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WASTE MANAGEMENT INDICATORS 
 
Carvalho Jr., F.H., Civil Enginnering Ph. D. – Brazil - frabeto@gmail.com 
 
Rocha, G.N., Environment Enginnering.- Brazil - nobregleyciane@gmail.com 
 
Aquino. M.D., Fishing Enginnering Ph. D – Brazil - marisete@ufc.br 
 
Juca. J.F.T., Civil Enginnering Ph. D- Brazil- jucah@ufpe.br 
 
ABSTRACT 
 
The rate of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) has increased much more than the urban 
population, even in regions where the birth rate is high. The reasons for this growth can be various, yet the 
cultural and economic factors are the most relevant. The environmental impacts of this growth can be noticed 
especially in large cities such as Fortaleza, CE, with characteristics of commercial and tourist city. This research 
sought to examine the reasons for the growth of the urban waste, particularly in Brazil and in the city of 
Fortaleza. It was sought as the main hypothesis the correlation of MSW generation and the economic growth, 
caused by consumerism. We studied the influential sustainability indicators for the growth of waste generation. 
Through the SPSS statistical tool, we selected the related indicators, and then we applied a multiple regression to 
find the response equation that quantifies the total of waste to Fortaleza, in the period between 2001 and 2011. 
The results obtained represent the indicators well because the reliability was 80.9% of the predicted value. The 
remaining 19.1% is explained by other indicators that are not in the model. Sustainability indicators chosen 
were: INPC, IPCA, GINI Indicator, power consumption, GDP, consumption of treated water, time, HDI and the 
urban population. Among all the indicators analyzed, those ones that showed the highest correlation to the 
response equation were, in order, the electricity consumption, GDP, consumption of treated water, time, HDI and 
the urban population. According to the equation-response, validated for the city of Fortaleza, allowed to 
conclude on the need to involve the model of production and consumption with the modern generation of 
municipal solid waste. As the results of this study, we conclude that the environmental sustainability indicators 
that influence the generation of municipal solid waste for the city of Fortaleza, hierarchically are: electricity 
consumption, GDP at current prices, consumption of treated water, time , HDI and the urban population. 
Keywords: Waste generation. Sustainability indicators. Consumerism. Municipal Solid Waste. Correlation. 
Environmental Impacts. 
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INTRODUCTION 
The growth and longevity of the population, coupled with the intense urbanization and expansion of the use of new 
technologies, lead to the production of large quantities of waste. 
About 1.3 billion tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) is generated on Earth each year. This amount could double 
in 2025, if not reduce consumerism, most responsible for this exponential growth, especially in developing countries. 
This is a great challenge to managers, concerned about the consequences to public and environmental health in cities 
(Gardner, 2012). 
It is increasingly evident that the adoption of standards for sustainable production and consumption and the proper 
management of solid waste can significantly reduce impacts to the environment and health. In richer countries that 
produce larger amounts of waste, there is more capacity to equalize the management, for a sum of factors that include 
economic resources, environmental concerns of the population and technological development. In cities in developing, 
very rapidly urbanizing countries, check whether deficits in financial and administrative capacity and infrastructure to 
provide these essential services like water, sanitation, collection, garbage disposal, and housing, and to ensure safety 
and quality control environment for the population. 
According to the Report of the Regional Evaluation of Municipal Solid Waste Management in Latin America and 
