice modelling Indeed finance was in overwhelming that on taking an IR theory course during this one would When studying the effects of Individual leaders on foreign policy the key think these two were the summum of all thinking in relations (at least the USA) This state of for American thinkers America was one of preference policy for through determining effect on choice of advisors, preference for foreign question is whether we can extend our understanding of how a leader's personality affects power the War system A bipolar lends of new schemes for analysing leader personality and its effects? What are the analytical certain group processes, and 10 forth? can we Integrate different relatively well to abstract actor-general analysis focused primarily on the constraints by the system actor-general theory was more practical for scholars shape the In neuroscience for How do various leader personality types during the Cold War, because little was known of the black box of the closed At the structure and process of groups serving them? nese and foreign policy decision making bodies an However, when the bipolar system with the fall of the Sovict bloc change group come to share and How are options developed? by group? How are group situations level, must then ask how problems are actually recognized the important theoretical discovery was made is impossible explain or predict system uncer lished Interpretation? an interpretation of the situation? How does a How does a on the basis of system-level variables Along the same In a period of great deadly enhanced or dampened17 How How does a group learn? How is the group's group potential change for an estab- tainty and lack of empirically grounded to rational choice equations Is involves terms of the usefulness of such analysis Our understanding of the collapse the come culture? players the does group How memory group affect structure group and action? process How a function do groups creativity of be- 10. variables more to be found in the personalities of and the the activities of transnational groups such as the Lutheran Church and the Green leaders the societal and level sources of society of change and political in shared competition we explore whether can uncover publics perceptions? For struggles between various domestic political players. such as the military, the desire to change how serve do Party the etc. the role of economics and societal needs in sparking the as the that theoretical national attitudes of change etc With the fall of the Iron Curtain the need for an complement society who come between conception be effect to lead a on foreign 11 and society make and the re-config- its Individual policy of members domestic foreign mainstream IR theory became stark in clarity circle policy decisions? of FPA in the post Cold War era retains the distinctive theoretical that and specify the political effects competition? Can we Can specify the policy choice? on How domestic politics of the complete the can theoretical cated its Included among these a commitment to look below the nation-state level of analysis to actor-specific information policy? litical system on we foreign discern policy? culture's What influence is the effect on of systemic change of Does a certain type on foreign foreign of po-</p><p>CHAPTER THE HISTORY AND OF FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS 33 32 VALERIE M HUDSON Methodologically there are just as many key questions to be considered These Neoclassical realism to cross the divide from the IR side to the FPA while be- events data be re-conceptualized to be of use to contemporary Can is moving in the opposite direction methods created simulate human decision making as a means of integrating complex Neoclassical realism is premised on the understanding that variables constrain non-quantifiable data? Can we think of non-arithmetic ways to relate Can rational facilitate the ability of all types of states-great powers as well as lesser states-to respond choice models be altered to accommodate actor-specific with regard to utility to systemic " al 2009 While the power distribution within a system choice and choice constraints? Can we create models that will allow to use as may bound grand strategy the implementation of this strategy through decisions by foreign Inputs the actor-specific knowledge generated by country/region experts? When is the detail policy executives concerning threat assessment risk and mobilization of domestic resources. of actor-specifics necessary and when is actor-general theory sufficient to explain and project public support simply cannot be inferred from the level Historical process- FPDM? How could one Instantiate model of the Can analysis or tracing is the preferred methodology of this school interpretivism be used to the dynamics of evolving understanding In FPDM? Behavioral IR. on the other takes as its touchstone the field of behavioural econom- associated with the work of such scholars as Richard Thaler Walker and his co-authors define the approach as a social-psychological analysis of world which emplys a gen- An Atlantic divide? systems theory role to the understanding of actors. and While there are new efforts to both catalogue and promote the analytical study of foreign relations that constitute foreign policy and international relations (Walker et al 2011 In policy the Global South (Brummer 2011, Giacalone 2011, Zhang 2011). at this point such other words, behavioural IR seeks to integrate the external world of events with the internal study predominantly of Atlantic origins This raises the question of whether there are world of beliefs by examining strategic moves within dyads The operational codes of the two portant differences in the way such studies are conducted the USA compared with such actors are deciphered by quantitative content analysis of leader and then J theory of to which an affirmative answer can be given In a recent overview of that strategic each game moves (TOM) is employed to determine (at an abstract level) the next move differences (Hadfield and Hudson 2011) the authors point out several distinctions between The use of actor the dyad will take and how their game will resolve over sequential FPA (American) and what they term AFP (the analysis of foreign policy European) This of Interest to the readers of this volume for about half of its authors are American and tempts to and actor-specific theorizing which like interesting amalgam of a game-theoretic logic informed by unit-level characteristics is an about half are European classical realism bridge the divide between FPA and IR Noteworthy the fact realism, Hadfield and Hudson note a greater emphasis on cognitively oriented theories in goal-are working and such behavioural IR-research programmes with the that neo- in AFP as well as the more frequent use of quantitative methods by Americans and historical cases possibly communicate with divergent one another methodological traditions if they bridging could process-tracing by Europeans They also note a clear preference for the use of American bears pre- These But all that are a topic for new the future by American which while not unexpected and also also the Chi. some of you will be and involved approaches to work be dictable consequences for For example. Zhang (2011) finds that whereas in in time of new is a exploring Doubtless case. being and being 'practical' are not oxymoronic another in FPA-3 nese American-inspired theory, such personality orientations are seen as precluding one Hadfield and Hudson also note a greater sense of community among American FPA scholars in which they attribute to the small number of graduate programmes training FPA of separation Key points that country they are all likely to know one another within one or two degrees Turning to the European there are almost no graduate programmes that that and so as yet scholars have not been able to create a critical social mass that prerequisite for an epistemic community Hadfield and Hudson suggest more theoretically inclusive than FPA has been to embracing not only making but also grand theory and constructivist approaches For example one to see a reference to the work of Bhaskar in American FPA literature while might be very likely in AFP work New attempts to bridge IR and FPA the Also fairly recent in origin are sustained organized attempts to bridge and 12 The two that we will mention in this section are " 2009) and behavioural IR (exemplified by Walker</p><p>34 VALERIE M. HUDSON Questions What the of 2 What the difference between foreign policy and foreign policy behaviour? Realism and foreign policy 3. are the primary levels analysis examined FPA? WILLIAM WOHLFORTH 4. What Richard and his colleagues contribute to FPA's foundations? 