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www.cers.com.br STF 2013 Inglês César Lira 1 The US needs to take the hint from Dilma Rousseff's snub The Brazilian president's cancelled visit, over NSA spying, ought to jolt the US out of its arrogant disrespect for Latin America Tuesday's cancellation of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's state visit to the White House, scheduled for next month, came as little surprise. Documents leaked by Edward Snowden, and reported by Glenn Greenwald and TV Globo, had caused an uproar in Brazil. According to the documents and reports, the US government had spied on Dilma's personal communications, and had targeted the computer systems of Brazil's Petrobras, the big oil company that is majority-owned by the state. TV Globo's report indicated that there was information in the targeted Petrobas computer network that could be very valuable to foreign oil companies. Former President Lula da Silva said that Obama should "personally apologize to the world"; and Dilma also demanded a full public apology – which was not forthcoming. The rift with Brazil comes at a time of worsening US relations with Latin America, and especially South America. It is indicative of a much deeper problem. The Obama administration's refusal to recognize the results of the Venezuelan elections in April of this year, despite the lack of doubt about the results and in stark opposition to the rest of the region, displayed an aggressiveness that Washington hadn't shown since it aided the 2002 coup. It brought a sharp rebuke from South America, including Lula and Dilma. When several European governments, clearly acting on behalf of the United States, forced down President Evo Morales' plane in July. President Cristina Kirchner tweeted "They've definitely gone crazy,", and UNASUR (the Union of South American Nations) issued a strong denunciation. The gross violation of international law and diplomatic norms was another flamboyant display of Washington's lack of respect for the region. There are structural reasons for the Obama administration's repeated failures to accept the new reality of independent governments in the region. Although President Obama may want better relations, he is willing to spend about $2 in political capital to accomplish this. And that is not enough. When he tried to appoint an ambassador to Venezuela in 2010, for example, Republicans (including the office of then Senator Richard Lugar) successfully scuttled it. For President Obama, there are generally no electoral consequences from having bad relations with Latin America. Unlike Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, or other areas of armed conflict or potential war, there is no imminent danger that something could blow up in his face, and cause political harm to his administration or party. The region's independence is not going to be reversed and unfortunately, Washington has not yet reached this conclusion about Latin America, and especially South America, whose "second independence" is perhaps one of the most important geopolitical changes in the world over the past 15 years. There is virtually no recognition among the foreign policy establishment in DC – both inside and outside of government – that something important has changed, and that the US government must accept these changes and alter its policy accordingly. Until that happens, don't expect US-Latin American relations to get much warmer http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/201 3/sep/18/us-hint-nsa-dilma-rousseff-snub 1. Based on the text above, judge the items below 1. Brazilian President, Dilma Roussef was supposed to visit the UN next month. 2. Dilma´s decision will certainly not affect the US. 3. The documents leaked by Snowden caused turmoil in Brazil. 4. Petrobras is controlled only by the Brazilian government. 5. Not only Dilma but also a major Brazilian company was spied by the NSA. www.cers.com.br STF 2013 Inglês César Lira 2 2. Based on the text above, judge the items below 6. Brazilian ex-president Lula, said that Obama should apologize to the Brazilian government. 7. Obama himself apologize to the world. 8. American relations with South America is better than ever 9. Obama and his ally in South America didn´t recognize the Venezuela election. 10. 11 years ago the American administration helped the putsch in Venezuela. 3. Judge the items below based on the text above. 11. Bolivian´s president´s plane was forced to land by European Governments last July. 12. Argentina´s President showed repudiation towards the attitude taken on behalf of US administration. 13. Obama is not predisposed to spend political capital to achieve a better relationship with Latin America. 14. Obama is willing to spend money to accomplish better relations with South America. 