the Caribbean (AVAL, 2010), the generation of MSW is driven by economic and cultural factors. Moreover, given the 
influence of population factors and their concentration occurs in urban areas. This is illustrated by the case of Latin 
America and the Caribbean, where the proportion of the urban population compared to rural risen from 68% in 1985, 
76% in 2005 and 79% in 2010. LAC's population increased from 518 to 588.6 million people, among 2001 and 2008 
(TELLO ESPINOZA, P. et al., 2011). 
On the road to sustainability, each sector (society, government and businesses) must assume its responsibility in the 
formation of a new growth model; growth with development, but that is sustainable. Thus, the environmental 
management systems are good examples of the incorporation of environmental issues to the culture of organizations. 
In Brazil, the need linked to a neo-liberal policy encouraged capitalist economy, the past decades, the unbridled 
consumerism. What lasted became disposable, one of the serious environmental challenges faced by large urban 
centers, which are increasingly composing the large volumes of waste generated by the population. The option to 
accelerate consumerism, towards economic development, society does not take into account the fact that nature has its 
time a biogeochemical time is much slower than the need of the consumerist and capitalist society. The total generation 
of municipal waste in Brazil, according to research by the Brazilian Association of Public Cleaning and Special Waste 
(ABRELPE), registered a growth of 23.58% between 2001 and 2011, higher than the rate of urban population growth 
rate country, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), was 13.21% in the same period 
(ABRELPE, 2010, 2011, IBGE, 2012e, 2012h). 
The per capita MSW generation was also subject to an increase in all regions of Brazil, and the Northeast Region in 
2011, overcame all, coming to 1.30 kg / inhab.day. Already in Fortaleza, the per capita generation increased 57.94%, 
from 1.32 kg / inhab.day in 2001 2.09 kg / inhab.day in 2011. These changes occurred after the economic growth in 
recent years (ABRELPE , 2011; ACFOR 2012). 
One sign of change is the gravimetric composition MSW. The percentage of organic fraction in Fortaleza fell from 
45.49% in 2005 to 43% in 2012 (FIRM, 2005; ACFOR 2012). As the Local Authority for the Settlement, Surveillance 
and Control of Public Sanitation Services (ACFOR), this happened due to the higher consumption and increased 
disposal, mainly packaging (ACFOR 2012). 
The situation in Brazil is even more precarious when about 4,000 landfills are in operation, and contributing to the 
contamination of the environment and affect the quality of life (Jucá, 2011). The situation is aggravated by the presence 
of scavengers and families surviving in the dumps. 
The generation of municipal waste depends on several factors, among them the average income of the population. 
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is linked to higher consumption and greater purchasing power. Thus, the largest 
waste generation grows according to the purchasing power and not only by population growth. 
The expansion of the economy led most popular consumer goods. Indeed, the intensification of trade on a global 
scale brings a plethora of goods at low cost and that when obsolete, discarded. One example is the amount of electronic 
waste in Brazil, discarded by successive models (Barros, 2012). 
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The MSW is an indicator of environmental sustainability, as manifest the direction of the economy and social 
conditions of a society. Itis a kind of record of situations as an economic crisis or an improvement in median household 
income. In our daily waste the synthesis of our actions and human actions that identify us is found, and the daily amount 
of waste collected in a city is the mean of the way we live and how we feed, clothe, fun, work and what consume. 
The aim of this paper was to determine which sustainability indicators that influence the generation of MSW by 
developing a specific model for the City of Fortaleza. 
 