5. What James to FPA's foundations? What and Margaret Sprout contribute to FPA's foundations? Chapter contents is events data and how used in FPA? Introduction 8. What is comparative foreign policy What is realism? 9. did FPA enter period of sell reflection in the late 1970s and early and what was the The development of realist theories 10. What of questions are being asked In FPA research today? How effective and/or necessary are Realist analysis of foreign policy bridging techniques between IR and FPA? Using realism in analysing foreign policy Conclusion: and analysing foreign policy Further reading Hermann, and CW (1987). The Comparative Study of Foreign Policy: Reader's guide Perspectives on the International Studies Notes, This chapter shows how familiarity with realist theory This is an interesting piece from a point of as it attempts to engage international The main challenge is to two that political economy with FFA tension with each other its firm grounding centures (ed.) (2003). Foreign Policy Analysis in International Studies Review, and its aspiration to create powerful general that and This special of ISR features variety of FFA scholars discussing the future prospects of FPA the setting in which foreign pace The branch of realist al the field of study two aspects of the realist tradition and thus for of Gerner. DJ (1992). Foreign Policy Exhilarating Intriguing policy. The following key questions are addressed International Studies Notes 18(4). piece IS an summary of scholarship up until the end of the Cold War What realism? Hudson V.M (2007) Foreign Policy Analysis Classic and Contemporary Theory (New York: How it applied to the analysis and practice foreign Rowman and What are the main n applying not only covers the history of FPA but also seven levels of analysis. as well as a What is a useful set of guidelines for and discussion efforts in the field to sharpen the of L Hey and Haney PJ (1995) Foreign Policy Analysis Continuity and Change in Second Generation (Englewood NJ Prentice Hall) served as 2 textbook in many FPA classes from 1995 to and includes chapters on levels of well subjects such events data Introduction the Online Resource Centre that accompanies this book for more information Realism the foundational school of thought about international around national others are oriented follows that any foreign policy who to make of As Relations (12) theory must understand realism. this not 20 this chapter demonstrates the realist school can be understood is a body and related arguments that flow from very small set of how the political works Used with in application to the complexity world can substantially sharpen the of</p><p>WILLIAM WOHLFORTH CHAPTER 2 REALISM AND FOREIGN POLICY 36 37 To apply realism to FPA, one has to bridge the gap that divides highly general, Waltz 'The web of social and political life is spun out of inclinations and Incentives, theory from the analysis of specific cases. Realism itself embodies this tension deterrent threats and Eliminate the latter and the ordering of society reflecting the desire to be both realistic grounded in actual foreign policy practice) and depends entirely on the former-a utopian thought impractical this side of Eden' (Waltz theoretical aspiring to general timeless Realists seck to distil the accumulated 186). wisdom of generations of foreign policy practitioners into general theories of IR Realism's basic conceptual foundations are derived from the close observation of lived politics. But In If one believes the world generally works by these rules, then many important conse- seeking to construct and apply a reality-based theory, realists constantly face the challenge of quences follow for how one thinks about international that the main groups with cycling between the nuanced of real foreign policy situations and the razor-sharp which people identify-be they tribes, empires, or nation-states-will exert a major assumptions and deductions of influence on human that the group's collective however defined. will be cen- In this chapter I show that realism's promise for the analysis of foreign policy stems fromits tral to its politics, that necessity as the group interest defines it will trump any putatively twin commitments to particular and general knowledge, and that most of the pitfalls of ap- versal morality and and thus that humankind IS unlikely ever to wholly transcend plying realism derive from a failure to get this balance right I outline an approach to realist power politics through the progressive power of reason. theory designed to connect the insights of general theory to the details and uncertainty of This way of thinking about IR leads immediately to an identifiably realist approach to for- analysing specific foreign policy This approach reflects a sustained effort on the eign policy an orientation towards the most powerful groups the most resource and part of a new generation of scholars to gain the analytical benefits of realist theory without influential) at any given time (today this means major powers like the USA or China), a scepti- falling prey to its potentially misleading over-generalization. To understand this new ap- cism towards professed aims of foreign policy other than the state interest: a tendency to however one first needs to know what realism is, how it has developed over the question the ability of any state's foreign policy to transcend power and a penchant and how the general theories that have developed as part of the realist canon have for looking beyond rhetoric to the power realities that realists expect nearly always underlie been used to analyse foreign policy policy. These precepts represent a simple realist checklist for FPA look for where the power is. what the group interests and the role power relationships play in reconciling clashing What is realism? Certain types of thinkers tend to share similar bets about how the world Cntics like to say that the kind of person most likely to accept the core realist assumptions a congenital Realism a school of thought based on three core assumptions about how the world pessimist and cynic Realists counter that these assumptions are simply realistic-based on the dispassionate observation of human affairs the way they are, as opposed to the way we might Groupism Humans face one another mainly as members of groups. To survive at wish them to be. There is a degree of truth to both views, and they add up to produce a unity anything above subsistence level. people need the cohesion provided by group of realist thought stretching from Thucydides to Morgenthau, and yet that very same in-group cohesion generates the potential for conflict with other groups. Today the most important human groups are nation-states, and the Waltz Even though the thinkers indelibly associated with realism are a highly diverse lot. and most Important source of in-group cohesion 15 nationalism. For I shall tions even though their ideas often contradict each other. the threads of those three core assump- use the term 'states' henceforth it is important to stress that realism makes tie them all together into a coherent intellectual Reading any