Plinio Nastari CNPE V Encontro Embrapa Agroenergia 09out18

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<p>Redução de Emissões Globais pelo uso</p><p>de Biocombustíveis</p><p>Dr. Plinio Nastari</p><p>Presidente, DATAGRO</p><p>Representante da Sociedade Civil no CNPE</p><p>Conselho Nacional de Política Energética</p><p>V Encontro de Pesquisa e Inovação da Embrapa Agroenergia - EnPI</p><p>9-10 de Outubro de 2018</p><p>Brasília, DF</p><p>Main World Consumers</p><p>of Fuels used in Transport (2014)</p><p>2</p><p>Million tonnes</p><p>Source: IEA, 2016</p><p>Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC) are amongst 6 largest Consumers of Fuels used in Transport</p><p>GHG Emissions in CO2 eq in Generation & Use of Energy by Sector (2014)</p><p>World</p><p>3</p><p>Source: IEA, 2016</p><p>GHG Emissions in CO2 eq in Generation & Use of Energy by Sector (2014)</p><p>Brazil</p><p>4</p><p>Source: MME, 2016</p><p>Brazil – Cleanest Fuels Matrix in the World, 2017</p><p>5</p><p>Source: ANP</p><p>Brazil – Consumption of Transport Fuels: 111.75 billion liters in 2017</p><p>26,8% Ethanol + Biodiesel</p><p>Recently, Electric Battery Vehicles (EBVs) have captured a lot of attention worldwide</p><p>6</p><p>But the Option of Technological Pathway</p><p>for Fuel & Motorization will depend on the method used to measure</p><p>Energy Efficiency & Environmental Impact</p><p>Well-to-Wheel (WtW)</p><p>or Life-Cycle Assessment</p><p>or</p><p>Tank-to-Wheel (TtW)</p><p>7</p><p>Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under WtW</p><p>8</p><p>Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017.</p><p>Hybrid Fossil</p><p>Hybrid Ethanol</p><p>Comparison of GHG Emissions under WtW</p><p>9</p><p>Total GHG Emission in gCO2e/km – 2017 & 2030</p><p>Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017</p><p>Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under WtW</p><p>10</p><p>Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017</p><p>Hybrid Fossil</p><p>Hybrid Ethanol</p><p>Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under WtW</p><p>11</p><p>Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017</p><p>Hybrid Fossil</p><p>Hybrid Ethanol</p><p>Comparison of Fuel & Motorization under WtW</p><p>12</p><p>Source: AEA , Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering, 2017</p><p>Hybrid Fossil</p><p>Hybrid Ethanol</p><p>The main issue (but not the only one) with Batteries is that they have low</p><p>Energy Density & Specific Energy</p><p>13</p><p>Batteries: energy density < 1,000 Wh/kg</p><p>14</p><p>Source: Van Noorden , “A Better Battery”, 2 8 | N AT U R E | VO L 5 0 7 | 6 M A R C H 2 0 1 4 in Brito, BBEST, 2017.</p><p>Batteries: energy density & specific energy</p><p>15</p><p>Source: Brito, BBEST, 2017, FAPESP.</p><p>Energy Density & Specific Energy:</p><p>in Liquid Fuels are much higher than in Batteries</p><p>16</p><p>Ethanol</p><p>Gasoline</p><p>Batteries</p><p>Source: Brito, BBEST, 2017, FAPESP.</p><p>Y-Values	6600	12700	5500	9200	Specific Energy (Wh/kg)</p><p>Emergy Density (Wh/liter)</p><p>Electric Battery Cars are really clean?</p><p>17</p><p>2-Degree Scenario: Transport Energy by Fuel 2010-2075</p><p>Even with aggressive reductions in travel growth, shifts to mass transport modes, strong efficiency improvements, and deep market penetration by vehicles running on electricity and hydrogen, there remains a large demand for dense liquid fuels in 2050 (80% of transportation fuel) and even in 2075 (50%).</p><p>18</p><p>Source: Fulton et al., Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 9:476–483 (2015); doi: 10.1002/bbb.</p><p>ADJUSTABLE FLANGE TO CHANGE COMPRESSION RATIO AUTOMATICALLY</p><p>New technologies can take advantage of</p><p>High Blend Octane of Ethanol</p><p>Automotive Technology</p><p>Electrification with biofuels</p><p>“With the current ethanol distribution infrastructure, Brazil has already solved the Hydrogen distribution hurdle” (Nissan, June 2016).</p><p>Electrification with ethanol does not require use of rare metals.</p><p>Distribution of ethanol, as a sole or blended fuel in gasoline, is equivalent to a network of Hydrogen already in place.