MATERIALS AND METHODS 
For the study, we selected a set of social, economic and environmental indicators that could influence the generation 
of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) for the city of Fortaleza. The data surveyed included a timeframe for the years 2001-
2011. Primary data were collected from several government agencies such as the Local Authority for the Settlement, 
Surveillance and Control of Public Sanitation Services (ACFOR), Energy Company of Ceará (COELCE) , Water and 
Sewage Company of Ceará (CAGECE) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Were also 
supplemented with secondary data found in publications in scientific journals, theses and dissertations. 
The constant flow chart in Figure 1 shows all the steps involved during the methodological step, critical to the 
development of research. 
 
Figura 1 - Flowchart of Research Development 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015. 
Statistical Analysis: Descriptive Statistics and Inferential 
 
Formulation and Application Equation - Answers 
 
Evaluation and Interpretation of Results Application of 
Statistical Tools - SPSS 
 
Application of Statistical Tools - SPSS 
 
Multiple Regression Equation - Answers 
 
 
Conclusions and Recommendations 
Acceptance Model to 
Fortaleza 
SELECTION OF 
INDICATORS 
Problem Identification 
 
Research Project 
 
Sustainability Indicators 
Research in Literature 
Primary and Secondary 
Database 
Selection of Sustainability 
Indicators Most Influential 
Generation of MSW 
Characterization of the Study Area - City of Fortaleza 
 
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Applied a statistical treatment of the data by means of SPSS statistical tool for choosing the related indicators that 
defined the equation in order to measure the generation of MSW to Fortaleza. Finally, it was found, through the 
multiple correlation, the formulation of the equation for calculating the amount of MSW. 
Initially, we examined, by means of line graphs, data MSW generation in Brazil, along with indicators of urban 
population and GDP in the period 2001-2011 in order to ascertain whether the growth curve of national data externava a 
similar behavior with the same data for the city of Fortaleza. This was the element that stimulated and challenged this 
search for said County. 
After a comparative analysis, other words, a general analysis of the data, we studied in more detail the data the 
Municipality of Fortaleza in the same period (2001-2011). We incorporate new sustainability indicators and applied a 
statistical analysis to generate a specific model for the City of Fortaleza. We also formulate some questions such as: 
what are the social, economic and environmental indicators that influence the generation of MSW? What are the most 
influential indicators selected according to a hierarchical order? What is the equation for the generation of MSW, using 
sustainability indicators selected? 
To answer the questions raised, we made a literature review on the subject. This review aimed to understand what is 
going on with the generation of MSW in several Brazilian cities like Fortaleza, Sao Paulo, Porto Alegre, Curitiba and 
João Pessoa, and also in some EU countries, USA and LAC. We analyze economic growth, social and environmental 
aspects and influence in relation to the generation of MSW and consumerism. 
For the study, we selected a set of social, economic and environmental indicators that could influence the generation 
of MSW for the city of Fortaleza. The data surveyed included a timeframe for the years 2001-2011. Primary data were 
collected from several government agencies, such as ACFOR, COELCE, CAGECE and IBGE. Were also supplemented 
with secondary data found in publications in scientific journals, theses, dissertations and websites. 
Social indicators chosen were the Human Development Index - HDI, the Gini Index and the urban population of 
Fortaleza. Economic indicators were total GDP, GDP per capita, the National Consumer Price Index - IPCA and the 
National Consumer Price Index - INPC. Environmental indicators suggested for this research were treated water 
consumption, energy consumption, generation of MSW and its per capita. All indicators chosen have influence on 
consumerism and hence the generation of MSW. 
Indeed, the selection of indicators was based on identification of key aspects of the theme, in this case, consumerism 
and the generation of MSW. Statistical tool that permitted the constitution of a system, which would be from those who 
have greater correlation to those who have them, ie we try to verify that the most appropriate and available to perform 
this measurement indicators were was used. 
Preliminary statistical processing, proceeded to analyzes for each of the indicators, comparing them with the 
generation of MSW from Fortaleza. 
After application of statistical analysis to the data, was made choice of indicators that defined the equation in order 
to measure the generation of MSW to Fortaleza. A ranking of the most influential indicators was to answer one of the 
questions posed in the beginning of the research. 
Finally, we found through multiple regression, the formulation of the equation for calculating the amount of MSW. 
Was therefore applied this equation to validate the model. 
This preliminary analysis of the work was important because it showed through the charts, that for some years there 
has been rapid changes in the growth of a particular indicator, which often coincides with economic situations in the 
country and lived in Fortaleza. 
To which the answer would be leading indicators, according to a hierarchical order, the growth curve of MSW 
generation, we decided to do research on an analysis of the set of all aggregate indicators. 
The other point to be raised concerns the interpenetration of the dimensions of sustainability, which makes it 
sometimes difficult to define what would be the most suitable for the insertion of a particular subject area indicator. 
Thus, when necessary, we use a set of indicators in more than one dimension, as in the case of the indicator energy 
consumption, which could be inserted both in the environmental area as the economic. 
The selected indicators have not worked with assigning weights, as this would be arbitrary, which would escape the 
scope of work. 
Some limitations occurred. The first was the search for reliable data. Often, discloses a given, but then there is a fix. 
This situation was resolved, we check always looking for sources and work with the most updated rates possible during 
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the preparation of the article. The choice of the period between 2001 to 2011 occurred by the data obtained with greater 
reliability. Social, economic and environmental - in all, nine indicators were surveyed. 
The second limitation relates to the difficulty of aggregating multiple indicators without distorting the result of the 
amount ofMSW. Maybe it was one of the causes when, in the beginning, use a tool for multicriteria choice of 
indicators. 
The third limitation was applied to the data are found in their ranges. This decision arose from the need to do a 
model for the city of Fortaleza, in a practical manner using the proposed equation. 
In summary, the methodology of the study was to select a set of environmental sustainability indicators that could 
draw a socioeconomic and environmental context of the city of Fortaleza in relation to the generation of MSW. Thus, it 
was possible to build future scenarios for the generation of MSW from Fortaleza, in using the selected indicators and 
applying equation. 
The application of the new equation aims to find the amount of MSW to Fortaleza, providing less error sizing the 
public waste collection services, treatments and equipment, especially when approaching the projection of the amount 
of MSW. Will also serve to monitor the per capita production of MSW and its correlations with indicators of 
sustainability. 
 