of the writings of no assumption about the nature of the polity It may apply to any social setting where the any of these thinkers concerning the foreign policies of their day. one immediately discerns To unmistakably realist approach to foreign policy identified groups interact Egoism Self-interest drives political Although certain conditions to to these same basic But the focus here on the use of scholarly theory reflect be sure realism is more than academic It is also a tradition of tends can facilitate altruistic behaviour egoism is rooted in human When push comes to shove and ultimate trade-offs between collective and self-interest must be scholars the analysis of foreign policy For that it IS important to be clear about how transform the basic assumptions about the world into theories And that demands egoism tends to trump As the classic realist adage has 'Inhumanity is just three distinct about what we mean by the word 'theory' Confusingly. scholars use 'theory' to refer to humanity under realism such things realism itself (a large and complex school of thought). subschools within Power-centrism Power is the fundamental feature of Once past the hunter- gatherer human affairs are always marked by great Inequalities of power in both or the and specific realist theones like the balance of the security realist as neorealism (smaller but still complex schools of thought fitting within the senses of that term social influence or control (some groups and individuals always pressures offence-defence balance (all propositions about patterns of relations states or an outsized influence on politics) and resources (some groups and individuals are always 'theory' for facing specific a particular state) In this chapter. I keep these things reserving among the term disproportionately endowed with the material wherewithal to get what they want) Key The foreign propositions or These academic to politics in any area is the interaction between social and material an interaction that unfolds in the shadow of the potential use of material power to coerce. As Kenneth theories very policy helpful analyst indeed may well be sceptical of realism general are but still find specific real-</p><p>CHAPTER of realist theories The development about the assumptions and what they the conditions, could lead very different from realism's three core assumptions of proceed theories 311 abstract manner Waltz's ignored important variations Trademark realist most general of all these and the The first and one and stated simply if human affairs and technology Depending on the exact are character proceed can alist ideas could generate widely disparate implications about the dynamics from which most and power then politics is likely to be conflictual unless politics Out of this realization were borne two each which by central authority enforce order When no authority which can enforce agree on the basic of there some condition call anarchy-any state can resort to force to get what it Defensive realists reasoned that under very common conditions the ments Even if state can be sure that no other state will take up arms there is no tial of anarchy 12 attenuated Proceeding from the core realist assumption About wants against the possibility that one might do so tomorrow Because no state can rule these theorists argued that the stronger group identity the modern guarantee this states to arm themselves against this contingency With all states thus ism-the harder is to conquer and subjugate other groups the conquest the armed out politics takes on A different Disputes that would be easy to settle if states could more secure all states can be Similarly technology may make conquest on some higher authority to enforce on agreement can escalate to war in the absence of hard to contemplate the conquest of that have the capacity to with rely such authority Therefore the classic realist theoretical argument is that anarchy renders the clear weapons Thus even accepting all of about is be security of states problematic and potentially conflictual and is a key underlying cause of war secure an anarchic under these of conditions states could be To move from this very general argument about the potential importance of power and ways of defending themselves without threatening or could otherwise conflict in IR to any real foreign policy situation requires three a knowledge of theoreti- peaceful resulting in an system with more for schools within realism familiarity with specific realist perhaps most Impor. peace than many realists previously thought The result was to push to made clarity about how theories and conditions are related states for the domestic/ideational causes of war and peace Offensive realists, by were more persuaded by the conflict generating potential of anarchy They reasoned that with no authority to enforce Theoretical schools within realism states could never be certain that any peace-causing today would remain the future. Even if conquest may seem hard today to technology or The development of realist thought can be seen as a series of refinements, amendments, group there is no guarantee against the prospect that another 1 qualifications and extensions of the basic argument For scholars often lump to- some fiendish device for overcoming these Given this all realist thought from Thucydides to the middle years of the Cold War as classical be confident of their security and must always view other with realism They describe distinctions within the massive classical realist canon by reference to picion As a states are often tempted to or otherwise strengthen individual The classical realicts all sought to translate the distilled wisdom of and/or weaken in order to survive over the long The to the tions of practitioners and analysts into very general they were not always classic realist argument about the competitive nature of under of the clear about when their theories applied specific situations as opposed to general patterns properties of states This in the classical writings led to endless debates about what was actually As clear and elegant as neorealism and its immediate were being claimed for any particular theory just how relevant they were to any given foreign policy problem interest in the scientific approach to the study of politics grew (especially in the defining the single best and most universal formulation of their theory that to when Kenneth Waltz sought to revivify realist thinking by translating some core realist ideas into as if the development of realism had taken a completely different path me d deductive top down theoretical framework that eventually came to be called neorealism foreign policy (1996) himself argued famously that international politics Water (1959) held that the classical powerful insights into the workings of policy that theory development and FPA had become two distinct with Donal politics were weakened by their failure to distinguish clearly among arguments about little connection to each other human the internal of states. and the overall system of His Theory of Neoclassical realism is a subschool within realism that this be International about 1979) brought together and many earlier realist ideas tween the general and the particular It accepts from and the stated how the features of the overall system of states affect the ways states He utility of thinking thecretically about the system as from the in anarchy in the form yet the classic argument about how the mere existence of groups properties of states (Rose However having carefully spected the nal can of those powerful competitive pressure and war-regardless of what the inter international conditions particular states face, 80 on a specific groups might be like features of a given situation to generate more complete explanations of policy neorealism about the forces that discovered much that harder depending and more on how clearly they thought seek to recapture the grounding in the details of foreign