15. There are no consequences from bad relations whit Latin America countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria. 16. South America´s independence has no going back and Washington hasn´t recognized this yet. 17. America´s relations with Latin America will get better regardless its recognition of South america´s ¨second independence¨ Brazil Auctioning Off Huge Oil Block Amid Protest National Guard officers clash with demonstrators, top, protesting the auction of the Libra oil field near the Windsor hotel where the auction is taking place, on Barra da Tijuca beach in Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 21, 2013 (RIO DE JANEIRO) — Brazil’s government was set to announce the result of an auction of its massive Libra offshore oil block Monday under new rules giving state-run petroleum company Petrobras more control over reserves. Hundreds of protesters wanting to halt the auction clashed with police outside the luxury hotel where the auction results were to be announced, with security officials firing tear gas and rubber bullets at demonstrators. Oil industry analysts decried the new production-sharing rules for auctioning offshore reserves discovered in recent years, which could hold upward of 100 billion barrels of oil and make Brazil one of the globe’s largest exporters. Libra itself could hold up to 12 billion barrels. The new rules mandate that Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras be the sole operator of the fields and hold a minimum 30 percent stake in them. Many say that will reduce the profit for private oil companies and delay the development of Brazil’s fields by making them less attractive for outside investors. Adriano Pires, one of Brazil’s top energy analysts, called the new rules “very interventionist” and said the auction was already a big disappointment, with just 11 companies taking part, while the government had hoped to attract 40. He chalked that up to the new rules for ultra-deep oil that will be expensive to produce. “We are talking about non-conventional oil located 6,000 to 7,000 meters deep,” he said. “The $500 billion that will have to be invested over the next 12 to 15 years made companies conclude that the rate of return made participating in the auction unattractive.” www.cers.com.br STF 2013 Inglês César Lira 3 Brazilian officials are counting on the oil riches to quickly catapult the nation to developed- world status. State officials are locked in arguments about how to split royalties that haven’t surfaced, the Navy is buying submarines to protect the fields and left-wing protesters like those demonstrating Monday demand that the entire industry be nationalized so Brazil doesn’t share a drop of the wealth. But the technology hurdles to reaching the riches are intensely challenging, even for Petrobras, considered a world leader in offshore development. The deep-water reservoirs lie some 185 miles (300 kilometers) offshore in the Atlantic, more than a mile (kilometer) belowthe ocean’s surface and under another 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) of earth and corrosive salt. The salt beds can break loose and shear off piping, making it one of the toughest substances to drill. With a slowing economy and delays in producing that offshore oil, some say the Brazilian government will loosen rules to make them more business friendly when the next auction is held in two to three years. The New York-based Eurasia Group said in a research note that Petrobras’ “growing operational and financial constraints” along with government pressure to stoke a lagging national economy means changes are expected at the next auction. “Allowing international oil companies to develop the pre-salt side by side with Petrobras would kill two birds with one stone,” Eurasia Group wrote. “It would lead to a quicker pace of production in the pre-salt with more investments, and provide needed relief to Petrobras.” It added that “it isn’t lost on government officials that the shale gas and tight oil technological revolution in North America has reduced Brazil’s leverage to attract capital.” About 300 protesters hoping to halt the oil auction tossed tear gas canisters back at police and overturned the car of one local TV channel, setting it aflame. Among the demonstrators were the masked, black-clad “Black Bloc” anarchists who have a growing role in Brazil’s steady drumbeat of protests. The demonstration was originally called by striking oil workers, whose union has long been against any foreign involvement in Brazil’s petroleum production Readmore: http://world.time.com/2013/10/21/br azil-auctioning-off-huge-oil-block-amid- protest/#ixzz2ifn9BUId 4. Based on the text above, judge the items below 18. Demonstrators were trying to stop the auction. 19. It was a pacific with no need to confront the police. 20. Protesters fired tear gas and rubber bullets. 21. Oil industry analysts approved the new production-sharing rules. 22. Just discovered a few years ago, the oil reserves auctioned could hold up upward of 100 million barrels. 23. Petrobras holds up 30% stake and will share fields operation with others state- run companies. 