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 
The rate of generation of MSW has grown much more than the urban population. The reasons for this growth can be 
various, yet the cultural and economic factors are the most relevant. The environmental impacts of this growth can be 
noticed, especially in large cities, like the City of Fortaleza, with characteristics of commercial and tourist city. 
The total generation of MSW in Brazil, according to research by the Brazilian Association of Public Cleaning and 
Special Waste (ABRELPE), registered a growth of 1.8% between 2010 and 2011, higher than the rate of urban 
population growth rate of the country that, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), was 
0.9% in the same period. Already a per capita generation of MSW in Brazil grew 6.18% between the years 2000-2011, 
being 359.40 kg / hab.ano to 381.60 kg / hab.ano respectively (ABRELPE, 2010, 2011, IBGE , 2012). 
The per capita MSW generation was also subject to an increase in all regions of Brazil, and the Northeast Region in 
2011, overcame all, coming to 1.30 kg / inhab.day. Already in Fortaleza, the per capita generation increased 57.94%, 
from 1.32 kg / inhab.day in 2001 2.09 kg / inhab.day in 2011. These changes occurred after the economic growth in 
recent years (ABRELPE , 2011; ACFOR 2012). 
The generation of municipal waste depends on several factors, among them the average income of the population. 
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is linked to higher consumption and greater purchasing power. Thus, the largest 
waste generation grows according to the purchasing power and not only by population growth. 
The expansion of the economy led most popular consumer goods. Indeed, the intensification of trade on a global 
scale brings a plethora of goods at low cost and that when obsolete, discarded. One example is the amount of electronic 
waste in Brazil, discarded by successive models (Barros, 2012). 
The MSW is an indicator of environmental sustainability, as manifest the direction of the economy and social 
conditions of a society. It is a kind of record of situations as an economic crisis or an improvement in median household 
income. In our daily waste the synthesis of our actions and human actions that identify us is found, and the daily amount 
of waste collected in a city is the mean of the way we live and how we feed, clothe, fun, work and what consume. 
Campos (2013) made a comparative analysis among the population, the generation of MSW and the Brazilian GDP, 
from 2002 to 2009, which shows that the per capita generation of MSW has grown more than the population, and GDP 
has grown less than the generation of solid waste -. it from 2009 Therefore, GDP drives consumerism, which increases 
the per capita MSW, and from there generating tends to grow. To be a disassociation between the generation and GDP, 
there must be investment in the areas of reclamation and recycling. This would give the country good economic returns 
and new business opportunities. Figure 2 illustrates the above. 
 