policy that marked realism while also benefiting from the that</p><p>CHAPTER WILLIAM WOHLFORTH REALISM AND 40 FOREIGN the dream of creating a single universal theory of in- Neoclassical realists are not school (if any) is most useful because they reasoned if Russian power might some day for the choice However wise or unwise it may have been, the thinking in London and ternational For and To some extent. the of place theory is lysing issues of foreign For policy offensive realism provides a powerful shorthand stretches of portrayal of at a given many historians as entirely consistent with the expectations of balance of power Balance of threat theory adds complexity to this picture As its name implies, theory this a contextual issue and constraints faced by states in parts of Europe for long the eight the incentives twentieth In other and for some groups of states in defen- predicts that states will balance against threats Threat in turn, is driven by a combination theory three key aggregate capabilities (i.e a state's overall military and economic of to arguably provides a more accurate model of the international setting. much And many and perceptions of aggressive intentions If one state becomes poten- sive realism hold that in today's EU anarchy IS sufficiently attenuated that neither is use powerful and if its location and behaviour feed threat perceptions on the part of other especially analysts to which a theoretical picture of the international system really applies is a mat- then balancing strategies will come to dominate their foreign policies Thus the USA began The of judgement degree based on the analyst's reading of the context Neoclassical realists remain both external and internal balancing after the end of the Second World War even though the ter over which theoretical proposition may they bring to bear those theories that Soviet Union remained decidedly inferior in most categories of power Ultimately the West. agnostic arguably relevant However while they are agnostic over which theory or theoretical ern alliance overwhelmed the Soviet-led alliance on nearly every dimension Balance are school may apply they agree that theory helps strengthen analysis. From the perspective of threat theory holds that it was the location of Soviet power in the heart of Europe as well as a basic set of questions constantly recurs in FPA To what degree is state X's policy a the threat inherent in its secretive government and that produced response to external pressures and incentives as opposed to internally generated? If a new this outcome party were to come to power, how much would the policy change? Would state X respond Hegemonic stability theory builds on the observation that powerful states tend to seek more favourably to incentives or threats? To answer these questions, one has to imagine what dominance over all or parts of any international thus fostering some degree of her. any state would do in X's position The key contribution of neorealism and its offshool sub- archy within the overall systemic It seeks to explain how cooperation emerge schools of offensive and defensive realism is rigorous thinking about exactly these questions. among major powers and how comprising and institu- For neoclassical realists. theoretical structures like offensive and defensive realism are not tions, emerge and are The theory's core prediction is that any international order always and everywhere true or false Rather they make it easier to perform the key mental is stable only to the degree that the relations of authority within it are sustained by the under- experiments that lie at the core of FPA by helping analysts frame their assessments of the lying distribution of power According to this theory the current globalization order is external constraints and incentives states face. tained by US power and is likely to come undone as challengers like China gain strength I shall argue IS the approach most likely to exploit the benefits of realism for the analy- Power transition theory IS a subset of hegemonic stability that seeks to explain how orders of foreign policy while avoiding the potential pitfalls To see why this is so, it is necessary to break down into war Building from the premises of hegemonic stability theory it deduces be familiar with more specific realist theories, and to be aware of how theories actually relate that dominant states will prefer to retain that the preference of lesser states for contesting that leadership will tend to strengthen as they become stronger relative to the to specific situations. dominant state, and that this clash is likely to come to the fore as the capabilities of the two sides approach Applied to the current the theory posits that the stronger Theories within realism China the more likely it to become dissatisfied with the US-led global order It Theoretical subschools do not capture realism's full diversity. Equally important are specific predicts that a or at least a Cold War style between the USA and China will be- theories about the fundamental constraints and incentives that shape foreign policy. A come likely unless China's growth slows down or Washington finds a way to accommodate edge of realist prompts one to ask questions about foreign policy one would not Beijing's preferences. otherwise ask to look for patterns that would not otherwise seem and to see com- monalities through time and so help distinguish the mundane from the remarkable Assumptions, conditions, and theories Arguably the best-known theoretical proposition about IR is balance of power theory Given the basic problem that under anarchy any state can resort to force to get what it wants, it fol. The chief challenge for FPA is: How do we know whether one of these theoretical subschools lows that states are likely to guard against the possibility that one state might amass the or specific theories applies to a specific foreign policy issue? The answer lies in being dear withal to compel all the others to do its will and even possibly eliminate them The theory about how the various parts of any theory fit together Recall the general argument spelled posits that states will check dangerous concentrations of power by building up their own ca- out about how anarchy fosters conflict This contains three components the three assump- pabilities ('internal balancing') or aggregating their capabilities with other states in alliances tions of and a postulated scope condition (anarchy) and balancing) Because states are always looking to the future to anticipate possible a very general theory (given those assumptions, politics in anarchy IS conflictual) Many real balancing may occur even before any one state or alliance has gained an obvious of and critics of realism confuse these three For many assert that anarchy or power edge Thus, and France fought the Russian Empire in the Crimea in the middle conflict are assumptions that define This is and leads to major analytical the nineteenth century less because they saw an Immediate challenge to their position than takes on the part of scholars both favourably and unfavourably disposed towards</p><p>WORLFORTH WILLIAM about what happens in anarchical 42 will be realism Propositions commonly seen AS Actual Realists do not inter-state interactions are likely definitive of Realism' relation to Realists can go astray when applying realism are main actors' Current conflictual Thus. assumption the If think that policy are apparent you anarchy foreign moral principals The first error to confuse you are likely to think that then realist theo- do not apply to states' Predictions/arguments assumption strongly to all states everywhere But in three assumptions practice calculate interest in highlight authority to enforce which agreements is a nes ability of rely on some terms of power' is variable The seek to enforce order anarchy sometimes among matter of degree those For smaller great states. anarchy is attenuated On some set of