Respostas Cap 9

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Blanchard – Macroeconomia – 3ª edição
CHAPTER 9 
Quick Check
1.	a.	False.
	b.	True.
	c.	True.
	d.	False.
	e.	False.
	f.	True.
	g.	True.
	h.	True.
	i.	True.
2.	a.	The unemployment rate will increase by 1% per year when g=0.5%. Absent output growth, productivity growth tends to increase the unemployment rate, since fewer workers are required to produce a given quantity of goods. Absent output growth, labor force growth also tends to increase the unemployment rate, since more workers are competing for the same number of jobs. Therefore, unemployment will increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth. 
	b.	We need growth of 4.25% per year for each of the next four years.
	c.	Okun’s law is likely to become: ut-ut-1=-0.4*(gyt-5%)
3.	a.	un= 5%
b.	Assume the economy has been at the natural rate of unemployment for two years (this year 	and last year). Then, gyt = 3%; gmt = gyt + πt = 11%
	c.	 	π 	u 	 gyt	gmt
		t-1: 	8% 	5% 	3% 	11%
 		t: 	4% 	9% -7% -3%
		t+1: 	4% 	5% 	13% 	17%
		t+2: 	4% 	5% 	3% 	 7%
		t+3:	4%	5%	3%	 7%
4. 	a.	See text for full answer. Gradualism reduces need for large policy swings, with effects that are difficult to predict, but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid, favorable changes in inflation expectations. On the other hand, the staggering of wage decisions suggests that, if the policy is credible, a gradual disinflation is the option consistent with no change in the unemployment rate.
	b.	Not clear. Based in Ball's evidence, probably fast disinflation, depending on the features listed in part (c). 
	c.	Some important features: the degree of indexation, the nature of the wage-setting process, and the initial rate of inflation.
5.	a.	Inflation will start increasing. 
	b.	It should let unemployment increase to its new, higher, natural rate. 
Dig Deeper
6.	a.	sacrifice ratio=1
	b.	πt = 10%; πt+1 = 8%; πt+2 = 6%; πt+3 = 4%; πt+4 = 2%
c.	5 years; sacrifice ratio=(10 point years of excess unemployment)/(10 percentage point reduction in inflation)=1
	d.	πt = 8.5%; πt+1 = 5.875%; πt+2 = 3.906%; πt+3 = 2.430%; πt+4 = 1.322%
		Less than 5 years are required; sacrifice ratio: 10/(12-1.322) = 934
The sacrifice ratio is lower because people are somewhat forward looking and incorporate the target inflation rate into their expectations.
e.	t+1. The ex post sacrifice ratio from this scenario = (1 point year of excess unemployment)/(10 point reduction inflation) = 0.1
	
	f.	Take measures to enhance credibility.	
7.	a.	πt-πt-1= -(ut-.05)
		ut- ut-1= -.4*(gmt-πt-.03)
	b.	Assuming gm,t-1=13%, 	πt-1= 10%, ut-1=5%, and gm=3% beginning in year t:
			π		u
		t:	7.1%		7.9%
		t+1:	3.1%		9.1%
		t+2:	-0.7%		8.8%
		t+3:	-3.2%		7.5%
		t+4:	-4.1%		5.9%
		t+5:	-3.5%		4.4%
		t+6:	-2.1%		3.6%
		t+7:	-0.5%		3.4%
		t+8:	0.8%		3.7%
		t+9:	1.5%		4.3%
		t+10:	1.6%		4.9%
Inflation does not decline smoothly. In the early years, the large unemployment rates (relative to the natural rate) reduce inflation to negative values. Since money growth = 3 % = normal output growth in this example, negative inflation drives real money growth (and hence output growth) above the normal output growth rate, and unemployment falls. Eventually, unemployment falls below the natural rate, inflation begins to increase again. These cycles continue, with decreasing amplitude.
u=5% and π=0% in the medium run.
8. Novo
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