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Confidence
People are confident in their studying skills but studies consistently show that most people are actually
overconfident, especially in areas where they have only a little knowledge. The Dunning-Kruger graph
shows people’s confidence relative to their knowledge. 
Mount Stupid
The first peak is Mount Stupid. This is where people gain a lot of confidence because their knowledge in a
new topic has increased by many folds in a short period of time. However, even though they may have
achieved a 10x increase in knowledge, this is still very little absolute knowledge because their initial starting
point was nothing!
This phenomenon gives birth to people having confidence despite having low levels of knowledge. It
is called Mount Stupid because more knowledgeable people can very clearly realise the deficiencies
in these confident people, usually within seconds of having a conversation on the topic.
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https://www.psychologytoday.com/basics/dunning-kruger-effect#:~:text=The%20Dunning-Kruger%20effect%20is,accurately%20assessing%20their%20own%20skills.
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Many high school students are unfortunately at this stage as they are exposed to the concept of
studying technique and efficiency for the first time only during their final few years of high school.
Students who are high achieving are especially susceptible as they assume that they must have a
high level of knowledge and expertise because they are doing well in the assessments, despite the
reality that the assessments are scaled to be easy enough for people to do well in them!
Valley of Despair
The first dip is known as the Valley of Despair, it is when we realise that there is actually so much more that
we don’t know about a topic after they have delved deeper into the topic. Typically, this is where a lot of PhD
candidates are at, after having studied the topic for 5+ years. 
Slope of Enlightenment
The slope of enlightenment is a period of decades in order to gain knowledge, eventually reaching the
peak where someone has mastered a topic. 
Note from Justin: When students ask me “can I master studying techniques over the summer?”,
where do you think I plot them on this graph?
Controversy around the Dunning Kruger effect
Since around 2020, there has been increasing debate around the validity of the Dunning Kruger effect and
the famous Dunning Kruger curve which is commonly used to show knowledge vs confidence (the same
graph we used in our explanation).
Against Dunning Kruger
The arguments against Dunning Kruger are a valid scientific inquiry, with the most robust arguments
posting that all humans are generally susceptible to bias, rather than bias disproportionately affecting those
with lower knowledge.
This is a contentious point in that while we do know that bias affects all humans, there is also
research suggesting that systems of proactively moderating biases are effective, as well as research
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around the illusion of competency and illusion of fluency which closely parallel the findings from the
Dunning Kruger effect.
In reality, we are almost certainly oversimplifying the relationship between knowledge and
confidence. There are plenty of overconfident people who are highly skilled, and plenty of unskilled
and unknowledgeable beginners who are rightly humble.
Against the graph
Some contest the validity of the effect because the graph itself is not from the original paper. However,
proponents of this tend to ignore the empirical support for this graph that has subsequently been observed
in a range of studies since. We provide some key examples in the references below.
The state of the science
The current state of science is not conclusive. Based on the current literature, we can say with reasonable
confidence that:
Knowledge and skill level does seem to have an influence on confidence.
Unlike many other psychological processes, the Dunning Kruger effect has some neurophysiological
evidence to support the usage of different cognitive processes in over or under-estimators.
The extent and universality of this is not clearly defined and it seems to vary depending on context.
Overconfidence seems to be most consistently found for skills than domain knowledge, which varies
more significantly between studies.
The level of over or under-estimation seems to depend on the difficulty and complexity of the task
(more complex tasks are more likely to have overconfidence), actual knowledge and expertise of the
person, and the person’s level of personal self-esteem and general self-confidence.
Peripheral, semi-consilient research on cognitive biases and perceptions of skill and expertise is
broadly supportive of a Dunning Kruger pattern.
Knowing about the Dunning Kruger effect can be protective for it.
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The final point is incredibly important and is one of the most recent findings, in that training
someone on Dunning Kruger can be enough to statistically eliminate it from some empirical studies!
Our experience
In our own experience, we have strongly found that new members who are overconfident have a massively
higher proportion of technique error compared to students that are:
Intuitively overconfident but self-moderate and force humility and open-mindedness
Intuitively underconfident and doubt their abilities
By far, with no comparison, the worst results received by our students are from beginners who are
overconfident, usually because they have a level of prior academic success with their previous techniques.
While the techniques that do work well from them are usually quite valid, we’ve found that
overconfidence can prevent them from changing the parts that don’t work or hold them back. In
many cases, this unwillingness to change or modify techniques causes barriers to improving their
techniques further in later stages, when many component skills must be mastered before combining
them into an advanced version.
On research validity
A common mistake from non-scientists is to look at only one or two articles to form an opinion about the
scientific validity of something. This is rarely sufficient.
To fully understand the nuances of a topic, dozens if not hundreds of articles must be evaluated to form a
comprehensive opinion that is as free from publication bias as possible.