Therefore issues, those powers toward law and institutions small states reasonably For expect the local great power to enforce those real- 'International politics IS essentially states might highlight anarchy would not apply particularly strongly to states on ist theones that for the USA in Central the EU in the Balkans, and Humankind cannot transcend conflict through the progressive power of reason' that set of Russia in Central Asia may all perform this anarchy-attenuating role (albeit in very "Primacy of balance of power perhaps ways) The only way to know where and to what degree anarchy is attenuated is different to acquire in-depth knowledge about specific states-just what foreign policy analysts are system is anarchic Scope conditions 'Uncertainty' supposed to The second kind of to confuse assumptions with If you mistakenly think 'The utility of that conflict a core assumption of you might well conclude that whenever states are 'Politics not a function of ethics; reasons of Implication of nice to each other realist theones must not apply But this IS not necessarily Because realist state trump ethics' theones explain war they also explain peace For realists, peace results when the key causes 'State interest is Implication of d war are absent Thus the amity you might observe among some group of states may be a result of the attenuation of anarchy among them caused by a local order-providing great 'Realists assume tendency to evil) of power Or amity among one group of states may anse from their shared need to oppose an- other state or group In either case realist theones predict that the absence of conflict is Figure 2.1 Many propositions thought to be definitive of realism contingent on a particular configuration of power and that conflict might return when that configuration (See Figure 21 The upshot is that realist theories can be powerful tools in FPA, but applying them is harder Practitioners' realist foreign policy approaches than it might seem The tnck IS to recognize the contingent nature of all theories. The question of whether a theory to a given case is hard to answer and often requires the Examples are easy to Frequently one encounters the or - deep local knowledge of foreign policy tend to possess. Neoclassical realism theory balanced with in-depth case-specific knowledge the analysis real have suggested best captures this delicate combination between the general and the In 1900. the Russian Minister of Prince Kuropation & toular So far have made this case at a very general level It becomes much clearer when Tsar Alexander on the strategic situation provided three examine realist analysis foreign policy. which were controversial at the time but appear present now know would soon befall the Russian N23 a no further expansion for any of its core that any Realist analysis of foreign policy other states, causing them to build up their own forces or S given its own power and that of its potential a afford While generate the analysis of foreign policy might begin with it should never end there tation and needed to do all it could to reduce tensions other explanations of foreign policy one must combine the general and timeless causes the relative power of states and the ever-present potential school identify with the particulars of a given As I have realism is the on all the realist the report most thought most firmly grounded real foreign policy practice while ever its universal validity as a general portrayal general theones How have realists reconciled these & power theory was workung against Russia in today's the threat theory and the general assessment of the security found</p><p>44 WILLIAM WOHLFORTH CHAPTER 2 REALISM AND FOREIGN POLICY 45 The brilliance of Kuropatkin's analysis was its sophisticated recognition that even though sia it could still seem strong and threatening to others. causing them to take BOX 2.1 Russia and America play the E.H. termeasures that could end up making Russia even less secure. This report was, historian William Fuller (1992.379) notes. masterly effort and inspires Morality the product of EH Carr wrote in his realist classic The Twenty Years He meant that standards of right and wrong tend 10 be defined by the powerful in ways that further their narrow In 1907 a British Sir Eyre Crowe, wrote a memorandum for the government group interest Carr cited case after case of principles in response to changing lining the need for a thoroughgoing reorientation of Britain's foreign At its relations of power and interest It is just as easy to find cases In 1999, NATO bambed Serbia dispassionate analysis of the Empire's overall power position and the fundamental challenges to force to cease its violent suppression of an independence movement in its province of Kosova presented by the nse of Germany Crowe used balance of power theory to explain why The Russia protested strongly claiming that the intervention violated the principle of enshrined had to concentrate its dwindling resources on the problem of containing German power in the UN Charter and moreover that is was illegal because it was neither taken in self defence nor authorized by the UN Security NATO defended the action as a response to a memorandum brought together the typical realist emphasis on systemic power concerns crisis and a threat to regional security with a detailed examination of German domestic politics, statecraft and Nine years later Russia invaded neighbour Georgia ostensibly to force it to cease its violent In 1946, George the US Ambassador to the Soviet drafted one of the most suppression of separatists in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Now NATO famous memoranda of modern the 'long urging Washington to adopta countries protested this of citing the very same principles that Russia policy of containing Soviet power He argued that the Soviet Union was in a position the to had touted in the case response? literally repeated to the Western threatened the global balance of power and that the country was internally disposed powers the very same arguments that NATO had used nine years earlier concerning Had these continue expanding unless it met a powerful counterweight. Once again we see the and general of the governments really changed their views on the principle of Hardly Different constellations of power and interest called forth different justifying realist precepts (a dispassionate analysis of Soviet. US. and British capabilities fundamental importance of the world's key power centres, a penchant for potential for universalistic rhetoric on both sides, a focus on narrow group interest and the conflict) a very general timeless theory the balance of power). and an in-depth Scholars' realist foreign policy approaches insightful analysis of domestic Soviet politics. In the early 1970s. President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Kissinger's Henry Academic analysts of foreign policy frequently reach for realist theories to inform their critical Hans the most renowned US realist scholar of the mid-twentreth cen- engineered a of US foreign Underlying this shift was of the increase headed analysis of the relative decline in US power against the backdrop the tury, periodically used realist ideas to inform trenchant critiques of his governments foreign of the USA's own allies in Europe and Asia, as well as that of their main that in ter policy what He argued that waging a cold war against all states led by communist no power Union, and many other regional states. The chief argument of this study was allies and partners analyses the differences among them only multiplied US enemies and The weakened power position. Washington should do less by itself, work to get of trous (see Box 22) made just as the USA was gearing up for a major and ultimately disas- to shoulder more of the burden of containing Soviet power reduce the number Union by Let military commitment to Vietnam show many hallmarks of realist FPA. enemies by reaching