 
 
 
 
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Generation 
of MSW 
Economic Indicators: 
PIB - INPC - IPCA 
Social Indicators: 
HDI - GINI Index - Urban 
Population 
Environmental indicators: 
Water Consumpt/Eletric 
Power Consumpt 
Figure 2 - Generation of MSW, population and GDP - Brazil - 2002-2009. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Campos, 2013. 
 
Sustainability Indicators Studied 
The sustainability indicators chosen for analysis were divided into environmental and health indicators, social 
indicators and economic indicators. Figure 3 shows the independent variables on the basis of the dependent variable 
(generation of MSW). 
 
Figure 3 - Variables studied. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015. 
 
 
Statistical analysis began by descriptive statistics, then there was the statistical inference, which craved infer 
characteristics of a population mainstay in the observed data. To analyze the normality of the data, we applied the 
Shapiro-Wilk. After, was realized multivariate analysis and correlation. Was achieved with the correlation of the data, 
and then using the method of multiple regression, we found the desired prediction equation. After choosing the method 
of Pearson correlation was obtained, in Table 1, the degree of relationship between variables. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Table 1 - Degree of relationship between the variables selected to Fortaleza - 2001-2011. 
 
 
Year 
R$ Million 
GDP at 
current 
prices(x1000) 
HDI 
Urban 
Population 
INPC IPCA Gini 
Energy 
Accumulated 
(kWh / year) 
Water 
Consumption 
(m³ / year) 
MSW 
generation 
(t / year) 
Year 100,0% 
 
R$ Million 
GDP at 
current prices 
(x 1000) 
99,1% 100,0% 
 
HDI 67,1% 73,5% 100,0% 
 
Urban 
Population 
93,0% 87,9% 46,4% 100,0% 
 
INPC -61,0% -53,1% -10,4% -74,9% 100,0% 
 
IPCA -59,9% -52,8% -8,1% -72,7% 96,4% 100,0% 
 
Gini -53,4% -44,7% 4,9% -63,7% 50,3% 48,3% 100,0% 
 
Energy 
Accumulated 
(kWh / year) 
93,2% 96,7% 83,9% 76,8% -44,1% -44,7% -25,1% 100,0% 
 
Water 
Consumption 
(m³ / year) 
99,1% 99,4% 73,3% 90,1% -56,4% -56,7% -42,8% 95,9% 100,0% 
 
MSW 
generation 
(t/year) 
83,4% 88,3% 82,8% 61,6% -26,2% -31,6% -29,2% 92,9% 86,0% 100,0% 
 
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015. 
 
It was noted that the generation of MSW in Fortaleza, between the years 2001 to 2011, had a strong correlation, 
other words, above 70% (83.44%). This proves that not only was growth linked to the urban population, but especially 
with growth in economy standards, because of consumption, especially of social classes which amounted in recent 
years. 
Importantly, the variables that had a stronger positive correlation with the generation of solid waste were: Energy 
Consumption (R = 92.85%), GDP (R = 88.29%), water consumption (R = 86%), time (R = 83.44%), and HDI (R = 
82.84%), other words, these variables express a relationship of cause and effect with the generation of MSW. Means 
that, as these variables increase, the generation of waste is subject to an increase correspondingly. Other variables: 
IPCA, INPC and the GINI index are the least relate to the generation of MSW. So not been selected to formulate the 
equation response. 
 
Found regression model can thus be defined by the equation-response (1): 
 
Y = (-18.863.381,14) + 0,052X1 + 28.231.315,30X2– 1,27X3 + 0,00046X4 - 0,017X5 (1), 
 
This: 
Y = Generation of MSW to Fortaleza 
X1 = GDP 
X2 = HDI 
X3 = Urban Population 
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000
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
RS
U 
-to
n/a
no
Geracao RSU (Real) - ton/ano
Geracao RSU ( Curva de Regressão) -
ton/ano
Periodo
X4 = Accumulated Energy 
X5 = Water Consumption 
 
 
The two growth curves of generation of MSW for the Municipality of Fortaleza are shown in Figure 4. 
 