</p><p>20</p><p>Automotive Technology</p><p>Electrification with Ethanol (Hybrids and FCVs)</p><p>Is an electric car using ethanol, without the problems faced by Electric Battery Vehicle, taking advantage of the high content of Hydrogen in ethanol.</p><p>21</p><p>Electric Battery Vehicles (EBVs) will fail due to infrastructure challenges, while Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) represent the real advance in electrification in mobility</p><p>62% of executives agree totally or partially that EBVs will fail due to infrastructure challenges</p><p>78% of executives agree totally or partially that FCVs represent the real advance in electrification in mobility</p><p>Totally Agree</p><p>33%</p><p>Partially Agree</p><p>45%</p><p>Neutral</p><p>16%</p><p>5%</p><p>Partially Disagree</p><p>1%</p><p>Totally Disagree</p><p>Totally Agree</p><p>22%</p><p>Partially Agree</p><p>40%</p><p>Neutral</p><p>20%</p><p>12%</p><p>Partially Disagree</p><p>6%</p><p>Totally Disagree</p><p>Source:</p><p>18th consecutive Global Automotive Executive Survey, Feb 2017</p><p>KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017</p><p>Diversification towards Ethanol enabled successful development of Brazil´s Sugarcane Industry</p><p>23</p><p>Source: DATAGRO. Anhydrous ethanol is blended in gasoline at 27% v/v (E27), and hydrous ethanol (E100) is used by Flex-fuel fleet comprising >75% of light vehicle fleet (2017), that can use any proportion of E27 & E100.</p><p>2018/19e</p><p>40.1%</p><p>23.0%</p><p>36.9%</p><p>Substitution of Gasoline by Ethanol in Selected Countries (2017)</p><p>24</p><p>Source: DATAGRO for Brazil, and various sources for other countries.</p><p>During first 8 months (Jan-Aug) of 2018, it was 42.2% in Brazil</p><p>Relevance of the distribution system</p><p>Brazil is using its liquid fuel infrastructure to distribute:</p><p>Hydrous Ethanol (E100) used as sole fuel: in >42,000 retailing stations in a continental-size country;</p><p>Anhydrous Ethanol blended at 27% v/v in all gasoline sold in the country (E27) – Brazil has, for a long time already, been using the USA automakers’ target of “mid-level blends”,</p><p>Biodiesel blended in all fossil-based diesel (B10) since March/18.</p><p>Biofuel is high-density SOLAR ENERGY captured, stored and distributed in an efficient, economical & safe manner.</p><p>25</p><p>Relevance of the distribution system</p><p>Brazil is using its liquid fuel infrastructure to distribute:</p><p>Hydrous Ethanol (E100) used as sole fuel: in >42,000 retailing stations in a continental-size country;</p><p>Anhydrous Ethanol blended at 27% v/v in all gasoline sold in the country (E27) – Brazil has, for a long time already, been using the USA automakers’ target of “mid-level blends”,</p><p>Biodiesel blended in all fossil-based diesel (B10) since March/18.</p><p>Biofuel is high-density HYDROGEN captured, stored and distributed in an efficient, economical & safe manner.</p><p>26</p><p>Brazil´s New National Biofuels Plan (RenovaBio), enacted into Law in December 2017,</p><p>is a relevant strategy to reinforce policy towards Biofuels and the achievement of</p><p>the country´s commitments before</p><p>the Climate Agreement</p><p>28</p><p>RenovaBio – a model for expansion</p><p>of clean energy solution in mobility</p><p>COP23-Fiji in Bonn</p><p>30</p><p>Declaration of Vision, by 19 Nations representing over 50% of world population, 37% of world GDP + IEA + IRENA</p><p>Bonn, November 16, 2017</p><p>Target for 2030 (to achieve the 2-Degree Scenario)</p><p>% of Bioenergy in world energy demand must double.</p><p>% of sustainable low carbon Biofuels in transport fuels, including sea and air transport, must triple.</p><p>Scaling up the bioeconomy is possible, given smart agricultural practices, better use of rural and urban waste, and proper policies.</p><p>Electrification with Ethanol</p><p>Takes advantage of high energy density of ethanol</p><p>Avoids the trap of fossil-derived electricity (importance of considering WtW concept)</p><p>Electrification with Ethanol has the lowest GHG emission</p><p>Uses existing liquid fuel distribution infrastructure</p><p>Avoids concerns over:</p><p>Availability and sourcing of lithium-ion and cobalt</p><p>Life-span of batteries</p><p>Discart of batteries and the pollution it generates</p><p>Is the option that promotes development (jobs and income) and the simultaneous integration of energy, agricultural, industrial & environmental public policy objectives.