out to China, and attenuate the rivalry with the Soviet ternational US consider another example in detail In the late 1980s, the Cold War had defined there was a politics new for over a generation and seemed set to endure far into the future ing a relaxation of tensions known in diplomatic parlance as These examples are all from foreign policy practitioners steeped in the analysis realist new diplomatic actor on the scene The Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. had But a tradition They share the trademark realist emphasis on a dispassionate the Soviet Union strategy the that making concessions on key outstanding issues inaugurated Their power positions of groups in anarchy and the ubiquity of power politics time. In each comes clearer when compared with what others were saying at the and building a new principles world order called new political thinking` that called for espoused newset of foreign policy USA and its At the same Gorbachev a dividing analysts confronted competing analyses that did not share the basic first realist features thinking as an attempt to Most foreign policy analysts in the USA transcending conflict above The historian Fuller observed that Kuropatkin's report was the the and held that change in Moscow's the Western powers into making dangerous discounted concessions, the new of ideas would be contending strictly limited history in which a statesman had tried to commit to paper a synoptic vision that A major small minority took were possible cal and military strategies in the and future' Crowe's Kennan's and Into this provided that debate the West came sceptical response from the Liberal cabinet of the day. and both macy of The mode of thinking struck many of their fellow countrymen as somehow to suggest Policy Diplo- These practitioners deployed arguments that would later develop into key to This led the assump- But they which theories the dilemma or balance of threat theory was arguably the like security underlying policy Against power are the deep familiarity with specific players involved in each their was the position of majority the Soviet he lective mindsets Needless to say this balance between theory and case held the to new Soviet neoclassical realists seek to recapture (See Box 21) minority</p><p>WILLIAM WOHLFORTH CHAPTER 2 REALISM AND FOREIGN POLICY 46 47 BOX 2.2 Morgenthau on US Cold War foreign policy and Vietnam continued to back away from its Cold War positions and the rivalry was ended on Western terms And although scholars continue to debate its relative importance, there is no tion that decline was a major driving force behind Soviet foreign policy during the Cold 1965 From New Times simple 18 April of and Tree world was erected time by John Foster War's It is this morals into the guiding of American foreign policy at a when the One issue on which Sestanovich was less than clear was whether Gorbacher actually national of the neutralism of the third invalid world and the incipient split between the believed his new thinking rhetoric The diplomacy may well have been a response to decline Union the to that we are faced not with one but monolithic with number Communism of and China rendering that and the ideas may have been rationalizations for the tough decisions Gorbachev had to make but nonetheless they may have been sincerely believed This brings to the side of the Today it must be countered uniform a different story. In at exactly this time. there was a group of Russian realist analysis Locking whose whose determined different national varies In the USA them IS because realist analysis had been forbidden in the Union for many today less from who a Communist than from de Gaulle, who not decades. All FPA had formally to adhere to the official ideology of As encounters four different types of Commumsm in view of the kind and degree of We the USA they represent a Communism identified with the Soviet Union-eg the a Communism Soviet society began to loosen up. Russian were able to express realist ideas openly identified to with China-eg a Communism that straddles the fence between Union and for the first time in and independent Yugoslavia Each of these Communisms must By young Russian realist analysts felt emboldened enough to publish careful be with in terms the bearing its foreign policy has upon the interests of the USA in concrete of official Soviet policy. Their studies are instantly recognizable as belonging to the same (classical realist) tradition as Kennan, and Kissinger. Conducting the famil- instance of course be absurd to suggest that the officials responsible for the conduct of American realist assessment of relative power trends, these analysis agreed with Sestanovich that foreign policy are unzware d these distinctions and of the demands they make for discriminating Soviet foreign policy had to respond to decline by making concessions to ease the burdens of Yet is an obvous of experience that these are incapable of living up to these empire they criticized Gorbachev's new thinking for obscuring rather than demands when they deal with Vietnam Thus they maneuver themselves into a position which is anti-revolutionary per se and which requires ing the tough trade-offs facing Moscow. In their the grand visionary ideas were delaying military opposition to revolution wherever it IS found in regardless of how it affects the tough decisions, particularly regarding Germany Pre-emptive concessions on that issue, they and how susceptible is to the the USA There is a historic precedent for this kind of policy. would allow Moscow to get ahead of the gain control of the agenda, and buy military to liberalism after the Napoleonic which collapsed in 1548 For time for critical domestic reforms. Given what occurred in the two years after these analyses better or for worse we in an age of revolution It IS the task of statesmanship not oppose were published-Moscow's total loss of its system and ultimately the collapse of the what cannot be opposed without chance of but to bend it to one's own interests Soviet Union itself-they look prescient From the Press May 16 1965 Recent examples of realist FPA include the opposition of many Q. do you think because we may not be able to stop them [the that good realists to the US invasion of Iraq in 2002-2003 and intervention in Libya in 2011. and, for not trying they are dangerous and they want to get the whole world under their thumb? Morgenthau This is the best reason in the world If you look at the problem of politics in general you more generally. opposition to unqualified support for Israel As the USA and many is key realize that politics is the art of the possible There are certain things that you would like to do but you allies entered a prolonged economic slump after the financial of 2008. placing intense strains on military and foreign affairs budgets, realists began arguing strongly for the need to can't do because you haven't got the means to do pare down security commitments and move to a more restrained posture in world The details are different but the thrust is redolent of Morgenthau's arguments four decades position, he contended that the new thinking ideas were not important in themselves. but lier-that an overly idealistic definition of US interest ran the risk of multiplying enemies and rather reflected the attempt to put the best face on a concessionary policy of appeasement expanding commitments beyond the country's driven by decline He observed that states tend to generate ideas for transcending conflictjust when they see that they lack the power to carry on the struggle Sestanovich realized that Using realism in analysing foreign policy declining states do in fact have other options. For example, realist thinking also emphasizes that a declining power can use force to try to rescue its It was only by combining the Guidelines general theory with his detailed knowledge of the Cold War and Soviet politics that he could be reasonably confident