References
Note that this list of references is not a comprehensive review of all the relevant literature, but just some of the
supporting research for the statements made in this single lesson.
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How are you feeling?
263 responses
38 COMMENTS
Eleana Xu
 1 year ago
I’ve noticed that the Dunning-Kruger graph closely aligns with Maslow’s hierarchy of competence. Mt
Stupid is unconscious incompetence: we don’t know what we don’t know so we feel like we know a lot.
The valley of despair is conscious incompetence: we know enough to realise we don’t actually know
much at all. Getting up the slope of enlightenment is conscious competence. As for unconscious
competence, we could maybe say that we never truly reach it, as the slope of enlightenment could
potentially go on forever yet we can never learn all the knowledge in the world. But for the purposes of
knowing when to move on, we can define unconscious competence as mastery of a certain technique
when it feels… Read more »
58 Reply
Marlon Reyes
 Reply to   1 year ago
It’s very interesting. I never thought about like that.
Love
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Mind-blown
63
Confused
10
Weary
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Crying
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Eleana Xu
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0 Reply
Jann-Tyler Zantua
 Reply to   1 year ago
Nice analogy!
2 Reply
Derrick Mah
 2 years ago
Hi I’m at the end of fitness training but I’m not sure whether I should go on – I’ve spent just over a week
on briefing but would I be sabotaging myself if I went onto technical training at this stage?
2 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   2 years ago
It depends. How familiar are you with, with all the techniques taught in this section? Are you able to
recall all the new tecniques introduced? Have you introduced the techniques in your daily practices
and are you using it with high proficiency?
0 Reply
Derrick Mah
 Reply to   2 years ago
I was able to recall most of the content that I learnt in my initial round of note taking in revision
and have been incorporating it into my own practices. But I think I might sit on these techniques
until the live clinic just to make sure I didn’t mess anything up.
1 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   2 years ago
That’s a good idea. Not good to progress until you are sure you are proficient in the
processes taught.
2 Reply
Eleana Xu
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qwerty poiyoity
 1 year ago
Given the ludicrous claims Elon Musk has made about going to mars, especially at the time when this
video was made, I think Elon Musk was on mount stupid.
2 Reply
Susanne P.
 1 year ago
So, my old study system is no good – which I know… I mean, that’s why I joined this course.
But when do I finally get to throw away the tooth brush and get a paint roller *lol
 Last edited 1 year ago by Susanne P.
1 Reply
Dupe Obatoki
 2 years ago
I can’t go onto the next stage. I’ve finished the briefing stage but there is no button to allow me to
complete the ‘learning contract section 4’.
0 Reply
Dupe Obatoki
 Reply to   2 years ago
There isn’t even a comment section. It just tells me that I’ve already taken this checkpoint and I can not
take it again.
0 Reply
Sahithya Paramasivam
 Reply to   2 years ago
If you go to the ICS home page and look at the ‘My Progress’ section, you’ll be able to start the
next stage. Hope it works for you.
0 Reply
Dupe Obatoki
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Dupe Obatoki
 Reply to   2 years ago
It works. Thank you.
 Last edited 2 years ago by Dupe Obatoki
1 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 2 years ago
Hi Maria, Did you have a question pertaining to this lesson?
0 Reply
Tejas Rajaputhran
 1 year ago
When students ask me “can I master studying techniques over the summer?”, where do you think I plot
them on this graph?-
They have reached Mt.Stupid and come down slightly, but they still don’t know how much information
they don’t know?
0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   1 year ago
If they are asking that, they are probably very near the beginning. It’s hard to pinpoint without further
context.
1 Reply
Yannick Stinus
 1 year ago
Hi, Ive done a bit about the Dunning-Kruiger effect, even before this course and I took a look at the
original publication etc. and from what Ive read, the Dunning Kruiger effect courve looks a bit different
(although widely presented like this). Is this intentional? (for the students of the course)
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/how-do-you-know/202012/dunning-kruger-isnt-real
Here is a link from psychology today 
Sahithya Paramasivam
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0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   1 year ago
Hi Yannick, We’ve added on this lesson to address the controversy around the Dunning Kruger effect
graph. Please scroll down to read it in the text.
0 Reply
Angela King
 Reply to   1 year ago
This is a great response to this question. I also really like the indications at the bottom and
references so that we can really inform ourselves not just about the Dunning-Kruger effect, but
also why Justin is emphasizing this concept in the course. Thanks Yannick for bringing it up, and
the great response from iCS.
1 Reply
David Ortiz
 1 year ago
Thank you, Justin, and many others who put in the time to learn how to learn, to the point where you are
teaching others the correct ways to approach learning.
0 Reply
Chirag Mandhani
 1 year ago
Note from Justin: When students ask me “can I master studying techniques over the summer?”, where
do you think I plot them on this graph?