</p><p>31</p><p>Electrification with Ethanol</p><p>Positive environmental impacts of Biofuels use</p><p>Ethanol (C2H5OH) enables complete substitution of tetra-ethyl lead, carcinogenic MTBE and aromatics in gasoline.</p><p>Other urban pollution positive impacts: Ethanol blends enable leaner fuel mixtures, bringing lower emissions of CO, HC, NOx, formaldehydes, and particulate matter (MP2.5).</p><p>Biodiesel reduces consideerably emissions of particulate matter;</p><p>Global emissions: very low carbon footprint of sugarcane ethanol</p><p>enables easy & direct reduction of GHG emissions.</p><p>Sugarcane sector has the largest potential of biogas / biomethane (CH4) production that can substitute diesel.</p><p>32</p><p>Ethanol enables progressive</p><p>positive evolution in motorization, using current infrastructure</p><p>Otimization of current I.C.E.</p><p>Hybrids using Ethanol</p><p>Electrification using Ethanol & Biomethane</p><p>33</p><p>We are moving towards</p><p>the Age of Hydrogen</p><p>Most probably, not Hydrogen captured and stored in high-pressure, costly and risky Titanium tanks,</p><p>but Hydrogen represented by high-density,</p><p>low carbon footprint, sustainably produced Advanced Biofuels such as</p><p>Ethanol, Biodiesel, Biogas & Biomethane</p><p>Electrification with Biofuels: model for expansion</p><p>of a clean & efficient solution in mobility</p><p>36</p><p>Plinio Nastari</p><p>plinio@datagro.com</p><p>T +55 11 4133.3944</p><p>F +55 11 4195.6659</p><p>www.datagro.com</p><p>image2.png</p><p>image3.emf</p><p>581241897267580100200300400500600USAChinaBrazilIndiaJapanRussia</p><p>image4.emf</p><p>42%23%19%6%3%7%Electricity and HeathTransportIndustryResidencesServicesOthers</p><p>image5.emf</p><p>16%43%31%10%ElectricityTransportIndustryOthers</p><p>image6.emf</p><p>45,1%28,1%10,4%13,0%3,4%Diesel AGasoline AAnhydrous EthanolHydrous EthanolBiodiesel</p><p>image7.emf</p><p>0,500,700,901,101,301,501,701,90020406080100120140160180Energy Consumption Ce ( MJ/km)Total Emission of GHG -ETGEE(gCO2e/km)Ce x ETGGE-Energy Consumption (MJ/km) x Total Emission of GHG (gCO2e/km)ICE Fossil/MHICE E100/MHICE HOF/MHICE Brazil E39-55Hybrid Fossil EUHybrid E100Electric EUElectric BiomassEthanol Fuel Cell20172030/MH2040/MH201720172040/PH20172030/PH2021201720172040/MH/2G2040/PH20172030/PH204020212027/MH204020172021201720252030/MH2040/MH/2G201720212030/PH2040/PH2040/PH201720252030/PH203020212040Eth Fuel Cell20302025ICE-Internal Combustion EngineMH -Mild (Leve) HybridPH -Hybrid Plug-inEU -EuropeGreen-renewableC/ RBio -w/ RenovaBio202220252030/MH2040/MH/2G2022</p><p>image8.emf</p><p>166135144104139821298045202314131011020406080100120140160180</p><p>image13.emf</p><p>image14.emf</p><p>image9.png</p><p>image10.emf</p><p>image11.emf</p><p>image12.emf</p><p>image15.png</p><p>Microsoft_Excel_Worksheet1.xlsx</p><p>Sheet1</p><p>X-Values		Y-Values</p><p>6600		5500</p><p>12700		9200</p><p>image16.jpeg</p><p>image17.jpeg</p><p>image18.jpeg</p><p>image19.jpeg</p><p>image24.emf</p><p>image25.emf</p><p>image26.emf</p><p>image20.png</p><p>image21.emf</p><p>image22.emf</p><p>image23.emf</p><p>image27.jpg</p><p>image28.jpeg</p><p>image29.jpeg</p><p>image30.png</p><p>image31.emf</p><p>- 15,0 30,0 45,0 60,0 75,0 90,0Million tons of Sugar Equivalent (TRS)SugarAnhydrousHydrous</p><p>image32.emf</p><p>9,9%38,2%1,5%3,5%9,5%25,0%12,4%10,0%3,2%8%0,0%5,0%10,0%15,0%20,0%25,0%30,0%35,0%40,0%45,0%</p><p>image33.jpeg</p><p>image34.png</p><p>image35.emf</p><p>-10.1% Reduction</p><p>in C I</p><p>20182028</p><p>Otto Cycle Fuel</p><p>(gas eq)*56,069,5</p><p>Gasoline A (pure)</p><p>31,130,0</p><p>Anhydrous Ethanol</p><p>11,511,1</p><p>Hydrous Ethanol</p><p>15,236,0</p><p>Total Ethanol26,747,1</p><p>Diesel Cycle</p><p>57,073,9</p><p>Diesel A (pure)</p><p>51,262,8</p><p>Biodiesel5,711,1</p><p>CNG</p><p>(gas eq)*2,52,5</p><p>Biomethane 00,25</p><p>Jet Fuel</p><p>7,29,5</p><p>Bio Jet Fuel00,36</p><p>* Values in Gasoline Equivalent</p><p>Target Considered</p><p>Demand (million m3)</p><p>image36.png</p><p>image37.jpg</p><p>image38.jpeg</p><p>image1.png</p>