that Moscow would choose appeasement over war To illustrate the potential analytical power of realism, I have selected examples in which ana- As things turned out Sestanovich was right about many things Remember the policy lysts struck an ideal balance between realism's aspiration to general theory and its equally debate was over whether the new Soviet course was serious and whether the West had strong commitment to grounding in foreign policy practice While they show that move towards Gorbacher's new thinking and reciprocate his concessions in order to can inform the analysis of foreign policy. they do not tell us how this occurs. Despite the attenuate the Cold War As it happened US policy makers never accepted new do parent overlap between realist principles and the dynamics of foreign policy realist theories thinking and never reciprocated Gorbachev's major concessions, yet the Soviet Union not necessarily guarantee a clear and accurate analysis of foreign policy It is 100 easy</p><p>CHAPTER 2 REALISM AND FOREIGN POLICY 49 48 to find examples of analyses reliant on realist theories that do not read well in retrospect Examining some of these less successful examples helps to clarify the potential pitfalls Example 3: Anti-US counterbalancing in the 1990s realism as a guide to foreign policy Waltz and other realists began to argue with the end of the Cold War, a new multipolar balance of power order would re-emerge in which other major powers would counterbalance the USA They held that overly provocative US policies such as the expansion of NATO to Example 1: The never-ending Cold War former Soviet allies in Central Europe would push Russia and other major powers into an anti- The most renowned realist theorist of the last Kenneth proclaimed in 1988 US alliance Again, policy makers in Washington and Europe chose to ignore this advice. NATO that the Cold War was firmly rooted in the structure of postwar International politics and will expansion accompanied by a highly active and interventionist US foreign No traditional counterbalancing occurred As in the other there are plenty of non-realist last as long as that structure endures (Waltz. in Rotberg 1988 52). No one reading that article theories that might account for this outcome However, more to the point here, this appears to would have expected the Cold War structure to come crashing down in the next few years be another case of applying a theory to a situation without due regard to whether its scope The contrast with Sestanovich's article and the analysis by the Russian realists noted above is conditions are actually present Realists predictions of counterbalancing and the accompany- instructive The chief difference is that those analyses were deeply immersed in the analysis of ing policy analysis were based on balance of power theory. but it became increasingly clear that foreign policy They were acutely aware that the bipolar structure was the product of that theory's scope conditions did not apply to the 1990s USA (Wohlforth 1999) in a condition the ability of the two superpowers to sustain it. and that the depths of Soviet decline placed of unipolarity The theory predicts reactions to a rising hegemonic not responses to a question mark over the stability of the Cold War They did not question Waltz's theory power whose hegemony is already firmly established All the centuries of theory. and linking bipolarity to the Cold rather their case-specific knowledge led them to question lore about the balance of power may well be right, but they simply did not apply to the case at whether the theory's initial conditions-two relatively equally matched superpowers-would hand. Belatedly recognizing this, realists began developing a new theory of soft balancing to remain in place To his credit Waltz understood this as having posed the question of explain constraint actions against a dominant power in a unipolar setting (see Pape 2005). whether the Soviet Union could long keep up its side of the Cold War But the passage just cited IS an example of reasoning from theory to a case without using case detail to interrogate the theory exemplifies the pitfalls of applying a theory without due regard to whether its Avoiding pitfalls scope conditions are actually present Assessing the veracity of FPA from the comfortable vantage of hindsight is hard to do fairly. The point is not to play the game against individual scholars-all scholars have mixed records of prognostication and policy assessment-but to understand where specific discus- Example 2: Major power war in 1990s Europe sions of foreign policy might have gone astray in their particular application of The following year another highly influential realist John J lead argued to a Realist theories clearly generate widely disparate implications for foreign policy. some of that his brand of offensive realism predicted that the end of the Cold War would War which may illuminate while others may be perceived as flat How does one more war-prone Europe As such West has an interest in maintaining the Cold of able the likelihood that realist theories will help rather than hinder FPA? The key is a knowledge- order, and hence has an interest in maintaining the Cold War meaning Soviet how use of these Knowing how to use these requires careful thought about that Western powers should support continued existence of a powerful Needless precisely they are related to realism's own core assumptions, scope conditions. and ex- Union with substantial military forces in Eastern Europe (Mearsheimer 125) with plied pected As outcomes as well as to the real-world foreign policy scenanos to which they are to policy makers did not heed this advice Similar to the above case. one problem Soviet analysts of illustrated above, in the simple confusion of scope conditions with ap- this say application of realist theory to a specific foreign policy situation was that the in Central are foreign policy may try to apply realist theories to international settings where they profoundly misleading (Figure Union was losing the material wherewithal to maintain a massive troop presence tolerate the even setting aside the willingness of Central European publics conditions specifics that of the foreign policy case at hand and to pay close attention analyses to the know The the two major lessons for avoiding erroneous or Inaccurate foreign policy are to Soviet presence it was unclear that Moscow could afford to sustain More really Mearsheimer did not question whether the scope conditions of polarity theory of three alteration In sometimes assumed to be universal-applying always and especially realism, are may connect it more generally to key realist precepts scope plied The theory that multipolarity (an international system shaped by the power shaped or more major states) is more prone to war than bipolarity (an international system is not clear by the power of two major or superpowers) may well be right but it USA main quires deep theory Applying these lessons is much harder to do than to known param- eters of a given the circumstances under analysis truly correspond policy the issue can one determine whether Only by knowing the details of a given foreign realism apply very different reality. as Fig. 22 suggests theories and even subschools within everywhere without in whether it applied to a region like Europe in which a powerful outside actor. the that ignores the EU and new domestic politics and it was doubtful that tained a strong security presence even in terms of a spare realist theory analysis as well as a continual familianty with both general theory and the specifics of the it seems, policy for case it re- mental back-and-forth check between the case and foreign the theory applied to that case</p><p>WILLIAM WOHLFORTH CHAPTER 2 REALISM AND FOREIGN POLICY 50 Theory or Main theorist What it explains Scope conditions Ironically academic realists can be their own worst enemies when it comes to FPA. Theo- rists