You would most probably plot these students on top of Mt Stupid. They have been exposed to a couple
of techniques here and there, leading them to believe be overconfident in their studying skills as these
skills are MUCH better compared to their previous non-existent skills. As they actually attempt to
“master” the studying techniques over the holidays, they realise how little they know about studying
skills (as there is so much to learn), falling off Mt Stupid and into the Valley of Despair, losing their
confidence as they go.
 Last edited 1 year ago by Chirag Mandhani
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Lamees Abu Mwise
 1 year ago
So I am pretty not confident with anything regarding my study strategy at this point. And I know that the
only time that I am going to see a relatively good to great improvements will take at least 3 months. Does
that mean I have surpassed the MT stupid and I am around valley of despair? Is this a good sign??? And
will this course build my confidence step by step back? with the most efficient techniques possible ?
 Last edited 1 year ago by Lamees Abu Mwise
0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   1 year ago
It’s quite possible you are at the beginning, or that you are an exception to this mount stupid
occurance. Doesn’t really matter, this lesson is here to warn about overconfidence.
0 Reply
Lamees Abu Mwise
 Reply to   1 year ago
I don’t think I am an exception, this is because I spend over 2 months exploring Dr Justin’s and
Archer youtube channel applying and experimenting with everything they introduce, until I
realized that there should be more that I don’t know about, and I want that knowledge no
matter what, this is why I joined the course.
 Last edited 1 year ago by Lamees Abu Mwise
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Caryn Dudley
 1 year ago
My take-away from the D-K curve is that if we feel confident, it is possible that we’re over-confident and
think we’re more competent than we actually are, which makes us vulnerable to poor decision-making
based on this illusion (like dismissing study advice we actually need to follow).
Knowing that this is possible allows us to check ourselves for it any time feel confident.
0 Reply
Jaime Teo
 1 year ago
What does “training someone on Dunning Kruger can be enough to statistically eliminate it from some
empirical studies” mean? Does it mean that once someone is aware of the effect, they no longer fall prey
to it and therefore won’t “fit” the curve?
0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   1 year ago
Yes, essentially their data becomes too biased to be used objectively. However, it won’t always be the
case they no longer ‘fall prey to it’, the opposite may actually occur.
0 Reply
Aaditya Singh
 1 year ago
i really like this reference section helpful, thankyou for the help 
0 Reply
Dylan Shimmi
 10 months ago
I feel like I’m on Mt Stupidright now when it comes to physics, because I feel like a physicist, cause I’m
overly confident(after a year into the physics course). I’m sure that next year, the valley of despair is
gonna start kicking in.
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Erick Lu
 10 months ago
I’ve just noticed the connection between the naming of the D-K effect points and the naming of the
modules; each module is designed to get us from the valley of despair to our “ascent” onto the slope of
enlightenment.
0 Reply
Krish Bajoria
 6 months ago
Hi, do I have to excel in all the areas of the learning contract before technique training or will i improve
these areas throughout technique training?
0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   6 months ago
It would be good to ensure you are fit enough for technique training. If you realise you are lacking
somewhere, like procrastination, you should work on it using all the tools available and put it as a
marginal gain.
0 Reply
Kirsten Smith
 5 months ago
I like how brutal justin is. He always makes me laugh even when he’s ripping me down. The last 4 months
have been an emotional journey phew. Genuinely love this dude
0 Reply
Ashton Amuwala
 3 months ago
Hi Ashton, I have been practicing pre-study, SIR, collecting-processing via mind-mapping, applying BEDS-
M, and applying importance-vs-urgency based prioritisation to scheduling so far as taught in the high
yield phase. I have also been practicing Kolb’s for the last 3 days and have applied one cycle each to 2
separate skills so far. I just want to get confirmation as to whether I am okay to move onto technique
training at this stage or should I be doing more Kolb’s practice before moving on? Thanks.
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Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   3 months ago
It’s good to see that you are practicing those processes, however, you should be checking to see if you
are practicing those processes correctly or at least you show that you are improving in your application
of those techniques/systems. The best way to confirm this would be to send in your Kolbs for review,
as doing Kolbs properly will ensure you will be continuously improving or know when you need to ask
for help.
1 Reply
Ashton Amuwala
 Reply to   3 months ago
Will do.
0 Reply
Saad Mohammed Ghori
 1 month ago
What if a person has a high IQ? I have an IQ of around 126 apparently. Perhaps in that case they would
need to develop the skill of being metacognitive and then remove or change parts of their process of
thinking/learning that does not work to processes that do work. Is this correct?
0 Reply
Ashton Sheares
 Reply to   1 month ago
IQ is largely irrelevant. Everyone should be more metacognitive, to be more aware of cognitive
processes is huge factor in improving it.
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