 
 Figure 4 - Growth curves of generation of MSW to Fortaleza - 2001-2011. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015. 
 
The model represents the data well because the dependability was 80.9%, ie 80.9% of predicted value, being 
explained by the variables were in the model. The remaining 19.1% is explained by other variables that are not those in 
the model, and there is no way to control these. 
Checking the residual standard error, or standard error of the estimate for the average solid waste, we found that the 
observed values are ranging on average 12.8% over the values predicted by the model, other words, a low error ideal for 
a good prediction model. 
This model can be used to correctly predict the amount of solid waste generated; however, only the response 
equation for the City of Fortaleza can be used. 
For other cities, it is necessary to analyze the local sustainability indicators, which can test the same indicators of 
sustainability of this research, following the steps above. Each city will however have your model. 
 
CONCLUSION 
Depending on the results of this study, we conclude that the environmental sustainability indicators that influence 
the generation of municipal solid waste for the city of Fortaleza, hierarchically are: electricity consumption, GDP at 
current prices, consumption of treated water, time , HDI and the urban population. 
Additional indicators analyzed as the IPCA, the GINI index and the INPC, are variables that have a weak correlation 
with the generation of municipal waste to Fortaleza. Therefore, it is useful to say that there is no significant relation of 
cause and effect between them. Therefore, they were not selected to be part of the equation-response. 
The indicated-like equation to quantify the response of MSW generation model is efficient and can be used for the 
city of Fortaleza. 
It was found specifically in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, there is an increase in the generation of MSW from the last 
decade, due not only to the increase of urban population in Brazil, but mainly because of fluctuations the economy in a 
country that is rapidly developing. These changes result from the consumerism that encourages people, spreading a set 
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of values and behaviors centered on the expansion of consumption and disposal of material, exponentially increasing 
the generation of MSW. 
We can see the change in the type of MSW, where the inorganic fraction and plastics are growing at the expense of 
the organic part of leftover food. Also the apparent specific weight of MSW, in general, been declining, due to the 
greater amount of packaging. 
These changes result from the consumerism that encourages people, spreading a set of values and behaviors 
centered on the expansion of consumption and disposal of material, exponentially increasing the generation of MSW. 
The use of this methodology in other regions it is recommended, checking that environmental sustainability 
indicators influencing the growth of per capita generation of municipal solid waste, with the goal of finding a K factor 
that represents the related indicators for each city studied, and thus avoid sizing errors of collection, treatment and 
disposal of MSW equipment. 
The indicated-like equation to quantify the response of MSW generation model is efficient and can be used for the 
city of Fortaleza. 
 
BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES 
BRAZILIAN ASSOCIATION OF CLEANING COMPANIES PUBLIC AND SPECIAL WASTE - ABRELPE. 
Overview of the Solid Waste in Brazil - 2010. 199 p. 2010. 
 
_______. Overview of the Solid Waste in Brazil - 2011. 184 p. 2011. 
 
AUTARCHY REGULARIZATION, SUPERVISION AND CONTROL OF PUBLIC SANITATION - ACFOR. 
The Management Report of Solid Waste from Fortaleza. Fortaleza - CE: Office of Solid Waste. 2005. 
 
Barros et al, Determinants of the decline in income inequality in Brazil. Discussion papers no. In 1460. IPEA. 
Available at: <http://desafios.ipea.gov.br/>. Accessed: Apr 13. 2013. 
 
CAMPOS, H. K. T. Solid Waste and Sustainability: the role of recovery facilities. Dissertation (MSc in 
Sustainable Development) Brasilia: University of Brasilia. 2013. 235 p. 
 
BRAZILIAN INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AND STATISTICS - IBGE. Brazil in numbers. Rio de Janeiro: 
Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management, vol. 20, 2012a.