24. The fact of Petrobras be the only field operator and hold a 30% minimum stake, many reduce the profit for other companies and make the action less attractive. 25. The costly price to extract the oil was one of the reasons that less than 30% of the companies expected by the Brazilian government participated took part of the auction. 26. Brazilia hopes the money oil to raise the country to developed-world status. 27. The technology aids to reach the riches very easily since Petrobras is a world leader in offshore development. 28. Due to the difficulty to extract the oil, Brazil will tighten the rules to make more money. 29. The next auction will happen in 2 to 3 year, and according to all analysts, under the same rules. 30. Due to the shale gas and tight oil technological revolution, Brazil has lost its bargain power. www.cers.com.br STF 2013 Inglês César Lira 4 A ripple begets a flood A politically inspired surge in lending is weakening state-owned banks in Latin America’s biggest economy IN 2008 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, then Brazil’s president, boasted that by the time the “tsunami” unleashed by Lehman Brothers’ collapse hit his country’s shores it would dwindle to a “little ripple”. The stimulus programme he put in place helped to carry Brazil through the credit crunch relatively unscathed. But five years later public money is still pumping into its economy, with ever more negative consequences. Public debt is rising. State banks are taking more of the credit market. And the government is warping accounting standards in its attempts to disguise all this. Concerned that consumers are overstretched, private banks have held back on lending in recent years. But since 2008 the corporate loan book of BNDES, the national development bank, has grown by 24% annually, far above nominal-GDP growth of 11%. Caixa Econômica Federal, a state retail bank, has expanded lending by 42% annually for the past three years (see chart). By June state banks had 50.3% of all outstanding credit, up from 33% in 2008—the first time they passed the halfway mark since a wave of bank privatisations in 1999. Caixa’s retail borrowers are often first-timers of unknown creditworthiness. The early months after taking a loan should be the least fraught, meaning the bank’s big expansion should have cut the share of loans in arrears. That it did not suggests trouble for the future. More risks come from a government-subsidised scheme giving poor Brazilians cheap loans to buy computers, furniture and white goods. Leaked documents show that Caixa’s analysts think default rates will be 30-50%. In March Moody’s, a ratings agency, downgraded both BNDES and Caixa to match Brazil’s sovereign debt. Their stand-alone ratings, which assume implicit government support, are now below investment grade. The reason, says Alexandre Albuquerque, a Moody’s analyst, is that both have become entwined with government economic policy: “They are no longer a better risk than public debt.” Much of the state banks’ lending is at rates lower than the government’s own funding costs. The difference is borne by the treasury. Mansueto Almeida of IPEA, a government- funded think-tank, estimates that it will reach 24 billion reais this year—about the same as the Bolsa Família anti-poverty programme, which tops up the income of nearly 14m very poor families. BNDES was set up to increase investment. But even as its loan book has ballooned, Brazil’s overall investment rate has stagnated. Burdensome paperwork and its fondness for national champions mean that much of its lending goes to firms big enough to seek private funding rather than small ones that are starved of credit. Its subsidised rates crowd out private loans. “BNDES loans have replaced some investment from companies’ own resources,” says Gabriel Leal de Barros of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a research institute. “The subsidies mean it can be cheaper to borrow than to self-fund.” The desire to mask the consequences of increased state lending has tempted the government to fudge both its own and the banks’ accounts. Even the government seems at last to realise that the flood of public money gushing through Brazil’s state banks must slow. In April Luciano Coutinho, the president of BNDES, said the bank had been so successful in creating national champions that it could now ease off. On October 14th Guido Mantega, the finance minister, said the treasury would cut transfers to BNDES over the next few years. But putting such good intentions into practice collides with other aims of the government. Though Caixa’s consumer loans make for bad risks, they are vote-winners for the president, Dilma Rousseff, who is seeking re-election next www.cers.com.br STF 2013 Inglês César Lira 5 year. And her plans to upgrade Brazil’s skimpy transport links by auctioning concessions to build and run infrastructure will stretch BNDES as never before. It is supposed to be funding around 70% of the costs—170 billion reais over the next five years
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