face two to treat their theories as universal as opposed to contingent Mearsheimer Security to clarify their theories they need pure and clean conceptual building In other Offensive offence/defence cannot they strive to put the basic ideas out of which their theories are burlt the clearest realism be possible way so that the basic logic at work clear for all to see The notion of is technology/geography favour offence an example Theorists require a clear understanding of anarchy in order to construct a co- herent theory of what international politics in an anarchical setting looks like Scholars Glaser Security is plentiful, Defensive cooperation mainly interested in building theory are thus very resistant to understanding anarchy as realism have discussed it here-as a matter of Hence realist scholars squabble over whether technology/geography the logic of anarchy spelled out defensive or offensive realism is universally Foreign favour defence policy by must be sensitive to the fact that anarchy in the real world IS a Waltz military One great power rising not a In order to know how strongly realist theories apply. one needs to Balance of power build-ups, to potential know to what degree anarchy might be attenuated As I have noted. anarchy can be attenu- militarized rivalries hegemony/predominance ated for purely 'realist' reasons as in a regional order created by a local hegemon. of Alliances, military One great power rising it may be attenuated for reasons not identified in realist theory. as in the institu- Balance of threat Walt to potential tions-based order of the EU In either case. realist theories about the conflict-generating militarized rivalries hegemony/predominance potential of anarchy do not apply particularly As scholars move from theory to the whose geographical real they sometimes fail to adjust their pure conception of anarchy to the messy military reality they confront posture, and overall behaviour engender threat theorists operate in a competitive scholarly world where theones and schools of perceptions thought are often seen to be competing against Adjustments to the tion of its contingent nature-may be seized upon by intellectual rivals as admissions of the Subtle constraint One great power Soft balancing Pape strong to be theory's weakness or irrelevance Realism IS the fulcrum of these academic debates Most actions unipole unipolarity other schools of thought and theories are written in one or anyother as a response to realism Perhaps responding in turn. realist scholars sometimes seem very reluctant to ac- Cooperation, One great power Gilpin institution-norm predominant in system knowledge the contingent nature of their of foreign policy. by contrast. stability or region generally have no reason to increase competition between To understand foreign construction; 'order' policy dilemmas from as many angles as such naturally gravitate towards of a rising the idea that theories are complementary rather than competitive Power Transition Gilpin War challenger approaching Over half a century ago, the philosopher Isaiah wrote an essay that built on a line parity with dominant among the fragments of the Greek poet Archilochus which The fox knows many hegemon but the hedgehog knows one big thing. Berlin argued that taken figuratively. the words can be made to yield a sense in which they mark one of the deepest differences which divide writers and may be human beings in Figure 22 Theones and scope conditions to For there exists a great chasm between those on one side who relate everything a single central one system less or more coherent or articulate in terms of which alone they understand all think and single universal organizing principle in terms of which Conclusion: hedgehogs, foxes, and analysing foreign policy that they are and say has significance-and on the other side those who pursue facto many for often unrelated and even contradictory at only in some de Aside from the admonition to study both realist theories and the specifics of contempora to way some psychological or physiological cause related by no moral or aesthetic foreign policy problems-and the unhelpful warning that this is in fact quite hard than these last lead lives perform and entertain ideas that are centrifugal rather the essence of their thought or moving on many levels, upon other concrete lessons can be taken away? Analysts. frequently academics applies mistakes by failing to recognize the contingent nature of whether a theory present out consciously a vast variety of experiences and objects for what they are in with unitary all-embracing sometimes self-contradictory and incomplete times fanatical any unchanging or seeking to them or exclude them from one given situation depends on the degree to which its scope conditions are actually ever one can be very critical of academic realist theory and yet still find realism Indeed most decent practitioners will tell you that this exactly how they</p><p>WORLFORTH CHAPTER AND 52 tend to be hedgehogs not fores Berlin (1992) suggested that universal realist and be better at themselves argue that they have 10 be As explored in Chapter have Academic practical like FPA There is more than intuition to support this different different strengths depending to FPA have to do with getting the of twenty five year long research project that tracked experts' real analytical and without checking with the policy the results a Foxes systematically outperform forecasting implication is that should not be dogmatic realists-or anti-realists They When a should The know without becoming overly committed to any one And nothing in the of by of on policy ranging from realist approach makes one inevitably a On the many realist are Fox-like FPA involving a constant dialogue between case expertise and general whole scholarly approach 15 devoted to putting these ideas into practice After theory is possible All the examples cited above are cases in point As above Questions I this realism a birth to defensive and oftensive a new subschool came into its own Neoclassi 2 the of cal gave realism is simply put realist theory for the foreign policy analyst While this what me the FPAT of causes some purists to quip about a research pre Name a recent it is only a boon to FPA Examples of work by neoclassical realists can be found in All have in com What a the people to sensitivity to realist core and an appreciation of how neorealism can and in the & What is the important to mental experiments that at the core of FPA. but they lack dogmatic attachment to one theory or the other All are masters not of theory But can the Further reading of Consider the case of the US opposition to the Bush the foreign policy especially the Iraq war There is no doubt that realists were (2000) and International Cambridge University most visible IR scholars opposing the march to war Yet the analysis behind their policy pre- but The best general to scription was quintessentially fox-like It did not flow directly from neorealist theory. International Security 1-140 rather from J careful analysis of the situation generally by realist ideas useful and the at In a sense these scholars seek to do what classical realists like Hans Morgenthau or George use as when they analysed foreign or what analysts like Stephen Sestanovich did and Theories of Policy World has study of Sover policy under but to do so with a more self-conscious An reviewing a tion to the between general theories and specific cases For that purpose thought and (2003) / A New realist are in many ways more than the more general schools of (Saddle Limitations A. (2005) State The of Policy of Key points and is approach to theory and other approaches are who IR theory FPA must be knowledgeable about approach that a general school balance and specific like the security duemma or the the for information as be derived from three basic assumptions general school of thought sharpens FPA by reflect of grounding policy and a</p>